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Forex Forum Archive for 02/28/2016

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GVI Forex Blog 23:51 GMT February 28, 2016
Can U.S. Stocks Ignore a Stronger Dollar?

I get a lot of information and promotional emails, many I ignore but one highlighting a video/article�by Saxo's chief economist Steen Jakobsen caught my attention.It was entitled, �I�m shorting everything� going into nasty March.

Can U.S. Stocks Ignore a Stronger Dollar?

Miami JN 23:39 GMT February 28, 2016
Monday Trading

What's going on in USDJPY????? Risk off????

Mtl JP 22:30 GMT February 28, 2016
nh / here is bill g about your fetish:

Bill Gates cautions on unicorn valuations over short term

Mtl JP 22:22 GMT February 28, 2016

and the aud trade point is ____

Sydney ACC 22:14 GMT February 28, 2016

Iron ore lost 0.4% to close at USD 49.00 a tonne in the most recent session.

Mtl JP 21:34 GMT February 28, 2016

�If we look at Europe at the moment, the danger we face is without any doubt deflation not inflation,� Villeroy de Galhau
This guy does not even have a PhD - only a french baccalaureate degree at the Lyc�e Saint-Louis-de-Gonzague, and his engineering degree at the �cole Polytechnique, he studied at the ENA (�cole nationale d'administration) until 1984.

I wonder what motivates him to regurgitate the current old censored line that lower prices are somehow dangerous.

nw kw 21:34 GMT February 28, 2016

audjpy driving buss 81 hiss to hold.long.

London Chip 21:32 GMT February 28, 2016

nw kw 21:31 GMT February 28, 2016

gbp/aud 4h open can pump aud up for eur/gbp

nw kw 21:24 GMT February 28, 2016

timing hy

nw kw 21:22 GMT February 28, 2016

xauaud 4h using 100mav. indicating aud neat move is looking for new range, up or down looks poss with eur day?

Livingston nh 21:13 GMT February 28, 2016
Brexit Poll: What Do Traders Expect?

JP - the elites will stick together across borders - and march to the gallows one by one

Mtl JP 21:07 GMT February 28, 2016
Brexit Poll: What Do Traders Expect?

heavy heavy words
"Our view is that it's in the national security and economic security of the United Kingdom, of Europe and of the United States for the United Kingdom to stay in the European Union," U.S. Treasury Secretary Jack Lew
Does that mean anyone in favor of BREXIT is at risk to their limb / life - be labeled a terrorist ?

GVI Forex john bland 20:56 GMT February 28, 2016
Monday Trading
USDJPY 113.89
EURUSD 1.0919
GBPUSD 1.3862

London Chip 20:04 GMT February 28, 2016
SYD ..any views on the aud/usd ... still have ,75 in mind but its looking very ominous

Sydney ACC 19:53 GMT February 28, 2016
US shale frackers eye world conquest despite bloodbath
Dozens of indebted US shale companies face annihilation over coming months as their hedge protection runs out and creditors pull the plug, but veteran frackers insist defiantly that the slump will not stop the industry's march to world conquest.

"What is happening scares the heck out of you. We're going to see a decimation for the industry, with bodies and corpses all over the place," said Mark Papa, the former head of EOG Resources.

"Lower for longer, is starting to feel like the Great Depression. You run for cash. You ride out the storm."
John Hess, founder of the Hess Corporation
"It is probably a three-year process and we're in the middle of it. The impact on investment has been devastating," he told the IHS CERAWeek summit of energy leaders in Houston.

"Our activity is at a bare minimum, and we're just preserving our operational capability. We had 17 rigs two years ago, eight last year, and now we're running two. Very few things make sense at $30. It�s better to leave the oil in the ground,� he said.

Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count down to 400 from 413 last week and 675 in August 2015.


Mtl JP 19:52 GMT February 28, 2016
Expectations For Shanghai G20 Low

john dissing your "time" solution is Chinese commie fin min Lou Jiwei : "Whether the world could deliver strong, exclusive and sustainable growth really depends on the pace of structural reform"

Mtl JP 19:41 GMT February 28, 2016
Expectations For Shanghai G20 Low

I love the threads headline : Expectations For Shanghai G20 Low

"We will not resort to competitive depreciation to boost our advantage in exports," - Zhou Xiaochuan

Zhou is the governor of the People's Bank of China.

Mtl JP 19:30 GMT February 28, 2016
G20 Class Pictures

CB 19:18 read last line in JP 18:59 ?
to quote nh - ignorance is remedied by knowledge, crazy is remedied by meds, ah but STUPID is forever, dangerous to be around and, unlike wine and cheese, does not improve with AGE
Keep buying Visa / M-card - good brands enjoying high barriers to entry prtection from newcommers

dc CB 19:18 GMT February 28, 2016
G20 Class Pictures

not whining. These practices were "supposed" to have been eliminated, made verboten, Illegal, by the likes of the Consumer Protection Agency... the big fight over the creation of said Agency that catapulted Eliz Warren into a chair on the Senate, after she was blocked at becoming the Head of that Agency....

This is all 2008 -2010 Dodd Frank, make to rules to rein in these banking practices that hurt(steal) from the consumer, with hidden-undisclosed fees. Opt IN/ Opt OUT was a centerpiece.

Mtl JP 18:59 GMT February 28, 2016
G20 Class Pictures

dc CB 17:41 / I recently received a new replacement ATM card.
Reading the fine print I read that it is now an ATM and a Debit card.
That is a mean major difference. Along with the Debit feature comes a "benefit" - an automatic $100 overdraft protection. Peddled as if to make e feel "as a somebody" (credit to marketing dept). At an interest and fees cost, naturally. I called to inquire about the "mistake" but was told it is the only version of an ATM card now. That they have my convenience at heart - why should I be deprived of a purchase should my account be 1 or 5 dollars short to make a purchase and be (embarrassingly?) declined ?! What a stroke of genius - for the bank(s) to juice fees and interest wont you agree ?

All the more reason to BoD Visa / M-card etc. instead of whine whine.

dc CB 18:31 GMT February 28, 2016

"Lets enjoy the Oscars."

The Big Controversy here is that its a White Oscars. LOL
Hillary's Big Win in South Carolina was do to the Black Vote....(who all got a sticker upon exiting the polls --- I VOTED.

We reviewed 503 of the most powerful people in American culture, government, education and business, and found that just 44 are minorities. NYTimes Info Graphic ...looking at the Faces of Power

The Faces of American Power, Nearly as White as the Oscar Nominees

Amsterdam 18:21 GMT February 28, 2016
Forex Analytics and Forecasts from R.Butko,
Forex Forecast for 29 February - 4 March 2016

First, a review of last week�s forecast:
- the vast majority of the analysts and graphical analysis on D1 predicted a fall for EUR/USD, which happened, and the pair shed more than 200 points during the week;
- the prediction of 40% of the experts and graphical analysis that GBP/USD should bounce down from resistance at 1.4400 proved right. However, under the influence of the news about the UK�s EU membership referendum, instead of entering a sideways trend, the pair easily broke support at 1.4200 and crashed, finishing the week around the lows of 2001 and 2009;
- the forecast for USD/JPY panned out almost 100%. According to it, the pair was supposed to go down to support at 110.70, then shoot up to 112.55 and then even higher, ultimately targeting 115.00. In reality, the pair fell to 111.04, reversed upward, tested resistance at 112.55, broke through it on the second try, turning it into support, and soared up to 114.00;
- graphical analysis on H4 and the indicators on H4 and D1 were right about USD/CHF moving in a sideways channel for some time. At the same time, in line with the general trend to regain its position above 1.0000, the pair made several attempts to break through the top boundary of the channel, and it was able to consolidate just above 0.9960 by Friday evening.

Forecast for Coming Week
Generalizing the opinions of several dozen analysts from leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on various methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be said:
- the forecast for EUR/USD for March remains unchanged � first, the pair should break through support at 1.0800 and then at 1.0700, reach the bottom around 1.0500 and try to recover losses by returning to the current level of 1.0930. This scenario is supported by 54% of the experts, 90% of the indicators and graphical analysis on D1. As for the coming week, 70% of the analysts expect the pair to bounce up and temporarily return to 1.1066-1.1150. The remaining experts are split evenly � 15% for a fall and 15% for a sideways trend;
- all the indicators on H4 and D1 point downward for GBP/USD. The analysts� opinions are divided, with the bulls having an edge � 50% vote for a rise and 40% for a drop. According to graphical analysis on H4 and D1, in the next few weeks, the pair will still try to reach the low of 2009 at 1.3500, after which it will return to resistance at 1.4080. With this said, graphical analysis on H1 elaborates that before going downward, the pair may rise a bit and reach 1.3910;
- in their attempt to predict USD/JPY�s movement, both experts and indicators are quite neutral, with somewhat bullish sentiment. Graphical analysis agrees with them overall � USD/JPY should first rise to 114.50 (or even to 115.00) and only then go down to support at 112.55;
- as for USD/CHF, 65% of the experts tend to believe that after reaching the key level of 1.0000, the pair will rebound to another strong level of 0.9800 and only then move up again to 1.0200-1.0300. This is echoed by the indicators and graphical analysis, the latter drawing support 100 points higher at 0.9900.

Roman Butko,

PAR 18:13 GMT February 28, 2016
ECB mafia introduced NIRP to extorte money from all European citizens. Capo di capi Mario was instructed during a secret Sicilian meeting by some vert powerful Italian godfathers to force a mafia tax on every European who had any savings.
The mafia used the proceeds of this tax to fund a mafia ring to smugle Iraqi refugees to Europe. The American branch of the same cosa nostra had destroyed Iraq before So that everybody would flee the country.

Lets enjoy the Oscars.

dc CB 18:04 GMT February 28, 2016
ipso (post) facto
When Daniel Nadler woke on Nov. 6, he had just enough time to pour himself a glass of orange juice and open his laptop before the Bureau of Labor Statistics released its monthly employment report at 8:30 a.m. He sat at the kitchen table in his one-bedroom apartment in Chelsea, nervously refreshing his web browser � Command-R, Command-R, Command-R � as the software of his company, Kensho, scraped the data from the bureau�s website. Within two minutes, an automated Kensho analysis popped up on his screen: a brief overview, followed by 13 exhibits predicting the performance of investments based on their past response to similar employment reports.

Nadler couldn�t have double-checked all this analysis if he wanted to. It was based on thousands of numbers drawn from dozens of databases. He just wanted to make sure that Kensho had pulled the right number � the overall growth in American payrolls � from the employment report. It was the least he could do, given that within minutes, at 8:35 a.m., Kensho�s analysis would be made available to employees at Goldman Sachs.

In addition to being a customer, Goldman is also Kensho�s largest investor.

The Robots Are Coming for Wall Street

dc CB 17:46 GMT February 28, 2016
G20 Class Pictures

Why the press to eliminate cash: Pretty Obvious.
But what she learned was even more distressing: Every time she overdrew her checking account, Citigroup was lending her money at 18.25 percent ......Citigroup extended the loan in $100 increments, even if she was short by only $35.

And in one month, Citigroup withdrew the loan payment two days after the due date the bank itself had set. For this, Citigroup collected an additional $25 for the late payment.

�I felt so humiliated,� Ms. Lemus said.

If she just made the minimum payment, it would take Ms. Lemus 13 years to pay off her credit line. The bank has been trying to collect the debt.

dc CB 17:41 GMT February 28, 2016
G20 Class Pictures

Angelina Lemus was puzzled. She had no idea why every month as much as $96 was disappearing from her Citibank checking account.

Months later, Ms. Lemus finally figured out the mystery � or at least part of it. Citibank was taking out the money to pay a loan, with an interest rate of 18 percent, that was devised to cover the shortfall every time Ms. Lemus overdrew her checking account.

The problem was that Ms. Lemus, a home health care worker from Queens, said she never signed up for the line of credit and was unaware that she was borrowing from it every time her account dipped below zero.

In all, Ms. Lemus had amassed $3,400 in debt � a tangle of interest, principal and other fees that have damaged her credit.

Overdraft Practices Continue to Gut Bank Accounts and Haunt Customers

dc CB 17:34 GMT February 28, 2016
G20 Class Pictures

The question at this point is twofold: what happens after the savings of ordinary depositors in the bank officially taxed and/or cash becomes phased out, and more importantly, what happens just before.

In other words, will there be a run on physical cash?

The truth is that if society panics and there is a full blown rush out of existing electronic bank deposits and into physical currency to avoid negative rate taxation, only those who panic first will be safe. Why? Because of the "magic" of fractional reserve banking - there is simply not enough physical currency in circulation to satisfy all savers' claims.

what the chart above shows is that if, and when, a run on physical cash begins, there will be roughly $1 dollar in physical to satisfy $10 dollars in savers' claims, a ratio which drops to 20 cents of "deliverable" cash if the $100 bill is taken out of circulation.

The Global Run On Physical Cash Has Begun: Why It Pays To Panic First

PAR 16:33 GMT February 28, 2016
If he were american Jean Marie Le Pen would vote for Donald Trump . But ... He is French and very old .

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 16:24 GMT February 28, 2016
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GVI Forex Blog 15:34 GMT February 28, 2016
GVI Data Calendar for 29 February 2016

February 28, 2016 ( UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Monday, February 29, 2016. Trading News Calendar

  • Far East: No Major Data
  • Europe: DE- Retail Sales, EZ- flash HICP
  • North America: US- Chicago PMI. Pending Homes Sales


09:00 Ez- flash HICP
All Day Many- Final Mfg PMIs
03:30 AU- Reserve Bank Decision
13:15 US- ADP Private Jobs
15:30 US- EIA Crude
All Day Many- Final Service PMIs
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US/CA- Trade
13:30 US- Employment

GVI Data Calendar for 29 February 2016

Mtl JP 13:54 GMT February 28, 2016
Trading the News

This is a new feature where we look for strategies to trade key events. - Jay Meisler
It used to be a trading topic of interest to me. So much so that I got a few EA trading robots just for trying to trade key events.

I have suggested in previous posts that Strategy without Tactics is an incomplete discussion.

Here is my last contribution to the discussion:
Regardless of Strategy - trade tiny. You will panic less and execute (Tactic) better than IF load big.

Generals and other COs dreamed up Strategies can go to Sh!ts without Sergeants' and other NCOs' on the ground effective tactics application.
�No Battle Plan Survives Contact With the Enemy� - German military strategist Helmuth von Moltke

Planning Error #1: Relying on Plans Leads to Failure.

Mtl JP 13:02 GMT February 28, 2016
Expectations For Shanghai G20 Low


G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting
Shanghai, February 27, 2016
Have some trade ideas ?
tia !

GVI Forex Blog 12:58 GMT February 28, 2016
EXCLUSIVE: Odds For A Fed Policy Tightening Rise With Positive USD Implications

John M. Bland MBA, CTA

Re Fed policy (closing Fed Fund Futures implied Rate implications at Fridays close�current target level 0.375%.

Rising U.S. interest rates would imply a stronger USD.

Average levels (prev close) for
March 16= 0.39% (0.385%)
June 16= 0.45% (0..430%)
Sep 16= 0.49% (0.445%)
Dec 16= 0.545% (0.475%)

So you can see how the outlook for a Fed tightening increased on Friday. The odds on a March rate hike remain negligible.

EXCLUSIVE: Odds For A Fed Policy Tightening Rise With Positive USD Implications

GVI Forex john bland 12:27 GMT February 28, 2016
Caution on FX next week...

abel- My personal Opinions-- I take this business one day at a time. Friday appeared to be a watershed session with markets taking a view that the U.S., economy might have turned. This would give the Fed the go ahead to start to tighten monetary policy. I think they will need strong confirmation in the U.S. February employment data this Friday. All I can suggest is to do what I do and watch the stock markets in the U.S. on Monday (how they perform and ultimately close.

As for JPY strength, I think its been due to the repatriation of carry trade loans. Whether that continues will depend on global equity markets as well.

Obviously the collapse of EURUSD on Friday was due to stop losses on EUR longs. I don't think traders will be aggressively setting new EURUSD shorts early next week. Watch for your key signal on Friday.

GVI Forex Blog 12:20 GMT February 28, 2016
Forex Trading Outlook for the Week Ahead: Is the Dollar Going Higher?

The coming week is one that will be full of key economic data, highlighted by the US Feb jobs report on Friday. This comes in a market where a risk of Fed rate hikes has been put back on the table while an ECB easing is widely anticipated. This has revived the monetary polixy divergence theme and will make markets highly senstive to economc data, especially from the U.S. The other focus remains on Brexit and see the link below to participate in our traders' poll.

Forex Trading Outlook for the Week Ahead

jkt abel 10:04 GMT February 28, 2016
Caution on FX next week...

it seems that general consensus here has been for a strong usd next week following friday's usd move
i wonder if any fresh usd trade suggestions early monday or is it too late/risky?

nw kw 05:31 GMT February 28, 2016
Commitment Of Traders Report

free cash for cad oil seen, cad/jpy for xaucad impressive strength, still do trend or big bang reversal with

jkt abel 03:40 GMT February 28, 2016
Commitment Of Traders Report

john, now that g20 is out of the way, do you think reversal of the jpy move will happen? or the extension is more likely?

dc CB 00:45 GMT February 28, 2016

COLUMBIA, S.C. � Drawing overwhelming support from the African-American voters who deserted her here eight years ago, Hillary Clinton won her first resounding victory of the 2016 campaign in South Carolina on Saturday, delivering a blow to Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont as their fight turns to the 11 states where Democrats vote on Tuesday.

After supporting Barack Obama in 2008, African-American voters, who will be the dominant force in the coming Southern primaries, turned out in droves for Mrs. Clinton here. They supported her over Mr. Sanders by a 5-to-1 ratio, while he won the bulk of white voters, according to early exit polling.

Mrs. Clinton assiduously cultivated the support of black voters, not least by showing her devotion to President Obama and by promising to build on his legacy. She capped off months of campaigning here with stops on Friday at a popular soul food restaurant and bakery in Charleston and a rally at a historically black college in Orangeburg, alongside black surrogates including the TV personality Star Jones and the state�s longtime representative, James E. Clyburn.

�I don�t think President Obama gets the credit he deserves for digging us out of the ditch Republicans put us in,� Mrs. Clinton said, a line she often used in South Carolina, where Mr. Obama defeated her by 29 points in 2008.

Hillary Clinton Wins South Carolina Primary

GVI Forex john bland 00:20 GMT February 28, 2016
Hillary Clinton wins South Carolina Democrat Primary overwhelmingly over Bernie Sanders.

dc CB 00:16 GMT February 28, 2016
G20 Class Pictures




Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan

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