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Forex Forum Archive for 05/05/2016

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dc CB 23:18 GMT May 5, 2016
Thursday Trading

So it's a holiday? Christmas, New Years, Easter, Thanksgiving? Passvoer? Yom Kipper?
Don't look at the calendar, LOOK AT THE VOLUME


Markets were higher early but as the day wore on seller’s appeared taking the market to red until a late “stick save” pushed the DOW green for the win.

After all the media loves to cheer the DOW since this is what Main Street watches most. (Dave's ETF Daily)


GVI Forex john bland 20:37 GMT May 5, 2016
Friday Trading

December rate hike odds at their recent lows and EURUSD lower. These markets are out of phase. NFP could shake them back to reality, either way.

nw kw 19:56 GMT May 5, 2016
Thursday Trading

Forex john tks for insight. gl.

GVI Forex john bland 19:36 GMT May 5, 2016
Friday Trading


12:30 CA/US- Employment

12:30 CH- CPI
01:30 CN- CPI
08:30 GB- Trade
08:30 GB- Output
14:30 US- Crude
17:00 US- 10-yr Auction
11:00 GB- Bank of England
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
09:00 EZ- GDP
12:30 US- Retail Sales
12:30 US- PPI
14:00 US- University of Michigan

GVI Forex Blog 19:35 GMT May 5, 2016
CHART POINTS: Free Forex Database

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CHART POINTS: Free Forex Database

GVI Forex john bland 19:21 GMT May 5, 2016
Thursday Trading

This matters big time for YOUR trading because the forex market is highly sensitive to SENTIMENT about future Fed policy. I have been illustrating this relationship daily with the Fed Funds Futures rate hike odds against a EURUSD chart.

For the record, the Fed has been consistently too optimistic (read: WRONG) about the economy for the past 3-4 years.

GVI Forex john bland 19:16 GMT May 5, 2016
Thursday Trading

fwiw odds of a June Fed rate hike are running roughly at 12%. Let's see where they are late in the morning on Friday after NFP. SF Fed President Williams earlier was talking about 2-3 rate hikes this year. Odds on ONE rate hike by year end are only 7 in 10 at the moment.

Someone is very wrong here...

GVI Forex john bland 17:33 GMT May 5, 2016
Thursday Trading

wti falling and dragging S&P down. As you would expect the 10-yr yield is down 1.757% -1.7bp.

EURUSD "should" be higher, but is oblivious...

Maribor 16:42 GMT May 5, 2016

PAR...savings nowadays does not provide capital for investment and increased production. Fractional banking credit does...

Negative interest rate for deposits is however nonsense as it keeps the gap/deficit between active and passive balance sheet money growth. It could however close the gap if money creation would increase through more it would be easier for the Ponzi banking scheme to survive.

PAR 16:18 GMT May 5, 2016
Negative interest rates still undermine the basic notion of investing: savers forego current consumption and lend surplus funds in hopes of a future return; that in turn provides the capital needed by businesses to expand production and employment. As the St. Louis Fed points out, placing a tax on lending in the form of negative rates restrains lending instead of stimulating it.

HK [email protected] 15:19 GMT May 5, 2016
Euro breaks 1.14, means end of the Euro bull run.

In other words, expect a fight around this level.

Maribor 15:08 GMT May 5, 2016

Out of EUR at 1,1405 - I don't like it...

Maribor 15:04 GMT May 5, 2016

OK - I was lucky with EURGBP (sell), GBPCHF (buy) and EUR (sell) forecast yesterday and not so lucky with cable...I guess it is time to take some money off the table - small EUR long here at 1,1393 (I guess it can still go down to 1,135-1,129, but it may go up too). I will lower my exposure in EURGBP at 0,7864 and wait for market to show the way further...

Interesting thing would be (sudden) drop of cable to 1,43, but that may be just my thinking as in that case EUR may go below 1,129...

Goog luck!

GVI Forex john bland 14:30 GMT May 5, 2016

US EIA Weekly Natural Gas Inventories (bcf)

U.S. Data Charts

+68 vs. +70 exp vs. +73 prev.

TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Forex Blog 13:52 GMT May 5, 2016
GVI Data Calendar for 6 May 2016

May 5, 2016 ( UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Friday, May 6, 2016.

  • Far East: No Major Data
  • Europe: EZ- Retail PMI
  • North America: CA/US- Employment, CA- Ivey PMI, US- Rig Count, COT Report


12:30 CA/US- Employment

GVI Data Calendar for 6 May 2016

hk ab 13:26 GMT May 5, 2016
Time for reloading the limbo long at 122!!!

HK [email protected] 13:03 GMT May 5, 2016
Nothing looks good for payrolls.

Dollar to stall or fall.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 12:41 GMT May 5, 2016
Thursday Trading

I posted this earlier and stopped dead on at the 50% level

GVI Trading Room
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 10:55 GMT 05/05/2016 - My Profile
1.1418 = 50% of 1.1219-1.1616

GVI Forex Blog 12:41 GMT May 5, 2016
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Weekly Jobless Rebound

U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims

U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims Rebound
<Click on chart for over twelve-year history

BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Weekly Jobless Rebound

dc CB 12:39 GMT May 5, 2016
Punitive Penalties for Refusing Asylum Seekers.
EU Plans $290,000 Per Person Fine on Countries Refusing “Fair Share” of Refugees

Case For Brexit Crystallized

GVI Forex john bland 12:31 GMT May 5, 2016

U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims

U.S. Data Charts

Initial Claims (000)

+274K vs. 260K exp. vs. 257K prev.

TTN: Live News Special Offer

Jkt abel 12:01 GMT May 5, 2016

Do you have a plan Purk?

Jkt Abel 11:57 GMT May 5, 2016

Maybe it is delayed though

Mtl JP 11:52 GMT May 5, 2016
Thursday Trading

with Abe dispensing advice to UK on Brexit...
must be priceless entertaining to London sharks

Hillegom Purk 11:44 GMT May 5, 2016
Oops, guess a lot of traders saw a few stop in the last couple of days...
No 1,17?

GVI Forex john bland 11:35 GMT May 5, 2016
Thursday Trading

from Bloomberg,com email today

Brexit weighs on the U.K.
In the U.K. today there are local and mayoral elections, but it is still the vote on the Brexit referendum that is weighing most heavily on the economy. Markit Economics said its services Purchasing Managers Index dropped to 52.3 in April, its lowest level in three years.

Chris Williamson, chief economist at Markit said “Uncertainty about the EU referendum caused customers to hold back on purchases, exacerbating already-weak demand.” The pound traded largely unchanged after the data, after falling in the previous two sessions.

Mtl JP 11:02 GMT May 5, 2016
Thursday Trading

nh think turkey has had a decent run already ?
but look at the rollover

Livingston nh 10:55 GMT May 5, 2016
Thursday Trading

Turkey lighting up the Board again -- doesn't EU have a democracy indicator for membership? How about sending those refugees back to Turkey or even better some journalists? // JP -- TRY and a more compliant CB should be good for some pips

GVI Forex john bland 10:54 GMT May 5, 2016
Thursday Trading

from GVI Trading Room
Chances for a rate hike by the end of the year are now back down to around 3 in 4. EURUSD will certainly be impacted by NFP data on Friday. EURUSD no longer over-extended either way.

Other sentiment indicators:
20-day avg 1.1350
Pivot 1.1496

Mtl JP 10:23 GMT May 5, 2016
Thursday Trading

SnP as Cash Cow

Amman wfakhoury 09:32 GMT May 5, 2016
Guess the direction then.

Take care from in and out

Amman wfakhoury 09:31 GMT May 5, 2016

May be you are drunk.
take care..don't drive

HK [email protected] 09:30 GMT May 5, 2016
Guess the direction then.

Up, down, right, left, in, out.

Not a bad guess no? Like your vague posts ever.


Mtl JP 09:30 GMT May 5, 2016

do not pass judgment - trade it instead
maybe get filthy rich
maybe get plucked

Belgrade Knez 09:23 GMT May 5, 2016

I am surprised myself to even commenting on your posts.

Not worth. Please forget I wrote anything.

Amman wfakhoury 09:20 GMT May 5, 2016

Belgrade Knez 08:27 GMT 05/05/2016

with tomorrow being NFP day, anyone can guess that.
Last NFP 01 APR market moved 30-40 pips only
Guess the direction then.

GVI Forex john bland 09:02 GMT May 5, 2016
Thursday Trading


JP/CH- Holiday
8:28 GB- SVC PMI
12:30 CA/US- Employment
12:30 CA- Retail Sales

Trading Themes --
  • Markets appear to be on a hold ahead of the key U.S. Jobs data on Friday. Following soft ADP jobs data (+156K) on Wednesday, a sub-200K reading for the month is now seen as more possible. The +/- 200K line has been seen as something of a psychological benchmark. Many have been planning based on a pick up in growth in 2Q16, so a sub-200K reading would be a disappointment.

  • Large fires in the Aberta oil sands regions of Canada have some worried about oil production in the near future and have seen WTI prices up about 3.00% today. This is a major global oil production area, but any impact is not likely to be lasting.

  • The April U.K. Services PMI unexpectedly fell to its lowest level since February 2003. This was the third U.K. PMI reading to fall in as many days. Some suggest that activity by some firms have been put on hold until after the Brexit vote next month.

  • The final shoe dropped early Wednesday afternoon in N.Y. when word got out that John Kasich was ending his campaign to become the Republican nominee for President. On Tuesday, Donald Trump had all but secured the Republican nomination to run for President after a decisive victory over Ted Cruz in the State of Indiana.

  • John M.Bland MBA, CTA,

HK [email protected] 08:58 GMT May 5, 2016

What is happening in Europe, is simply disgusting.

No wonder they like to be left alone.

HK [email protected] 08:55 GMT May 5, 2016
EU referendum: 50:50 split in latest poll of polls

British voters are evenly split on whether or not to leave the European Union in the 23 June referendum, according to the latest poll of polls.


GVI Forex john bland 08:41 GMT May 5, 2016
Breaking News: U.K. Services PMI Weaker

Brexit Vote weighing on economy?

GVI Forex Blog 08:40 GMT May 5, 2016
Breaking News: U.K. Services PMI Weaker

GB Services PMI April 2016

U.K. Services PMI weaker than expected.

Breaking News: U.K. Services PMI Weaker

HK [email protected] 08:36 GMT May 5, 2016

Possible target at 0.9650. Or too good to be true?

GVI Forex john bland 08:31 GMT May 5, 2016

Another miss in UK PMI data. Lowest since Feb 2013.

GVI Forex john bland 08:30 GMT May 5, 2016

GB Services PMI April 2016

U.K. Charts


52.3 vs. 53.5 exp. vs. 53.7 prev.

Markit PMI Press Release

TTN: Live News Special Offer

Belgrade Knez 08:27 GMT May 5, 2016

with tomorrow being NFP day, anyone can guess that.

GVI Forex john bland 08:17 GMT May 5, 2016

Calendar Correction: EZ Retail PMI will be released on Friday At 08:10 GMT due to holidays today. This is a second-tier release at best.

Amman wfakhoury 07:32 GMT May 5, 2016
Ready to move big 120-150 pips within the coming 24-36 hr

haifa ac 05:13 GMT May 5, 2016
Michael Savage: Obama will sabotage economy on way out


HK [email protected] 03:22 GMT May 5, 2016
So what if they stop printing 500 denomination bills?

There are about 300B in this denomination, which is enough for all criminals for the next 10 years to come.

So practically not effective.

Those bills have to be withdrawn, as soon as possible from the market, that to have any effect, and banks should surrender their stocks in this denomination immediately.

Gold has one drawback!
One should not leave fingerprints on the bars(criminals take notice).
Should be used with gloves.

HK [email protected] 02:35 GMT May 5, 2016
Ask Who Set the Fire


Any opinion about CHF?

Are criminals on a changing spree 500E$ to 1000CHF?


dc CB 01:18 GMT May 5, 2016

Tallinn viies 22:14 GMT 05/04/2016
another reason to buy wti crude? Im trying to get short. hopefully this headline helps it higher

Oil-Sands Capacity Affected by Alberta Fire May Exceed 1m b/d

this stuff is SLUDGE
Takes $100 to make it

Ask Who Set the Fire

just sayin'

HK [email protected] 00:11 GMT May 5, 2016
One of the reason USD gets stronger is simply...

Because many instruments in the FX are Spec. long laden.

AUD,YEN,EURO, Cad.... good places not to be for the time.


Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan

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