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Forex Forum Archive for 05/16/2016

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HK LKY 23:41 GMT May 16, 2016
GBP higher
Reply   
What's the news?

dc CB 23:19 GMT May 16, 2016
Crude

forgot to mention in the losers column: all those individuals and funds that bought the Stock with the promise of HiYields, sold to them (miss-sold, hyped) as a way to be part of the New New.

Livingston nh 22:53 GMT May 16, 2016
Crude

Cb - we'd be in a lot better place if we put the TBTF myth out to pasture but they're special -- wonder why so many economists work for ___ing banks

dc CB 22:51 GMT May 16, 2016
Crude

they can also arrrange to blow some of it up, or otherwise take it off line.

US, other powers want to arm Libyan government

Livingston nh 22:49 GMT May 16, 2016
Crude

JP - Indeed, commodities are different -- demand is always the key in commodities -- it's why the OW&B folks kept warning about PEAK OIL they want you to believe DEMAND will exceed SUPPLY (Malthus)

dc CB 22:47 GMT May 16, 2016
Crude

Livingston nh 21:25 GMT
Folks shouldn't misunderstand bankruptcy law in the US.


These companies "restructure debt" under bankruptcy. The company does not disolve, Whoever holds the debt eats the loss. ie the Banks...or rather whoever was unfortunate to purchase the (bank's) repackaged loans. The winner in that deal was whoever took out a deriv that bet on those vehicles going to Zero. (see The Mortgage Crisis circa 2006-2008)

nw kw 22:45 GMT May 16, 2016
Crude

http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/need2know-asx-to-rise-rba-minutes-pending-20160516-gowmkj.html

nw kw 22:38 GMT May 16, 2016
Crude

AU AUD RBA Meeting's Minutes see cut?

nw kw 22:11 GMT May 16, 2016
Crude

usa built first drone and at same time oil fracking tek eked in under green noses. all planed go usa f sods see oil was always there, so push usa and get burnt.

nw kw 22:05 GMT May 16, 2016
Crude

cad in old school rang and army of new work for fort will move market lag 40 days.
see lumber but fed ded

nw kw 22:02 GMT May 16, 2016
Crude

exploratory rigs are hole different job. move one rig on proved zone and ill give you 10 hols going in direction's and fracking every hole, 10 * 10 and rig can sit there to?

exploratory ilrevent in pach.

Mtl JP 21:58 GMT May 16, 2016
Crude

nh fwiw

I am still BoD usdcad

Mtl JP 21:56 GMT May 16, 2016
Crude

nh and when supply gets cheaper one tries to make up lower profits by increasing volume... and the fun part (for crap loan holding banks) is when increased volume hits a demand brick wall er ... should I say storage tank steel wall

Mtl JP 21:51 GMT May 16, 2016
Crude

note that oil rig does not pump oil rather it is a drill that explores for oil (and gas). The so what... it means is that lower count of exploratory drilling has no effect on current levels of oil pumping as an out-of-work geologist from Calgary explained to me. Lower/higher drilling is only a response to current wells running dry and /or future demand for oil curve.

nw kw 21:35 GMT May 16, 2016
Crude

so rig count clues doom in false info. need 5 rigs do work of 200

nw kw 21:32 GMT May 16, 2016
Crude

see gold get refinanced 2 years in gutter so oil can be same for bit

and eur QE add tin can cars is oils saver ,pit.

nw kw 21:29 GMT May 16, 2016
Crude

not supply but production? cheaper, 10 to 1 drilling capacity changed keeping them in game f sods, by by off shore-gbp
usa can live at 20.00 ,pit.

Livingston nh 21:25 GMT May 16, 2016
Crude

Folks shouldn't misunderstand bankruptcy law in the US and the difference between TBTF whiners (i.e., Paulson et al) and commodity producers -- the shale oil doesn't go away // supply gets cheaper -- keep that in mind

nw kw 21:25 GMT May 16, 2016
Crude

gbpjpy thin but gbpaud crowded so if aud folds go for yen?

nw kw 21:22 GMT May 16, 2016
Crude

meant nzd but long u/j for pop 4h chart trapped small pull and stop. gl. kw.

nw kw 21:21 GMT May 16, 2016
Crude

nxd has unreal in land oil and ngs? 5 to 10y planning.

nw kw 21:17 GMT May 16, 2016
Crude

so usa will not allow this inland take over free cash gov.
jp- stop using sod oil

nw kw 21:14 GMT May 16, 2016
Crude

worried for off shore oil will get in land - arbitration. so oil 80

Mtl JP 21:06 GMT May 16, 2016
Crude

just to be clear about $50 barrel: it is not a hurrah day for US shale oil producers who are under tight squeeze by their highly likely very worried banker lenders

Mtl JP 20:57 GMT May 16, 2016
Crude

CB 19:49 furthermore to oil price ramp: what is there to deny (like I do not have solid proof) that CBs are behind crude demand driving it when their banking buddies are at risk with their loans to going NPerforming ?

Last month, the Wall Street Journal quoted data from Barclays that showed American banks are saddled with over $140 billion in unfunded loans to E&Ps in oil and gas - may 6 2016

Mtl JP 20:42 GMT May 16, 2016
Crude

dc CB 19:49 / market is like Nature: death of some = life to others
except that in things human things are sometimes counter-natural: even some bankrupt one continue to pump according to industry accounts. And then as price creeps up, some shut-in well will re-open , like one vulture landing on a carcass attracts additional corpus delictors of all types.

GVI Trading Room john 20:28 GMT May 16, 2016
Tuesday Trading

Gradual Convergence with sentiment


GVI Trading Room john 20:22 GMT May 16, 2016
Tuesday Trading
Reply   


WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:

17-May TUESDAY
08:30 GB- CPI
12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
12:30 US- CPI
13:15 US- Industrial Production
23:50 JP- GDP
18-May WEDNESDAY
08:30 GB- Employment
09:00 EZ- HICP
14:30 US- EIA Crude
18:00 US- Fed Policy Minutes
19-May THURSDAY
00:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
20-May FRIDAY
12:30 CA- Retail Sales
12:30 CA- CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales


Trading Themes --
  • The Whit Monday holiday on much of the Continent depressed trading activity on Monday. The economic calendar was light with the Empire PMI from the U.S. coming in much weaker than expected and the NAHB Homebuilder's index a touch softer than forecast.

  • Tuesday features CPI data from the U.K and U.S.and U.S. Housing Starts and Permits. Both the Bank of England and the Fed are especially focused on raising the level of inflation, so both reports are key.

  • A key focus remains the performance of U.S. shares, which gained on Monday. They were boosted rising oil prices once again. I am continuing to keep a close eye on the 2040 level in the S&P. Below 2040 in U.S. trading could start to trigger significant selling. The next critical level would be the 200-day average of 2012.

  • John M.Bland MBA, CTA,
    co-founder global-View.com


nw kw 20:11 GMT May 16, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

sold audjpy xa looking for fight night short aud for now

dc- you need tnt for oil yiet dreamers so cats banks drag ca down in time

nw kw 20:06 GMT May 16, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

short cadjpy for now

GVI Trading Room john 20:02 GMT May 16, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

TIC L-T Cap flows +$78.1 vs. $72.0 prev.

Source: TTN

nw kw 19:51 GMT May 16, 2016
Oil up on supply disruptions, stocks rise -- Reuters.com

ya right cadjpy on shaky support, see a trade but eurgbp weeks atm ferm gbp for now.

dc CB 19:49 GMT May 16, 2016
Crude



Too late for some> Another bankruptcy today.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Oil producers are taking advantage of the rebound in crude markets to lock in protection against another slump.

They increased their bets on falling prices to the highest level in 4 1/2 years as U.S. inventories of stored oil remained near an 87-year high, while a natural disaster in Canada and militant attacks in Africa curtailed output. Negative sentiment among the group expanded for a third consecutive week, the longest streak since February.

Energy companies from EOG Resources Corp. to Chesapeake Energy Corp. used financial instruments such as futures, swaps and collars to guard against another fall in prices. West Texas Intermediate oil, the benchmark U.S. crude, has gained more than 75 percent since hitting a 12-year low in mid-February.

Oil Drillers Adding Hedges as Crude Closes In on $50 a Barrel

GVI Forex Blog 19:43 GMT May 16, 2016
CHART POINTS: Free Forex Database
Reply   



Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format

CHART POINTS: Free Forex Database

Mtl JP 19:37 GMT May 16, 2016
Oil up on supply disruptions, stocks rise -- Reuters.com

yeah... from overnite 2035 low to 2068 high few mins ago, ever smidgen of oil supply disruption news is good news for crude and stox price.
a bull to ride !

dc CB 17:03 GMT May 16, 2016
Crude
Reply   
Cushing +700K

CME June had 229K open interest going into today's trading.
Last trade Fri.

can't wait for those EIA numbers. Maybe Crude will break 50 this week.... LOL

SToX love those Nigerian rebels blasting cude higher.

CME

NY JM 16:52 GMT May 16, 2016
Friday\'s Retail Numbers

dc, thanks for that link. Imagine where the dollar would be of retails sales printed -0.9% rather than +1.3%

tokyo joyya 16:50 GMT May 16, 2016
jpn225

wow amazing stox up alot in us session but usdjpy still below 109.....

dc CB 16:43 GMT May 16, 2016
Friday's Retail Numbers
Reply   
'seasonally adjusted"
BBG video

Why the U.S. Retail Sales Numbers Are a Bit Suspicious

GVI Trading Room john 15:45 GMT May 16, 2016
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-On In Europe Late Session

Mixed to higher EUR crosses (upper right hand corner of table). Equities up and 10-yr yields mostly up.

Typical Monday as traders try to find the theme of the week. WTI remains in demand.

GVI Trading Room Jay Meisler 15:34 GMT May 16, 2016
BREXIT

How can you trust the polls?

11:32 (UK) Latest Brexit poll: 47% in favor of stay, 39% in favor of leave - ICM phone poll

- ICM online poll: 43% in favor of stay, 47% in favor of leave

- Source TradeTheNews.com

tokyo joyya 14:46 GMT May 16, 2016
BREXIT

ok us stox seems toping here maybe this is peak of the week

GVI Trading Room john 14:39 GMT May 16, 2016
Monday Trading

10-yr yield 1.745% +4.1bp. Yield back higher from 1.70% Friday close. Higher equities (S&P +10.5) are weight on bond prices.

GVI Trading Room john 14:31 GMT May 16, 2016
Monday Trading

80% odds for a rate hike by yearend. Sentiment unchanged early in the new week. Mild convergence


GVI Forex Blog 14:13 GMT May 16, 2016
GVI Data Calendar for 17 May 2016
Reply   


May 16, 2016 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Tuesday, May 17, 2016.

  • Far East: No major data
  • Europe: GB- CPI,
  • North America: US- Housing Start/Permits, CPI, Industrial Production, API

WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:
17-May TUESDAY
08:30 GB- CPI
12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
12:30 US- CPI
13:15 US- Industrial Production
23:50 JP- GDP
18-May WEDNESDAY
08:30 GB- Employment
09:00 EZ- HICP
14:30 US- EIA Crude
18:00 US- Fed Policy Minutes
19-May THURSDAY
00:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
20-May FRIDAY
12:30 CA- Retail Sales
12:30 CA- CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales

GVI Data Calendar for 17 May 2016

tokyo joyya 14:06 GMT May 16, 2016
BREXIT

Belgrade Knez 14:05 GMT 05/16/2016
Mate thank you very much.....

Belgrade Knez 14:05 GMT May 16, 2016
BREXIT


tokyo joyya 13:52 GMT 05/16/2016
can anyone tell me when is that BREXIT?dates?

23rd June

GVI Trading Room john 14:01 GMT May 16, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

Slight weakening of NAHB index in line with the softening of other housing data recently.

GVI Trading Room john 14:00 GMT May 16, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

U.S. NAHB Index May 2016

U.S. Data Charts




NEWS ALERT
58 vs. 59 exp. vs. 58 (r) prev.

RELEASE: NAHB Index


TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Forex Blog 13:55 GMT May 16, 2016
Exclusive Brexit Poll Results: The Case for Brexit vs. Remain
Reply   

Is the unthinkable to the political establishment thinkable? This should be the question being asked as according to public polls, the outcome is currently a tossup. However, our private tracking poll, which asks the question, Do you expect the June 23 Brexit referendum result to be the UK leaving or staying in the EU?, continues to show a strong expectation for Brexit (see results below).

Exclusive Brexit Poll Results: The Case for Brexit vs. Remain

tokyo joyya 13:52 GMT May 16, 2016
BREXIT

can anyone tell me when is that BREXIT?dates?

Livingston nh 13:46 GMT May 16, 2016
Monday Trading

A factor to keep an eye on is South America -- might be a spillover into some Spanish/Portugese (EUR) banks, funds BUT the BIG effect might be OIL, USD // Brazil, Venezuela getting a little bit dicey and Argentina might be on the radar soon
___
US STOX -- there have been four months of nearly 100 bio in outflow of funds and now reports that share buybacks are dwindling so that huge support is not available -- any surprises will have a magnified effect

Livingston nh 13:39 GMT May 16, 2016
BREXIT

JP - RE: holding short Cable - can't say I would wait 'til day before Referendum because there are intervening events/surprises -- I would say spikes on fear or other sentiment would be a good time to adjust

Economics will play a smaller role than the socio-political aspects typical of most elections -- it's a confidence thing for EU and EUR likely takes a hit so maybe EUR/GBP is a place to look short after

This is a Fear of Change that crosses party lines and social strata -- the economic warnings are just turf protection // we may see some of this in the US very shortly

GVI Trading Room john 13:23 GMT May 16, 2016
Monday Trading

I put the next resistance in EURUSD @ 1.1357 if we get back above the 1.1340 line again. Not much USD demand with Europe partially closed.

GVI Trading Room john 12:31 GMT May 16, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

Empire PMI misses.

GVI Trading Room john 12:30 GMT May 16, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

Empire PMI May 2016

U.S. Data Charts




ALERT
-9.02 vs. +6.50 vs. +9.60 prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Trading Room john 12:28 GMT May 16, 2016
BREAKING NEWS
Reply   
Earthquake just north of Tokyo (Ibaraki Prefecture)

Source: TTN

tokyo joyya 11:46 GMT May 16, 2016
jpn225

look like usdjpy donot want go above 109....so many times failed...hahaha

tokyo joyya 11:02 GMT May 16, 2016
jpn225

Sell OTHER
Entry: Target: Stop:

just sold some usdzar usdtry eurzar eurtry long zarjpy and tryjpy...

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 10:33 GMT May 16, 2016
Forex Trading Outlook for the Week of May 16, 2016

I left out 2 calendar items from my outlook video. Contact me for the update EMAIL

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 09:32 GMT May 16, 2016
Forex Trading Outlook for the Week of May 16, 2016

Note the EURUSD resistance cited in my video


For me the week ended with the market trading according to plan as i show in my video, The dollar, meanwhile, closed on a firm to mixed note as the mood turned to risk off. In the week ahead, keep an eye on the reaction to US economic data as it will give a clue whether the current dollar recovery has legs. As with all news, it is the reaction more than the news itself that sends a clue for trading. 


Forex Trading Outlook for the Week of May 16, 2016

GVI Trading Room john 09:22 GMT May 16, 2016
Monday Trading

WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:

16-May MONDAY
EZ/CH-holiday
12:30 US- Empire PMI
14:00 US- NAHB Index
17-May TUESDAY
08:30 GB- CPI
12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
12:30 US- CPI
13:15 US- Industrial Production
23:50 JP- GDP


Trading Themes --
  • Today is the Whit Monday holiday on much of the Continent. The USD should remain in demand as near-zero and negative interest rates spur demand for U.S. government debt. That is the only way I can explain the 1.715% yield on 10-yr Treasuries. This demand serves as a counterbalance for demand for JPY and EUR as carry trades are unwound.

  • April headline U.S. Retail Sales beat estimates on Friday, however, the ex-autos and gas figures were in line with forecasts, meaning higher gas prices had boosted the headline data. Otherwise, recent earnings by retailers have been a disappointment. May preliminary University of Michigan data beat street forecasts solidly. Today sees second tier data from the U.S.

  • A key focus late last week was the performance of U.S. shares. I am keeping my eye on the 2040 level in the S&P in the early part of the new week. Below 2040 in U.S. trading could start to trigger serious selling with a number of high-profile companies struggling.

  • John M.Bland MBA, CTA,
    co-founder global-View.com


tokyo 05:22 GMT May 16, 2016
jpn225

i think it was jpn225 high of this week 16670 i sold 16600/16650 from here go down usdjpy could not reach 109....right?lets see next

HK Kwun 03:47 GMT May 16, 2016
Triangle Break
Reply   
Buy Gold
Entry: 1276 Target: Stop: 1266

Buy now

tokyo joyya 02:38 GMT May 16, 2016
jpn225
Reply   
Sell OTHER
Entry: 16600 Target: 14000/15300 Stop: last month high

going short again jpn225....

nw kw 02:26 GMT May 16, 2016
BREXIT

gold staled time long u/j 108.81//day trading bank cant hid and smaller stops/ day just starting can chang for xagjpy spiked ,good

tokyo joyya 02:20 GMT May 16, 2016
BREXIT

i am not trading gold and oil now......i short gold when it was around 2000

nw kw 02:17 GMT May 16, 2016
BREXIT

funs in gold?

tokyo joyya 02:15 GMT May 16, 2016
BREXIT

if spx go below 1800 and dow below 16000 then jpy rally right?last week us down so look for bigger break in stox...right?

nw kw 02:09 GMT May 16, 2016
BREXIT

gold hesitance 80 im in xaud

nw kw 02:07 GMT May 16, 2016
BREXIT

see

nw kw 02:06 GMT May 16, 2016
BREXIT

don't think xauaud at monthly top if she go's look out

tokyo joyya 01:59 GMT May 16, 2016
BREXIT

nw kw 01:53 GMT 05/16/2016

i think 1st 139/147 then maybe 163 in aug 2016 lets see...

nw kw 01:53 GMT May 16, 2016
BREXIT

no sellers gbpjpy 163.0// can crash to?

tokyo nw kw 20:57 GMT 05/15/2016 00:28 GMT May 16, 2016
BREXIT

nw kw 20:57 GMT 05/15/2016

whats your target?usdjpy 109/110?TIA

Mtl JP 00:28 GMT May 16, 2016
BREXIT

there is money to be made around the 2044 line
until one day it will go away. in the meantime
JUICE IT

tokyo joyya 00:25 GMT May 16, 2016
BREXIT

Mtl JP 00:23 GMT 05/16/2016

look like japan want up usa want go down.....

Mtl JP 00:23 GMT May 16, 2016
BREXIT



SnP back to 2044

 




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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
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