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Forex Forum Archive for 12/04/2016

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london red 23:51 GMT December 4, 2016
Fade This

fireworks may be over no til early london am. straddle range will provide intial sup/res for proper breakout once price settles for a few hours.

london red 23:46 GMT December 4, 2016
Fade This

barrier held on initial attempt, needs to stay below 106 or 10685/90 tested.

Paris ib 23:29 GMT December 4, 2016
Fade This

concentrate power :-)

Paris ib 23:28 GMT December 4, 2016
Fade This

Renzi was the smiley face for the agenda to contrate power, deregulate and privatize everything. If he doesn't resign it's because the deviants don't have another smiley face on hand.

london red 23:28 GMT December 4, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

eod straddle about 130 pips.

GVI Trading 23:28 GMT December 4, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

18:20 (IT) Italy PM Renzi: Resigns as expected; Turnout was higher than anyone expected; Italian people have spoken
Will hand in resignation to President tomorrow

Vote was a great sign of DemocracyNo camp must now make clear proposals

- Source TradeTheNews.com

GVI Trading john bland 23:28 GMT December 4, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

Renzi Resigns

TTN.com

GVI Trading john bland 23:23 GMT December 4, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

Renzi:
-- higher than expected turnout
-- Italian people have spoken
-- No camp must present clear proposals

>> TTN.com

Paris ib 23:14 GMT December 4, 2016
Fade This

did NOT get through :-)

Paris ib 23:13 GMT December 4, 2016
Fade This
Reply   
The failure of the 'reformist' referendum was a foregone conclusion Renzi was not voted in to his present position, he was appointed. The referendum changes nothing because it did get through. Get that? Changes nothing. Renzi was never popular except in the foreign press. He will not be missed. Fade but don't rush.

london red 23:00 GMT December 4, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

thats when he concedes and resigns. all about 10520 105 and 10450 now that the hammers down. must break and hold below otherwise it hits new hod. there will be no special eu meeting, tusk has said its not deemed necessary so any rumours of them doing anything will just be rumours.

GVI Trading Jay Meisler 23:00 GMT December 4, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

Renzi statement to be delayed by 20 minutes, 22;20 GMT

GVI Trading Jay Meisler 22:57 GMT December 4, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

RTRS indicated Renzi to speak at 22:00 GMT

london red 22:37 GMT December 4, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

eurgbp 8333/1.20 gbpeur getting a bit of sup no doubt.

dc CB 22:28 GMT December 4, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

Jill Stein is on a flight to Rome. She is intending to demand a recount. She has already raise $10M after making an announcement 2 hours ago, all from small donations of 10Euros or less. (SARC off)

GVI Trading john bland 22:23 GMT December 4, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

Focus now is whether this is a "hard" or "soft" no. Its sounding to me like a hard no...

GVI Trading john bland 22:21 GMT December 4, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

"NO's" 52-60%

dc CB 22:15 GMT December 4, 2016
CFTC Commitment Of Traders Report

dc CB 21:12 GMT December 2, 2016
CFTC Commitment Of Traders Report: Reply
wow 10Y
http://snalaska.com/cot/current/charts/TY.png

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

If Gundlach is right and TSY shorts are about to be squeezed, the move could be massive....ZH

Treasury Shorts At 6 Year Highs

london red 22:10 GMT December 4, 2016
Monday Trading

drifting dwn on polls into renzi speech in an hour. if resigns will mrk it dwn as resignation mentioned but obv not confirmed until he says. but barrier at 105. if 10450 not beaten they may rally thru 10690 to 108-10850 as event lrgly priced in and its where the stops sit. of course a sell once madness fades.

GVI Trading john bland 22:09 GMT December 4, 2016
Monday Trading

Renzi slated to speak at about 23:00 GMT

GVI Trading john bland 22:08 GMT December 4, 2016
Monday Trading

wide b/o spreads
1.0590-97

N Y JM 22:07 GMT December 4, 2016
Monday Trading

The only question is why EURUSD was bid up at all ahead of the referendum when a No result was widely expected.

GVI Trading 22:03 GMT December 4, 2016
Monday Trading

17:01 (IT) Italy referendum early exit polls shows "no" ahead

- Source TradeTheNews.com

GVI Trading john bland 22:03 GMT December 4, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

Italy Exit polls "no" vote ahead awaiting details

EURUSD lower >> wire services

london red 22:03 GMT December 4, 2016
Monday Trading

exit polls showing renzi yes losing by a clear margin frm reuters.

GVI Trading john bland 21:59 GMT December 4, 2016
Monday Trading

EURUSD 1.0626-31
USDJPY 113.29-33

Mtl JP 21:34 GMT December 4, 2016
Monday Trading



this was eurgbp at Friday close
fresh trade ideas welcome

GVI Trading john bland 19:44 GMT December 4, 2016
Monday Trading


WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:
5-Dec Mon
All Day- final Service PMIs
6-Dec Tue
04:30 AU- RBA Policy Decision
10:00 EZ- GDP
13:30 US- Productivity
7-Dec Wed
00:30 AU- GDP
15:00 CA- BOC Policy Decision
15:30 US- EIA Crude
23:50 JP- GDP
8-Dec Thu
02:00 CN- Trade
12:45 EZ- ECB Policy Decision
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
9-Dec Fri
02:00 CN- CPI
09:30 GB- Trade
15:00 US- University of Michigan Survey


Trading Themes--
  • The Italian Referendum today, is a high-profile event. Some are touting the vote as indirect referendum on the Euro. If these reforms are defeated, the Renzi government could fall. The ECB has assured markets that it has the capacity to buy Italian government bonds temporarily if needed.

  • The U.S. November employment data on Friday was a mixed bag. The 178K increase in Jobs was in line with street estimates, but was nothing to write home about. The surprising fall in the unemployment rate to 4.60% from 4.90% was due mainly to another decline in the Labor Participation Rate and the -0.1% fall in Average Hourly Earnings was a big disappointment.

  • I see no chance the data will change Fed intentions to raise rates on December 14. Monthly Job statistics and inflation are the two top items on which the FOMC monetary bases its policy decisions. Markets are running 100% odds on a 25bp Fed Funds target increase.

  • The U.S. Presidential vote recount is an ongoing uncertainty. U.S. Green Party candidate Jill Stein, with Clinton help, is supporting recounts in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Odds in favor a reversal of the Trump victory are very slim.

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founder Global-View.com


CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Markets

GVI Trading Jay Meisler 19:19 GMT December 4, 2016
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dc CB 17:51 GMT December 4, 2016
We have killed capitalism
Reply   
there are no markets, only machines
(intv)

Jim Sinclair

GVI 17:30 GMT December 4, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:
Reply   
Report: Exit polls indicate Austria populist right-wing challenger Norbert Hofer (46.4%) has lost to to Van der Bellen (53.6%), Green party leader in contest for President.

>> source: wire services.

GVI Trading john bland 16:51 GMT December 4, 2016
Monday Trading

Register for the Amazing Trader

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GVI Trading Statistical Market BIAS Indicators--

The Fed Funds Market Sentiment Barometer reflects current sentiment about a future change in Fed policy. Odds for one rate hike by yearend late Friday are: +100% from +100% late Thursday.

PAR 15:59 GMT December 4, 2016
ITALY
Reply   
Can € 350 billion of NPL's disappear over a referendum weekend ? YES / NO . I guess NO.

A YES means Renzi becomes Mussolini with dictatorial powers . A NO means Italy remains a democracy with all its problems .

Whatever the result GS Draghi will rescue the markets and the Italian banking oligarchs with a new Ponzi play .

GVI Trading john bland 14:08 GMT December 4, 2016
Far right has second chance in Austrian presidential election -- Reuters.com
Reply   
"Austria will provide a new gauge of the populist wave sweeping Western democracies on Sunday, as the divided country holds an election that could deliver the first freely elected far-right head of state in Europe since World War Two.

The knife-edge presidential run-off is all the more dramatic for being a re-run of an election held six months ago - before Britain chose to leave the European Union and Americans elected Donald Trump as president - offering an indication of whether popular anger at the political establishment has grown...."

Far right has second chance in Austrian presidential election -- Reuters.com

GVI Trading john bland 13:59 GMT December 4, 2016
Monday Trading

Italian referendum today:
- Poll close at 17:00 ET (22:00 GMT). Exit polls are expected and a partial count of the votes.
- Analysts expect a reliable idea of the results today/early Monday at approx 22:00 ET (03:00 GMT).

GVI Trading john bland 13:57 GMT December 4, 2016
Commitment Of Traders Report for 2 December 2016

If you trust the COT data as an accurate portrait of positions generally, it says positions in EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD are being mostly wound down. This is a logical possibility.

GVI Trading john bland 13:52 GMT December 4, 2016
Commitment Of Traders Report for 2 December 2016
Reply   
Heavy shorts remained in EURUSD



Market longs in JPY eliminated. Now dead flat.


GBP positions a touch shorter.

GVI Trading john bland 13:27 GMT December 4, 2016
Monday Trading
Reply   
Italian referendum today:
- Poll close at 17:00 ET (22:00 GMT). Exit polls are expected and a partial count of the votes.
- Analysts expect a reliable idea of the results today/early Monday at approx 22:00 ET (03:00 GMT).

GVI Trading john bland 13:23 GMT December 4, 2016
Green Party ends statewide Pennsylvania recount bid -- NYPost.com

Green Party challenge to the election results is not over yet, but it is losing steam. Any change to the results required victories in Michigan, Wisconsin AND Pennsylvania.

Green Party ends statewide Pennsylvania recount bid -- NYPost.com

GVI Trading 13:19 GMT December 4, 2016
Green Party ends statewide Pennsylvania recount bid -- NYPost.com
Reply   
"HARRISBURG, Pa. — A Green Party-backed campaign changed its strategy to force a statewide recount of Pennsylvania’s Nov. 8 presidential election, won by Republican Donald Trump, and said late Saturday night that it will seek help in the federal courts, rather than the state courts.

The announcement that it would seek an emergency federal court order on Monday for a recount came hours after it dropped a case in the state courts..."


Green Party ends statewide Pennsylvania recount bid -- NYPost.com

PAR 08:55 GMT December 4, 2016
RBS
Reply   
Royal Bank OF Scotland could be hit with a fine of up to £12bn for its role in the American sub-prime mortgage meltdown, the Bank of England’s stress tests suggest.

A penalty on that scale would be £3bn more than the most aggressive market forecasts and the largest fine yet imposed on a bank in relation to activities blamed for causing the financial crisis.

GVI Forex Blog 02:13 GMT December 4, 2016
GVI Data Calendar for 5 December 2016
Reply   

December 3, 2016 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Monday, December 5, 2016.

  • Far East: No Major Data
  • Europe: EZ/GB- Service PMIs, EZ- Retail Sales,
  • North America: US- Service PMIs

WEEKLY Forex Economic Calendar:
5-Dec Mon
All Day- final Service PMIs
6-Dec Tue
04:30 AU- RBA Policy Decision
10:00 EZ- GDP
13:30 US- Productivity
7-Dec Wed
00:30 AU- GDP
15:00 CA- BOC Policy Decision
15:30 US- EIA Crude
23:50 JP- GDP
8-Dec Thu
02:00 CN- Trade
12:45 EZ- ECB Policy Decision
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
9-Dec Fri
02:00 CN- CPI
09:30 GB- Trade
15:00 US- University of Michigan Survey

GVI Data Calendar for 5 December 2016

 




Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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