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Forex Forum Archive for 02/21/2016

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GVI Forex Jay Meisler 23:53 GMT February 21, 2016
Forex Trading Outlook for the Week Ahead: Will UK PM Cameron Pull a Rabbit Out of His Hat?

The new week will start out with a focus on sterling, which will be influenced by the outcome of the EU summit talks with the pre-weekend price action suggests optimism that a deal can be worked out. This suggests the surprise would be no deal. This comes in a market where 1 + 1 – 3, at least as far as USDJPY goes as the failure to regain 115 despite the mid-week gains in equities has it ending the week on a defensive note. In this regard 112 will be pivotal in keeping the recent 110.97 low intact. EURUSD, meanwhile, has been in a chop since its retreat on Monday and I outline the levels to watch on both sides in my week ahead video. 



Forex Trading Outlook for the Week Ahead: Will UK PM Cameron Pull a Rabbit Out of His Hat?

Mtl JP 22:21 GMT February 21, 2016
Brexit Referendum and its Impact on Sterling



eurgbp gap

GVI Forex john bland 22:04 GMT February 21, 2016
Brexit Referendum and its Impact on Sterling

EURGBP .7783-91

GVI Forex john bland 22:03 GMT February 21, 2016
Brexit Referendum and its Impact on Sterling

EURJPY= 125.11 +2
GBPJPY= 160.71 +52

Mtl JP 22:03 GMT February 21, 2016
Brexit Referendum and its Impact on Sterling

38 pip spread eurgbp
lol

msa nsm 21:56 GMT February 21, 2016
Brexit Referendum and its Impact on Sterling

premarket gbpy and ej??

dc CB 21:40 GMT February 21, 2016
Oil, Banks, the Dallas Fed
Reply   
zerohedge ‎@zerohedge

Rumor Houston office of Dallas Fed met with banks, told them not to force energy bankruptcies; demand asset sales instead
3:43 PM - 11 Jan 2016

Dallas Fed

‎@DallasFed

No truth to this @zerohedge story. The Dallas Fed does not issue such guidance to banks. https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/688441021986959361 …
12:07 PM - 18 Jan 2016

Well Techically It Didn't

the Fed used a neat loophole. the explicit guidance actually came from the Office of the Currency Comptroller, the regulator operating under the US Treasury umbrella

It Was True After All: The Government Is "Breathing Down The Neck Of Banks To Limit Their Energy Exposure"

dc CB 21:30 GMT February 21, 2016
Fun with Covers

I Heart QE

ZH Tweet

dc CB 21:13 GMT February 21, 2016
Brexit Referendum and its Impact on Sterling

Trump and Clinton ..Cameron EU buttering.. Oh God no!!! Oh God No.. GOD NO!!!!!

The artist taxi driver

GVI Forex john bland 21:12 GMT February 21, 2016
Brexit Referendum and its Impact on Sterling

AUDUSD .7148 +8

GVI Forex john bland 21:10 GMT February 21, 2016
Brexit Referendum and its Impact on Sterling

EURUSD 1.1121 -5

london red 21:09 GMT February 21, 2016
Brexit Referendum and its Impact on Sterling

gbp weakness vs euro and usd. so eurgbp up. eurusd likely dragged up during day then they run it down later in week maybe same day.

i like the mail headline

"Im out, Boris. LOL"

nice.

GVI Forex john bland 21:03 GMT February 21, 2016
Brexit Referendum and its Impact on Sterling

1.4264 -141

Mtl JP 20:50 GMT February 21, 2016
Brexit Referendum and its Impact on Sterling

red it is "bad news for ... gbp nearterm"
does it mean lower gbp vs the dlr and/or the euro ?
u do not mean subjectively just relatively numerically lower ya ?

tokyo ginko 20:48 GMT February 21, 2016
Brexit Referendum and its Impact on Sterling

The pound fell 1 percent to $1.4258 as of 9:11 a.m. in Auckland on Monday, the most on a closing basis since Jan. 15

london red 20:47 GMT February 21, 2016
Brexit Referendum and its Impact on Sterling

tomorrow eurgbp will drag higher the euro. but then they will sell the euro off as they realise a uk-less eu makes for a weaker eu and that will be reflected in part by the euro.
a better explaination. turnover in fx is getting lower all the time. they need high volatility to keep up profits. why just take euro down when you can take it up first then down.

dc CB 20:35 GMT February 21, 2016
Brexit Referendum and its Impact on Sterling

But will that boost the Euro....or will it all go to the USD and the Yen...dragging down the Euro across the board?

dc CB 20:32 GMT February 21, 2016
Fun with Covers

Donald Trump interviewed on the sunday talk show - This Week with George Stephanopoulos

TRUMP
But let me tell you about "The Wall Street Journal." I have no respect whatsoever for "The Wall Street Journal."

I don't even want to read it very much anymore. They're so wrong.

I don’t care what "The Wall Street Journal" says, what they say doesn’t -- and, in fact, if anything, I would do the opposite because then it'll turn out to be more correct.

london red 20:32 GMT February 21, 2016
Brexit Referendum and its Impact on Sterling

boris, the london major, backing brexit is a game changer although maybe a forced hand. cameron is stepping down at the end of this term and its either him or osbourne to take over as top man. it may be a calculated risk by sitting on the other side of the fence to osbourne. boris is known to be more for returning powers to the uk while osbourne more of a europhile. uk staying in the eu probably means osbourne taking over after some scuffling. if theres a brexit, cameron will have to fall on his sword and then the "winner" boris (vs the eu backing osbourne) will be favourite to take over as tory mp's are going to be want to be seen backing the horse that won the last race.
either way, its bad news for the stay camp and for gbp nearterm.

dc CB 20:21 GMT February 21, 2016
Fun with Covers



Rupert's other outlets look at the Nevada caucus- WSJ (link below)

and the So Carolina primary - the Faces of Fox NEWZ - (chart link)

Ace Beats Six: Hillary Clinton Wins Nevada Delegate in Card Draw Tie-Breaker

GVI Forex john bland 20:18 GMT February 21, 2016
Brexit Referendum and its Impact on Sterling

indication price, according to my bank feed
GBPUSD 1.4256 -149
nothing on EURUSD yet

dc CB 20:16 GMT February 21, 2016
Fun with Covers
Reply   
Rupert SEZ in a Special Report

Barron's Cover

tokyo ginko 20:10 GMT February 21, 2016
Brexit Referendum and its Impact on Sterling

Or gap down?

tokyo ginko 20:03 GMT February 21, 2016
Brexit Referendum and its Impact on Sterling

Early indication of a GBP gap up?

Sydney ACC 19:40 GMT February 21, 2016
Brexit Referendum and its Impact on Sterling

In a move that will electrify the referendum campaign, Mr Johnson decided to back a “Brexit” despite personal appeals from Mr Cameron to support his position.
Mr Johnson said that he had decided to act because the European "political project" was "in danger of getting out of proper democratic control".

Link

Mtl JP 18:49 GMT February 21, 2016
Brexit Referendum and its Impact on Sterling

There are bound to be some price gaps at market open

Statistic: 02/19/2016 - 02/19/2016
Results EUR/USD Close GBP/USD Close EUR/GBP Close
Average 1.1126 1.4359 0.7748
gv forex database
early indications:
http://www.global-view.com/forex-trading-tools/gviq.html
EUR / USD : 1.1127
GBP / USD : 1.4248

GVI Forex Blog 18:38 GMT February 21, 2016
GVI Data Calendar for 22 February 2016
Reply   


February 19, 2016 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for MOnday, February 22, 2016. Trading News Calendar

  • Far East: JP- flash PMI
  • Europe: EZ flash PMIs
  • North America: flash Mfg PMI
WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:

22-Mar MONDAY
All Day JP/EZ/US- flash PMIs
23-Mar TUESDAY
09:00 DE IFO Survey
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:00 US- CB Consumer Confidence
24-Mar WEDNESDAY
14:45 US- flash Service PMI
15:00 US- New Home Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude
25-Mar THURSDAY
09:30 GB- GDP
10:00 EZ- HICP
23:30 JP- CPI
26-Mar FRIDAY
13:30 US- GDP
13:30 US- PCE Deflator
15:00 US- Final University of Michigan Survey

GVI Data Calendar for 22 February 2016

Mtl JP 18:30 GMT February 21, 2016
Brexit Referendum and its Impact on Sterling

Good or Bad man Boris ?
takes away a trade opp right at market open

Boris Johnson backs LEAVE campaign
Boris Johnson has joined the campaign to leave the European Union, putting himself at loggerheads with David Cameron and George Osborne.
The Mayor of London emailed the Prime Minister yesterday to inform him of his decision but he only confirmed by text message just nine minutes before his public statement today.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12166968/eu-referendum-david-cameron-boris-johnson-live.html
-
that much for trading the news - or
maybe just as well Boris doing a favor

GOT PK 16:52 GMT February 21, 2016
Brexit Referendum and its Impact on Sterling

BBC leaks, Boris in the "leave" camp.

Mtl JP 16:38 GMT February 21, 2016
Brexit Referendum and its Impact on Sterling

nw kw 16:14 - Boris, according to link in my 15:16, will declare himself +/- right on market open at 22:00gmt. Personally I think he ll come out against .
-
Bottom Line
drop like rock
caveat applies

GVI Forex Blog 16:20 GMT February 21, 2016
PREVIEW: Monthly PMIs Due Starting Tomorrow
Reply   

Monday sees the start of the monthly PMI reports. I view them as coincident rather than a leading indicator. Note US (blue line) mfg weakness.

PREVIEW: Monthly PMIs Due Starting Tomorrow

nw kw 16:20 GMT February 21, 2016
PREVIEW: Latest Manufacturing PMIs Due

compare it usa homes is there offset? rent up again?

nw kw 16:18 GMT February 21, 2016
PREVIEW: Latest Manufacturing PMIs Due

Monday sees swiss strength building to so ill gbp/swiss

GVI Forex Blog 16:16 GMT February 21, 2016
PREVIEW: Latest Manufacturing PMIs Due
Reply   

Monday sees the start of the monthly PMI reports. I view them as coincident rather than a leading indicator. Note US (blue line) mfg weakness.
p> PREVIEW: Latest Manufacturing PMIs Due

nw kw 16:14 GMT February 21, 2016
Brexit Referendum and its Impact on Sterling

Mtl JP 15:16 GMT 02/21/2016 - long or short/// gbp set up for strength for now in past week? now what?

drop like rock or no

SaaR KaL 15:41 GMT February 21, 2016
1-2 weeks

GBPUSD 1.4448 1.4080
AUDUSD 0.7228 0.7001
EURUSD 1.1419 1.0953

for the coming week in general

SaaR KaL 15:35 GMT February 21, 2016
1-2 weeks
Reply   
AUDUSD and Cable starting to short this week

Placed these orders
Target 2 days to a week pos

Shorts
NAS100 4,170.00
GBP/JPY 162.281
EUR/JPY 125.387
USD/JPY 112.713
AUD/JPY 80.53
NZD/JPY 74.7
GBP/USD 1.4419
GBP/CHF 1.42752
USD/CHF 0.99365
AUD/USD 0.71701
Longs
EUR/CAD 1.53118
EUR/GBP 0.77198
EUR/AUD 1.55496
XAU/USD 1,223.00
XAG/USD 15.3
USD/CAD 1.376
EUR/USD 1.11
EUR/AUD 1.55392

Mtl JP 15:16 GMT February 21, 2016
Brexit Referendum and its Impact on Sterling

Time until Boris Johnson reveals whether he will 'remain' or 'leave' in the EU referendum - telegraph

and the first "fasten your seatbelt" type gbp trade opportunity
IF you are so inclined

nw kw 15:04 GMT February 21, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

Forex john : good for usd or bad or do you no more for what usd is looking for in different short or ferther out came : be grate help tks

GVI Forex john bland 14:58 GMT February 21, 2016
BREAKING NEWS
Reply   
Donald Trump Wins South Carolina Primary-- nbcnews.com

Mtl JP 14:47 GMT February 21, 2016
Brexit Referendum and its Impact on Sterling

what sort of Impact on Sterling ... fasten your seatbelt ...
haha ...

Jay u either like and thrive on volatility or you do not.
IF it is politically induced volatility u thrive IF u are In the Circle that knows the time and content of the next headline's release .


"The prospect of linking arms with Nigel Farage and George Galloway and taking a leap into the dark is the wrong step for our country and if Boris, and if others, really care about being able to get things done in our world then the EU is one of the ways in which we get them done," Cameron said.

"I would say to Boris what I say to everybody else, which is that we will be safer, we will be stronger, we will be better off inside the EU," Cameron told the BBC.
-
Is that a physical threat to Boris - wonder what Boris is being promised in private.

Amsterdam 14:37 GMT February 21, 2016
Forex Analytics and Forecasts from R.Butko, Nord
Reply   
Forex Forecast for 22-26 February 2016

First, about the forecast for the previous week:
- as for EUR/USD, 35% of the analysts and graphical analysis on H1 and H4 were correct in their forecast that the pair would fall in the last five workdays. As predicted, the pair reached the first support at 1.1150 and then tried to reach the second support at 1.1030 but halfway through it reversed and finished the week at 1.1131;
- the GBP/USD pair’s drop was greater than expected. After breaking through support at 1.4365, the pair fell to 1.4245 and entered a 1.4245-1.4395 sideways channel with a 1.4310 Pivot Point;
- after the crash that started 1 February, the experts hoped that USD/JPY would rebound at least to 115.60 but it couldn’t even reach 115.00. The pair froze at 114.87 for half an hour and moved down again, finishing the week even lower than at the beginning of the week – around 112.55;
- the forecast for USD/CHF by graphical analysis and 40% of the analysts turned out to be totally correct. The pair continued to move upward to 0.9967, took a break and went down to support at 0.9890.

Forecast for Coming Week
Summarizing the views of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:
- in the next 2-3 days, EUR/USD can rise a bit and reach resistance at 1.2222 as proposed by graphical analysis on H4 and the indicators on H1 and H4. In the longer term, the number of supporters of a downtrend grows in proportion to the time interval. Thus, in the weekly timeframe 55% of the experts vote for a fall, in the monthly timeframe it is already 65%, and in the quarterly one it’s 78%. Graphical analysis paints quite an apocalyptic picture on D1 – in the next 2-3 weeks, the pair may totally crash, hitting the bottom at 1.0500;
- as for GBP/USD, 40% of the experts and graphical analysis on H4 and D1 indicate that now the pair is at the top boundary of a 1.4200-1.4400 channel, along which it will be moving all week. This is echoed by 33% of the indicators on H4 and 75% of them on D1. At the same time, graphical analysis doesn’t rule out that end of this week or early next week, GBP/USD will break through the top boundary of the channel, turn resistance into support and continue its sideways trend in a 1.4400-1.4620 range with a 1.4500 pivot point;
- according to 60% of the experts, 100% of the indicators and graphical analysis, USD/JPY will continue to fall at least to 110.70 (the next support is at 110.00) and then bounce up first to the current level of 112.55 and afterwards higher, the target being 115.00;
- about 70% of the experts tend to believe that USD/CHF will rise first to the key level of 1.0000 and then up to 1.0200. Graphical analysis on H4 and the indicators on H4 and D1 show that before rising, the pair may spend some time in a 0.9830-0.9930 sideways trend with prevailing bearish sentiment.

Roman Butko,

GVI Forex Blog 12:04 GMT February 21, 2016
Brexit Referendum and its Impact on Sterling
Reply   

In the US, there is a tradition on February 2 called Groundhog Day. On this day, if it is sunny when a groundhog comes out of its burrow and sees its shadow, it signals six more weeks of winter. If it is cloudy and the groundhog does not see its shadow, it signals an early spring.

Well, UK PM Cameron emerged from the EU summit on Friday with concessions in hand and called for a June 23 referendum on Brexit.

Brexit Referendum and its Impact on Sterling

Hong Kong Qindex 07:35 GMT February 21, 2016
Crude Oil : Heading Towards 26.92
Reply   
Sell Crude
Entry: Target: Stop:

Crude Oil : Heading Towards 26.92


The distribution profile of the monthly cycle probability chart suggests that the market has a tendency heading towards 26.92. Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below the monthly cycle pivot center at 25.52.


Qindex.com

Crude-Oil : Monthly Cycle Charts

GVI Forex john bland 00:46 GMT February 21, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

According to A.P. Trump predicted to have won in South Carolina. Rubio and Cruz in dead heat for second. Other three candidates in single figure percentages.

 




Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

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AAEZ/CH- Holiday
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A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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