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Forex Forum Archive for 12/17/2016

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Amsterdam NordFX 17:32 GMT December 17, 2016
Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, and USDCHF for 19 - 23 December 2016
Reply   
Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, and USDCHF for
19 - 23 December 2016

First, a few words about the forecast for the previous week, which has been almost 100% correct for all four pairs:
- The final forecast for the EUR/USD pair last week was as follows: first a rebound to the resistance at 1.0650 and then a drop to the March 2015 lows in the 1.0460 area. It also suggested a strengthening of the downward trend in the event the US Federal Reserve decided to increase interest rates. This forecast can be considered fulfilled almost completely. At the beginning of the week, as expected, the pair rose to the level of 1.0650 and then made several attempts to break higher, but was unable to overcome the 1.0670 bar. The decision of the Federal Reserve on Wednesday, 14th December delivered the expected strengthening of the dollar, and the pair initially fell to the level of 1.0470 and then even lower to 1.0366. The pair reached 1.0449 by the end of the week’s session;
- The forecast for GBP/USD stated that the pair would stay in the sideways channel of 1.2550-1.2700 for some time in the beginning of the week. It would then go down to the 1.2400-1.2500 zone. That was what actually ended up happening, allowing for a standard sway of 25 points;
- With regard to USD/JPY, a rather quiet start of the week dominated by slight bullish sentiment was assumed. Then, after the decision of the US Federal Reserve, we assumed a rise to the resistance at 118.70. This prediction proved to be correct, and on Thursday, 15th December, the pair reached a height of 118.66 before proceeding to move sideways, finishing the week in the 117.90 zone;
- The forecast for USD/CHF has not been disappointing either. According to most experts, graphical analysis, and indicators on H4 and D1, the pair was supposed to revisit the 2015 maximum of 1.0300. That is what it did, even managing to exceed the expectations of the task by reaching a height of 1.0343.
***
Forecast for the upcoming week:
Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and brokerage companies, as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:

- A few months ago, we published the opinions of a number of experts suggesting that EUR/USD would seek to achieve an exchange rate parity of 1.0000 in the upcoming year (2017). It seems that this forecast is coming true. At least 60% of analysts, 85% of indicators, and graphical analysis on D1 believe that in the near future the pair will continue to fall at least to the 1.0300-1.0350 area. It is worth noting that the pair has fallen so low that, when determining the support level, it is necessary to work not just with the data for the last two years, but also with that from 1997-2003.
An alternative point of view is expressed by the remaining 40% of experts and the numerous oscillators, which indicate that the pair has been oversold. According to their forecast, the pair has reached its local minimum, so in the foreseeable future will be moving in a sideways channel with a Pivot Point of 1.0500;

- With regard to the future of GBP/USD, 60% of experts and the majority of indicators support the continuation of the downward trend, naming the support at 1.2300 as the nearest target. At the same time, graphical analysis clarifies that the pair may stay in a sideways corridor within 1.2360-1.2560 for some more time before the decline. It should be noted, however, that when giving a medium-term forecast, 70% of analysts believe that the pair should sink to the level of 1.2100;
- USD/JPY. It is clear that most of the indicators point northwards. However, a third of the oscillators indicates the pair has been overbought. Graphical analysis points to a possible downwards rebound as well, naming 115.45, 114.80 and 113.90 as support levels. As for the experts, 30% of them believe that the pair will grow to a height of 120.00. The majority, though, expect a sideways trend with a Pivot Point of 118.00;
- USD/CHF. More than half of the experts believe that the pair will try to gain a foothold above 1.0300, the main resistance being 1.0410. Graphical analysis on D1 and 95% of indicators on D1 and H4 agree with this point of view. The main support is 1.0200, with the next one being at 1.0150.
Roman Butko, NordFX
Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.
#forex #forex_forecast #eurusd #signals_forex #binary_options
http://nordfx.com/

nw kw 15:09 GMT December 17, 2016
EURUSD Commitment Of Traders Report for December 13, 2016

last one. nzdjpy up to fast.

nw kw 15:01 GMT December 17, 2016
EURUSD Commitment Of Traders Report for December 13, 2016

lng to eur

nw kw 14:58 GMT December 17, 2016
EURUSD Commitment Of Traders Report for December 13, 2016

yet ngas or eng has new plant gut planed, in parries, with plans for new plant in usa . no good reason for this.

nw kw 14:42 GMT December 17, 2016
EURUSD Commitment Of Traders Report for December 13, 2016

so chfjpy has no reason to still be in bull trend but it is. before something hits market.

nw kw 14:37 GMT December 17, 2016
EURUSD Commitment Of Traders Report for December 13, 2016

swiss

GVI Trading john bland 14:34 GMT December 17, 2016
EURUSD Commitment Of Traders Report for December 13, 2016

S&P chart is interesting also because it suggests that the preponderance of traders are hedgers...

nw kw 14:31 GMT December 17, 2016
EURUSD Commitment Of Traders Report for December 13, 2016

usa foreran bonds inflow reverse to strength.

nw kw 14:26 GMT December 17, 2016
EURUSD Commitment Of Traders Report for December 13, 2016

can you long eurusd [free QE] to get in to s&p.

GVI Forex Blog 13:38 GMT December 17, 2016
EURUSD Commitment Of Traders Report for December 13, 2016
Reply   


EURUSD Commitment of Traders Chart

This Chart fascinates me. These are positions as of the close the day before the Fed hiking decision. Look at the spot EURUSD line trend and compare it to net shorts. There is a disconnect here with net shorts FALLING as the EURUSD declines. The reduction in EURUSD shorts might go a long way to explaining why the EURUSD fell so sharply following an as expected Fed policy decision.

EURUSD Commitment Of Traders Report for December 13, 2016

GVI Trading 13:22 GMT December 17, 2016
Dollar\'s post-Fed rally pauses, U.S. stocks end lower -- Reuters.com
Reply   
"The dollar and U.S. stocks dipped on Friday, taking a breather following this week's big moves after the Federal Reserve signaled a faster pace of U.S. interest rate increases next year. U.S. Treasury debt yields inched higher, continuing a weeks-long trend. Markets appeared to be adjusting for what is expected to be a quiet holiday period for economic data.

News that a Chinese warship has seized an underwater drone deployed by a U.S. oceanographic vessel in the South China Sea sparked some worries about geopolitical tensions and added to some of the pressure in stocks...

Dollar's post-Fed rally pauses, U.S. stocks end lower -- Reuters.com

SaaR KaL 10:17 GMT December 17, 2016
USD south for 4 years

GBPAUD Shorts
Happy to do so
Trade Range 1 1.8019 1.7402
Trade Range 2 1.8130 1.7306
Expected Values
15-Jan-17 1.6186
13-Feb-17 1.5706
17-Mar-17 1.5175

SaaR KaL 10:13 GMT December 17, 2016
USD south for 4 years
Reply   
Very serious guys...from USDJPY from the last 100 (Aug) level is just a correction for the longer term south trend
this baby wants 88 to 85 Long term

Singapore 06:46 GMT December 17, 2016
Euro/USD Exchange Rate Forecast to Rise Above 1.10 through 2017
Reply   
The Euro will likely recover against the US Dollar through the course of 2017. The call for a stronger EUR/USD come at a time of intense downward pressure on the pair with many analysts now eyeing a 1:1 exchange rate being achieved in the near future. Consensus is for the EUR/USD to be at 1.03 by December 2017.

USD losing ground against the Euro through 2017. The formal tapering of asset purchases will be an issue that becomes significant for markets towards the end of 2017.

The great risk to the Euro in 2017 is seen as emanating from the politics of the European Union, rather than the Eurozone economy.
Elections in France, The Netherlands and Germany present opportunities for far-right populist movements to flex their muscles and gain political control.

What they all have in common is a desire to leave the EU, and it is feared that one or more of these, the three largest economies in the Eurozone, could end up leaving.

If not a completed withdrawal from the EU, the rise in negative sentiment may cause a flight from risky assets and home back to safety, which is likely to upset financial markets too.

Get live Forex market updates and Forex signals.

Rachel

Haifa ac 05:01 GMT December 17, 2016
HOPELESSNESS

Proverbs 30 (21-23) describes this couple perfectly:


21 For three things the earth is disquieted, and for four which it cannot bear:

22 For a servant when he reigneth; and a fool when he is filled with meat;

23 For an odious woman when she is married; and an handmaid that is heir to her mistress.




http://www.christiananswers.net/bible/prov30.html

Haifa ac 05:01 GMT December 17, 2016
HOPELESSNESS

Proverbs 30 (21-23) describes this couple perfectly:


21 For three things the earth is disquieted, and for four which it cannot bear:

22 For a servant when he reigneth; and a fool when he is filled with meat;

23 For an odious woman when she is married; and an handmaid that is heir to her mistress.




http://www.christiananswers.net/bible/prov30.html

dc CB 00:36 GMT December 17, 2016
HOPELESSNESS

At the Plaza last Nite

LOL or what's that Rm?AOff don't get that stuff

 




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