GVI Trading john bland 21:58 GMT December 7, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:
Moodys lowers Italy l-t debt issuer outlook to negative from stable. Holds rating at Baa2
>> TTN.com
GVI Trading john bland 20:55 GMT December 7, 2016
Thursday Trading
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GVI Trading Statistical Market BIAS Indicators--
The Fed Funds Market Sentiment Barometer reflects current sentiment about a future change in Fed policy. Odds for one rate hike on December 14 are +100%.
GVI Trading john bland 20:52 GMT December 7, 2016
Thursday Trading
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WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:
8-Dec Thu
02:00 CN- Trade
12:45 EZ- ECB Policy Decision
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
9-Dec Fri
02:00 CN- CPI
09:30 GB- Trade
15:00 US- University of Michigan Survey
Trading Themes--
- Thursday features a key monetary policy decision by the ECB. No major changes in policy are expected. The ECB is expected to extend its quantitative ease for another six months. We are also nearing the time when the central bank must start to prepare markets for a gradual tapering its expansive monetary policy posture. This might or might not be the meeting for that signal. Expect EURUSD to react either way.
- The U.S. calendar is fairly light in terms of U.S. market moving events with only Weekly Jobless Claims due. Australian 3Q16 GDP data released early Wednesday fell by -0.5% qq (+1.8% yy). Additional soft Aussie data would be needed to trigger a RBA policy easing. U.K. October output data were surprisingly weak.
- We are confident in our expectation that the Fed will raise rates by 25bps on December 14. Monthly Job statistics and inflation are the two top items on which the FOMC monetary bases its policy decisions.
- The U.S. Presidential vote recount is an ongoing uncertainty. Odds in favor a reversal of the Trump victory are very slim.
John M. Bland, MBA
co-founder Global-View.com
Mtl JP 19:38 GMT December 7, 2016
Wednesday Trading
for now dlrcad not taking notice of crude's heave
maybe an opportunity...
london red 19:13 GMT December 7, 2016
Wednesday Trading
yen trying but unable to take full advantage of stock rally given bond yields drifting lower. 11402/11 might get more excitement if can go abv but looks a big ask at this stage. like to 10y bounce well off 2.32
london red 19:09 GMT December 7, 2016
Wednesday Trading
JP u can draw a line along the bottom of that to give u a triangle. tom i dare say they will break out one side pull in some money at the extreme then fade it and go the other way, thats the usual order of things. euro has been quite firm for best part of two wks but draghi does have the ability to change that. as ever reaction to what appears to be gd/bad news is always the key. if mkt returns to pre data lvl after a biggish move, likely to flip hard the other way.
london red 19:06 GMT December 7, 2016
Wednesday Trading
Jp, borrowing money to buy is just plain daft, if you do you deserve to lose just to stop you doing it again imo. Stock buying should be done unleveraged be it individual stocks, funds or eft (and no double or triple ups here either). If you cant afford that then wlak away and come back when you can. You can use leveraged products to hedge st downside risks when you see fit. Thats the only way leverage should be used when it comes to the sm for normal folk. You cannot afford to blow up your retirement fund which for most folk is what stocks are about.
Mtl JP 18:31 GMT December 7, 2016
Wednesday Trading
the "better to keep buying as even if it falls 5% in one hour" better be unleveraged
Mtl JP 18:18 GMT December 7, 2016
Wednesday Trading
euro stuck between 1.07/1.08 for now
trying to keep it simple
london red 18:17 GMT December 7, 2016
Wednesday Trading
stocks are always a buy, its in no ones interests to bust the casino as you cant get your winning even if you do. better to keep buying as even if it falls 5% in one hour and things change you will still be many multiples of that up if you have been buying dips. if something is being pushed higher may as well profit from it, i really cannot be clearer. if you stand aside you make nothing.
Bali Sja 18:12 GMT December 7, 2016
Wednesday Trading
All they care is propping up stocks then all is good. Easily manipulated.
london red 17:56 GMT December 7, 2016
Wednesday Trading
i dont see much downside per ecb. the mkt attaches some risk that the ecb gets taken along by the reflation theme and does less than the mkt expects thus raising the euro. i dont believe they will send such a signal but its poss and mkt wont push downside til out of way.
Belgrade Knez 17:19 GMT December 7, 2016
Wednesday Trading
london red
do you see EU going lower, please?
thank you.
london red 16:51 GMT December 7, 2016
Wednesday Trading
yen. weak close to hourly candle, if can break 47/50 then could tap daily tenkan by 11308 and 50% at 11305. you expect them to buy dip there but youd want to see a decent tail on hourly candle the top of the hour following the dip to sup.
london red 16:11 GMT December 7, 2016
Wednesday Trading
not a convincing candle for eurgbp as far as downside is concerned, gbp still going to under pressure.
GVI Trading Jay Meisler 16:02 GMT December 7, 2016
Wednesday Trading
Note GBPUSD low was at 200 hour mva
london red 15:59 GMT December 7, 2016
Wednesday Trading
yen. testing 47/50 sup, if done shud spike dwn thru 200hma not far below but q will be whether they buy dip to close hr back abv 200hma.
GVI Trading Jay Meisler 15:46 GMT December 7, 2016
Wednesday Trading
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EURGBP came off its high but it was a pop in GBPUSD as EURUSD squeezed through 1.0750 and stops. Key area is at 1.0786 as it protects 1.0797 high. HOD so far 1.0768 and no longer getting a boost from EURGBP, which has to hold .8527 to keep the bid.
Never underestimate an Amazing Trader directional risk setup as what looked like a modest setup in EURUSD turned into a near 60 pip move from low to high.
GVI Trading john bland 15:43 GMT December 7, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:
WTI down on build in overall energy complex. Distillates and Gasoline inventories were up.
Mtl JP 15:39 GMT December 7, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:
CB 15:35 usdcad thanks u 4 the good news *-^
london red 15:38 GMT December 7, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:
eurgbp. nice wick building on hourly candle, potentially marking a st top if can stick. thru 8500 they are likely to dump it.
Mtl JP 15:28 GMT December 7, 2016
Wednesday Trading
Buy USDCAD
Entry: 1.3250/00 Target: 1.34/35/36 Stop: 20-ish pips under 1.32
.
Mtl JP 15:23 GMT December 7, 2016
Wednesday Trading
gbpusd heading for yellow line
print abouve 1.2650 would say otherwise
trying to keep it simple
london red 15:09 GMT December 7, 2016
Wednesday Trading
has to raise as 100% but will be a v dovish raise. so mkt will spike usd higher then take profit over the following 24hrs. if they mention usd in statement mkt wont like it and will sell heavily usd as it wud be first mention of such in statement.
Mtl JP 15:06 GMT December 7, 2016
Wednesday Trading
nh 14:32 / re "is everything on hold waiting for the Fed"
Consider the possibility that the a-political janet is going to try to kneecap (+0.5/ + 1.0%) donald
london red 14:58 GMT December 7, 2016
Wednesday Trading
i would add, if sellers are to come in, it will close at the rollover around 8475 or lower.
london red 14:56 GMT December 7, 2016
Wednesday Trading
use the 21dma by 40 58 and 78. abv 78 will be stops. this week saw 1.20 (8333) tested and will have resulted in a lot of hedging activity below 8333, but if to turn lower cannt beat prev high by 78.
london red 14:45 GMT December 7, 2016
Wednesday Trading
yen. still in buy dip mode but getting stale without 115 barrier break. 10dma and yest low by 11347/50 a trigger for stops but even so youd expect them to buy the dip
london red 14:42 GMT December 7, 2016
Wednesday Trading
lrg 10750 ex drawing, maybe some movement after but might be a stretch pre ecb.
Livingston nh 14:32 GMT December 7, 2016
Wednesday Trading
Seems the shelf life of "important" events is shrinking -- OPEC agreement, NFP, trade deficit Italian non-event or econ data on GBP or AUD - even the Taiwan phone call// is everything on hold waiting for the Fed?
GVI Trading Jay Meisler 14:27 GMT December 7, 2016
Wednesday Trading
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EURUSD extending day high, directional risk shown by the Amazing Trader well in advance.
As noted in our daily meeting, EURGBP (firm) driving the bus today, weighing on GBPUSD and lifting EURUSD.
1.0748 is next res if it holds above 1.0738, 1.0750 would be neutral and the ultimate bias setter.
GVI Forex Blog 14:24 GMT December 7, 2016
GVI Data Calendar for 8 December 2016
Reply
December 7, 2016 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Thursday, December 8, 2016.
- Far East: AU/JP/CN- Trade, JP- GDP
- Europe: EZ- ECB Decision
- North America: US- Weekly Jobless, Natural Gas, 30-yr Auction
WEEKLY Forex Economic Calendar:
8-Dec Thu
02:00 CN- Trade
12:45 EZ- ECB Policy Decision
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
9-Dec Fri
02:00 CN- CPI
09:30 GB- Trade
15:00 US- University of Michigan Survey
GVI Data Calendar for 8 December 2016
GVI Trading john bland 14:13 GMT December 7, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:
Italian PM Renzi confirms he will resign today
>> TTN.com
Limassol Trade360 14:04 GMT December 7, 2016
Crowd Trading
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GVI Trading john bland 13:36 GMT December 7, 2016
Wednesday Trading
Equities easier
DAX +140
DJ -6
SP -2
10-yr 2.375% -1.7bp
GVI Trading john bland 12:06 GMT December 7, 2016
Wednesday Trading
Equities Mild Risk On
DAX +158
DJ +15
SP +1
10-yr 2.365% -2.7bp
GVI Trading 11:53 GMT December 7, 2016
Citi says behaved appropriately in sterling flash crash -- Reuters.com
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"Citi (C.N) said on Wednesday that its trading operations functioned appropriately in a thin and illiquid market during October's "flash crash" in sterling, responding to a Financial Times report that a trader at the U.S. bank exacerbated the pound's fall. The FT cited unnamed bankers and officials as saying that Citi’s traders were not believed to have started the slide in the currency but that its Tokyo desk played a key role in sending the pound to its lowest levels in 31 years.
"Sterling fell sharply following a news event just after midnight UK time, when the GBP spot foreign exchange market was extremely illiquid," Citi, the biggest player in the $5 trillion a day global currency market, said..."
Citi says behaved appropriately in sterling flash crash -- Reuters.com
london red 11:12 GMT December 7, 2016
Wednesday Trading
eurgbp. if rebound going to fail, it will happen from 8540-8580 the prev high.
Hong Kong 10:35 GMT December 7, 2016
AceTrader Dec 7: Intra-Day News and Views GBP/USD
Reply
07 Dec 2016 10:15GMT
GBP/USD - 1.2595... The British pound remained under pressure n continued to edge lower in Asia and hit 1.2622 at European open due partly to cross-selling of sterling especially vs euro.
Intra-day decline accelerated in European morning after the release of poor UK industrial and manufacturing output data and dropped to 1.2581 before stabilising.
Offers are now seen at 1.2610/20 n more above at 1.2630/40 with stops building up above there whilst initial bids are noted at 1.2520/30, suggesting choppy trading with downside bias would be seen.
GVI Trading john bland 09:55 GMT December 7, 2016
Wednesday Trading
WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:
7-Dec Wed
00:30 AU- GDP
15:00 CA- BOC Policy Decision
15:30 US- EIA Crude
23:50 JP- GDP
8-Dec Thu
02:00 CN- Trade
12:45 EZ- ECB Policy Decision
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
9-Dec Fri
02:00 CN- CPI
09:30 GB- Trade
15:00 US- University of Michigan Survey
Trading Themes--
- The next major trading event this week is the ECB monetary policy decision on Thursday. No major changes in policy are expected. The ECB is expected to extend its quantitative ease for another six months, but some expect the central bank to start to set prepare markets for the start of a gradual tapering its expansive monetary policy posture.
- Australian 3Q16 GDP data released earlier today fell by -0.5% qq (+1.8% yy). Yesterday the RBA kept interests rates steady at 1.50%. Additional soft data would be needed to trigger a policy easing. U.K. October output data today were surprisingly weak.
- We are confident about Fed intentions to raise rates on December 14. Monthly Job statistics and inflation are the two top items on which the FOMC monetary bases its policy decisions. Markets are running 100% odds on a 25bp Fed Funds target increase.
- The U.S. Presidential vote recount is an ongoing uncertainty. Odds in favor a reversal of the Trump victory are very slim.
John M. Bland, MBA
co-founder Global-View.com
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk On
GVI Trading john bland 09:36 GMT December 7, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:
Big miss in UK output data
GVI Trading john bland 09:30 GMT December 7, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:
UK Industrial/Manufacturing Output October 2016
-- NEWS ALERT --
Ind mm: -1.30% vs. 0.20% exp. vs. -0.40% prev.
Mfg mm: -0.90% vs. +0.20% exp. vs. +0.60% prev.
TTN: Live News Special Offer
Brisbane Flip 09:10 GMT December 7, 2016
Statement by Philip Lowe, Governor: Monetary Policy Decision
Don't worry JP I do.
It amazing watching work experience journalists "cite" the evidence of the past 25 years as to why "once more" it won't mean a recession is coming and will again be a "one off abberation". I guess if I was someone who never seen a recession (as all workers younger than mid forties hasn't) it is natural to think they don't exit.
As you know, I did live in Ireland though and saw the same phenomenon.
Mtl JP 08:59 GMT December 7, 2016
Statement by Philip Lowe, Governor: Monetary Policy Decision
Flip 08:08 re "That economists and commentators can be so conditioned to think this is the norm (despite the tsunami of RE units coming down the pipe and tightening of credit conditions) scares me." rather than be scared why not see it as a contrarian trade opportunity ?
Brisbane Flip 08:08 GMT December 7, 2016
Statement by Philip Lowe, Governor: Monetary Policy Decision
I have not seen one economist nor news service even entertain the idea this GDP is anything but a one off blip on the road to Nirvana.
The level of group think is astonishing even by todays goldilocks analytical couch potatoes. Australia has not had a negative year of growth in a quarter of century and this is only the 4th quarter in that time. The past three singular negative Quarters were due to a drift off after Sydney Olympics surge in 2000, during the height of the GFC and a quick the shock of Cylone Yasi in 2011. That economists and commentators can be so conditioned to think this is the norm (despite the tsunami of RE units coming down the pipe and tightening of credit conditions) scares me.
e.g. the Australian stock market went up by 1% on todays news.
PAR 07:49 GMT December 7, 2016
Thank you Donald
Reply
I take profit on all my stock market positions . Stay strategically long EURUSD and I am off to the beautifull ski slopes of Grandvalira in Andorra .
It was a wonderful year but the markets are becoming too political .
See you next year .
Singapore 05:22 GMT December 7, 2016
USD/CAD Forex Trading Tips
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In Forex Market USD/CAD is going down.
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SELL USDCAD 1.3280 TARGETS 1.3255 1.325 STOPLOSS 1.3310
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Rachel
Paris ib 04:38 GMT December 7, 2016
Statement by Philip Lowe, Governor: Monetary Policy Decision
Australia is heading for a recession. Interest rates are unlikely to fall in the short term as the risk premium goes up. The RBA can do whatever it likes foreign lenders set roll over rates and the want higher rates. Today's GDP was bad... more coming. AUD at risk. But then the entire ANGLO space is at risk. Those huge external deficits...
Hong Kong 01:38 GMT December 7, 2016
AceTrader Dec 7: Intra-Day News and Views AUD/USD
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07 Dec 2016 01:11GMT
AUD/USD -.... Aussie fell from Asian 0.7474 high to 0.7418 after release of downbeat Australian GDP data.
Reuters reported Australia's economy shrank for the first time in over five years last quarter as businesses, consumers and government all cut back on spending, an unexpected blow that will challenge policymakers' optimism for growth.
The local dollar AUD=D4 sank about half a cent after the Australian Bureau of Statistics reported gross domestic product (GDP) fell 0.5 percent in the third quarter, from the second when it rose a revised 0.6 percent.
That was the first contraction since early 2011 and only the fourth since the country's last recession in 1991.
The value of all goods and services was 1.8 percent higher than the same quarter last year, pulling back sharply from around 3.1 percent in the second quarter.
Business investment was the biggest drag with miners still unwinding a decade-long spending boom, while home building retreated after a very strong run.
The contraction was a major embarrassment to the conservative government of Malcolm Turnbull which won an election in July on a promise of delivering growth and jobs.
It was also chastening for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) which has recently been sounding more upbeat on the economic outlook.
The bank conceded growth would slow when it held rates at 1.5 percent this week, but also predicted an eventual pick up.
So far, investors seem to share the RBA's optimism as rate futures 0#YIB: imply scant chance of another rate cut in the next few months, though all thought of a hike has also vanished.
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