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Forex Forum Archive for 12/23/2016

Pick a date from the header above to view forum postings for that day.
Click here to join the Live Forex Forum.


GVI Trading john bland 20:42 GMT December 23, 2016
Commitment Of Traders Report for 20 December 2016
Reply   

Commitment of Trader Report Charts Trader Positions: EUR, JPY, CHF, GBP

Net EUR JPY COT Positions
Click on chart for EUR COT Details


Click on chart forJPY COT Details
X+++++ Net GBP and CHF COT Positions


Click on chart for COT Details



Click on chart for COT Details

Net AUD and CAD COT Positions


Click on chart for COT Details



Click on chart for COT Details

G+++++

Commitment of Trader Report Charts Trader Positions: CAD, AUD, Gold, Oil

Net Crude, Gold, S&P and 10-yr Positions




Click on chart for COT Details






Click on chart for COT Details






Click on chart for COT Details






Click on chart for COT Details



GVI Forex Blog 20:25 GMT December 23, 2016
Chart Points: Free Forex Database
Reply   

forex rate database image

Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for more than a dozen currency pairs for over seventeen years of data in an Excel spreadsheet format

Chart Points: Free Forex Database

GVI Forex Blog 20:11 GMT December 23, 2016
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Risk Profile
Reply   

Late in N.Y., U.S. equity markets are ending mixed. European equities were mixed. Bond prices are barely changed. In FX, EUR crosses are up while the USD is mixed.

Table of Key Current Market Rates

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Risk Profile

Amsterdam NordFX 19:49 GMT December 23, 2016
Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, and USDCHF for 26-30 December 2016
Reply   
First, a review of last week’s forecast:
- Giving the forecast for the EUR/USD pair, 60% of analysts, 85% of indicators, and graphical analysis on D1 pointed out that the pair should continue to fall to the 1.0300-1.0350 area at the very least. That was indeed what happened: on Monday the pair descended drastically and hit 1.0351 the next day, short of the intended target by just 1 point. Evidently deciding that it fulfilled its task, the pair rebounded and returned to the values of the beginning of the week;
- The forecast for the GBP/USD pair may also be considered fulfilled by at least 90%, if not 100%. Recall that the majority of experts voted for the continuation of the downward trend, naming the support at 1.2300 as the nearest target. This was reached by the pair on Thursday. After this, the support changed roles, becoming resistance. The pair rebounded off it and subsequently fell by 50 points;
- USD/JPY. Here, one third of oscillators and graphical analysis suggested a possible downwards rebound of the pair. As for the analysts, most foresaw a sideways trend with a Pivot Point at 118.00. The fact that the pair was overbought did indeed push it down at the very start of the week’s session. Then, having rebounded off the level of 116.55 as was expected by the experts, it returned to the 118.00 zone and shifted to a slightly bear-dominated lateral movement of diminishing amplitude;
- USD/CHF. Here, more than half of experts, supported by graphical analysis on D1, and 95% indicators on H4 and D1, suggested that the pair would try to gain a foothold above the level of 1.0300. However, it seems that the proximity of the Christmas holidays weakened the strength of bulls so significantly, that having reached the height of 1.0320, the pair almost immediately turned around and returned to the values of Monday, where it stayed until the end of the week.
***
The forecast for the upcoming week - the last one before the New Year:
The market’s major players have already summed up the year, and most analysts have already left for Christmas. Therefore, the forecast for this festive week is based mainly on technical analysis. No major events that could shake the financial markets, are expected in the coming days, and traders can expect a very quiet and relaxing five days ahead. Unless, of course, something extraordinary happens.
- The medium-term forecast that analysts released last week does not give a clear picture of the future of EUR/USD: 35% of them predict an upward trend, 40% a downward trend, and 25% a side movement. As for technical analysis, graphical analysis on H4, and the vast majority of trend indicators and oscillators, all of them point eastwards. Those on D1, on the other hand, indicate to the south. Based on the above, we can assume that next week the pair will move in a sideways channel in the 1.0350-1.0520 range. As for its further decline, it is necessary to take into account that at present the pair is near the bottom border of the side corridor, which was launched back in February-March 2015, and that any future strengthening of the dollar will largely depend on the actions of team of the US President elect, Donald Trump;

- In contrast to the European currency, analysts consider the British pound’s future to be more definite. Thus, in the medium term, 65% of them support a fall in GBP/USD down to the October low of 1.1940, and only 5% expect the pair's growth. 100% of indicators and graphical analysis on D1 agree with the majority of experts. However, on a shorter timeframe - specifically H4 - the forecast for the coming week includes a flat trend in the 1.2215-1.2325 range. The next resistance is at 1.2375;
- USD/JPY. It is clear that most of the indicators on D1 point northwards, with which their colleagues on H4 disagree, indicating the pair to be oversold. This opinion is shared by graphical analysis on H4, which sketches a decline of the pair to 115.50, followed by a rebound the previous week’s values in the 117.50 zone. As for the graphical analysis on D1, it foresees a lateral channel with support at 116.50 (should that be ruptured the new support will be 115.50) and resistance at 119.00. Here we can mention the upcoming speech of the Governor of the Bank of Japan Haruhiko Kuroda on Monday, 26 December - that is unlikely to seriously influence the behaviour of this pair;
- Opinions on the future of USD/CHF tend mostly towards the pair’s growth to the 1.0300-1.0400 area. This point of view is shared not only by three-quarters of analysts, but also by indicators on H4 and D1, as well as by graphical analysis using a daily time-frame. An alternative view is supported by 25% of experts and graphical analysis on H4. In their opinion, the pair should once again test the December low at 1.0000.
The next forecast will be devoted to the events of the first week of January. Dear colleagues, it seems, therefore, that now would be the time to wish you a Happy New Year!
Roman Butko, NordFX
Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.
#forex #forex_forecast #eurusd #signals_forex #binary_options
http://nordfx.com/

GVI Trading john bland 18:08 GMT December 23, 2016
Breaking News

U.S. rig count continues to grow steadily.

GVI Trading john bland 18:07 GMT December 23, 2016
Breaking News

US Weekly Baker-Hughes Rig Count

U.S. Data Charts




ALERT
Total (inc gas) U.S.: 653 vs 637 (+16) prev
US (oil): 523 vs. 510 (+13) prev

Canada 224 vs. 234 (-10) prev



TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Forex Blog 17:36 GMT December 23, 2016
GVI Data Calendar for 26 December 2016
Reply   

Forex Data Calendar For Traders 
Monday sees many market closures. Happy Holidays!

December 23, 2016 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS Monday, December 26, 2016

GVI Data Calendar for 26 December 2016

GVI Trading john bland 17:02 GMT December 23, 2016
Breaking News

FBI investigating FDIC hack...

source: TTN.com

GVI Trading john bland 16:57 GMT December 23, 2016
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Risk Profile
Reply   

Late in Europe, equity prices are closing mixed. U.S. markets are currently mixed. Fixed income prices are higher. In forex trading, the EUR is up on its crosses, except vs. the CHF. The USD is mixed.

Table of Key Current Market Rates

GVI Trading john bland 16:25 GMT December 23, 2016
Breaking News

NY Fed 4Q16 forecast unchanged at 1.80% vs 12/16

1Q17 forecast 1.80% vs 1.70%

London AzaForex 16:18 GMT December 23, 2016
Trading strategy and Analytics at the rate of GOLD 12-23-20
Reply   


Sell Gold
Entry: Target: Stop:

Trading strategy and Analytics at the rate of GOLD 12-23-2016 by AzaForex forex broker

GVI Forex Blog 15:21 GMT December 23, 2016
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. New Homes Sales Beat for November 2016
Reply   

New Homes Sales. Better than forecast. Prior data unrevised.

U.S. New Homes Sales Chart

BREAKING NEWS: U.S. New Homes Sales Beat for November 2016

GVI Forex Blog 15:11 GMT December 23, 2016
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. University of Michigan Survey Revised Up for December 2016
Reply   

University of Michigan Sentiment Survey. Final data revised higher after strong preliminary report.

University of Michigan Survey Chart

BREAKING NEWS: U.S. University of Michigan Survey Revised Up for December 2016

GVI Trading john bland 15:04 GMT December 23, 2016
Breaking News

New Homes sale up. U of M revised higher.

GVI Trading john bland 15:03 GMT December 23, 2016
Breaking News

University of Michigan Sentiment Index Final December 2016

U.S. Data Charts




ALERT
98.2 vs. 98.0 exp. vs. 98.0 preliminary


RELEASE: Index of Consumer Sentiment


TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Trading john bland 15:00 GMT December 23, 2016
Breaking News

U.S. New Home Sales November 2016



ALERT
592K vs. 575K exp. vs. 563K ( ) prev.


New Residential Sales


TTN: Live News Special Offer

Mtl JP 13:57 GMT December 23, 2016
Forex Trading Ideas 2017
Reply   


this audusd puppy is going down
sell rallies
-
tia 4 views

Mtl JP 13:46 GMT December 23, 2016
Forex Trading Ideas For Friday 23 December 2016

I do not expect either
US New Home Sales or US final U of Mich
to offer A category risk opportunity (more than 50 pip price reaction)
ps: my record is not perfect

Mtl JP 13:36 GMT December 23, 2016
Breaking News

and so cad getting crushed
vs usd and euro

GVI Trading john bland 13:30 GMT December 23, 2016
Breaking News

Canada: GDP October 2016





ALERT
m/m -0.30 vs. +0.10% exp. vs. +0.30% (r. +0.40%) prev.



TTN: Live News Special Offer

Singapore SGFxTrader 13:24 GMT December 23, 2016
Trade Off The Cretins Corner

Thanks JP, your comments are much appreciated as always

Mtl JP 13:23 GMT December 23, 2016
Forex Trading Ideas For Friday 23 December 2016

not on GV's econ calendar at bottom of hour:
Canadian GDP MoM and YoY numbers
-
would be looking to BoD if seen

Mtl JP 13:14 GMT December 23, 2016
Trade Off The Cretins Corner



for today? no real reason to get excited about usdyen either way
maybe buy some dips if seen

GVI Trading john bland 13:03 GMT December 23, 2016
Breaking News

Hijacked Plane in Malta on the ground. Reportedly passengers are being let off, but crew must remain.

-- press reports

GVI Trading john bland 13:00 GMT December 23, 2016
Forex Trading Ideas For Friday 23 December 2016

DAX -32
DJ -21
SP -2

10-yr 2.541% -1.4 bp

Singapore SGFxTrader 12:58 GMT December 23, 2016
Trade Off The Cretins Corner

JP, thanks for the note.

Any view on USDJPY?

Mtl JP 12:36 GMT December 23, 2016
Trade Off The Cretins Corner

never lose sight of CBs primary tools:
- fiat money
- market'a credibility in their bull$hit

Singapore SGFxTrader 12:01 GMT December 23, 2016
Trade Off The Cretins Corner

JP, what do they mean by having a better communication with the market?

Means they will drop more hints to the market or try to influence market movement with their press release or speech just like what Draghi and Yellen like to do?

GVI Trading 11:52 GMT December 23, 2016
Banks lift global stocks, dollar holds near 14-year peak -- Reuters.com
Reply   
"European stocks edged higher on Friday, helped by banks after two regional bellwethers settled investigations into U.S. mortgage securities, while oil and the dollar were on the back foot in light trading ahead of the Christmas break.

In another boost to European financials, a bailout for Italy's oldest bank Monte dei Paschi was approved as the country's government looks to end a protracted banking crisis that has gummed up the economy. Futures on Wall Street ESc1 pointed to a flat open..."

Banks lift global stocks, dollar holds near 14-year peak -- Reuters.com

italy helly 11:31 GMT December 23, 2016
Dollar hovers below 14-year high, euro firms

Sell EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:

X

Mtl JP 11:23 GMT December 23, 2016
Trade Off The Cretins Corner

Kuroda highlights a more communicative BOJ
Central bank dials back surprise tactics

The improved dialogue with the market fits with the BOJ's shift away from a more surprise-based approach.

Singapore SGFxTrader 11:21 GMT December 23, 2016
GBPJPY and USDJPY

20 Dec high: 118.244
21 Dec high: 118.070
22 Dec high: 117.878
23 Dec high: Currently 117.632

About 20 pips lower every day based on the day peak

Sell on Spike recommended for UJ

GVI Trading john bland 11:01 GMT December 23, 2016
Forex Trading Ideas For Friday 23 December 2016

Register for the Amazing Trader

1.


Amazing Trader GBPUSD charts updated on your systems

Singapore SGFxTrader 10:57 GMT December 23, 2016
GBPJPY and USDJPY
Reply   
On the daily chart, GBPJPY has formed the top and has made a turn lower on the right side of the curve. Lower low on the daily chart over the past few days.


On the daily chart, USDJPY has formed lower high this week.


Both USDJPY and GBPJPY has been correlated in some way and traded a same chart pattern on the daily chart since 3rd November.

Is USDJPY formed the top and following GBPJPY lower?


LONDON SFH 10:46 GMT December 23, 2016
Breaking News

Malta PM: potentially hijacked Libya flight diverted to Malta (plane is now on the ground)

GVI Trading john bland 10:46 GMT December 23, 2016
Forex Trading Ideas For Friday 23 December 2016

Register for the Amazing Trader

1.


Amazing Trader EURUSD charts updated on your systems

GVI Trading john bland 09:56 GMT December 23, 2016
Breaking News

Berlin attack suspect shot and killed by police in Milan.

-- wire services

GVI Forex Blog 09:46 GMT December 23, 2016
How to take the perfect trade entry in the forex market
Reply   

Those who are trading the financial industry over a long period of time knows exactly how important the entry point of a trade is to the trader. Most of the novice traders get overwhelmed with joy after they execute one or two profitable trade in the market

How to take the perfect trade entry in the forex market

GVI Forex Blog 09:38 GMT December 23, 2016
BREAKING NEWS: U.K. GDP Mixed Revisions
Reply   

U.K. 3Q16 GDP mixed revisions Q/Q up an y/y down.

U.K. GDP chart

BREAKING NEWS: U.K. GDP Mixed Revisions

GVI Trading john bland 09:31 GMT December 23, 2016
Breaking News

GDP revised higher Q/Q, down Y/Y..

GVI Trading john bland 09:30 GMT December 23, 2016
Breaking News

UK 3Q16 GDP




-- NEWS ALERT --

Q/Q +0.60% vs. +0.50% exp. vs. +0.50% prev.
Y/Y: +2.20% vs. +2.30% exp. vs. +2.30% prev.



TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Trading Jay Meisler 09:27 GMT December 23, 2016
How to Beat Your Broker at Its Own Game

While markets are winding down for the holiday period, this is the time to look ahead and see what you can do to improve your trading. In this regard, we have created a suite of tools that are listed in the link below that are available to you.

There is no obligation for taking a look and for doing so, it is our pleasure to share our exclusive report, How to Beat Your Forex Broker at Its Own Game. Some say the deck is stacked against you but you will be surprised by the reason for it and how you can neutralize it.

Take a Look at Our Suite of Tools and How to Beat Your Forex Broker at Its Own Game

GVI Forex Blog 09:22 GMT December 23, 2016
Forex Trading Ideas For Friday 23 December 2016
Reply   


Forex Trading Ideas for 23 Dec 2016

Forex Trading Outlook

  • Far East equity markets closed cautiously lower before the Christmas and global end of year holiday period. Trading should be cautious today into the Christmas break. The EURUSD is steady near the 1.0450 neutral level.

  • Today sees a few data releases from the U.S. which should mot be market-moving. Expect activity to wind down by noontime in N.Y. Globally, equity and fixed income markets are heading into the Christmas break mixed. This is must be a disappointment to those expecting seasonal strength in equities and more Trump euphoria.

  • Expect limited trader participation next week and until after the turn of the year. Recall, limited volumes no longer always imply stable prices in an era of electronic trading.


WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:

23-Dec Fri
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- University of Michigan Survey

26-Dec Mon
Many centers- Christmas Day Observed
23:30 JP CPI
27-Dec Tue
Several centers- Boxing Day Observed
15:00 US- Conference Board Survey
28-Dec Wed
15:00 US- Pending Homes Sales
29-Dec Thu
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
16:00 US- EIA Crude
30-Dec Fri
14:45 US- Chicago PMI


John M. Bland, MBA
co-founder Global-View.com


CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Risk Profile

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

Forex Trading Ideas For Friday 23 December 2016

GVI Forex Blog 09:08 GMT December 23, 2016
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Risk Profile
Reply   

Early in Europe, equity markets are mixed to lower following a weaker Far East close. U.S. Futures are down. Prices in Fixed income markets are lower. The EUR is mostly up on its crosses while the USD is mixed.

Table of Key Current Market Rates

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Risk Profile

Haifa ac 08:19 GMT December 23, 2016
Trade Off The Cretins Corner

"I find employing the Costanza method to trading an interesting exercise."

Easier said than done. When the Japanese invited George Soros to explain to them why they make so much money in production while losing on every investment they did (Hawaii, NY, Van Gogh....) he said:
In Production you have to do the things right. In Investment you have to do the Right Thing!"

If you think about this for a moment you realize that he told them to do the OPPOSITE of what they were doing. The trouble is that the OPPOSITE is NOT SO CLEAR!
He told them that they did not know how to SELECT the next trade.
To know the OPPOSITE-- you have to know what STRAIGHT IS-- and by being a loser you already belong to the class of those who DO NOT know the RIGHT thing.
Not so simple

Singapore 05:56 GMT December 23, 2016
AUDUSD & GBPCAD Forex Tips Update
Reply   
In Forex Market, AUDUSD and GBPCAD is going down.

Our Recommendation:
1. SELL AUDUSD 0.7260 TARGETS 0.7230 0.7200 STOPLOSS 0.7290
2. SELL GBPCAD 1.6620 TARGETS 1.6590 1.6565 STOPLOSS 1.6655

Stay updated with Forex Tips to earn more profit on trading.

Rachel

Mtl JP 04:25 GMT December 23, 2016
AceTrader Dec 23: Intra-Day News and Views USD/JPY

ahhh... Japanese market is closed for Emperor's Birthday
happy b-day Akihito; thks 2 u market is dead

Mtl JP 03:35 GMT December 23, 2016
Breaking News

At a cabinet meeting in the early hours of Friday, the government of Prime Minister Paolo Gentiloni approved the creation of a €20 billion ($20.9 billion) fund to help troubled banks. Shortly afterward, Monte dei Paschi BMPS, -7.48% said it will apply to tap this fund for fresh equity to shore up its balance sheet.

Mtl JP 03:22 GMT December 23, 2016
Trade Off The Cretins Corner

CB 02:16 I still have those two SnP gaps I mentioned a few times sitting n gapping patiently

Mtl JP 03:19 GMT December 23, 2016
Trade Off The Cretins Corner

CB 02:08 I note that that method - counter major trend - often works on the eurdlr after about 5am and during about 7-11am in NYT session

Hong Kong 02:32 GMT December 23, 2016
AceTrader Dec 23: Intra-Day News and Views USD/JPY
Reply   
23 Dec 2016 02:10GMT

USD/JPY - ..... Dlr went nowhere in lack lustre Thursday's session and is doing nothing in subdued Asian morning today as Japanese market is closed for Emperor's Birthday, so traders can go for an early X'mas celebratory lunch.

Despite yesterday's brief jump to 117.88 after upbeat U.S. GDP revision, intra-day rally in eur/usd swiftly knocked dlr lower to session lows of 117.27 but subsequent broad-based rebound in the usd lifted the pair to 117.69/70 before moving narrowly in thin New York afternoon trading.

Range trading is expected to continue in European morning, however, pay attention to release of U.S. data later in the day which may cause some whippy move in a holiday-thinned New York market, U.S. will release University of Michigan consumer confidence n then new home sales.

Offers are tipped at 11765/70 n more at 117.85/95 with stops above 118.10, however, more sell interest is reported at 118.30/40. Some bids are noted at 117.30-20 n more below with stops below 117.00

dc CB 02:16 GMT December 23, 2016
Trade Off The Cretins Corner

while Mark-To- Market values of key asset holdings in pension portfolios have shifted violently, pensions have specific quotas to adhere to, which in this case means selling winners and buying losers to return to their mandated allocation percentages.

As a result, according to Lin's analysis, the “estimated rotation out of domestic U.S. equities would be one of the largest on record” with relatively large outperformance versus other asset classes both on a monthly and quarterly basis. Additionally, Lin estimates selling of $864 million in developed market international stocks.

While the exodus from US and International stocks would be substantial, the offset to this would be an aggressively buying of more than $6.3 billion in emerging market equities. Another offset would be the purchase of that "other" formerly beloved asset class: bonds, where pensions could end up buying approximately $22 billion.

There is more bad news: the Credit Suisse analysts believes the selling in U.S. equities could increase to nearly $58 billion (and bond buying to over $35 billion) should equity-bond relative performance continue to widen before year-end.

Assuming his analysis is correct, the question is how will this exaggerated selling take place in the five remaining trading days of 2016 during what is already extremely thin and illiquid tape, where most traders are now gone on holiday, and in which HFTs are just salivating at the thought of frontrunning major block orders: remember, HFT works both on the way up and, in some very rare occasions, on the way down

Pension Funds To Sell "Near Record" Amount Of Stocks In The Next Few Days

dc CB 02:08 GMT December 23, 2016
Trade Off The Cretins Corner

For those of you not familiar with George Costanza, his character on the sitcom Seinfeld could do no right when it came to employment, dating, and life in general. In one episode, George realizes over lunch at the diner with Jerry that if every instinct he has is wrong; then doing the opposite must be right. George then resolves to start doing the complete opposite of what he would do normally. He orders the opposite of his normal lunch, and he introduces himself to a beautiful woman that he normally would never have the nerve to talk to and says, "My name is George. I'm unemployed, and I live with my parents." To his surprise, she is impressed with his honesty and agrees to date him!

I find employing the Costanza method to trading an interesting exercise. Ask yourself; what are the trades that make complete sense and all your instincts say are right, and then do the opposite. Basically what you end up constructing is an out of consensus portfolio and we all know how consensus trades work out in this market.

Employing the Costanza method can identify interesting, non-consensus trade ideas that could kick in alpha.

Last year’s list of the top 10 Costanza trades produced 7 winners:

The "Costanza Trades" Of 2017

 




Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

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Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

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