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Forex Forum Archive for 02/07/2016
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'Mtl' 'JP' 23:12 GMT February 7, 2016
BERLIN (Reuters) - The euro zone needs to press ahead with structural reforms and closer integration, including an euro zone finance ministry, to deliver sustainable growth, the heads of the French and German central banks wrote in a German newspaper on Monday.
PAR 19:20 GMT February 7, 2016
Merkel's popularity almost as low as that of Hollande.
GVI john 18:29 GMT February 7, 2016
Commitment Of Traders Report
To the extent that futures positions represent market positions as a whole, note that in the week ending last Tuesday EURUSD positions remained short, but they were further squared up. Odds are that pattern continued until the confusing employment report on Friday.
GVI Forex Blog 17:32 GMT February 7, 2016
Has the Dollar Bottomed?
The question for the week ahead is whether the washout of long dollar positions has run its course and wheter the currency has bottomed. In this week's video I make the case that all we have seen is a swing within ranges, at least for the EURUSD and USDJPY that have been in place for a year or longer.
Has the Dollar Bottomed?
Amsterdam 17:02 GMT February 7, 2016
Forex Analytics and Forecasts from R.Butko,
Forex Forecast for 8-12 February 2016
First, a review of last week’s forecast:
- initially everything was going according to plan for EUR/USD – it rebounded to resistance at 1.0990 but then, instead of reversing and going down, it soared up to the values of last September-October. The reason for that was simply comments by US Federal Reserve official William Dudley who expressed doubts about the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in 2016;
- Mr. Dudley’s remarks helped the 50% of the experts who, backed by graphical analysis on D1, reckoned that GBP/USD would continue to move up to 1.4630. The pair reached this level on Wednesday and, as expected, went down, finishing the week around 1.4500;
- after the Bank of Japan introduced a negative interest rate policy, most experts were at a loss. Only one analyst believed that USD/JPY would return to the main support of January – 116.50, which happened, again thanks W. Dudley’s comments;
- graphical analysis on D1 insisted that USD/CHF should go down to support at 0.9920, and it did, mirroring EUR/USD’s movement.
Forecast for Upcoming Week
Summing up the views of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:
- in the shorter term, the indicators and graphical analysis on H1 point to EUR/USD entering a sideways trend in a 1.1250-1.1220 range. As the previous week showed, all major currency pairs’ movements will certainly depend a lot on Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen’s speech this Wednesday. After the speech, EUR/USD may rise to 1.1350. However, over 70% of the experts and graphical analysis on D1 believe that the market has almost recovered after the bad news from the Federal Reserve, and the pair should return to 1.0400-1.0600 in the next couple of weeks;
- the experts' opinions split almost 50/50 in regards to GBP/USD. According to the indicators and graphical analysis on H4, the pair will be moving in a horizontal 1.4400-1.4545 channel in the near future. In the longer term, 30% of the analysts and graphical analysis on D1 predict a rise to resistance at 1.4900. However, 60% of the experts don’t agree with this, insisting that the pair should fall and get to 1.4220 by the end of February;
- after USD/JPY nosedived last week, it’s clear that all indicators point downward. Considering the ‘war’ of interest rates between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan, the experts seem unable to reach a consensus – 35% are for a fall, another 35% are for a rise, and the rest 30% are for a sideways trend in a 116.40-118.25 range;
- the analysts are undecided about USD/CHF. According to graphical analysis on H4 and D1, the pair will first go up to 0.9980, then fall to support at 0.9800, after which it is expected to rise to resistance at 1.0124 and return to around 1.025-1.032.
Roman Butko, NordFX
'dc' 'CB' 16:58 GMT February 7, 2016
Fun with Covers
The professors call this covenant banking. And it looks a lot like the kind of personal liability that was a fact of life among the top Wall Street firms when they were private partnerships.
With their own money at risk, partners of Salomon Brothers, Lehman Brothers and Goldman Sachs were much more careful about their business dealings. When these firms became public companies funded more by outsiders’ money, that self-discipline diminished.
“In the old days, because a partnership paid the fine, it would all come out of the partners’ pockets,”
Fining Bankers, Not Shareholders, for Banks’ Misconduct
PAR 15:27 GMT February 7, 2016
Brexit will make life complicated for all those British retirees enjoying the easy life and the nice european health service in the South of Europe . They will instead have to rely on the NHS .
A Brexit should involve some reciprocity . If the UK gets into financial trouble it should not rely on Europe to pay its bills .
Imho UK has much more to loose than Europe . A Europe without UK could be more coherent .
HK Kwun 14:27 GMT February 7, 2016
Entry: 1152 Target: Stop: 1142
tomorrow will be another great day for gold bulls, due to North Korea and Taiwan
'Sydney' 'ACC' 05:38 GMT February 7, 2016
China's Foreign-Exchange Reserves Decline to $3.23 Trillion
China’s foreign-exchange reserves shrank to the smallest since 2012, indicating that the central bank sold dollars as the yuan’s retreat to a five-year low exacerbated depreciation pressure.
The world’s largest currency hoard declined by $99.5 billion in January to $3.23 trillion, according to a People’s Bank of China statement released on Sunday. The drop was less than a Bloomberg survey’s median estimate of a $120 billion loss.
'Mtl' 'JP' 04:10 GMT February 7, 2016
My Monday Trades
also due: FX reserves amount on the 8th
Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts
GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
Mon 27 May 2019
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan
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