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Forex Forum Archive for 11/28/2016

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dc CB 22:30 GMT November 28, 2016
Not the Onion
Reply   
Scarecrow from the Wizard of Oz..."if I only had a brain".
Even rasing almost $7mil in 6 days won't take care of that short coming. LOL LMASOff
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Jill Stein has everything she needs to launch a presidential recount. She's got the cash, the grassroots fervor and the spotlight of an adoring media. But there's one thing she needs to overturn Trump's victory: a calendar.

Stein missed Pennsylvania's deadline to file for a voter-initiated recount. That blown deadline is a huge blow for Democrats who have pinned their hopes on recounts in the Keystone State, Michigan and Wisconsin.

"According to Wanda Murren, spokeswoman for the Pennsylvania Department of State," the Philadelphia Inquirer reported Monday, "the deadline for a voter-initiated recount was Monday, Nov. 21."

Pennsylvania State Department says Stein missed recount deadline

Livingston nh 22:11 GMT November 28, 2016
December

JM - it appears from John's posting that the market agrees with you//// I am merely pointing out that there is risk that the Fed balks - the potential objectors (Brainard cabal) are inflation doves so the NFP no matter how strong will not influence them - until last year the Fed only hiked in December when G'span was on his auto pilot 1/4 pt hikes (2004 and 2005) -- December is a tricky month for market moves (last year was expected but disruptive nevertheless)
In regard to 2017 expectations with this Fed the market waited in vain through 2015 and 2016 -- maybe 2017 will be different // whether the Fed hikes or not is a simple binary bet -- everybody is on one side, so is it REALLY all priced in ?? what do these folks do next - sell or add?

GVI Trading john bland 21:26 GMT November 28, 2016
Dollar pauses after Trump rally, backs off nearly 14-year high -- Reuters.com
Reply   
"The dollar fell on Monday along with U.S. Treasury yields, surrendering some gains from the sharp rally following Donald Trump's surprise victory in the U.S. presidential election.

The greenback had surged more than 4 percent against a basket of currencies in the wake of the Nov. 8 election, with investors expecting a Trump administration to bring an expansion of fiscal policy, boosting inflation and pushing up interest rates..."

Dollar pauses after Trump rally, backs off nearly 14-year high -- Reuters.com

GVI Trading john bland 20:56 GMT November 28, 2016
Tuesday Trading

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GVI Trading Statistical Market BIAS Indicators--
The Fed Funds Market Sentiment Barometer reflects current sentiment about a future change in Fed policy. Odds for one rate hike by yearend are: +104% from +100% late Friday.

PAR 20:53 GMT November 28, 2016
Ohio Shooting
Reply   
Somali terrorist ?

GVI Trading john bland 20:49 GMT November 28, 2016
Tuesday Trading
Reply   


WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:
29-Nov Tue
13:30 US- GDP
15:00 US- Consumer Confidence
30-Nov Wed
07:00 DE- Retail Sales
08:55 DE- Employment
10:00 EZ- flash HICP
13:15 US- ADP Jobs
13:30 CA- GDP
13:30 US- PCE Deflator
14:45 US- Chicago PMI
15:00 US- Pending Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude
18:00 US- Beige Book
1-Dec Thu
All Day- final Mfg PMIs
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
2-Dec Fri
13:30 CA/US Employment


Trading Themes--
  • Markets took risk-off posture to start the new week, equities fell and The USD fell sharply vs. the EUR before recovering during the U.S. session. The initial focus this week is the OPEC oil producers meeting on Wednesday. At this juncture it is still not known if they can come to an agreement to cut oil production. Negotiations continue to ebb and flow.

  • A key concern this week is the Italian Referendum next Sunday, and its potential impact on a number of distressed banks. The vote is on Sunday, November 4. If reforms are defeated as expected, the Renzi government is expected to fall and a new election called. Some see this vote as an indirect referendum on the Euro, it could weigh on the Euro as the week wears on.

  • Also a recount of the U.S. Presidential vote has created new uncertainties. U.S. Green Party candidate Jill Stein reportedly is planning to initiate Presidential election vote recounts in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Stein has no chance of winning any state. Now the Clinton campaign has said it would participate if one is initiated. Past, vote recounts have not uncovered discrepancies of a magnitude that would have reversed the Trump victory in those states. This is a long-shot effort that is being undertaken for other reasons such as publicity or fund-raising.

  • Friday sees U.S. employment data for the month of November. This is one of the items the FOMC scrutinizes carefully before making monetary policy decisions. Currently, the markets are running 100% odds that the central bank will raise its Fed Funds target by 25bps on December 14. Its hard to imagine the data could be so weak that the could postpone that expected (and signaled) rate hike.

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founder Global-View.com


CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mild Risk Off

GVI Trading john bland 20:45 GMT November 28, 2016
Commitment Of Traders Report
Reply   

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X+++++
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Net AUD and CAD COT Positions





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G+++++

Commitment of Trader Report Charts Trader Positions: CAD, AUD, Gold, Oil


Net Crude, Gold, S&P and 10-yr Positions







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GVI Forex Blog 20:31 GMT November 28, 2016
CHART POINTS: Free Forex Database
Reply   



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GVI Forex Blog 20:02 GMT November 28, 2016
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off
Reply   

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off

NY JM 17:36 GMT November 28, 2016
December

nh, Dec Fed rate hike is a done deal. Expectations for 2017 will drive the price action.

Livingston nh 17:28 GMT November 28, 2016
December
Reply   
seems levels in everything except stox are pretty similar to a year ago -- 2 more days of month end positioning -- EUR/USD spiked higher ahead of the December FED last year // what's changed? -- if the Bond Market has seen it's best days we should know before the FOMC - 10 yr yield @2.75 as part of yr end adjustment might be enough to put off a hike or oil below last year's price -- USD might give back a chunk if Fed loses nerve

GVI Forex Blog 17:25 GMT November 28, 2016
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off
Reply   

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off

GVI Trading Jay Meisler 17:11 GMT November 28, 2016
Monday Trading

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EURUSD 1.0575

Amazing Trader double top (as indicated on charts) against 1.0610 resistance (cited earlier and on charts) proved to be a good level.

PAR 16:57 GMT November 28, 2016
ECB DRAGHI=PONZI

Draghi ' s speech. Lies and half-truths to justify FINANCIAL REPRESSION .
Euro and financial markets seem to be fed up with FINANCIAL REPRESSION .

ECB is only serving its own interests and has become a soviet style state planning committee leading to disaster .

nw kw 16:47 GMT November 28, 2016
CRUDE

Saudi oil in cad mtl. go home for cad tar can get in?

PAR 16:42 GMT November 28, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

Don ' t worry , be happy . The only way is up. USA and their Saudi friends want higher oil prices .

Trump changed his mind once more and USA will continue to buy Saudi oil , if Saudi continue to buy US weapons .

LONDON SFH 16:01 GMT November 28, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

no...another 2 middle Eastern countries can't agree....stop the press

GVI Trading john bland 16:01 GMT November 28, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

WTI lower.

GVI Trading john bland 16:00 GMT November 28, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

OPEC delegates continue to negotiate. No resolution yet to Iraq-Iran differences on output.

>> TTN.com

LONDON SFH 15:52 GMT November 28, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:
Reply   
7 PEOPLE SHOT AT OHIO STATE CAMPUS. (active shooter)

GVI Trading john bland 15:52 GMT November 28, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

Draghi:
-- Italian debt sustainable
-- Italy growth gradually recovering. No room for complacency
-- Italy still vulnerable to shocks

-- Greece still serious concerns about sustainability of govt debt

GVI Trading Jay Meisler 15:29 GMT November 28, 2016
Monday Trading

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Amazing Trader signaled a risk of a shift in directional at around 1.0570 and rebound got close to 1.0600. Res at 1.0610 untouched.

I also indicated on GVI Forex a risk of a buy the rumor sell the fact reaction to Draghi and this has played out as well.

nw kw 15:27 GMT November 28, 2016
CRUDE

good for EM market / buying / some yen

nw kw 15:20 GMT November 28, 2016
CRUDE

Saud.i supported in profit from oil back month, report puled / look at conta.go

london red 15:01 GMT November 28, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

Germany wont be doing it as they dont have the room to under present leadership but victories by the right next year in Holland and France might see some spending. But those victories will be associated with more pressing euro negatives.

GVI Trading john bland 14:38 GMT November 28, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

Draghi again is asking for a fiscal stimulus.

GVI Trading john bland 14:37 GMT November 28, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

Draghi:
-- Monetary policy could be more effective if supported by "other policies".
-- economy continues to expand at moderate, steady pace

>> wire service

GVI Trading john bland 14:28 GMT November 28, 2016
Monday Trading

Mild Risk Off
DAX -73
DJ -78
SP -6

10-yr 2.330% -3.1bp

Kl Fs 14:22 GMT November 28, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

Looks like cable upside is done. Sell all bounces

london red 14:14 GMT November 28, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

euro. higher wkly high, higher daily high so far, but lrg wick on daily pressures downside. lrg 105 barrier shud hold into nfp. wknd italy ref pressure to downside. selling rallies safest strat. 10650-65 shud cap if range to persist.

GVI Trading john bland 14:04 GMT November 28, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:
Reply   
Draghi:
Euro-Area economy proving resilient this year

>> Source: TTN.com

GVI Forex Blog 13:59 GMT November 28, 2016
GVI Data Calendar for 29 November 2016
Reply   

November 28, 2016 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Tuesday, November 29, 2016.

  • Far East: JP- Retail Sales
  • Europe: No Major Data
  • North America: US- GDP, Case-Shiller, CB Sentiment, API Crude

WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:
28-Nov Mon
23:50 JP- Retail Sales
29-Nov Tue
13:30 US- GDP
15:00 US- Consumer Confidence
30-Nov Wed
07:00 DE- Retail Sales
08:55 DE- Employment
10:00 EZ- flash HICP
13:15 US- ADP Jobs
13:30 CA- GDP
13:30 US- PCE Deflator
14:45 US- Chicago PMI
15:00 US- Pending Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude
18:00 US- Beige Book
1-Dec Thu
All Day- final Mfg PMIs
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
2-Dec Fri
13:30 CA/US Employment

GVI Data Calendar for 29 November 2016

PAR 13:48 GMT November 28, 2016
CRUDE

All markets are trading like Saudi Arabia . Go up and down with oil , while for most world countries high crude is bad for the economy . Only Draghi thinks its positive , that s his GS background.


Lets hope we get nuclear fusion soon .

london red 13:24 GMT November 28, 2016
CRUDE

crude buy the dips after a drop and take profits when the rumours come. only way to play it since the summer.

PAR 13:07 GMT November 28, 2016
ECB DRAGHI=PONZI

Markets will be stable as ECB warns for market volatility and the ECB is always WRONG .

Livingston nh 12:56 GMT November 28, 2016
CRUDE

HOPE springs Eternal

PAR 12:54 GMT November 28, 2016
CRUDE

This time OPEC is serious . Iran will cooperate .

PAR 12:52 GMT November 28, 2016
ECB DRAGHI=PONZI

Euro down as markets awaits another Draghi show performance before the European parliament . Draghi speak = equals lower Euro

PAR 12:46 GMT November 28, 2016
CRUDE
Reply   
Rumors of Saudi Arabia - Iran deal sends oil prices SHARPLY HIGHER .

PAR 12:44 GMT November 28, 2016
Oil slip sends dollar, bond yields skidding -- Reuters.com

Oil trading higher as Saudi Arabia and Iran seem close to a deal to cut production . You can't believe nobody , especially not the media which talk the books of befriended traders .

GVI Trading 12:36 GMT November 28, 2016
Oil slip sends dollar, bond yields skidding -- Reuters.com
Reply   
"The dollar saw its biggest drop in almost a month on Monday as a bashing for oil prices on doubts about an OPEC output cut this week left investors reversing "Trumpflation" trades that have gripped markets since the U.S. election.

Crude prices and Europe's main stock markets were down over 1 percent in early European trading as Italian shares also took a fresh tumble ahead of its referendum on constitutional change this Sunday.

Oil's fall added to a 3.5 percent plunge on Friday when it emerged that Saudi Arabia would not join talks with non-OPEC producers on potential supply cuts..."

Oil slip sends dollar, bond yields skidding -- Reuters.com

GVI Trading Jay Meisler 11:56 GMT November 28, 2016
Amazing Trader Meeting
Reply   

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The coming week is filled with key events, including month end, the OPEC meeting and the US jobs report, so plenty of opportunities for trading. See our outlook/strategies for Monday and the week ahead.

All are invited to attend -

Daily meeting starts promptly at

Monday, November 28

07:00 - 07:30 EST (12:00 - 12:30 GMT).

Meeting url:

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london red 11:53 GMT November 28, 2016
ECB DRAGHI=PONZI

euro has made a higher wkly high so can still move higher as long as hourly close holds c. 10580. there is a danger we go up and back down into the nfp and a solid nfp is going to cement euro fate into italy ref weekend.

PAR 11:48 GMT November 28, 2016
ECB DRAGHI=PONZI
Reply   
Summary of Draghi s speech . LOL

The European situation is bad , very bad .

Without ECB European economy can't function .

Negative rates are good for ECB , bad for everybody else . So more negative rates for longer .

QE is there to help some friends not to help the economy . So more QE for longer.


RULES DON'T APPLY

Amman wfakhoury 11:19 GMT November 28, 2016
GBPUSD 12490
Reply   
GBPUSD MAG 12490 will be reached again.
with possibility to decline to 12398.

Buy and add buy if decline.


The only one in the world who confirms the next level


GVI Trading john bland 11:06 GMT November 28, 2016
Monday Trading

DAX -83
DJ -56
SP -7

10-yr 2.33% -3.1bp

GVI Trading john bland 10:35 GMT November 28, 2016
Monday Trading

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Amazing Trader GBPUSD charts updated on your systems

london red 10:16 GMT November 28, 2016
cable

still, youd expect them to btd as mkt still massive short and needs a blow out topside before can move lower. so far friday low safe further sup at 12380 and 12350.

london red 10:14 GMT November 28, 2016
cable

cable hit 61.8% of 123/127 today and saw a rejection there plus 10y spread moved sharply in favour of sterling just now.

kl shawn 09:53 GMT November 28, 2016
cable
Reply   
wtf is going on with cable? any news?

GVI Trading john bland 09:42 GMT November 28, 2016
Monday Trading

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Amazing Trader EURUSD charts updated on your systems

GVI Trading john bland 09:16 GMT November 28, 2016
Monday Trading


WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:
28-Nov Mon
23:50 JP- Retail Sales
29-Nov Tue
13:30 US- GDP
15:00 US- Consumer Confidence
30-Nov Wed
07:00 DE- Retail Sales
08:55 DE- Employment
10:00 EZ- flash HICP
13:15 US- ADP Jobs
13:30 CA- GDP
13:30 US- PCE Deflator
14:45 US- Chicago PMI
15:00 US- Pending Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude
18:00 US- Beige Book
1-Dec Thu
All Day- final Mfg PMIs
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
2-Dec Fri
13:30 CA/US Employment


Trading Themes--
  • Markets are taking a risk-off posture to start the new week as the U.S. returns from its long Thanksgiving holiday break. Traders will be hitting the ground running amid concerns about the Italian Referendum next Sunday, and its potential impact on a number of distressed banks. Also a recount of the U.S. Presidential vote is creating new uncertainties. U.S. employment data are slated as well.

  • The Italian Constitutional Referendum is on Sunday, November 4. If the reforms are defeated, as expected, the current Renzi government is expected to fall and a new election called. Some see this possible election as an indirect referendum on the Euro. The approaching weekend vote could weigh on the Euro as the week wears on.

  • U.S. Minority Green Party candidate Jill Stein reportedly is planning to initiate Presidential election vote recounts in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. She has no chance of winning these states. Now the Clinton campaign has said it would participate if a recount is initiated "in order to ensure the process proceeds in a manner that is fair to all sides".

  • In the past, vote recounts typically have not uncovered discrepancies of a magnitude that would have reversed the vote count in these states. In other words, this is either a long-shot effort or it is being undertaken for other reasons e.g. publicity or fund-raising.

  • Nevertheless, there is a chance that the markets might react (negatively for USD) to these new uncertainties. At this juncture, I do not think the remote pssibility of a Clinton presidency would be viewed as a positive any longer.

  • The week ahead also sees U.S. employment data for the month of November. This is one of the items the FOMC scrutinizes carefully before making monetary policy decisions. Currently, the markets are running 100% odds that the central bank will raise its Fed Funds target by 25bps on December 14. Its hard to imagine the data could be so weak that the could postpone that expected (and signaled) rate hike.

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founder Global-View.com


CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mild Risk Off

GVI Forex Blog 08:59 GMT November 28, 2016
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off
Reply   

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off

PAR 08:56 GMT November 28, 2016
The next line of attack, coming into the NEWZ

Rules Don't Aply

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a_QiAunKtxo

Haifa ac 06:38 GMT November 28, 2016
The next line of attack, coming into the NEWZ

The target of the democratic party with the current shenanigans and breaking their previous agreement with the Trump organization is one:
To FIXATE in the mind of the American Public that Trump is NOT a worthy (or legitimate) president.
Let us hope that this winner (Trump is one of the biggest winners in history!!) will put enough eggs on the ugly face of the democrats that we won't see them for a long while.

Sydney ACC 05:01 GMT November 28, 2016
Monday Trading

The Treasury announced in October 2001 that -- after four years of rising budget surpluses -- it would suspend issuing 30-year bonds.

In January 2002, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office was forecasting that the deficit would top out that year at $21 billion and that the 10-year surplus would total $1.6 trillion.

But forecasted surpluses turned into deficits, which crested in 2004 at $412 billion.

In 2005 Treasury reintroduced the long bond.

President George W Bush added the second greatest amount to the debt, at $5.849 trillion. That was a 101 percent increase to the debt. It was $5.8 trillion on September 30, 2001.

Bill Clinton added $1.396 trillion to debt.

George H W Bush added USD 1.554 billion to debt.

Ronald Reagan added USSD 1.86 trillion

Calvin Coolidge was the last president to reduce debt.

Israel Dil 02:12 GMT November 28, 2016
TRUMP
Reply   
1. good lesson to everyone, we all witness what happens when someone decided to become a president because of the wrong reasons.

2. also stupid dumbs can become US presidents

3. lots of worries may float now about Trump's mental understanding regarding his current position.

off the politically correct, cut the bullsh!t, it's time for TRUMP to realize he is elected for presidency and he must stop with his baby like tweets and comments. get busy with the issues you were elected to solve and make better.

MV yg10 02:04 GMT November 28, 2016
Monday Trading

>since Bill hit the scene as President in 92 has become a national nightmare.

So you consider that unemployment falling from 7.3% (Jan 1993) to 3.8 (Jan 2001) and decrease of Debt/GDP ratio by 10% during this period a national nightmare. I really do not want to know what do you suppose to be a good for nation.

Israel Dil 02:02 GMT November 28, 2016
USD/JPY - xxx/JPY
Reply   
111.80 used to take some profits and to turn the whole positions into risk free now...

Livingston nh 00:26 GMT November 28, 2016
OPEC
Reply   
interested in comments about

1. OPEC agreement likelihood
2. Stronger USD effect on oil price
3. Peak supply vs Peak demand

I use a simple "barrels of oil to buy a Mercedes 300 class" test of price - dollar is not done with OPEC yet

Livingston nh 00:11 GMT November 28, 2016
The next line of attack, coming into the NEWZ

Last comment - the current whine is about Pres elect Trump's conflicts of interest -- the mainstream media is AGAIN on this like flies on s--ar // would Clinton have less or more conflicts? I have not seen or heard this issue addressed
Instead the focus is on RECOUNT -- it deflects attention from the conflicts issue - maybe the MSM should do a simple "compare and contrast" essay

 




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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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