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Forex Forum Archive for 03/13/2016

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Livingston nh 23:46 GMT March 13, 2016
Monday Trading

Merkel may have bolstered Brexit - Pound may do well - all the elitists may have second thots about capital into EU

GVI Forex john bland 22:08 GMT March 13, 2016
Monday Trading

Livingston nh 21:19 GMT March 13, 2016
Fun with Covers

The Geriatric Election -

dc CB 21:01 GMT March 13, 2016
Fun with Covers


PAR 20:54 GMT March 13, 2016
German regional elections
AFD the big winner. Frauke Petry big winner. Merkel huge loser. Merxit coming closer and closer.

dc CB 20:29 GMT March 13, 2016
New Poll: Would a Trump Presidency Be Good or Bad for US Stocks

The historical significance of the 2016 U.S. Presidential contest isn’t yet generally recognized.

if it turns out instead to be between Trump v. Clinton, then what will be the aristocratic backing of each?

On Clinton’s side will be Wall Street — and this includes the ‘shadow banks’ (the non-“bank” sellers of what Bill Clinton and the Republicans caused to become unregulated credit derivatives), from which Hillary Clinton is also receiving donations, and from which the Clinton Foundation is supported and overseen — along with other Clinton funders).

if the election turns out to be between Trump versus Sanders, then this will be the first U.S. Presidential election ever in which both of the major-Party nominees will have committed themselves to policies (Trump clearly on foreign affairs, Sanders clearly on domestic affairs) that the aristocracy vigorously oppose, and that presents a severe threat to the aristocrats' continued rule of the country.

This Election Is The Biggest Threat To The US Aristocracy (Biggest Opportunity For Voters) Since At Least 1932

Mtl JP 20:21 GMT March 13, 2016
GVI Data Calendar for 14 March 2016

spending on refugee is boost to GDP

Sydney ACC 20:04 GMT March 13, 2016
GVI Data Calendar for 14 March 2016

Just how much is it costing to resettle the refugees?
Australia undertook to take 12,000 Syrian refugees and budgeted AUD 700 million for this purpose.
That's AUD 58,000 per person - take AUD 58 billion for a million on the same basis.

Livingston nh 19:39 GMT March 13, 2016
GVI Data Calendar for 14 March 2016

John -- first, Germany hasn't gotten the bill yet for Merkel's Open Door policy; second, the Turkish extortion deal is being "reviewed" by other EU countries and Merkel was in a bad situation w/ most of these, but now needs to go back to Erdogan next week in a weaker position // so the chaos will continue, Tusk and Juncker are listening to EU members more than Merkel, UK in Brexit mode, some EU countries w/o governing parties and how long is Greece going to keep the burden if Turkey says NO ------ So no EU deal and nation states will keep closing borders
The CDU may stick /w Merkel but she would need to get off her high horse and quit lecturing, policy based on morality instead of politics is bad for business
This is bigger than the Greek soap opera by a long shot

Sydney ACC 19:30 GMT March 13, 2016
GVI Data Calendar for 14 March 2016

Marie Le Pen must be heartened with the result achieved by AfD. They've come from nowhere to achieve over 20% in Saxony-Anhalt plus more than 10% of the vote in three other regions.
According to various commentators there seems little prospect of Merkel being deposed, there's no obvious alternative.
There's likely to be a build up in talk about Europe fragmenting post-Brexit and today's elections will add heat to that chatter.
All in all not good for the euro but not catastrophic.

Mtl JP 19:20 GMT March 13, 2016
The Fed

State-backed bank is cutting 220 investment advice positions

RBS keeping up with or ahead of times ?

RBS replaces people with ‘robo-advisers’ - FT

GVI Forex john bland 18:40 GMT March 13, 2016
GVI Data Calendar for 14 March 2016

I am trying to figure out the forex implications, if any for Chancellor Merkel's regional losses Sunday due to her immigration policies. I think they were significant and she is the defacto leader of Europe...

Any thoughts?

Livingston nh 18:29 GMT March 13, 2016
GVI Data Calendar for 14 March 2016


"Chancellor Angela Merkel's conservatives lost out in two out of three regional state elections on Sunday as Germans gave a thumbs-down to her accommodating refugee policy with a big vote for the anti-immigration Alternative for Germany (AfD).

The poor showing in both Baden-Wuerttemberg and Rhineland-Palatinate represented a worst-case scenario for Merkel, who has staked her legacy on her decision last year to open Germany's doors to over 1 million migrants.

The backlash was also visible in Saxony-Anhalt in former East Germany, where Merkel's conservative Christian Democrats (CDU) remained the largest party but the AfD grabbed 21.5 percent. "

Livingston nh 16:41 GMT March 13, 2016
GVI Data Calendar for 14 March 2016

About a half hour 'til first exit polls in Germany -- seems Merkel has lost support in EU for refugee policy so if domestic support turns, the EU allies she has left may bolt as well

Politicians are even better than sharks at sensing blood in the water

GVI Forex Blog 15:51 GMT March 13, 2016
GVI Data Calendar for 14 March 2016

March 13, 2016 ( UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Monday, March 14, 2016. Trading News Calendar

  • Far East: No Major Data
  • Europe: EZ- Industrial Production
  • North America: No Major Data

00:00 US/CA- Clocks Move Ahead One Hour
No Major Data
03:00 JP- BOJ
12:30 US- Retail Sales
09:30 GB- Employment
12:30 US- House Starts & Permits
12:30 US- CPI
18:00 US Fed Decision
00:30 AU- 09:00 Employment
08:30 CH- SNB Decision
12:00 GB- BOE Decision
09:30 GB- Retail Sales
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
12:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
12:30 CA- CPI
14:00 US- University of Michigan (prelim)

GVI Data Calendar for 14 March 2016

GVI Forex john bland 15:28 GMT March 13, 2016
Commitment Of Traders Report

Note as of last Tuesday, the COT Report suggests dealers were getting shorter EURUSD into the ECB meeting. This set up the short-covering rally afterwards...
Net EUR COT Positions

Click on chart for EUR COT Details

Sydney ACC 14:22 GMT March 13, 2016
Chinese Data
China's weakening economy has again turned in a disappointing performance with industrial production, retail sales and credit growth coming in below expectations.

A deluge of data from China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed industrial production over January and February — combined to flatten the effects of the Lunar New Year — rose by 5.4 per cent throughout the year.

It is the slowest growth rate in industrial production in seven years, down on the forecast growth of 5.6 per cent and a significant cooling from the 5.9 per cent annualised growth recorded in December.

Retail sales, which had been a beacon of strength in China's economy, were up 10.2 per cent over the year, well below both the forecast 10.8 per cent and the December growth rate of 11.1 per cent.


GVI Forex 13:00 GMT March 13, 2016
China January-February activity data weak, policy easing expected
China's activity data remained weak in the first two months of 2016, with factory output growth hitting the weakest since the global financial crisis, keeping pressure on policymakers to do more to avert a sharper showdown in the world's second-largest economy.

China January-February activity data weak, policy easing expected

HK [email protected] 12:26 GMT March 13, 2016
BETTER RISK OFF:A North Korean submarine has gone missing at sea

bali sja 04:43 GMT 03/13/2016

Any link to that joke?

So I give another, but real no joke from DPRK.

DPRK News Service ‏@DPRK_News 14h14 hours ago
Fascist gangs continue to rampage in U.S. city-state of Chicago, slaughtering supporters of Donald Trump with neither pity nor mercy.


Mtl JP 09:43 GMT March 13, 2016
The New Europe

Obama to visit London in bid to keep UK in the EU: report - rtrs
LONDON U.S. President Barack Obama will come to London in April and urge British voters to back continued membership of the European Union, The Independent on Sunday newspaper reported.
Amazing ... UK wants to ban Trump from entry but not this Nobel peace prize winner

report - rtrs

bali sja 04:43 GMT March 13, 2016
BETTER RISK OFF:A North Korean submarine has gone missing at sea

it is not sunk, it has gone stealthy, and suddenly appears near hawaii, NK's new tech ;)

HK [email protected] 03:41 GMT March 13, 2016
BETTER RISK OFF:A North Korean submarine has gone missing at sea

The US Naval Institute (USNI) News said the submarine was presumed sunk.


dc CB 01:46 GMT March 13, 2016
New Poll: Would a Trump Presidency Be Good or Bad for US Stocks

Sometimes, less is more, and in infamous "Black Swan" philosopher Nassim Taleb's case, summing up the chaos that is enveloping America, and its forthcoming election was as simple as the following:

"The *establishment* composed of journos, BS-Vending talking heads with well-formulated verbs, bureaucrato-cronies, lobbyists-in training, New Yorker-reading semi-intellectuals, image-conscious empty suits, Washington rent-seekers and other "well thinking" members of the vocal elites are not getting the point about what is happening and the sterility of their arguments."

To which he appended the following 17 perfectly succinct words:

"People are not voting for Trump (or Sanders). People are just voting, finally, to destroy the establishment."


IMHO: that's why this election has the potential to get Violent. As violent at the election in 1968...when the Chicago cops beat the crap out of demonstrators at the Democratic Convention....and Walter Conkite cried diring his newscast over the end of democracy-as-we-know-it.

Nassim Taleb Sums Up America's Election In 17 "Black Swan" Words

nw kw 01:20 GMT March 13, 2016
New Poll: Would a Trump Presidency Be Good or Bad for US Stocks

see gold, up to fast for fear in a war or banks, now we wade to find support if its strong.


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Mon 27 May 2019
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