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Forex Forum Archive for 04/1/2016

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dc CB 20:40 GMT April 1, 2016
I heard a grifter say



Ultra Petroleum Defers Making ~$26m Interest Payment

dc CB 20:10 GMT April 1, 2016
I heard a grifter say
Reply   
Call me, don't be afraid, you can call me

There's a service I can render
There's so much that I can do ...

Call Me

GVI Forex Blog 19:50 GMT April 1, 2016
CHART POINTS: Free Forex Database
Reply   



Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format

CHART POINTS: Free Forex Database

GVI Forex john bland 19:44 GMT April 1, 2016
Commitment Of Traders Report
Reply   

Commitment of Trader Report Charts Trader Positions: EUR, JPY, CHF, GBP


Net EUR JPY COT Positions



Click on chart for EUR COT Details






Click on chart forJPY COT Details



X+++++
Net GBP and CHF COT Positions





Click on chart for COT Details







Click on chart for COT Details


Net AUD and CAD COT Positions





Click on chart for COT Details







Click on chart for COT Details




G+++++

Commitment of Trader Report Charts Trader Positions: CAD, AUD, Gold, Oil


Net Crude, Gold, S&P and 10-yr Positions







Click on chart for COT Details










Click on chart for COT Details










Click on chart for COT Details










Click on chart for COT Details




dc CB 18:47 GMT April 1, 2016
Kool-aid alert

Thanks to the release of Fed chief Yellen's February diary, we now know exactly when she called Bank of England Governor Carney and ECB President Draghi. Can you guess when?

Marking the exact bottom... As someone suddenly decide to panic-buy stocks right as Carney's 40 minute conversation was over - and all amid spiking CDS, collapsing bank stock prices, surging Yuan vol, and "real" crashing earnings expectations...

Inside Janet Yellen's Diary, A Stunning Discovery: Two Phone Calls That Saved The World

dc CB 18:03 GMT April 1, 2016
Kool-aid alert

just another Grifter.


Headlines: U.S. Kept Up Pace of Hiring in March, Adding 215,000 Jobs

This Is the Job Market We’ve Been Hoping for All These Years

OPM shud take the Dow above the so far denied 17800.

Livingston nh 17:32 GMT April 1, 2016
Kool-aid alert

JP - It appears to me that she is saying she cut Yellen some slack but there will be no "next time" -- the problem w/ yellen is that she has never been subjected to rigorous cross examination and the quick cut-off of irrelevant commentary in a deposition -- "M'am, just a yes or no will suffice"

Mtl JP 17:27 GMT April 1, 2016
Kool-aid alert

nh the policy-making bank collective of cretins speaks true to economists' one one hand and on the other where they do not want to be pinned and be held responsible for an unequivocal stance. Even Yellen insists to be seen as a spokesman on behalf of a collective decision.

In nearly every other profession I can think of in which someone claims higher authority due to degree, diploma or licence their word is deemed to be true(er) than that of a lay person's. But in turn they can be held responsible for their assertions.

That is why these cretins (who are not stupid by virtue of their diplomed education) talk like lawyers who give a legal opinion - which only lays out both sides of the coin like the economists one vs other hand - but extremely rarely and then only extremely carefully and with the approval of the rest of the lawfirm's partners before giving out a advice (for which the fees are multiple many times more than those for an opinion) because to giving out advice is attached responsibility for being right or wrong.

These PhD'ed economists becometh bankers need to feel the heat of personal responsibility / liability. Until then they will have a free romp.

nw kw 17:16 GMT April 1, 2016
Kool-aid alert

you take profit in gold miners for a run, was up biggest .

Livingston nh 17:10 GMT April 1, 2016
Kool-aid alert

"I do not think the FOMC is behind the curve, but while there are risks to moving too soon, there are also risks to waiting too long to take the next steps on the normalization path given the lags with which monetary policy affects the economy. We live with uncertainty and one could always make the case that we should wait to act until we gather more information. But waiting until every piece of data lines up in the correct way means waiting too long and risks having to move rates up more aggressively in the future, with negative impacts on our economy. Similarly, forestalling rate increases for too long in light of financial market volatility that doesn't affect the outlook may simply produce more volatility in the future if we find ourselves having to increase rates more aggressively than anticipated to achieve our goals."

A non-dissenting voting member - you make the call

GVI Forex john bland 17:05 GMT April 1, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

US Weekly Baker-Hughes Rig Count

U.S. Data Charts




ALERT
Total (inc gas) U.S.: 450 vs 464 (-14) prev
US (oil): 362 vs. 372 (-10) prev

Canada: 49 vs. 55 (-6)



TTN: Live News Special Offer

Livingston nh 17:04 GMT April 1, 2016
Kool-aid alert

Mester Speech

LINK

Livingston nh 16:59 GMT April 1, 2016
Kool-aid alert
Reply   
we are about to find out if collegiality can trump contempt - if Mester derides Brainerd's Global Mandate then we have Game On - chalk bet is that she plays nice BUT sometimes the long shots come in (but you can go broke waiting)

GVI Forex Blog 16:58 GMT April 1, 2016
GVI Data Calendar for 4 April 2016
Reply   



April 1, 2016 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Monday, April 4, 2016.

  • Far East: CN- Holiday AU- Retail Sales
  • Europe: GB- Cunstruction PMI, EZ- PPI
  • North America: US- Factory Orders

WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:

3-APR SUNDAY
00:00 AU/NZ Clocks Fall Back One Hour

4-APR MONDAY
00:00 CN- Holiday
5-APR TUESDAY
03:30 AU- RBA Decision
All Day Final Service PMIs
6-APR WEDNESDAY
14:30 US- EIA Crude
18:00 US- FOMC Minutes
7-APR THURSDAY
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
8-APR FRIDAY
12:30 CA- Employment


GVI Data Calendar for 4 April 2016

Livingston nh 16:36 GMT April 1, 2016
CRUDE
Reply   
WTI decline has been halted at 89 ema - 55 ema remains below ~36 -- CAD and NOK have reversed some earlier weakness // energy still weaker than last year this time and the Fed can't do anything about it -- but they keep shoveling sand at the tide

london red 16:00 GMT April 1, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

74/86 determines nxt pop.

london red 15:49 GMT April 1, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

euro 86. abv there risk of a close abv 114

Mtl JP 15:48 GMT April 1, 2016
BREAKING NEWS



Mester 's due to yak at top of the hour.
she is a votin' hawk
- she could move the priceline some

GVI Forex john bland 15:36 GMT April 1, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

Atlanta Fed tracking estimate for 1Q16 GDP RAISED to 0.70% from +0.60%. (annualized)
--TTN

nw kw 15:28 GMT April 1, 2016
1215, 1220 resistance

with pull top side for u/j to enjoy, pipster.

nw kw 15:22 GMT April 1, 2016
1215, 1220 resistance

blind to xagjpy,///////// 1170.

Israel Dil 15:21 GMT April 1, 2016
Friday Trading

JP

kudos shmudos... out of any shorts now, Sunday night is the next to start ahorts if at all ;-)

nw kw 15:20 GMT April 1, 2016
1215, 1220 resistance

nut under chop land, gl.

Israel Dil 15:18 GMT April 1, 2016
1215, 1220 resistance

kwuntichke,

the few seconds deep wasn't a clear signal to you?
enjoy the hot potato in your hands

nw kw 15:13 GMT April 1, 2016
1215, 1220 resistance

audgold still descending fast markets still hot, aud can pop up

HK Kwun 15:10 GMT April 1, 2016
1215, 1220 resistance

Sell Gold
Entry: 1214 Target: Stop: 1224

not signal not clear? why long gold after break 1225? good NFP today

nw kw 15:08 GMT April 1, 2016
Friday Trading

at best aud has no QE so driven from eur carry trade

london red 15:07 GMT April 1, 2016
Friday Trading

bounced again near 43 but no lower low this time. so the high at 67 becomes the pivot. if broken a lot lose interest on further downside and creeps higher. need the lower low to convince of more but this 43 level was in folks plans to go long after a better print. that didnt materialise as data mixed but still saw good biz and bounced once got dwn there so if cant move lower its sideways to higher. a lot gone home i feel.

nw kw 15:03 GMT April 1, 2016
Friday Trading

gbpaud driving can help but I cant see gbp

Belgrade Knez 15:02 GMT April 1, 2016
Friday Trading


london red 14:16 GMT 04/01/2016
keep this bounce to 65 no more and lower again. bit of a tail but lot of work to do for upside


you are the man!

london red 15:00 GMT April 1, 2016
Friday Trading

a lot of the majors look ready to retrace a bit. monthly/quarterly candles suggest some backfill in many cases. its not be all end all but discount at your peril.

nw kw 14:59 GMT April 1, 2016
Friday Trading

AUD/USD has structural change in weekly aud/jpy, resitance down trend line from 102.0 top so look at all jpy charts and gold changed but, bloom china all in fore growth instead devalue. gl.

Livingston nh 14:51 GMT April 1, 2016
Friday Trading

Despite good PMI data AUD/USD looks like it could test the 21 dma -- 4 hr chart looks dodgier but also suggests a 0.755 test

dc CB 14:48 GMT April 1, 2016
Friday Trading

I think the operative today is April Fools...to all who sold Stox and bought Treas. on the NFP number.

Because based on yest close, neither set has moved very far.

Mtl JP 14:44 GMT April 1, 2016
Friday Trading



eurusd snp cross-corr
sometimes it works others not

Livingston nh 14:42 GMT April 1, 2016
Friday Trading

ISM has had bigger impact on treasurys and stox than NFP -
SPX has filled the opening gap

See if Mester adds a little drama to the Opening Day of Q2

Mtl JP 14:37 GMT April 1, 2016
Friday Trading

nh IF I may humbly suggest cure for trigger-itis is to not over-think/analyse reasons for (not) taking on a trade. Leave analysis to economists and would be socialist do-gooders.


Israel Dil 14:32 GMT April 1, 2016
1215, 1220 resistance

kwun

you mean long with 1203,30 stop, right?

Livingston nh 14:25 GMT April 1, 2016
Friday Trading

thanx JP but my recent USD/CAD was blown up at 1.2940 stop and haven't chased it again because it would have felt like the forbidden revenge trade - timing is everything

HK Kwun 14:24 GMT April 1, 2016
1215, 1220 resistance
Reply   
Sell Gold
Entry: 1214 Target: Stop: 1224

sell now

Livingston nh 14:21 GMT April 1, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

re: construction spending in feb -- NFP showed March construction employment improvement (skilled contractor residential and heavy commercial) so should be improvement next mth

ISM showed good new orders (+6.8), backlog and a 13 pt jump in prices paid

Also NFP gov hiring was 20k and plug factor was only 64k

GVI Forex Blog 14:19 GMT April 1, 2016
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Final University of Michigan Survey Revised higher
Reply   
University of Michigan Sentiment Survey. Final data revised up.

BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Final University of Michigan Survey Revised higher

london red 14:16 GMT April 1, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

keep this bounce to 65 no more and lower again. bit of a tail but lot of work to do for upside

Mtl JP 14:15 GMT April 1, 2016
Friday Trading

nh / (not on GV Calendar) two BoC releases coming out at bottom of hour that could affect your cad possies:
- Business Outlook Future Sales
- Senior Loan Officer Survey
--
At noon NYT voting hawk Mester yaks on "policy outlook"
---
Dil 13:26 // Kudos already brother even IF euro don't see sub 1.13

GVI Forex Blog 14:12 GMT April 1, 2016
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Manufacturing PMIs Beat
Reply   
U.S. ISM Mfg stronger than expected. Final Markit PMI revised up. ISM report more important.

BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Manufacturing PMIs Beat

Israel Dil 14:12 GMT April 1, 2016
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Monthly Employment Report In Line

purk

did you move to wfak diet? 80 pips calls with a week validity?

london red 14:11 GMT April 1, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

euro sup 43 below here there is no chance of upside one off events excepted.

london red 14:10 GMT April 1, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

double t neck 8000 below 7980 blood.

Hillegom purk 14:08 GMT April 1, 2016
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Monthly Employment Report In Line

11265, tick tick tick... between now and a week...

london red 14:05 GMT April 1, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

maybe here comes roll on eurgbp.

GVI Forex john bland 14:04 GMT April 1, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

U.S. Construction Spending February 2015

U.S. Data Charts




ALERT
-0.50% vs. +0.10% exp. vs. +1.50% (r ) prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Forex john bland 14:02 GMT April 1, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

University of Michigan Sentiment Index Final March 2016

U.S. Data Charts




ALERT
91.0 vs. 90.5 exp. vs. 90.0 preliminary


RELEASE: Index of Consumer Sentiment


TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Forex john bland 14:00 GMT April 1, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI March 2016

U.S. Data Charts




News ALERT

51.8 vs. 50.4 exp. vs. 49.5 prev.
RELEASE: ISM Manufacturing PMI


TTN: Live News Special Offer

Belgrade Knez 14:00 GMT April 1, 2016
Friday Trading


No Jay, I haven't.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:59 GMT April 1, 2016
Friday Trading

Knez, di you ever see my video on using crosses...?

Belgrade Knez 13:56 GMT April 1, 2016
Friday Trading


london red

thank you for your always valuable view

I am trying to understand when EURGBP moves which pair is going to follow it moves ... would that be EURUSD or GBPUSD .... but can't figure it out.

london red 13:52 GMT April 1, 2016
Friday Trading

i usually look for 1/5/15 candle reversal. pull up 1min candle have a look at reversal at quarter to hour. my stop is usually abv last high in this case the 11412/13 as abv there takes out hod prob, certainly 35 test. for now edging lower but eurgbp not playing ball. really the duble t needs to play out intraday as dwnside poss but tough without that. you get more pips if eurgbp plays nice.

Belgrade Knez 13:47 GMT April 1, 2016
Friday Trading


london red

as per your statement below, what would you consider fail of 11390-114? .... would that be just few pips above 114 level or candle closing on specific time frame or ..... ? please share your valuable view

Thank you.



london red 13:38 GMT 04/01/2016
well this current rebound needs to fail 11390-114 for new low. pivot for higher is 11412. abv there lower unlikely rather 11435 test.

london red 13:45 GMT April 1, 2016
Friday Trading

euro rollova chance here

GVI Forex john bland 13:45 GMT April 1, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

U.S. Markit PMI March 2016





ALERT
51.5 vs. 51.4 exp. vs. 51.4 prev.



TTN: Live News Special Offer

london red 13:40 GMT April 1, 2016
Friday Trading

usdjpy working higher. not too bad performnace given risk off a fair bit. as lng as risk doesnt fall off further 11180 will be avoided and rather 11230 test.

london red 13:38 GMT April 1, 2016
Friday Trading

well this current rebound needs to fail 11390-114 for new low. pivot for higher is 11412. abv there lower unlikely rather 11435 test.

GVI Forex john bland 13:36 GMT April 1, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

Canada Markit PMI. Improved and above the "50" expansion line.

GVI Forex john bland 13:32 GMT April 1, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

Canada Markit PMI March 2016





ALERT
51.5 vs. n/a exp. vs. 49.4 prev.



TTN: Live News Special Offer

Israel Dil 13:26 GMT April 1, 2016
Friday Trading

red

see euro printing sub 1.13 today from where I am, let's see if it's a place with a limited view ;-)

NY JM 13:26 GMT April 1, 2016
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Monthly Employment Report In Line

Purk, what time frame is the gap on?

Hillegom purk 13:25 GMT April 1, 2016
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Monthly Employment Report In Line

11265 Gappety gap...

london red 13:21 GMT April 1, 2016
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Monthly Employment Report In Line

euro straddlers brk even around 11360/65 so option related buying there u expect. ties into 65 sup further at 43 last line in sand then everything euro related takes up ass.

Mtl JP 13:18 GMT April 1, 2016
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Monthly Employment Report In Line

I suggest to keep an eye / trade on usdcad gv chartpoints
20 day 1.3168 res
10 day 1.3112 res , just tested
quote 1.3110-ish
Pivot 1.2949

Paris ib 13:18 GMT April 1, 2016
Pound in serious trouble

"Britain’s current account deficit is the worst ever recorded in peace-time since the Bank of England started collecting records in 1772 under the reign of George III.

Even during the grimmest moments of the First World War it only slightly exceeded the eye-watering figure of 7pc of GDP racked up in the fourth quarter of last year. No other country in the OECD club is close to this....

Lena Komileva from G+Economics said the current account deficit is now so large that it leaves the country vulnerable to external shocks, amplifying the potential impact of Brexit. Britain’s credit-driven consumer credit is “plainly unsustainable”."

Seems the market is only just waking up to the situation. Which is a bit weird, but hey that's how markets work.

Bit of joy from Ambrose

london red 13:18 GMT April 1, 2016
Friday Trading

euro failed old res 11410. low side 1385. either side of that gives next spike. 11435 or 11365/43

london red 13:17 GMT April 1, 2016
Friday Trading

dont know CB. its up 15% right? this report is close to road of normalisation. so argues weaker gold. if you believe rates up this year gold wont be 15% up end of year.

dc CB 13:15 GMT April 1, 2016
Friday Trading

re Gold...you don't take profits by throwing 20K contracts into the market in a 15 min time slot. and then throw another 20 in the next 15 mins.

that's 4 million Oz of Gold

london red 13:14 GMT April 1, 2016
Friday Trading

watch eurgbp 8019 lt fib just rejected once. if under 80/7985 can retrace. a lot. a brk of fib shud mean euro abv 11440 while eurgbp 8050.

Paris ib 13:13 GMT April 1, 2016
Pound in serious trouble

EUR/GBP through 80.00 - as expected. Significant upside from here will depend on overall Euro performance and the song and dance around Brexit. Still the UK situation is precarious at present and the GBP will continue to see selling medium term (which in my book is till June or so).

Britain HU 13:12 GMT April 1, 2016
Friday Trading

Is there news on sterling or is it brexit jitters?

GVI Forex john bland 13:10 GMT April 1, 2016
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Monthly Employment Report In Line

G.A.- nice observation. Suggest you keep an eye on oil as well vis-a-vis CAD.

london red 13:10 GMT April 1, 2016
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Monthly Employment Report In Line

re loonie. someone bought usd big 1850. lrg intraday rev looks sim to early feb. plus luk at crude for a usd bonus. watch the 200hma if they clear can move to 132.

Vancouver G.A. 13:07 GMT April 1, 2016
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Monthly Employment Report In Line

I noticed when USD up, Euro Down
CAD goes down fast

When USD down, Euro up
CAD holds

i.e. USD/CAD is trying to find any opportunity to go up.

london red 13:05 GMT April 1, 2016
Friday Trading

gold was one of best gainers this yr. maybe this months report was last chance for a dud (march sometimes is) so profits taken as now less risk of job pullback and so a june hike on cards maybe.

Paris ib 13:05 GMT April 1, 2016
USD sell off PART II

The data doesn't change the general picture. No reason to expect a new USD bull trend but I'm not expecting a USD meltdown either. Ongoing, steady USD selling is about where it's at. EUR/USD at the high - more or less - for 2016. USD/JPY dithering here. We need a decisive break below 110 to really get going. But with the BoJ hovering that will be harder to achieve than it sounds. Still, the trend is your friend and the USD trend so far this year is down. gl gt

GVI Forex john bland 13:02 GMT April 1, 2016
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Monthly Employment Report In Line

"The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (also referred to as involuntary part-time workers) was about unchanged in March at 6.1 million and has shown little movement since November. These individuals, who would have preferred full-time employment, were working part-time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a full-time job."

U-6 unemployment Rate
Jan 9.7%
Feb 9.7%
Mar 9.8%

dc CB 13:01 GMT April 1, 2016
Friday Trading

Massive volume in COMEX Gold. over 40K contracts in the last half hour.

london red 12:59 GMT April 1, 2016
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Monthly Employment Report In Line

usdcad at 200hma busting ass. if breaks hourly channel is a whisker over 132.

london red 12:57 GMT April 1, 2016
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Monthly Employment Report In Line

slight lower low this rebound needs to stay under 11435 to keep dwnside in play. when new low hit then current bounce high will mkt new pivot.

london red 12:54 GMT April 1, 2016
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Monthly Employment Report In Line

gbppln c. 530 double lt fibs. broken channel c 5.37. close month at low. so room to roam/backfill.

london red 12:52 GMT April 1, 2016
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Monthly Employment Report In Line

rememember when reaching full emp the emp rate may not move much/fluctuate. while wages firm. so that might be the twist for st lower euro.

london red 12:49 GMT April 1, 2016
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Monthly Employment Report In Line

stops abv 11432/37 done so if returns there must go higher for 65/68 80/90. think 11343/65 shud hold as data so so, means they can continue to test topside on range but that sup must hold or bets off.

GVI Forex john bland 12:48 GMT April 1, 2016
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Monthly Employment Report In Line

The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (also referred to as involuntary part-time workers) was about unchanged in March at 6.1 million and has shown little movement since November. These individuals, who would have preferred full-time employment, were working part-time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a full-time job.

Livingston nh 12:48 GMT April 1, 2016
Cable
Reply   
Daily chart on GBP/USD shows small H&S (better seen on 4 hr chart) so a break of 1.42

london red 12:47 GMT April 1, 2016
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Monthly Employment Report In Line

intraday 3 lower highs for euro, shud test 43/65 on new nfp low. straddle now dwn to 40 odd.

HK [email protected] 12:42 GMT April 1, 2016
Good news are bad this time for the USD.
Reply   

Eat the cake and leave it intact: Good econ. numbers, but please weak the USD, so we can have some more good news:(

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 12:42 GMT April 1, 2016
SELL DOLLAR

ab, nice trade.

GVI Forex Blog 12:42 GMT April 1, 2016
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Monthly Employment Report In Line
Reply   
U.S. Monthly Employment.

MORE: U.S. Data Charts


Maerch 2016 U.S. payroll employment in line with estimates.

Click on chart for more than 10-yr history

BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Monthly Employment Report In Line

EMPOLI ab 12:35 GMT April 1, 2016
SELL DOLLAR
Reply   
not too bad but not too good sufficient to prevent downside march for dollar

sell usd yen

sold 122,25
sl 122,80
tgt 111.10

london red 12:34 GMT April 1, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

43/65 key for euro as report ok ahe better. if below stays dwn. if holds can move higher but not 115

GVI Forex john bland 12:32 GMT April 1, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

U.S. Employment March 2016







ALERT
NFP Jobs: +215K vs. +207K exp. vs. +242K (r +245K ) prev.
Rate: 5.00% vs. 4.90% exp. vs. 4.90% prev.

Avg earnings +0.30% vs. +0.20% exp. vs. -0.10% prev.
BLS: Employment Situation Summary


TTN: Live News Special Offer

dc CB 12:22 GMT April 1, 2016
Friday Trading

NYSE Arca Equities Trading Suspension in Multiple Symbols
07:58 am, 04/01/2016

Market
NYSE ARCA EQUITIES

Due to a technical issue, trading in the following symbols will be suspended for the balance of the trading day, today.

Amazon.com (AMZN)
AutoZone, Inc. (AZO)
Alphabet, Inc. Class C (GOOG)
Alphabet, Inc Class A (GOOGL)
Intuitive Surgical (ISRG)
Markel Corp Common (MKL)
M&T Bank Corp Fixed Rate Cum Series A (MTB-)
M&T Bank Corp Fixed Rate Cum Series C (MTB-C)

All orders have been cancelled back to customers.

dc CB 12:20 GMT April 1, 2016
Friday Trading

nh, they can say anything they want, it creates market volit., but when the time comes to Vote on FOMC day they all vote Not to Raise rates.

As far as the NFP number goes, history does not include one of the most bizzaro Pres Elections in US history. One party totally wacked out and the other with a front runner who "could" be indicted for treason.

Add to that: April Fools Day.

and the 10y Opens at 1.778%

nw kw 12:13 GMT April 1, 2016
Tradng the News - US Jobs

every weekly chart on biggest pivot, tnt, demand new fundes in market as well so be big 1/4

Livingston nh 12:13 GMT April 1, 2016
Friday Trading

JP - in good times dissent is harmless and can be ignored -- G. William Miller is the classic Palace Revolt victim but that took political will and a Promotion Out // I don't think it's good cop, bad cop -- the Fed Presidents have different constituents and Yellen is in uncharted territory

BUt first we see if Mester drinks the Kool-aid

Singapore SGFXTrader 12:11 GMT April 1, 2016
Tradng the News - US Jobs

Red, i need some help here.

Do you know why the Bid for Eur is so strong? Any news or leak?

london red 12:07 GMT April 1, 2016
Tradng the News - US Jobs

dont have crystal ball so dont know numbers but as long as ahe isnt off the scale then euro dip on 200+ nfp likely to be bought. if ahe 0.5 and strong nfp then solid downside, but you might get a blip to fade as trend has been up. might.

Mtl JP 12:05 GMT April 1, 2016
Friday Trading

nh 11:44 the tone of disagreement, if any, becomes important
-
Is the dove/hawk thing a real manifestation of a) democratic FED OR
is it b) deliberate good/bad cop tactic in FED's propaganda toolbox ?

IF it is a) what is the history of FED chair dealing with insubordinate rebels, what r the tools available to deal with a rebellion and ultimately do u think Janet has what it takes to do what-ever would be necessary to bring rebels to heel ?

GVI Forex john bland 11:51 GMT April 1, 2016
Friday Trading

not my view but I just received a bank report that over the last 20-yrs the March NFP beat 200K only 4 times, and only once since 2007. Also the initial print has missed the consensus 67% of the time.

Take this foe what it worth. All I know is that predicting this number with any reliability is virtually impossible, even for the pros.

Livingston nh 11:44 GMT April 1, 2016
Friday Trading

In this new monetary policy regime Dudley FULLY supported his Fearless Leader but today we hear from voting member Mester -- the tone of disagreement, if any, becomes important

Singapore SC 11:43 GMT April 1, 2016
Tradng the News - US Jobs

Red are you looking for downside test initially in eurusd?

london red 11:34 GMT April 1, 2016
Tradng the News - US Jobs

in addition, euro daily straddle about 60 pips. on dwnside 11365/43 may offer sup on dip and as long as no hourly close below this likely to hit new high of day. further sup at 11275/113

london red 11:31 GMT April 1, 2016
Tradng the News - US Jobs

eurgbp big lt fib 38.2 052/098 8019, which is a little short of top side monthly channel currently 8180. ex that to euro, anything to 115xx though 11576 likely not to be seen before 11260. st euro 11432 then 65/68 then 80/90 and the 115. likely to do stop abv here before fall but allow for mid/upper 115.
usdcad looks like st bottom simi to early feb, kiwi and maybe aussie also looking like due a pullback. cable weak so usd can run here is wants. same yen, seems a bit out of steam and could try 114/115 again. euro not looking weak yeat but you know it never gets quite as high as you expects and turns lower for no given reason so pays to watch out near top of range.
we have started the new quarter and a lot of pairs came in at lows/highs. monthly candles will need to be backfilled in part, in the majority of cases hence caution in chasing established soft usd trend here. any rebound will be in terms of monthly candles and could easily be a couple or few figures without damaging underlying trends.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 11:24 GMT April 1, 2016
Tradng the News - US Jobs

For those who did not take up my offer to view my video Using Crosses to Trade Spot FX, you missed out as today is a prime example of what I illustrated.

The offer still stands and you can request it by EMAIL

Livingston nh 11:23 GMT April 1, 2016
Tradng the News - US Jobs

For the past few years NFP has been important to markets as a FED response indicator -- But the past six months inflation moved to the top of the list for Fed response --on Tuesday Yellen put inflation in the bag w/ NFP

So we're back to NFP as a GDP economic indicator -- a good number, 225k+ won't affect bonds because rate hikes are off the table but might help STOX and maybe WTI s/t -- a bad number, 145k will pressure both and the USD // even outsized earnings can't move things much beyond an initial pop because Yellen has moved on

Plug factor for NFP is usually lowest than of 3 mo following January so maybe 90k - NFP + 175k, Unempl rate 4.8% and earnings +0.2%
---- we'll see

Livingston nh 10:52 GMT April 1, 2016
Billions in Treasuries for Window Dressing

Thanx CB

Israel Dil 10:43 GMT April 1, 2016
Tradng the News - US Jobs

Sell EURUSD
Entry: +++1.14 Target: 1.06/0.98 Stop: +1.155x

perfect market sentiment to leave +95% of traders shocked with mouths open...


MM

GVI Forex john bland 10:41 GMT April 1, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

explosion might be a gas line

GVI Forex john bland 10:37 GMT April 1, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

Reports of an explosion in Paris. Unconfirmed and no details.

-- TTN

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 10:37 GMT April 1, 2016
Tradng the News - US Jobs
Reply   
Dollar heading into the jobs report on a mixed note with EUR in demand vs. others such as GBP and CAD as markets start the new quarter in a risk off mood

I posted my thoughts in my jobs preview. Other comments and strategies welcomed so join in the discussion.

GVI Forex john bland 10:01 GMT April 1, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

I would not trust Mr Sakurai. It appears the BOJ has already been trying to put a floor under USDJPY around current levels.

Paris ib 09:46 GMT April 1, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

Agreeing with Yellen then? All we need is Draghi to come out now and say yes well the Euro is not too strong and we have one voice sanctioning a weaker USD or at least admitting to the inevitability of a weaker USD (depending on your point of view I guess).

GVI Forex john bland 09:44 GMT April 1, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

BOJ's Sakurai
-- USDJPY 80 would be too weak
-- "JPY is not so strong"
-- Cannot guarantee 2% inflation in five years dye to various uncertainties
-- BOJ policy exit far in future

Paris ib 09:27 GMT April 1, 2016
Pound in serious trouble

JP - ok so read GBP at risk of devaluation. Same difference.

GVI Forex john bland 09:16 GMT April 1, 2016
Friday Trading


Trading Themes --

  • Manufacturing PMIs from the Eurozone. UK and Japan (plus Tankan Survey) should not do much to allay Chair Yellen concerns about "global headwinds". If she is waiting for a pick up in demand from abroad, it does not appear that such a change is at hand yet. This could temper a market response to a strong U.S. employment report if it materializes today.

  • The Major focus for trading today is the March employment report. The spotlight is on U.S. Job creation, average hourly earnings and some other key metrics. No progress on the economy (or inflation) is expected until wages start to rise. The data are unlikely to impact the April Fed policy decision but most certainly could impact the value of the USD.

  • The new Fed policy of gradual rate hikes should continue to be supportive of equities because it is an aggressive pro-growth posture. We are wary that the Fed might be inflating an equity bubble.

Mtl JP 09:13 GMT April 1, 2016
Pound in serious trouble

serious trouble shmable
think of it as trading opportunity with two sided risk:
- getting filthy rich opp OR
- getting plucked

Paris ib 08:57 GMT April 1, 2016
Pound in serious trouble

Don't know why you think a current account deficit is a red herring. Running a large - or in this case record - current account deficit is usually a precursor to a sharp currency adjustment. That is: a sharp devaluation. At the very least it leaves the country in question vulnerable to any loss of confidence by foreign investors. In the case of the UK the BREXIT issue is the catalyst for the change in risk perception. If they stay we could have a GBP recovery but we are some way away from knowing how the vote will go.

GVI Forex john bland 08:35 GMT April 1, 2016
BREAKING NEWS: U.K. Manufacturing PMI Gains

UK PMIs display a clear downward drift...

GVI Forex Blog 08:33 GMT April 1, 2016
BREAKING NEWS: U.K. Manufacturing PMI Gains
Reply   

Manufacturing PMI March 2016

U.K. Manufacturing PMI misses street forecasts but gains.

BREAKING NEWS: U.K. Manufacturing PMI Gains

GVI Forex john bland 08:30 GMT April 1, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

Manufacturing PMI March 2016

U.K. Charts







-- NEWS ALERT --

51.0 vs. 51.2 exp. vs. 50.8 (r ) prev.





TTN: Live News Special Offer

nw kw 08:20 GMT April 1, 2016
BREAKING NEWS: Eurozone Final Manufacturing PMIs Better

eur can or risk 1.175

GVI Forex john bland 08:09 GMT April 1, 2016
BREAKING NEWS: Eurozone Final Manufacturing PMIs Better

Look at the chart. EZ PMIs running flat...

GVI Forex Blog 08:07 GMT April 1, 2016
BREAKING NEWS: Eurozone Final Manufacturing PMIs Better
Reply   

Final MFG PMI March 2016
EZ, GE and FR final Mfg PMIs. Data revised up slightly, but still about flat.

BREAKING NEWS: Eurozone Final Manufacturing PMIs Better

GVI Forex john bland 08:01 GMT April 1, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

Final MFG PMI March 2016





ALERT

EZ- Final MFG PMI
51.6 vs. 51.4 exp. vs. 51.4 (flash)
France
49.6 vs. 49.6 exp. vs. 49.6 (flash)
Germany
50.7 vs. 50.4 exp. vs.50.4 (flash)


Markit PMI Press Release



TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Forex john bland 07:33 GMT April 1, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

Swiss PMI improves to 53.2 from 51.6


TTN: Live News Special Offer

HK Kwun 07:23 GMT April 1, 2016
1225-28 is support today
Reply   
Buy Gold
Entry: 1233 Target: Stop: 1223

buy now

GVI Forex john bland 07:18 GMT April 1, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

EARLIER; BOJ Tankan Survey. Slowing Economic Prospects. Large Manufacturers fall from 12 to 6. June forecasted at 3


GVI Forex john bland 07:08 GMT April 1, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

Earlier: China March PMIs improve -- NBs 50.2 vs 49.0, Caixin 49.7 vs 51.6



GVI Forex john bland 07:06 GMT April 1, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

Final March Japan PMI steady at 49.1 vs flash.


GVI Forex john bland 07:05 GMT April 1, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

Australian March PMI 58.1 vs 53.5 in Feb.


HK Kwun 06:36 GMT April 1, 2016
1240 is resistance

Sell Gold
Entry: 1234 Target: Stop: 1234

closed at entry, no luck

GVI Forex Blog 05:45 GMT April 1, 2016
Technical Major Oveerview Video April 1st 2016
Reply   

 

Technical run through of the major currency pairs for the coming trading day from professional firm in the City of London

Technical Major Oveerview Video April 1st 2016

dc CB 04:06 GMT April 1, 2016
I heard the Grifter say

Many, even the brightest and experienced investors, believe central banks and/or their agents, have been manipulating equity markets for the past nearly eight years.

Japan for example makes no bones about buying domestic shares on the open market. The Swiss Central Bank has also admitted doing likewise.

There are others including scattered European member ECB banks and the ECB indirectly.

Also central banks have been steady buyers of other central bank’s equity markets.

And, so it goes.

Today it was revealed by an article in Reuters that some state owned companies have recently purchased over $4 billion of stock in Chinese markets. They have been acting as agents on behalf of the government to support local stock markets.

Why should you care? This manipulation of markets renders them broken and illegitimate from a free market view. It also means investors just become shills in rigged game.

It’s disgusting.

So you’d think I’m upset about current central bank policy experiments? Well, I am, yet I persevere.

The tape is all a technician needs to follow ultimately. Fundamentals make you nothing currently.

Central Banks Globally Manipulate Markets Dave's ETF Digest

Hong Kong HK 03:12 GMT April 1, 2016
AceTrader Apr 1: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (EUR/USD)
Reply   
01 Apr 2016 02:19GMT

EUR/USD - ...... Although euro continued its recent winning streak n rose to a fresh 4-1/2 month peak at 1.1412 in New York morning after data showed that inflation in euro zone improved in March, release of upbeat U.S. Chicago PMI knocked price down to 1.1375 later in New York session.
Euro retreated again after a brief gain to 1.1389 at Asian open and edged lower to 1.1373.

Today's focus for the single currency will be on the release of a slew of Manufacturing PMIs from Markit, a leading market research company, for euro zone n its member countries in European morning, theses includes Switzerland, France, Italy and Germany.
In addition, euro zone will release its unemployment rate for February at 09:00GMT.

At present, bids are reported at 1.1350-40 and then 1.1320-00 area with stops below there.
On the upside offers are noted at 1.1380-90 and then near 1.1400 with stops building above 1.1420.

dc CB 02:41 GMT April 1, 2016
The Next Clinton Presidency

Hillary On Area 51 Secrets: 'I Think We Ought To Share It With The Public'

"Hillary Clinton says barring any national security risk, she would like to open up the government files on Area 51 to the public if she is elected president. "I would like us to go into those files and hopefully make as much of that public as possible," she told Jimmy Kimmel Thursday night on his late night ABC talk show. "If there's nothing there, let's tell people there's nothing there." When Kimmel followed up by asking what she would do if she discovered there was actually something alarming in the files, Clinton replied: "Well, if there is something there, unless it's a threat to national security, I think we ought to share it with the public.

Dillon AL 02:21 GMT April 1, 2016
Nikkei



not sure I see the correlation

Phoenix Sun 02:01 GMT April 1, 2016
Nikkei

Lower stocks lower usd/jpy risk off???????

Tokyo TE 01:49 GMT April 1, 2016
Nikkei
Reply   
Down sharply

dc CB 01:35 GMT April 1, 2016
Billions in Treasuries for Window Dressing

that was THEN

today, with the Buttonwood SPV, The Chinese gov entities can intervene and Buy Stocks.

Whot comes around, goes around.

We are not communists...said those on the Hollywood Black List....little did they know how convoluted it would become.....no one would watch that movie, even if one of them wrote that script.

Buttonwood Agreement, 1792

dc CB 01:24 GMT April 1, 2016
Billions in Treasuries for Window Dressing

Google: Buttonwood SPV

HK [email protected] 01:04 GMT April 1, 2016
love is in the air, congratulations [email protected]




Class jewelry! A very expensive beauty-bride, but I shall not spend such an amount on one lady.
Probably you can lay half Moscow beauties for this amount.

dc CB 00:28 GMT April 1, 2016
Billions in Treasuries for Window Dressing



PS plus the real estate and housing and associated boom cycle businesses, that are going bust, where is was boom in the drill drill here in the US(N.Dakota, Texas) and the tar sands in Canada. They were putting up housing like crazy.

All were holding breath hoping for $50-60 to come back.

/////////////
Grifter Yellen sings the Great White North Theme song

dc CB 00:18 GMT April 1, 2016
Billions in Treasuries for Window Dressing

nh, the Treas shortage is def due to the FED owning most of them.

as far as GC, I'd point to energy loans going teats up.

 




Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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