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Forex Forum Archive for 03/19/2016

Pick a date from the header above to view forum postings for that day.
Click here to join the Live Forex Forum.


GVI Forex Jay Meisler 23:49 GMT March 19, 2016
A Trading Approach for Current Markets You Really Should Try

I recently asked for feedback on our latest trading program and one consistent reply was a request for a personal session with me. While I cannot accommodate everyone with a one-on-one I decided to hold small group sessions to explain my approach and answer questions. Space is limited,

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Mar 21, 2016 10:00 AM EDT at:

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Mtl JP 23:20 GMT March 19, 2016
Trade Off The Cretins Corner

re nh 17:56 // would someone, pretty please, with access ask:

Increasing Negative Rate Environment Winners & Losers

GVI Forex john bland 22:55 GMT March 19, 2016
Federal Reserve: Who\'s On First?

John M. Bland, MBA, CTA

Fed Changes Direction
Financial markets were blindsided once again by the latest Fed decision

Federal Reserve: Who's On First?

Livingston nh 17:56 GMT March 19, 2016
Trade Off The Cretins Corner

fwiw -- risky business?

LINK

dc CB 16:53 GMT March 19, 2016
Trading the FMOC

Apparently, the Fed's dovish lean was part of a coordinated effort on the part of global central banks. Have a look at our annotated chart ZH

Tin Foil Hat Theory??? Probably Not

PAR 15:53 GMT March 19, 2016
Trade Off The Cretins Corner

Ideally, the ECB might hope that euro zone banks would take advantage of periods of market calm to strengthen their balance sheets. The problem is that the full extent of banks’ balance sheet weakness has never been objectively assessed. The ECB’s stress tests appear to have been designed to judge banks’ resilience to threats they had already addressed rather than those that might arise in future. The challenge might more easily be met if the banks were operating in a static environment. However, prolonged below-trend economic activity is likely resulting in progressive deterioration in the quality of the assets the banks are holding. Yet, even with the ECB as the single regulator of the euro zone’s larger lending institutions, there would be serious political difficulties in the central bank’s tackling systemic frailties in determined fashion. With the political structure of the EU under stress as never before, the odds are against the ECB defusing the bad debt bomb.

Mtl JP 15:48 GMT March 19, 2016
Federal Reserve: Who's On First?

"Prudent policy suggests edging the policy rate and the balance sheet towards more normal levels," Bullard said
"inflation net of the oil price shock is reasonably close to target."

Bullard says Fed's goals largely met, rates should edge up - reuters

Mtl JP 14:01 GMT March 19, 2016
Trade Off The Cretins Corner

Extremely High un-intended Consequences Risk of
NEGATIVE RATES

First safety boxes became popular in Japan in reaction to numbnuts' negarates

Here is an idea, one hopes, that must be crossing the minds of Kuroda's co-cretins:

IF ... banks start to run short of cash coz folks start to ask en masse for their electronic deposits in cash withdrawals ...

HOW CLOSE IS THE FRACTIONAL BANKING SYSTEM TO A COLLAPSE ?
- Is it one, two ..___ more rate cuts deeper into nega-territory ?

------------------------------
Reuters - DUESSELDORF, GERMANY, MARCH 17
The European Central Bank's negative interest rates are sparking demand for safe deposit boxes, where bank customers can store cash to avoid the prospect of paying the bank interest on their accounts, German bankers said.

"Lockboxes are in vogue,"
"Demand for customer deposit boxes is continuously growing,"

Negative ECB rates fuel demand for safe deposit boxes, German banks say

Livingston nh 13:50 GMT March 19, 2016
Federal Reserve: Who's On First?



The attached chart shows the period of the Great Moderation the beginning of which signaled the Death of the Philips Curve -- the time period (Jan 1985 to Present) covers the end of Volcker reign to Yellen -- the effect of events economic, political and social during the period are subject to various interpretations BUT I offer the chart only as a snapshot comparison of our current "data dependent" condition
A bit more complicated than Sesame Street but one of these lines is different

PAR 13:11 GMT March 19, 2016
Central Banks Balance Sheet
Reply   
'On the left side of the balance sheet there's nothing right, on the right side there's nothing left.'

Livingston nh 12:59 GMT March 19, 2016
Federal Reserve: Who's On First?

John - seems like the Fed is the latest agency victim of regulatory capture

nw kw 11:08 GMT March 19, 2016
NEXT

jay you never replied to my e mail so e I not to poet hear?

Mtl JP 10:49 GMT March 19, 2016
Trade Off The Cretins Corner

probably ...

“If we had not had those negative rates, we would be in a much worse place today, with inflation probably lower than where it is, with growth probably lower than where we have it,” Lagarde said. “It was a good thing to actually implement those negative rates under the current circumstances.”
-
Headline says "Have Helped"
The IMF cretin knows all too well that a negative can not be proven.

shameful reporting by John Boudreau, K Oanh Ha




IMF's Lagarde Says Negative Rates Have Helped Global Economy

GVI Forex Blog 10:31 GMT March 19, 2016
Federal Reserve: Who's On First?
Reply   

John M. Bland, MBA, CTA

Fed Changes Direction
Financial markets were blindsided once again by the latest Fed decision

Federal Reserve: Who's On First?

 




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