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Forex Forum Archive for 12/15/2016

Pick a date from the header above to view forum postings for that day.
Click here to join the Live Forex Forum.


GVI Trading 21:20 GMT December 15, 2016
Dollar soars to 14-year highs on Fed, Trump plans -- Reuters.com
Reply   
"The U.S. dollar surged to a 14-year high against a basket of major currencies on Thursday, on investor anticipation of a more hawkish Federal Reserve and a boost in U.S. economic growth under President-elect Donald Trump. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six major rival currencies, rose to a roughly 14-year high of 103.560, on track for the biggest daily percentage gain in nearly six months.

The dollar's gains, which put it close a 14-year high against the euro and nearly a 10-1/2-month high against the yen, comes a day after the Fed raised interest rates for the first time in a year and signaled it was likely to increase them three more times in 2017, up from the two increases forecast at the central bank's September meeting..."

Dollar soars to 14-year highs on Fed, Trump plans -- Reuters.com

GVI Trading john bland 21:02 GMT December 15, 2016
Friday Trading Ideas
Reply   

Register for the Amazing Trader

1.


GVI Trading Statistical Market BIAS Indicators--
The Fed Funds Market Sentiment Barometer reflects current sentiment about a future change in Fed policy. Odds for rate hikes at the June 17, 2017 meeting are +100% for +25bp, plus 10% odds on +25bp more by then.

EURUSD MACRO statistical Bias: down
Spot EURUSD: 1.0415
20-day avg: 1.0611
Pivot Point: 1.0440

GVI Forex Blog 20:51 GMT December 15, 2016
Forex Pre-Market Trading Ideas For Friday 15 December 2016
Reply   


Pre-Market Forex Trading Ideas for Fri 16 Dec 2016

Forex Trading Outlook

  • The USD continued to advance against the majors Thursday as the prospect of widening interest rate differentials supported the unit. The economic calendar is a lot lighter Friday following a pre-holiday period data dump on Wednesday and Thursday. From Europe, only final November HICP data are due. Revisions to the flash estimates usualy are insignificant. The U.S. only issues Housing Starts and Permits early in the day. While closely followed, they usually do not have a major impact on trading.

  • Key for traders Thursday, the SNB kept monetary policy steady. The central bank pledged to remain active in Swiss Franc intervention. Some say their intervention can have a major impact (indirect) on EURUSD..

  • U.S. markets should have been set up for the Fed policy decision. but apparently they were not. As expected, the FOMC raised the mid-point of its 0.25%-0.50% target range (0.375%) for Fed Funds by 25bps to 0.50% to 0.75% (0.625%). The Fed "Dot-Plot" forecasts for interest rates were raised in response to recent economic developments. Chair Yellen was less dovish, but remained cautious.

  • Fed "dot-plot" forecasts by individual policy board members increased to three from two the number of expected Fed fund rate hikes next year. Since their inception, the "dot plot" forecasts have been notoriously overly-optimistic.


WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:
16-Dec Fri
10:00 EZ- final HICP
13:30 Housing Starts/Permits

19-Dec Mon
14:45 US- flash Markit Service PMI
20-Dec Tue
03:00 JP- BOJ Meeting
21-Dec Wed
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude
22-Dec Thu
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
13:30 US- GDP
13:30 US- PCE Deflator
23-Dec Fri
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- University of Michigan Survey


John M. Bland, MBA
co-founder Global-View.com


CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-On

Forex Pre-Market Trading Ideas For Friday 15 December 2016

GVI Forex Blog 20:38 GMT December 15, 2016
CHART POINTS: Free Forex Database
Reply   

forex rate database image

Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for more than a dozen currency pairs for over seventeen years of data in an Excel spreadsheet format

CHART POINTS: Free Forex Database

GVI Forex Blog 20:31 GMT December 15, 2016
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-On
Reply   

Table of Key Current Market Rates

Late in N.Y., equity markets are holding onto moedest net positive gains in the wake of the positve comments by the Fed Wednesday

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-On

london red 20:31 GMT December 15, 2016
Thursday Trading Ideas

euro. 10395 is sup. if it holds can try higher again. if fails retest of lower and rebound likely done. if can move higher that selling range mentioned still stands.

dc CB 19:34 GMT December 15, 2016
STOX

nh
Quad Witching is laying the opportunity.
Baring a "coup", which is doublful, Dow 20K and higher going forward.

Re: Electors

Are Standing Strong By The Will Of Our Voters" - GOP Crushes Democrats' Hopes, Confirms Electors Back Trump

london red 19:05 GMT December 15, 2016
STOX

nh. u get 2 or 3 dips a year. buy them.

euro. just a q of how far they want to pull it back but sell on rally with aim to close under 105 and 10462 tom.

uk rg 18:52 GMT December 15, 2016
candle
Reply   
Crude
Entry: Target: Stop:

test

Livingston nh 18:27 GMT December 15, 2016
STOX
Reply   
The US might be in a new equity BULL market -- there has been no chance to get in w/o chasing it and the end of day moves are up // New highs are not impressive and internals are mixed BUT PRICE keeps rising

Livingston nh 18:22 GMT December 15, 2016
They will never give up.

In some states an attempt to influence an Elector is a Felony - these people are selected by the candidate's Party and when you vote you are voting for the Elector pledged

SaaR KaL 18:05 GMT December 15, 2016
Gold long term

Link Video DC

dc CB 18:02 GMT December 15, 2016
Gold long term

SaaR KaL 17:59 GMT
No offence DC
But BS is BS my friend

?????

SaaR KaL 18:00 GMT December 15, 2016
Cable is buy at will now
Reply   
It is done

SaaR KaL 17:59 GMT December 15, 2016
Gold long term

No offence DC
But BS is BS my friend

SaaR KaL 17:56 GMT December 15, 2016
Gold long term

Agree DC

where it can be used

SaaR KaL 17:55 GMT December 15, 2016
What seems to be losers for long time
Reply   
Just might be winners longer term
SIRI
Monthly

Trade Range 1 4.7180 3.6162
Trade Range 2 4.8863 3.4069
Expected Values
10-Oct-18 5.1411
13-Aug-20 5.7930
8-Aug-22 8.9437


daily
Trade Range 1 4.7499 4.2390
Trade Range 2 4.8387 4.1251
Expected Values
16-Jan-17 4.8190
14-Feb-17 4.9287
16-Mar-17 4.9523

dc CB 17:54 GMT December 15, 2016
Gold long term

PS --- Even in war, I think a cruise missle uses several kilos.

GVI Forex Blog 17:53 GMT December 15, 2016
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-On
Reply   

Late in Europe, equity prices are ending higher on the day. U.S. equities are up as well. Bond prices are down, which means yields have up across the board. In forex trading, the USD broadly higher following a more hawkish than expected outcome to the FOMC.

Table of Key Current Market Rates

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-On

dc CB 17:53 GMT December 15, 2016
Gold long term

Silver being tied to Gold--as a PM, is providing a buying opp, IF the resurgence is real. Silver is an industrial metal used up in the manufacture of electronics, solar devices....etc.
If there is a real "Trump" recovery, silver will become dear.

SaaR KaL 17:46 GMT December 15, 2016
Gold long term

I am a little long on eurjpy
Trade Range 1 125.5710 121.2472
Trade Range 2 126.2381 120.5374
Expected Values
14-Jan-17 131.6405
12-Feb-17 132.8068
16-Mar-17 131.8980

London AzaForex 17:38 GMT December 15, 2016
Strategy and research analyst on currency pair USDTRY 12-15-
Reply   


Buy OTHER
Entry: Target: Stop:

Strategy and research analyst on currency pair USDTRY 12-15-2016 by AzaForex forex broker

SaaR KaL 17:36 GMT December 15, 2016
Gold long term
Reply   
1000 seems like ok
as pivot value

Trade Range 1 1,170.4184 1,119.9036
Trade Range 2 1,177.9087 1,110.7900
Expected Values
14-Jan-17 1,036.1515
12-Feb-17 1,052.7356
16-Mar-17 996.5474
weekly
Expected Values
13-May-17 1,088.7714
9-Oct-17 1,282.4246
14-Mar-18 1,295.6479

Expected Values
11-Oct-18 1,356.0200
13-Aug-20 1,011.6407
8-Aug-22 1,048.1954


HPQ is Better then Gold
Trade Range 1 16.9997 14.1416
Trade Range 2 17.4776 13.6060
Expected Values
15-May-17 18.7528
10-Oct-17 25.1144
16-Mar-18 20.6592

SaaR KaL 17:27 GMT December 15, 2016
Thursday Trading Ideas

I closed my shorts on eurusd
waiting for a correction
to 1.07...then i will short again
Might drop and keep on...but i can not let it correct while i am short

Mtl JP 17:24 GMT December 15, 2016
They will never give up.

exactly what is the text of the "legal duty to vote for the president-elect" ?

SaaR KaL 17:21 GMT December 15, 2016
Thursday Trading Ideas

I agree EURUSD will drop
But not parity by dec/30th IMO

dc CB 17:18 GMT December 15, 2016
They will never give up.
Reply   
Electors around the country are being harassed with a barrage of emails, phone calls and letters — and even death threats — in an effort to block Donald Trump from being voted in as president by the Electoral College on Monday.

Electors are being harassed, threatened in bid to stop Trump

Belgrade Knez 17:17 GMT December 15, 2016
Thursday Trading Ideas


SaaR KaL 17:09 GMT 12/15/2016 - My Profile
EURUSD
I doubt hits parity on year end
1.03 to 1.02 is possible

we had 300 pips drop ystd and today ... so another 300 for next 11 days!

SaaR KaL 17:15 GMT December 15, 2016
Thursday Trading Ideas

USA Interested rates
TYX Index
Trade Range 1 3.2482 3.0400
Trade Range 2 3.2868 3.0010
Expected Values
17-Jan-17 3.6839
15-Feb-17 4.1124
17-Mar-17 4.3270

dc CB 17:12 GMT December 15, 2016
Thursday Trading Ideas

shooting yourself in the foot.

Reuters World ‏@ReutersWorld 33m33 minutes ago
BREAKING: EU leaders agree on extension of economic sanctions against Russia over Ukraine for six months: diplomats

dc CB 17:10 GMT December 15, 2016
Thursday Trading Ideas

Low, Oct 1 2000: 8227 on my wayback charts

SaaR KaL 17:09 GMT December 15, 2016
Thursday Trading Ideas

EURUSD
I doubt hits parity on year end
1.03 to 1.02 is possible

Trade Range 1 1.0833 1.0374
Trade Range 2 1.0915 1.0301
Expected Values
14-Jan-17 1.0265
12-Feb-17 1.0146
16-Mar-17 1.0014

Mtl JP 17:04 GMT December 15, 2016
Thursday Trading Ideas

CB ... bye bye Euro = 0.0000 ?

dc CB 17:00 GMT December 15, 2016
Thursday Trading Ideas



DRAGHI SAYS CONCERNS OVER AVAILABILITY OF COLLATERAL HAVE RISEN: BBG.

bye bye Euro....how many years ago was that, when it was in the 90's...was in the 1990's??

london red 16:59 GMT December 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

what i mentioned earlier is taking place in earnest right now, overtaking the yen and moving lower despite yields and spreads having paused. we are close to a pullback but shud still end wk below 10462. eurjpy is well dwn on the day now and just starting to affect usdjpy.

Belgrade Knez 16:56 GMT December 15, 2016
Thursday Trading Ideas


Possible parity in EURUSD by the end of the year?

SaaR KaL 16:55 GMT December 15, 2016
2 stocks are off the wall
Reply   
From the charts they seem to want dive big time
My output says the exact opposite
(No Idea.... I bought calls on X)

C City
Trade Range 1 61.7534 57.7860
Trade Range 2 62.5104 57.0969
Expected Values
16-Jan-17 70.7260
14-Feb-17 73.4554
16-Mar-17 74.7199

X American Steel

Trade Range 1 41.1795 33.7494
Trade Range 2 42.5942 32.4427
Expected Values
16-Jan-17 62.8953
14-Feb-17 76.9034
16-Mar-17 81.5896

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 16:55 GMT December 15, 2016
Thursday Trading Ideas

Price action in EURUSD further suggests market was not setup timing wise for the breakout to tje downside. Next target 1.0350, key level as below would put 1.02 on radar

Mtl JP 16:51 GMT December 15, 2016
Thursday Trading Ideas

time approaching for doland tweet(s)
maybe on or after the 19th ?

Opinion: How Yellen disses Trump without really trying
When asked what the economy needs, she describes Clinton’s plan

Mtl JP 16:17 GMT December 15, 2016
Trade Off The Cretins Corner

poloz n wilkins

live

GVI Forex Blog 16:08 GMT December 15, 2016
GVI Data Calendar for 15 December 2016
Reply   

Forex Data Calendar For TradersFriday features final November EZ inflation. These data rarely change much. the U.S. Releases the latest Housing Starts and Permits Report.

December 15, 2016 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS Friday, December 16, 2016.

  • Far East: No Major Data
  • Europe: EZ- final HICP
  • North America: US- Housing Starts and Permits, Rig Count, COT Report

WEEKLY Forex Economic Calendar:
16-Dec Fri
10:00 EZ- final HICP
13:30 Housing Starts/Permits

GVI Data Calendar for 15 December 2016

SaaR KaL 16:05 GMT December 15, 2016
Cable getting bullish

EURGBP...might short next day

Trade Range 1 0.8499 0.8254
Trade Range 2 0.8539 0.8218
Expected Values
14-Jan-17 0.8013
12-Feb-17 0.7731
16-Mar-17 0.8347

SaaR KaL 15:53 GMT December 15, 2016
Cable getting bullish

GBPCHF
Trade Range 1 1.3047 1.2728
Trade Range 2 1.3099 1.2677
Expected Values
14-Jan-17 1.3536
12-Feb-17 1.3830
16-Mar-17 1.2735

GVI Trading john bland 15:50 GMT December 15, 2016
Thursday Trading Ideas

Register for the Amazing Trader

1.


Amazing Trader EURUSD charts updated on your systems

Mtl JP 15:41 GMT December 15, 2016
Trade Off The Cretins Corner

Poloz's gang will not be raising rates next week nor next month
usdcad = BoD

Financial System Review - December 2016

SaaR KaL 15:31 GMT December 15, 2016
Cable getting bullish

Gold
Trade Range 1,170.4184 1,120.7928

14-Jan-17 1,036.2805
12-Feb-17 1,052.8084
16-Mar-17 996.6186

Oil
Trade Range 55.9861 48.9397

14-Jan-17 64.1537
12-Feb-17 53.7555
16-Mar-17 61.8911

GVI Trading john bland 15:31 GMT December 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

US EIA Weekly Natural Gas Inventories (bcf)

U.S. Data Charts




ALERT
-147 vs. -120 exp vs. -47 prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Belgrade Knez 15:22 GMT December 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:


london red

thank you.

Mtl JP 15:20 GMT December 15, 2016
Thursday Trading Ideas

ET 15:09 what will you do on DJ 20K print: add or bag ?

london red 15:19 GMT December 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

when i trade i first look at where i can put my stop. if its not sheltered by gd sup/res, then the trade i want to do gets crossed off. the key is to not lose money. we can all pick good trades, but most cannot avoid bad ones. a bad one would be trying to pick a bottom. i would rather sell rallies and thats whats behind that idea - if seen, do.
i would say the mkt isnt as short as last time we were at 105 and the time before, as the shallow bounces will confirm but you aren't getting any stops down here either. mkt will want to squeeze spec short stops but that will only happen when yields give up a bit or usd gets ahead of itself which might just be beginning to happen now.

SaaR KaL 15:15 GMT December 15, 2016
Cable getting bullish

bought AMGN Puts here
TGT 136 area

Mtl JP 15:12 GMT December 15, 2016
Trade Off The Cretins Corner

BOC Financial System Review at bottom of hour

Press conference by Governor Stephen S. Poloz and Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Wilkins. (11:15 (ET) approx.)
-----
I ll be looking to BoD

Financial System Review - Press Conference (Webcasts) - December 2016

Wall Street ET 15:09 GMT December 15, 2016
Thursday Trading Ideas

Rotation out of bnds into stocks continues?

Belgrade Knez 15:08 GMT December 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:


london red

do you think that euro will not see range 1.0460 and above, or this still possible before new down move?

thank you.

london red 15:06 GMT December 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

JP, even if u do away with yields just plot a chart of the euro and the 10y tick. they have been moving pretty much in tandem. but spreads overall massively moved in favour of usd. that is in the price tho, we need more to get more. 10y thru 2.64 shud extend the bar further. for now 257 and 253 would be sup there.

GVI Trading john bland 15:01 GMT December 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

Much better than forecast... Trump effect?

GVI Trading john bland 15:00 GMT December 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

U.S. NAHB Index December 2016

U.S. Data Charts




NEWS ALERT
70 vs. 63 exp. vs. 61 (r) prev.

RELEASE: NAHB Index


TTN: Live News Special Offer

Haifa ac 14:59 GMT December 15, 2016
FX Market Conditions

Good point, Zeus.
Do you have a hunch which markets will be more prone for such long swings? will it be commodities (i.e. several years inflation)? will it be currencies? Equities (any specific sectors)??

Mtl JP 14:58 GMT December 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. flash Markit Manufacturing PMI Better

red 14:56 thks for mentioning the yield spreads and flow
I ve been thinking posting that meme earlier but hesitated for some reason

london red 14:56 GMT December 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. flash Markit Manufacturing PMI Better

as we get into new yr bar will be initially high for us data. fed will need to prepare mkt frm feb for a march/april hike. or not as the case may be. for now, while yield spreads sup usd, go with the flow. yen 11951 poss tom if theey put the hammer dwn.

Mtl JP 14:55 GMT December 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

markit = no reaction trade for me

GVI Forex Blog 14:53 GMT December 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. flash Markit Manufacturing PMI Better
Reply   

U.S. flash Markit Mfg PMI. A touch stronger than estimated. This remains a second-tier released. Final data come out at the start of the new month.


U.S. flash Markit Manufacturing PMI

BREAKING NEWS: U.S. flash Markit Manufacturing PMI Better

GVI Trading john bland 14:46 GMT December 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

U.S. flash Markit Mfg PMI December 2016





ALERT
54.2 vs. 54.1 exp. vs. 54.1 prev.



TTN: Live News Special Offer

Markit PMI Press Release

GVI Forex Blog 14:46 GMT December 15, 2016
Price action vs other trading strategies in the forex market
Reply   

There are a number of different ways of trading the financial instrument in the world. Some of the traders use different kinds of indicators and some use plain chart to trade the different assets in the market. Profits can be made in a number of different ways but it is extremely important to have a valid trading strategy for consistent profit

Price action vs other trading strategies in the forex market

Mtl JP 14:41 GMT December 15, 2016
Thursday Trading Ideas

14:45 B US flash MKT MFG PMI
could actually be an A risk

dc CB 14:38 GMT December 15, 2016
Oil Prices Consolidate Near $50 Per Barrel Following Inventory Reports

the collapse of the OPEC sez: Were Gonna Cut production meme is causing hosed longs to bail. As of Wed close there was an extimated 200,000 contracts Open in the Jan contract...which expires Wed.
That times 1000bls per or 200M bls

dc CB 14:34 GMT December 15, 2016
Thursday Trading Ideas

Cash now open for Full On Quad Witching insanity.
Next one isn't till March.

SaaR KaL 14:27 GMT December 15, 2016
Cable getting bullish

USDCAD 1.3430 tops

Mtl JP 14:23 GMT December 15, 2016
Cable getting bullish

KaL 10:04 how far u willing to let the short usdcad stretch uP ?

london red 14:23 GMT December 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Weekly Jobless About Steady

10yr yield monthly kijun 2.57 so while that holds then usd weakness shud be slight. so worth keeping an eye on that.

london red 14:22 GMT December 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Weekly Jobless About Steady

its a range for any countertrend bounce. within that range is a reasonable place to get involved with short euro. i am certainly not betting it will get up there however, that is entirely diff. just to be clear.

LONDON SFH 14:18 GMT December 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Weekly Jobless About Steady

red
It is trading 10432 and you have a range of 10462 to 10520?

london red 14:15 GMT December 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Weekly Jobless About Steady

euro. 10462-70 may work. stops abv 82 might be enough but best to assume 10462-10520 range stop over 10540

tokyo joyya 14:08 GMT December 15, 2016
long jpy!

SaaR KaL 14:04 GMT 12/15/2016

i agree with you Kaal san next year usdjpy want 130/135.....happy trade,

SaaR KaL 14:04 GMT December 15, 2016
long jpy!

is what i got
USDJPY
14-Jan-17 128.1846
12-Feb-17 130.8852
16-Mar-17 131.6667

next entry near 114.5 IMO
just a correction from 118.5

GVI Forex Blog 13:54 GMT December 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Weekly Jobless About Steady
Reply   

U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims in line. They remain reange bound.

<Click on chart for over twelve-year history

BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Weekly Jobless About Steady

LONDON SFH 13:52 GMT December 15, 2016
long jpy!

Saar

So it is going to get to 128 in 4 weeks and you're looking for a 3.5big fig retrace and potentially miss out on the next 10?

USA ZEUS 13:48 GMT December 15, 2016
FX Market Conditions
Reply   
It's been quite a long while (a few years) where markets have been less vulnerable to consistent large swings and trends without all the chop and back-filling.
CB policy correlations with ZIRP have left traders to blame lifeless markets on dealer algos and HFT machines.

However, it would appear that market liquidity and flows are returning back to a state of "normalcy" for those who are prepared to crush it.

GLGT!!

SaaR KaL 13:44 GMT December 15, 2016
Today will cable and short USDCAD
Reply   
Cable longs some now
will add 1.2430 and 1.2400

USDCAD shorts adding

GVI Forex Blog 13:44 GMT December 15, 2016
Breaking News: U.S. CPI Mostiy As Expected
Reply   
U.S. headline CPI y/y edges up a bit as expected. Core CPI y/y flat as predicted. Nothing here is likely to elicit a Fed response. FOMC targets core PCE.

U.S. CPI Chart

Breaking News: U.S. CPI Mostiy As Expected

SaaR KaL 13:43 GMT December 15, 2016
long jpy!

I closed my long USDJPY
rebuy later 114.5 area

london red 13:35 GMT December 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

they may manufacture a small rally which should fail between 10470-10520 at best followed by a friday close under prev cycle low of 10462.

GVI Trading john bland 13:35 GMT December 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

Empire and Philly Fed much better than expected. Other data more or less as expected

london red 13:34 GMT December 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

real wkly earnings dwn -0.3% but euro remains a sell on rallies.

GVI Trading john bland 13:34 GMT December 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

U.S. CPI November 2016

U.S. Data Charts





ALERT
Headline:
m/m: +0.20% vs. +0.20% exp. v +0.40% pre
y/y: +1.70% vs. +1.70% exp. v +1.60% pre
Core:
y/y: +2.10% vs. +2.20% exp. v +2.10% pre


RELEASE: Consumer Price Index


TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Trading john bland 13:32 GMT December 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:


U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims

U.S. Data Charts






NEWS ALERT

Initial Claims (000)
254 vs. 256K exp. vs. 258K (r) prev.

TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Trading john bland 13:31 GMT December 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

U.S. Current Account 3Q16 (USD bln)




ALERT
-113.0 vs. -111.0 exp. vs. -120.0 (-118.3) prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Trading john bland 13:31 GMT December 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

U.S. Philly Fed Index December 2016

U.S. Data Charts




NEWS ALERT

+21.5 vs. +9.00 exp. vs. +7.60 prev.



TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Trading john bland 13:30 GMT December 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

Empire PMI November 2016

U.S. Data Charts




ALERT
+ 9.0 vs. +3.00 vs. +1.50 prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer

Livingston nh 13:30 GMT December 15, 2016
Thursday Trading Ideas

JP - the market doesn't move nobody makes money // re: CNY- it's been moving BUT if the Fed is truly not going to wait until Yellen's last meeting to hike again the HKD peg y be the surprise

Mtl JP 13:24 GMT December 15, 2016
Thursday Trading Ideas

red, nh... did you see the PBoC squeal about some imagination of global dis-order on fast-rising rates stronger driven dollar ? sounds like the Chinese cretins are dissing janet, her rosy economic data hallucinations and associated enthusiasm for rate hikes

Qtn: isn't that what traders thrive on: volatility, preferably fast and massive ?

Mtl JP 13:16 GMT December 15, 2016
Amazing Trader Meeting

Jay Meisler 11:51 exactly what surprise did the market move on
- FED gang being behind the curve
- players realizing Fed gang not mattering to the market anymore ?
or ???
tia

tokyo joyya 13:11 GMT December 15, 2016
long jpy!

any idea why turkish lira very weak?TIA

tokyo joyya 13:10 GMT December 15, 2016
long jpy!
Reply   
Sell USDJPY
Entry: 118.5 Target: open Stop: later

sold abit......happy trade,

fukuoka joyya 13:10 GMT December 15, 2016
long jpy!
Reply   
Sell GBPJPY
Entry: 148 Target: open Stop: later

sold abit......

tokyo joyya 13:09 GMT December 15, 2016
long euro!
Reply   
Buy EURUSD
Entry: 1.04 Target: open Stop: add later

bout a bit.....happy trade,

Livingston nh 13:06 GMT December 15, 2016
Thursday Trading Ideas

German, Italian and Spanish 10s are down 19-20/32nds // US only 10/32 -- UK gilts whacked harder

And amusing is the dot plot commentary on TV and on-line // these are unidentified PARTICPANT views - next year MEMBERS (voters) 2 and a half hawks are being replaced by 3 doves

Mtl JP 12:46 GMT December 15, 2016
Thursday Trading Ideas

10-yr yields indications
src: cnbc

us - german - censored

Livingston nh 12:42 GMT December 15, 2016
Thursday Trading Ideas

Looking at 10 yrs in EU it seems ECB raised rates o/n

london red 12:06 GMT December 15, 2016
Thursday Trading Ideas

just b careful here if opening fresh euro shorts, i wud be more comfortable if 10y can move thru 2.64 as german bund now playing catch up. this is no reason for euro to go up to 107 but it could give back half a fig in terms of a healthy ocrrection. there shud now be plenty of sellers by 10450 and the prev cycle low 10462.

Haifa ac 12:05 GMT December 15, 2016
EURUSD 10523 confirmed

Great call.

GVI Trading john bland 12:00 GMT December 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

December 2016 Bank of England Policy Decision







-- NEWS ALERT --

Policy Steady (repo rate 0.25%)

vote 9-0 for steady policy
Bank of England




TTN: Live News Special Offer

london red 11:58 GMT December 15, 2016
Thursday Trading Ideas

uk mpc shud be non event in terms of action 60pip straddle.

GVI Trading Jay Meisler 11:51 GMT December 15, 2016
Amazing Trader Meeting
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london red 11:49 GMT December 15, 2016
Thursday Trading Ideas

JP, cable is going towards parity, but not yet. that card is for coming years.

Mtl JP 11:40 GMT December 15, 2016
Thursday Trading Ideas

red 11:38 I like your optimism

london red 11:38 GMT December 15, 2016
Thursday Trading Ideas

cable by spreads shud be by 1.20 but weight of shorts is holding back falls. i think after a brief rally in january can fall substantially.

london red 11:37 GMT December 15, 2016
Thursday Trading Ideas

small barrier at 104 bigger at 103. some sup may come in once 104 hit as yields stopped extending (bund starting to move). pre 2000 lows c 10260.

GVI Trading 11:35 GMT December 15, 2016
Thursday Trading Ideas

Last time EURUSD traded below 1.00 was on Dec 6, 2002

GVI Trading john bland 11:29 GMT December 15, 2016
Thursday Trading Ideas

weak EURUSD constructive for EZ equities.

GVI Trading john bland 11:22 GMT December 15, 2016
Thursday Trading Ideas

EURUSD downside stops run 1.0432 new LOD. Inevitable.

GVI Trading john bland 11:20 GMT December 15, 2016
Thursday Trading Ideas

Equites Risk-On
DAX +80
DJ+51
SP +5

10-yr 263.2% +6.0bp

GVI Trading john bland 11:12 GMT December 15, 2016
Thursday Trading Ideas

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GVI Forex Blog 11:10 GMT December 15, 2016
Is EURUSD Headed for Parity?
Reply   

1.


The EURUSD continues to look heavy as it probes for recent historical lows. Its HOD (much earlier) has been 1

Is EURUSD Headed for Parity?

london red 11:09 GMT December 15, 2016
Thursday Trading Ideas

2.64 is a prev high on the 10y, one of a few clustered there 264 269 282 ahead of the major prev high at 3.03/04. currently mkt is pricing in move thru 100 month ma, a move that can be worth 30-50 bps. the 100 month is 2.49.

GVI Trading john bland 10:59 GMT December 15, 2016
Thursday Trading Ideas

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london red 10:17 GMT December 15, 2016
Dollar for 2017?

for 2017 all i will say is that we will have to trade prartially within prev yrs ranges unless mkt is to sharply increase value of usd. in terms of yearly charts that would mean 130-140 yen and below 90 cents euro if we are to trade only minimally within last years ranges. anything else and you would expect at least 5 yen within last years range and euro at least 5 figs as well. a year is a long time.

SaaR KaL 10:04 GMT December 15, 2016
Cable getting bullish

I suggest short USDCAD near / above
1.3343
tgt below 1.2800

SaaR KaL 10:01 GMT December 15, 2016
Cable getting bullish

EURGBP expected
14-Jan-17 0.8014
12-Feb-17 0.7732
16-Mar-17 0.8348

.8500 shorts seem ok till Feb

SaaR KaL 09:57 GMT December 15, 2016
Cable getting bullish

USDJPY...you seen nothing yet
Expected values
USDJPY
14-Jan-17 128.0792
12-Feb-17 130.7813
16-Mar-17 131.5609

GBPJPY
14-Jan-17 163.8908
12-Feb-17 171.5915
16-Mar-17 157.8053

LONDON SFH 09:54 GMT December 15, 2016
Dollar for 2017?
Reply   
What do we think of the $ for 2017? Post FOMC, we see $ strength trends continuing but going into the new year, it is the consensus trade....

SaaR KaL 09:54 GMT December 15, 2016
Cable getting bullish

Cable mean expectations
14-Jan-17 1.2828
12-Feb-17 1.3149
16-Mar-17 1.2018

london red 09:50 GMT December 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS: EZ flash PMIs Mixed To Better vs. Estimates

you had the extended black friday/cyber monday effect which pulled in sales frm early dec plus any continuing sterling effect and of course the cbi report pointed to a stronger november. the black friday week borrowed frm dec so it will be interesting to see if strerling effect can mitigate that drawdown. you would think so as we are a gd deal lower than dec 2015 on sterling and the xmas holiday period is one that can draw tourists at the expense of other countires trade over the festive period.

SaaR KaL 09:49 GMT December 15, 2016
Cable getting bullish
Reply   
order longs
1.2463
to 1.2400
tgt 1.2878
for Jan/2017

GVI Forex Blog 09:48 GMT December 15, 2016
Forex Trading Ideas For Thursday 15 December 2016
Reply   


Forex Trading Ideas for Thu 15 Dec 2016

Forex Trading Outlook

  • The USD is putting in a strong performance in the wake of the Fed policy decision on Wednesday. Thursday sees a slew of data pushed forward due to holidays next week. U.K. retail sales data will likely be another market-moving release (data beat). A BOE policy decision is due as well. U.S. featured releases are: CPI and Weekly Jobless Claims.

  • Australian November employment data were stronger than forecast, with both headline and underlying figures improved. The SNB kept policy steady as expected. The bank pledged to remain active in Swiss Franc intervention. Flash PMIs out of Japan and the EZ have improved.

  • U.S. markets should have been set up for the Fed policy decision. but apparently they were not. As expected, the FOMC raised the mid-point of its 0.25%-0.50% target range (0.375%) for Fed Funds by 25bps to 0.50% to 0.75% (0.625%). The Fed "Dot-Plot" forecasts for interest rates were raised in response to recent economic developments. Chair Yellen was less dovish, but remained cautious.

  • Fed "dot-plot" forecasts by individual policy board members increased to three from two the number of expected Fed fund rate hikes next year. Since their inception, the "dot plot" forecasts have been notoriously overly-optimistic.


WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:
15-Dec Thu
00:00 All-Day- flash PMIs
00:30 AU- Employment
08:30 CH- SNB Decision
09:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
13:30 US- CPI
13:30 US- Current Account
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
16-Dec Fri
10:00 EZ- final HICP
13:30 Housing Starts/Permits


John M. Bland, MBA
co-founder Global-View.com

Forex Trading Ideas For Thursday 15 December 2016

GVI Trading john bland 09:44 GMT December 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS: EZ flash PMIs Mixed To Better vs. Estimates

Red nice call on Retail sales.

GVI Forex Blog 09:41 GMT December 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS: U.K. Retail Sales Solid
Reply   

U.K. Retail Sales stronger than forecast. This is a strong performance in light of the October surge. October data were revised down slightly. GBP positive data.

U.K. Retail Sales chart

BREAKING NEWS: U.K. Retail Sales Solid

london red 09:36 GMT December 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

3 yards 105 to go today should shackle mkt if there abouts ny session

GVI Trading john bland 09:32 GMT December 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

U.K. Retail Sales beat estimates..

GVI Trading john bland 09:32 GMT December 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

U.K. Retail Sales November 2016

U.K. Charts




-- NEWS ALERT --

mm: +0.20% v +0.10% exp. vs. +1.90% (r +1.80%) prev.
x-fuel & autos
mm: +0.50% v 0.00% exp. vs. 2.00% (r +1.90%) prev.

RELEASE: UK Retail Sales


TTN: Live News Special Offer

london red 09:23 GMT December 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS: EZ flash PMIs Mixed To Better vs. Estimates

uk sales. shud a gd beat frm a one off factor plus a general positive tone frm retailers comments november.

GVI Forex Blog 09:16 GMT December 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS: EZ flash PMIs Mixed To Better vs. Estimates
Reply   

EZ flash PMIs Manufacturing PMIs improving on weaker Euro. Services PMIs miss due to ongoing domestic economic sluggishness. Final PMIs are released at the start of each new month.



 EZ flash PMI data chart

BREAKING NEWS: EZ flash PMIs Mixed To Better vs. Estimates

kl fs 09:14 GMT December 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

red, despite all that would be interesting to see how players juggling position ahead of long holidays until second week of january
thin volume markets soon, nobody wants to be the last one out

london red 09:12 GMT December 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

euro. triangle holding upper now 105 lower 10470. a break below and staying below pts to 10450 barrier test. vital to get a close below 105 today and this wk below 10462 even better to draw in sellers nxt wk.

GVI Trading john bland 09:00 GMT December 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

EZ Flash PMIs December 2016





ALERT
EZ
mfg: 54.9 vs. 53.7 exp. vs. 53.7 prev.
svc: 53.1 vs. 53.7 exp. vs. 53.8 prev.

German
mfg: 55.5 vs. 54.5 exp. vs. 54.3
svc: 53.8 vs. 54.6 exp. vs. 55.1

France
mfg: 53.5 vs. 51.9 exp. vs. 51.7
svc: 52.6 vs. 51.6 exp. vs. 51.6


Markit PMI Press Release



TTN: Live News Special Offer

london red 08:44 GMT December 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

snb was in the mkt yesterday ny, smoothing. but if euro moves to lower band vs usd, the snb will have to pick its battles.
euro cycle low 10462 if broken exposes 10450 barrier. below there i can see v little reg option cover, maybe end nxt wk a 101, but v little inbetween. lt fibs at 10116 (38.2 065/160) and 10065 (23.6 082/160 will be tgts if thus far cycle low taken. hourly chart showing triangle structure. upper channel of this comes in at 10507 dropping about 3 pips evry hour. while this caps, bears in charge.

GVI Trading john bland 08:33 GMT December 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

SNB says it will remain active in forex markets...

GVI Trading john bland 08:31 GMT December 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

DE flash PMI 55.5

GVI Trading john bland 08:30 GMT December 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

SNB as expected

GVI Trading john bland 08:30 GMT December 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

Swiss National Bank Decision December 2016





DATA NEWS

Swiss National Bank
Target Left Unchanged (-0.75%)
Libor target unchanged (-1.25% to -0.25%)


TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Forex Blog 08:26 GMT December 15, 2016
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off
Reply   

Early in Europe, equity markets are mixed following a mostly weaker Far East session. Global fixed income markets have seen prices marked lower (yields higher) due to the Fed hike decision yesterday. The USD is broadly higher.

Table of Key Current Market Rates

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off

Mtl JP 08:20 GMT December 15, 2016
Thursday trades
Reply   
A trio of A-grade risk to wallet at bottom of hour:

CH SNB
DE flash SVC PMI
DE flash MFG PMI
srce: gv calendar

Mtl JP 08:00 GMT December 15, 2016
Wash Post claims the Russians got Trump Elected

nh 19:33 GMT December 12, 2016
Wash Post claims the Russians got Trump Elected: Reply
Here's the way this shakes out - Trump is a bully so if you go after the King you better kill the King... and...this better stop quickly

NBC News
Division of: NBC
Key people: Steve Burke (President & CEO of NBCUniversal)
Deborah Turness (President of NBC News)
Andrew Lack (Chairman of NBCUniversal News Group)
- wiki

Are the above idiots or heros ?

NBC News: U.S. Officials: Putin Personally Involved in U.S. Election Hack

SaaR KaL 07:31 GMT December 15, 2016
USDCAD
Reply   
Target from here is 1.2800
USDJPY Longs till March

Check this out...Video as well

HK [email protected] 07:30 GMT December 15, 2016
Strong USD means US export to the garbage.


Haifa

You answered with a question.

The big issue will be with China, which if not taxed 35% as Trump promised, will have a monster export to the US.

Something is to explode soon on the China-US issue soon.

Haifa ac 07:21 GMT December 15, 2016
Strong USD means US export to the garbage.

What if the "strong" dollar simply reflects the much greater "weakness" of the other currencies?!

HK [email protected] 07:10 GMT December 15, 2016
Strong USD means US export to the garbage.
Reply   


Either the US will place high importation taxes and break trade agreements or try to weaken the USD by other ways.

US factory layoffs are on the way?

Trump mentioned once that a strong USD is impeding the economy.
So he has now a small problem ahead.

GVI Trading 06:55 GMT December 15, 2016
Dollar near 14-year peak after Fed increases rate hike projections -- Reuters.com
Reply   
"TOKYO, Dec 15 The dollar hovered near a 14-year peak against a basket of major currencies on Thursday, receiving a major boost after the Federal Reserve increased the number of projected interest rate hikes for 2017. In a closely watched decision on late Wednesday, the U.S. central bank raised the target federal funds rate by 25 basis points to between 0.50 percent and 0.75 percent.

The rate hike was fully expected by the financial markets and the real mover came from the Fed signalling three hikes in 2017, up from around two flagged at its September policy meeting..."

Dollar near 14-year peak after Fed increases rate hike projections -- Reuters.com

Mirdiff Mike 06:47 GMT December 15, 2016
USD/CHF Forex Market Forecast

Buy USDCHF
Entry: Target: Stop:

Singapore..... Can u pls provide ur link

Singapore 06:43 GMT December 15, 2016
USD/CHF Forex Market Forecast
Reply   
The USD/CHF pair is seen holding ground well above 1.02 handle, as the USD bulls still remain underpinned by Fed’s hawkish stance heading into the SNB monetary policy assessment due later in the session ahead.

To the upside, the next resistance is located at 1.0257/59 (multi-month high/ daily R1) and above which it could extend gains to 1.0300 (round figure) and 1.0331 (Nov 2015 high) next. To the downside, immediate support might be located at 1.0200 (zero figure) and below that 1.0173 (5-DMA) and from there to 1.0145/42 (10 & 20-DMA).

Currently the exchange rate of USD/CHF is 1.0232.

Our Recommendation:
USD/CHF is going high in Forex market and it is recommended to buy.

Get Forex Trading Signals on daily basis with 3 days free trial.

Rachel

GVI Forex Blog 06:38 GMT December 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS: Japan flash Mfg PMI Improves
Reply   

Japan Mfg PMI chart

EARLIER: Japan flash PMI improves. The Japanese Manufacturing PMI is a second-tier report, but it is still interesting when viewed in the context of other such reports. The data clearly are improving.

BREAKING NEWS: Japan flash Mfg PMI Improves

GVI Trading john bland 06:36 GMT December 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

Japan flash PMI December 2016





EARLIER NEWS ALERT
51.9 vs. n/a exp. vs. 51.3 prev.

Markit PMI Press Release



TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Forex Blog 06:24 GMT December 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS: Australia Employment Imroved
Reply   

Australia Employment data chart
EARLIER: November Employment data improved by much more than expected. Full time jobs up by 39.3K. October jobs revised higher. The unemployment rate was driven uo by an higher labor participation rate.

BREAKING NEWS: Australia Employment Imroved

GVI Trading john bland 06:21 GMT December 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

Australia Employment November 2016




-- EARLIER NEWS --
Employment: 39.1 vs. +20.0K exp. vs. -9.8K (r +15.2) prev.
Rate: 5.70% vs. 5.60% exp. vs. 5.60% prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer

abs,gov.au


GVI Trading john bland 06:21 GMT December 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

Australia Employment November 2016




-- EARLIER NEWS --
Employment: 39.1 vs. +20.0K exp. vs. -9.8K (r +15.2) prev.
Rate: 5.70% vs. 5.60% exp. vs. 5.60% prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer

abs,gov.au


Hong Kong 02:12 GMT December 15, 2016
AceTrader Dec 15: Intra-Day News and Views USD/JPY
Reply   
15 Dec 2016 02:00GMT

USD/JPY - ..... Dlr surged to a fresh 10-month peak of 117.86 n despite early release of upbeat Japanese data. Reuters reported Japanese manufacturing activity grew at the fastest pace in almost a year in December as new orders improved in a sign that domestic demand is gathering strength, a survey showed on Thursday.

The Flash Markit/Nikkei Japan Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for December rose to a seasonally adjusted 51.9 from a final 51.3 in November.
The index remained above the 50 threshold that separates expansion from contraction for the fourth consecutive month and showed activity expanded at the fastest pace since January.

The index for new orders, which measures both domestic and external demand, rose to a preliminary 52.8 from 51.1 in the previous month, also the highest in 11 months.
However, the flash index for new export orders eased slightly to 51.7 from 51.9 in the previous month.

Sentiment among large manufacturers hit a one-year high in December as a weak yen brightened the outlook for exports, the Bank of Japan's closely-watched tankan business sentiment survey showed on Wednesday.
Companies also maintained upbeat capital expenditure plans in the tankan survey, suggesting the economy will pick up pace next year.

dc CB 01:40 GMT December 15, 2016
NOT the Onion
Reply   
Updated: 18:01 EST, 14 December 2016

A Wikileaks envoy today claims he personally received Clinton campaign emails in Washington D.C. after they were leaked by 'disgusted' whisteblowers - and not hacked by Russia.
Craig Murray, former British ambassador to Uzbekistan and a close associate of Wikileaks founder Julian Assange, told Dailymail.com that he flew to Washington, D.C. for a clandestine hand-off with one of the email sources in September.

'Neither of [the leaks] came from the Russians,' said Murray in an interview with Dailymail.com on Tuesday. 'The source had legal access to the information. The documents came from inside leaks, not hacks.'

His account contradicts directly the version of how thousands of Democratic emails were published before the election being advanced by U.S. intelligence.


EXCLUSIVE

Mtl JP 00:33 GMT December 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

ozz emploayment : +39.1 vs 17.5 exp

dc CB 00:27 GMT December 15, 2016
NOT the Onion
Reply   
EXCLUSIVE
News Dec 14 2016, 6:31 pm ET
U.S. intelligence officials now believe with "a high level of confidence" that Russian President Vladimir Putin became personally involved in the covert Russian campaign to interfere in the U.S. presidential election, senior U.S. intelligence officials told NBC News.

Two senior officials with direct access to the information say new intelligence shows that Putin personally directed how hacked material from Democrats was leaked and otherwise used. The intelligence came from diplomatic sources and spies working for U.S. allies, the officials said.

Putin's objectives were multifaceted, a high-level intelligence source told NBC News. What began as a "vendetta" against Hillary Clinton morphed into an effort to show corruption in American politics and to "split off key American allies by creating the image that [other countries] couldn't depend on the U.S. to be a credible global leader anymore," the official said

U.S. Officials: Putin Personally Involved in U.S. Election Hack

 




Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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