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Forex Forum Archive for 02/14/2016

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GVI Forex john bland 23:48 GMT February 14, 2016
My Monday Trades


15-Feb Monday
US- Holiday
16-Feb Tuesday
09:30 GB- CPI
10:00 DE- ZEW Survey
17-Feb Wednesday
13:30 US- PPI
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
18-Feb Thursday
00:30 AU- Employment
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
16:00 US- Weekly Crude
19-Feb Friday
09:30 GB- Retail Sales
13:30 CA- Retail Sales
13:30 US/CA- CPI

dc CB 23:26 GMT February 14, 2016
Fun with Covers

So Stock futures gap higher. So finally this week the "press" hints that maybe, just maybe the Markets are in trouble and maybe just maybe U shud worry about your portfolio

Gee the Dow, the SnP, the Naz are Down 10 to 14+% since the start of the year. Ya think it's time to warn the sheeple>

The markets are responding largely to global factors, including deflated oil prices and fears about weak global growth, particularly in China. But those factors are now forging a new and unsettled stage in America’s seven-year recovery: one in which it’s harder for ordinary workers and 401k holders to build wealth.

“Since this whole dive has started, I’ve been afraid to even look at my 401k,” said Jeff Sawyer, 59, who works for an apparel company in Whitefield, N.H. and is considering delaying retirement.

Carol Helton, 61, has watched her retirement account shrink by more than $100,000 over the past several months, the equivalent of about two years’ worth of the income she and her husband hope to have in retirement. “That’s two and a half more years at least that I have to work,” says Helton, who has abandoned her goal of retiring at 63, realizing she may have to wait closer to 70.

Financial advisers and investment firms around the country say they have been fielding more calls than usual from savers who are wondering if the market slide will force them to rework their retirement plans.

“People want to know the market outlook. They’re asking: ‘should I make a change or shouldn’t I?,'” said Jeanne Thompson, a vice president at Fidelity Investments.

Liz Ann Sonders, the chief investment strategist for Charles Schwab, recommends that investors stick to their long-term plans and not hold more money in stocks than necessary.

“The question everyone wants to know is how much worse will this get,” she said. “The short answer is we don’t know.”

As stocks fall, anxiety soars for retirement savers

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 23:12 GMT February 14, 2016
Forex Trading Outlook: Will USDJPY Revisit 115?


Global markets are ending a hectic week with some relief after risk off sentiment gripped it most of the time. This sets the stage for the coming week where the focus will be on the JPY initially and given the firmer close in USDJPY, the BoJ could put on a squeeze if it so chooses. As for risk sentiment, it should continue to be influenced by the correlation between oil-equities-fx (and bonds).

Forex Trading Outlook: Will USDJPY Revisit 115?

Amsterdam 22:43 GMT February 14, 2016
Forex Analytics and Forecasts from R.Butko, NordF
Forex Forecast for 15-19 February 2016

First, about last week’s forecast:
- the forecast for EUR/USD panned out 100% – the pair remained in a sideways trend until mid-week, then, after Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen’s speech, it broke through resistance at 1.1250 and rose to 1.1350. On achieving this, the pair reverted to 1.1250, turning it into support;
- the forecast for GBP/USD was that the pair would be moving in a 1.4400-1.4545 horizontal channel all week long. That actually happened – the pair stayed between 1.4380 support and 1.4560 resistance for all five days;
- it appeared impossible to make an intelligible prediction for USD/JPY as the experts’ opinions were split almost equally. In fact, the indicators and those who foresaw a further spectacular nosedive proved right. In two weeks, the pair plunged from 121.70 to the bottom of 111.00, i.e. by over 1,000 points, and reached the level of October 2014;
- last week, the analysts were at a loss regarding USD/CHF. The indications of graphical analysis were only partially correct. As expected, at the beginning of the week the pair approached 0.9980, then went down and quickly reached support at 0.9800. After that, instead of rebounding, USD/CHF moved further down, touched the bottom at 0.9660 and only then returned to 0.9800.

Forecast for Coming Week
Summarizing the views of several dozen analysts from leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be predicted:
- as for EUR/USD, 65% of the experts and the indicators on D1 talk about a continuing uptrend. At the same time, graphical analysis on D1 shows that the pair may go up to 1.1400 during the week and only then move down. The remaining 35% of the analysts and graphical analysis on H1 and H4 expect the pair to fall within the next five days. Graphical analysis, in turn, indicates that EUR/USD may stay in a sideways corridor of 1.1225-1.1320 for a day or two at the beginning of the week and then go down to the first support at 1.1150 and then even lower to 1.1030;
- according to graphical analysis, GBP/USD will first bounce to support at 1.4365 and then return to the upward trend that started in the last decade of January. The target is 1.4670. Both 60% of the analysts and the indicators on H1, H4 and D1 agree with this scenario. In the longer term, most experts tend to believe that the pair will again test the bottom of 1.4100;
- obviously the indicators haven’t yet come around after USD/JPY’s crash of the last two weeks. According to most experts and graphical analysis on H4, USD/JPY will continue its rebound up to resistance at 115.60;
- opinions about USD/CHF are split rather evenly – 40% of the experts are for a rise, 35% are for a fall and 25% are for a sideways trend. A similar pattern is observed with the indicators – a rise on H1, a fall on D1 and a compromise midway on H4 supporting neutral movement. Graphical analysis shows a further upward trend – on H4, the support line of the channel passes through the points of 0.9660 and 0.9720, and the resistance line passes through 0.9755 and 0.9810.

Roman Butko, NordFX

dc CB 22:05 GMT February 14, 2016
Obama get's to choose another Supreme

ps: Pres Sanders sends the Constitutional Scholar to SCOTUS

that would be the horse-trade of the decade...(or how the Democrat Machine finally nominated and backed Sanders)

dc CB 21:58 GMT February 14, 2016
Obama get's to choose another Supreme

well the Sanders would Bill would be dead of old age in not that many years... we'd be stuck with Booker for 30 or 40.

Livingston nh 21:51 GMT February 14, 2016
Obama get's to choose another Supreme

CB - HERE'S my scary - Pres Clinton nominates spouse to be a Scotus Justice -- Pres Sanders sends the Constitutional Scholar to SCOTUS

Booker not so BAD

Livingston nh 21:47 GMT February 14, 2016
Obama get's to choose another Supreme

Cb - he fled Newark at first opportunity -- he's not a bad guy but VERY political // Christie is the anomaly given the 2 US senators that represent NJ

Booker about as competent to be SCOTUS justice AS I AM TO BE A CARPENTER

dc CB 21:39 GMT February 14, 2016
Obama get's to choose another Supreme

Livingston nh 15:40

the scariest of the names floated that I've seen is Cory Booker...from Mayor of Newark NJ, to Jr Senator from NJ to the age of 46.....but you shud be quite familar with Cory.

GVI Forex Blog 21:34 GMT February 14, 2016
Global-View Trading Technologies

USD Pivot Points, Support and Resistance Levels. Chart Point tables.

Global-View Trading Technologies

GVI Forex john bland 21:21 GMT February 14, 2016
Commitment Of Traders Report

-- Note in the period ending last Tuesday that net EURUSD shorts continued to wind down.

-- Gold longs are back on the rise

-- Net S&P shorts (hedges?) were building

-- Net AUDUSD and GBPUSD shorts were declining. USD weakness?

Livingston nh 21:19 GMT February 14, 2016
Wkly charts on JPY show a "balloon" (89 ema) that was last seen in early 2014 -- if this pops 132 is the target

CAD hasn't responded but WTI looks to fail w/ a move to 124 - USD/CAD wkly @1.36 or an upmove from here on 4 hr to 1.39

EUR chart looks higher but floats on a sea of dollars -- fundamentals kill this one

GBP - most interesting - BREXIT would be very cable positive because most of Cameron's demands can be easily handled w/ national trade agreements -- UK gets out of the silly multi-national sovereignty encroachments -- wkly chart shows 1.49 on cable as breakout level

Livingston nh 19:58 GMT February 14, 2016

Dil - that's like a border skirmish (NK/SK) - Russia won't do anything until they can swarm whether its naval or air -- the initial move against Turkey CAN'T involve a violation of NATO border

Israel Dil 19:53 GMT February 14, 2016

Buy Gold
Entry: Target: Stop:

nh 15:19

the Syrian army confirmed they were shelled by Turkey. I think that Russia got the game changer they were waiting for.

Livingston nh 15:40 GMT February 14, 2016
Obama get's to choose another Supreme

There are some pretty important cases that were heard and expected to be decided w/ Kennedy as the swing vote -- a conservative victory is unlikely w/o Justice Scalia (4-4 w/ kennedy is the best)

I doubt the Senate will confirm any Pres Obama nominee - on an actuarial basis the next President could easily nominate 4 in a 2 year period -- there was pressure from Dems to have older lib Court members step down but that option is no help now

Livingston nh 15:19 GMT February 14, 2016

My opinion Turkey is not going to attack anybody but the Kurds - they dodged a bullet w/ that Russian plane shootdown and they know it // The Russian Navy is perfectly safe from Turkish interference for the same reason

Air to air for the Saudis is too risky so everybody will be shooting DOWN at the Ground Troops

___ What happened to that CEASEFIRE??

dc CB 06:14 GMT February 14, 2016
Fed Chair Yellen Opens Up On Policy

This brings me to the topic of Janet Yellen on the heels of her semi-annual Humphrey-Hawkins (the old name for it) testimony to Congress earlier this week. I’m not really sure how or why Janet Yellen was elevated to the Chairmanship of the Fed.....

She hopelessly either stammered through or avoided some questions tossed out at her by Congressmen to which she should have known the answers cold.

Greenspan was “the Maestro,” not because it took ingenuity to flood the system with liquidity with system every time the stock market started to head south but because his of his ingenious ability to spin his words into something that sounded highly intelligent.

Bernanke would show visible agitation and his face would flinch when he was given questions for which he was going to answer with a lie.

Janet Yellen, on the other hand, has been put into a seat for which she is pitifully unqualified. Not only does she appear to be incompetent as an economist, but she lacks any ability to think on her feet when confronted with questions beyond the scope of those she’s been programmed to answer since starting her career at the Fed in 1977.

The Mysterious Janet Yellen Plus The Retail Sales Data Farce

Mtl JP 01:55 GMT February 14, 2016

Breaking: Saudi Arabia moves planes to Turkey, Joint attack on Russian, Syrian and Kurdish forces begins (continually updated)
By Gordon Duff, Senior Editor on February 13, 2016
Confirmed: Russian and Syrian jets are on standby to shoot down any Turkish or Saudi plane that crosses into Syria. Turkey is prepared to close the Bosporus and attack Russian ships in the Mediterranean.
Maybe crude and Gold will change in price

dc CB 00:45 GMT February 14, 2016
Obama get's to choose another Supreme
“He was an extraordinary individual and jurist, admired and treasured by his colleagues,” Chief Justice Roberts said. “His passing is a great loss to the Court and the country he so loyally served.”

Justice Antonin Scalia, Who Led a Conservative Renaissance on the Supreme Court, Is Dead at 79


Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan

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