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Forex Forum Archive for 04/17/2016

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Sydney ACC 23:36 GMT April 17, 2016
Saudi-Iran tensions scupper deal to freeze oil output

With 25 minutes until ASX openeing BHP price indicating down AUD0.53 or 2.75%.

dc CB 23:00 GMT April 17, 2016
Saudi-Iran tensions scupper deal to freeze oil output

fred hickey

No oil freeze deal.Yet the Feb 11 stock rally was kicked off on news of an agreement&propelled higher on weekly basis on bogus rumors since.

GVI Forex john bland 22:57 GMT April 17, 2016

Crude $39.34 -2.37 (Range $39.57-39.02)

GVI Forex Blog 22:53 GMT April 17, 2016
NZ CPI deflation.


dc CB 22:50 GMT April 17, 2016
The Ring of Fire coming to life...not good

Ecuador — Ecuadorans scrambled Sunday to rescue survivors of a 7.8-magnitude earthquake that killed at least 235 people, collapsed buildings and buckled roads along the country’s Pacific Coast.

The quake, which struck just before 7 p.m. Saturday

Ecuador searches for quake survivors as death toll rises

dc CB 22:49 GMT April 17, 2016
The Ring of Fire coming to life...not good
another quake on the other edge.

dc CB 22:49 GMT April 17, 2016
The Ring of Fire coming to life...not good
another quake on the other edge.

GVI Forex john bland 22:45 GMT April 17, 2016

New Zealand 1Q16 CPI

-- Alert --

QQ: +0.10% vs. +0.10% exp. vs. -0.50% prev.
YY: +0.10% vs. +0.40% exp. vs. +0.10% prev.

TTN: Live News Special Offer

dc CB 22:41 GMT April 17, 2016
Monday Trading

as of friday's close with Prelim Vol and OI

still 99,500 contracts in to soon to expire May contract


dc CB 22:37 GMT April 17, 2016
Saudi-Iran tensions scupper deal to freeze oil output


1. No freeze
2. Iran unleashes export armada with 29MM bls
3. Contango collapse means 31mm bls coming onshore

dc CB 22:26 GMT April 17, 2016
Treasuries next?

Mtl JP 19:53 GMT
Jim Grant: "Make America Solvent Again"

Apparently the Wash(BEZOS)Post thinks quite the opposite.
So much so it printed 2 yes TWO columns.

1) A guide to one of the most sensational claims Time magazine has ever made

link to the second.

This is the worst argument about the national debt you’ll ever find

GVI Forex john bland 22:03 GMT April 17, 2016

Newest Brexit Poll
45% remain in EU
38% leave


Sydney ACC 21:33 GMT April 17, 2016
Monday Trading

Sorry AUD/USD and USD/CAD.

Mtl JP 21:21 GMT April 17, 2016
Monday Trading

ACC 21:15 how do u have AUD/USD and CAD/USD in the same account ?

GVI Forex 21:18 GMT April 17, 2016
Saudi-Iran tensions scupper deal to freeze oil output

"A deal to freeze oil output by OPEC and non-OPEC producers fell apart on Sunday after Saudi Arabia demanded that Iran join in despite calls on Riyadh to save the agreement and help prop up crude prices.

The development will revive oil industry fears that major producers are embarking again on a battle for market share, especially after Riyadh threatened to raise output steeply if no freeze deal were reached."

Sydney ACC 21:15 GMT April 17, 2016
Monday Trading

What surprised me were the afternoon rallies in AUD/USD and CAD/USD in face of such pessimism surrounding an agreement to freeze production.

Mtl JP 21:09 GMT April 17, 2016
Monday Trading


me too

GVI Forex john bland 21:03 GMT April 17, 2016
Monday Trading

USD CAD corrected wrong big figure changed 1.2944

GVI Forex john bland 21:01 GMT April 17, 2016
Monday Trading

I have my sources!

GVI Forex john bland 21:00 GMT April 17, 2016
Monday Trading

USDCAD 1.2927 +111
AUDUSD .7658 -61

Mtl JP 20:53 GMT April 17, 2016
Monday Trading

john where do u get the early numbers from - who is trading ?
expecting some gaps in audusd / usdcad at Asia open in less than 10 mins

GVI Forex john bland 20:39 GMT April 17, 2016
Monday Trading
EURUSD 1.1305 +22
USDJPY 108.23 -51
GBPUSD 1.4210 +16

nw kw 20:39 GMT April 17, 2016
Treasuries next?

why cant parents find cheaper dippers up 15. in few years so what cheap oil still not priced in and add tariffs to soders oil?

Mtl JP 19:53 GMT April 17, 2016
Treasuries next?

your surprise at own lack of imagination is impressive lol

maybe consider

Jim Grant: "Make America Solvent Again"

Livingston nh 18:51 GMT April 17, 2016
Treasuries next?

John - your point about the buyer of first resort makes most of the deficit/current account/debt disaster all last century worries -- the logical culmination of Nixon's spike into the heart of Bretton Woods

A Brave New World, President Sanders

Livingston nh 18:43 GMT April 17, 2016
Oil freeze deal faces trouble as Saudi-Iran tensions spike

"Negotiations between 16 oil producers in Doha ended without any agreement on limiting supplies, a diplomatic failure that threatens to renew the rout in prices." BBRG 10 mins ago

Almost as shocking as Panama Shell Company disclosures - Shocked - "your winnings, sir"

AT least the squawkers juiced the price over $40 for some more shorts -- maybe it really is ALGO's that the squawkers are gaming

GVI Forex john bland 18:41 GMT April 17, 2016
OPEC/non-OPEC Meeting ends with no agreement reached REPORT

Mtl JP 13:28 GMT April 17, 2016
Trade Off The Cretins Corner

To collect the benefit of cretins' negarate it took "a ruling announced on Monday, the Netherlands’ consumer financial products watchdog, Kifid, said it had sided with the unnamed holders of the variable interest rate mortgage, who brought the case, rather than with lender Achmea NV.

Writing in Business Spectator last week, commentator Alan Kohler warned that negative interest rate policies (NIRPs) were “beginning to look counter-productive”

from a link I followed from zh

Mortgage borrower to be paid by bank

GVI Forex john bland 13:07 GMT April 17, 2016
Dont Fight The Fed
Fed Funds Sentiment Indicator for Year-End: Not much of a reaction to weak Industrial Production and University of Michigan data on Friday suggests the markets have the timing and magnitude of a rate by the end of the year priced about right. Its hard to figure out how all the Fed voices could have it so consistently wrong!

Bottom-line, this indicator is pointing to a higher EURUSD in the week-ahead. We still still don't know for certain what will come from Doha. It seems like weaker oil prices might in store depending on its outcome. That could always change before trading. If we get lower oil prices on Monday, equities could weaken and the various correlations kick in.

GVI Forex john bland 12:16 GMT April 17, 2016
Treasuries next?

I never thought I would say this, but the Fed could easily buy another tln of treasuries? QE is a blank check?

Mtl JP 12:10 GMT April 17, 2016
Oil Barrel Breakdown

That 30-yr old saudi deputy prince is taking an aim at western banks, with potential tumult of bank loan exposure to oil and gas producers: Canadian banks: $107 billion, European banks $200 billion, U.S. banks $123 billion (according to latest disclosures).

For example, Canadian crap - Western Canadian Select - sells at approximately US$15 discount to WTI.

Sampling of recent bank pooh-pooh bravado of exposure to oil n gas loans:

“When you back out the investment grade, what’s left is a very small portion that is an area of focus, but we’re very comfortable. We do a name-by-name analysis on a regular basis and we’ve got a good handle on this portfolio.”

“We take both the drawn and undrawn commitments into consideration when we perform our stress tests, and believe our exposure is manageable.”

“We do remain very comfortable because our oil and gas exposure is below our peers”

“The vast majority of our clients’ credit profiles are strong and have remained stable over the past year”

“We evaluate the risk on both drawn and undrawn basis. We assume that lines will be drawn under periods of stress. I think our disclosure is fair.”

exposure “low and manageable” declining further comment

GVI Forex 12:04 GMT April 17, 2016
Oil freeze deal faces trouble as Saudi-Iran tensions spike

"But the meeting was postponed after OPEC's de facto leader Saudi Arabia told participants it wanted all OPEC members to take part in the freeze, according to OPEC sources.

Riyadh had earlier insisted on excluding Iran from the talks because Tehran had refused to freeze production, seeking to regain market share after the lifting of Western sanctions against it in January.

With the deal running into trouble, oil ministers in Doha met with the Qatari emir, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani - who was instrumental in promoting output stability in recent months.

But a new draft seen by sources thereafter contained none of the binding points of the previous outline. Ministers are due to start talks at around 1200-1230 GMT (8:00-8:30 am EDT), according to sources."

Sydney ACC 10:55 GMT April 17, 2016
Oil Barrel Breakdown
Great article from WSJ illustrates the actual cost of extracting a barrel of oil and the breakdown of those costs across a number of countries.
Must read!


Mtl JP 10:24 GMT April 17, 2016
Saudi remarks on oil surge test prospects for output freeze

Friday close WTI 40.43; Brent 43.07
Bottom Line Trade Question
which way next $5-10+ bux in crude
- uP
- Down ?

Oil freeze deal faces trouble as Saudi-Iran tensions spike

nw kw 08:13 GMT April 17, 2016
Treasuries next?

big baby has sand in his diaper and playing in internationals he will never under stand, so he shot his own foot off, down than up for oil, for car gas is new cash cow, and eur QE has to build a few trill more tin cans, as usa did and t its peak, so eur can f ussr right off than to bad pudding.
KW, corncake's take on pips.

nw kw 07:58 GMT April 17, 2016
Treasuries next?

eur green teem will in port uas car gas, not stinky fuel to power a crashing VW market, planed hy see market always has bigger plans, sodes cant grade its thick oil so the have hade 2 year war with usa oil undercutting the spread to there advantage, and cad tar sands killed ussr dreams, and cad has no nukes just oil power if needed.

jp- so cad getting oil spending at this depressed times for market see tussle, sand mans head filed with green horns on his head case that going to send sand land in to inner distrust further and cant use oil against us like a f caret.... long refiners.

nw kw 07:34 GMT April 17, 2016
Treasuries next?

jp- jpy hedging s/p must see thermal change and usa will not take soders threat lightly as in the past it adds to full out rage and usa gov let cat out bag for reason to get public reedy for kayos.
bond are cheap so f sand lookers, doom for your big yap for usa will not flinch from threats, but sand man hasn't learnt, Iran oil will come on line at pace or world growth, reported no reason to fear Iran just a green sand mans fear for hes lost all its power for its oil at max out put,,get them f out usa and cad, and dig bigger hole for there no minded plan to diversify out oil but good luck if they play dirty for usa can call them new Cuba. so strong jpy week. gl. kw icorp.

Mtl JP 00:05 GMT April 17, 2016
Saudi remarks on oil surge test prospects for output freeze

john plz see JP 12:26 - how do we position to make maahh-ney off the 30yr-old deputy prince's hot-headed price-war fighting words - is he a real threat or just a spouter ?
Putin is probably cramped over laughing at the theater - a country that is absolutely dependent american weapons supplies is threatening it !


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