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Forex Forum Archive for 03/27/2016

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Mtl JP 19:38 GMT March 27, 2016
A Event: Forex Tsunami Watch

if she tempers her dovish stance... .. ... EURUSD could fall - GVI Forex john bland 12:44
-
Interesting that her potential tempering dovish stance could see by way of inverse cross-correlation between lower eurusd higher stocks.
Typically stocks DO NOT LIKE prospect of more expensive money.

Price action history lesson of Yellen's so-called surprise dovish turn saw players reprice a rate hike for September:
Rate hike pushed further out -> higher euro/lower dollar
lower dollar -> saw higher crude
higher crude -> saw higher stocks
--
Over time since, stocks pulled back some on a portion of players listening to the hawkish comments emanating from some of the FED gang members.
It is good player-entertaining theatrics: Yellen greases the stock market with dove-talk, her musketeers counter talk hawk as if they can hike rates.

Bottom Line
Instruments likely to subject to player perceptions about Yellen's pro / against stocks position :
Stocks (2039),
Eur/dlr (1.1165),
Gold (1217)
Dlr/x (96.14)
IF you think Yellen will attempt to appear to be bringing her view in line somewhat with her hawks USD should see a bit of a bid. That is for before her yik yak.

IF - post yak - euro does not rocket past 1.13/1.1350, odds of downtrend bias will likely have been set.

Livingston nh 17:33 GMT March 27, 2016
A Event: Forex Tsunami Watch

I don't know if Yellen will take audience questions - the Club's policy is usually written questions are submitted and screened for "relevancy" and similarity of interest// I don't think she'll deviate much from the "new mandate" and the speech will probably be similar to last Fall's "Wikipedia" speech that she offered up on inflation -- expect a lot of "IF's" but she may avoid "data dependency" because laughter would probably break the mood

Imagine the response if Yellen was the CEO of a large financial organization that just reported surprise lower profit and gave a performance like her last presser - she would have been excoriated and resignation calls would likely have followed /// something magical about the Fed makes everybody drink the Kool-aid
___

despite the turmoil created by Fed bank presidents it appears that Groupthink is alive and well at FOMC -- a Hilsenrath article from Thurs afternoon featuring an interview from last Monday with new Dallas Fed president (his comments speak for themselves) -- THERE CAN BE NO DISSENT by Stepford Wives

LINK

GVI Forex Blog 16:55 GMT March 27, 2016
GVI Data Calendar for 28 March 2016
Reply   


March 27, 2016 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Monday, March 28, 2016.

  • Far East: AU, NZ- Holiday
  • Europe: CH, EZ, GB- Holiday
  • North America: US- Advance Trade, PCE Deflator, Personal Income. Pending Homes Sales, 2-yr
WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:

28-MAR MONDAY
ALL DAY AU, NZ, EZ, CH, UK Holiday
29-MAR TUESDAY
14:00 CB Confidence
30-MAR WEDNESDAY
12:15 US- ADP Jobs
14:30 US- EIA Crude
31-MAR THURSDAY
08:30 GB- GDP
09:00 EZ- flash HICP
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
1-APR FRIDAY
ALL DAY FINAL MFG PMIs
12:30 US- Employment
14:00 US- final Univ of Michigan Survey
3-APR SUNDAY
00:00 AU/NZ Clocks Fall Back One Hour

GVI Data Calendar for 28 March 2016

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 16:00 GMT March 27, 2016
Forex Trading Outlook for the Week Ahead: Key Event Filled Week
Reply   

Those coming back from extended Easter breaks will have little time to settle in as the coming week is one that will be dominated by a full economic calendar and key events. The highlight will likely be Fed Chair Yellen's speech on Tuesday where she will have a chance to clarify the surprise and to some dumbfounding dovish stance taken at the recent FOMC meeting. The dollar, meanwhile, has recovered and see where it might be headed in my outlook for the week ahead. Click for


Forex Trading Outlook for the Week Ahead: Key Event Filled Week

GVI Forex john bland 12:44 GMT March 27, 2016
A Event: Forex Tsunami Watch
Reply   
March 29 Speech - Chair Janet L. Yellen
Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy
At the Economic Club of New York Luncheon, New York, New York 12:20 p.m. ET

No telling what she might say.

Keywords: inflation, economic slack, employment

Central Bankers (Yellen, Draghi, etc.) have replaced economic data as the greatest single source of forex volatility and trading opportunities. Markets are waiting to see if she tempers her dovish stance taken just under two weeks ago. If so EURUSD could fall.

nw kw 10:57 GMT March 27, 2016
Commitment Of Traders Report

Average oil demand in the world’s second-largest crude consumer is expected to grow by 420,000 barrels a day this year, the bank said, adding that apparent oil product demand expanded 6.2 percent last year to 9.4 million barrels a day. China will account for 37 percent of global demand growth this year, Standard Chartered estimates.

China’s fuel pricing system will also support the expansion of crude imports and refining capacity, the bank said. China’s government decided late last year to stop lowering fuel prices when crude trades below $40 a barrel, supporting gasoline and diesel above levels where they would be trading internationally.

give fed time for oil stabilize than slap stick Graney stabilize usa banks // eur qe market awaiting car boom as the usa at end of meager car boom from qe.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-03-25/china-seen-sustaining-strong-crude-imports-on-refining-reserves

 




Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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