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Forex Forum Archive for 12/11/2016

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GVI Trading john bland 21:38 GMT December 11, 2016
Forex Trading Themes For Monday 12 December 2016

EURUSD 1.0560
USDJPY 115.39
GBPUSD 1.2574
USDCHF 1.0169

dc CB 20:54 GMT December 11, 2016
Wash Post claims the Russians got Trump Elected

A Christmas Carol, 2016, the Ghost of McCarthy Past

as seen

GVI Forex Blog 19:04 GMT December 11, 2016
GVI Data Calendar for 12 December 2016
Reply   

.

December 11, 2016 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS Monday, December 12, 2016.

  • Far East: No Major Data
  • Europe: No Major Data
  • North America: US- 3- & 10-yr Auctions

WEEKLY Forex Economic Calendar:
12-Dec Mon
No Major Data
13-Dec Tue
09:30 GB- CPI/RPI
14-Dec Wed
09:30 GB- Employment
13:30 US- Retail Sales
13:30 US- PPI
14:15 US- Industrial Production
15:30 US- Crude Oil
18:00 US- FOMC Decision
15-Dec Thu
00:00 All-Day- flash PMIs
00:30 AU- Employment
08:30 CH- SNB Decision
09:30 GB- Retail Sales
10:00 DE- ZEW Survey
12:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
13:30 US- CPI
13:30 US- Current Account
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
16-Dec Fri
10:00 EZ- final HICP
13:30 Housing Starts/Permits

GVI Data Calendar for 12 December 2016

GVI Trading john bland 17:12 GMT December 11, 2016
Shrinking FX market could pose stability risk: BIS -- Reuters.com

Article says avg daily volume has fallen to $5.1tn from 5.4tn three years ago. Still huge...

GVI Trading john bland 17:10 GMT December 11, 2016
Shrinking FX market could pose stability risk: BIS -- Reuters.com
Reply   
"Hedge funds and speculative investors have pulled back from the $5 trillion a day global currency market and less risk-taking by banks as well as reduced trading on multi-player platforms is a risk to future financial stability, the Bank of International Settlements said on Sunday.

In analysis expanding on September's triennial report on the world's single biggest financial market, economists from the bank and Warwick Business School Professor Michael Moore pointed to changes the Basel-based central banks' central bank said should be of "first order" concern to regulators globally..."

Shrinking FX market could pose stability risk: BIS -- Reuters.com

dc CB 15:35 GMT December 11, 2016
Wash Post claims the Russians got Trump Elected

Let me count the reasons why They Will Never Give Up.

Clinton’s losing campaign cost a record $1.2B

GVI Trading john bland 15:31 GMT December 11, 2016
Forex Trading Themes For Monday 12 December 2016

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GVI Trading Statistical Market BIAS Indicators--

The Fed Funds Market Sentiment Barometer reflects current sentiment about a future change in Fed policy. Odds for one rate hike on December 14 are +100%.

GVI Trading Jay Meisler 13:53 GMT December 11, 2016
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GVI Forex Blog 13:47 GMT December 11, 2016
Forex Trading Themes For Monday 12 December 2016
Reply   


Forex Trading Themes--
  • The U.S. economic calendar is light Monday and Tuesday, but it picks up by mid-week. The U.K. calendar is busy this week. Markets can react as strongly to U.K. data as they do to U.S. reports. British data comes out early in the day and can set the tone for other trading relationships. So these releases should be watched.

  • The Major event of the week ahead is the FOMC policy decision on Wednesday. It is widely anticipated that the central bank will raise the mid-point of its 0.25%-0.50% target range (0.375%) for Fed Funds by 25bps to 0.625%. This change has been repeatedly signaled by Fed speakers, and money market indicators say that decision makers have placed 100% odds on this rate adjustment. In earlier times, markets would not react much when something that was widely expected took place, but we are in the era of news algos today and seemingly they do not know what we know. They just mindlessly react to headlines. So the Fed rate hike could trigger price volatility.

  • More important than the expected rate announcement will be what Fed Chair Yellen will have to say about the expected future course of policy. With the U.S. moving to a more expansive fiscal policy and the economy already showing signs of coming back to life, I expect Chair Yellen to take a less dovish posture on future rate moves. Obviously she has to be cautious about the future, but odds are the tone of her comments will change and they should be USD constructive.

  • ECB President Draghi was playing a semantics game Thursday when he announced a "taper" of its asset purchases to EUR 60b per mo from EUR80b starting in April 2017. Draghi claimed it was not a "taper" but of course it was, and it generated a "taper tantrum" in EURUSD. I took his dovish policy tone as an effort to "soften" the blow to Eurozone markets. Despite his comments, I feel the ECB is unlikely to increase asset purchases again, except under an extreme circumstances.


WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:
12-Dec Mon
18:00 US 10-yr Auction
13-Dec Tue
09:30 GB- CPI/RPI
14-Dec Wed
09:30 GB- Employment
13:30 US- Retail Sales
13:30 US- PPI
14:15 US- Industrial Production
15:30 US- Crude Oil
18:00 US- FOMC Decision
15-Dec Thu
00:00 All-Day- flash PMIs
00:30 AU- Employment
08:30 CH- SNB Decision
09:30 GB- Retail Sales
10:00 DE- ZEW Survey
12:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
13:30 US- CPI
13:30 US- Current Account
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
16-Dec Fri
10:00 EZ- final HICP
13:30 Housing Starts/Permits

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founder Global-View.com


CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk On

Forex Trading Themes For Monday 12 December 2016

GVI Forex Blog 01:28 GMT December 11, 2016
Is the EURUSD Headed for 1.05 or Else?
Reply   

With EURUSD failing to hold 1.08+ after the ECB delivered on a taper but offset it with tweaks to its asset buys and dovish talk from Draghi. This sets the stage for a key event week where the focus will be on what the FOMC statement and Chair Yellen say rather than what the Fed does as a 25bp rate hike is widely expected

Is the EURUSD Headed for 1.05 or Else?

NY JM 01:16 GMT December 11, 2016
eurusd

If it wasn't for the FOMC meeting this would normally be the start of pre-XMAS book squaring by mid-week. In any case we are all looking at the same levels, 1.0505 (and 1.0500) and 1.0459 on the downside while the upside is far from key levels so use 1,0600 and 1.0630 as resistance with 1.0580 standing in front of it. We will see how much firepower is in the market after the wide swings seen at the start and towards the end of last week. Given the way the market reacts to news, what is for sure is the forex market will move on the FOMC.

 




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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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