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Forex Forum Archive for 05/19/2016

Pick a date from the header above to view forum postings for that day.
Click here to join the Live Forex Forum.


Chicago Bull 23:07 GMT May 19, 2016
Friday Trading

Any ideas for Friday?

Palm Springs JC 20:30 GMT May 19, 2016
New Trader Need Help
Reply   
Buy OTHER
Entry: Target: Stop:

Hi everyone,

New to trading - looking for some good techniques on when to enter my trades.

Can anybody here point me in a good direction?

Thanks!

dc CB 20:25 GMT May 19, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

Stew Pid 17:38 GMT
I am not bozo on your bus

Google it. you might find it amusing.

"The click of an electric typewriter switch is heard as a man by the name of, uh, Clem boards a bus full of clueless clowns going to The Future Fair ("A fair for all and no fair to anybody!") While the fair is a smooth-running machine spouting revisionist historical/political dogma and doing its best to maintain order on the fairgrounds, nothing is what it seems""

dc CB 20:19 GMT May 19, 2016
Friday Trading

how many Retail Jobs is that?

dc CB 20:19 GMT May 19, 2016
Friday Trading

But the Gov said Retail.......

Gap Inc Q1 revenue $3.44Bn, Exp. $3.51Bn; Closing 75 stores

GVI Trading Room john 20:05 GMT May 19, 2016
Friday Trading
Reply   


WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:

20-May FRIDAY
12:30 CA- Retail Sales
12:30 CA- CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales


Trading Themes --
  • Comments by N.Y. Fed President Dudley Thursday did a lot to clear the air about current monetary policy at the Fed. As one of the top three at the central bank, we have to assume that he is not just speaking for himself. First of all Dudley reiterated that June 15 is "definitely a live meeting".

  • He indicated, as others have, that thet markets have recently been underestimating the probability of a policy tightening. Dudley said that he is quite pleased wtih the current market June and July policy views. Odds on a June 15 hike are about 25%, and absent a June tightening, odds are about 60% for a July 27 rate move.

  • Dudley's comments are clear. A rate hike is on the table if upcoming data are not overly weak. Their intention is to raise rates either in June or July, but have kept all options open by saying "if conditions warrant".

  • This gives the Fed cover to do nothing if economic data weaken substantially between nor and then, if financial markets suddenly deteriorate, or if the Brexit issue beomes a source of instabiity. They keep saying this decision is data-dependent and it clearly is. Nevertheless, the "defauit setting" is to tighten.

  • The apparent Fed movement on policy has given the USD a strong bid vs. the EUR and JPY. The GBP has been helped by better than expected data this week. The S&P has been trading heavy due to uncertainty about how many rate hikes are in the pipeline. The yield on the 10-yr note has risen this week on the same uncertainties. Traders will now been on data watch for the next several weeks and likely beyond.

  • John M.Bland MBA, CTA,
    co-founder global-View.com


GVI Trading Room john 19:52 GMT May 19, 2016
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off Late In N.Y.

EUR mostly weaker late
Equities Risk-Off late

GVI Forex Blog 19:29 GMT May 19, 2016
CHART POINTS: Free Forex Database
Reply   



Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format

CHART POINTS: Free Forex Database

Tallinn viies 18:49 GMT May 19, 2016
eurusd
Reply   
trying quick short euro here at 1.1206. stop and reverse at 1.1236. target 1,1110

PAR 18:32 GMT May 19, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

Stocks move higher after terrorist attack on Egyptian Airbus lift oil prices.

Mtl JP 18:29 GMT May 19, 2016
BREAKING NEWS



so are stox...

PAR 18:28 GMT May 19, 2016
FED
Reply   
After bluffing to raise rates Yellen calls in the PPT to save the markets.
Yellen loves Buffet . Yellen hates Soros. The markets must go up

GVI Trading Room john 18:27 GMT May 19, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

WTI up on report of possible terrorism in Egypt Air Crash.

GVI Trading Room john 17:44 GMT May 19, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

U.S. intelligence suggests an explosion might have brought down Egyptian Air flight today.

--TTN

Stew Pid 17:38 GMT May 19, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

I am not bozo on your bus

dc CB 17:33 GMT May 19, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

we're all bozos on this bus

As Seen

Mtl JP 17:33 GMT May 19, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

SnP 2025-2030-2024-2030... 2044 calling
pain in the donkey trade atm,
ideally I d want a straight line uP :-)

nw kw 17:25 GMT May 19, 2016
win again

because of the trend to negative real and nominal interest rates, “Gold is looking more and more attractive every single day. As a non-yielding asset, it has a minimal storage cost, so when you compare it to negative-yielding assets, it actually has a positive carry…Gold is a great portfolio hedge in an environment where world government bonds are yielding at historically low levels.”


muth5 xag up jpy go's soft?

dc CB 17:19 GMT May 19, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

Dudley's Alma Mater sets up the EXuse.

Goldman: "Dudley’s comments incrementally raise the probability of a rate increase as soon as the June FOMC meeting"

Goldman: "a rate increase at the June meeting would require a solid May employment report"

(becauz employment is is is is is is is a Major Concern during the FOMC deliberations) noted a noted Wanker at GS.

nw kw 17:17 GMT May 19, 2016
win again

cad stats are fars from strong cat shop at home not usa. might be states for resources going in fire pits. like army fleet assembled.

nw kw 17:13 GMT May 19, 2016
win again

slam eurgbp

dc CB 17:06 GMT May 19, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

How long will the world put up with this?

Wankers

nw kw 17:04 GMT May 19, 2016
win again

http://www.gold-eagle.com/article/huge-trend-changes-point-something-big-gold-market

GVI Forex Blog 16:25 GMT May 19, 2016
GVI Data Calendar for 20 May 2016
Reply   

May 19, 2016 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS Thursday, May 20, 2016.

  • Far East: No Major Data
  • Europe: No Major Data
  • North America: CA- CPI, Retail Sales, US- Existing Homes Sales, Rig Count, COT Report

WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:
20-May FRIDAY
12:30 CA- Retail Sales
12:30 CA- CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales

23-MAY MONDAY
CA- Holiday
All Day- flash PMIs
24-May TUESDAY
09:00 DE- ZEW Survey
14:00 CA- BOC Rates
14:00 US- New Home Sales
25-May WEDNESDAY
08:00 DE- IFO Survey
09:00 EZ- GDP
14:30 US- EIA Crude
26-May THURSDAY
08:30 GB- GDP
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
12:30 US- Durable Goods Orders
13:45 US- flash Service PMI
14:00 US- Pending Homes Sales
27-May FRIDAY
12:30 US- GDP
14:00 US- University of Michigan Survey

GVI Data Calendar for 20 May 2016

nw kw 16:25 GMT May 19, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

power move ap

Mtl JP 16:22 GMT May 19, 2016
BREAKING NEWS



only 14 points left to go

nw kw 16:09 GMT May 19, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

gbpuds long pulling

nw kw 16:07 GMT May 19, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

jpy can dump? or gov?

nw kw 16:05 GMT May 19, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

no dump audx mean pull look out

Mtl JP 16:04 GMT May 19, 2016
BREAKING NEWS



1.1220
watch eurusd take a dump

nw kw 16:00 GMT May 19, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

dc CB 20:29 GMT May 20, 2016

IF this month follows Script long apple

GVI Trading Room Jay Meisler 15:57 GMT May 19, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

CB, can you email me at [email protected]

dc CB 15:45 GMT May 19, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

dc CB 20:29 GMT May 13, 2016

IF this month follows Script, then today was bait for more shorts who will be slaughtered during next week's OPEX.

IF is the operative word. IF NOT, then next week will open the door to worseness in the MarkIT after the obligatory Memorial Day End of Month Rally. June could be brutal.

nw kw 15:29 GMT May 19, 2016
win again

pin long u/j small stop.gl.kw.

Mtl JP 15:27 GMT May 19, 2016
BREAKING NEWS



2026 -
dc CB I am barely at even atm

dc CB 15:17 GMT May 19, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

the FED's Magic Wanker Circle

Dudley: We ARE very Transparent. We listen to tne MarkIT.

Circle of Jerks

Mtl JP 15:14 GMT May 19, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

S&P at 1800 -1850 on what platform ?????

dc CB 15:12 GMT May 19, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

Dudley:
Economy clearly not meeting conditions for a rate hike, S&P at 1800 -1850.

Mtl JP 15:10 GMT May 19, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

Dudley: Fed will go slower if financial conditions tighten a lot
-
starting to talk too long too much

GVI Trading Room john 15:04 GMT May 19, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

Dudley:

economy currently meeting conditions for a rate hike

Mtl JP 15:04 GMT May 19, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

they are playing players for dunces
and players are letting 'em for now

GVI Trading Room john 15:02 GMT May 19, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

Well Dudley's comments are pretty clear. A rate hike is on the table if upcoming data are not overly weak. I think they are playing Brexit close to the vest

NY JM 14:58 GMT May 19, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

Dudley must looking at a EURUSD chart

Comments came out right after failure to test the 1.1230 HOD aka whiplash trading but performing technically.

GVI Trading Room Jay Meisler 14:53 GMT May 19, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

10:50 (US) Fed's Dudley: June is definitely a live meeting; quite pleased wtih market's June-July views - comments to reporters
- says clearly there's a pretty strong sense on FOMC that markets were underestimating tightening probability, echoing FOMC April minutes

- Source TradeTheNews.com

GVI Trading Room john 14:53 GMT May 19, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

Dudley
-- June definitely a live meeting
-- clear sense on FOMC Markets under-estimating hike risk
-- pleased now with market's view
--June or July reasonable expectation


--TTN

HK Kwun 14:50 GMT May 19, 2016
win again
Reply   
Sell Gold
Entry: 1250 Target: Stop: 1260

previous one win 10 dollars, now sell again

GVI Trading Room john 14:33 GMT May 19, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

Dudley policy remains data-dependent

GVI Trading Room john 14:31 GMT May 19, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

Dudley
No comments on policy outlook

GVI Trading Room john 14:30 GMT May 19, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

US EIA Weekly Natural Gas Inventories (bcf)

U.S. Data Charts




ALERT
+73 vs. +75 exp vs. +56 prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer


GVI Trading Room john 14:29 GMT May 19, 2016
Thursday Trading

Equity correction giving EURUSD a modest boost

Mtl JP 14:24 GMT May 19, 2016
BREAKING NEWS



2026
ok CB going long on your rec

dc CB 14:21 GMT May 19, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

Dudley DoRight, waiting in the wings, stage right.
"watch me turn this market around", he toothly grims, "watch and learn what power is"

Livingston nh 14:12 GMT May 19, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

JP - can't say anything about gold w/o breaking into a rash // past two summers have not been good for gold or oil

tokyo joyya 14:10 GMT May 19, 2016
short euro!

stox broken down side as expected..now jpy on fire

GVI Trading Room john 14:09 GMT May 19, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

Leading Indicators sound important, but they are mostly just a compilation of data already released. They don't tell us anything new.

GVI Trading Room john 14:07 GMT May 19, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

U.S. Leading Indicators April 2016

U.S. Data Charts




NEWS ALERT
+0.60% vs. +0.40% exp. vs. +0.20% prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer

Mtl JP 14:05 GMT May 19, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

1246-ish
Livingston nh think time long some Gold ?

Livingston nh 13:59 GMT May 19, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

It appears that STOX have decided to call the Fed's bluff - a couple of 300 point down days might make some to reconsider the wish to be taken seriously

Mtl JP 13:41 GMT May 19, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

not might. Dudly has a Q&A on schedule

GVI Trading Room john 13:38 GMT May 19, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

I don't know if this is a pre-release of Dudley comments. He was slated for 14:30 GMT. Even if this was a release of his prepared text, he might still take Q&A

GVI Trading Room john 13:36 GMT May 19, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

Dudley
-- Fed must become more transparent
-- important to anchor expectations
-- not ready to embrace full GDP targeting

Mtl JP 13:26 GMT May 19, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

Fischer putting Sherlock to shame rofl

GVI Trading Room john 13:21 GMT May 19, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

Fed's Fischer
-- U.S. needs faster economic growth.

Livingston nh 13:19 GMT May 19, 2016
Thursday Trading

So far FOMC Minutes banged up the EM o/n and pushed rates a bit higher here
STOX acted in response to being wrong and then bounced back, a typical FED move - OPtion EXpiry may push the STOX around a bit as folks assess whether this is just another head fake by Fed

Dudley and Fischer comments likely to solidify the "IT's Alive" noise about June meeting -- ironic that Woodford (Father of Forward Guidance, how's that workin' out) gets an award the day after the Fed desperately tries to move market expectations
___
We've been here before and I mentioned the discrepancy between Participant and Member opinion on RATE HIKE in the Minutes
so consider the list of Members and tell me who changes vote from April (same group as March)

Voting for this action: Janet L. Yellen, William C. Dudley, Lael Brainard, James Bullard, Stanley Fischer, Loretta J. Mester, Jerome H. Powell, Eric Rosengren, and Daniel K. Tarullo.

GVI Trading Room Jay Meisler 13:14 GMT May 19, 2016
Thursday Trading

Fed's Fischer not commenting on monetary policy (no surprise given the topic). Dudley more likely to comment.

Vancouver G.A. 13:12 GMT May 19, 2016
EUR

Thank you Livingston nh!
I am going long Euro with multiple positions (starting light and then add as it goes down) with stop loses below 1.1. Maybe around 1.0950 or so. [email protected] 1.19 - 1.2.

GVI Trading Room john 13:12 GMT May 19, 2016
Thursday Trading

Single Fed rate hike odds
June 15 ~25%
July 27 62%

July 27 odds are cleaner than June.

Markets still do not trust Fed signals. Lets see if these numbers change after Fischer/Dudley

tokyo joyya 13:08 GMT May 19, 2016
short euro!
Reply   
stox seems go down again currencies no idea wtf but usd on fire chf eur aud maybe keep falling......gbp wtf....

Livingston nh 13:05 GMT May 19, 2016
EUR

Vancouver G.A.
I'm using a line chart closing price

Daily USD/EUR trendline from end Nov bottom to beginning of Mar bottom has a rising trendline (~1.1138 level currently and coinciding w/ rising wkly 21ma) -- MACD has not confirmed the 3 daily highs (Feb, Apr and May) and MACD is still declining
A close break below 1.1138 would not negate a resumption of the channel but reset the bottom of the range (1.15 seems the wkly top for the past year)

Anything below 1.10 this month could be a problem for the channel

GVI Trading Room Jay Meisler 13:01 GMT May 19, 2016
Thursday Trading

I posted this on the GVI Trading Room and it worked out nice Contact me for free access

GVI Trading Room
GVI Trading Room Jay Meisler 12:15 GMT 05/19/2016 - My Profile
Dollar likely to find support ahead of Fedspeak so perhaps a fade the news trade if Philly Fed disappoints. Jobless claims spiked last week and forecast to drop.

Mtl JP 13:00 GMT May 19, 2016
Friday Trading

usdcad 1.3150
Sja 11:55 good for you.
1.33 likely next but no guarantee

GVI Trading Room john 12:55 GMT May 19, 2016
Thursday Trading

Upcoming-- 13:15 GMT Speech - Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer
(Money), Interest and Prices: Patinkin and Woodford
At the Conference in Honor of Michael Woodford's Contributions to Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York, New York

GVI Trading Room john 12:49 GMT May 19, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

As for Lacker. This a perfect case where you CAN shoot the messenger...

GVI Trading Room john 12:48 GMT May 19, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

Lacker (hawk)
-- Markets took wrong signal from Fed in March and April
-- Markets overestimated how likely Fed was to pause.

GVI Trading Room john 12:44 GMT May 19, 2016
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Weekly Jobless In Line With EWstimates

You might have to refresh page manually to update chart below

GVI Forex Blog 12:42 GMT May 19, 2016
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Weekly Jobless In Line With EWstimates
Reply   
U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims in line

Click on chart for over twelve-year history

BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Weekly Jobless In Line With EWstimates

NY JM 12:41 GMT May 19, 2016
Thursday Trading

Lacker (no voter and a hawk) spouting hawkish comments

Mtl JP 12:37 GMT May 19, 2016
Thursday Trading

re cretin Fischer's speech:

I am amending my risk assessment from F to C from this dummy.
It appears he ll hold a Q&A

GVI Trading Room john 12:33 GMT May 19, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

Correction consensus for Philly fed was +3.5 so the number missed.

Vancouver G.A. 12:31 GMT May 19, 2016
EUR

I am not sure whether current Euro rates are just building a base for going up to 1.17 - 1.2. I am not talking about a day trade. Just have a look at Euro daily chart and you will see a rising channel. Any thoughts?

GVI Trading Room john 12:30 GMT May 19, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

U.S. Philly Fed Index May 2016

U.S. Data Charts




NEWS ALERT

-1.8 vs. +3.5 exp. vs. -1.6 prev.



TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Trading Room john 12:30 GMT May 19, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims

U.S. Data Charts




height="25">

NEWS ALERT

Initial Claims (000)
278K vs. 275K exp. vs. 294K prev.

TTN: Live News Special Offer


U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims up sharply



Click on chart for over twelve-year history

Mtl JP 12:27 GMT May 19, 2016
Thursday Trading

I am guessing Philly Fed bigger A-risk to my account than A-rated jobless claims - at bottom of hour

Mtl JP 12:03 GMT May 19, 2016
Thursday Trading



8a.m. 2039
US stocks heading into NY session
suggesting an under-water open

GVI Trading Room john 11:59 GMT May 19, 2016
Thursday Trading

GVI Trading Room

Market Sentiment/Bias
Pivot 1.1251
20-day 1.1372

Watch the pivot; 20-day out of range
Bias NEGATIVE below 1.1250 to below 1.1150.

Sentiment indicator suggesting at current Fed Funds policy forecast that EURUSD has additional downside potential. Odds for a rate hike on June 15 are still a surprisingly low 28% in favor.



Bali Sja 11:55 GMT May 19, 2016
Friday Trading

very nice trade and call JP. I silently followed your usdcad trade,well done. Thank you.

Mtl JP 11:51 GMT May 19, 2016
Friday Trading



update
JP 14:29 GMT May 6, 2016
usdcad 1.2936
above 1.29 -->> 1.30/1.3150

Maribor 11:44 GMT May 19, 2016
EUR

EUR target now at ~1,1186, USDJPY at 111,0.

GVI Trading Room john 11:34 GMT May 19, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

European Central Bank (ECB) Minutes for April 2016





NEWS ALERT

-- Need to change perception that policy cannot bring inflation to target
-- Grounds for cautious optimism on economy
-- Important to reaffirm independence



ECB


TTN: Live News Special Offer

Mtl JP 11:08 GMT May 19, 2016
Thursday Trading

and so has Stanley's role - the dummy - been planned out
he is a natural

GVI Trading Room john 11:00 GMT May 19, 2016
Thursday Trading

Im sure these speeches were scheduled many months ago.

Mtl JP 10:56 GMT May 19, 2016
Thursday Trading

so they assign cretin Fischer to give an honor speech... lol
this guy is an embarrassment
give him F risk rating to my account

GVI Trading Room 10:42 GMT May 19, 2016
Thursday Trading

You never know either way, but odds are Fischer will remain on topic and say nothing. Dudley undoubtedly will have something to say. Yellen, Fischer and Dudley are the inner-circle at the top of the Central Bank.

13:15 GMT Fischer-- Speech in honor of Michael Woodford's contributions to economics

14:30 GMT Dudley-- Press briefing on macroeconomic trends

Mtl JP 10:11 GMT May 19, 2016
Dollar pauses after surge to three-week high -- Reuters.com



2044's state of affairs heading into NY

GVI Trading Room john 08:55 GMT May 19, 2016
Thursday Trading


WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:

19-May THURSDAY
00:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
20-May FRIDAY
12:30 CA- Retail Sales
12:30 CA- CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales


Trading Themes --
  • Markets are still digesting Fed Minutes from yesterday. They indicated that a rate hike is likely on June 15 "if the data warrant". This was not a clear rate hike signal. We still will need some details on the Fed's conditionality.

  • A key focus today will be speeches by Vice Chair Fischer (13:15 GMT) and N.Y Fed President Dudley (14:30 GMT) for any additional details.

  • Fed Funds futures now place 30% odds on a rate hike on June 15 from 12% beforehand. So they still feel a move in June is unlikely. I put the odds closer 50-50 because the Fed appears to be determined to tighten as soon as it can.

  • The Fed Minutes have given the USD a strong bid vs. the EUR and JPY. The S&P dipped initially on the Fed announcement but worked its way higher to about unchanged by the close. We are trading early Thursday back atthe key 2040 level. The yield on the 10-yr note is just shy of the 1.90% line, as bond dealers appear to be bracing themselves for a series of rate hikes.

  • John M.Bland MBA, CTA,
    co-founder global-View.com


GVI Forex Blog 08:39 GMT May 19, 2016
BREAKING NEWS: U.K. Retail Sales Beat Expectations
Reply   
U.K. Retail Sales beat estimates.

BREAKING NEWS: U.K. Retail Sales Beat Expectations

GVI Trading Room john 08:34 GMT May 19, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

U.K. Retail sales beat expectations. GBP higher.

GVI Trading Room john 08:32 GMT May 19, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

U.K. Retail Sales April 2016

U.K. Charts




-- NEWS ALERT --

mm: +1.30% vs. -0.10% exp. vs. -1.30% (r -0.50%) prev.
x-fuel
mm:+1.50% vs. -0.20% exp. vs. -1.60% (r -0.70%) prev.

RELEASE: UK Retail Sales


TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Forex Blog 07:57 GMT May 19, 2016
BREAKING NEWS: Australia Employment Data Miss Estimates
Reply   
EARLIER: April Employment data weaker than forecast, However all the increase was in part-time jobs (+20.1K).


BREAKING NEWS: Australia Employment Data Miss Estimates

HK Kwun 06:35 GMT May 19, 2016
USD is the best
Reply   
Sell Gold
Entry: 1255 Target: Stop: 1265

sell now

Sydney ACC 05:44 GMT May 19, 2016
RBA will be forced to cut interest rate to 1 per cent or lower, Macquarie says
Reply   
The official cash rate is likely to fall to 1 per cent or lower as a lack of fiscal policy from the government places the onus on lifting demand on a weaker currency and the RBA, Macquarie says.
In a bearish note, the investment bank's head of economic research James McIntyre says that without government policy support - backed by a global fiscal boost, or substantive structural reforms in key trading partners such as China - the RBA will be forced to cut rates further as it fights disinflatio​n.
"With weak income growth a demand boost is needed. A weaker currency or fiscal policy boost are the two available options," Mr McIntyre said.
"The recent budget projected continued fiscal consolidation and only forecast a modest contribution to growth from public demand."
Wage growth hit an 18-year low in the March quarter, Australian Bureau of Statistics data showed this week.
Government support appears unlikely, and the currency is unlikely to fall on its own because global investors are drawn to the Australian dollar for its relatively high returns, given the ultra-low interest rates worldwide.
The RBA will therefore be forced to slash the cash rate to 1 per cent - a 75 basis point fall from its current record low of 1.75 per cent - or lower to keep a lid on the currency. It may have to cut even further to push the Aussie low enough to lift domestic demand, Mr McIntyre said.
"The decline in the Australian dollar has helped to improve Australia's competitiveness whilst sustaining nominal price levels in the economy – although wages are adjusting lower," he said.
But a further fall in the local currency to around US65˘ is necessary to assist the economy's adjustment beyond trade services, he said. The dollar is currently buying around US72˘.

Link to full story

nw kw 04:36 GMT May 19, 2016
AceTrader May 19:Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (USD/JPY)

plan for ecb?

Hong HK 03:06 GMT May 19, 2016
AceTrader May 19:Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (USD/JPY)
Reply   
19 May 2016 03:00GMT

USD/JPY - 110.24... Dlr trades with a firm undertone in Tokyo trading after o/n rally to a near 3-week high of 110.26 following release of 'hawkish' FOMC minutes which indicated a rate rise in June is still on the cards if upcoming U.S. data show decent strength on the economy.

Yesterday's close above the psychological 110.00 res bodes well for recent dlr bulls as a weekly close above this level would generate 'buy signal' on many momentum-tracking trading models. Therefore, buying dlr on dips is the way to go. Bids are noted at 110.00-109.90 area and more below with stops below 109.50.
Some offers are tipped at 110.40/50 with stops touted above there.

Some light U.S. data are due out later today and if weekly U.S. jobless claims data continues to show strength in the labour market, then expect further buying on the dlr.

nw kw 01:53 GMT May 19, 2016
Trade Off The Cretins Corner

exports of cargas toeur.

nw kw 01:50 GMT May 19, 2016
Trade Off The Cretins Corner

rigged for cliton./eur stabilizing?

Mtl JP 01:48 GMT May 19, 2016
Trade Off The Cretins Corner

IF the dollar gets a bit too enthusiastic too rapidly on the recent past cretins' smoke signals and the minutes Janet can use Brexit "threat" as excuse in her upcoming yikyak to try to tame it

nw kw 01:36 GMT May 19, 2016
Thursday Trading

The number of people in full-time work fell 9,300 in April, while those in part-time work rose 20,200.

nw kw 01:34 GMT May 19, 2016
Thursday Trading

so is gold a short?

nw kw 01:31 GMT May 19, 2016
Thursday Trading

so plan a gl.

nw kw 01:23 GMT May 19, 2016
Thursday Trading

take eur up to

nw kw 01:22 GMT May 19, 2016
Thursday Trading

plan b can be good for fed so it moved to strength already so pop? crafty banks?

nw kw 01:18 GMT May 19, 2016
Thursday Trading

aud uic in 5min? set bad?

HK [email protected] 01:18 GMT May 19, 2016
Thursday Trading


Gold may sink close to 1200, because of the interest rise mania.

nw kw 01:07 GMT May 19, 2016
Thursday Trading

no nothing moves utill xauaud brakes out range this year and risk short aud/// for now
sit on audjpy atm

nw kw 01:04 GMT May 19, 2016
Thursday Trading

timber

tokyo joyya 01:04 GMT May 19, 2016
Thursday Trading

asking me?

nw kw 01:02 GMT May 19, 2016
Thursday Trading

angry aud poss sell?

nw kw 01:01 GMT May 19, 2016
Thursday Trading

eurgbp or plan b. I post charts revers ?

Mtl JP 01:00 GMT May 19, 2016
Thursday Trading

little in terms of resistance up to 111.80-ish on chart

nw kw 01:00 GMT May 19, 2016
Thursday Trading

eur pull long eurgbp

nw kw 00:58 GMT May 19, 2016
Thursday Trading

stick Graney ?

nw kw 00:57 GMT May 19, 2016
Thursday Trading

golds dropping aud might follow has this year but always risk for plan b. gl.

nw kw 00:54 GMT May 19, 2016
Thursday Trading

trapped kill shot audjpy 4h chart

tokyo joyya 00:48 GMT May 19, 2016
Thursday Trading

look like stop hunt....i have small short usdjpy....stay sideline till clear break then buy or sale....

Mtl JP 00:42 GMT May 19, 2016
Fed signals interest rate hike firmly on the table for June -- Reuters.com

nh 19:13 ya dont' think the market is having fun on Janet's account already ?

nw kw 00:29 GMT May 19, 2016
Thursday Trading

e wave stops pleas for there biggest players or sheep stuck in math to much?

nw kw 00:26 GMT May 19, 2016
Thursday Trading

So Slap stick Graney decided to read and adjusts cots, some one trading usa big flood for restocking, usa gdp up from strong cad for it lost trade to usa, rigged?
in 30y b.

 




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