Livingston nh 23:32 GMT February 25, 2016
USD/JPY
The fundamentals are well beyond the carry trade effect -- there is no investment return in Japan - and there is a LOT of savings so money will pour out looking for a HOME
Look at the major companies in Japan - SONY makes a good TV but prices it 15% to 20% above LG or Samsung (see KRW/JPY) - Toshiba ? Toyota ? CHINA, the country's biggest customer is its biggest competitor
The solution is simple but unconventional and Japan is too conventional, too much the follower than the innovator
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 23:18 GMT February 25, 2016
USD/JPY
Using a one hour chart 113.36 is key resistance.
HK [email protected] 22:52 GMT February 25, 2016
USD/JPY
112.95, is no magic number, but on the longer term chart(my computation), began recently to form a SUP/RES area, which may now express itself in price action.
So spending long time about this level is not a surprise.
As said below; "even a dead cat has legs"; A failure to break significantly upward this price area will mean, that price eventually may drop back to 100 on longer term.
Double bottom and end of the fiscal year etc. is the talk of the day, so all can happen.
5-WKLY-SMA, threatens to cross the 100-WKLY-SMA downward(rare event), and so the 50 threaten to cross the 65, so much effort should be done by the BOJ to fend off a serious appreciation of the yen.
So no wonder why USD/YEN Bears keep on fighting this level the BOJ.
dc CB 21:15 GMT February 25, 2016
STOX
the 10Y has nothing to fear as long as every country in Europe is offering Neg Int Rates.
even 1.2% is better than -0.5%...
Livingston nh 21:11 GMT February 25, 2016
STOX
The Fed has NO credibility left with "data dependent" mantra -just because it is amorphous -- Fed funds can influence 2 yr yields but inflation expectations affect the 10 yr -- the Fed gov't has a lot of inflation costs besides simple auction rates and expectations take that into account
MLSO - Fed should be shrinking balance sheet at these levels by feeding treasurys (aka MONEY) back into market to meet demand -- if the market runs away from them it will be in the 10 yr
dc CB 21:09 GMT February 25, 2016
STOX
Northy @NorthmanTrader 8m8 minutes ago
Bullard 2 DeMark 0
GVI Forex john bland 21:00 GMT February 25, 2016
STOX
It looks to me like they have been running weak USD longs for the past two days.
dc CB 20:59 GMT February 25, 2016
STOX
Paying attention to the Inflation Number??? they make up that number up...
Oh We care about Inflation is the Biggest RED Herring that's Ever been dragged under the nose of ...
We'll feed you that line as long as we see you nodding your head in agreement...yes that's important, yes if you say so, yes.
once U stop we'll come out with another "parameter' and repeat that as long as U nod yes.
We (FRBs) just want the market to Go Up a bit more to achieve our Goal....that is not have the thing crash around out heads.
As seen
london red 20:55 GMT February 25, 2016
STOX
nh i would use a weak pce to run stops on weak longs. mkt going up tomo if todays close is a goodun.
PAR 20:47 GMT February 25, 2016
Venezuela
Reply
What you say depends on where you sit. Sell crude .
Livingston nh 20:47 GMT February 25, 2016
STOX
cb - depending on the Fed's FAVE for inflation somebody is going to be wrongfooted tomorrow -- I don't think there is a Goldilocks number for inflation // It is rare as a Unicorn for PCE to be above CPI but sometimes .........
london red 20:46 GMT February 25, 2016
USD/JPY
real squeeze on yen can come if they dont do a monthly close below 116 shs neck. mkt is massively long yen historically and that will see equally huge yen long liquidation if feb ends c 116. long way to go in not much time, but has been done many times before.
s&p now abv 47. close abv tgts 72/75 low tomo should be abv todays low. so buy pullback to 30/mid 30's if seen as surely they will shake before they run.
dc CB 20:42 GMT February 25, 2016
STOX
well you know Bullard basically just said 2000 SPX and we're good. So just be thankfull that they're actually coming out and saying...yeh this is the price...we'll get it there...just BTFD, like we've been telling U for years. Just trade the range BOYS
Livingston nh 20:37 GMT February 25, 2016
STOX
Reply
all the recent SPX down gaps have been filled - so now we look to the early January period that has multiple gaps -- if we fill them in the next two weeks even Yellen & Co. will have a hard time talking about market disruption
BUT Fear Trade still buying Treasurys -- 8:30 AM NYT will tell the tale
Livingston nh 20:32 GMT February 25, 2016
USD/JPY
Always tricky to distinguish between dead cat bounce and basing pattern -- looks like a double bottom on USD/JPY this might have legs above 115 (but even a dead cat has legs)
dc CB 20:26 GMT February 25, 2016
JPM
We're doing this to save your pension, guys..don't U get it.
EFT of REITS...shopping centers... YIELD
dc CB 20:19 GMT February 25, 2016
JPM
1955-1960.
then the low 70's, IF it dosen't fall back to the low 1920s and below trading range
IF---then may have to wait for the to/fro of next weeks NFP
Emini hourly
london red 20:09 GMT February 25, 2016
JPM
jamie bottom is the new bullard bottom
dc CB 20:07 GMT February 25, 2016
AAPL
the only reason it's up slightly is beacuse of the press ---Tim Cook, our Secure Savior
APPLE SAYS U.S. CAN’T FORCE IT TO UNLOCK TERRORIST’S IPHONE
PAR 19:57 GMT February 25, 2016
AAPL
Reply
AAPL moving higher because crude is moving up . Is everybody wacko ?
PAR 19:47 GMT February 25, 2016
JPM
Reply
JPM estimates 32 % probability of US Recession.
Why is Jamie buying shares ?
nw kw 19:37 GMT February 25, 2016
eur/cad ranges
swap interesting, eur might be tossed in with gbp
nw kw 19:26 GMT February 25, 2016
My Thursday Trades
yak long EM markets are cheap long term.
Hillegom Purk 19:22 GMT February 25, 2016
My Thursday Trades
My Thursday Trades
Hillegom Purk 16:15 GMT 02/25/2016 - My Profile
Right, rest of the day eur/gbp SHORTS. Profit, under 79.
______________________________________________
Closed under 79. Positions where not that big, pips are pips. Now 0,70-0,79 done. Range yearly around 1000. So plenty of nice pips down...
But anything is possible... :)
london red 19:19 GMT February 25, 2016
BREAKING NEWS
if they pull off third one, now that will be really impressive. s&p just a couple off 47. if they reverse thats where they do it otherwise road clear for feel good weekend, everything rosy and 1972/75 yen 115 and euro under 110 but abv 109 cos they have to run eurjpy up too.
if 11308/10 seen on yen watch for hourly reversal bulls dont want to see hourly close below 11295 (or on the dot). otherwise will be clear skies.
Hillegom Purk 19:17 GMT February 25, 2016
eur/cad ranges
Reply
Right, i am stopping with e/c shorts and looking for long opps for the rest of the year. I remember not long ago that e/c was going to the moon. Nothing goes in one straight line. Overshoot is all there is.
We got 140 in november rain 2015 and 161+ in 2016 january.
Normal yearly range is 1500-2000+.
Range 2016 already 1100ish.
Again another great pair!
HK [email protected] 19:09 GMT February 25, 2016
USD/JPY
FW CS
Didn't look at GBP/USD. Seems too complicated.
The close of USD/JPY should be watched for further direction.
A close at about 112.70 or below may put a question on the USD/JPY rally.
FW CS 19:02 GMT February 25, 2016
USD/JPY
RF
You have an opinion on gbp $?
london red 18:56 GMT February 25, 2016
USD/JPY
11295 tenkan big upside if taken. s&p 47 ditto
HK [email protected] 18:47 GMT February 25, 2016
USD/JPY
Reply
Buy USDJPY
Entry: NOW Target: 113.40 Stop: 112.70
.
dc CB 18:46 GMT February 25, 2016
BREAKING NEWS
NEW CLOSING DATE AND TIMES FOR TODAY'S 7-YEAR NOTE AUCTION
The noncompetitive and competitive portion of the 7-year note auction originally scheduled to close today will now close Friday, February 26, 2016, at 11:00 a.m. and 11:30 a.m. ET, respectively. The close of the auction has been rescheduled due to a technical issue. The settlement date and all other aspects of the auction remain unchanged from the original announcement. Competitive and noncompetitive bids that have been submitted will still stand, but bidders may review and update bids until the auction closes.
london red 18:45 GMT February 25, 2016
CAD
cad fibs 13540 13463/70 stops under 134
nw kw 18:42 GMT February 25, 2016
CAD
last support eur/cad ?
nw kw 18:40 GMT February 25, 2016
CAD
oil?
Israel Dil 18:17 GMT February 25, 2016
CAD
Reply
just covered some CAD longs
Livingston nh 17:07 GMT February 25, 2016
Buying Stox is the most stupid things one can do.
Stox are more predictable than the "johnny one note" correlation du jour -- oil and gold (or widgets) are one dimensional "investments" subject to external shocks and simple supply and demand -- the JPY correlation is a function of the EZ money regimes of the past 7 yrs in a race to the bottom so yen got there first but now everybody else has crowded in
Stox are a barometer of the broader economic condition
london red 16:55 GMT February 25, 2016
My Thursday Trades
cutting euro long here. still fancy squeeze but late to party as away frm desk today (entry by 20 not giving much free rope). will fade move higher 75/89 stop over 11111 i expect
london red 16:23 GMT February 25, 2016
My Thursday Trades
once euro topside busted (north of 200dma to upper 110), long usd 11220/40 stops under 112 should be safe but keep in mind 11162/75 should be max daily low today worst case scenario if still to go up.
Hillegom Purk 16:16 GMT February 25, 2016
My Thursday Trades
If e/u continues to rise, easy on the positions one needs good entries...
Hillegom Purk 16:16 GMT February 25, 2016
My Thursday Trades
If e/u continues to rise, easy on the positions one needs good entries...
Hillegom Purk 16:15 GMT February 25, 2016
My Thursday Trades
Right, rest of the day eur/gbp SHORTS. Profit, under 79.
london red 16:10 GMT February 25, 2016
My Thursday Trades
not out of woods yet, some backfill early in new hour can still squeeze stops topside. dwn pivot 21/22. draw a line thru this week 1h chart 21/22
NY JM 16:01 GMT February 25, 2016
My Thursday Trades
1.1039 = current 100 hour mva, so far capping upside and protecting key 1.1045 level.
Livingston nh 16:00 GMT February 25, 2016
My Thursday Trades
For some reason the FEAR trade is alive and well in Treasurys -- G20? should be a nothing BUT ... // Big number tomorrow is the PCE -- FEAR trade saying Deflation still keeps Fed on hold?
london red 15:19 GMT February 25, 2016
My Thursday Trades
we almost touched a channel line from 105 yest so maybe scope for a bounce but i see 11075/89/11100 at best JP. ecb approaching they will likely run it down into event and maybe a bit higher after, so dont think anyone will chase it higher bar a small squeeze to take stops. dont think there is time to do 112/113 and back down unless it an intrday panic one off event. in any case shorts are much smaller than before so buyers will be doing the work this time, less stops to run.
nw kw 15:18 GMT February 25, 2016
My Thursday Trades
Today's OIL story, jp in dark, usa east in cold storm, ho support oil again.
Mtl JP 15:14 GMT February 25, 2016
My Thursday Trades
red euro upside is probably limited
do u see 1.12_ish ?
dc CB 15:13 GMT February 25, 2016
My Thursday Trades
SToX:
yes today cud be more portfolio adjustments to the downside, then Fri begins end of month window dressing.
However there's the political caveat to this months turn-over.
Sat is So.Carolina Democratic primary --Clinton v Sanders.
And the Biggie is Tues Mar 1 - super Tuesday, 16 states both parties
london red 15:05 GMT February 25, 2016
My Thursday Trades
i see no reason for it but there will be a fair few stops abv 200dma euro. if going to run it dwn friday maybe, then they may choose to run stops for a 11070/89 fade maybe then back under 200dma with a 10980/50 test friday. no real reason to take euro up but stops are there for taking and shorts taken this weak must be starting to get stale with no downside progress yet.
london red 14:57 GMT February 25, 2016
My Thursday Trades
if friday id say 100% we get test of 47 (44/45 spoos) and acts as massive pivot so 72/75 on day or 17/22 on downside. but its thursday so they may pull a false break and save powder for friday. that said yen testing daily tenkan at 112.95 a couple of times today if that bitch blows they could do 115/116 by friday close as not been abv since c. 120.
dc CB 14:49 GMT February 25, 2016
My Thursday Trades
will a ramp later this morning bust thru 1940-45. Pretty wide range - 50pts for the S&P in 10 hour period, yesterday.
2nd day for the DeMark prediction
Emini hourly
Mtl JP 14:36 GMT February 25, 2016
My Thursday Trades
Pivot 1.1004
Sup 1 1.0962
Sup 2 1.0916
Sup 3 1.0874
http://www.global-view.com/forex-trading-tools/chartpts.html
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 14:31 GMT February 25, 2016
My Thursday Trades
EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:
EURUSD 1.1001
I have been using the one hour line chart and first red line is 1.1045 and second line is around 1.1065. The green line is the 100 hour mva, which was briefly traded above on a 1 hour chart but without a confirming hourly close. So bias is still negative unless these levels are taken out.
1.1044 is also the 200 day mva and 1.1052 was the high a few days ago.
On the downside, yesterday's 1.0956 low is key support in what has been a 45 pip symmetric range around 1.10.
dc CB 13:56 GMT February 25, 2016
My Thursday Trades
Bullard Says 'Brexit' Vote Not an Immediate Risk Event for U.S.
"I don't think it is a risk event for the U.S.," because even if British voters decide to quit the EU there will be years for markets and investors to adjust," Bullard said.
dc CB 13:44 GMT February 25, 2016
My Thursday Trades
Bullard Says Stock Mkt Closer to ‘Fair Value’ After Correction.
_________________________________________________
James Bullard, CFP sez.
the 7th Mandate of the FMOC is that of a CFP.
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:23 GMT February 25, 2016
Trading the News - US weekly jobless claims, durable goods
08:15 (US) Preview: Jan Preliminary Durable Goods Orders data expected at 08:30 ET (13:30 GMT)
**Consensus expectations:
- Durable Goods Orders: +2.9%e v -5.0% prior- Durables Ex Transportation: +0.3% e v -1.0% prior
- Capital Goods Orders (Non-defense/ex-aircraft): +1.0%e v -4.3% prior
- Capital Goods Shipments (Non-defense/ex-aircraft): -0.5%e v +0.2% prior
- Ex-Defense: No est v -2.9% prior
- Source TradeTheNews.com
GVI Forex john bland 12:52 GMT February 25, 2016
Liquidity, Kill Switches Are the Talk of the Currency Universe
I feel it behooves all of us to read this article to understand the kind of risks we all face and adjust our risk exposures accordingly.
A link to this article (and others) will remain on the rightsidebar of many of the pages on Global-view for a couple of days after it scrolls off the forum
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 12:40 GMT February 25, 2016
Trading the News - US weekly jobless claims, durable goods
Reply
This is a new feature and it will only work if you add your views.
I don't know why the market pays attention to durable goods as they are subject to wide revisions that are usually ignored by the time they come out.
As we saw yesterday, the news junkie market reacts to economic news so with the mood tilted risk on, it may be more sensitive to better data although a negative surprise would see a reaction as well.
Please post your comments, views or strategies for the data releases.
Mtl JP 12:31 GMT February 25, 2016
My Thursday Trades
1.1044 is from
http://www.global-view.com/forex-trading-tools/chartpts.html
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 12:29 GMT February 25, 2016
My Thursday Trades
The issue with daily mvas is that those who use MT4 and any other data feed that adds an extra day each week will have a different #.
GVI Forex Blog 12:12 GMT February 25, 2016
Brexit Poll: What Do Traders Expect?
Reply
GBPUSD, which closed last week on a firm in what turned out to be a relief rally, sharply reversed direction this week as the forex market turned defensive. The catalyst was said to be London Mayor Boris Johnson joining the Brexit camp and a poll showing a near dead heat with 25% undecided. GBPUSD hit a 7 year low on Wednesday at 1.3878 before staging a modest recovery.
What I found curious is that UK stocks have not shown the same sense of concern.
Brexit Poll: What Do Traders Expect?
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 12:00 GMT February 25, 2016
My Thursday Trades
This is not a USD market but JPY cross market that has carried over from yesterday's U-turn in the Japanese currency.
GVI Forex john bland 10:16 GMT February 25, 2016
My Thursday Trades
Reply
Equities mixed risk
DAX +48
DJ -45
SP -7
10-yr mixed, note JGB yields more negative
US 1.716% -3.5
DE 0.148% -1.5
UK 1.37% +4.1
JA -0.055% -0.8
wtI $31.77 -0.38 ($32.27-31.45)
EUR mostly mixed on its crosses
Hong Kong HK 10:09 GMT February 25, 2016
AceTrader Feb 25: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
Reply
Update Time: 25 Feb 2016 09:37 GMT
USD/JPY - 112.17
Despite the greenback's selloff to a fresh 2-week trough at 111.04, subsequent strong rebound suggests further choppy trading above February's low at 110.99 would continue with upside bias and gain towards 112.63 is likely to be seen. However, as broad outlook remains consolidative, reckon resistance at 113.05 should remain intact and bring another fall later today or early tomorrow.
On the downside, only below 111.04 would revive bearishness for a re-test of 110.99, break would confirm recent downtrend has resumed and yield further weakness towards 110.40/50.
GVI Forex john bland 10:02 GMT February 25, 2016
BREAKING NEWS
Final EZ HICP (CPI) January 2015
ALERT
yy: +0.30%vs. +0.40% exp. vs. +0.20% prev.
HICP core
yy: +1.0% vs. +1.00% exp. vs. +0.90% prev.
TTN: Live News Special Offer
GVI Forex john bland 10:01 GMT February 25, 2016
BREAKING NEWS
Final EZ HICP (CPI) January 2015
ALERT
yy: +0.30%vs. +0.40% exp. vs. +0.20% prev.
HICP core
yy: +1.0% vs. +1.00% exp. vs. +0.90% prev.
TTN: Live News Special Offer
GVI Forex john bland 09:32 GMT February 25, 2016
BREAKING NEWS
data unrevised
GVI Forex 09:21 GMT February 25, 2016
Trading the News - UK GDP Revision
Reply
Should not be a market mover but market likely more sensitive for a downward miss. I saw one bank forecast calling for a 0.1% down revision.
Mtl JP 08:00 GMT February 25, 2016
USDJPY
apparently according to BOJ’s Kuroda - QQE with negative interest rates are having intended effects on economy
haifa ac 07:51 GMT February 25, 2016
USDJPY
2583 is 50% retracement
So we are very close to an important buying opportunity.
Mtl JP 07:25 GMT February 25, 2016
USDJPY
Shanghai Composite closes down 6.4% to 2,741.25
Mtl JP 07:24 GMT February 25, 2016
USDJPY
SF WM 02:48 / why - just because Nikkei krapped under 16 000?
It may need to slam deep to wake up numbnuts Kuroda
hk ab 07:20 GMT February 25, 2016
jpy
Reply
anyone wants to blame the yen strength is due to "repatriation"?....
JIMVHO, I don't think they have much to repatriate........
London Chip 06:51 GMT February 25, 2016
aussie
Reply
guessing aussie heading north ... first stop 7225 ...
Hong Kong HK 06:20 GMT February 25, 2016
AceTrader Feb 25: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
Reply
Update Time: 25 Feb 2016 05:00 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1027
Although yesterday's rally from a fresh 3-week bottom of 1.0957 to as high as 1.1046 in New York session confirms euro's recent decline from February's 1.1377 peak has finally made a temporary low and 1-2 days of choppy consolidation is in store, as long as 1.1067/71 (previous ups, now res) holds, downside bias remains.
Below 1.0957 needed to extend marginal weakness, loss of momentum should keep price well above minor chart at 1.0904.
A firm rise above 1.1071 would signal long-awaited correction of aforesaid decline has taken place and risk stronger retracement towards 1.1138/39 before prospect of retreat next week.
hk ab 04:14 GMT February 25, 2016
e/j
Reply
wow, finally it wants to bottom......
added some longs 123 handle and avg now 123.8.
very interesting movement last night.
SF WM 02:48 GMT February 25, 2016
USDJPY
Reply
Has USDJPY formed a bottom?
HK [email protected] 01:03 GMT February 25, 2016
PPT
did the price of iron ore tank ?
No:Data released not happy.
Sydney ACC 00:58 GMT February 25, 2016
PPT
fourth-quarter business investment (capex) grew 0.8 per cent, which is better than the expected 3 per cent drop.
It's also a remarkable rebound from the previous quarter's 8.4 per cent drop in capex.
But the first estimate for investment in the next financial year came in at just $82 billion, or about $10 billion below economist expectations. That's quite a miss.
It's also roughly 20 per cent lower than the first estimate for 2015-16 spending, made a year ago, showing just how much the drop in mining investment is hurting.
Mtl JP 00:51 GMT February 25, 2016
PPT
hmm audusd sub 72
did the price of iron ore tank ?
dc CB 00:15 GMT February 25, 2016
PPT
*BULLARD SAYS FED HAD GOOD REASONS TO HIKE IN DECEMBER AND DOES NOT CONSIDER THE MOVE A MISTAKE
Then there was the topic of bubbles, which was mentioned on at least 8 separate occasions in his presentation. His point here was simple: at 2100, the S&P is too high and so the Fed was justified to hike; at 1900 the S&P is too low and the bubbles have popped. It appears that for the Fed, the Fed balance sheet implied fair value of 2,000 for the S&P is the perfect sweet spot of "fair value". ZH
*BULLARD: DON'T THINK GLOBAL MKT SELL-OFF PREDICTING RECESSION
*BULLARD: PLENTY OF CAPACITY TO EASE IF NEED TO
*BULLARD: MOST NATURAL OPTION IF NEED WOULD BE FURTHER Q.E.
And there it is: the first admission that the Fed is not only contemplating NIRP - in the middle of a rate-hike cycle no less - but also QE.
What should be most troubling for the Fed is that while any other time a Fed hint of more QE would have sent futures soaring, that this time nothing is happening as a result of the "second Bullard moment" is the most disturbing sign that not only can the Fed can no longer jawbone the market higher, even with the most nonsensical statements and hidden promises, but that the Fed is on the verge of losing control of the market. ZH
Bullard Admits It's "Unwise" To Continue Rate Hikes, Says "If Needed" Will Do More QE
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