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Forex Forum Archive for 12/18/2016

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GVI Trading john bland 22:11 GMT December 18, 2016
Forex Trading Themes For Monday 19 December 2016

EURUSD 1.0444.-46
USDJPY 117.95-96
GBPUSD 1.2480-83
USDCHF 1.0265-67

GVI Forex Blog 20:42 GMT December 18, 2016
Forex Trading Themes For Monday 19 December 2016

Pre-Market Forex Trading Ideas for 19 Dec 2016

Forex Trading Outlook

  • The USD ended last week in a pre-holiday corrective mode. The week ahead is a holiday period for many key centers, mainly in Europe. The economic calendar is light. U.S. flash Markit Service PMI is the only Monday release.

  • Expect limited trader participation until after the turn of the year. Recall, limited volumes no longer always imply stable prices.

  • The markets are still digesting the more hawkish than expected Fed decision Wednesday. It continues to be a source of USD support.


19-Dec Mon
14:45 US- flash Markit Service PMI
20-Dec Tue
03:00 JP- BOJ Meeting
21-Dec Wed
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude
22-Dec Thu
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
13:30 US- GDP
13:30 US- PCE Deflator
23-Dec Fri
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- University of Michigan Survey

John M. Bland, MBA

Forex Trading Themes For Monday 19 December 2016

dc CB 16:44 GMT December 18, 2016

Clinton's Popular Vote Win Came Entirely From California

Hillary Clinton's lead in the popular vote has topped 2.8 million, giving her a 48% share of the vote compared with Trumps 46%.
To those unschooled in how the United States selects presidents, this seems totally unfair. But look more closely at the numbers and you see that Clinton's advantage all but disappears.

But California is the exception that proves the true genius of the Electoral College — which was designed to prevent regional candidates from dominating national elections.
In recent years, California has been turning into what amounts to a one-party state. Between 2008 and 2016, the number of Californian's who registered as Democrats climbed by 1.1 million, while the number of registered Republicans dropped by almost 400,000.

What's more, many Republicans in the state had nobody to vote for in November.
There were two Democrats — and zero Republicans — running to replace Sen. Barbara Boxer. There were no Republicans on the ballot for House seats in nine of California's congressional districts

Investors Business Daily

dc CB 16:38 GMT December 18, 2016

In last-shot bid, electors are urged to block Trump.

Amid the scrutiny of a divisive election, pressure on members of the country’s electoral college to select someone other than Donald Trump has grown dramatically — and noisily — in recent weeks. But although some electors appeared to waver, there is little evidence that Trump will fall short when they convene Monday.

The WashPost throws in the towel.

GVI Forex Blog 13:59 GMT December 18, 2016
GBPUSD Commitment Of Traders Report for December 13, 2016

Rounding out the key Commitment of trade reports, first markets got short GBPUSD on the Brexit vote then they stabilized. The GBP Stabilized in early October and has been recovering. This recovery as seen GBPUSD shorts gradually winding down. Many of the GBPUSD shorts were taken against the EURUSD (longs).

GBPUSD Commitment of Traders Chart

GBPUSD Commitment Of Traders Report for December 13, 2016

GVI Forex Blog 13:41 GMT December 18, 2016
USDJPY Positions Reported In Commitment of Traders Report As Of 13 December 2016
Yen positions behaving as they "should". Market have flipped from long JPY to short against the USD as the currency has weakened. Perhaps the odd behavior of EURUSD reflects EURJPY and EURGBP cross positions?

USDJPY Commitment of Traders Chart

USDJPY Positions Reported In Commitment of Traders Report As Of 13 December 2016


Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan

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