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Forex Forum Archive for 02/10/2016

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'Livingston' 'nh' 23:56 GMT February 10, 2016
YELLEN

There are two things that Fed models have wrong - productivity and inflation expectations

And when measuring comparative bond yields or FX these two are significant (not so much for equities)

'Livingston' 'nh' 23:41 GMT February 10, 2016
USD/JPY

JN - I am buying USD/JPY (shorting yen) - my target is the breakout lvl of 123.80 // the MAs are all declining so any purchases I make risk being sold at lower levels

I will assess next week when China returns

'dc' 'CB' 22:58 GMT February 10, 2016
Gold
Reply   
CNBC is now hot on buying Gold

Cramer SEZ buy Gold

CNBC compilation

'dc' 'CB' 22:38 GMT February 10, 2016
YELLEN

'dc' 'CB' 20:33 GMT February 10, 2016
But wait but wait.....still waiting as the Obvious follow-up question was never put to Trader Yellen...Where in the Congresssional Mandate does it say that the Fed is a Profit Making Trading Operation..

ZH tweet

\'GVI \'john 22:21 GMT February 10, 2016
GVI Data Calendar for 10 February 2016


February 10, 2016 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Thursday, February 10, 2016. Trading News Calendar

  • Far East: CN/JP- Holiday
  • Europe: CH- CPI
  • North America: US- Weekly Jobless, Yellen Testimony, Natural Gas
WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:

11-Feb Thursday
CN- Holiday
JA- Holiday
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
15:00 US- Yellen Testifies
12-Feb Friday
CN- Holiday
13:30 US- Retail Sales
15:00 US- University of Michigan (prelim)

GVI Data Calendar for 11 February 2016

GVI Forex Blog 21:42 GMT February 10, 2016
Global-View Trading Technologies
Reply   

Global-View Trading Technologies

'dc' 'CB' 21:10 GMT February 10, 2016
Daily TA trade

AMAZON AUTHORIZED BUYBACK OF UP TO $5B OF STOCK

'Belgrade' 'TD' 21:08 GMT February 10, 2016
Daily TA trade

1/3 out from today short /NQ (nas100) with ~40p+ ... stop at BE ... reducing risk

'Belgrade' 'TD' 21:03 GMT February 10, 2016
YELLEN

another day in red ... it's another message, same as yesterday, with hope that someone will understand it - we'll see

london red 21:02 GMT February 10, 2016
YELLEN

CB correction day tomorrow. more interesting each year is not what is said first day, but what is added on the second.

yen. 50% fib pierced. next is 11030/35 interim 11180. but watch the rollover as a 11330 save means all is not lost. they can make a tail tomorrow however low they go intraday, so you have to be careful.

PAR 21:02 GMT February 10, 2016
YELLEN

The real jobless rate is 42 percent? Donald Trump has a point, sort of

'dc' 'CB' 20:58 GMT February 10, 2016
YELLEN

I wonder what the market will look like tom afternoon after the Senate is finished with The Queen.

Senate Banking Comtee Members

Paris ib 20:51 GMT February 10, 2016
USD/JPY: the canary in the coal mine

CB - yeah I know about the seasonals. This is not seasonal. This is the market reassessing the dumb idea that the FED was gonna hike while everyone else in the world eased and this was going turn the USD into an outperformer. That is clearly not going to happen. First because the state of the U.S. economy does not warrant it.

PAR 20:51 GMT February 10, 2016
YELLEN

DC agree 100 % .

With ZIRP or NIRP nobody dares to spend and everybody is just sitting on their savings .

With $ 100.000 in savings and rates at 5% grandparents would spent every year $ 5.000 and be happy .

With rates at O they spend nothing and are UNHAPPY .

Paris ib 20:49 GMT February 10, 2016
YELLEN

Look I hate to tell you but this whole idea that a huge segment of the population could just stop working and live off 'investment income' is just INSANE at the outset. That idea was never going to work. How could it? Who provides the income for these people to do NOTHING? It's gotta come from somewhere. Encouraging people even to think that way and plan that way is just nuts. If zero interest stops this insanity then it will have at least served some purpose. Pension plans, superannuation, government pension schemes are all insane and its time everyone worked that one out.

'USA' 'ZEUS' 20:48 GMT February 10, 2016
EUR/USD

I see EUR/USD squeak higher on the Carly Fiorina news.

All in monkey short EUR/USD at 1.1293

'dc' 'CB' 20:48 GMT February 10, 2016
USD/JPY: the canary in the coal mine

The Yen always rises in Fed going into March - Repat, End of Year book closing at the end of March... there are exceptions due to other forces in the market, but this is an anual event.

GVI Forex Blog 20:46 GMT February 10, 2016
CHART POINTS: Free Forex Database
Reply   



Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format

CHART POINTS: Free Forex Database

'dc' 'CB' 20:45 GMT February 10, 2016
YELLEN

ZIRP
savers are scared. Lower interest rates have wrecked their retirement plans. Say you were doing some financial planning 10 years ago and plugged in 3% from your savings account. Now its 0%. You still have to plan for your retirement. Plug in 0%. What happens to your planning now? 0% compounded for X years is 0%. The math is simple. So in order to have your target savings at retirement, you need to save more, not spend more. But for some reason, the economists that run central banks around the world can’t see this. They are all stuck in their offices talking to one another and self-reinforcing this myth that they can drive spending up by reducing the rate of return on investments. Want to see consumer spending go up? Don’t wreck their savings plans so that they are too scared to spend. But that’s too simple. Instead, central banks use a chain of causation that doesn’t exist to try to create change 3 or 4 steps down the line.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
NIRP
The policy of negative interest rates is thus consistent with the agenda to drive small banks out of business and consolidate banking sectors in industrialised countries, increasing concentration and control in the banking sector.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
NO MORE CASH
Central bankers, after all, have had an explicit interest in introducing e-money from the moment the global financial crisis began…
The introduction of a cashless society empowers central banks greatly. A cashless society, after all, not only makes things like negative interest rates possible, it transfers absolute control of the money supply to the central bank, mostly by turning it into a universal banker that competes directly with private banks for public deposits. All digital deposits become base money

Negative Interest Rates Aimed at Driving Small Banks Out of Business and Eliminating Cash

PAR 20:45 GMT February 10, 2016
USD/JPY: the canary in the coal mine

Repatriation for fiscal year end and to pay margin calls . Japanese always do the unexpected . Remember Pearl Harbor .

'Paris' 'ib' 20:41 GMT February 10, 2016
USD/JPY: the canary in the coal mine

Test of 113 coming up. Panic when?

Everyone hear still buying into the USD bullish story?

PAR 20:38 GMT February 10, 2016
YELLEN

She scared the market with her talk about that she is authorized to introduce negative interest rates and with her warnings on US government debt .

Paris ib 20:36 GMT February 10, 2016
USD sell off PART II

Think so red.

london red 20:34 GMT February 10, 2016
USD sell off PART II

tested. if we are not done here it will be bloody tomorrow.

'dc' 'CB' 20:33 GMT February 10, 2016
YELLEN

nh
Don't know if you caught the exchange when Yellen was being questioned about why the FED is paying 0.50% interest on Excess reserves that banks have held with the FED. (come to think of it that's 5 times the interest that my bank pays me on my checking/savings acct).

the questioner wanted to know why the Fed was paying the banks double the "declared" FedFunds Rate,---he rolled off a large number as How much that was Per Year, and wasn't that encouraging the big banks to NOT lend this money to those who want it.

Not to worry sez Trader Yellen...we make more on the instruments that we hold ---Treas, MBS---than we pay out, we actually make money TraderYellen Sez...we returned $100bln to the Treasury last year....(with pride in her voice)

But wait but wait.....still waiting as the Obvious follow-up question was never put to Trader Yellen...Where is the Congresssional Mandate does it say that the Fed is a Profit Making Trading Operation..

Paris ib 20:28 GMT February 10, 2016
USD sell off PART II

The USD is in trouble. Big time. Period.

london red 20:26 GMT February 10, 2016
USD/JPY

113.30 ish is 50% fib of 100/125 and monthly kijun. heavy stops below there. they should bounce at that point at least once. this weeks one and only lrg downside option expiries on friday 11350.

'Israel' 'Dil' 20:26 GMT February 10, 2016
USD/JPY

Buy USDJPY
Entry: 113.62 Target: 114+ Stop: 113.42

hit and run style on every gain above cost

Paris ib 20:23 GMT February 10, 2016
USD/JPY

Depends on your time frame. Short term: 110 (by say end of month) longer term 100 by mid year tops.

Paris ib 20:22 GMT February 10, 2016
USD/JPY: the canary in the coal mine

Absolutely no bounce on this pair. Going hunting to see what is out there. More downside coming up. Risk of BoJ is always out there, so beware, but looks like we are heading to 113 and lower.

The new narrative: we have this wonderful economic recovery but outside events (China, Oil, blah, blah) mean that we may see adverse economic reactions in the States and solely for this reason rate hikes are on hold and we could maybe even EASE.

Translation: no recovery (as expected) and the USD is at risk.

Miami JN 20:20 GMT February 10, 2016
USD/JPY

Raise your hand if you tried to buy the usdjpy dip? Not me luckily.

Anyone have a target level on the downside?

'Livingston' 'nh' 20:16 GMT February 10, 2016
MXN
Reply   
The Mexican Peso is about to break above 19 and probably hit 20 before Q2 -- CAD 1.50 ??

'USA' 'ZEUS' 20:06 GMT February 10, 2016
EUR/USD

Added EUR/USD short at 1.1277

'Livingston' 'nh' 19:55 GMT February 10, 2016
SUCKERS
Reply   
The 10 yr Treasury is now at 1.70 and inflation is 1.80 -- NORMAL would be 10 yr @ 3.50 // it's never different

Beijing Lawen 19:53 GMT February 10, 2016
EUR/USD

Hi ZEUS, I have seen your many cool calls here, but have never seen any stops were put when you entered a trade. Cheers.

'Livingston' 'nh' 19:44 GMT February 10, 2016
YELLEN

Re; US debt -- Fed has 20% of fed debt that it will feed back to Gov't - so the deficit is hardly a problem -- it is one of the reasons the Fed is supporting a Fiscal tightening// government debt is MONEY and Fed's job in years past was to control the growth of currency

USA ZEUS 19:28 GMT February 10, 2016
Crude Oil Currency

Added WTI long at 27.27

USA ZEUS 19:25 GMT February 10, 2016
EUR/USD

Added EUR/USD short at 1.1266

Cheers!

PAR 18:33 GMT February 10, 2016
YELLEN
Reply   
Sounding rather pessimistic , especially about ballooning UD government debt . From $ 10 trillion to $ 20 trillion in less than 8 years . YES WE CAN

USA ZEUS 18:29 GMT February 10, 2016
EUR/USD

Short EUR/USD at 1.1251

GVI john 18:15 GMT February 10, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

Yellen finished. She testifies again Thursday and will re-release the same prepared text. She will have an opportunity to correct anything said today they feel needs fixing, but nothing stands out to me.

'Belgrade' 'TD' 18:07 GMT February 10, 2016
ZEUS

Zeus is a legend, as well as Lahore and many others ... best call on this forum, that I followed, for fun, on a mini account, was Rama call ... eurjpy at ~ 132 he called 76 ... and just for fun, I open this position and leave ... it's mini account but the result, on the end, was 50+ dollars ... it was amazing ...

'Livingston' 'nh' 18:06 GMT February 10, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

The Great Philosopher was right

'GVI 'john 18:04 GMT February 10, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

10yr auction yield 1.730%
bid-to-cover 2.56 vs 2.58
Strong Auction

'Livingston' 'nh' 17:56 GMT February 10, 2016
Daily TA trade

you might want to risk a leg in - buy a bit now and a bit on close - if the robots start to buy it will be earlier than the b/o lvl

USA ZEUS 17:54 GMT February 10, 2016
ZEUS

'Livingston' 'nh' 17:44 GMT 02/10/2016

Thanks mate. I was too close as an insider with a great realtime view of the implosion. Watched the shift in wirehouse bidding on mortgage tapes and margin calls on lender wholesale lines of credit....
Z

'Belgrade' 'TD' 17:49 GMT February 10, 2016
Daily TA trade

IF spx manage to close 1h above 1885, am going long too ... right now 1870 (1h close) is upper limit for spx ...

USA ZEUS 17:49 GMT February 10, 2016
EUR/USD

nh- Hi there. Perhaps it's a basket effort by NIRPs -Austria, Denmark, Germany, Switzerland, and Purk's The Netherlands...Or was it the more well heeled likes of Portugal, Spain, and Greece?


All the best,
Z

'Livingston' 'nh' 17:44 GMT February 10, 2016
ZEUS
Reply   
As long as Zeus is around - the best call he ever made in my experience was the sub-prime -- I looked at the numbers and figured this amount can be covered by the Fed in a month -- HE was right // Fed fked the pooch and the economy paid for it the past 8 years

'Livingston' 'nh' 17:35 GMT February 10, 2016
EUR/USD

Hey Zeus - who's loaning DB the money to redeem certain bonds ?? Can you get me in on that ??

And all that do-gooder money for the poor immigrants ?? where's that coming from ??

'dc' 'CB' 17:32 GMT February 10, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

funny they way she keeps refering to the Finacial Crises...almost like it was last week, or last year at the most... it was 8 years ago you cow, and U and the Fed........

USA ZEUS 17:31 GMT February 10, 2016
EUR/USD
Reply   
EUR/USD at 1.1234. Is it about to crater? Something tells me that it is.

Cheers!

'Livingston' 'nh' 17:29 GMT February 10, 2016
Daily TA trade

Step right up -- there was a Great Philosopher who once opined that a certain type of homo sapiens was born every minute

'Mtl' 'JP' 17:28 GMT February 10, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

Yellen - financial conditions “have become less supportive to growth.”
to growth of what ?

'dc' 'CB' 17:27 GMT February 10, 2016
Daily TA trade

in about 30min we'll get to find out how many are willing to take a 10Y for 1.72.

'Livingston' 'nh' 17:25 GMT February 10, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

John - yellen v. Volcker(or Martin if you go that far back, hhahah?) -- market v. fed?

london red 17:24 GMT February 10, 2016
Daily TA trade

yes i noticed they did the 70's gap and back down. but now out of ideas it seems. gone stale 1830/1870.

'Livingston' 'nh' 17:20 GMT February 10, 2016
Daily TA trade

red -spx filled the gap and backed off to the rising 21 ma (15min chart) - has to break free of the oil influence but seems the selling has burned out for a while -- gaps above and below tho

london red 17:15 GMT February 10, 2016
Daily TA trade

euro. if can clear 52/57 will get legs some res at 74 and 85 but they can tap 113 if yen has another leg. should be a fade at 113 stop abv high maybe on hourly close. s&p stubbornly firm is sideways, but enough to cause usd a death by thousand cuts rather than swift move. if stocks can fall off may get todays capitulation.

'Belgrade' 'TD' 17:07 GMT February 10, 2016
Daily TA trade

out of Long /NQ (NAS100) ~3994 and going Short on same ... earlier, oil, 1Lot was closed at PP and rest at BE ...

USA ZEUS 17:07 GMT February 10, 2016
USD/JPY

Trippled position at 113.77

'Belgrade' 'TD' 17:02 GMT February 10, 2016
Gotta love 'The Narrative'



maybe there are more of BOJ but i remember this two days / chart

'Livingston' 'nh' 17:02 GMT February 10, 2016
Gotta love 'The Narrative'

seems to me that the yen move has hit every cross - this has nothing to do w/USD - it's specific to Japan

The EUR/USD is more telling but that has limits to the upside
From the USD position if the market is missing the Fed intent (one and done?) then there will be no place to hide when reality bites them (inflation is the key here becuz of the 10 yr which is not as influenced by the Fed)

USA ZEUS 17:01 GMT February 10, 2016
Crude Oil Currency
Reply   
Long WTI at 27.77

Cheers!

london red 16:59 GMT February 10, 2016
Gotta love 'The Narrative'

just rolling over again. maybe another look at 11393-98 and if no under then can move to 11440/50/60 maybe. but if under then hv further to go.

london red 16:57 GMT February 10, 2016
Gotta love 'The Narrative'

114 is a pt for some folks from 119/120/123 trades. final pt is 110 on that particular bunch.

Paris ib 16:53 GMT February 10, 2016
Gotta love 'The Narrative'

Personally I think we done a bit and take a rest here to reassess. Then we get some interesting asset allocation decisions.

The established narrative has been damaged. And I don't think there is a lot they can do about it. Moving to a less bullish USD persepective.

Paris ib 16:50 GMT February 10, 2016
Gotta love 'The Narrative'

Late 90s... wasn't trading. I remember the stories around about Japan going bankrupt and so on at that time. Earlier that decade Japanese banks were having trouble with limits on interbank. I was in the market then and I remember no-one would trade with them following downgrading by ratings agencies. Sort of like the Euro crisis I guess. Would have been interesting before and after the Plaza accord...

GVI john 16:49 GMT February 10, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

I think the take away from Yellen today is that she has presented the case for delaying the March rate hike, but is sticking to their intention to raise rates whenever they can justify such a policy move. I know that sounds like double talk, but clearly she does not want to be painted into a corner.

I think she is saying no rate hike in March, and the FOMC will decide later about June depending on future data. I guess this is supportive of stox.

london red 16:49 GMT February 10, 2016
Gotta love 'The Narrative'

i must admit the last two yen trades ive bought dollar dips c 114 i dont expect intervention as they tend not to fight trends especially when they are unfolding and we are barely under 115, but folks high up tend these days to be less smart than you expect them to be, hence prefer to use options for downside at present.

'Belgrade' 'TD' 16:48 GMT February 10, 2016
Gotta love 'The Narrative'

few years ago ... BOJ intervention ... if I remember correctly in a few hours huge drop than BOJ and hugeee up

london red 16:46 GMT February 10, 2016
Gotta love 'The Narrative'

it may have been about 20 over the 2 days but fell a lot more than that during that move in the late 90's. carry trades got blown out of the water. you were sat there just watching a figure go, then another then another. so nothing surprises me in fx.

Paris ib 16:41 GMT February 10, 2016
Gotta love 'The Narrative'

I don't think I ever saw 30 yen in two days. When did that happen?

Paris ib 16:40 GMT February 10, 2016
Gotta love 'The Narrative'

USD/JPY always leads... but the tone has been set. Blasting through now...

london red 16:39 GMT February 10, 2016
Gotta love 'The Narrative'

30 yen in 2 days is big. this is nothing.

london red 16:38 GMT February 10, 2016
Gotta love 'The Narrative'

euro. looks like last attempt higher before some daily downside. fade rallies 113/11350. its just not making new highs on usdjpy lows. doesnt mean end of rally, can be a puse for a day.

Paris ib 16:38 GMT February 10, 2016
Gotta love 'The Narrative'

Or do the committed USD bulls start to panic?

Paris ib 16:37 GMT February 10, 2016
Gotta love 'The Narrative'

right red... looks like we test them. FWIW only the BoJ stepping in looks like it will stop this move, which is beginning to look like a fundamental change in perspective. The whole economic recovery and rate hike narrative is up for grabs at this point. And the marked in 2015 was all USD positive. My only concern is that the move has been so big so far... do we take a breather?

london red 16:35 GMT February 10, 2016
Gotta love 'The Narrative'

multiple sup at 113.28-33 lvl should bounce there at least like off this 23.6.

Paris ib 16:34 GMT February 10, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

And the implications are USD bearish. The question is: how much is in the market already? Are we set up for a big dummy spit here?

london red 16:34 GMT February 10, 2016
Gotta love 'The Narrative'

11393-98 is 23.6 of 80/125. likely to harbour stops.

GVI john 16:33 GMT February 10, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

I am not a big follower of Hilsenrath. I don't think he has the lines into that others do, but I think these observations are probably on the mark.

GVI john 16:31 GMT February 10, 2016
BREAKING NEWS




WSJ's Hilsenrath
-- Fed sees risks to economy rising
-- Testimony underscores belief Fed will not hike in March
-- Note Yellen spoke at length on global developments

'Paris' 'ib' 16:29 GMT February 10, 2016
Gotta love 'The Narrative'

Stops under 114? You think?

Paris ib 16:20 GMT February 10, 2016
Gotta love 'The Narrative'

Thinking the BoJ will try to hold 114 FWIW. Still bearish medium term but not willing to take a huge risk on a break here.

'Hillegom' 'Purk' 16:20 GMT February 10, 2016
Gotta love 'The Narrative'

Good. Now i know you are a trader instead of a talker no doer...

london red 16:19 GMT February 10, 2016
Gotta love 'The Narrative'

if broken nxt beefy at 113.28/32. below there air to 110xx

Paris ib 16:19 GMT February 10, 2016
Gotta love 'The Narrative'

As the narrative of economic recovery and a steady path to tighter monetary policy breaks down the USD bullish case also breaks down. 114 under threat...

Paris ib 16:18 GMT February 10, 2016
Gotta love 'The Narrative'

Yes.

london red 16:16 GMT February 10, 2016
Gotta love 'The Narrative'

113.93/94 lt fib

'Hillegom' 'Purk' 16:16 GMT February 10, 2016
Gotta love 'The Narrative'

Nope, just say yes or no.

'Paris' 'ib' 16:14 GMT February 10, 2016
Gotta love 'The Narrative'

And you want me to share my positions?

'Hillegom' 'Purk' 16:13 GMT February 10, 2016
Gotta love 'The Narrative'

Yep, rest is crap. This is a traders forum...

Paris ib 16:12 GMT February 10, 2016
Gotta love 'The Narrative'

Really?

'Hillegom' 'Purk' 16:11 GMT February 10, 2016
Gotta love 'The Narrative'

The big question is IB, ARE YOU SHORT USD/JPY?????

'Paris' 'ib' 16:08 GMT February 10, 2016
Gotta love 'The Narrative'

USD/JPY the focus of the 'possibility' the FED might take a U turn on its not PRESET monetary policy course. Ease? Well we'll see...

Paris ib 16:06 GMT February 10, 2016
Gotta love 'The Narrative'

The causes of the turmoil: China, Oil, China's exchange rate policy. ALL nothing to do with us. All external causes. Stick to the narrative.

Monetary policy not on a preset course. No? Recession this year? Well let's just waffle about this. Some risk of a recession... always is. And if we get one we will blame global financial developments.

I don't think it will be necessary to cut rates... BUT we would do what is needed. So NOT off the table at this point.

GVI Forex Blog 16:03 GMT February 10, 2016
GVI Data Calendar for 11 February 2016
Reply   


February 10, 2016 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Thursday, February 10, 2016. Trading News Calendar

  • Far East: CN/JP- Holiday
  • Europe: CH- CPI
  • North America: US- Weekly Jobless, Yellen Testimony, Natural Gas
WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:

11-Feb Thursday
CN- Holiday
JA- Holiday
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
15:00 US- Yellen Testifies
12-Feb Friday
CN- Holiday
13:30 US- Retail Sales
15:00 US- University of Michigan (prelim)

GVI Data Calendar for 11 February 2016

'dc' 'CB' 16:00 GMT February 10, 2016
Yellen

don't know if you're watching/listening this but so far none of the questions are kissing the queen's feet...rather the opposite. and the queen is not being successfull at obsfuscating.

Amman wfakhoury 15:54 GMT February 10, 2016
EURUSD 11190 zig zag

11190 touched second time

Amman wfakhoury 15:47 GMT February 10, 2016
EURUSD 11190 zig zag


The only one in the world who confirms the next level

First touch 11190

Amman wfakhoury 15:40 GMT February 10, 2016
EURUSD 11190 zig zag
Reply   
EURUSD will move into zig zag pattern any decline up to 11190

'Livingston' 'nh' 15:37 GMT February 10, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

Refineries pushing products into storage again

GVI Jay 15:35 GMT February 10, 2016
My Wednesday Trades

1.1162 tested, perfect

GVI john 15:35 GMT February 10, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

Crude Supplies fall when a build was expected.

'Mtl' 'JP' 15:34 GMT February 10, 2016
My Wednesday Trades

eurdlr Pivot at 1.1169

\'GVI \'john 15:33 GMT February 10, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

US EIA Weekly Inventories

U.S. Data Charts






NEWS ALERT
Crude Oil: -0.750 vs. +3.900 exp vs. +7.790 prev.
Gasoline: +1.250 vs. +0.400 exp vs. +5.90 prev.
Distillates: +1.280 vs. -1.400 exp vs. -0.780 prev.
Cap/Util: 86.1% vs. 85.6% prev.




Weekly Petroleum Status Report



TTN: Live News Special Offer

Amman wfakhoury 15:24 GMT February 10, 2016
EURUSD 100pips move 1.1222 confirmed

EURUSD moved 100 pips to down as I confirmed 11222


The only one in the world who confirms the next level


GVI Jay 15:14 GMT February 10, 2016
My Wednesday's Trade
Reply   
As I posted on GVI Forex earlier -- EURUSD coming into my initial target zone

While below 1.1250, EURUSD risk is for 1.12125 (50%) and 1.1200-05 (100 hour mva) with 1.1162 key support below it. If not tested, then 1.1250 has potential to be a magnet.


'HK' 'Kwun' 14:48 GMT February 10, 2016
Dow is rebouding

Sell Gold
Entry: 1183 Target: Stop: 1193

yellen is playing me, stopped

'dc' 'CB' 14:46 GMT February 10, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

On Wednesday, BP CEO Robert Dudley - who earlier this month reported the worst annual loss in company history - is out warning that storage tanks will be completely full by the end of H1. "We are very bearish for the first half of the year," Dudley said at the IP Week conference in London Wednesday. "In the second half, every tank and swimming pool in the world is going to fill and fundamentals are going to kick in," ZH

'Livingston' 'nh' 14:38 GMT February 10, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

WTI making new lows may be more influential than yellen

'Livingston' 'nh' 14:17 GMT February 10, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

John - Yellen represents the CASE for Truman's one handed economists // leaders with some starch and a plan are usually more successful than 'wait and see' types

GVI Forex Blog 14:06 GMT February 10, 2016
How to Test an Algo, System or Signals Service
Reply   

I remember many years ago a new trader came to be asking for guidance after subscribing to a signals service and losing 80-% of his capital in one month. I never forgot this and why I ask anyone selling a forex algo, system or signals service whether the results are from a live or demo account. This does not mean that there may not be value in this product but that performance will vary between live and demo trading.

How to Test an Algo, System or Signals Service

GVI john 13:56 GMT February 10, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

Yellen plays both sides of the street. She gives a rationale for further rate hikes, but gives the FOMC an excuse for possible delays.

Markets never seem to grasp that the Fed Chair cannot front-run the FOMC. She cannot make policy on her own.

HK [email protected] 13:54 GMT February 10, 2016
This time markets will salute Yellen, for she was truthful.
Reply   


Ya we are well screwed!

'dc' 'CB' 13:54 GMT February 10, 2016
Yellen

Cud be some fireworks during the Q&A.
But that aside, she passed the ball to Draggi.

london red 13:50 GMT February 10, 2016
Mostly expected not to expect too much:(

yes unless 60/70 pips outside from 115/11250 then disinterest. fireworks if option related sup/res broken as then bigger fish to fry.

london red 13:48 GMT February 10, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

euro. 11340 11302 (stops abv) 11280 11252/46/35 119/11190 11180/67 and yest low 11162 stops likely below here, then 11120/09.

'Livingston' 'nh' 13:47 GMT February 10, 2016
Yellen

She is still on about the "neutral rate" which means she will not disavow NIRP and indicates there is no chance that the Fed will move to release its balance sheet to productive purposes

Still making it up as they go along

HK [email protected] 13:46 GMT February 10, 2016
Mostly expected not to expect too much:(
Reply   


And the market knew it ahead and priced it.

It may turn into a yawn.

london red 13:44 GMT February 10, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

yen. 11629/33 11580/85 11547/52 115 11420 114/11393.

'Belgrade' 'TD' 13:41 GMT February 10, 2016
Yellen
Reply   
WASHINGTON--Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen flagged risks to the economic outlook that could delay the central bank's plans for raising short-term interest rates, in prepared remarks for her semiannual testimony to Congress on U.S. monetary policy.
Financial conditions have become less supportive of economic growth, stresses in China and other foreign economies could weigh further on the U.S., and market expectations for inflation are sinking, Ms. Yellen said, kicking off two days of testimony before House and Senate committees.

Without explicitly pointing to the prospect of delayed rate increases, her recitation of these risks gave her comments a downbeat undertone. That in turn underscored the Fed's cautiousness about following through with additional short-term interest-rate increases after pushing them up in December. Before that move, the Fed had kept rates near zero for seven years.
"Financial conditions in the United States have recently become less supportive of growth, with declines in broad measures of equity prices, higher borrowing rates for riskier borrowers, and a further appreciation of the dollar," Ms. Yellen said. "These developments, if they persist, could weigh on the outlook for economic activity and the labor market, although declines in longer-term interest rates and oil prices provide some offset."
When the Fed pushed short-term interest rates higher in December, officials penciled in four quarter-percentage- point rate increases for 2016. Investors have been skeptical of those projections, increasingly so in recent weeks.

The Fed's next policy meeting is March 15-16 . Traders in futures markets see virtually no chance of a move then and just a 19% chance the Fed will move at all again this year, according to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange . The Fed's target for its benchmark federal-funds rate is between 0.25% and 0.5%.

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

london red 13:40 GMT February 10, 2016
Yellen prepared text is released at 13:30 GMT

yen for today nothing but thursday lrg 116 and friday lrg 11350. there is no other downside cover for yen below 115. so if goes goes big.

london red 13:39 GMT February 10, 2016
Yellen prepared text is released at 13:30 GMT

a squeeze to 113 is prob a fade. no hourly close abv a poss since options showing v little vols.

london red 13:38 GMT February 10, 2016
Yellen prepared text is released at 13:30 GMT

biggest day is friday with lrg at 108 111 112 and some 110. not much abv 112 til 115. downside v well covered

'HK' 'Kwun' 13:37 GMT February 10, 2016
Dow is rebouding

but market is reacting now, leak out?

GVI john 13:37 GMT February 10, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

Yellen comments acknowledge current economic risks, but keeps options open.

'Livingston' 'nh' 13:36 GMT February 10, 2016
Dow is rebouding

no - it's just a copy of witten presentation

'HK' 'Kwun' 13:35 GMT February 10, 2016
Dow is rebouding

Sell Gold
Entry: 1183 Target: Stop: 1193

yellen speech is started?

'Livingston' 'nh' 13:35 GMT February 10, 2016
Yellen prepared text is released at 13:30 GMT

Same old same old --

GVI john 13:34 GMT February 10, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

U.S. Prepared Text of Fed Chair Congressional Testimony



NEWS ALERT
-- Foreign Economic Developments Pose Risks
-- Expects gradual Rate rises. Not on a pre-set course
-- Policy remains accomodative
-- Gains in employment and wages should support consumer spending


TTN: Live News Special Offer

jkt abel 13:31 GMT February 10, 2016
Yellen prepared text is released at 13:30 GMT

red, do you have options level with 1.11 handle this week?

'dc' 'CB' 13:28 GMT February 10, 2016
Yellen prepared text is released at 13:30 GMT

zerohedge ‏@zerohedge 45s45 seconds ago

Algos will read the Yellen statement in 10 microseconds

jkt abel 13:28 GMT February 10, 2016
Yellen prepared text is released at 13:30 GMT

one would hope euro 1.1250 would be a support instead of resistance pre-Yellen

london red 13:26 GMT February 10, 2016
Yellen prepared text is released at 13:30 GMT

euro and yen daily straddles come in further to 50 and 60 pips respectively and those will be initial sup/res as far as option related concerned. they are not expecting much volatility.

'Livingston' 'nh' 13:12 GMT February 10, 2016
Yellen prepared text is released at 13:30 GMT

Yellen gets the chance today to move out on her own - confidence "the time of crisis has passed" -- questions about a US NIRP should be firmly refuted as inappropriate in our economy but may be OK for others

The advantage of Congressional testimony is the 'strawman' arguments that are posed by the interlocutors -- the data dependent mantra is too vague better to leave no doubt on policy
___

Take the wind out of the Sanders/Trump camp because they are both coming after the Fed

'Hillegom' 'Purk' 12:43 GMT February 10, 2016
European banking/financial stocks and not only European

Well you know me, 20-200 pips and i am out. The 157 handle last night was a good one, sneaky as always the e/c...
usd/c as well, just sell on poppies.
usd/jpy working on the entries...

\'GVI \'john 12:42 GMT February 10, 2016
My Wednesday Trades

Nothing to watch until the Q&A. The prepared text will come over the wires at 13:30 GMT.

I watch the Q&A because it gives me a better feel for what the Fed is thinking. It also is unscripted.

'Israel' 'Dil' 12:40 GMT February 10, 2016
European banking/financial stocks and not only European

a huge miss in case I didn't do anything when market went 100+ pips my way.... when you have gain just make sure it will not turn into loss after it, that's all about trading ;-)

'Hillegom' 'Purk' 12:37 GMT February 10, 2016
European banking/financial stocks and not only European

Well but you missed out on the eur/cad trade, LOL

'Israel' 'Dil' 12:35 GMT February 10, 2016
European banking/financial stocks and not only European

so, let's bottom line it as beginners luck ;-)

'Hillegom' 'Purk' 12:34 GMT February 10, 2016
My Wednesday Trades

All we need are cigarettes and Alcohol? Oasis...

'Mtl' 'JP' 12:31 GMT February 10, 2016
My Wednesday Trades

john 12:04 r u going to be watching her on TV ?
if Y - why ?

london red 12:31 GMT February 10, 2016
Yellen prepared text is released at 13:30 GMT

that way todays ny cut gets the speech and tomorrows the q&a. and remember she gets to "correct" any mishap today in tomorrows speech, probably in the q&a session.

HK [email protected] 12:27 GMT February 10, 2016
Yellen prepared text is released at 13:30 GMT
Reply   

She reads it to Congress starting at 15:00 GMT.

Why? Not enough 2 hours to read it? FUNNY!!!

'Livingston' 'nh' 12:22 GMT February 10, 2016
usdjpy

from notes - NIRP may be the turnaround, cold water in the face of theorists running CBs -- Japan has now made it impossible to make any money in country - the Nikkei is collapsing, savers after years of punishment are facing he need to save even more, banks won't lend so money can't move, real estate is a losing investment and the yen is rallying encouraging more job outflow by corps

Japan now joins Switzerland as the exception to the rule that you can always weaken your currency

GVI john 12:04 GMT February 10, 2016
My Wednesday Trades

The better tone for equities heading into the Yellen testimony later weighing on the EUR crosses at this hour. Markets seem to have high expectations for her testimony today. I understand the Yellen prepared text is released at 13:30 GMT. She reads it to Congress starting at 15:00 GMT and live questions start subsequently.

london 11:27 GMT February 10, 2016
buy euro

Vols on dailues about avg for a normal day but really no premium built in for yellen. they are expecting much. writers can be wrong but usually they are on the ball.

singapore td 11:24 GMT February 10, 2016
buy euro

better entry is around 1.1240 IMHO

perth wtr 11:21 GMT February 10, 2016
buy euro

try long euro 1.1261, stop 1.1231

'Mtl' 'JP' 11:20 GMT February 10, 2016
My Wednesday Trades

on zh:
I just rec'd a transcript of the speech.
It starts off with the following admission:

Dear parasites,
The host is not yet dead.

kl shawn 11:15 GMT February 10, 2016
buy euro

bought small 1.1260, adding lower before setting stop

kl fs 11:09 GMT February 10, 2016
buy euro

abel, another test of the support coming and I will also buy it

jkt abel 11:05 GMT February 10, 2016
buy euro
Reply   
euro may be a buy if stay above 1.1250 before Yellen with stop below 1.1210

'HK' 'Kwun' 10:46 GMT February 10, 2016
Dow is rebouding
Reply   
Sell Gold
Entry: 1183 Target: Stop: 1193

so no risk sentiment changed, sell now

london red 10:29 GMT February 10, 2016
My Wednesday Trades

daily straddles atm current about 65 for euro 75 for yen

'Belgrade' 'TD' 09:59 GMT February 10, 2016
Daily TA trade

1/3 out from long /NQ with ~50p+ ... stop at BE ... reducing risk

GVI john 09:53 GMT February 10, 2016
My Wednesday Trades
Reply   
DAX +146
DJ +109
SP +16

US 1.759% +2.5 bp
DE 0.256% +2.2
UK 1.410% +1.7
JA 1.200% +3.0

EUR crosses weaker across the board

wti $28.54 +0.59 ($28.73-28.29)

Waiting for Yellen testimony. Expect her to cheerlead the economy, but to stick to the party line that policy remains data-dependent. The markets could be looking for more from her than what can be reasonably expected. I see a room for market disappointment today.






jkt abel 09:50 GMT February 10, 2016
buy audusd?
Reply   
inverse SHS on hourly fwiw

'Belgrade' 'TD' 09:48 GMT February 10, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

"less worse than expecting" - well-known phrase, just few years ago ...

nw kw 09:47 GMT February 10, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

eur/gbp looks to have orders bit large.

jkt abel 09:44 GMT February 10, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

interesting, with weaker data, cable is up!

GVI Forex Blog 09:39 GMT February 10, 2016
Global-View Trading Technologies
Reply   

Global-View Trading Technologies

GVI john 09:35 GMT February 10, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

UK output data weaker than expected.

GVI john 09:33 GMT February 10, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

UK Industrial/Manufacturing Output December 2016

U.K. Charts




-- NEWS ALERT --

Ind mm: -1.10% vs. -0.10% exp. vs. -0.70% (r -0.80%)prev.
Mfg mm: -0.20% vs. +0.10% exp. vs. -0.40% (r -0.30%) prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Forex Blog 09:22 GMT February 10, 2016
Global-View Trading Technologies
Reply   

USD Pivot Points, Support and Resistance Levels. Chart Point tables.

Global-View Trading Technologies

Amman wfakhoury 09:11 GMT February 10, 2016
EURUSD 100pips move 1.1222 confirmed
Reply   
100 pips move.
1.1222 confirmed
1.1266 return if rise.


The only one in the world who confirms the next level


jkt abel 08:41 GMT February 10, 2016
usdjpy

red, i think they will buy dips, still hours away from Yellen

london red 08:36 GMT February 10, 2016
usdjpy

euro. 52/46/35 fib sup. if they dont buy dip there, will run to 100ma/hourly cloud and find sup there.

london red 08:31 GMT February 10, 2016
usdjpy

re yellen and her commentsa thing to remember is that the fed is down on 3 -4 hikes this year, while market has gone none priced in fully by end 2016. yellen getting a little move dovish from her position is still unlikely to narrow the gap to market that much. secondly, in terms of dollar, fed likely to welcome weakness and yellen will try to sup markets but at same try may word that sup in a way to exclude the dollar. that might be her aim although she may not achieve it. might be impossible to do without saying it bluntly.

PAR 08:14 GMT February 10, 2016
Europe - Self Inflicted Pain
Reply   
NIR > killing European banks and european savers


Russian Sanctions > Killing European agricultural sector


European bureaucracy > killing European business

PAR 07:18 GMT February 10, 2016
NIR
Reply   
DJ Persistent Negative Yields in Japan Will Shrink Economy: Fukoku Mutual -- Market Talk

0556 GMT [Dow Jones] If negative yields continue in Japan that will make it difficult for banks to lend, leading to a shrinking of the economy, says Ichiro Yamada, general manager of equities department at Fukoku Mutual Life Insurance. The benchmark 10-year Japanese government bond yield is at 0.010% Wednesday, up slightly after dipping into negative territory Tuesday for the first time. "If negative yields persist, there will be no lenders no matter how much demand for money there is. The economy would have to contract as a result," he says. "Banking would be paralyzed." Japanese bank shares are leading the market's declines amid concerns about worsening profitability. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (8306.TO) is down 6.5% at 459.5 yen. Mizuho Financial Group (8411.TO) is down 5.6% at Y160.8.([email protected])


jkt abel 07:06 GMT February 10, 2016
usdjpy

[email protected], how do you suggest to play usdjpy in actual trading set up?

Jeddah Abb 06:33 GMT February 10, 2016
.
Reply   
Buy GBPUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:

buy Gbpusd 1.4484 target 1.466...

HK [email protected] 06:07 GMT February 10, 2016
usdjpy


USD/JPY; Almost all traders are bearishing this pair.

And BOJ, is huffing and puffing etc. etc.

jkt abel 05:06 GMT February 10, 2016
usdjpy

nothing is going to be broken before Yellen, so calm down mate

kl fs 04:59 GMT February 10, 2016
usdjpy

usdjpy support will be severely tested....going ...going....GONE and welcome 113.70 then 112.80 :)

GVI 04:34 GMT February 10, 2016
usdjpy

Nikkei down almost 3%, USDJPY follows but above the 114.21 Tues low

'dc' 'CB' 03:35 GMT February 10, 2016
"So why in the world would a cruise ship with thousands of passengers go sailing right into it?'

uh

so why in the world...wud a CEO...or a Central Banker(Draggii,Yellen, Carney, Kurdoa....let me count the .......
is that what U mean?

"ARROGANT CAPTAIN SYNDROME"

Moby DICK

kl shawn 03:06 GMT February 10, 2016
usdjpy

battle of 115 today

'Mtl' 'JP' 01:26 GMT February 10, 2016
usdjpy

usdyen started to go home again
time to try to goad a japanese jawflapper

HK [email protected] 00:15 GMT February 10, 2016
"So why in the world would a cruise ship with thousands of passengers go sailing right into it?'
Reply   


I am familiar with this situation.

I name it: "ARROGANT CAPTAIN SYNDROME"

'dc' 'CB' 00:07 GMT February 10, 2016
PREVIEW: Fed Chair Yellen Testimony This Week

Pre Yellen

PropOganda NPR Marketplace Financial NEWZ for the Millenials(who have no money to invest.....SToX up and down today but just off a bit at the close...play the semi happy muzic....Reasons - OIL, after all China was closed, Japan where is that...no mention of Japan, with they mention Deutsche Bank..........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................well until tomorow...cue hip music. it's cool baby have another toke, but only if you live where da good guys in guvmint sez it's legal...otherwise VodKA.

 




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