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Forex Forum Archive for 04/25/2016

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nw kw 21:28 GMT April 25, 2016
Don't Fight The Fed

looks like in 30y bond cot players are on the move and housing busted can be firm fed,?

GVI Forex john bland 19:44 GMT April 25, 2016
GVI Data Calendar for 26 April 2016

WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:

26-APR TUESDAY
13:45 US- flash Services PMI
14:00 US- CB Consumer Confidence
27-APR WEDNESDAY
00:30 AU- CPI
08:30 GB- GDP
14:30 US- EIA Crude
18:00 US- FOMC Decision
21:00 NZ- RBNZ Decision
23:00 JP- CPI
28-APR THURSDAY
03:00 JP- Bank of Japan
07:55 DE- Employment
12:30 US- GDP
29-APR FRIDAY
JP- Holiday
06:00 DE- Retail Sales
09:00 EZ- flash HICP
12:30 US- Core PCE Deflator
14:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey

GVI Forex Blog 19:37 GMT April 25, 2016
CHART POINTS: Free Forex Database
Reply   



Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format

CHART POINTS: Free Forex Database

Livingston nh 17:29 GMT April 25, 2016
OIL
Reply   
Rising Daily Avgs are clustered between 38 to 40(21dma) so a simple test of the 21 dma will put $3 of pressure on the mkt

nw kw 16:34 GMT April 25, 2016
Don't Fight The Fed

support banks for now.

nw kw 16:31 GMT April 25, 2016
Don't Fight The Fed

looks like in 30y bond, you take on it.

GVI Forex john bland 16:10 GMT April 25, 2016
Dont Fight The Fed

Look at the convergence on this chart. Not only has EURUSD risen, but the odds for a rate hike by the end of the year are up as well. I am not sure what Fed Fund futures traders are reacting to. It still fascinates me how these markets interact with one another.

london red 16:05 GMT April 25, 2016
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off Late In Europe

s&p likely to bounce 2066, they might even frontrun that level by a couple of points.
euro. settled a little below initial res hence the risk of it going a bit higher to the second - you always want a spike/candle reversal otherwise currency pair tends to continue in current direction all things being equal. but even if 89/90 seen, shouldnt do much more as mkt has an eye on fed, stops over 11310 should be safe.

GVI Forex john bland 15:42 GMT April 25, 2016
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off Late In Europe

Equities off to a shaky start for the new week. Look at all the red.

Beijing Laowen 15:17 GMT April 25, 2016
EURUSD

Jay, done. check your email, please.

GVI Forex Meisler 15:04 GMT April 25, 2016
EURUSD

Laowen, can you email me pls

Beijing Laowen 15:00 GMT April 25, 2016
EURUSD

Belgrade Knez 14:39 GMT 04/25/2016
=============

He implies that it is possible. But, as long as it won't go above 1.1310, his setup will still be valid.

dc CB 14:50 GMT April 25, 2016
STOX

While the Bank of Japan’s name is nowhere to be found in regulatory filings on major stock investors, the monetary authority’s exchange-traded fund purchases have made it a top 10 shareholder in about 90 percent of the Nikkei 225 Stock Average, according to estimates compiled by Bloomberg from public data. It’s now a major owner of more Japanese blue-chips than both BlackRock Inc., the world’s largest money manager, and Vanguard Group, which oversees more than $3 trillion.

The Tokyo Whale Is Quietly Buying Up Huge Stakes in Japan Inc.

Livingston nh 14:42 GMT April 25, 2016
STOX
Reply   
Last Monday's post DOHA low is being challenged-- For the last two weeks SPX has been floating off the DOHA induced bounce from 2040 -- last Thursday's still unexplained Treasury sell-off marked a new event and Friday's mid day bounce was the last gasp of DOHA //
The DOHA hot air balloon is deflating - SPX 2065 is the open gap below

FED hot air is up next but that balloon seems to be leaking

Belgrade Knez 14:39 GMT April 25, 2016
EURUSD
Reply   

london red

do you think we could see EURUSD up to 1.1300 before turning down again, please?

thank you.

dc CB 14:38 GMT April 25, 2016
Monday Trading

Wed. there will be no rate hike or really any change to the statement.

THEN the FED MOUTHS will play Ping Pong with speeches and interviews for the the next month and a half.

dc CB 14:36 GMT April 25, 2016
Monday Trading

Dallas Fed: -13.9, Exp.-10.0, Last -13.6

"It is a bad time for manufacturing, agriculture and mining—the only sectors that actually create wealth."

"Most of our clients are reporting slower sales heading into second quarter and expect further slowing into fourth quarter. "

"Customers are really dragging their feet on payments. Terms are 15 to 30 days beyond agreed terms per the purchase order."

"The summer season is the slow season, and we are already planning to go to a 32-hour work week."

HK Kwun 14:22 GMT April 25, 2016
Sell again

Sell Gold
Entry: 1236 Target: Stop: 1242

stopped, wtf

GVI Forex Blog 14:15 GMT April 25, 2016
GVI Data Calendar for 26 April 2016
Reply   

April 25, 2016 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Tuesday, April 26, 2016.

  • Far East: No Major Data
  • Europe: No Major Data
  • North America: US- Durable Goods, Case-Shiller, flash Service PMI, Richmond Fed, CB Consumer Confidence, 5-yr Auction, API

WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:

26-APR TUESDAY
13:45 US- flash Services PMI
14:00 US- CB Consumer Confidence
27-APR WEDNESDAY
00:30 AU- CPI
08:30 GB- GDP
14:30 US- EIA Crude
18:00 US- FOMC Decision
21:00 NZ- RBNZ Decision
23:00 JP- CPI
28-APR THURSDAY
03:00 JP- Bank of Japan
07:55 DE- Employment
12:30 US- GDP
29-APR FRIDAY
JP- Holiday
06:00 DE- Retail Sales
09:00 EZ- flash HICP
12:30 US- Core PCE Deflator
14:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey

GVI Data Calendar for 26 April 2016

GVI Forex john bland 14:12 GMT April 25, 2016
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. New Homes Sales Miss Estimates

Standing back and looking at the New Home Sales (also Starts and Permits), this sector of the Housing market has bee n basically flat for about a year.

GVI Forex Blog 14:08 GMT April 25, 2016
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. New Homes Sales Miss Estimates
Reply   

New Homes Sales. Weaker than forecast. Prior data revised higher.

BREAKING NEWS: U.S. New Homes Sales Miss Estimates

GVI Forex john bland 14:01 GMT April 25, 2016
Monday Trading

New homes sales miss estimates, but prior data revised up.

GVI Forex john bland 14:00 GMT April 25, 2016
Monday Trading


U.S. New Home Sales March 2016



ALERT
511 K vs. 520K exp. vs. 512K (r 519) prev.


New Residential Sales


TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Forex john bland 13:44 GMT April 25, 2016
Monday Trading

from GVI Trading Room

New Homes Sales are due at the top of the hour. An annualized gain of 520,00 is expected in March. For perspective New homes sales peaked out at 1.389 mln in July 2005. We are still well below that level. Recent housing numbers have not been stellar.

This is not a top-tier release, but the algos are likely to trade on it.

GVI Forex Meisler 13:38 GMT April 25, 2016
bearish after last week

Red, good call on USDJPY. My support is within your band at 110.70-75

HK Kwun 12:30 GMT April 25, 2016
Sell again
Reply   
Sell Gold
Entry: 1236 Target: Stop: 1246

just sell

Amman wfakhoury 12:27 GMT April 25, 2016
GBPUSD 1.4520 Confirmed
Reply   

The only one in the world who confirms the next level

14520 confirmed 14475 return

Pasig evan 11:39 GMT April 25, 2016
bearish after last week

GBPUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:

Good call on Gbp Red!

GVI Forex john bland 10:50 GMT April 25, 2016
Dont Fight The Fed

For the record, Fed Funds odds for rate hike are 0% for Wednesday and sub-10% for June.

These are not forecasts, per se. You can actually buy or sell at these prices. So traders are making real prices at these levels.

GVI Forex john bland 10:35 GMT April 25, 2016
Dont Fight The Fed

GVI Exclusive Fed Funds Indicator

As of the end of last week the EURUSD to EURUSD spread was looking "stretched" as I posted over the weekend. I was suggesting that EURUSD would need higher odds for a rate hike this year to fall further. So the two lines have converged partially...

london red 10:19 GMT April 25, 2016
bearish after last week

yen maybe lg 110.83-69 stop under 11058.
cable looks like wants to run stops over prev high just abv 145 then likely they pullback, but should stay supported with lrg imm shorts

london red 10:17 GMT April 25, 2016
bearish after last week

euro. initial res at 70 then 89/90 which was a prev low and hampered trade last wk. stops over 11310 should be safe

HK Kwun 10:13 GMT April 25, 2016
bearish after last week

Sell Gold
Entry: 1234 Target: Stop: 1244

TP at 1232, low volatility

Pasig evan 09:55 GMT April 25, 2016
GBPUSD

GBPUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:

1.4315 is strong support now for more upside?

GVI Forex john bland 09:42 GMT April 25, 2016
Monday Trading

Equities Risk-Off
DAX -88
DJ -48
SP -6

10-yr
US 1.882% -0.7
DE 0.224% -0.8
GB 1.577% -0.4
JP -0.071% +4.8

EUR crosses mixed

WTI $43.12, -0.61

GVI Forex john bland 09:22 GMT April 25, 2016
Monday Trading
Reply   
Trading Themes --

  • Today has seen weaker than foecast IFO Survey data out of Germany. The report reinforces the notion that the global economy might be in the midst of a slowdown. U.S. quarterly earnings data have been disappointing.

  • Some are saying that anti-Brexit comments by President Obama have had an impact on U.K. voters. Some are decrying the interference of the U.S. President on domestic affairs. The GBP is higher as polls have been turning against the referendum.

  • The JPY has gained early in the new week ahead of key Central Bank meetings in the U.S., New Zealand and Japan. There has been chatter about rate cuts by the RBNZ and BOJ. A slew of economic data is always due near monthend. The U.S. is still in the midst of its 1Q16 quarterly earnings period.


  • John M.Bland MBA, CTA,
    co-founder global-View.com


GVI Forex Blog 08:07 GMT April 25, 2016
BREAKING NEWS: German IFO Survey Weaker Than Expected
Reply   

German March IFO Survey broadly weaker than expected.

BREAKING NEWS: German IFO Survey Weaker Than Expected

GVI Forex john bland 08:01 GMT April 25, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

German Ifo weaker than expected across the board

GVI Forex john bland 08:01 GMT April 25, 2016
BREAKING NEWS
Reply   
German IFO Survey April 2016
Global-VIew EZ and German Charts



NEWS ALERT

Climate: 106.6 vs. 107.0 exp. vs. 106.7 prev.
Conditions: 113.2 vs. 113.7 exp. vs. 113.8 prev.
Expectations: 100.4 vs. 100.9 exp. vs. 100.0 prev.


IFO Climate Survey



TTN: Live News Special Offer

london red 07:56 GMT April 25, 2016
bearish after last week

likely to track euro higher initially but not too confident either way for cable. approaching some decent res but supported emotionally by better polls for remain camp over weekend.

Belgrade Knez 07:05 GMT April 25, 2016
bearish after last week


london red

could you please share your view about GBPUSD please?

thank you.

nw kw 06:56 GMT April 25, 2016
bearish after last week

chf and jpy driving with strength separated in gold pack, good guide for day. gl.

nw kw 06:51 GMT April 25, 2016
bearish after last week

lumber red flag cant move awaiting usd kayos.pump ngas so soft usd for now, just to cheap for big fish.

london red 06:46 GMT April 25, 2016
bearish after last week

euro. fade 11265/70. stop ova 11310. tgt 112-11150.

nw kw 06:41 GMT April 25, 2016
bearish after last week

long u/j started

nw kw 06:37 GMT April 25, 2016
bearish after last week

- 20 xauaug support looks to give for trip down than xgbp pulls reversal?

nw kw 06:34 GMT April 25, 2016
bearish after last week

e wave 5 stops in this run /soeted commodities bets take top side copper, smack aud, mxn

HK Kwun 04:07 GMT April 25, 2016
bearish after last week
Reply   
Sell Gold
Entry: 1234 Target: Stop: 1244

sell now

Hong Kong HK 03:31 GMT April 25, 2016
AceTrader Apr 25: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY)
Reply   
25 Apr 2016 02:12GMT

USD/JPY - ...... Although dlr extended Friday's spectacular rally and rose marginally higher above 111.83 (Friday New York) to 111.91 ahead of Asian open today, profit-taking together with intra-day fall in Nikkei knocked price down to 111.15 in Tokyo morning.

Today, U.S. will release the New Home Sales report at 14:00GMT. Market expects the data to be 0.527 mln units in March compare to 0.512 mln units in preceding month.

Lack of follow-through buying n subsequent intra-day weakness in Asia suggests consolidation with mild downside bias would be seen ahead of European open but recent broad-based strength in usd suggests buying on dips in anticipation of another upmove later today is recommended.

At present, initial offers are noted at 111.30-40 and more at 111.50-60 with stops above 111.80, whilst bids are reported at 111.10-00 and then 110.90-70 region with stops below 110.60.

Mtl JP 02:49 GMT April 25, 2016
Sorry small trader, you're hosed not matter what.

ok... lets say "It happens just about every morning at the European Open 3:00AM.

but.... HOW DID THEY EVEN CALCULATE AN INDEX NUMBER ?

I am asking coz I wanna know

 




Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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