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Forex Forum Archive for 02/15/2016

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dc CB 23:55 GMT February 15, 2016
Oil: We have seen the bottom?

From one of the Masters of Jive


dc CB 23:44 GMT February 15, 2016
Oil: We have seen the bottom?

dosen't matter, what matters is in the thin access market the jive line got bought and stops were run. the API and EIA reports will be "late" this week due to the holiday ... so the battle is joined to get a better price for those .....200K contracts X 1000bls per contract.....200,000,000bls of oil that need a home...and since its WTI the only home is Cushing Oaklahoma.

shud be a fun week of dueling headlines

GVI Forex 23:13 GMT February 15, 2016
Oil: We have seen the bottom?

U.S. Oil prices extend gains to more than 3 pct, topping $30 a barrel as big Oil producers prepare to meet in doha

Mtl JP 20:12 GMT February 15, 2016
Oil: We have seen the bottom?

now pray tell why would Vlad - a type who does not depend on the price of crude for the survival of his banks his own political or economic - meet with the OPEC gang - unless it is to his advantage ?

dc CB 18:02 GMT February 15, 2016
Oil: We have seen the bottom?

zerohedge ‏@zerohedge 2m2 minutes ago


london red 17:52 GMT February 15, 2016
Oil: We have seen the bottom?

i have a wkly brent channel a whisker below 40 bucks. i wouldnt bet on it getting there but id take a short if up there.

dc CB 17:48 GMT February 15, 2016
Oil: We have seen the bottom?

but those guys that are Long March in the 30's are gonna' be talkin' the jive to get out at a better price this week.

note the source of that below posted higher prices quote...The Price Futures Group, Chicago

Livingston nh 17:30 GMT February 15, 2016
Oil: We have seen the bottom?

The folks who are betting on the low because of "talk" of production cuts and reduced capital expenditures may be whistling past the graveyard -- a modest rise in price will bring back some of the "lost" production because the barrier to re-entry is still low -- a rising price will also encourage an earlier episode of Cheating on cutbacks

Of course, it might be different this time

dc CB 17:27 GMT February 15, 2016

double dose

one from WmBanzai7

dc CB 17:21 GMT February 15, 2016
Oil: We have seen the bottom?

the March contract goes off the boards Mon 2-22, so 4 days to get out Long OR Short of 200K+ contracts. And Cushing is practically full.

CL - OI and Vol

GVI Forex Blog 17:17 GMT February 15, 2016
GVI Data Calendar for 16 February 2016

February 15, 2016 ( UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Tuesday, February 16, 2016. Trading News Calendar

  • Far East: No Major Data
  • Europe: GB- CPI, DE-ZEW
  • North America: US- Empire PMI, NAHB, TIC Flows

16-Feb Tuesday
09:30 GB- CPI
10:00 DE- ZEW Survey
17-Feb Wednesday
13:30 US- PPI
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
18-Feb Thursday
00:30 AU- Employment
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
16:00 US- Weekly Crude
19-Feb Friday
09:30 GB- Retail Sales
13:30 CA- Retail Sales
13:30 US/CA- CPI

GVI Data Calendar for 16 February 2016

GVI Forex Blog 16:51 GMT February 15, 2016
CHART POINTS: Free Forex Database

Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format

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dc CB 16:32 GMT February 15, 2016
early, but ultimately on the proper side

london red 16:32 GMT February 15, 2016

euro. 2/09 has been front run. id say if goes under 22-15 this time then will stop and bounce at 11080-11090. to sell it, id prefer to see 11200/20 and look for 11120/09 test then the 11080/90 and look to long 11050/60 with a stop under 11030. going under there takes us to top of prev range 10960/80. tail followed by wick on last two hourlies means mkt a bit undecided here.

Livingston nh 16:25 GMT February 15, 2016

CB - not to worry - DEFLATION is all around us

dc CB 16:16 GMT February 15, 2016

Livingston nh 16:11

a weekly trip to the supermarket for food/alcohol supplies dents way more than a single Benjamin. For a family of 4 it takes several Benjamins for that cartfull to pass thru the check-out

GVI Forex john bland 16:12 GMT February 15, 2016

BOE's McCafferty
-- dropped rate hike call on weak wages
-- case for rate rise less compelling
-- upside inflation risks haven't disappeared, but receded
-- BOE has scope to to cut rates, revive QE
-- EU referendum limited impact on economy so far

Livingston nh 16:11 GMT February 15, 2016

STUPID IS FOREVER -- all those crimes cured by such a simple change -- imagine if we could do EVEN more - the $50 and the $20 elimination might cure cancer or eliminate poverty

dc CB 16:04 GMT February 15, 2016

Have a $100bill US in your pocket...obviously U R a Criminal

at Harvard

NY JM 16:02 GMT February 15, 2016

Only someone living in a bunker would be surprised by a dovish Draghi

dc CB 16:00 GMT February 15, 2016
Oil: We have seen the bottom?
"There are a growing number of people that think the market has put in a bottom," said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at Price Futures Group in Chicago. "There�s a growing realization after all the announcements of cuts in capital expenditures that we�re going to see a drop in production."

Oil Speculators Shrug Off Huge Stockpiles to Bet on Price Climb

dc CB 15:50 GMT February 15, 2016

PAR 15:40 GMT
DJ Euro, Yen Reverse Some Of Last Week's Gains -- Market Talk

Headline should be:

CBs Flex come out strong off the ropes after the embarrassment of Yellen's Testimony last week. Big Hint at MOAR MOAR MOAR on bad Data in Japan Rockets Nikkei higher by 7.2%. Foolish gold buyer, who thought they were escaping NIRP, get their heads handed to them. In Europe, Master Criminal, Mario Draggi and his ECB gang ban the 500 euro note likening to an assault weapon used by criminals and terrorists.

US Stocks, with the Market Closed, Futures Ramp unconstrained by reallity, foreshadowing a Tues rally of historic proportions.

PAR 15:42 GMT February 15, 2016

CoCO s are not his DaDa .

HK Kwun 15:42 GMT February 15, 2016
Risk On

Sell Gold
Entry: 1213 Target: Stop: 1223

very fast, TP at 1203

dc CB 15:41 GMT February 15, 2016

The use of high-denomination notes, in particular the �500 note, is a problem reported by law enforcement authorities,� according to a draft of the plans seen by the Financial Times. �These notes are in high demand among criminal elements . . . due to their high value and low volume.�

If you see a �500 note in your wallet acting suspiciously, do not attempt to move it, but report it immediately to the authorities �

PAR 15:40 GMT February 15, 2016

DJ Euro, Yen Reverse Some Of Last Week's Gains -- Market Talk

1509 GMT Rising equity markets cause the euro and the yen to reverse some of last week's gains against the U.S. dollar. The euro is also dented by comments from European Central Bank President Mario Draghi that the central bank "will not hesitate to act" at its next policy meeting in March. EUR/USD is down 0.9% at $1.1151, pulling away from a near four-month high hit last week around $1.1377. USD/JPY is down 1% at 114.36, having last week dropped to a 15-month low around 111.00. A daily close above 114.0 would "signal that a more substantial USD/JPY rebound is in place," Morgan Stanley analysts say. ([email protected])

dc CB 15:39 GMT February 15, 2016

Update: in case there was any doubt about the ECB's true intentions, we just got the official "denial":


Translation: the ECB action is only about reducing physical cash, some 30% of it to be specific.

* * *

The first shot in the global war on cash was just fired, by none other than the ECB, which moments ago Handelsblatt reported...

ECB wants to stop issuing 500 Euro bills - our exclusive

� Daniel Sch�fer (@schaeferdaniel) February 15, 2016

... and Bloomberg confirmed - ECB COUNCIL VOTES TO SCRAP EU500 NOTE: HANDELSBLATT - has voted to scrap the second highest denominated European bank note in circulation:

PAR 15:10 GMT February 15, 2016
Worthless Collateral

If you have bad loans write them off or down but dont give NPL to the ECB as collateral .

PAR 14:56 GMT February 15, 2016
Worthless Collateral
Drgahi is not going to buy NPL but is going to use them as collateral . Can I also use fake diamonds or fake �500 notes as collateral ?

Banks got into trouble by using worthless collateral and Draghi is giving an extremely bad example .


PAR 14:39 GMT February 15, 2016
A lot of empty seats in the European parlement

On skiing holiday or cruising in the carribbean with pockets full of � 500 notes . Life can be beautifull .

HK RF@ 14:31 GMT February 15, 2016
A lot of empty seats in the European parlement

Extended Valentine's.

PAR 14:18 GMT February 15, 2016

Draghi becoming a stock buy side analyst .

PAR 14:11 GMT February 15, 2016

A lot of empty seats in the European parlement . Are those guys not paid enough ?

Israel Dil 14:10 GMT February 15, 2016

Buy Crude
Entry: Target: Stop:

with the new notes being plastic Draghi must know the oil is a must to produce plastic. they need loads of it

GVI Forex john bland 14:07 GMT February 15, 2016

Draghi -- ECB to renew and possibly reconsider stance in Marh

london red 14:06 GMT February 15, 2016
My Monday Trades

friday rebound was really down to oversold conditions. china data was appalling but data isnt relevant. they want to do a o/s rebound so they do it. they will run badly position usd shorts. they will then let dollar stew and allow usd longs to be set up then run these into losses later. im just not clear as to whether this round trip happens by the end of the week or they string it out for longer.

GVI Forex john bland 14:06 GMT February 15, 2016

-- EZ faces significant challenges
-- Increasing concerns about global economy
-- EZ banks have significantly increased capital

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 14:03 GMT February 15, 2016
09:01 (EU) ECB chief Draghi: Early 2016 has shown signaificant challenges with increasing concern over global economy -comments from Brussels

- ECB is ready to do its part; reiterates to reconsider monetary polict stance in March- Economic headwinds need close monitoring

- Source

HK Kwun 14:03 GMT February 15, 2016
Risk On
Sell Gold
Entry: 1213 Target: Stop: 1223

Sell again

HK RF@ 13:49 GMT February 15, 2016
My Monday Trades

To make yen to 115, must be some talks about more negative interest rates. Boosting on Tech. alone seems little hard.

london red 13:27 GMT February 15, 2016
My Monday Trades

yen has room for 11510/116 euro 11120/09 and 11045. i dont think we get there in a straight line, think they run stops on weak long usds first, maybe tomorrow. not sure they can get a weekly close abv 115/116 on yen.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:18 GMT February 15, 2016
My Monday Trades

I posted this last night on GVI Forex when EURUSD was at 1.1235 and USDJPY was 113.60. Send me an email at [email protected] to get access

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 23:14 GMT 02/14/2016 - My Profile
USDJPY targets 114.20 while ahove 113.50

EURUSD 1.12 at risk (big figure pattern) while below 1.1250-60

GVI Forex john bland 12:30 GMT February 15, 2016
My Monday Trades

DAX +276
DJ +247
SP +31

US 1.748% +1.1bp
DE 0.265% +0.3
UK 1.449% +6.5
JA 0.093% +1.0

EUR crosses mostly weaker.Higher vs JPY and CHF.

WTI $30.09 +0.65 ($30.14-28.96)

Waiting for Draghi testimony to the European Parliament starting @ 14:00 GMT

HK RF@ 12:21 GMT February 15, 2016
Gold has a potential to drop to1205 near term.
Entry: 1210+_ Target: `1205 Stop: .


GVI Forex 11:45 GMT February 15, 2016
Draghi is up next at 14:00 GMT

HK RF@ 11:43 GMT February 15, 2016
As it is.

US Stox began all this unjustified charade on one number.
All to prevent bad China collapse and prop the yen.

For this purpose gold was hacked down, oil pulled up(though no sign of any increase in demand.), usd/yen was manipulated upward by BOJ and Japan Stox ridiculously shot 7% upward.

This will not last long; Fact is that USD/YEN has hardly responded during the whole day.

All this charade, will not last long time. Stox will crash, yen will drop, gold will shoot up.

In fact gold has now a better prospect, because additional negative interest are looming for the Euro and Yen.

GVI Forex john bland 11:20 GMT February 15, 2016
Global-View Trading Technologies

GVI Forex Blog 11:12 GMT February 15, 2016
Global-View Trading Technologies

USD Pivot Points, Support and Resistance Levels. Chart Point tables.

Global-View Trading Technologies

PAR 10:29 GMT February 15, 2016
Italian Debt
Italian public debt climbs to 2.17 TN in 2015 ,132.4% of GDP

GVI Forex Blog 10:27 GMT February 15, 2016
EXCLUSIVE: China Trade Surplus Increases. Net Exports Fall

EARLIER China Trade surplus larger than expected. y/y exports fall to -11.2% y/y imports -18.8%.

EXCLUSIVE: China Trade Surplus Increases. Net Exports Fall

Hong Kong HK 10:06 GMT February 15, 2016
AceTrader Feb 15: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
Update Time: 15 Feb 2016 09:07 GMT

USD/JPY - 113.82
Although intra-day broad-based rally in Asian stocks (except China) has pushed dollar above Fri's 113.53 high (New York) to 114.10, confirming recent downtrend has indeed formed a temporary low at last Thursday's 15-month trough at 110.99, near term overbought condition would prevent strong gain above 114.21/26 and yield subsequent retreat.

Below 113.17/27 (previous res area, now sup) signals 1st leg of correction is over and brings stronger retracement to 111.59/64 later today or tomorrow.

PAR 09:43 GMT February 15, 2016

GVI Forex Blog 09:30 GMT February 15, 2016
Forex Ideas Feb 15th


Technical Trade ideas for the coming day- views of a professional trader from London based Fund

Forex Ideas Feb 15th

PAR 09:27 GMT February 15, 2016

By putting up to � 300 billion of Italian bad loans on its balance sheet the ECB is losing all credibility and should be prosecuted .

The ECB should be a rules based institution and not an insolvency lawyer .

Draghi is performing an Italian Comedia Dell Arte with European taxpayers money .

Eurogroup last years made clear rules for insolvent banks.

Jeddah Abb 09:12 GMT February 15, 2016
Entry: 1.449 Target: Stop:

will try to buy Gbpusd for test 1.463 i.. and next 1.493
stop below 1.438..

PAR 09:03 GMT February 15, 2016

If Draghi announces deeper negative interest rates and more QE European bankshares will collapse again this afternoon. The Big Short .

PAR 08:59 GMT February 15, 2016

The ECB is in talks with the Italian government about buying bundles of bad loans as part of its asset-purchase programme and accepting them as collateral from banks in return for cash, the Italian Treasury said.

Imho this is pure fraud by Draghi & co.

Israel Dil 08:53 GMT February 15, 2016
European banking/financial stocks and not only European

high five ;-)

PAR 08:44 GMT February 15, 2016
Negative interest rates are leading to deflation and economic and mental depression . In order to keep their savings intact people need to save more and spend less or spend not at all . High interest rates let people spend the interest they earned .

ECB and Draghi are voodoo economists .


Amman wfakhoury 08:20 GMT February 15, 2016
Amman wfakhoury 17:23 GMT February 8, 2016

Amman wfakhoury 06:42 GMT 02/08/2016
ZIG ZAG pattern .7070 -.7170

Return .7070 if price goes below it .
7170 reached

nw kw 06:50 GMT February 15, 2016
Breaking News: Japan GPI Back in Contraction

copper has good run can get eur strenth

dc CB 06:41 GMT February 15, 2016
Breaking News: Japan GPI Back in Contraction

So the Nikkei closes up over 1000pts---up 7.16% its biggest single-day rise since the depths of the global financial crisis in 2008

nw kw 05:29 GMT February 15, 2016
My Monday Trades

gbp/aud tempting to push it down 2.02803 I have a fib hear to // eur/gbp on support to help give the timber for the wind fall. gl.

Hong Kong HK 01:58 GMT February 15, 2016
AceTrader Feb 15: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (USD/JPY)
15 Feb 2016 01:33GMT

USD/JPY - ..... The Nikkie index gain 4.3% despite early release of downbeat Japan's GDP data. Reuters reported Japan's economy contracted an annualised 1.4 percent in the final quarter of last year as consumer spending slumped, adding to headaches for policymakers already wary of damage the financial market rout could inflict on a fragile recovery.

The data underscores the challenges premier Shinzo Abe faces in dragging the economy out of stagnation, as exports to emerging markets fail to gain enough momentum to make up for soft domestic demand.

The contraction in gross domestic product (GDP) was bigger than a median market forecast for a 1.2 percent decline and followed a revised 1.3 percent increase in the previous quarter, Cabinet Office data showed on Monday. It matched a fall marked in April-June last year.

Private consumption, which makes up 60 percent of GDP, fell 0.8 percent, more than a median market forecast for a 0.6 percent decline, a sign Abe's stimulus policies have so far failed to nudge households into boosting spending.

Belgrade TD 01:05 GMT February 15, 2016
Daily TA trade

at 4934, out last 1/3 from ~3917 long ... nasdag fut /NQ ... we'll see later what else to do ...

GVI Forex Blog 00:21 GMT February 15, 2016
Breaking News: Japan GPI Back in Contraction

4Q15 GDP turns back negative. Contraction larger than expected.

Breaking News: Japan GPI Back in Contraction

GVI Forex Blog 00:13 GMT February 15, 2016
Max McKegg\'s USDJPY Forex Forecast


After last week�s �plunge� toward the 111.00 level, the Dollar is now undergoing a �relief� rally.

Max McKegg's USDJPY Forex Forecast

GVI Forex john bland 00:12 GMT February 15, 2016
Japan 4Q15 GDP

qq: -0.40% vs. -0.30% exp. vs. +0.30% prev.

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