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Forex Forum Archive for 02/24/2016

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dc CB 21:28 GMT February 24, 2016
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Markets Late in NY

JPMORGAN FILES $125B MIXED SECURITIES SHELF

dc CB 21:11 GMT February 24, 2016
PPT

Yes the Boys at Liberty Street (FRBNY trading room) pay for the DeMark Signals on their BBG terminals...but they have a Blank Check to trade against them
_______________________________________________________

Tom DeMark's level for trouble today was a close below 1917... And we noted The Dow soared 350 points off the lows ZH

DeMark lines in the sand from Yesterday

london red 21:05 GMT February 24, 2016
PPT

maybe they dont "see" it yet. off top of head correlation yen/nikkei about 0.7 lately isnt it?

but s&p fine looking tail on daily. same for yen. nice double b there too. they like em when the second low is just off the first. still will have to reassess 11270/113. i wouldnt expect to see it back under 11160 tomorrow if going up and that would have to be asia or london am at latest.

dc CB 20:59 GMT February 24, 2016
PPT

all looks impressive looking Up from the bottom, but all that was accomplished was stopping the Cliff Dive, oil included.

Nikkei futures not foreseeing a Big Rally tonite

GVI Forex john bland 20:48 GMT February 24, 2016
GVI Data Calendar for 25 January 2016


February 24, 2016 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Thursday, February 25, 2016. Trading News Calendar

  • Far East: No Major Data
  • Europe: GB- GDP, EZ- HICP
  • North America: US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods, Nat Gas, 7-yr Auction

WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:

25-Feb THURSDAY
09:30 GB- GDP
10:00 EZ- HICP
23:30 JP- CPI
26-Feb FRIDAY
13:30 US- GDP
13:30 US- PCE Deflator
15:00 US- Final University of Michigan Survey

GVI Data Calendar for 25 January 2016

london red 20:43 GMT February 24, 2016
PPT

can get a nice short squeeze as long as they dont fk it up again at 1947 (cash) spoos 44. for today 39 should be all they can do no more.

GVI Forex Blog 20:43 GMT February 24, 2016
CHART POINTS: Free Forex Database
Reply   



Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format

CHART POINTS: Free Forex Database

dc CB 20:36 GMT February 24, 2016
PPT

today

Emini Hourly

dc CB 20:15 GMT February 24, 2016
PPT

The Roulette dealer must be able to multi-task. Their main job is to spin the roulette wheel, however, there is much more to it. They are also in charge of rolling the ball around the edge and paying out bets.

Who Spins the Roulette Wheel?

dc CB 20:11 GMT February 24, 2016
PPT

Red until 10:30 then Black (gree) for the rest of the day.
""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""
just wanted to comment on your letter from Ortiz. I agree 100% with all he has to say about the position of casinos and their management in regard to cheating. I really have no stake in whether he and Steve Forte believe a dealer can place a ball in a section, but I would ask these questions:

How long do you suppose it would take to learn to spin a roulette ball so that it made exactly four revolutions before dropping?

If the wheel head were spinning very slowly and you picked a number (say zero) and a fixed point (say the 12 o'clock position) and spun the ball so it made four revolutions and dropped, do you think if you picked up the ball and waited for the zero to be at 12 o'clock again and spun it four revolutions again that it might end up close to where it landed before?

Do you think you could maybe land it in half the wheel head?

If a player can clock a moving roulette ball, couldn't a dealer?

I believe that Mr. Ortiz could learn to spin a roulette ball to make four revolutions within one hour. In a few more hours I bet he could make it go five revolutions, or six or seven. If they are really interested in this, why not take an hour and give it a try?

london red 20:09 GMT February 24, 2016
PPT

if so tomo low for yen no less than 11162/75. topside test of 112.70

london red 20:06 GMT February 24, 2016
PPT

s&p. higher low for wk and so far nice looking tail on daily candle. sets up for 1947 retest tomorrow and maybe break on friday for 1972. reflation. who needs growth when youve got inflation.

dc CB 19:32 GMT February 24, 2016
PPT

another day another Perfectly Placed 10:30 AM bottom in Index Futures,, S&P, Dow, Nas 100

dc CB 19:21 GMT February 24, 2016
PPT

one thing that was noted in Demark call yesterday was that his signals, since the start of QE hadn't been working out that great.

Well guess what...

This morning's cancelled MBS POMO will take place at 2pm

zerohedge ‏@zerohedge 10m10 minutes ago

The only thing more bullish for momentum ignition than no POMO is POMO

GVI Forex Blog 19:12 GMT February 24, 2016
Global-View Trading Technologies: Stops Matter
Reply   

The earlier move higher in EURUSD was a lot stronger than many of us had thought it would be

Global-View Trading Technologies: Stops Matter

Mtl JP 18:52 GMT February 24, 2016
PPT

Bullard yaks later tonite

Mtl JP 18:50 GMT February 24, 2016
PPT

klueless kaplan
but
he wrote a bunch of books
What You Really Need to Lead: The Power of Thinking and Acting Like an Owner;
What You're Really Meant To Do: A Road Map for Reaching Your Unique Potential; and
What to Ask the Person in the Mirror: Critical Questions for Becoming a More Effective Leader and Reaching Your Potential.

http://www.dallasfed.org/news/bios/kaplan.cfm

dc CB 18:44 GMT February 24, 2016
PPT

FED'S KAPLAN SAYS MONETARY POLICY HAS BECOME MORE COMPLICATED

KAPLAN: DOES NOT BELIEVE US GOING TO HAVE RECESSION THIS YEAR

KAPLAN: EXPECTS GLOBAL DEMAND FOR OIL TO GROW IN 2016

KAPLAN SAYS HE'S WATCHING FLATTENING OF YIELD CURVE SINCE JANUARY 1

KAPLAN: WANT TO BE 'PATIENT' TO ASSESS DATA BEFORE NEXT HIKE

dc CB 17:59 GMT February 24, 2016
PPT

PAR

The Asylum

dc CB 17:48 GMT February 24, 2016
PPT

Crude? no. This is a weekly phenom API and EIA numbers "justify" a sell off but Specs kill the shorts.

This is more likely when contracts roll over and there is another full month for the Specs to play until the - sheit of get off the pot moment nears - (no I really don't want to take delivery of 100,000bls, and Cushing won't let me store it 'cuz they're full, but it was nice playing)

imho

london red 17:43 GMT February 24, 2016
GTA Trader Brexit Poll

cameron has said their will be no second vote. anyone going for a second vote says goodbye to their political career.

uk aint no denmark.

PAR 17:43 GMT February 24, 2016
BOJ
Reply   
Risk of BOJ intervention increasing exponentially .

PAR 17:40 GMT February 24, 2016
PPT

PPT buying crude ?

dc CB 17:34 GMT February 24, 2016
PPT

Yes Virginia, there is a PPT, and you thot that QE had ended.
FRBNY -- the Trading Arm of the FED. POMO by any other name remaind POMO....Permanet OMOs aka MBS-R-US

https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/ambs/index.html

http://nyapps.newyorkfed.org/markets/ambs/operations/announcements.html
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Just at the market began its torrid ramp higher today at 11:15 am on the dot, something else was expected to happen: the Fed's open market buying, or POMO, of Agency MBS (yes, those still continue despite the end of QE because the Fed has to keep the level of its balance sheet flat and offset maturities).

Only today this did not happen.

Perhaps as dealers were expecting a fixed income bid from the Fed at exactly that moment, one which didn't come, they instead had to square of unhedged delta positions by selling rates,

As Bloomberg writes, there has been no explanation what the "technical difficulties" are, however it is somewhat perplexing that just as the POMO was supposed to start, what happened instead was a surge in 10 Year yields, the USDJPY and, of course, the S&P 500 which has wiped out more than half the day's losses in minutes.

Is This Why Stocks Are Suddenly Surging: NY Fed Cancels Today's POMO Due To "Technical Difficulties"

Mtl JP 17:27 GMT February 24, 2016
GTA Trader Brexit Poll

Britain could have a second referendum if voters go for Brexit in June, European Parliament chief suggests

Hillegom Purk 17:18 GMT February 24, 2016
Trade thingy 24-02-2016

1. e/gbp stays at 7920

2. usd/jpy, closed all that i had. Trust to do this the rest of the year! Was not able to do it 20 times, only once because it shot up. Entries getting better and better.

GVI Forex Blog 17:17 GMT February 24, 2016
GVI Data Calendar for 25 January 2016
Reply   


February 24, 2016 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Thursday, February 25, 2016. Trading News Calendar

  • Far East: No Major Data
  • Europe: GB- GDP, EZ- HICP
  • North America: US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods, Nat Gas, 7-yr Auction

WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:

25-Feb THURSDAY
09:30 GB- GDP
10:00 EZ- HICP
23:30 JP- CPI
26-Feb FRIDAY
13:30 US- GDP
13:30 US- PCE Deflator
15:00 US- Final University of Michigan Survey

GVI Data Calendar for 25 January 2016

PAR 17:06 GMT February 24, 2016
PPT
Reply   
Miraculous recovery in US stocks after bad Us economic numbers.

dc CB 17:05 GMT February 24, 2016
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off at European Close

But NOW Risk-ON

PAR 17:03 GMT February 24, 2016
FRANCE
Reply   
DJ French Unemployed -0.8% In Jan To 3.55M

dc CB 16:59 GMT February 24, 2016
Taming Stox decline; Using oil+gold so simple.

Presented with little comment but one glance at this idiocy - which ignited the second European stock markets closed at 1130ET, running stops to last night's API cliff-dive and which snapped US equities higher - and you know what a farce our markets have become...

Algos Panic-Buy Crude After Europe Closes

nw kw 16:57 GMT February 24, 2016
Australia Aims to Crash the Property Market

tks ib

Hillegom Purk 16:57 GMT February 24, 2016
Gold
Reply   
Someone here on this forum made a lot of money on Gold....

HK [email protected] 16:55 GMT February 24, 2016
Taming Stox decline; Using oil+gold so simple.
Reply   
.

Hillegom Purk 16:49 GMT February 24, 2016
Trade thingy 24-02-2016

1. 3/4 out at 7904 of e/gbp, rest at 7920.

2. Scaling out of usd/jpy.

Paris ib 16:47 GMT February 24, 2016
Australia Aims to Crash the Property Market

kw - that's interesting. Something is up. When you look at the data there is concern about the health of the local banks if the property market takes a turn for the worse and there is not a lot of good news out there. The Australian economy is very vulnerable at the moment.

Politics is all over the place and there is talk of an early election...

nw kw 16:41 GMT February 24, 2016
Australia Aims to Crash the Property Market

ib- xauaud spread up 100.00 compared to xauusd = big time fear in aud and im in xauaud long big time that's reason I use audusa and its not in line with gold's spread

Mtl JP 16:37 GMT February 24, 2016
USD sell off PART II

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/feds-lacker-sees-case-for-more-interest-rate-hikes-2016-02-24?siteid=bigcharts&dist=bigcharts

Paris ib 16:35 GMT February 24, 2016
USD sell off PART II

“The yen isn’t the only currency that has appreciated,” Mr. Kuroda said, and added that the phenomenon was due to the dollar’s broad weakness. “Most of the world’s major currencies have strengthened (versus the U.S. currency).”....

WSJ... Kuroda last night

Hillegom Purk 16:31 GMT February 24, 2016
USD sell off PART II

Good IB, make money, act accordingly, sell on blips. Today perect example!

Paris ib 16:30 GMT February 24, 2016
USD sell off PART II

The biggie is the USD.... we are not going to get a decent clear out on global financial markets until the USD starts to really see some selling pressure... USD/JPY still leading and that USD selling pressure is starting to build. Risk is all to the downside IMVHO.

Hillegom Purk 16:28 GMT February 24, 2016
Trade thingy 24-02-2016

Also for the rest of the day, buy usd/jpy on dips. 5-10 pips per time. Do that 20 times and the 100-200 pips are in.

Paris ib 16:28 GMT February 24, 2016
Australia Aims to Crash the Property Market

kw.... FWIW the economy in Australia is on a holding pattern right now.... waiting for China, property, mining etc. FWIW that article suggested that property prices will start to fall in Australia by March 2016:

Macquarie Bank: "Our economics team are forecasting quarter-on-quarter house prices to fall from the March 2016 quarter before beginning to recover from June 2017, with a 7.5 per cent fall from peak to trough... easing population growth just as housing supply surged well above trend, raising the risk of “rapid adjustment”.
Credit Suisse has also warned about the deterioration in buying conditions, particularly in NSW. “Macro-prudential tightening, out-of-cycle rate hikes on investor mortgages, and weakness in Chinese buying are having a clear impact on sentiment and demand,” it said.
It came after both the ANZ and Commonwealth Bank indicated a tightening of lending to property developers due to oversupply fears as the market cools."

A softer USD will keep AUD buoyed... on the crosses (AUD/JPY EUR/AUD) more scope for selling AUD. gl gt

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 16:25 GMT February 24, 2016
GTA Trader Brexit Poll
Reply   


We are conducting our own Brexit poll to see what traders expect from the referendum.

Please participate by clicking below


GTA Trader Brexit Poll

dc CB 16:22 GMT February 24, 2016
Not the Onion
Reply   
at the Google owned robotic company.

need something larger than a .22 if one of these comes after you.

Atlas, the next generation

Hillegom Purk 16:22 GMT February 24, 2016
Trade thingy 24-02-2016
Reply   
SHORT E/GBP. 7920 first, multiple positions to scaling adding, covering, it is all there. Open till tomorrow, Stop 7979.

nw kw 16:22 GMT February 24, 2016
Australia Aims to Crash the Property Market

hkd will crash aud// aud bond cant last much longer ib if your right, just gbp pumping aud up.

Mtl JP 16:13 GMT February 24, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

red 15:45 tky

nw kw 16:07 GMT February 24, 2016
Australia Aims to Crash the Property Market

fire wall doesn't like that web page got me out.

market using mxn for EM markets. Its up, cad down, and cad food will keep oil from crashing cad. 1.35

Paris ib 15:57 GMT February 24, 2016
Australia Aims to Crash the Property Market

kw what?

london red 15:57 GMT February 24, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

yen. once they make a lower low (110.99) they are not under much pressure to force the issue. barrier at 110 and lt fib at 11033 likely to keep mkt honest. pair hasnt yet tested 11585 last yr low nor 116 shs neck. may test before attempting lower to 100.
for a risk of rebound pair would need to finish +ve on the day so no need to pick bottoms.

GVI Forex Blog 15:51 GMT February 24, 2016
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Markit Flash Services PMI Misses Big
Reply   

Markit flash Services PMI misses big.

BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Markit Flash Services PMI Misses Big

london red 15:45 GMT February 24, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

euro. if no hourly close abv 11021/22 means bull trap. stops likely abv yest high if they still manage to flip it from here.

nw kw 15:43 GMT February 24, 2016
Australia Aims to Crash the Property Market

Essentials blocked content on this website

GVI Forex Blog 15:37 GMT February 24, 2016
Breaking News U.S. New Homes Sales Weak
Reply   

New Homes Sales. much weaker than expected.

Breaking News U.S. New Homes Sales Weak

Paris ib 15:36 GMT February 24, 2016
Australia Aims to Crash the Property Market

"Five months until property bubble bursts"

FWIW

dc CB 15:35 GMT February 24, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

Cushing +333K, Exp. -100K

Final Open Interst CME April Crude for Tues 23rd
514,202 contracts

Paris ib 15:33 GMT February 24, 2016
Global-View Forex Pivot Points 200 day 1.1045 TRADE

I think shorting AUD on the straight depends on your outlook for the USD. You would only short AUD vs USD if you are a USD bull. If not, then the crosses are a much better place to be.

Mtl JP 15:31 GMT February 24, 2016
Global-View Forex Pivot Points 200 day 1.1045 TRADE

if u want to short audusd suggest 7225 sl

GVI Forex john bland 15:30 GMT February 24, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

US EIA Weekly Inventories

U.S. Data Charts






NEWS ALERT
Crude Oil: +3.500 vs. +3.170 exp vs. +2.100 prev.
Gasoline: -2.200 vs. -0.950 exp vs. +1.400 prev.
Distillates: -1.700 vs. -0.590 exp vs. +3.000 prev.
Cap/Util: 87.3% vs. 86.10% prev.




Weekly Petroleum Status

Report



TTN: Live News Special Offer

Mtl JP 15:29 GMT February 24, 2016
Global-View Forex Pivot Points 200 day 1.1045 TRADE

if u want to short auddlr suggest 7725 sl

Paris ib 15:27 GMT February 24, 2016
Oil

More one directional moves coming up...

dc CB 15:27 GMT February 24, 2016
Oil
Reply   
EIA in a few mins---trigger for Algos to run stops all over the board...too much one directional moves so far in the US session.....Let's see!

Paris ib 15:26 GMT February 24, 2016
Australia Aims to Crash the Property Market

Meanwhile no-one wants to do anything about the unfunded aged pension scheme which is where all the problems are in the first place.

Why is this? This is the template around the globe: really stupid, unfunded, unfair pension schemes and the 'solution' is always to tax the h.ll out of everything else to fund these crazy pensions... and no-one wants to reform the system.

"The Commonwealth has a big budget problem. Its deficit in 2014-15 is forecast at $40 billion.

The age pension costs $42 billion a year.... It’s growing much faster than the economy and taking an increasing share of government spending."

The Cost of Aged Pensions in Australia

nw kw 15:25 GMT February 24, 2016
Global-View Forex Pivot Points 200 day 1.1045 TRADE

jp- you have plan for 200 in aud/usa tks.

Paris ib 15:21 GMT February 24, 2016
USD/JPY: the canary in the coal mine

Not long before we get a test of 110 in USD JPY. Negative for stocks.

Mtl JP 15:21 GMT February 24, 2016
Global-View Forex Pivot Points 200 day 1.1045 TRADE

euro 200 day 1.1045

Paris ib 15:18 GMT February 24, 2016
Australia Aims to Crash the Property Market

I especially like the last chart:

Contribution to Australian GDP from various industries:
Property ownership 182
Residentialy ownership 147
Mining 140
Financial services 110
etc.

Mining has gone belly up and now the property market 'seems' shakey. They are the two big pillars of the Australian economy. Turnbull though is backing away from making the tax mix more onerous for property owners (wise move). Though all the weirdo tax reformers don't think so. The noise that suggests there is some kind of tax paradise for property in Australia is so far from the truth it's a joke.

Capital Gains tax may only come to 25 percent or so if you are a resident and hold for more than one year but there is no (yes read that right NO) indexation for inflation and no discount if you hold for 20 or 30 years or even more. So some little old lady holding property for 30 years is going to get slammed with a 25 percent tax on the nominal gain if she sells. Principal place of residence is exempted but the zealots would like to tax gains there too. Australians think the current CGT regime is a good deal. The tax debate is so without international comparisons it's crazy. Australians are taxed to death and don't even know it. But then they don't seem to know that they are drowning in debt either. Go figure.

Medium term implications for the AUD? Negative of course. But not necessarily against the USD, which has problems all of its own. gl gt

The charts

dc CB 15:12 GMT February 24, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

come on can't U see, it was the weather it was Snowzilla it was cold, so all those builders just had to dump their inventory at low low lower prices in Jan...cudn't wait a minute longer.

Mtl JP 15:06 GMT February 24, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

unit sales down
unit selling price down

dc CB 15:05 GMT February 24, 2016
US Economy

MarkIT Economics is now officially named as a "peddler of Fiction" noted WH press secy Joshing Ebens.

GVI Forex john bland 15:03 GMT February 24, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

U.S. New Home Sales January 2016



ALERT
494 vs. 520K exp. vs. 544K prev.


New Residential Sales


TTN: Live News Special Offer

PAR 15:01 GMT February 24, 2016
US Economy
Reply   
DJ US Jan New Home Sales -9.2% To 494K; Consensus 525K

Livingston nh 14:55 GMT February 24, 2016
GBP

cb - well those economists are experts I'm sure -- We could send them the whole FOMC to help them

nw kw 14:54 GMT February 24, 2016
ALERT; USDHKD Peg Warning

crash test dummy im out for now

nw kw 14:52 GMT February 24, 2016
ALERT; USDHKD Peg Warning

need some gold for bonds?

nw kw 14:49 GMT February 24, 2016
ALERT; USDHKD Peg Warning

so much for hkd/jpy, that's risk

GVI Forex john bland 14:45 GMT February 24, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

U.S. Markit flash Services PMI February 2016

U.S. Data Charts




ALERT
49.8 vs. 53.6 exp. vs. 53.2


Markit PMI Press Release


TTN: Live News Special Offer

HK [email protected] 14:44 GMT February 24, 2016
ALERT; USDHKD Peg Warning



When SNB removed the peg, the CHF appreciated.

But the financial and political situation in HKK, if the peg is removed, may cause a drop in HKD, (or the reverse?).

nw kw 14:42 GMT February 24, 2016
Trading the News - Markit Services PMI

u/j must go up test.

GVI Forex 14:39 GMT February 24, 2016
Trading the News - Markit Services PMI
Reply   
This is not a market mover as ISM PMIs are more widely watched, although market may be more sensitive to misses on the downside than upside.

GVI Forex Blog 14:28 GMT February 24, 2016
ALERT; USDHKD Peg Warning
Reply   

FXCM has sent a message to its clients that it will no longer be offering USDHKD

ALERT; USDHKD Peg Warning

dc CB 14:26 GMT February 24, 2016
GBP

A British exit from the European Union would be so devastating for the pound that 29 out of 34 economists in a Bloomberg survey see it sinking to $1.35 or below within a week of a vote to leave -- levels last seen in 1985.

Twenty-three of the economists say sterling wouldn’t recover from that rate within three months of the June 23 referendum. Seven see the U.K. currency falling below $1.20 immediately after a “Brexit” vote. And just one sees it above $1.40. That’s stronger than its low on Wednesday, when the pound fell through $1.39 for the first time since 2009.

How Low Could Pound Go in a `Brexit'? Economists See 1985 Levels

HK [email protected] 14:15 GMT February 24, 2016
AUD>0.7133
Reply   
.

SaaR KaL 14:14 GMT February 24, 2016
Oil
Reply   
Heading into 24 - 22 area...short
USDCAD easily to 1.45 +.. been long
AUDUSD to 0.67 area....short

Livingston nh 14:03 GMT February 24, 2016
GBP

Two things about GBP this AM -- first, the IN camp includes most (all?) the major financial institutions and their armies of analysts and economists -- predictably the flood of BREXIT comments are "dire consequences", "pound to parity (EUR)" and INFLATION -- this group will not provide a basis for the reasoned decision making by the voters // Now the inflation issue is intriguing because it should elicit a BoE response but the CB's have been so unified in the "WHIP DEFLATION NOW" camp that it might seem a bit hypocritical to now speak against the inflation case

The second point is that Switzerland's currency seems to do quite well surrounded by the EUR zone -- the Pound has not been absorbed into the Trade Zone scrip so there is no reason to think that a continuation of its recent range should be in jeopardy -- it is unlikely that the UK would suddenly revert to the BAD old days

london red 13:34 GMT February 24, 2016
GBP

if to go dwn again, cable has no business doing hourly close abv 13963. they will hve stops abv london am reversal spike. nxt is 14050 and 14136 but this is not to bottom pick, rather areas to fade.

GVI Forex john bland 13:31 GMT February 24, 2016
Trading the News - US Durable Goods

Calendar error Durable Goods is Thursday

Plovdiv Gotin 13:28 GMT February 24, 2016
Trading the News - US Durable Goods

Dur goods....but tomorrow

GVI Forex 12:51 GMT February 24, 2016
Trading the News - US Durable Goods
Reply   
Watch ex-transport #

Expect market to fade a reaction if # surprises to downside imho

Please add your comments and strategies.

PAR 12:50 GMT February 24, 2016
Crude Oil
Reply   
JPMorgan is adding another $500M to energy-related loan-loss reserves, following a $67M provision in the fourth quarter. In addition, the bank said it could need to add another $1.5B to reserves should oil hang around $25 per barrel over the next 18 months. For perspective, prior to Q4, JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) hadn't had to add to reserves for six years - in fact reserve releases were a big boost to profits across the industry.

PAR 12:44 GMT February 24, 2016
RISK OFF
Reply   
DJ Looks Like Folks Want to Worry Today -- Market Talk

7:30 ET - US stock-index futures' decline continues to deepen, with the drop now around 1%, as oil's Wednesday selloff also builds and major European equity markets are down some 2%. Looks like another risk-off day. Frankly, there's nothing particular to pin the action on, though oil is getting hit amid worries about further increases to US supplies that today's weekly inventory report might show. But in general, things which have been concerns continue to be concerns. Today merely appears to be a day folks don't want to ignore them. S&P 500 futures are down 17 points as Nymex oil falls some 3.5%. Gold rises 1% and the dollar is broadly higher, sending the euro down to $1.0965. Treasurys also gain, pushing the 10-year yield to 1.69%. ([email protected]; @kevinkingsbury)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

HK [email protected] 12:28 GMT February 24, 2016
Message From A Broker


Hong Kong braces for weaker growth as "political volatility" strains economy

HONG KONG - By Clare Baldwin and Donny Kwok

LINK CORRECTED

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-hongkong-budget-idUSKCN0VX0SN?feedType=RSS&feedName=worldNews

QC Mailman 12:26 GMT February 24, 2016
GBP

I guess just one comment from a UK top official that can ease uncertainty will make this one leap.

HK [email protected] 12:25 GMT February 24, 2016
Message From A Broker


........
DEFICITS AHEAD

After a stint of healthy surpluses, including HK$30 billion ($3.86 billion) for the current financial year, Tsang said he expected the city to run up deficits in its consolidated accounts for two years starting from 2018, largely due to the need to pay for healthcare reform and retirement protection.

The city's deep financial, service and trade links with China have also weighed on growth, including the retail and tourism sectors which have been hit hard by a drop in mainland tourists.

"Weak tourism was caused by the anti-corruption campaign in China and a relatively strong Hong Kong dollar compared to neighboring economies," said Iris Pang, an economist at Natixis.
......

The recent riot, slowness in rolling out major infrastructure projects such as a rail link with China and HSBC Holdings' recent shunning of the city for its headquarters, are posing a stiff test for Hong Kong's Beijing-backed leader Leung Chun-ying and have tarnished its reputation as a law-abiding and efficient global business hub.

LINK

Mtl JP 12:25 GMT February 24, 2016
GBP

I suggest Chief Economist Simon Smith salary be directly tied to performance

London Chris 12:24 GMT February 24, 2016
GBP

It all depends on the latest Brexit polls.

QC Mailman 12:21 GMT February 24, 2016
GBP

Simon Smith, a Chief Economist rather. Got his comments around 3 hours ago.

Mtl JP 12:17 GMT February 24, 2016
GBP

one Chief Strategist
when - when exactly ?
tia

Brisbane Flip 12:16 GMT February 24, 2016
GBP

You may be right but my Dailys, weeklys and monthly RSIs are not even below 30%
FWIW Sterling has been 1.40/1.70 ish for over 7 years so the risk of an resolving outsized impulsive move after all that range work is there.

Best of luck

london red 12:14 GMT February 24, 2016
GBP

cable monthly rsi currently still abv 30. back during the 2008 crisis cable was 1.78 when the rsi was close to the current 30. it bottomed a few months later at 15.75 where cable reached a closing low of 1.43. thats 35 large.

QC Mailman 12:03 GMT February 24, 2016
GBP

Wow, technicals are pointing to an anticipated bounce, way oversold, but still no relief rally whatsoever.

While uncertainty remains in the EU referendum, pair will just continue to slide.

However, as one Chief Strategist noted, the one thing we have to bear in mind is that when sentiment is overwhelmingly one-way on a currency, then the risks of a reversal will build substantially. Witness that seen on USDCAD last month.

PAR 11:38 GMT February 24, 2016
GBP
Reply   
HSBC If Brexit GBPUSD 1.10 .

PAR 11:31 GMT February 24, 2016
Crude Oil

Saudi can live with $ 20 crude oil .

PAR 11:15 GMT February 24, 2016
EURO

*DJ Weidmann: Eliminating EUR500 Note Could Damage Confidence in Currency

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 11:14 GMT February 24, 2016
Attention Fund Managers and Copy Traders

We are planning to add a directory for fund managers or those who want to be fund managers or copy traders. If you are interested in being in it, send me an EMAIL

QC Mailman 11:06 GMT February 24, 2016
GBP

Out with small profits, before the pair ran berserk again. :)

GVI Forex john bland 10:52 GMT February 24, 2016
My Wednesday Trades

Equities = Risk-Off
DAX -183
DJ -112
SP -12

US 1.695% -3.8
DE 0.132% -5.0
UK 1.340% -5.7
JP -0.043% -4.7
10-yr bonds Risk-Off. Note JGB yields back in negative territory

wti $30.84 -1.03 (31.52-30.83) API data saw a much larger than expected build late Tuesday. Looking for confirmation in EIA crude today.

EUR mixed on its crosses. Mostly lower but up vs GBP, AUD and NZD

PAR 10:46 GMT February 24, 2016
gbp

DJ HSBC's Brexit Forecast Says Sterling Could Tumble 20% to a Three Decade Low

By Mike Bird

Sterling hit a fresh seven-year low on Wednesday, but the selloff may only just be starting.

If Britain votes to leave the European Union on June 23, the pound could fall by between 15% and 20% against the dollar, according to HSBC .

The pound has already been hit hard amid concern over a U.K. departure from the EU and on Wednesday fell by more that 0.5% against the dollar, leaving the British currency below $1.40 after Monday's tumble. That takes the pound's losses for the week to over 3%.

But that's nothing, says HSBC. If the U.K. does drift towards so-called Brexit the pound could push past levels against the dollar last seen in 1985.

That's because the uncertainty that a decision to leave the EU would cause could drive investors away from U.K. assets, HSBC says. Lower demand or British investments from abroad would mean less demand for sterling, causing the pound to fall.

Other forecasters have projected a fall in the pound if the June referendum ends in a U.K. exit.

In a note earlier in February, Goldman Sachs analysts said Brexit "would increase uncertainty, weigh on the U.K. outlook and raise concerns of foreign investors." Similarly, Deutsche Bank researchers said that "a U.K. exit from the EU is likely to negatively impact sterling."

But HSBC has put a number on it, and that number is the most dramatic so far as investors contemplate the latest EU drama.

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

PAR 10:42 GMT February 24, 2016
Crude Oil
Reply   
Investors continued to unload oil on Wednesday, with losses building after Saudi Arabia dismissed the possibility of a production cut, effectively extending the time it will take for the market to be balanced again.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for delivery in April CLJ6, -2.92% traded at $30.88 a barrel, down 3%, or $1 in the Globex electronic session. April Brent crude LCOJ6, -1.77% on London’s ICE Futures exchange fell $0.74, or 2.2%, to $32.53 a barrel.

Saudi Arabia oil minister Ali al-Naimi on Tuesday said “there is no sense in wasting our time seeking production cuts,” reiterating that a production freeze would gradually allow inventories to fall.

PAR 10:39 GMT February 24, 2016
EURO

DJ ECB's Weidmann Warns of Effects of Easy Policy -- Market Talk

1026 GMT European Central Bank policymaker and Bundesbank head Jens Weidmann warns it is "dangerous to simply ignore" the side-effects of further accommodative monetary policy. He adds fears of second-round effects from low inflation are "far-fetched" and that the economic outlook for the eurozone is "not as bad as it is sometimes made out to be." However, he says protracted low inflation is undoubtedly a challenge. The comments do little to help the euro, with the ECB widely expected to announce more easing measures in March. EUR/USD trades down 0.3% at $1.0981, near an earlier 3-week low around $1.0975. ([email protected])


london red 10:14 GMT February 24, 2016
gbp
Reply   
i dont look at it but i wouldnt touch cable upside til 13808. if below 50 gets there but they may frontrun if str8 line.

hk ab 10:09 GMT February 24, 2016
gbpjpy
Reply   
Buy
Entry: Target: Stop:

anyone interested in this beast pair? Seems unbelievable dip is coming for accumulation......

Hong Kong HK 10:02 GMT February 24, 2016
AceTrader Feb 24: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
Reply   
Update Time: 24 Feb 2016 08:26 GMT

USD/JPY - 112.07
Dollar's selloff to 111.77 yesterday, then intra-day fall below this level strongly suggests the first leg of correction from February's 15-month trough at 110.99 has ended at 114.88 last Tuesday and consolidation with downside bias would be seen for weakness towards 111.30/40, however, near term loss of momentum would keep price above support at 111.10/15.

On the upside, only above 113.05 would indicate aforesaid pullback is over instead and turn outlook bullish for stronger gain towards 113.39, then 113.62.

GVI Forex john bland 09:49 GMT February 24, 2016
My Wednesday Trades
Reply   
wti $30.90 -0.97 ($31.87-$30.86)
S&P futures -10.3

london red 09:46 GMT February 24, 2016
EURO

watch 10965 and 35 a couple of fibs. below there nxt big sup at 108

GVI Forex john bland 09:44 GMT February 24, 2016
Message From A Broker

red- thanks. Logical they would not want to be exposed to client losses. If I were a broker, I would not quote any pegged currencies.

london red 09:40 GMT February 24, 2016
Message From A Broker

i dont know the broker in question but guarandamnteed its a bucket. hkd is pegged and so moves v little. the only way it is going to move is if the peg goes. despite various crises over the past couple of decades, the peg has held firm. but all spec pressure is on the hkd sell side and really you are buying a call option when going long usdhkd as its not moving under 7.75. the only way it can go if at all is up. so as a bucket that runs client possies against my own capital, its not in my interests to allow folk to long usdhkd as in the event of a peg break, i will get swissed. better to stop folk trading it and i have dispensed with that risk with no loss to bottom line as there is no profit from clients losing on usdhkd longs as it wont go under 7.75.

GVI Forex Blog 09:38 GMT February 24, 2016
Global-View Trading Technologies
Reply   

Global-View Trading Technologies

SaaR KaL 09:34 GMT February 24, 2016
If and only if
Reply   
If you you are

You should get out and reverse it

eND IF

GVI Forex john bland 09:32 GMT February 24, 2016
Message From A Broker

Can anyone explain their special causes for concern?

GVI Forex john bland 09:31 GMT February 24, 2016
Message From A Broker
Reply   
"Updates to FX Offering:

We believe there is a chance of disruption and highly illiquid conditions in the coming weeks on the USD/HKD currency pair. In an effort to mitigate customer losses *** will make the following updates to our offering:

*** will discontinue the USD/HKD offering. On February 26, 2016 all USD/HKD open positions will be liquidated and no new positions will be permitted."


GVI Forex Blog 09:23 GMT February 24, 2016
Global-View Trading Technologies
Reply   

USD Pivot Points, Support and Resistance Levels. Chart Point tables.

Global-View Trading Technologies

GVI Forex Blog 08:11 GMT February 24, 2016
Technical Forex Video Feb 24th 2016
Reply   

 

Technical Trading Video from Professional Trading Firm in the City of London

Technical Forex Video Feb 24th 2016

PAR 08:05 GMT February 24, 2016
EURO

Negative interest rates and Hollande s policies hurting French consumer sentiment.

PAR 07:33 GMT February 24, 2016
EURO
Reply   
Long EURO 1.1010


DJ Not Good Idea to Bet on Euro Weakening Due to 'Brexit' Fears -- Market Talk



0605 GMT [Dow Jones] Though it's true that the "Brexit" fears are causing euro selling, it's not a good idea to bet on the currency's rapid weakening, says Mizuho Securities economist Daisuke Karakama. He says the euro zone's current account surplus is the world's biggest and the bloc's slow inflation is setting its interest rates relatively higher on real terms. Karakama says he expects the unwinding of euro selling and dollar buying positions to kick off, assuming a China slowdown, oil price falloff and the inability of the Fed to raise rates this year. He points to the EUR/USD's upswing in March-August last year, due to unwinding of the EUR short positions after tensions over "Grexit" peaked out. ([email protected])


QC Mailman 07:12 GMT February 24, 2016
GBP

Bought sterling 1.3980's, and for our other folks, you can still join the corrective rally from today's low of 1.3965.

4-hour chart very over sold. We can be seeing the start of a strong bounce from current levels.

PAR 06:53 GMT February 24, 2016
Crude
Reply   
After technical rally due to rollover collapses again on
oversuply , weakening demand and strong dollar.

PAR 06:34 GMT February 24, 2016
GBP
Reply   
BOE creating so much confusion that GBP is becoming a banana republic currency

Hong Kong HK 04:33 GMT February 24, 2016
AceTrader Feb 24: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
Reply   
Update Time: 24 Feb 2016 03:48 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1010
Although euro is expected to gain respite in Asia following yesterday's intra-day decline from 1.1052 to 1.0990 following release of downbeat German Ifo data and initial consolidation is in store, outlook remains mildly bearish for recent decline from February's 1.1377 peak to pressure price to 1.0950/60.
However, loss of near term downward momentum should prevent steep fall and risk has increased for a much-needed minor correction to take place later today or tomorrow.

On the upside, expect 1.1052 to hold and yield one more fall, only a daily close above 1.1067/71 would signal temporary bottom is finally in place and may bring stronger retracement towards 1.1093.

HK Kwun 04:08 GMT February 24, 2016
Overbought

Sell Gold
Entry: 1230 Target: Stop: 1240

you mean 1225 is strong support? then why don't you buy at CMP?

jkt Adhi 03:53 GMT February 24, 2016
Overbought

Gold
Entry: Target: Stop:

I see 1225.30 strong for today..
I just wait n see

HK Kwun 03:42 GMT February 24, 2016
Overbought
Reply   
Sell Gold
Entry: 1230 Target: Stop: 1240

Sell now

Mtl JP 03:22 GMT February 24, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

“We will continue to closely watch the situation of the financial markets to determine whether it could have an impact on Japan’s economy and price trends, and if we judge that it will have adverse effects, we will not hesitate to consider countermeasures,” Kuroda

Mtl JP 03:20 GMT February 24, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

oh boy Stanley going full retard in Q&A
beating nubnuts kuroda
are these turkeys infecting eah other

Mtl JP 03:06 GMT February 24, 2016
GBP

1.35 deep
wish u get filthy rich JKt Adhi

JKt Adhi 03:04 GMT February 24, 2016
GBP

GBPUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:

how deep it GBPUSD..

Mtl JP 03:03 GMT February 24, 2016
StoX - DeMark

well that nutfukk Fischer basically demonstrated his and his gangs clueless-ness / wilfull or pretended no diff
I ekspet players will make the decision for the fed gang next

dc CB 02:56 GMT February 24, 2016
StoX - DeMark

That longer pink 123.6% line that all those FED Mouths have been defending --- is a 1804 ....the 123 retracement of the Oct 2007 high to the March 2009 low. So guess it's an important number to whoever decides to send out the Mouths t juice Stox.

dc CB 02:50 GMT February 24, 2016
StoX - DeMark

My charts used to be a lot less clutterd before there was so much FED Mouth interference. LOL,

but as you can see from the initial Bullard's Bottom, how much Mouth has been spent staving off a drop below 1800....it's gone on for so long that a huge vacuum has developed. DeMark points to this today.

so first stop is 1765-1770...23% down off Dudley's 1st DoRight, Aug 2015

Next is 1737-1745....23% down off the inital Bullard Bottom of Oct 2014

61.8 retrace is 1665 1670, then 1615-1620....respectively DoRight and Bullard

Emini monthly

Mtl JP 02:27 GMT February 24, 2016
StoX - DeMark



here we are 1916 ...

Mtl JP 02:24 GMT February 24, 2016
StoX - DeMark

dc CB 20:22 / I had a lose up look
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2016/02/22/20160223_demark.jpg

Mtl JP 02:01 GMT February 24, 2016
Brexit Poll

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 10:42 GMT February 20, 2016
Brexit: Reply
Assuming a June 23 #Brexit referendum, it will be 4 months of opinion poll watching with GBP reacting to the swings in sentiment
-
tight poll - fear poll - what other kind poll is there lol

GVI Forex 01:47 GMT February 24, 2016
Brexit Poll
Reply   
Latest Yougov poll - market reacting to the tight poll and not the fear poll

... The poll suggested that attempts to worry voters into staying in the EU were working and the Britons are becoming more averse to the risks of leaving, the Times reported. (thetim.es/20TT4B5)

The newspaper said that the fears have contributed to a 6-point drop, to 31 percent, among those who thought leaving the bloc would be a safer option, while 43 percent said it would be safer to stay, which was down 1 percentage point..,.

...The poll showed 38 percent of Britons would vote to leave the bloc compared with the 37 percent who want to remain, with 25 percent saying they were undecided.

Campaign for Brexit takes 6-point drop: YouGov poll for Times

Mtl JP 01:26 GMT February 24, 2016
Global-View Forex Pivot Points 200 day 1.1045 TRADE
Reply   
EURDLR 200dma // trade of and for the year
(1.1015-ish)
-------------
Keeping it real simple:
- keep selling pops towards 200dma allow for 25 pip overshoot
- step up adding short on break down of 1.0980 if/when seen
- target 500 pips first t/p ; 1000 pips ultimate t/p
--------
This is an alternative suggestion to trying to trade data releases or be enthralled to stupid headlines from various CB nub-nuts;

Mtl JP 00:25 GMT February 24, 2016
GBP

robot Jay trading robot knows

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 00:23 GMT February 24, 2016
GBP

More like a blink of the eye

1.4000 => 1.3983 => 1.4005

Mtl JP 00:19 GMT February 24, 2016
GBP

kool
baam Sup 3 1.3999 done and bit
http://www.global-view.com/forex-trading-tools/chartpts.html

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 00:04 GMT February 24, 2016
Attention Fund Managers and Copy Traders
Reply   

We are planning to add a directory for fund managers and copy traders. If you are interested in being in it, send me an EMAIL

 




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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
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