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Forex Forum Archive for 12/1/2016

Pick a date from the header above to view forum postings for that day.
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Tallinn viies 23:45 GMT December 1, 2016
eurusd
Reply   
sold long euro at 1.0666. sq now. will sell again at 1.0710

Kl Fs 23:42 GMT December 1, 2016
BREXIT

Dil, i am just confused. If you are seeing euro going sub parity with usd being so strong,then what level will that be for gold? Certainly not a good idea to go long gold and silver yet? Unless there is something else you may want to share with me?

Livingston nh 23:21 GMT December 1, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

As an aside - most of these cabinet picks were never on the RADAR -- some will be gone in a couple of years but at least there is a new crew

Livingston nh 23:15 GMT December 1, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

JP - first of all (and always) he is a Marine -- but he has been a strategic thinker, not just "boots on the ground" guy// we are in the age of robotics (algos to the financial world) and he will likely be more amenable to hi-tech than the BIG iron types because the little things that save military lives are important

COST (bang for the buck) -- e.g., A-10 was to be phased out but was cheaper by far than an F-35 and far more effective for small arms combat

anyway who knows

Mtl JP 23:04 GMT December 1, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

so what does one typically do with / to a mad dog ?

GVI Trading john bland 22:54 GMT December 1, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

I love his nickname. Don't mess with mad dog!

Livingston nh 22:31 GMT December 1, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

First thought is General Mattis is a throwback to the original position (non politically correct) known as Secretary of WAR (KNOX) -- most of the non-military types have been a disaster

GVI Trading 22:21 GMT December 1, 2016
Brent at 16-month high, Treasury yields climb further -- reuters.com
Reply   
"Brent crude futures rose to a 16-month high on Thursday on the heels of OPEC's agreement a day earlier to cut oil output, while Treasury yields continued to climb following the weakest monthly performance for global bonds in almost 13 years.

The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield jumped to its highest since July 2015 to start the month, after Bank of America Merrill Lynch's Global Broad Market Index fell 1.76 percent in November, its steepest monthly percentage drop since a 2.06 percent fall in July 2003..."

Brent at 16-month high, Treasury yields climb further -- reuters.com

Livingston nh 22:15 GMT December 1, 2016
Friday Trading

red - NFP consensus is 180k - so I expect a MISS - November has been on the high side last few years // I tack 10% on consensus higher (and a bit) // BUT if NFP is weak it is 20% off consensus (and a bit)

The seasonal adjustments kick in to reduce the high side (which makes a BAD number worse -- October s/b revised higher pulling some more out of NOV

My Goat entrail indicator agrees w/ consensus

GVI Trading john bland 21:29 GMT December 1, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

Trump names General "Mad-Dog" Mattis to be Defense Secretary -- WP

>> TTN.com

london red 21:27 GMT December 1, 2016
Friday Trading

nfp shud be a solid beat well over 200k, but i think it will be pushed off the headlines tomorrow. i smell blood.

Livingston nh 21:21 GMT December 1, 2016
Friday Trading

NFP Guess = 204K, decline in Participation Rate and 4.6% unemployment rate // usually unemployment rate rises as jobs get more plentiful but seems this time folks are withdrawing faster

If NFP below 140k Yellen has her Christmas Pony

nw kw 20:55 GMT December 1, 2016
Divergence

more pipelines than you can short 2 approved yesterday

nw kw 20:47 GMT December 1, 2016
Divergence

cad has 40day swings so strength approaching or fed killed swing oil down than

nw kw 20:43 GMT December 1, 2016
Divergence

JP- you need ngas ship. or st.

GVI Trading john bland 20:42 GMT December 1, 2016
Friday Trading

Register for the Amazing Trader

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GVI Trading Statistical Market BIAS Indicators--
The Fed Funds Market Sentiment Barometer reflects current sentiment about a future change in Fed policy. Odds for one rate hike by yearend are: +100% from +100% late Wednesday.

nw kw 20:41 GMT December 1, 2016
Divergence

oil at 50 for cad tar and cad banks and ngas cold front moving in 1 week and soft usa after fed for s?p and gold up but gold stocks good run so just oil for china ////////////////// 2 in 1 out? new pips cad so need investors so oil 50 to 60//
trump needs to drill for gdp. full to eur jets , cars that's why VW got killed for ussr had the plam or plat.. up in usa we go retoling for proditivity but only big stuff air plans. ngas ships galore for past 5years.
yip kw.gl

GVI Trading john bland 20:37 GMT December 1, 2016
Friday Trading
Reply   

WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:
2-Dec Fri
13:30 CA/US Employment


Trading Themes--
  • On Thursday Global final manufacturing PMI data generally continued to improve in latest releases today. As a result, bond yields broadly rose. Equities generally sold off due to higher interest rates.

  • U.S. November employment data is the next major economic event (Friday). Street estimates are for JObs to have gained by about 175K in the month and for the unemployment rate to remain steady at 4.90%. ADP private payroll data released this week suggest the the street estimates may be correct. They are not always a reliable indicator. Monthly Job statistics are one of the top items on which the FOMC monetary bases its policy decisions. Markets have placed 100% odds on a 25bp Fed Funds target increase on December 14.

  • The Italian Referendum next Sunday, December 4 remains a high profile event. Some feel this might become indirect referendum on the Euro. The ECB has indicated it has the capacity to buy Italian government bonds temporarily if needed. If these reforms are defeated, the Renzi government could fall.

  • OPEC decision reduce production by 1.4mn BPD to 32.5mn bpd continued to support crude price. Some oil traders say, Ministers deftly put a squeeze on the oli shorts. Conventional wisdom is that excess supply will be worked down due to increased demand and and put support for crude prices at somewhere around the $50 to $60 level.

  • The U.S. Presidential vote recount is another uncertainty. U.S. Green Party candidate Jill Stein, with Clinton help, is supporting recounts in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Odds do not favor a reversal of the Trump victory. Some feel Stein is doing this for personal reasons.

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founder Global-View.com


CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Markets

GVI Forex Blog 20:34 GMT December 1, 2016
CHART POINTS: Free Forex Database
Reply   



Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format

CHART POINTS: Free Forex Database

GVI Forex Blog 20:05 GMT December 1, 2016
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Markets
Reply   

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Markets

PAR 19:27 GMT December 1, 2016
Tbursday Trade

Hollande would have got 7.5% of the votes in the first round.
So a wise decision.

dc CB 19:23 GMT December 1, 2016
Tbursday Trade

the only one left with any shread of strength is Merkel.
Italy vote on Sun will topple another.

GVI Trading john bland 19:19 GMT December 1, 2016
Tbursday Trade

EURUSD trades up weakly on Hollande story. He was trailing badly in the polls.

GVI Trading john bland 19:11 GMT December 1, 2016
Tbursday Trade

Hollande says he will not stand for re-election

>> TTN.com

Livingston nh 18:55 GMT December 1, 2016
Divergence
Reply   
CAD and NOK trading in step w/ oil -- USD/MXN is higher //
the hangover from the OPEC party is going to be severe so a chance to build position in USD/CAD and USD/NOK

nw kw 18:54 GMT December 1, 2016
KRW

china qe supporting strength for now but se if eur holds.

Livingston nh 18:48 GMT December 1, 2016
KRW
Reply   
As one of many S. Korea has some protectionist tendencies -- Ross (Sec of Commerce designate) is likely to target these markets -- USD/KRW may be a long accumulate

nw kw 18:27 GMT December 1, 2016
Tbursday Trade

/ cadjpy 88.0 pos?/?/// than sell?

Mtl JP 18:11 GMT December 1, 2016
Italian FTSE MIB

PAR 17:28 suggest screw the ECB; make personal posi-use of them instead

london red 18:10 GMT December 1, 2016
Tbursday Trade

the fact that euro and yen couldnt go further despite another 10y record is sign to worry about a usd pullback. reaction to nfp tom key. mkt will go in long usd as usual. after that is key.

London AzaForex 17:47 GMT December 1, 2016
Strategy and research analyst on currency pair EURTRY 12-01-
Reply   


Buy OTHER
Entry: Target: Stop:

Strategy and research analyst on currency pair EURTRY 12-01-2016 by AzaForex forex broker

london red 17:44 GMT December 1, 2016
Tbursday Trade

dont expect 2.50 to break today. tom is poss but needs to be follow thru or they could reverse it. once higher high made they can run all the way back to 2% and still eventually move higher although youd expect sup further up to hold 212-235

GVI Trading john bland 17:42 GMT December 1, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

If the Atlanta Fed forecast is right, GDP is already at 3.00%.Trump is targeting 4%. He is halfway to is target without doing anything.

GVI Trading john bland 17:39 GMT December 1, 2016
Tbursday Trade

10-yr yield continues to press higher. Last 2.477% +11.6bp. Coming close to pressing the 2.50% line. There are lots of bonds to be sold. Don't stand in the doorway!

GVI Trading john bland 17:34 GMT December 1, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

Atlanta Fed GDPNow 4Q16 2.9% vs. 2.4% Nov 30.

>> TTN.com

PAR 17:28 GMT December 1, 2016
Italian FTSE MIB

Thks. Excellent article. We should semnt it to the ECB . LOL

Mtl JP 17:09 GMT December 1, 2016
Italian FTSE MIB

PAR 16:20 - the Italian system is based on corruption and nepotism, tribal relationships and

clientelimo

GVI Forex Blog 17:08 GMT December 1, 2016
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Markets
Reply   

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Markets

PAR 16:43 GMT December 1, 2016
ECB DRAGHI=PONZI

The ECB itself declined to comment.

Its "quantitative easing" asset-buying program, begun in March 2015 to fight off the threat of deflation, has already been extended and enlarged as diving oil prices dragged inflation into negative territory.

london red 16:40 GMT December 1, 2016
Tbursday Trade

euro. yes 34 guards high of day so far while intact can see weak end to current hour and lower test again. but dip buying strong so range trading with poss topside stop run might be bias for rest of evening.

PAR 16:37 GMT December 1, 2016
ECB DRAGHI=PONZI
Reply   
In the wake of sharply rising commodity prices , especially Brent oil, lower unemployment ,rising manufacturing and stock markets the ECB should stop its policy of FINANCIAL REPRESSION and stop negative interest rates .

This would make European consumers happy , help the European banks stabilize the Euro and the European bond markets .

GVI Trading Jay Meisler 16:25 GMT December 1, 2016
Tbursday Trade

Register for the Amazing Trader

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EURGBP giveth and taketh away. Pop in EURGBP is why EURUSD popped but shy of Amazing Trader resistance at 1.0634.

PAR 16:20 GMT December 1, 2016
Italian FTSE MIB

I don't touch Italian stocks never . Was in Italy last year and talked to real Italians , so sad ,so sad how many hard working people lost all their savings .

Mtl JP 16:16 GMT December 1, 2016
Italian FTSE MIB

PAR hope / expect that you got at least 6 of the "Italian stocks up 7 % since Draghi warned on the outcome of the Italian referendum" in "make posipip use of the cretins" theme !

PAR 16:13 GMT December 1, 2016
Italian FTSE MIB

Italian stocks up 7 % since Draghi warned on the outcome of the Italian referendum . One of the biggest scams ever.

I think it is time for Draghi to go and I am convinced the majority of Germans thinks the same .

Mtl JP 16:11 GMT December 1, 2016
Tbursday Trade

usdcad 1.3330
I ll be a buyer again on break N of 1.3350
if n when seen

PAR 16:07 GMT December 1, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

Negative rates are becoming surrealistic with Brent at $ 54 . What lies is Draghi going to tell on Thursday .

SaaR KaL 16:07 GMT December 1, 2016
Nasdaq 100
Reply   
Going right up North from here
I added much more

Mtl JP 16:05 GMT December 1, 2016
Tbursday Trade

still too low for my taste

10-yr yield 2.439 %

GVI Trading Jay Meisler 16:04 GMT December 1, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

11:02 (EU) Large majority of ECB members reportedly support extending QE beyond March at meeting next week - press
- mulling sending signal regarding the eventual end of asset buying, but no tapering announcement upcoming- policymakers said to be divided on monthly volume of extended purcahses; several options have been discussed in committees

- Source TradeTheNews.com

PAR 16:03 GMT December 1, 2016
BRENT
Reply   
New 52 week high above $ 54 . Energy and financials pushing stocks higher .

london red 15:56 GMT December 1, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

yest there a cboe tnx seller all day frm the kick off. i wonder if we see same again today

Tallinn viies 15:47 GMT December 1, 2016
eurusd
Reply   
bougt euros at 1,0590 with target at 1,0666. stop and reverse at 1,0540.

GVI Trading Jay Meisler 15:47 GMT December 1, 2016
New! Global-View Alerts
Reply   
We are pleased to announce the start of a free alerts feature:

Alerts include videos of our daily strategy meetings, market alerts, trading alerts, special reports, and more.

Simply click below

Sign up now (free) for Global-View Alerts

You will receive a copy of my exclusive report, Inside Scoop: How to Identify Forex Flows

Note: Survey Monkey is only being used as a form of registration to sign up for the alerts Regards,

Jay Meisler

GVI Forex Blog 15:43 GMT December 1, 2016
GVI Data Calendar for 2 December 2016
Reply   

December 1, 2016 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Friday, December 2, 2016.

  • Far East: No Major Data
  • Europe: GB- Construction PMI, EZ- PPI
  • North America: CA- Employment, US- Employment, Rig Count, COT Report

WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:
1-Dec Thu
All Day- final Mfg PMIs
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
2-Dec Fri
13:30 CA/US Employment

GVI Data Calendar for 2 December 2016

GVI Trading john bland 15:30 GMT December 1, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

US EIA Weekly Natural Gas Inventories (bcf)

U.S. Data Charts




ALERT
-50 vs. -52 exp vs. -2 prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Trading Jay Meisler 15:27 GMT December 1, 2016
Tbursday Trade

Register for the Amazing Trader

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Amazing Trader EURUSD resistance at 1.0608 held dead o;n, followed by a new low. EURGBP back to .8400, GBPUSD losing its bid, see if the 1.0592 gap can hold.

Mtl JP 15:23 GMT December 1, 2016
Tbursday Trade

gbpusd is SoR while under 1.2650 now
looking for 1.25 / 1.24 trgts
trying to keep it simple

PAR 15:14 GMT December 1, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

The sentiment has completely changed . We are living in a new world for the time being at least . Nothing but good news . Be happy look at the bright side of live and enjoy America 's new dream.

london red 15:11 GMT December 1, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

its fiscal policy expectations that are driving mkt. we are nearly done, maybe another 10% before we need to see some evidence as mkt is prob got dec and 2 for 2017 in the price. still a little bit of upside for usd to come tho b4 it tops out for a pullback.

GVI Trading john bland 15:08 GMT December 1, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

fwiw- Trump does not come in for another 50 days or so. This all belongs to the previous bunch.

london red 15:08 GMT December 1, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

euro. staying under 10599-10604 keeps pressure on dwnside but been formidable buying 10570-80. will be tough to break today. further res 10615

GVI Trading Jay Meisler 15:07 GMT December 1, 2016
New! Amazing Trader Alerts

Register for the Amazing Trader

1.


We are pleased to announce the start of a free alerts feature:

Alerts include videos of our daily strategy meetings, market alerts, trading alerts, special reports, and more.

Simply click below

Sign up now (free) for Amazing Trader Alerts

You will receive a copy of my exclusive report, Inside Scoop: How to Identify Forex Flows

Note: Survey Monkey is only being used as a form of registration to sign up for the alerts Regards,

Jay Meisler

PAR 15:06 GMT December 1, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

Trump . The power of positive thinking .

Draghi. The power of negative thinking and negative rates .

Israel Dil 15:06 GMT December 1, 2016
BREXIT

kl fs

y/y basis, what 2016 did with all you mentioned? can't you see trend remaining until sub parity at least?

or you just pulling a leg?

GVI Forex Blog 15:06 GMT December 1, 2016
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. ISM Mfg PMI Up
Reply   
U.S. ISM Mfg stronger than expected. Final Markit PMI up. ISM report more important.

BREAKING NEWS: U.S. ISM Mfg PMI Up

PAR 15:02 GMT December 1, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

US economy is strong and getting stronger . Midas Trump .

GVI Trading john bland 15:02 GMT December 1, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

U.S. Construction Spending October 2016

U.S. Data Charts




ALERT
+0.5% vs. +0.60% exp. vs. -0.40% (r ) prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer

london red 15:01 GMT December 1, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

no beat on emp. might stop usd for now but buy dips

GVI Trading john bland 15:00 GMT December 1, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI November 2016

U.S. Data Charts





News ALERT

53.2 vs. 52.1 exp. vs. 51.9 prev.
RELEASE: ISM Manufacturing PMI


TTN: Live News Special Offer

PAR 14:54 GMT December 1, 2016
Tbursday Trade

Great news for US banks . Great news .

Kl Fs 14:47 GMT December 1, 2016
BREXIT

Dil, if u r cheering for usd then your gold and silver long will be counterproductive... no?

GVI Trading john bland 14:45 GMT December 1, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

U.S. Markit PMI November 2016




ALERT
54.1 vs. 53.9 exp. vs. 53.9 prev.



TTN: Live News Special Offer

Markit PMI Press Release

london red 14:41 GMT December 1, 2016
Tbursday Trade

2.47/2.50 the prev high. higher high would put 3.00 in play prob eventually technically.

Livingston nh 14:36 GMT December 1, 2016
Tbursday Trade

Treasurys (and bunds?) are off to the races -- 10 yr yield pushing 2.45 /// so far stox don't care

SaaR KaL 14:35 GMT December 1, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

GBPNZD very bullish
T + 7 days PI
1.94696 1.78797
adding at 1.7600 area if seen
Now Long

GBPCHF Very Bullish as well
1.4041 1.2735


AAPL
113.4969 97.1884

FB
121.3520 106.9834

GVI Forex Blog 14:33 GMT December 1, 2016
BREAKING NEWS: Canada PMI Improves
Reply   
Canada Markit PMI. Stronger and above the "50" expansion line.

BREAKING NEWS: Canada PMI Improves

GVI Trading john bland 14:30 GMT December 1, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

Markit final Mfg PMI November 2016





ALERT
51.5 vs. n/a exp. vs. 51.1 prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer

SaaR KaL 14:30 GMT December 1, 2016
DJI Very Bullish for at least a week

Oil shorts...should dive soon

Shorts @ T + 7 days
XAU/USD 1,256.16
EUR/USD 1.0659
EUR/GBP 0.844 ----> Very bearish
AUD/USD 0.7442
NZD/USD 0.7242

Longs @ T +7 days
USD/CAD 1.3302
AUS200 5,234.24
USD/JPY 111.25
JPN225 18,242.56
NAS100 4,751.41
EUR/JPY 117.068
GBP/JPY 142.013
GBP/USD 1.2465

SaaR KaL 14:25 GMT December 1, 2016
DJI Very Bullish for at least a week
Reply   
Next week's Friday close PI

20,410.11 19,336.83
NDX
5,054.94 4,751.42
SP500
2,332.01 2,217.68

I am long and staying that way

PAR 14:23 GMT December 1, 2016
BREXIT

Austria is a Trump repeat .

Israel Dil 14:22 GMT December 1, 2016
BREXIT

Austria to vote the coming weekend too, so it's a huge yawn until Tuesday with the major currencies.

GVI Trading Jay Meisler 14:19 GMT December 1, 2016
Tbursday Trade
Reply   

Register for the Amazing Trader

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Classic using crosses to trade spot day... GBPUSD peaked and offsets took over in EURUSD (lower) and USDJPY (higher).., all described in our daily meeting today.

Also, note the stops run in GBPUSD above 1.2675 as the Amazing Trader indicated at our meering

PAR 14:14 GMT December 1, 2016
BREXIT
Reply   
Secret negotiations with Europe taking place at high level . That's democracy . ?

PAR 14:06 GMT December 1, 2016
Italian FTSE MIB
Reply   
Breaks 17000 one of its best weekly performances after Draghi s warnings . Blackrock a huge winner.

GVI Trading john bland 13:55 GMT December 1, 2016
Thursday Trade

Equities Mixed
DAX -67
DJ +36
SP +3

10-yr 2.415% +5.4bp

london red 13:54 GMT December 1, 2016
RISK ON

cable has broken prev high 12673 nxt res is fib of 135/115 a whisker under 127

london red 13:48 GMT December 1, 2016
eurusd

more of the same til nfp - there are ~2 yards at 10450 106 10650 and 107 tom plus of course the barrier at 105. mkt will not be long euro into wknd elections and so a gd nfp shud see us move towards 105 but not sure if can be taken. so better to fade rallies. anything 50+ today. fib at 107 and change shud cap but more res by 10750. mkt will go into nfp shrt. we have a bit more data this afternoon which mkt will use to put 2+2 together in terms of nfp tom.

PAR 13:45 GMT December 1, 2016
RISK ON
Reply   
New month , new president new highs .

Tallinn viies 13:43 GMT December 1, 2016
eurusd
Reply   
people are talking a lot today about well published huge option position with strike 1,0600 which expires today.
so next hour and half nobody thinks euro can go below 1,06. easy money - buying euros and selling it out if profit in books. repeating again and again. what is going to happen after option cut-off time thats interesting. any ideas?

PAR 13:42 GMT December 1, 2016
BRENT
Reply   
Brent above $ 53 . Next $55 then $ 60 ?

PAR 13:40 GMT December 1, 2016
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Weekly Jobless Rebound

Elections are over .

GVI Trading john bland 13:39 GMT December 1, 2016
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Weekly Jobless Rebound

Jobless Claims. No implications for data tomorrow nor for Fed rate hike expectations for December 14.

GVI Forex Blog 13:36 GMT December 1, 2016
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Weekly Jobless Rebound
Reply   
U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims Rise

<Click on chart for over twelve-year history

BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Weekly Jobless Rebound

GVI Trading john bland 13:31 GMT December 1, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims

U.S. Data Charts






NEWS ALERT

Initial Claims (000)
268K vs. 252K exp. vs. 251K prev.

TTN: Live News Special Offer

london red 13:25 GMT December 1, 2016
Blackrock - ECB

options into nxt wk showing euro priced in 1.5 to 2 figs depending how far into the wk you go. i expect euro will finish monday higher yes or no vote. of course on a no will be lower first.

PAR 13:17 GMT December 1, 2016
US Markets
Reply   
Markets to open higher on higher oil and higher rates .

PAR 13:14 GMT December 1, 2016
Blackrock - ECB

Great movie . Banks , mafia , central bankers , naked women , limoncello . poor italians . Novecento remake .

Israel Dil 13:11 GMT December 1, 2016
Blackrock - ECB

Yoram Gutgeld on Renzi's side, Italians vote NO and there we go... pasta and pizza without Brussels recipe, the pasta monster rules and Blackrock gets bailout from Munchin a-la Holywood

PAR 12:53 GMT December 1, 2016
Blackrock - ECB

After buying the market comment becomes.


BlackRock: Little Reason To Worry About Italian Election

PAR 12:51 GMT December 1, 2016
Blackrock - ECB

A top bond investor for BlackRock Inc, the world's largest asset manager, is bargain-hunting in Europe as investors fret over a coming vote that may shake Italy's government.

http://www.businessinsider.com/r-blackrocks-rieder-adds-exposure-to-european-banks-ahead-of-italy-vote-2016-11

UPDATE 3-Investors hedge bond bets before Italy vote, banks rebound

http://www.reuters.com/article/eurozone-bonds-idUSL8N1DU1WP

PAR 12:47 GMT December 1, 2016
Blackrock - ECB
Reply   
A huge conflict of interest . Blackrock loading up on Italian bonds and bank shares while advising the ECB what to buy .

Israel Dil 12:44 GMT December 1, 2016
Sterling jumps after minister hints at EU market access -- reuters.com

sfh

when I look at charts as you are doing, I see BREXIT never happened, Hillary is the US president elect and jumping GBP. so I stopped looking at charts ;-)

tomorrow higher high, and a week after tomorrow lower weekly low and lower monthly low too. mark me and remind me


PAR 12:39 GMT December 1, 2016
Wilbur Ross
Reply   
https://www.ft.com/content/d539117e-58d5-11e6-8d05-4eaa66292c32

Bank backer cool on Monte dei Paschi plan
Wilbur Ross says Italian bank fundraising is not an “overwhelming opportunity”

Israel Dil 12:39 GMT December 1, 2016
9.88/10 chance for new 2016 EUR/USD low

come on PAR... first eur needed Trump as president to get over 1.2

sub parity and then we look further

by the way, where is Paris IB? - I heard her husband took her early for year's end holiday. he claims it's cheaper to have 5☆ exotic holiday and allow her buying euros.

LONDON SFH 12:37 GMT December 1, 2016
Sterling jumps after minister hints at EU market access -- reuters.com

dil

I think if u look at the chart you will see its capable of a jump....in both directions...You short and caught? Where's your stop?

london red 12:36 GMT December 1, 2016
Sterling jumps after minister hints at EU market access -- reuters.com

john has been said many times before. in fact all scenarios have been discussed at various times. but it fits the bill as mkt is short. sterling has been strong for a number of days now. once shorts clear its back down. realistically 128 and a half shud mark high but as long as lower high <135 still goes lower. at this stage i presume 128-12870 but if stays up there if will move higher still. needs up and down quickly in terms of the chart timescale you are considering. ie a long wick on candle. monthly chart may give us one but i feel 2017 may need to have a move high to make a wick there on yearly chart. patience.

Livingston nh 12:35 GMT December 1, 2016
Sterling jumps after minister hints at EU market access -- reuters.com

John - it seems there is no plan and we still await the Court ruling

Israel Dil 12:31 GMT December 1, 2016
Sterling jumps after minister hints at EU market access -- reuters.com

it's a very pretentious statement to claim the GBP is capable to jump.
let's say the cruel forex background gods and their political slaves kicked it up and now it's the waiting for sub 1.2 this month.

this is the script.

PAR 12:25 GMT December 1, 2016
9.88/10 chance for new 2016 EUR/USD low

EURO needs close above 1.0700 to stabilize . Think it could happen sooner rather than later .

Israel Dil 12:18 GMT December 1, 2016
9.88/10 chance for new 2016 EUR/USD low
Reply   
so you know what to do above 1.0650...


PAR 12:18 GMT December 1, 2016
Sterling jumps after minister hints at EU market access -- reuters.com

Good Idea for the negotiations with Turkey . LOL

GVI Trading john bland 12:10 GMT December 1, 2016
Sterling jumps after minister hints at EU market access -- reuters.com

I have to wonder if this:

"Brexit minister David Davis said Britain would consider making payments to the EU budget in return for access to EU markets."

was a trial balloon? Thoughts??

PAR 12:06 GMT December 1, 2016
Central Banks
Reply   
Central bankers trying to influence the results of referenda or elections thru verbal or market interventions is imho one bridge to far .

The people should vote freely without scaremongering or market manipulations by unelected central bankers .

This is a real undemocratic Comedia dell arte and should be stopped immediately . Maybe by REFERENDUM ?

Livingston nh 12:02 GMT December 1, 2016
Sterling jumps after minister hints at EU market access -- reuters.com

Well -- that certainly wasn't a good start to the day or the month -- cable short closed on break of 55 ema

GVI Trading Jay Meisler 11:48 GMT December 1, 2016
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london red 11:47 GMT December 1, 2016
EUROPE

everything works its way into a currency price, but dont think it was a major influence. they have said they will let inflation run away a bit if necessary so that factor not as big a concern as otherwise would be. main focus is massive shrts which are stopping mkt from moving lower. once cleared mkt will refocus on negotiation uncertainty.

GVI Trading 11:45 GMT December 1, 2016
Sterling jumps after minister hints at EU market access -- reuters.com
Reply   
"Sterling bounced to an almost three-month high in trade-weighted terms on Thursday after Brexit minister David Davis said Britain would consider making payments to the EU budget in return for access to EU markets.

Traders read that as another major crack in the "hard Brexit" line from the government that drove sterling below $1.20 in October and the pound jetted to a three-week high of $1.2644 in response..."

Sterling jumps after minister hints at EU market access -- reuters.com

london red 11:39 GMT December 1, 2016
EUROPE

press will associate sterling run on comments from MP davis but in truth he has said nothing new and cable was set to run higher since yesterday. even today was running before he answered q by labour MP. press always finds a fit to mkt event in an effort to make it look less like a whorehouse.

london red 11:34 GMT December 1, 2016
EUROPE

euro. lrg 106 ex today and tomorrow (5+2). also a few yards higher up towards 10650 so for me fade anything abv 10650 to be shrt into tom nfp. mkt i think will run with gd nfp as long as wages at least meet f/c. nfp doesnt always yield sustained strng usd reaction to good data but tom i think it will if we get gd news.

Belgrade Knez 11:29 GMT December 1, 2016
EUROPE


london red

can you share your view of EURUSD please?

thank you.

GVI Trading john bland 11:25 GMT December 1, 2016
EUROPE

red thanks!

london red 11:25 GMT December 1, 2016
EUROPE

very poss we are done for now but as i say i think 128+ b4 lt lower maybe dec maybe jan.

london red 11:24 GMT December 1, 2016
EUROPE

potential sup 32 21 12 03 then 12586 and 12574. those last two must hold or will get hourly wick, a long one. ry.

london red 11:14 GMT December 1, 2016
EUROPE

closed abv daily cloud and followed thru 12530 today. mkt heavily short and stops being run here and eurgbp. many gbp pairs by key mas as well. all put together and gd excuse to cripple a few accounts. 50% fib held off for now but if sustains abv it then we go again. think we may back of here but ultimately can still see 128 maybe dec maybe jan.

GVI Trading john bland 11:10 GMT December 1, 2016
EUROPE

Any word on whats going on in cable? It had been looking heavy a couple of hours ago before it rocketed higher.

GVI Trading john bland 11:07 GMT December 1, 2016
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PAR 11:06 GMT December 1, 2016
The war on CASH
Reply   
AAPL and Fintech promoting the war on CASH ?

london red 11:06 GMT December 1, 2016
EUROPE

eurgbp close to 84, there will be plenty of multis hedging at 8333/1.20 so 83 shud be low of this cycle b4 bounce. cable will be affected.

london red 10:51 GMT December 1, 2016
EUROPE

LT cable shorts 127 (maybe) better 128-12870. nearby res after 12603 is 12643 50% of 135/11840 and 12699 61.8 of 135/11491 the real cable low. those two can offer st shorts but i think they will test prev bottom, the lows after brexit by 128 and 12870

kl fs 10:43 GMT December 1, 2016
EUROPE

red, will you go short cable today?

PAR 10:42 GMT December 1, 2016
Italian Banks
Reply   
The whole Italian banking system is a PONZI scheme where banks lend money to their customers to buy their bank shares .

In the end a PONZI scheme always colapses whether it is before or after a referendum . The question is . WHO is going to pay the bill ?

london red 10:37 GMT December 1, 2016
EUROPE

gbppln thru 200dma and eurgbp under 144ema. if stick can run 530-535 and 8333 (1.20 gbpeur). at those pts you expect retracement into prev months range.

london red 10:36 GMT December 1, 2016
EUROPE

stops run on eurgbp under 8450 cable some res at 85 nxt 12603

PAR 10:35 GMT December 1, 2016
ECB DRAGHI=PONZI

ECB buying keep Italian yields down . Mario 's preemptive strike .

PAR 10:24 GMT December 1, 2016
ECB DRAGHI=PONZI
Reply   
When The First Small Piece Of censored Finally Sticks...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-11-30/when-first-small-piece-censored-finally-sticks

Draghi protecting Unicredit since 2007 ?

london red 10:19 GMT December 1, 2016
EUROPE

PAR it wont make any diff, the results are already known! Set up for right wins for each and every one.

PAR 10:11 GMT December 1, 2016
EUROPE
Reply   
European unemployment rate decrease to 9.8% (fc 10%)

Elections are coming . LOL

GVI Trading john bland 09:53 GMT December 1, 2016
Thursday Trade

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GVI Trading john bland 09:37 GMT December 1, 2016
Thursday Trade


WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:
1-Dec Thu
All Day- final Mfg PMIs
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
2-Dec Fri
13:30 CA/US Employment


Trading Themes--
  • Global final manufacturing PMI data continued to improve in latest releases today. U.S. November employment data is the next major economic event (Friday). ADP private payroll data suggest the upcoming report could be solid. ADP data are not always a reliable indicator. Monthly Job data are one of the top items the FOMC scrutinizes before making monetary policy decisions. Markets place 100% odds on a 25bp Fed Funds target increase on December 14.

  • The Italian Referendum next Sunday, November 4 remains a high profile event. Some feel this is an indirect Euro referendum. The ECB has indicated it has the capacity to buy Italian government bonds temporarily if needed. If these reforms are defeated, the Renzi government might fall.

  • The OPEC Ministers meeting wound up as expected with production reduced by 1.4mn BPD to 32.5mn bpd. The conventional wisdom is that excess supply will be worked down over the next year due to increased demand and and support crude prices at somewhere around the $50 level. Oil prices are off their overnigh highs.

  • The U.S. Presidential vote recount is another uncertainty. U.S. Green Party candidate Jill Stein, with Clinton help, is supporting recounts in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Odds do not favor a reversal of the Trump victory. Some feel Stein is doing this for personal reasons.

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founder Global-View.com


CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Markets

GVI Trading john bland 09:34 GMT December 1, 2016
BREAKING NEWS: U.K. Mfg PMI Eases

GBP down on PMI miss.

GVI Forex Blog 09:33 GMT December 1, 2016
BREAKING NEWS: U.K. Mfg PMI Eases
Reply   
U.K. Manufacturing PMI eases.

BREAKING NEWS: U.K. Mfg PMI Eases

GVI Trading john bland 09:30 GMT December 1, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

Manufacturing PMI November 2016

U.K. Charts







-- NEWS ALERT --

53.4 vs. 54.4 exp. vs. 54.3 (r 54.2) prev.





TTN: Live News Special Offer

kl shawn 09:23 GMT December 1, 2016
GBPUSD 12475

follow master wfakhoury sold cable 1.2526, stop 1.2563, target 1.2475
let's go!

GVI Trading john bland 09:15 GMT December 1, 2016
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Markets

Notic U.S. 10-yr above 2.40% (2.412% +5.1bp)

GVI Forex Blog 09:13 GMT December 1, 2016
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Markets
Reply   

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Markets

GVI Forex Blog 09:04 GMT December 1, 2016
BREAKING NEWS: EZ final Manufacturing PMIs Mixed
Reply   
EZ final PMIs. Mixed vs. flash estimates.



BREAKING NEWS: EZ final Manufacturing PMIs Mixed

Amman wfakhoury 09:02 GMT December 1, 2016
GBPUSD 12475
Reply   
GBPUSD 12475 confirmed will be reached unless it breaks up 12555 and keep above it


The only one in the world who confirms the next level


GVI Trading john bland 09:01 GMT December 1, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

EZ Final PMIs November 2016





ALERT
EZ
mfg: 53.7 vs. 53.7 exp. vs. 53.7 flash
German
mfg: 54.3 vs. 54.4 exp. vs. 54.4 flash
France
mfg 51.7 vs. 51.5 exp. vs. 51.5 flash



Markit PMI Press Release



TTN: Live News Special Offer

PAR 08:59 GMT December 1, 2016
Steven Mnuchin - Higher interest

Higher rates is good for the US stock markets as banks make more money .

PAR 08:56 GMT December 1, 2016
Paul Donovan - UBS
Reply   
OPEC and some non-OPEC members have agreed to oil production cuts - the first since 2008. The consequent rise in the oil price is not (yet) of major macro significance. Gulf states will still run fiscal deficits and need to sell US assets. Headline inflation in the developed world was rising anyway.
Confirmation that film "actor" Steven Mnuchin is the next US treasury secretary led to a presentation of policy via the media not Twitter. Mnuchin indicated fiscal easing would be a priority, that he liked low rates from the Federal Reserve, and that tariffs were unlikely to be imposed on China on day one.
Opinion polls abound in the markets today. China's business sentiment PMI poll showed expectations of accelerating and decelerating economic activity (depending on the pollster used). Europe's final PMI data is also due, with all the quality that final data offers (i.e. none).
The US ISM business sentiment opinion poll data is expected to show accelerating activity – although the export subcomponents may be affected by the dollar (as the poll asks about real exports, the results are not supposed to be affected by the dollar, but they often are).

GVI Trading john bland 08:50 GMT December 1, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

China, Japan, Switzerland PMIs November 2016

China
NBS: 51.7 vs. 51.0 exp vs. 51.2 prev.
Caixin: 50.9 vs. 50.8 exp vs. 51.2 prev.
China NBS PMI well above "50" boom or Bust line. Caixin up.



Japan
51.3 vs. 51.1 exp. vs. 51.1 prev.
Final July Japan PMI revised up




Switzerland
56.6 vs. n/a vs. 54.7 prev.
Swiss PMI improves to 56.6 from 54.7

Mtl JP 08:29 GMT December 1, 2016
CRUDE

she said....
he said...

OPEC cuts will have a muted effect on consumers

PAR 08:09 GMT December 1, 2016
CRUDE
Reply   
Biggest rise in the past decades will have a huge redistribution of wealth effect . Opec, Russia and USA to benefit . Europe as usual to suffer .

ECB did not see that one coming .

PAR 08:05 GMT December 1, 2016
Steven Mnuchin - Higher interest
Reply   
Mnuchin open to extend US Treasury maturities
Freshly appointed US Treasury secretary Mnuchin said he’ll explore issuing
debt maturing in more than 30 years: “we’ll look at potentially extending the
maturity of the debt, because eventually we are going to have higher interest
rates, and that’s something that this country is going to need to deal with.”
Asked if he would consider maturities as long as 50 years or 100 years, Mnuchin
said: “We’ll take a look at everything.”

london red 07:26 GMT December 1, 2016
DEC/2016 highs and lows

NB gbpjpy gbppln both at 200dma while eurgbp cushioned by 144ema for some time. any breaks tend to get huge moves so pay attention as if to break will go today or tomorrow. goes same for reversal off. will be big moves on these pairs by end of week. cable of course will be affected. odds are on a short squeeze for gbp shorts. temporary of course but u gotta pay the bills.

london red 07:13 GMT December 1, 2016
DEC/2016 highs and lows

worth watching anything that this week fails to trade in last months range. as they will be going back sooner or later.
cable. while holding 125 looks likely to test 126 initially. eurgbp could finally make a move below 8450.

Israel Dil 07:13 GMT December 1, 2016
crude

should luck will revisit me to have sub $44 longs for $70+ during 2017?

I don't believe so, but who knows ;-)

Israel Dil 07:11 GMT December 1, 2016
DEC/2016 highs and lows
Reply   
reasonable to assume that some highs and lows for this month to be set by tomorrow's close.... if not, then at other point of the month ;-)

SaaR KaL 06:14 GMT December 1, 2016
crude

Bali
I am short oil for near 41 tgt

bali sja 05:42 GMT December 1, 2016
crude
Reply   
new floor 50...soon 57-58?

Singapore 05:21 GMT December 1, 2016
EUR/USD & GBP/USD Forex Signals
Reply   
EUR/USD today’s Exchange Rate is 1.0606.

GBP/USD today’s Exchange Rate is 1.2523.


Our Recommendation:

EUR/USD and GBP/USD is going up and is recommended to buy.


For Live Forex Signals and Forex Trading Tips With 3 Days Free Trial Offer visit: http://www.mmfsolutions.sg/services/forex-pack/

Amelia

SaaR KaL 05:04 GMT December 1, 2016
X Stock (American Steel Corp)
Reply   
IMO this is challenging now...but IMO i think bearish for a year to near 10 Bucks
Bigger wave will take over the whole thing

I have these orders now
Shorts
EUR/GBP 0.85251
USOil 50.084
AUD/USD 0.7481
AUD/USD 0.74586
EUR/GBP 0.85407

Longs
GBP/USD 1.24459
USD/CAD 1.33763
GBP/NZD 1.75226
USD/JPY 112.086
USD/JPY 112.739
EUR/JPY 118.675
EUR/JPY 119.146
GBP/JPY 139.165
GBP/JPY 139.573
AUS200 5,411.93
AUS200 5,447.23
JPN225 18,087.05
US30 19,047.05


bali sja 04:26 GMT December 1, 2016
cable
Reply   
looks like a squeeze higher is coming today for cable
1.2685-90 to be seen later?

Hong Kong 02:24 GMT December 1, 2016
AceTrader Dec 1: Intra-Day News and Views USD/JPY
Reply   
01 Dec 2016 01:23GMT

USD/JPY - ..... Dlr climbed to a fresh 9-month peak of 114.83 just ahead of Tokyo open partly on downbeat Japan's economic data, Reuters reported.
Japanese business expenditure fell in the third quarter, the first annual decline since the start of 2013, in a worrying sign that uncertainty over the economic outlook is eroding companies' confidence.

The capital spending data, which is used to calculate revised gross domestic product (GDP) due on Dec. 8, underscores concerns about a fragile recovery in the world's third-largest economy.
A preliminary estimate last month showed the Japanese economy grew at 2.2 percent annualised in the July-September quarter, much faster than expected by economists, as rebounding exports offset weakness in domestic demand.

However, a recent run of soft indicators including exports, factory output and household spending raised doubt about sustainability in the economic growth.
Ministry of Finance data showed today on Capital spending in July-September fell 1.3 percent year-on-year, slowing from a 3.1 percent annual gain in the previous quarter.
It was the first annual decline since January-March 2013, shortly after Prime Minister Shinzo Abe swept to power with a pledge to pull the economy out of stagnation and deflation.

On the quarter, capital expenditure rose 0.4 percent from the previous three months on a seasonally-adjusted basis after excluding software spending, up for the first time in four quarters.
Analysts usually watch the MOF capex data for clues on revised GDP figures, but this time is different, some say.

GVI Trading Jay Meisler 01:42 GMT December 1, 2016
Kwun
Reply   
Your ab posts are getting tiresome and violate our rules so please focus on your own trading and cut it out.

 




Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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