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Forex Forum Archive for 11/30/2016

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dc CB 23:56 GMT November 30, 2016
Oil

ARG
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CyhKajkUsAE3huY.jpg

Quote O the day:

It's so easy for your Government to lie to you – it's a good thing we elected a guy who can really clean up all that stuff, right?

That's right, I will risk having my post censored because you need to be WARNED! We have not, since the Harding Administration, had such a collection of self-serving cronies being put in charge of our Government and, from January 20th forward, you will not be able to trust ANYTHING you hear out of Washington, including these market-moving reports. They can't fool all of the people all of the time if some of us are willing to do our homework and that's going to be a full-time job starting next year!
Philstockworld

Livingston nh 23:51 GMT November 30, 2016
Oil

All the usual suspects are applauding the "unprecedented" spirit of Cooperation w/i OPEC (we're back) - end of the month adjustments saw high volume on NYSE with end of the day swoon -- 10 yr Treasury tried a few times to crack 2.39 but failed - the late day swoon in STOX might have been helped along by the oil move and treasurys close near 2.39

IF stox are starting to be bothered by higher interest rates we should know by early next week (after NFP) -- oil chart looks like a H&S but maybe the cheerleaders can go one more time // so beating the dead horse again -- NFP is only a Fed factor if it's weak and today's PCE leaves the Inflation doves cooing (especially if they throw in the declining core CPI of the past few months) -- a little bit of Treasury spice above 2.5% w/ a strengthening USD might start to move convert some of the Fed's True Believers into Doubters

Buckle Up!

GVI Forex Blog 22:37 GMT November 30, 2016
BREAKING NEWS: Australian PMI Bounces Back
Reply   
Australian November PMI improves.



BREAKING NEWS: Australian PMI Bounces Back

GVI Trading john bland 22:30 GMT November 30, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

Australia PMI November 2016





Earlier News ALERT
54.2 vs. n/a exp. vs. 50.9 prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer

dc CB 22:00 GMT November 30, 2016
Oil

john
you cud be living in Alaska

another guy to watch
Ryan MaueVerified account
@RyanMaue

That's with no Sun for many months

dc CB 21:51 GMT November 30, 2016
Oil

Do I have enough wood cut stacked and DRIED?

Looking toward an ICE winter. being on that Line. BeenThere and it was a PAIN.

Weatherbell.com
Joe(pump that iron)Bastardi

formerly Accuweather...then partnered and went on

GVI Trading john bland 21:45 GMT November 30, 2016
Oil

CB- not what I wanted to see. Looks like a polar vortex?

dc CB 21:23 GMT November 30, 2016
Oil

NattyGas
Hello Dec....Uff Da

EuroModel

dc CB 21:09 GMT November 30, 2016
Oil

So it begins: Mexico says it is not planning any more crude output cuts in 2017: BBG

That Rooskie fakeneews site: ZH

dc CB 20:49 GMT November 30, 2016
GOLD

Gold v Silver
the latter is the better bet. watch copper to gage silver's industrial component, which has a use that is destructive.
So it's beyond PM, and has the potential to be actually Precious to the economy. It has a USE and is Used Up. Think back in the day when photography depended on the supply of silver and the fortunes of Kodak effected the price.

GVI Trading john bland 20:43 GMT November 30, 2016
Thursday Trade

Register for the Amazing Trader

1.


GVI Trading Statistical Market BIAS Indicators--
The Fed Funds Market Sentiment Barometer reflects current sentiment about a future change in Fed policy. Odds for one rate hike by yearend are: +100% from +100% late Tuesday.

GVI Trading john bland 20:36 GMT November 30, 2016
Thursday Trade
Reply   


WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:
1-Dec Thu
All Day- final Mfg PMIs
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
2-Dec Fri
13:30 CA/US Employment


Trading Themes--
  • The OPEC Ministers meeting wound up as expected with production reduced by 1.4mn BPD to 32.5mn bpd. The conventional wisdom is that excess supply will be worked down over the next year due to increased demand and and support crude prices at somewhere around the $50 level. Oil prices are up roughly 10% on the day.

  • U.S. November employment data is the next major economic event (Friday). ADP private payroll data Wednesday suggested that the upcoming report could be solid. Keep in mind that the ADP data are not always a reliable indicator. Monthly Job data are one of the key items the FOMC scrutinizes before making monetary policy decisions. Markets place 100% odds on a 25bp Fed Funds target increase on December 14.

  • The Italian Referendum next Sunday, December 4 remains a cause for concern. If this constitutional reform is defeated, the Renzi government might fall and an election called. Some feel this is an indirect Euro referendum. The ECB has indicated it has the capacity to buy Italian government bonds temporarily if needed.

  • The U.S. Presidential vote recount is another uncertainty. U.S. Green Party candidate Jill Stein, with Clinton help, is supporting recounts in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Odds do not favor reversal of the Trump victory. Some feel Stein is doing this for personal reasons.

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founder Global-View.com

GVI Forex Blog 20:31 GMT November 30, 2016
CHART POINTS: Free Forex Database
Reply   



Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format

CHART POINTS: Free Forex Database

GVI Forex Blog 20:13 GMT November 30, 2016
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Markets
Reply   

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Markets

GVI Trading john bland 19:04 GMT November 30, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

not exactly a ringing endorsement, but this is old news.

GVI Trading john bland 19:02 GMT November 30, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

U.S. Fed Beige Book

U.S. Data Charts




NEWS ALERT
7 of 12 districts Economy contiued to expand at modest to moderate growth.

Strong dollar is a headwind



TTN: Live News Special Offer

Mtl JP 18:48 GMT November 30, 2016
US Stocks

I sit Outside The Circle

PAR 18:27 GMT November 30, 2016
US Stocks

Mtl . What you say depends on where you sit .

PAR 18:22 GMT November 30, 2016
GOLD
Reply   
Down sharply on fears of higher interest rates worldwide .

Mtl JP 18:20 GMT November 30, 2016
US Stocks

did I not see a trade idea that

Goldman Raises S&P Target To 2,400 On "Trump Hope" ??

london red 18:06 GMT November 30, 2016
US Stocks

most importantly he is our guy.
gs is the house so cannot lose.

euro. tenkan and 10dma within a whisker of each by 10603. closing at/abv there today will be a result for euro and may see london am rally, which shud be faded as 4 yards 106 ex tom.

dc CB 17:59 GMT November 30, 2016
US Stocks

PAR
GS is BAAAAAAAACCCCCCCKKKK
they'll make up those bad bets on Hillary...they prob bet against her in another acct. LOL

A msg from Hank- Shorts Killer - Paulson

PAR 17:54 GMT November 30, 2016
US Stocks

Goldman Sachs up 3.5% , oil stocks up sharply pushing DOW to another Record close .

Consumer stocks down . What you spent on oil can't be spent on phones .

London AzaForex 17:41 GMT November 30, 2016
Strategy and research analyst on currency pair AUDJPY 11-30-
Reply   


Sell AUDJPY
Entry: Target: Stop:

Strategy and research analyst on currency pair AUDJPY 11-30-2016 by AzaForex forex broker

dc CB 17:40 GMT November 30, 2016
Oil
Reply   
remember, according to the WaPost, this is FakeNews from a designated Russian Propaganda website---ZeroHedge ...so take this with a dose of caution (SARCASM)
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

more notable is that if one compares the OPEC production level per the "deal" relative to January output, is that total production appears to be higher by over 800,000 barrels. Keep in mind that both Libya and Nigeria are set to boost production higher, potentially to 1mmb/d and 2mm/d respectively, and expanding total OPEC production back over 33mmbpd in just a few months. This happens at a time of modest seasonal production reduction by the Saudis and modest cuts by other members, while the exempt nations are ramping up.

One wonders how long until the market does this math and realizes that basically the strategy since February was to jawbone prices higher, ramp up throughout and then adjust to seasonal levels in January 2017 and call it a cut?

OPEC Production Cut Table, And It Has An "Error"

GVI Forex Blog 17:30 GMT November 30, 2016
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-On
Reply   

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-On

dc CB 17:30 GMT November 30, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

The latest just released Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit from the New York Fed
Total household debt rose $63 billion in the quarter to $12.35 trillion, driven by a $32 billion increase in auto loans, which also hit a record high of $1.14 trillion. 3.6% of auto loans were 90 or more days delinquent...................................

Conclusion:
The data suggest some notable deterioration in the performance of subprime auto loans. This translates into a large number of households, with roughly six million individuals at least ninety days late on their auto loan payments.

london red 17:17 GMT November 30, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

Al, high rates some will be killed others not. as long as the right ones come out on top any scenario is poss. but as i say i dont like debt, dont have dont hold. cash is king.

PAR 17:16 GMT November 30, 2016
US Stocks
Reply   
Goldman Sachs and energy the big winners .

PAR 17:11 GMT November 30, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

How is that new Zimbabwean currency doing ?

Dillon AL 17:10 GMT November 30, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

maybe bargains but consider this if people cannot service debt...... do I really need to go on. in reality I am on record that headline rates for the US are not going back above 3% in our lifetime. Extrapolate a curve and voila. This is the new normal. Until we have some form of wholesale forgiveness/repudiation/mass default of debt then my scenario holds water and yours does not. Just saying

london red 17:07 GMT November 30, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

re debt those that dont have nor hold any, can profit at 0-10% its all good, well not for those on either side.

Mtl JP 17:03 GMT November 30, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

ok Al, so this is going academic:
how would a killed global economy look like ?
all I see is would-be bargains

PAR 17:02 GMT November 30, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

Imho it benefited nobody . It was just an economist's wet dream and politicians did nothing to stop the madness . Politicians are now facing the anger of the people over the Financial Repression from the last 3 years .

Dillon AL 17:00 GMT November 30, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

Actually 6%+ would kill the global economy. You only have to work the math on the amount of outstanding debt

SaaR KaL 16:59 GMT November 30, 2016
NZDUSD ----> all next year south
Reply   
I expect NZDUSD near 0.52 in a year

london red 16:58 GMT November 30, 2016
EURO BUND

bunds will prob be sought after on friday.
yen barrier at 115. today will hold but likely to see 115-116 early december then correct. so poss thursday friday then correction monday on italy/austria, tho correction will likely be bought. eurjpy likely to do best on mon after initial dip on bad elections.

Livingston nh 16:57 GMT November 30, 2016
CRUDE

PAR - For the winter this "cut" won't be in effect - much also depends on the willingness of non-OPEC to pitch in - the "cut" barely reduces the increased production of the past few months -- we'll see

Mtl JP 16:56 GMT November 30, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

GVI Trading john bland 14:07 Dream on. 10% would kill the global economy.
-
Beyond an opinion , you do not know that.
What we both do know is that near/sub/zero rate has NOT benefited me.

PAR 16:46 GMT November 30, 2016
CRUDE
Reply   
What does a 10% rise in crude prices mean for the European consumer and the European economy . Imho not good news before along cold winter .

houston mw 16:33 GMT November 30, 2016
EURO BUND

7/15 close 2.187 not 2.373
hi print for that month was 2.47

GVI Forex Blog 16:32 GMT November 30, 2016
GVI Data Calendar for 1 December 2016
Reply   

November 30, 2016 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Thursday, December 1, 2016.

  • Far East: AU- Retail Sales, PMI, CN/JP- PMIs
  • Europe: CH/EZ/GB Mfg PMIs
  • North America: US- Weekly Jobless, Mfg PMIs, Construction Spending, Nat Gas, CA- PMI

WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:
1-Dec Thu
All Day- final Mfg PMIs
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
2-Dec Fri
13:30 CA/US Employment

GVI Data Calendar for 1 December 2016

PAR 16:30 GMT November 30, 2016
EURO BUND

Panic in Frankfurt .

london red 16:28 GMT November 30, 2016
EURO BUND

fade 2.5 on the 10 if seen no chance breaks today

houston mw 16:25 GMT November 30, 2016
EURO BUND

10yr

monthly closing hi on 7/15 2.373
spike hi of 2.50 on 6/15
current 2.4

can it squeeze another 10bps?

Mtl JP 16:24 GMT November 30, 2016
Wednesday Trading

Mtl JP 15:13 GMT 11/30/2016
at risk: 1.0565 previous 3x low - euro

-
poof ! gone n done
--
GBP = SellonRallies

PAR 16:20 GMT November 30, 2016
EURO BUND
Reply   
Euro bund collapses . Lets hope DB derivatives are ok . What is Mario going to do now ?

Mtl JP 16:17 GMT November 30, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

ahh.. ehhh.. ahhh
LOL

opec live

Livingston nh 16:12 GMT November 30, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

The OPEC parties must be desperate to just announce a "deal", any deal -- long negotiations make BAD deals because they tend to have a short shelf life

PAR 16:09 GMT November 30, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

Looks like ECB buying Italian bonds and selling German bunds to get Renzi to the YES vote . It may work .

SaaR KaL 16:05 GMT November 30, 2016
Cable Dec Tgt
Reply   
Cable Tgt 1.3450 for now
GBPNZD tgt 1.92
GBPCHF 1.39

Mtl JP 16:04 GMT November 30, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

red ... I need to clone your "nose"

london red 16:03 GMT November 30, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

usd demand shud come back on now.

Mtl JP 16:03 GMT November 30, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

tks red !
loading some gbp short 1.2505 and 10

london red 16:00 GMT November 30, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

fix done sterling demand shud ebb

Mtl JP 15:59 GMT November 30, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

btw... next week could be good opportunity to trade on useful cretin at BoC:
07/12/16 15:00 A CA BOC Rates 0.50% 0.50%

Mtl JP 15:57 GMT November 30, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

and maybe usdcad goes to 1.37/1.40

SaaR KaL 15:54 GMT November 30, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

My Dec TGT is 41 for Oil

dc CB 15:44 GMT November 30, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

OPEC - that agreement will mean something has negated a normal reaction to the glut. Market trading on HOPE

API

Crude -717k (+577k exp)
Cushing +2.3mm (+26k exp) - biggest since Mar 2015
Gasoline +3.36mm (+1.19mm exp) - biggest since Jan 2016
Distillates +2.24mm (+1.45mm exp) - biggest since Sept 2016

DOE

Crude -884k (+577k exp)
Cushing +2.419mm (+26k exp) - biggest since Mar 2015
Gasoline +2.097mm (+1.19mm exp)
Distillates +4.957mm (+1.45mm exp) - biggest since Jan 2016

dc CB 15:37 GMT November 30, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

CUSHING STOCKS +2.42M TO 61.5M BARRELS

london red 15:37 GMT November 30, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

10y may have unfinished biz (gap) at 235.

GVI Trading john bland 15:32 GMT November 30, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

US EIA Weekly Inventories

U.S. Data Charts






NEWS ALERT
Crude Oil: -0.900 vs. +0.900 exp vs. -1.300 prev.
Distillates: +5.000 vs. +1.100 exp vs. -0.300 prev.
Gasoline: +2.100 vs. +1.300 exp vs. +0.300 prev.



Weekly Petroleum Status Report



TTN: Live News Special Offer

Mtl JP 15:29 GMT November 30, 2016
Wednesday Trading



nh Mtl JP 14:02 GMT 11/30/2016
usdcad "knows"
1.3350 - me thinks - is a gift
x fingers


hope u r chasing some posipips into your account !!

Livingston nh 15:24 GMT November 30, 2016
Wednesday Trading

Appears that wkly oil stats will be out before OPEC "deal" -- see if some folks get chased out of positions

GVI Trading john bland 15:13 GMT November 30, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

Atlanta Fed GDPNow 4Q16 2.40% vs. 3.60% on Nov 23

>>TTN.com

Mtl JP 15:13 GMT November 30, 2016
Wednesday Trading

at risk: 1.0565 previous 3x low - euro

GVI Forex Blog 15:07 GMT November 30, 2016
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Pending Homes Sales Flat
Reply   
Pending Homes Sales up slightly. Suggest flat Existing Homes sales.

BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Pending Homes Sales Flat

PAR 15:02 GMT November 30, 2016
TRUMPFLATION is coming

Higher oil prices combined with negative interest rates a huge tax on the european consumer .

A fatal cocktail leading to more populism .

GVI Trading john bland 15:00 GMT November 30, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

U.S. Pending Homes Sales October 2016

U.S. Data Charts




NEWS ALERT

+0.10% vs. +0.40% exp. vs. +1.50% (r +1.40%) prev.
RELEASE: Pending Home Sales


TTN: Live News Special Offer

PAR 14:55 GMT November 30, 2016
TRUMPFLATION is coming

Airlines stock getting smashed . Higher crude is not good for everybody . One's gains is another's pain .

london red 14:52 GMT November 30, 2016
TRUMPFLATION is coming

*cant
euro 70-80 needs to break. but huge 4 yard 106 expiry tom also more friday so 70-80 will be tough.

london red 14:51 GMT November 30, 2016
TRUMPFLATION is coming

PAR it will be ur pension fund holding when the music stops. they can all sell and the buck usually stops with dinosaur pension funds.

GVI Trading john bland 14:50 GMT November 30, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

Top Trump economic Advisors:
-- threat of tariffs will be last resort.

>>TTN.com

GVI Trading john bland 14:45 GMT November 30, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

Chicago PMI November 2016

U.S. Data Charts




NEWS ALERT
57.6 vs. 52.0 exp. vs. 50.6 prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Trading Jay Meisler 14:43 GMT November 30, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

Chatter that Chi PMI is well above the consensus forecast

PAR 14:32 GMT November 30, 2016
TRUMPFLATION is coming
Reply   
Everyone knows it. It means higher interest rates in the U.S. It means the end of QE, negative and zero interest rates in Europe and Japan. It potentially means tariffs that will make prices of goods imported into the U.S. more expensive. And, if president elect Donald Trump gets his fiscal stimulus pass the deficit hawks in congress, it means more money for the economy which could lead to wage inflation. No American worker will complain about that.

But what do fixed income investors do now? Especially after sitting on lousy yielding U.S. Treasury bonds for years? Imagine those guys in Europe, holding negative yielding debt. How on Earth do you sell

http://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2016/11/28/how-to-prepare-your-portfolio-for-trumpflation/#7b11b82f367b

GVI Trading john bland 14:26 GMT November 30, 2016
Wednesday Trading

NOTE: Chicago PMI comes out a few minutes early to subscribers

Mtl JP 14:24 GMT November 30, 2016
Wednesday Trading

U think it un-likely that US Chicago PMI will present an "A" grade price reaction opportunity

15 minutes later the OPEC presser might
same time as pending house sales release, probably of negligible consequence to fx prices

GVI Trading Jay Meisler 14:19 GMT November 30, 2016
Wednesday Trading

For those who missed our meeting:

Register for the Amazing Trader

1.


For those who attended our meeting, EURUSD 1.06 just traded as I indicated was the risk after failing to establish 1.0650+. Higher bond yields boosting the dollar.

Mtl JP 14:15 GMT November 30, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

higher yields are primarily supportive of bank stocks
naturally folks financing some "better economic data" get paid first

GVI Trading john bland 14:12 GMT November 30, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

Better economic data are supportive of equities. You know that!

SaaR KaL 14:11 GMT November 30, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

USDCAD easy tgt 1.3770

Mtl JP 14:10 GMT November 30, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

how are rising yields supportive of equities ?

GVI Trading john bland 14:07 GMT November 30, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

Dream on. 10% would kill the global economy.

Mtl JP 14:06 GMT November 30, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

I dream of 10% interest
I have some catching up .... for the last 8+ yrs lol

GVI Trading john bland 14:02 GMT November 30, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

10.-yr 2.377% +7.3bp yields rising after U.S. data today. Supportive of USD and equities.

Mtl JP 14:02 GMT November 30, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

usdcad "knows"
1.3350 - me thinks - is a gift
x fingers

Livingston nh 13:58 GMT November 30, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

Watch the price of oil before any official or no-official news --
somebody always knows

Mtl JP 13:56 GMT November 30, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

the opec cartel is alleged to have a press conf at 15gmt
as per my earlier refernce post:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/when-will-opec-make-its-decision-on-oil-2016-11-29?siteid=bigcharts&dist=bigcharts

GVI Trading john bland 13:46 GMT November 30, 2016
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. PCE Deflator Steady

PCE Deflator flat.

GVI Trading john bland 13:45 GMT November 30, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

REMINDER: OPEC headline from earlier was not official. Still waiting for additional confirmation.

GVI Forex Blog 13:40 GMT November 30, 2016
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. PCE Deflator Steady
Reply   
U.S. Core PCE Deflator as expected at 1.70%. Fed Targets PCE Deflator.

BREAKING NEWS: U.S. PCE Deflator Steady

london red 13:39 GMT November 30, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

watch 10y hourly close poss double wick/tail dep on tick or yield

GVI Trading john bland 13:35 GMT November 30, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

Canada: GDP September 2016





ALERT
m/m +0.30% vs. +0.10% exp. vs. +0.20% prev.



TTN: Live News Special Offer

london red 13:32 GMT November 30, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

some softness in data euro reacting to it. feels like sup into fix

GVI Trading john bland 13:31 GMT November 30, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

U.S. Personal Income/PCE Deflator October 2016

U.S. Data Charts




ALERT
Personal Income +0.60% vs. +0.40% exp v +0.30% prev.
PCE Defl +1.70% vs. +1.70% exp. vs. +1.70% prev.


RELEASE: Personal Income



TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Trading john bland 13:29 GMT November 30, 2016
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. ADP Payrolls Data Beat

Note prior ADP daya revised down. Average the last two months and you get +167K.

GVI Forex Blog 13:25 GMT November 30, 2016
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. ADP Payrolls Data Beat
Reply   
ADP beats expectations.

U.S. Data Charts

Click on chart for 15-yr history


BREAKING NEWS: U.S. ADP Payrolls Data Beat

GVI Trading john bland 13:21 GMT November 30, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

OPEC deal would be in line with expectations. WTI about flat on the report

london red 13:20 GMT November 30, 2016
Wednesday Trading

they will be running a solid shrt euro into nfp now so absolutelky fade any rallies. euro sup 10600/10 if taken 10570/80. while 10600/10 holds they can still flip this with month end, but below there we are done.

SaaR KaL 13:20 GMT November 30, 2016
Bye Bye EURUSD...Hello Cable
Reply   
Expecting EURUSD Near 1.03 next week
Cable near 1.33

GVI Trading john bland 13:19 GMT November 30, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

OPEC cut -1.2mn to 32.5mn bbd
-- unnamed OPEC source

TTH.com


Mtl JP 13:17 GMT November 30, 2016
Wednesday Trading

for date and headlines addicts plenty to trade on:
- data,
- opec cretins
- month-end
- fed cretins' yak

GVI Trading john bland 13:15 GMT November 30, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

U.S. ADP Private Employment November 2016

U.S. Data Charts




ALERT
+216K vs. +160K exp. vs. +147K (r +119K) prev.


RELEASE: ADP National Employment Report®



TTN: Live News Special Offer

PAR 13:01 GMT November 30, 2016
EURO

European economy doing rather well. Biggest problem are NEGATIVE INTEREST RATES ( making people save more instead of spend ) and QE (distorting the bond markets and making bad capital allocation )

london red 12:59 GMT November 30, 2016
Wednesday Trading

judging by the reaction (selling) to eurgbp rebound earlier, i wouldnt be surprised to see strng sterling demand into the fix today.

SaaR KaL 12:58 GMT November 30, 2016
Longs and shorts
Reply   
Started Shorts AUDUSD and EURGBP
Just shorted Oil
Longs on Cable and GBPUSD

Livingston nh 12:56 GMT November 30, 2016
Wednesday Trading

NOK, CAD and MXN have followed the headlines on OPEC -- a disappointment could see a quick reversal

PAR 12:50 GMT November 30, 2016
TURKEY - EU member in spe
Reply   
Turkey's armed forces are not just in Syria to battle ISIS and al-Qaeda terrorists, but are on a mission to overthrow the Syrian regime. "We entered there to end the rule of the tyrant al-Assad who terrorizes with state terror," said President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, insisting his forces weren't in Syria for "any other reason." Turkish troops entered the country on Aug. 24, launching operation Euphrates Shield.

GVI Trading john bland 12:49 GMT November 30, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

nh- good point. I agree 100%. At some point they will figure out its different this time.

Israel Dil 12:45 GMT November 30, 2016
EURO

par

the opposite, it's totally the opposite. the mafia needs the poor to get money out the bank.

PAR 12:36 GMT November 30, 2016
EURO

Israel . the Italian poor need the Mafia to survive and to get their money back from the banks .

Livingston nh 12:36 GMT November 30, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

re: mortgage market - folks have been conditioned to expect a blip in rates to fade and lower rates to resume, so THEY wait for a better deal -- IF it becomes apparent that lower rates will not be on offer again (i.e., the cycle has turned) there will be a scramble to lock in and/or close before rates jump // nobody ever asked to lock in a rate when they thought the trend was lower -- maybe it's different this time

Israel Dil 12:34 GMT November 30, 2016
EURO

bit more than month ago I advised to enter short real estate... it works as clockwork

LONDON SFH 12:34 GMT November 30, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

US bonds outperforming when the US is not in doesn't seem signifciant to me...esp when it is such a small move. So much has been made of the supposed index move from stocks into bonds for month end that it seems everyone just got caught long again

PAR 12:31 GMT November 30, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

Looks like Bloomberg and Reuters are censoring bad news .

Not a word about US twin deficits , not a word about mortgage figures.

Today Cheer leading the OPEC deal while yesterday stating a deal was unlikely .

Mama mia . Who to trust .

london red 12:29 GMT November 30, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

10y spreads hv moved in favour of usd over last few hours. 10y tapping 2.35 again.
as yest will need to see if usd can hold onto data gains. yest was unable to after initial spike.

LONDON SFH 12:27 GMT November 30, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

Huge amt of talk about big shift of funds from stocks into bonds to be done....so think everyone was long bonds into it... Now getting hit

GVI Trading john bland 12:26 GMT November 30, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

"Trump Effect" (via higher interest rates)

GVI Trading john bland 12:25 GMT November 30, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

Weekly Mortgages (-9.4% vs +5.5%)

Refi's -16.2% vs. -3.1%
Purchases -0.20% vs. +15.2%

TTN.com

PAR 12:19 GMT November 30, 2016
EURO

US mortgage market collapses . Nobody seems to notice .

Israel Dil 12:16 GMT November 30, 2016
EURO

par

are you aware that all anti-mafia movements calling to vote no?

london red 12:15 GMT November 30, 2016
EURO

mkt frontrunning adp sup 106/10610

PAR 11:59 GMT November 30, 2016
EURO

Financial Repression leading to populism as in the 1930 's .

Euro zone inflation rate hits highest since April 2014 .

When will the craziness of Negative Rates and QE stop ?

PAR 11:48 GMT November 30, 2016
Wednesday Trading

As usual ECB did a lot of scaremongering before the Italian referendum as they did with Deflation,Greece, Brexit , Trump .

Italian referendum is nothing to be afraid of, YES or NO . It will change nothing it is just -paroles ,paroles,paroles .

GVI Trading Jay Meisler 11:45 GMT November 30, 2016
Amazing Trader Meeting
Reply   

Register for the Amazing Trader

1.


Wednesday is a key events day with month end, the OPEC meeting and a slew of economic data. See our outlook for the day and for what will be an active rest of the week.

All are invited to attend -

Daily meeting starts promptly at

Wednesday, November 30

07:00 - 07:30 EST (12:00 - 12:30 GMT).

Meeting url:

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london red 11:35 GMT November 30, 2016
Wednesday Trading

looks holding onto gains, fib by 10704 looks good in terms of selling a spike. v lrg expiries 10550 and 106 tom and friday. with italy/austria wknd shud be a draw.

london red 11:25 GMT November 30, 2016
Wednesday Trading

eurgbp rs 8594/97 prev high and fib. lastwks high 8639 and ahead of that 34/35 res shud be a bridge too far. ahead of 8600 worth a fade.

london red 11:17 GMT November 30, 2016
Wednesday Trading

eurgbp month end demand john. can take place on last days of month and first couple of days of following.

GVI Trading john bland 11:12 GMT November 30, 2016
Wednesday Trading

Equities Risk On
DAX +23
DJ +24
SP +3

10-yr 2.332% +2.8bp

PAR 11:01 GMT November 30, 2016
US YIELDS
Reply   
Close to making new highs for the year on strong US economy and sharply rising commodity prices .

GVI Trading john bland 10:58 GMT November 30, 2016
Wednesday Trading

OPEC Press Conference is scheduled for 15:00 GMT (10:00 EST). Usually their decision will have been leaked out before that time.

GVI Trading john bland 10:55 GMT November 30, 2016
Wednesday Trading

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Amazing Trader GBPUSD charts updated on your systems

GVI Trading john bland 10:54 GMT November 30, 2016
Wednesday Trading

Hard to come up with an explanation for the GBPUSD fall other than a large selling order hit a gap in liquidity. Not very satisfying...

PAR 10:50 GMT November 30, 2016
EURO
Reply   
Stops building above 1.0700 .

GVI Trading john bland 10:35 GMT November 30, 2016
Wednesday Trading

GBP news??

GVI Trading 10:28 GMT November 30, 2016
Sterling stuck around $1.25 after sentiment slip --Reuters.com
Reply   
"LONDON, Nov 30 Sterling steadied in the middle of a 3-cent range it has held for most of the past month on Wednesday, any further progress against a slightly weaker euro undermined by a weaker reading of British consumer sentiment.

Confidence among British consumers fell in November to its lowest level since just after voters decided in June to leave the European Union, the regular survey by market research firm GfK showed on Wednesday. Investors were also digesting the need for more capital at British bank RBS after it failed the Bank of England's latest round of stress tests..."

Sterling stuck around $1.25 after sentiment slip --Reuters.com

GVI Trading john bland 10:24 GMT November 30, 2016
Wednesday Trading

Register for the Amazing Trader

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Amazing Trader EURUSD charts updated on your systems

PAR 10:18 GMT November 30, 2016
EURO

Italian referendum and Austrian presidential election should be Euro positive . In Austria we will get a Trumplike president .

GVI Trading john bland 10:09 GMT November 30, 2016
BREAKING NEWS: EZ flash HICP In Line

Take your pick YY Headline HICP rising, but core dead flat. ECB continues to miss its inflation targets.

GVI Forex Blog 10:08 GMT November 30, 2016
EQUITIMAX - Reviews - Independant Review of Equitimax
Reply   

Review of Equitimax Managed Trading Service

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Starting in Australia in 2012 the Equitimax Managed trading service has experienced consistent performance over the last 5 years

EQUITIMAX - Reviews - Independant Review of Equitimax

PAR 10:07 GMT November 30, 2016
EURO

Markets starting to bet on a Renzi victory, even if he loses he is not going to resign since Draghi will be there to help . So WIN WIN WIN

GVI Forex Blog 10:06 GMT November 30, 2016
BREAKING NEWS: EZ flash HICP In Line
Reply   
EZ flash HICP (CPI) up. core CPI flat.

BREAKING NEWS: EZ flash HICP In Line

GVI Trading john bland 10:00 GMT November 30, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

Eurozone flash HICP (CPI) November 2016





ALERT
Headline
yy: +0.60% vs. +0.60% exp. vs. +0.50% prev.
CORE
yy: +0.80% vs. +0.80% exp. vs. +0.80% prev.



TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Trading john bland 09:53 GMT November 30, 2016
Wednesday Trading


WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:
30-Nov Wed
07:00 DE- Retail Sales
08:55 DE- Employment
10:00 EZ- flash HICP
13:15 US- ADP Jobs
13:30 CA- GDP
13:30 US- PCE Deflator
14:45 US- Chicago PMI
15:00 US- Pending Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude
18:00 US- Beige Book
1-Dec Thu
All Day- final Mfg PMIs
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
2-Dec Fri
13:30 CA/US Employment


Trading Themes--
  • The OPEC Ministers meeting is underway in Vienna. It appears an agreement to cap or reduce production is close. Oil prices are up sharply.

  • The Italian Referendum next Sunday, November 4 remains a cause for concern. If the constitutional reforms are defeated, the Renzi government might fall and an election called. Some see the vote as an indirect referendum on the Euro. The ECB let it be known Tuesday that it has the capacity to buy Italian government bonds temporarily if needed.

  • The U.S. Presidential vote recount is a new uncertainty. U.S. Green Party candidate Jill Stein is behind possible recounts in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. The Clinton campaign will participate. Odds do not favor reversal of the Trump victory. Some feel Stein is doing this for personal reasons.

  • Friday sees U.S. November employment data. This is one of the key items the FOMC scrutinizes before making monetary policy decisions. Markets are running 100% odds that the central bank will raise its Fed Funds target by 25bps on December 14. Its hard to imagine a report so weak that would block this rate hike.

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founder Global-View.com


CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk On

PAR 09:37 GMT November 30, 2016
EURO
Reply   
Now hearing Renzi is closer to, winning the Italian referendum on sunday .
Makes sense as it always is the opposite from what is predicted that happens.

Mtl JP 09:34 GMT November 30, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:



usdcad BoD 1.3400 - 1.3350
and mind your risk

london red 09:32 GMT November 30, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

yes time to buy was yesterday. u buy when its dwn heavily, tp when up strongly. whatever the news or expectations.

PAR 09:31 GMT November 30, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

Reuters - fake news about ECB

Bloomberg - fake news about OPEC

Who to trust ?

PAR 09:26 GMT November 30, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

Taking profit Brent 50.10, crude 47.70.

See my mail yesterday on Bloomberg fake news .

GVI Trading john bland 09:19 GMT November 30, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

WTI up sharply...

GVI Trading john bland 09:18 GMT November 30, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

OPEC Ministers in closed-door meeting
-- Iraq Minister says there is an agreement

>> wire services

GVI Forex Blog 09:16 GMT November 30, 2016
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-On
Reply   

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-On

GVI Forex Blog 09:04 GMT November 30, 2016
BREAKING NEWS: German Unemployment as Expected
Reply   
German November Jobless declined slightly (lower is better).

BREAKING NEWS: German Unemployment as Expected

GVI Trading john bland 08:59 GMT November 30, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

German Unemployment November 2016




NEWS ALERT
Rate: 6.00% vs. 6.00% exp. vs. 6.00% prev.
Change: -5K vs. -5K exp. vs. -13K (r) prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Trading john bland 08:57 GMT November 30, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

Saudi Oil Minister:
-- There will be a deal today

>> wire service

GVI Trading john bland 08:53 GMT November 30, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

German Real Retail Sales October 2016




Earlier NEWS Release
mm: +2.4% vs. +1.00% exp. vs. -1.50%% (r -1.5) prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer


EARLIER: German Retail Sales beat.


london red 08:52 GMT November 30, 2016
eurusd

res at 68 if taken may see 23.6% of fall from 113 tested at 10704. there shud be some stops over 10686.

SaaR KaL 07:10 GMT November 30, 2016
Friday
Reply   
Friday Close Range approximation

NZDUSD 0.72040 0.68846
EURUSD 1.06232 1.02420
Cable 1.33407 1.24791
GBPJPY 152.28 140.25
USDJPY 116.96 110.58
EURJPY 121.12 116.39
AUDUSD 0.74556 0.71919

Hong Kong 02:35 GMT November 30, 2016
AceTrader Nov 30: Intra-Day News and Views USD/JPY
Reply   
30 Nov 2016 02:17GMT

USD/JPY - ..... Trading the pair in Tuesday's session turned out to be quite tricky. Despite initial weakness to 111.62 ahead of Tokyo open, dlr ratcheted higher to 112.73 in Europe on continued cross-selling in yen, the pair briefly jumped to session highs of 113.34 in early New York morning after release of upbeat U.S. GDP, however, a bout of broad-based long dlr liquidation sent price lower to 112.27 in New York afternoon.
Although price briefly dropped to 112.06 by Japanese names (exporters related) after tripping stops below 112.20, renewed buying quickly emerged and lifted dlr to112.43/44, suggesting sideways move above said Asian low is in store.

Bids are noted at 112.10-00 with stops below there, however, more buying interest is noted at 111.70-60 with stops reported below 111.30.
On the upside, offers are tipped at 112.55/65 and more above with some stops above 1113.00.

Pay attention to U.S. data later in the day starting with the volatile ADP private payrolls, personal consumption, personal income, personal consumption expenditure (PCE), Chicago purchasing manager index, pending home sales n Fed Beige book. Federal Reserve Bank Board Governor Gerome Powell will deliver a speech at 16:45GMT.

 




Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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