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Forex Forum Archive for 05/04/2016

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GVI Forex Jay Meisler 23:11 GMT May 4, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

Tallinn and Haifa can you email me at [email protected]

HK [email protected] 22:38 GMT May 4, 2016
Bye!!!!!!!!
Reply   

John Kasich: 'As I suspend my campaign today, I have renewed faith, deeper faith, that the Lord will show me the way forward and fulfill the purpose of my life'

Tallinn viies 22:18 GMT May 4, 2016
eurusd
Reply   
Enbridge Is Preparing to Shut Pipelines in Alberta
By Natalie Obiko Pearson
(Bloomberg) -- Lines are being shut because of wildfire, Scott Long, emergency official, tells reporters Wed.

Tallinn viies 22:14 GMT May 4, 2016
eurusd
Reply   
another reason to buy wti crude? Im trying to get short. hopefully this headline helps it higher

Oil-Sands Capacity Affected by Alberta Fire May Exceed 1m b/d
By Robert Tuttle
(Bloomberg)

Haifa ac 22:13 GMT May 4, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

ANN Coulter. Sharp as tack!

AND THEN THERE WAS THE ONE

A guy just won the Republican nomination for president by spending no money, hiring no pollsters, running virtually no TV ads, and just saying what he truly believed no matter how many times people told him he couldn't say that.


I always hoped I'd see this once before I died. It's like to going to Mecca, for Americans. Pay attention, because it's the last time we're going to see it in our lifetimes.


For those of you not yet on the Trump Train, I know you don't want to vote for Hillary, but all the pundits have been trying to convince you that Trump's a complete fraud. (That was between their smug assurances that he wouldn't make it out of Iowa.)


It's odd. When Trump launched his campaign by talking about Mexican rapists and the wall, his critics hysterically denounced him, rushing to TV to say he did NOT represent the Republican Party! Only after it became resoundingly clear that large majorities of Americans agreed with Trump did his critics try a new tack: He doesn't believe it!

http://www.anncoulter.com/columns/2016-05-04.html

GVI Forex john bland 21:22 GMT May 4, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

OFFICIAL: John Kasich suspends his Presidential campaign. This was as widely expected.

GVI Forex john bland 20:45 GMT May 4, 2016
Thursday Trading

Convergence!


GVI Forex john bland 20:24 GMT May 4, 2016
Thursday Trading
Reply   


WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:

5-May THURSDAY
JP/CH- Holiday
8:28 GB- SVC PMI
6-May FRIDAY
12:30 CA/US- Employment
12:30 CA- Retail Sales


Trading Themes --
  • The final shoe dropped early Wednesday afternoon in N.Y. when word got out that John Kasich was ending his campaign to become the Republican nominee for President. On Tuesday, Donald Trump had all but secured the Republican nomination to run for President after a decisive victory over Ted Cruz in the State of Indiana.

    In the Democrat race, Bernie Sanders beat Hillary Clinton in the primary, but it appears that Clinton still will be able to limp first across the finish line to become the Democrat candidate. This has not been a strong showing for her. As the Presidential race becomes the focus, markets will pay more attention to the likely policies of top candidates.

  • The U.S. saw mixed data on Wesnesday with the ADP Private payrolls data coming in significantly weaker than expected. On the other hand, U.S. Service PMI's and 1Q16 productivity data were stronger than expected, This was a split decision for the USD which traded sideways for the day. Equities were looking heavy.

  • The Eurozone final April PMI's were revised slightly lower from their flash estimates from a week ago. These data remain lacklustre, but continue to grow. The U.K. April Construction PMI was considerably weaker than expected and weighed on the GBP. The upcoming Brexit vote could be adversely impacting spending decisions in the U.K. Thursday sees the April U.K. Service and the EZ Retail PMIs


  • John M.Bland MBA, CTA,
    co-founder global-View.com


dc CB 19:43 GMT May 4, 2016
SToX

Gundlach - who replaced Gross as the Bond King, at Sohn, the Hedge Fund conference taking place today.

"negative interest rates are the dumbest idea ever"

"seems egregiously overvalued versus other stock markets.... fundamentally, it’s very hard to believe in US stocks

"I predicted oil would make it easily to $ 40 and it did so very comfortably. But now it’s having a very hard time getting to $45. It bounces up a dollar, down a dollar and I think if oil is going back down to $ 38 people are going to be very concerned."

Gundlach Predicts "Trump Will Win", Says "The Federal Reserve Has Basically Given Up"

GVI Forex Blog 19:31 GMT May 4, 2016
CHART POINTS: Free Forex Database
Reply   



Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format

CHART POINTS: Free Forex Database

GVI Forex john bland 19:14 GMT May 4, 2016
GVI Data Calendar for 5 May 2016

WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:

5-May THURSDAY
JP/CH- Holiday
8:28 GB- SVC PMI
6-May FRIDAY
12:30 CA/US- Employment
12:30 CA- Retail Sales

Livingston nh 18:55 GMT May 4, 2016
SToX

Crude looks headed for 39 and that should put pressure on stox into friday -- Stox have been trading on hot air cold air for 2 wks so looking for a theme - maybe oil, maybe USD turn // the gorilla is treasury mkt -- that will spook Yellen & CO. into a hike

dc CB 18:28 GMT May 4, 2016
SToX

trying it now with Crude. Jaming the Close on the NYMEX pit.

london red 18:22 GMT May 4, 2016
SToX

2056 is the one to watch on the close. breaks neck of daily shs, td off mar23 low,with a tgt 2000/2010. with stocks its a q of waiting sometimes a long time for the dip and buying. its a rigged game so not pt complaining just play along and bank.

dc CB 18:03 GMT May 4, 2016
SToX

Algos can't sell, they are triggered/run at the will of the NYFRB aka the PPT aalong with other CB operations....LOL

SToX never go down, it is not permitted.

Livingston nh 17:55 GMT May 4, 2016
SToX

CB - when do Algos sell? // do we need oil @ 40 or treasurys over 1.94 ? // selling begets selling but who goes first?

GVI Forex john bland 17:20 GMT May 4, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

Atlanta Fed GDPNow 2Q16 forecast changed to 1.70% from 1.80%.

Source: TTN

dc CB 17:20 GMT May 4, 2016
SToX
Reply   
time to try for another Algo Run higher.

Jam VIX, Buy USD/JPY, sell Treas Futures, Buy Index futures, SPY, QQQ, DIA.

didn't work post Europe close.

PAR 17:11 GMT May 4, 2016
CRAZY MARIO

The deflationary effect of abolishing the € 500 note never crossed Mario s brain .

Livingston nh 17:09 GMT May 4, 2016
USD/CAD
Reply   
If USD/CAD holds on above 21 dma (declining) it will be the strongest 2 day move in a over a year - the 4hr chart looks explosive as it has taken out rising MAs from 21sma to 144ema

PAR 17:06 GMT May 4, 2016
CRAZY MARIO
Reply   
If Draghi really wants inflation the ECB should start printing €10.000 bills instead of withdrawing the € 500 bills

dc CB 17:05 GMT May 4, 2016
Now remain to see who on the other side: The Nerd or the Bitch.

One would think that it would also spur on Nationalism.
EXIT the EURO.
Just one more bit on top of the "refugees".

Here you go peasants, swallow this, it's good for you. We know best. We are the ECB/EU.

PAR 17:03 GMT May 4, 2016
Now remain to see who on the other side: The Nerd or the Bitch.

Under Draghi ECB is becoming a self destructing institution .

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 17:02 GMT May 4, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

12:54 (JP) Japan PM Abe: had an honest discussion with German Chancellor Merkel about monetary stimlus - comments from Germany - reiterates that we are watching the FX market and will act if necessary; still seeing speculative movement in the FX market

- German Chancellor Merkel: currency competition does not result in economic advantages

**NOTE: 05/02: (JP) Japan PM Abe: Plans to launch a G7 version of his 'three arrows' policy to send a clear message to the world - Japan press

- G7 leaders summit schedule for May 26-27th in Japan - Source TradeTheNews.com

HK [email protected] 16:56 GMT May 4, 2016
Now remain to see who on the other side: The Nerd or the Bitch.


The mafiosos, will begin using gold.

dc CB 16:48 GMT May 4, 2016
Now remain to see who on the other side: The Nerd or the Bitch.


*ECB ENDS PRODUCTION AND ISSUANCE OF €500 BANKNOTE
*ECB SAYS ISSUANCE OF EU500 NOTE TO STOP AROUND THE END OF 2018
*ECB SAYS OTHER EURO BANKNOTES WILL STAY IN PLACE
*ECB: EU500 CAN BE EXCHANGED AT CEN BANKS FOR UNLIMITED TIME

This is what we said in February

In other words, if overnight the €307 billion worth of €500 bills were eliminated, the notional value of the entire amount of European physical currency in circulation would decline by 30% to €700 billion!

And there you have it: while it may not be banning all European cash outright, we are confident the ECB would be delighted if one third of it was to start, while pretending to be fighting financial crime, terrorism, corruption and drug dealers.


That's not all: as Bank of America pointed out, abolishing the €500 note may even end up even weakening the European currency:

... we would expect that abolishing a note that represents almost 30% of the total Euros in circulation would be negative for the currency,

The War On Paper Currency Officially Begins: ECB Ends Production/Issuance Of EU500 Bill

HK [email protected] 16:38 GMT May 4, 2016
Now remain to see who on the other side: The Nerd or the Bitch.



The risk of demonetizing those bills is higher now.

Go to the bank with few millions of 500E$, give your name....and later explain.
Maybe gold can do better; Can't be demonetized.

dc CB 16:35 GMT May 4, 2016
Now remain to see who on the other side: The Nerd or the Bitch.

zerohedge ‏@zerohedge 1m1 minute ago

ECB DECIDES TO END PRODUCTION OF EU500 BANKNOTES

Haifa ac 16:07 GMT May 4, 2016
Trump Alone
Reply   
should be bullish dollar?

HK [email protected] 15:30 GMT May 4, 2016
...with the blue:)
Reply   
.

GVI Forex Blog 15:01 GMT May 4, 2016
GVI Data Calendar for 5 May 2016
Reply   

May 4, 2016 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Wednesday, May 5, 2016.

  • Far East: JP- Holiday, AU- Trade
  • Europe: CH- Holiday, EZ- Retail PMI, GB- Service PMI
  • North America: US- Weekly Jobless, Natural Gas

WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:

5-May THURSDAY
JP/CH- Holiday
8:28 GB- SVC PMI
6-May FRIDAY
12:30 CA/US- Employment
12:30 CA- Retail Sales

GVI Data Calendar for 5 May 2016

GVI Forex john bland 14:56 GMT May 4, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

I think in general that the Services PMI is saying NFP should be trending lower...

GVI Forex john bland 14:54 GMT May 4, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

for those who like to watch the ISM Services Index and NFP.

Warning: nh does not like this chart. He says its apples and oranges! He is correct!


Services Employment PMI vs. NFP. Not perfect by any means but there is a relationship.

GVI Forex john bland 14:47 GMT May 4, 2016
EURUSD

Now that's different. They are royalty ;-)

Paris ib 14:44 GMT May 4, 2016
EURUSD

John - how about 'one EU official'... do you believe what they say? :-)

Beijing Laowen 14:42 GMT May 4, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

GVI Forex john bland 14:39 GMT 05/04/2016
========
Hi John, got it. Thanks for your patience. Cheers.

GVI Forex john bland 14:42 GMT May 4, 2016
EURUSD

We don't trust "ECB Sources". Anybody could be that source.

GVI Forex john bland 14:39 GMT May 4, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

Laowen- the markets tend to look at the changes in these data more in volume than in percentage terms because they tend to fluctuate a lot on a week to week basis. A +/-100% change (or much more) on a week to week basis is typical.

Mtl JP 14:35 GMT May 4, 2016
EURUSD

ECB SOURCES - sounds like a trial kite

Beijing Laowen 14:34 GMT May 4, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

GVI Forex john bland 14:32 GMT 05/04/2016
=========

Hi John, WTI Crude 2.8 vs 1.4, which looks 100% more than expected, is just slightly more? I am a bit confused and your advice is appreciated. Many thanks.

GVI Forex john bland 14:32 GMT May 4, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

Slightly larger build than expected in Crude.

GVI Forex john bland 14:31 GMT May 4, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

US EIA Weekly Inventories

U.S. Data Charts






NEWS ALERT
Crude Oil: +2.800 vs. +1.400 exp vs. +2.000 prev.
Gasoline: +0.500 vs. -0.300 vs. +1.695 prev.
Distillates: -1.300 vs. -0.100 exp vs. +1.695 prev.
Cap/Util: 89.70% vs. 88.10% prev.




Weekly Petroleum Status Report



TTN: Live News Special Offer

Tallinn viies 14:28 GMT May 4, 2016
EURUSD
Reply   
from reuters...
MNSI - **ECB SOURCES: NO DESIRE FOR MORE ACTION BEFORE SEP, IF AT ALL
17:26:46
MNSI - ECB SOURCES LARGELY OPPOSED TO TIER SYSTEM FOR DEPOSIT RATE
17:27:11
MNSI - ECB SOURCE: HELICOPTER MONEY 'STUPID & UNFORTUNATE DISCUSSION'

Mtl JP 14:26 GMT May 4, 2016
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Service PMIs Better

it may take 2-3 more Nigel Jubbs before 1.1470 breaks down

GVI Forex john bland 14:22 GMT May 4, 2016
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Service PMIs Better

Service PMIs beat and give USD a temporarry lift

GVI Forex Blog 14:20 GMT May 4, 2016
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Service PMIs Better
Reply   
ISM Services PMI better than forecast. Markit PMI revised up. Employment PMI better.

BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Service PMIs Better

Mtl JP 14:18 GMT May 4, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

next up risk A category: EIA Crude
at bottom of hour

GVI Forex john bland 14:07 GMT May 4, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

Factory Orders March 2016

U.S. Data Charts





ALERT
+1.1% vs. +0.60% exp. vs. -1.70% (r -1.9%)prev. rev.



TTN: Live News Special Offer


GVI Forex john bland 14:06 GMT May 4, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

U.S. ISM Services PMI April 2016

MORE: U.S. Data Charts





ALERT
55.7 vs. 54.8 exp. vs. 54.5 prev.
Employment sub-component
53.0 vs. 50.3 prev.


RELEASE: ISM Services PMI


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Tallinn viies 13:48 GMT May 4, 2016
eurusd
Reply   
one of the best possible trades today would be sp500.

if you look at the wti crude and sp500 daily charts. then both have made bottoms in mid january and mid february. from there huge uptrend till lasst friday.
today sp500 is moved lower but wti is holding previous week lows and previous day low.

so if todays EIA weekly numbers good (US domestic production lower) and push wti above previous day top then Im going to buy sp500 and run this position until wti at 46,50

GVI Forex john bland 13:45 GMT May 4, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

U.S. Markit final Services PMI April 2016

U.S. Data Charts




ALERT
52.8 vs. 52.4 exp. vs. 52.1 (flash)


Markit PMI Press Release


TTN: Live News Special Offer

Paris ib 13:43 GMT May 4, 2016
The Next Clinton Presidency

Well personally I would be happy to see Trump win but it ain't gonna happen. It's a dog and pony show. Get ready for Hillary.

Mtl JP 13:39 GMT May 4, 2016
The Next Trump Presidency.

China communists are already crapping in their pants at prospect of protectionist President Trump.

HK [email protected] 13:30 GMT May 4, 2016
Will AUD too commit suicide, in sympathy with the CAD$
Reply   

Watching for a slump!

HK [email protected] 13:26 GMT May 4, 2016
The Next Trump Presidency.
Reply   


Donald will not fight for some stupid islands in south China sea, just leave them for China.

He will leave UKR for Putin to deal. No wars; more on business,

Only a Nobel prize Like O. tries to create troubles everywhere before he leaves.

Mtl JP 13:24 GMT May 4, 2016
Wednesday Trading



snp 2044 is of my interest indeed

Livingston nh 13:21 GMT May 4, 2016
Wednesday Trading

jp - Cad "solidly" above declining 21 dma // 55 ema above 1.30 seems a good target

Maybe this week you see SPX 2040

Paris ib 13:20 GMT May 4, 2016
The Next Clinton Presidency

JP I don't. The next war will be fought on financial markets. The Yanks would love a military conflict - they are armed to the teeth - but I don't think that is going to happen.

What it does mean is that the standing of the U.S. and the USD in the world will fall even further. Any attempt to jimmy up more military battlegrounds will only accelerate that process IMVHO.

Paris ib 13:18 GMT May 4, 2016
The Next Clinton Presidency

"The way the political process works is that they give us two of their choices so that we have the illusion that we’re participating in who our leaders are."....

Ted Cruz... and the Ukraine and Monsanto and GMOs

Livingston nh 13:18 GMT May 4, 2016
Wednesday Trading

Thanx - lucky better than smart // STOX may finally see SPX 2040 again but oil not responding yet

Mtl JP 13:16 GMT May 4, 2016
The Next Clinton Presidency

ib 13:14 IF you think it means more war get some bullet and bomb making stocks

Mtl JP 13:15 GMT May 4, 2016
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Trade Gap Narows

focus on future
not the past

Paris ib 13:14 GMT May 4, 2016
The Next Clinton Presidency

So Hillary Clinton is basically a shoe-in for the Presidency. What does that mean? Almost certainly more war. She was front and centre on the attack on Libya. Syria must be in her cross hairs. Russia? China?

Her economic policies are what? She was pro this TTIP thing which, I think, just died.

Bit surprised that the press in Europe only just noticed where that was going. Bet the Chinese didn't.

The TTIP that died

nw kw 13:09 GMT May 4, 2016
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Trade Gap Narows

cad trade to usa as bad 1993?

Paris ib 13:08 GMT May 4, 2016
EURO 500 note

No. It will make it more cumbersome for German banks to accumulate notes - as they have been - but it won't stop them doing it. Pretty soon all the 500 euro notes will be in German bank coffers.

GVI Forex john bland 13:07 GMT May 4, 2016
EURO 500 note

Nope not at all. Forex trading transactions are all settled by electronic transfers.

Belgrade Knez 13:01 GMT May 4, 2016
EURO 500 note
Reply   

Today ECB should vote to stop printing note of 500 euros.

would that at all have impact on currency market?

Mtl JP 12:51 GMT May 4, 2016
Wednesday Trading

nh u becometh an economist / analyst at expense of trader ?
-
keep long usdcad while above 1.2750

GVI Forex john bland 12:45 GMT May 4, 2016
Wednesday Trading

nh-- great call on ADP. You caught it dead on!

Congratulations...

GVI Forex Blog 12:43 GMT May 4, 2016
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Trade Gap Narows
Reply   
U.S. Trade Deficit narrows good for 1Q16 GDP.

BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Trade Gap Narows

nw kw 12:41 GMT May 4, 2016
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. ADP Private Employment Misses

trade for cad in 2 years, gets red flag for usa strength, what is going on?

GVI Forex john bland 12:34 GMT May 4, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

U.S. (USD bn) & Canada (CAD bn) Trade March 2016

U.S. Data Charts




ALERT
-40.4 vs. -45.5 exp. vs. -47.1 (r -47.0) prev.
Canada Trade C$ bln
-3.4 vs. -1.4 exp. vs. -1.90 (r -2.50)prev.

U.S. Balance on Goods and Services

Canadian Trade Balance


TTN: Live News Special Offer

nw kw 12:33 GMT May 4, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

Big Miss in trade for cad in 2 years.

GVI Forex john bland 12:32 GMT May 4, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

U.S. Productivity 1Q16

U.S. Data Charts



   MORE: U.S. Charts

NEWS ALERT

-1.00% vs. -1.40% exp. vs. -2.20% (R ) prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer

Mtl JP 12:28 GMT May 4, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

red I am betting that usd has seen its worst and is turning around

GVI Forex john bland 12:24 GMT May 4, 2016
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. ADP Private Employment Misses

Manually refresh page to update chart below

london red 12:22 GMT May 4, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

for next move watch if dollar losses stick vs yen and euro. if cannot stick euro likely to retest low. if dollar losses stick dollar should slowly get squeezed further as session goes on. adp is bad enough to be a game changer but remember nfp forecasts are now going to be altered so bar will be much lower come friday.

GVI Forex Blog 12:20 GMT May 4, 2016
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. ADP Private Employment Misses
Reply   
ADP data weaker than expected.

U.S. Data Charts

Click on chart for 15-yr history


BREAKING NEWS: U.S. ADP Private Employment Misses

GVI Forex john bland 12:15 GMT May 4, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

Big Miss in ADP

GVI Forex john bland 12:15 GMT May 4, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

U.S. ADP Private Employment April 2016

U.S. Data Charts




ALERT
+156K vs. +198K exp. vs. +200K (r +194K ) prev.


RELEASE: ADP National Employment Report®



TTN: Live News Special Offer

Livingston nh 12:00 GMT May 4, 2016
Wednesday Trading

Looking for a bit of turnaround in US concerns //
ADP - couple of reasons to expect slowing in this release so sub 160k should do the trick

ISM non-mfg -- should show an increase in this broader econ measure but employment may not be helpful and watch "prices paid" for signs that it is following the MFG survey higher

Trade continues to contract but the currency effect may be buried in the details of country specific changes -- CAD, MXN and AUD for me but choose your own point of interest

HK [email protected] 11:48 GMT May 4, 2016
A/$
Reply   


0.7325 may be reached if this weakness in commodities lasts.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 11:24 GMT May 4, 2016
How o Pick Out Key Levels
Reply   


  Contact Jay Meisler








GVI Forex john bland 11:15 GMT May 4, 2016
Wednesday Trading

Today's release of the April ADP Private Jobs report sets the stage for the monthly Non-farm payroll release on Friday. While the ADP report tends not to be a reliable forecaster of NFP, it is closely followed nevertheless. Street estimates are for a gain of 198K in the month vs. +200K in March. That would imply a NFP gain of just above 200K in April.

However, Chair Yellen has redirected the focus of policy to inflation expectations from economic growth. So to a certain extent, she has diminished the importance of the jobs report for the current time.

As for trading, an outsized gain in the ADP report should weigh on EURUSD and an outsized gain should give it a boost. There is a slew of other important reports due today, including the ISM Service PMI and Productivity figures.

GVI Forex john bland 10:39 GMT May 4, 2016
Wednesday Trading

EURUSD
Pivot 1.1541
20-day 1.1345

As it is supposed to do, Fed Funds Futures and Spot EURUSD have converged. Keep in mind, this does not always happen immediately.

GVI Forex john bland 10:09 GMT May 4, 2016
Wednesday Trading

Equities -- Risk-Off
DAX -76
DJ -120
SP -16

US 1.795% -0.3
DE 0.205% +0.9
GB 1.501% -0.8

EUR crosses mostly higher, but lower vs USD and JPY
WTI $43.59 -0.06

Maribor 09:52 GMT May 4, 2016
EUR. GBP
Reply   
My guess is that EUR is targeting ~1,139 and cable ~1,4294 (now 1,1483 and 1,4475, respectively)...
EUR is expected to go steeper down than cable so that EURGBP can go down too.

GVI Forex john bland 09:24 GMT May 4, 2016
Wednesday Trading


WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:

4-May WEDNESDAY
JP- Holiday
All Day- Final SVC PMIs
12:15 US- ADP Jobs
14:30 US- EIA Crude
5-May THURSDAY
JP/CH- Holiday
8:28 GB- SVC PMI
6-May FRIDAY
12:30 CA/US- Employment
12:30 CA- Retail Sales


Trading Themes --
  • Donald Trump all but secured the Republican nomination to run for President Tuesday with a decisive win over Ted Cruz in the State of Indiana. In the Democrat race, Bernie Sanders beat Hillary Clinton in the primary, but it appears that Clinton still will be able to limp first across the finish line to become the Democrat candidate. As the shape of the Presidential race becomes clearer, markets will start to pay more attention.

  • The Eurozone final April PMI's were revised slightly lower from their flash estimates from a week ago. These data remain lacklustre, but continue to grow. The U.K. April Construction PMI was considerably weaker than expected and weighed on the GBP. The upcoming Brexit vote could adversely impacting spending decisions in the U.K.

  • Markets have been trying to digest the one way movements up and the down in the EURUSD this week in the absence of important economic developments. All I can say is that it appears that some players, perhaps for reasons other than economic, continue to push the currency in one direction, and then another. This could be for political or safety reasons. It might also be an effort to run stops by algos.


  • John M.Bland MBA, CTA,
    co-founder global-View.com


GVI Forex john bland 09:23 GMT May 4, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

Eurozone Retail Sales misses as well.

GVI Forex john bland 09:01 GMT May 4, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

Eurozone Retail Sales March 2016





ALERT
mm: -0.50% vs -0.10% exp. vs. +0.20% (r +0.30%) prev.
yy: +2.10% vs. +2.60% exp. vs. +2.40% (r +2.70%) prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer

Maribor 08:52 GMT May 4, 2016
EURGBP, GBPCHF

OK. GBPCHF target hit. Now, let's see if there are traders willing to lose money shorting it so I may gain...or I am the one to pay???
:)

Maribor 08:44 GMT May 4, 2016
EURGBP, GBPCHF
Reply   
In my analysis EURGBP hit upper boundary of my (proprietary) 1h channel at ~0,7923 so that there may be good chances to turn down again with lower boundary of channel now at ~0,775. However, GBPCHF still has to reach ~1,3843 (low 1,38478, now 1,3860) before it may go up, so we may have some time (and pips) left before opening EURGBP short and GBPCHF long...

Good luck!

GVI Forex Blog 08:37 GMT May 4, 2016
BREAKING NEWS: U.K. Construction PMI Misses
Reply   
U.K. Construction PMI misses forecasts.

BREAKING NEWS: U.K. Construction PMI Misses

GVI Forex john bland 08:31 GMT May 4, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

Big miss in UK Construction PMI

GVI Forex john bland 08:30 GMT May 4, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

Construction PMI April 2016




-- NEWS ALERT --

52.0 vs. 54.0 exp. vs. 54.2 prev.



TTN: Live News Special Offer


GVI Forex john bland 08:21 GMT May 4, 2016
BREAKING NEWS: EZ Service PMIs Revised Lower

Disappointing EZ flash PMI revisions weighing on EURUSD.

GVI Forex Blog 08:04 GMT May 4, 2016
BREAKING NEWS: EZ Service PMIs Revised Lower
Reply   
EZ, GE and FR final Service PMIs all revised lower.

BREAKING NEWS: EZ Service PMIs Revised Lower

GVI Forex john bland 08:00 GMT May 4, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

Slight downward revisions in flash pmis

GVI Forex john bland 08:00 GMT May 4, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

Final Service PMI April 2016





ALERT

EZ- Final Service PMI
53.1 vs. 53.2 exp. vs. 53.2 (flash)
France
50.6 vs. 50.8 exp. vs. 50.8 (flash)
Germany
54.5 vs. 54.6 exp. vs. 54.6 (flash)


Markit PMI Press Release



TTN: Live News Special Offer

HK Kwun 07:57 GMT May 4, 2016
USD is going to rebound
Reply   
Sell Gold
Entry: 1284 Target: Stop: 1294

sell now

HK Kwun 02:53 GMT May 4, 2016
Sell Now

Sell Gold
Entry: 1294 Target: Stop: 1304

TP at 1281, morning good breakfast

HK [email protected] 02:50 GMT May 4, 2016
A$/USD
Reply   

Critical level at 0.7450.

May not be too hard to breach, as a big number longs caught in the last price slide.

Hong Kong HK 02:38 GMT May 4, 2016
AceTrader May 4: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
Reply   
Update Time: 4 May 2016 02:08 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1480
Despite yesterday's resumption of recent upmove and intra-day rally to an 8-month peak of 1.1617 in Europe, subsequent selloff in new York session due to broad-based short-covering in the greenback confirms temporary top has been made and consolidation with initial downside bias is seen, below 1.1447/48 support needed to bring stronger correction to 1.1410/14.

On the upside, above 1.1539/42 suggests 1st leg of correction is over and may bring stronger gain to 1.1580/85 but 1.1617 should remain intact ahead of release Fri's key U.S. jobs data.

dc CB 02:02 GMT May 4, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

LIVE BLOG: Updates on the Fort McMurray wildfires

CB News

Live Blog

HK [email protected] 01:16 GMT May 4, 2016
Every nation gets the government it deserves. Joseph de Maistre
Reply   


Filipinos have scoffed and slurped to show their backing for Davao City Mayor Rodrigo Duterte ahead of next week's presidential elections.

The maverick mayor of the southern city is leading the "Gulp Poll" conducted by convenience store chain 7-Eleven, which has asked customers at their 1,650 outlets across the country to pick soda cups with images of their favorite presidential candidate.

The popularity of Duterte's blue cup has mirrored two opinion polls last week that put the 71-year-old between seven and 12 percentage points in front of his nearest rival, Grace Poe, ahead of the May 9 national vote.

"I picked Duterte because I want a change in society, and I see how well-received he is when he campaigns in other areas," said government employee Michael John Aguillon

...........................................................................................

The secret of freedom lies in educating people, whereas the secret of tyranny is in keeping them ignorant. Maximilien Robespierre
............................................................................................
Philippines may have some big problems after this coming elections.

THIS MAN WANTS TO BE THE NEXT PRESIDENT OF THE PHILIPPINES

dc CB 00:55 GMT May 4, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

Residents of neighborhoods in the Canadian boomtown of Fort McMurray - considered the gateway to Alberta's oil sands as the Athabasca oil sands are roughly centered around the town - are under mandatory evacuation as a massive wildfire has jumped across Highway 63 and entered the city limits. Homes have begun to burn in Fort McMurray as residents flee for safety from a blaze that’s doubled in size within a day. More than 30,000 people have now been ordered to evacuate Fort McMurray communities.

Massive Fire Burns At Gateway Town To Alberta's Oilsands; 30,000 Evacuated

HK [email protected] 00:49 GMT May 4, 2016
Ted Cruz pulls out of Republican race
Reply   


Ted Cruz pulls out of Republican race

5 minutes ago


Ted Cruz announces he is ending campaign for US Republican presidential nomination, after losing heavily to Donald Trump in Indiana primary

LIIINK

NW KW 00:41 GMT May 4, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

NORTH WEST FIRE SPREADIND AROUND OIL TARE SANDS AND FORTS ON FIRE.

HK [email protected] 00:16 GMT May 4, 2016
Buying Euro now?
Reply   


Looking at last daily candle and start crossing daily Stoch. hmmm?

Maybe find s.t. else to do.

 




Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
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AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
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