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Forex Forum Archive for 04/13/2016

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NY JM 23:21 GMT April 13, 2016
Thursday Trade
Reply   
For those Fibo followers, 1.1267(low) = 61.8% of 1.1144-1.1465. Little otherwise between 1.12-1.13

GVI Forex john bland 20:52 GMT April 13, 2016
Don't Fight The Fed

EURUSD vs. current Fed Funds bias suggesting the odds for a rate hike before year-end is going to be rising. Lets see how the sentiment relationship pans out.

GVI Forex Blog 19:35 GMT April 13, 2016
CHART POINTS: Free Forex Database
Reply   



Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format

CHART POINTS: Free Forex Database

Livingston nh 19:20 GMT April 13, 2016
GVI Data Calendar for 14 April 2016

CPI - retail sales showed a 0.9% increase in gasoline (11% annualized) - how much of that was price ?? -- medical was up 0.5% in Jan and Feb - will it be a Q1 trifecta? -- and RENTS (like food and energy, this should be dismissed)

BUT it's just an exercise because the WHITE QUEEN is in charge here in Wonderland

GVI Forex Blog 19:11 GMT April 13, 2016
GVI Data Calendar for 14 April 2016
Reply   

April 13, 2016 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Thursday, April 14, 2016.

    • Far East: AU- Employment
    • Europe: EZ- final HICP, GB- Bank of England Decision
    • North America: US- Weekly Jobless, CPI, Natural Gas, 30-yr Auction, TIC flows

    WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:

    14-APR THURSDAY
    00:30 AU- Employment
    11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
    12:30 US- CPI
    15-APR FRIDAY
    14:00 US- University of Michigan Survey (prelim)


     

    GVI Data Calendar for 14 April 2016

SaaR KaL 18:59 GMT April 13, 2016
Buying GBPUSD with dips

Oil...staying long till at least 44.5

EURCAD Shorts till at least 1.4321

SaaR KaL 18:53 GMT April 13, 2016
Buying GBPUSD with dips
Reply   
Below 1.4180
for april/20th tgt
buying till 1.4040

GBP/USD(Close) 1.42497
High Low
Average 1.4335 1.4186
PI 1 1.4403 1.4116
PI 2 1.4472 1.4046
4/20/2016 1.465 1.4228 ---> TGT range

GVI Forex john bland 18:05 GMT April 13, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

U.S. Fed Beige Book

U.S. Data Charts




NEWS ALERT
-- Economic activity expanded in most districts
-- Most reported modest growth
-- expectations for future mfg expansion mixed
-- Residential real estate strengthened
- prices increased modestly in most districts


TTN: Live News Special Offer

nw kw 17:51 GMT April 13, 2016
Don't Fight The Fed

ya right oil cant fight resistance pivot well not in rush. compared to Russell.

nw kw 17:32 GMT April 13, 2016
Don't Fight The Fed

just restocking run for china so copper head fake in time. Than we have the bag of bad investments again.

nw kw 17:29 GMT April 13, 2016
Don't Fight The Fed

see fed on weed its all gibberish just different week. but strong usa, in bonds in time from fake oil price for cargass.

nw kw 17:18 GMT April 13, 2016
Don't Fight The Fed

employed people in Australia last munth thay liyed it was a sell aud so xaud rang at support gives it leeway for soft aud so long gbpaud.

nw kw 17:04 GMT April 13, 2016
Don't Fight The Fed

cad has oil and ngas deals this month and cad lumber exports boming, has new market from TP trade deal, cad GDP will outperform usa.

nw kw 16:56 GMT April 13, 2016
Don't Fight The Fed

is swiss going long s/p awaiting chf/jpy to indicate if jpy support is in for chart can free fall but jpy can start fx moves upsetting china, what do you see, and gbpcad still dropping.

GVI Forex john bland 16:25 GMT April 13, 2016
Don't Fight The Fed

Looking at our exclusive funds futures sentiment indicator, it is looking to me like the decline in EURUSD might be getting a bit ahead of Fed Fund Futures expectations.

GVI Forex john bland 15:52 GMT April 13, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

nh- the New York Fed must not think much of the Atlanta Fed effort? Why set up a competing forecast within the same organization?

GVI Forex Blog 15:40 GMT April 13, 2016
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Atlanta Fed GDPNow Latest forecast: 0.3 percent
Reply   
Latest forecast: 0.3 percent — April 13, 2016

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2016 is 0.3 percent on April 13, up from 0.1 percent on April 8. After this morning's retail sales report from the U.S. Bureau of the Census, the forecast for first-quarter real consumer spending growth increased from 1.6 percent to 1.8 percent.

The next GDPNow update is Tuesday, April 19. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a full list of upcoming releases.


Source: Atlanta Fed

BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Atlanta Fed GDPNow Latest forecast: 0.3 percent

GVI Forex john bland 15:16 GMT April 13, 2016
Wednesday Trade

I posted this chart (smoothed MFG PMIs) over the weekend. Unlike the others, it pointed to an improving AUD (brown), CAD (green) and USD (blue). These moves can happen quickly or gradually over time.

Cape May jb 15:00 GMT April 13, 2016
Wednesday Trade

USDJPY trading higher starting to follow S&P. Looks like the two are following one another. Higher oil supporting S&P.

GVI Forex john bland 14:31 GMT April 13, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

US EIA Weekly Inventories

U.S. Data Charts






NEWS ALERT
Crude Oil: +6.600 vs. +1.850 exp vs. -4.900 prev.
Gasoline: -4.200 vs. +1.400 vs. +1.400 prev.
Distillates: + 0.240 vs. +0.390 exp vs. +1.800 prev.
Cap/Util: 89.2% vs. 91.40% prev.




Weekly Petroleum Status

Report



TTN: Live News Special Offer

Livingston nh 14:20 GMT April 13, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

This week we have a new entrant in the GDP NOW to tell us where we stand (more generally useless info) - the NY Fed is adding its own version to Atlanta Fed and other private economists EXPERT expectations

GVI Forex john bland 14:01 GMT April 13, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

U.S. Business Inventories February 2016

U.S. Data Charts




ALERT
-0.10% vs. +0.10% exp. vs. +0.10% (r ) prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer



Direct links to primary data sources

GVI Forex john bland 14:00 GMT April 13, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

April 2016 Bank of Canada Policy Decision






ALERT

target unchanged at 0.50%


RELEASE: Bank of Canada




TTN: Live News Special Offer

London Chris 13:54 GMT April 13, 2016
Wednesday's Trade

Where are the dollar bulls?

GVI Forex john bland 13:51 GMT April 13, 2016
Wednesday's Trade

This is looking like an equity driven move in EURUSD. Equity purchases are often funded in the "cheap" currencies, such as the EURUSD and USDJPY.

GVI Forex Blog 12:44 GMT April 13, 2016
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Retail Sales Weak
Reply   

U.S. Advance Retail Sales March 2016

U.S. March Retail Sales miss estimates

BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Retail Sales Weak

GVI Forex john bland 12:33 GMT April 13, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

U.S. PPI March 2016

U.S. Data Charts




NEWS ALERT
Headline: -0.10% vs. -0.20% exp. vs. +0.10% (r. ) prev.
Core: -0.10% vs. +0.10% exp. vs. +0.40% (r. ) prev.


RELEASE: Producer Price Index


TTN: Live News Special Offer


GVI Forex john bland 12:32 GMT April 13, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

Big miss in Retail Sales

GVI Forex john bland 12:32 GMT April 13, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

U.S. Advance Retail Sales March 2016

U.S. Data Charts




ALERT
-0.30% vs. +0.10% exp. vs. -0.10% (r 0.0% )

x-autos & gas +0.10% vs. +0.30% exp. vs. +0.30% (r 0.0% )



TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 12:14 GMT April 13, 2016
Wednesday's Trade

From GVI Forex

Wednesday Trading
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 11:55 GMT 04/13/2016 - My Profile
EURUSD: 1.1301

Very little between 1.12-1.13 with 1.1145-55 the key support area so no obvious levels to go after other than the LOD.

1.1267 = 61.8% of 1.1144-1.1465

HK [email protected] 12:00 GMT April 13, 2016
BREAKING NEWS


It all depends how you look at it: Beating lowered expectations of analysts(less worse than expected), or real drop in profits.


JPMorgan profit hurt by drop in investment banking revenue


JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM.N), the biggest U.S. bank by assets, reported a 6.7 percent drop in quarterly profit as costs to cover possible sour loans to troubled shale oil companies rose and revenue from trading and investment banking declined.

However, both earnings per share and revenue beat analysts' lowered expectations.

The bank's net income fell to $5.52 billion in the first quarter ended March 31, from $5.91 billion a year earlier. On a per-share basis, earnings fell to $1.35 from $1.45.

Analysts had expected earnings of $1.26 per share, according to Thomson Reuters

LINK

Oslo MF 11:45 GMT April 13, 2016
Wednesday's Trade

Can someone suggest eur/usd and usd/jpy tagets?

GVI Forex john bland 10:42 GMT April 13, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

Headline JPM earnings beat
$1.35 vs $1.26 est

Source: TTN

PAR 10:34 GMT April 13, 2016
Wednesday's Trade

Higher oil prices > higher retail sales.

SaaR KaL 10:28 GMT April 13, 2016
Trades

Next week close
4/20/2016 50.9059 43.6620

this baby is north bad azz

SaaR KaL 10:26 GMT April 13, 2016
Trades

If you are a long term trader
I suggest you look Oil
Nov Close Mini is 54

USOil(Close) 41.63
11/2/2016 77.1790 54.8538

GVI Forex john bland 10:22 GMT April 13, 2016
Wednesday's Trade

Retail Sales Data on the U.S. open are always an important report because the economy typically is driven by the consumer. Nevertheless, these figures can be volatile.

GVI Forex john bland 10:11 GMT April 13, 2016
Wednesday Trading


WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:

13-APR WEDNESDAY
12:30 US- Retail Sales
14:00 CA- Bank Of Canada Decision
14:30 US- EIA Crude
18:00 US- Beige Book
14-APR THURSDAY
00:30 AU- Employment
11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
12:30 US- CPI
15-APR FRIDAY
14:00 US- University of Michigan Survey (prelim)



Trading Themes --
  • The central focus of the markets continues to be on oil prices. The major event at hand is the OPEC meeting this weekend at Doha. There have been reports that Russia and Saudi Arabia have already come to an agreement to cap oil production no matter what Iran does. However, speculation about a production cut has been knocked down by the Saudi Oil Minister. The global economy will remain over-supplied after the meeting.

  • Higher oil prices recently have given equity markets a boost due to expected better earnings in the energy sector. The USDJPY is benefiting from higher equity prices due to the close correlation between these markets. Traders are also sensitive to recent threats by Japanese authorities to intervene to contain the strength of the currency. Some say Japan has already been in covertly.

  • Today China reported a slight improvement in its monthly trade surplus. Net exports improved as well. This would be seen a positive omen for the global economy if it persisted.

SaaR KaL 10:04 GMT April 13, 2016
euro

No way
I suggest you short it
from above 1.1392 to 1.1420
tgt 1.100 in a month or so


EUR/USD(Close) 1.13082
High Low
Average 1.1392 1.1288
PI 1 1.1431 1.1249
PI 2 1.1471 1.1210
4/20/2016 1.1344 1.1089

GVI Forex john bland 09:36 GMT April 13, 2016
Dont Fight The Fed

The Fed Funds rate BIAS is higher at this hour. This is bullish USD and bearish EURUSD today.

perth wtr 09:31 GMT April 13, 2016
euro
Reply   
euro can hold 1.13 for 1.15 and 1.17?

GVI Forex john bland 09:12 GMT April 13, 2016
Wednesday's Trade

Equities Risk ON
DAX +206
DJ +86
SP+11

10-yr
US 1.787% +1.4
DE 0.150% -1.2
GB 1.428% +0.3
JP -0.075% +1.9

wti $41.58 -0.59

EUR crosses mixed to lower (up slightly vs JPY and CHF)
USD mostly up

SaaR KaL 09:05 GMT April 13, 2016
Wednesday's Trade

I will long USDJPY Lower then
107.4067 to 105.7879

Next week range
112.2245 107.8618

GVI Forex john bland 09:03 GMT April 13, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

Eurozone Industrial Output February 2016

EZ and German Charts




NEWS ALERT
mm: -0.80% vs. -0.70% exp. vs. +2.10% (r +1.90%)prev.
yy: +0.80% vs. +1.30% exp. vs.+2.80% (r+2.90%) prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

Hk Li 08:59 GMT April 13, 2016
Wednesday's Trade

Anyone long usd?

GVI Forex Blog 08:16 GMT April 13, 2016
BREAKING NEWS: China Trade Improves
Reply   

March 2016 China Trade USDb


EARLIER China Trade surplus in line. y/y exports gain by +11.5% y/y.

BREAKING NEWS: China Trade Improves

SaaR KaL 08:12 GMT April 13, 2016
Trades

EURCAD bearish
1.4229 1.3601

EURAUD as well
1.4458 1.3857

T+7 days ranges

GVI Forex john bland 08:10 GMT April 13, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

I was not aware of anyone expecting a production cut.

SaaR KaL 08:09 GMT April 13, 2016
Trades
Reply   
Very Bullish AUDUSD Oil and NZDUSD for a week
One week range Audusd 0.816 0.7877
Oil 50.9842 43.6812
NZDUSD 0.7304 0.7057

USDCAD very bearish
1.2501 1.2023

GVI Forex john bland 08:09 GMT April 13, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

Saudi Oil Official rules out production cut.

GVI Forex john bland 08:08 GMT April 13, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

March 2016 China Trade USDb





- Earlier NEWS --
+29.86 vs. +34.95b exp. vs. +32.6b prev.
Exports (y/y): +11.5% vs. +2.5% exp. vs. -24.5% prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer




manila tom 05:37 GMT April 13, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

JP, audusd looks trending up nicely, a bit overbought s/t, do you see it being buy on pullbacks?

Mtl JP 04:05 GMT April 13, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

SPOKANE, Wash. – The amount of money spent on legal marijuana sales in Spokane County last year was larger than the retail sales of wine, bread or milk.

Retail Sales Report according to sales numbers from the Washington Liquor and Cannabis Board and a survey of household expenses conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau

Mtl JP 03:26 GMT April 13, 2016
Wednesday's Trade

cretin alert

...“If these risks - slowdown in China and other emerging economies, the impact of the U.S. monetary policy on the financial markets and European debt problems - materialize, I think that the bank should implement additional monetary easing without any hesitation,” ... Harada

11:13 Bank of Japan ready to ease monetary policy if needed, official says - MarketWatch

Hong HK 03:14 GMT April 13, 2016
AceTrader Apr 13: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
Reply   
Update Time: 13 Apr 2016 03:03 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1370
Despite euro's brief rally above last week's top at 1.1454 to a fresh 5-1/2 month peak at 1.1465 in Europe on Tuesday, subsequent intra-day sharp selloff to 1.1336 in New York morning on long-liquidation suggests a temporary top has been made and consolidation with downside bias is seen, however, reckon support at 1.1283 would hold and yield rebound later.

On the upside, only a firm breach of 1.1465 would indicate MT uptrend has resumed and extend gain to 1.1495 and then 1.1512 before correction occurs.

SF WM 01:33 GMT April 13, 2016
Wednesday's Trade

usd/JPY to 110??

Mtl JP 00:20 GMT April 13, 2016
Tuesday Trading

how amazing / wild story is this

..."the Fed has advised banks to cover up major energy-related"...

Dear Dallas Fed, Any Comment?

 




Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
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AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
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