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Forex Forum Archive for 12/29/2016

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GVI Forex Jay Meisler 23:34 GMT December 29, 2016
Pre-Market Forex Trading Ideas For Friday 30 December 2016

1.05 stops, John has been dead on calling the risk

GVI Trading john bland 21:17 GMT December 29, 2016
Pre-Market Forex Trading Ideas For Friday 30 December 2016

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GVI Trading Statistical Market BIAS Indicators--
The Fed Funds Market Sentiment Barometer reflects current sentiment about a future change in Fed policy. Odds for rate hikes at the June 17, 2017 meeting are +100% for +25bp.

EURUSD MACRO statistical Bias: down

GVI Forex Blog 20:47 GMT December 29, 2016
Pre-Market Forex Trading Ideas For Friday 30 December 2016
Reply   


Pre-Market Forex Trading Ideas for 30 Dec 2016

Forex Trading Outlook

  • Trading turned cautious Thursday with the end of year at hand on Friday. This has been a difficult end of year period after the unexpected decline in equity prices on Wednesday. Many short-term equity traders mistakenly had gotten set up for "seasonal end of year equity demand". Conventional wisdom can be dangerous at times.

  • One key feature of trading Thursday was the yield in the 10-yr note breaking below the 2.50% barrier to 2.466%, -4.6bp. This development raises questions about investor sentiment heading into the New Year.

  • Most years, early-bird traders like to establish positions in the period between Christmas and New Years for the start pf the new year. This has been a difficult period for those trying to preposition for 2017.


WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:

30-Dec Fri
14:45 US- Chicago PMI

2-Jan Mon
Global- Holiday
Various - PMIs
3-Jan Tue
Various - PMIs
08:55 DE- Unemployment
4 Jan Wed
Various Service PMIs
10:00 US- flash HICP
13:15 US- ADP Payrolls
19:00 US- Fed Minutes
5-Jan Thu
Various Service PMIs
13:30 US- Jobless Claims
16:00 EIA Crude
6-Jan Fri
07:00 DE Retail Sales
13:30 US/CA- Employment/Trade


John M. Bland, MBA
co-founder Global-View.com


CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mild Risk-Off Profile

Pre-Market Forex Trading Ideas For Friday 30 December 2016

GVI Forex Blog 20:32 GMT December 29, 2016
Chart Points: Free Forex Database For 29 December 2016
Reply   

forex rate database image

Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for more than a dozen currency pairs for over seventeen years of data in an Excel spreadsheet format

Chart Points: Free Forex Database For 29 December 2016

GVI Forex Blog 20:08 GMT December 29, 2016
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mild Risk-Off
Reply   

Late in N.Y., U.S. equity markets are ending modestly lower. The best explanation is likely end of year position squaring. One highlight Thursday was the 10-yr yield penetrating the 2.50%. In forex trade, the EUR is mostly up on its crosses while the USD is down.

Table of Key Current Market Rates

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mild Risk-Off

dc CB 18:32 GMT December 29, 2016
Thursday Trading Ideas

7Y high yield 2.284% vs the trading WI 2.304%
2bps !!!

What's gonna happen when the cal turns over to 2017 and all those sitting on YUGE Stock gains can sell and not have to pay taxes until 2018 and with odds favoring a better rate thanks to a potential Trump tax cut.

Will this Jan look like last Jan --- selling selliing selling?

GVI Trading john bland 18:10 GMT December 29, 2016
Thursday Trading Ideas

7-yr 2.284$
bid to cover 2.54 vs 2.68
good

GVI Trading john bland 17:13 GMT December 29, 2016
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off At European Close
Reply   

Late in Europe, equity prices are closing mostly lower. U.S. markets are currently modestly weaker. Across the board, fixed income prices are higher Lower yields. In forex trading, the EUR is broadly higher on its crosses. The USD is down.

Table of Key Current Market Rates


GVI Trading john bland 16:16 GMT December 29, 2016
Thursday Trading Ideas

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Amazing Trader EURUSD charts updated on your systems


So far the day has been playing out as we predicted earlier...

dc CB 16:15 GMT December 29, 2016
Thursday Trading Ideas

7Y auction results at 1:00PM
will it be as good at the 5Y was yest?

dc CB 16:12 GMT December 29, 2016
Thursday Trading Ideas

the mechanical pension asset-rebalancing into bonds from stocks (on acct of massive relative performance gap MTD / QTD), most-clearly evidenced by the programmatic ~ half-hour long selling-waves seen in SPX at 9:35am, 11:55am and 3:35pm. Expect this flow to continue through the new year, as market liquidity simply is not deep enough to ‘take it.’

What Time To Expect Today's Pension Fund Sell Orders

GVI Trading john bland 16:01 GMT December 29, 2016
Breaking News

US EIA Weekly Inventories

U.S. Data Charts






NEWS ALERT
Crude Oil:+0.600 vs. -1.500 exp vs. -3.256 prev.
Distillates: -1.900 vs. +1.800 exp vs. -2.426 prev.
Gasoline: -1.600 vs. -1.500 exp vs. -1.309 prev.



Weekly Petroleum Status Report



TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Trading john bland 15:48 GMT December 29, 2016
Breaking News

EIA Crude due @16:00 GMT

Livingston nh 15:37 GMT December 29, 2016
Thursday Trading Ideas

China basket LINK

Livingston nh 15:35 GMT December 29, 2016
Thursday Trading Ideas

Any thots on China replacing some USD w/ additions to currency basket (esp KRW and TRY) -- is it bigger deal than the portfolio guys jumping into FI at the edge of the abyss?

GVI Trading john bland 15:31 GMT December 29, 2016
Breaking News

US EIA Weekly Natural Gas Inventories (bcf)

U.S. Data Charts




ALERT

-237 vs. -218 exp vs. -209 prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer

dc CB 15:09 GMT December 29, 2016
Thursday Trading Ideas

Par

Dow 20K

GVI Forex Blog 15:02 GMT December 29, 2016
GVI Data Calendar for 30 December 2016
Reply   
Forex Data Calendar For TradersFriday features the Chicago PMI and the Commitment of Traders Report.

December 29, 2016 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS Friday, December 30, 2016.

  • Far East: No Major Data
  • Europe: No Major Data
  • North America: US- Chicago PMI, Rig Count, COT Report

WEEKLY Forex Economic Calendar:

30-Dec Fri
14:45 US- Chicago PMI

2-Jan Mon
Global- Holiday
Various - PMIs
3-Jan Tue
Various - PMIs
08:55 DE- Unemployment
4 Jan Wed
Various Service PMI
10:00 US- flash HICP
13:15 US- ADP Payrolls
19:00 US- Fed Minutes
5-Jan Thu
Various Service PMIs
13:30 US- Jobless Claims
16:00 EIA Crude
6-Jan Fri
07:00 DE Retail Sales
13:30 US/CA- Employment/Trade

GVI Data Calendar for 30 December 2016

PAR 14:43 GMT December 29, 2016
Thursday Trading Ideas

Dow 20000. Here we come.

GVI Trading john bland 14:27 GMT December 29, 2016
Thursday Trading Ideas

10-yr 2.500% in play, last 2.495%, -1.7bp. FI is being driven by end of year equity flows.

GVI Forex Blog 13:39 GMT December 29, 2016
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims In Line
Reply   

U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims as expected.

U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims Chart

BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims In Line

GVI Trading john bland 13:31 GMT December 29, 2016
Breaking News

U.S. (USD bn) Advance Goods Balance October 2016

U.S. Data Charts




ALERT
-65.3 vs. -65.1 exp. vs. -61.9 prev.

U.S. Balance on Goods and Services


TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Trading john bland 13:30 GMT December 29, 2016
Breaking News

U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims

U.S. Data Charts






NEWS ALERT

Initial Claims (000)
265K vs. 264K exp. vs. 275K (r) prev.

TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Trading john bland 12:32 GMT December 29, 2016
Thursday Trading Ideas

DAX -28
DJ -4
SP +1

10-yr 2.486% -2.6 bp

Keeping a close eye on shares today. Also the psychological 2.50% line in the 10-yr note.

GVI Forex Blog 11:49 GMT December 29, 2016
Amazing tips for news trading in the forex market
Reply   

There are many forms of trading in the financial industry. If you become a professional forex trader then you will be using the technical analysis to execute your trade in the forex market to become profitable. And during the event of the major news releases, you will be trading the news

Amazing tips for news trading in the forex market

GVI Trading john bland 11:46 GMT December 29, 2016
Thursday Trading Ideas

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Amazing Trader GBPUSD charts updated on your systems

GVI Trading 11:34 GMT December 29, 2016
Dollar slips to two-week low vs. yen as Treasury yields fall -- Reuters.com
Reply   
"The dollar slipped to a two-week low against the yen on Thursday, mirroring a fall in U.S. bond yields as weaker-than-expected economic data weighed on the greenback and waning risk appetite boosted Japan's safe-haven currency.

Japan's Nikkei stock index .N225 - which tends to move in the opposite direction to the yen - shed 1.3 percent as Toshiba Corp dived 16 percent after news of potential massive writedowns led to a downgrade of its credit ratings. The dollar dipped 0.8 percent to 116.30 yen..."

Dollar slips to two-week low vs. yen as Treasury yields fall -- Reuters.com

GVI Trading john bland 10:15 GMT December 29, 2016
Thursday Trading Ideas
Reply   

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Amazing Trader EURUSD charts updated on your systems

GVI Forex Blog 09:42 GMT December 29, 2016
Forex Trading Ideas For Thursday 29 December 2016
Reply   


Forex Trading Ideas for 29 Dec 2016

Forex Trading Outlook

  • The unexpected decline in equity prices Wednesday in the U.S. is likely be end of year related and has carried over into Thursday trading.

  • Markets have gone into a risk-off posture with the yield on the U.S. 10-yr note falling to below 2.50%, last 2.481%, -3.1bp. Many equity traders mistakenly had gotten set up for "seasonal end of year equity demand". At times, conventional wisdom can be dangerous.

  • Today sees weekly Jobless Claims and EIA Crude Oil inventories. Expect dealers to focus on equity prices again into year end. Expect activity to start to wind down again for the New Years break.

  • Many early-bird traders like to establish positions in the period between Christmas and New Years for the start pf the new year. Many will be looking to buy USD into the new year will be disappointed.


WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:

29-Dec Thu
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
16:00 US- EIA Crude
30-Dec Fri
14:45 US- Chicago PMI


John M. Bland, MBA
co-founder Global-View.com


CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mild Risk-Off Profile

Forex Trading Ideas For Thursday 29 December 2016

GVI Forex Blog 09:23 GMT December 29, 2016
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mild Risk-Off Early on 29 December 2016
Reply   

Equities in the Far East are closing mixed, while European bourses are mostly weaker early in their session. Bond yields are falling in this risk-off environment. The EUR is mixed on its crosses while the USD is down.

Table of Key Current Market Rates

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mild Risk-Off Early on 29 December 2016

Hong Kong 07:40 GMT December 29, 2016
AceTrader Dec 29: Intra-Day News and Views EUR/USD
Reply   
29 Dec 2016 06:20GMT

EUR/USD - ..... Just as if you think the single would re-vist last Tuesday's 13-year low at 1.0352 after yesterday's sharp selloff just ahead of European open at 1.0480 to as low as 1.0372 near New York midday, intra-day decline in dlr/yen or rather active gain in the yen led to broad-based usd's weakness in Asia, sending the single currency above 1.0427/32 res area to as high as 1.0465, suggesting said 1.0352 bottom would be 2016 trough in the history book.

Current firmness ahead of European open suggests euro still has legs to move higher towards 1.0499 (last week's reaction high) and stops above 1.0500 are now in focus.
Bids are noted at 1.0440-30 and more below with stops below 1.0370.
Some offers are touted at 1.0480/90. Therefore, buying euro is favoured but beware of possible sharp retreat if euro is unable to penetrate 1.0499/00.

haifa ac 07:34 GMT December 29, 2016
USD/JPY IS STILL FALLING IN FOREX MARKET

It is a classical Equity/Currency game now. Nikkei needs a correction to the 18500 area and that will correspond to a dip in the dollar/yen to the 114.80 area (doubtful it will go that deep). The trend in USD/JPY is bullish.

Singapore 05:45 GMT December 29, 2016
USD/JPY IS STILL FALLING IN FOREX MARKET
Reply   
The bears remain relentless in the Asian hours, further fuelling the selling pressure behind USD/JPY, knocking-off the rate to fresh eight-day lows near 20-DMA placed at 116.65.

The dollar-yen pair extends its bearish momentum into a second straight session this Thursday, as the investors closely track the broad USD-price action, which witnessed a massive sell-off in response to renewed weakness in the US treasury yields.

The major finds immediate resistance at 117.16 (5-DMA). A break above the last, the major could test 117.32 (10-DMA) and 117.70 (daily R1) beyond the last. While to the downside, the immediate support is seen at 116.57 (daily S2) next at 116 (round figure) and below that at 115.50 (psychological levels).

Currently the exchange rate of USD/JPY is 116.74.

Our Recommendation:
As the pair USD/JPY is going down in the forex market so it is recommended to sell.

Stay updated with live Forex Picks with Forex Market Updates.

Rachel

jkt abel 04:18 GMT December 29, 2016
euro
Reply   
maybe no parity at all ;) nice run since bottom last night

Hong Kong 04:13 GMT December 29, 2016
AceTrader Dec 29: Intra-Day News and Views USD/JPY
Reply   
29 Dec 2016 03:39GMT

USD/JPY - ...... Dlr is nursing o/n losses in heavy Tokyo morning session as broad-based yen buying which started in New York midday sent the pair sharply lower from 117.72 to 117.06 as weakness in U.S. stocks triggered buying of yen on risk aversion, price fell further to 116.85 in Australia and yen buying continued when Nikkie fell in early trading (currently at 19190 down 260 points) and hit intra-day low of 116.68.

The lack of a decent bounce suggests dlr would remain under pressure in Europe as investors are taking risk off the table ahead of year end and yesterday's decline in U.S. Treasury yields add further to dlr's woe, suggesting selling the greenback on recovery is still recommended.

Offers have been lowered 117.00/10 and more above with some stops above 117.40.
Bids are noted at 116.70-60 with fairly large stops touted below 116.50.

U.S. will later release weekly jobless claims, trade balance n whole inventories, all due out at 13:30GMT.

 




Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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