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Forex Forum Archive for 05/20/2016

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Livingston nh 20:54 GMT May 20, 2016
NEXT
Reply   
By the time Yellen gets to her D-DAY anniversary speech next month the markets may have sobered up and brought the expectations for a hike back to the "JUNE is Deader than Monty Python's Parrot" level

SO what will she say to convince markets "We Really Really Mean IT" - does she say "will" or "may"? ah, and what if May Employment "disappoints"; will she reach into the bag of EXPERT Wizard Trix and summon some obscure Labor Statistic to counter the markets' loss of faith?

This "expectation" is just a communications game the Fed plays to avoid surprising the market (like the bookie who is getting too much action on the local NFL dog and needs to balance so he changes the spread on Friday) - it doesn't mean anything as far as the ultimate outcome

We went thru the same ritual into last June's meeting (Greece) and again in September (when the Fed became CB to the world)

This from BBRG this afternoon
LINK
____
John - I have a quibble w/ your default setting re: June -- an intention suggests there is a plan -- I still think they are making it up as they go along -- default is still TIMID

GVI Forex Blog 20:05 GMT May 20, 2016
CHART POINTS: Free Forex Database
Reply   

Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format

CHART POINTS: Free Forex Database

GVI Trading Room john 19:47 GMT May 20, 2016
Commitment of Traders Report
Reply   

Commitment of Trader Report Charts Trader Positions: EUR, JPY, CHF, GBP


Net EUR JPY COT Positions



Click on chart for EUR COT Details






Click on chart forJPY COT Details



X+++++
Net GBP and CHF COT Positions





Click on chart for COT Details







Click on chart for COT Details


Net AUD and CAD COT Positions





Click on chart for COT Details







Click on chart for COT Details




G+++++

Commitment of Trader Report Charts Trader Positions: CAD, AUD, Gold, Oil


Net Crude, Gold, S&P and 10-yr Positions







Click on chart for COT Details










Click on chart for COT Details










Click on chart for COT Details










Click on chart for COT Details




Livingston nh 19:41 GMT May 20, 2016
SAME OLD
Reply   
Two things last Spring were higher - price of crude and Treasury yields (despite December's move)

Based on today's performance Treasurys have made the adjustment to the FED "threat" - past two summers did not treat oil very well

SO FAR nothing's changed

Mtl JP 19:10 GMT May 20, 2016
Crude

dc CB 18:08 as it should - societal rules.

Maribor 18:58 GMT May 20, 2016
EUR

joyya, a lot of things are possible in forex, but I would not bet on your targets. You seems to have strong convictions?

tokyo joyya 18:26 GMT May 20, 2016
EUR

usdjpy any time can crash to 105 just be careful maybe from here or 111/112

tokyo joyya 18:24 GMT May 20, 2016
EUR

aud most likly gap down next week

tokyo joyya 18:23 GMT May 20, 2016
EUR

audusd want 0.65 gbpusd want 1.35/1.3 usdjpy go down

Maribor 18:17 GMT May 20, 2016
EUR

JP: I guess USDX is close or already at short level; USD can gain against JPY till 111,2, but otherwise: GBPUSD is ready to rise and GBPAUD has gone too far up => AUDUSD shall go up...

dc CB 18:11 GMT May 20, 2016
Crude

Next weekend is Memorial Day Weekend is the US...traditionally The Start of Summer.

Bet on another 15 to 25 cents per gal rise by next Friday

dc CB 18:08 GMT May 20, 2016
Crude

It's the weekend. Gas-at-pump rises locally 6 cents since Wed evening.

dc CB 17:52 GMT May 20, 2016
Crude
Reply   
Banks are now funding the losses to keep offshore oil away from the market.

What is taking place in the oil market appears to be merely the latest disconnect between the paper and physical markets, something quite familiar to precious metals traders in recent years.

This has led to a dramatic development in the oil market: debt-funded storage. Reuters writes that the need to store oil is so strong that traders are calling up banks to finance storage charters despite there being no profit in keeping fuel in tankers at current rates.

"We are receiving unusually high amounts of queries to finance storage charters," said a senior oil trade financier with a major bank in Asia. "These queries come from traders fully aware that they will not make a profit from storing the oil. This isn't a trade play, it's the oil market looking for places to store unsold fuel," he added.

So why are the traders doing this?

Simple: they hope that oil prices will rise fast and soon

Something Stunning Is Taking Place Off The Coast Of Singapore

tokyo joyya 17:52 GMT May 20, 2016
short gbp and usd!

must be some cracker

tokyo joyya 17:51 GMT May 20, 2016
short gbp and usd!

usdjpy maybe 106 tonight?now no one short ahaha

tokyo joyya 17:46 GMT May 20, 2016
short gbp and usd!

Mtl JP 17:41 GMT 05/20/2016

hahaha i have very bearish bias in few hours maybe crash down alot...

Mtl JP 17:41 GMT May 20, 2016
short gbp and usd!



good one Joy 16:28, lucky u

GVI Trading Room john 17:28 GMT May 20, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

Interesting the Rig Count decline continues to slow.

GVI Trading Room john 17:25 GMT May 20, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

US Weekly Baker-Hughes Rig Count

U.S. Data Charts



ALERT

Total (inc gas) U.S.: 404 vs 406 (-2) prev
US (oil): 318 vs. 318 (0) prev

Canada 44 vs. 43 (+1) prev

TTN: Live News Special Offer

tokyo joyya 17:20 GMT May 20, 2016
short gbp and usd!

even short term look like gbpusd close belw 1.45 today

tokyo joyya 17:18 GMT May 20, 2016
short gbp and usd!

Kaunas DP 17:15 GMT 05/20/2016

gbp aud chf and eur stox all pointing south i donot see any bullish set up...

Kaunas DP 17:15 GMT May 20, 2016
short gbp and usd!

you bet on brexit, I bet on shprt term scalp, which is business as ussual as opposed to brex

tokyo joyya 17:14 GMT May 20, 2016
short gbp and usd!

gbp can lose 10% to 30% in year time same with euro audjpy can go very deep

tokyo joyya 17:08 GMT May 20, 2016
short gbp and usd!

gbpaud can go very deep 2000/5000pips gbpjpy same....

tokyo joyya 17:05 GMT May 20, 2016
short gbp and usd!

Kaunas DP 16:50 GMT 05/20/2016

i am not looking for 30/50pips i am looking 500/5000pips

Kaunas DP 16:50 GMT May 20, 2016
short gbp and usd!

Buy GBPUSD
Entry: 1.4514 Target: 1.4544 Stop: 1.45

done long

tokyo joyya 16:28 GMT May 20, 2016
short gbp and usd!

maybe time for stox go down..

Mtl JP 16:20 GMT May 20, 2016
EUR

Maribor 15:43 re AUDUSD as a buy opp: I am on the other side - ya I am biased - as I think odds favour usd bid.

GVI Forex Blog 15:58 GMT May 20, 2016
GVI Trading Room Calendar
Reply   


May 20, 2016 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Monday, May 23, 2016.

  • Far East: JP- flash PMI
  • Europe: EZ- flash PMIs
  • North America: CA- Holiday, US- flash Markit PMI

WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:
23-MAY MONDAY
CA- Holiday
All Day- flash PMIs
24-May TUESDAY
09:00 DE- ZEW Survey
14:00 CA- BOC Rates
14:00 US- New Home Sales
25-May WEDNESDAY
08:00 DE- IFO Survey
09:00 EZ- GDP
14:30 US- EIA Crude
26-May THURSDAY
08:30 GB- GDP
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
12:30 US- Durable Goods Orders
13:45 US- flash Service PMI
14:00 US- Pending Homes Sales
27-May FRIDAY
12:30 US- GDP
14:00 US- University of Michigan Survey

GVI Trading Room Calendar

Mtl JP 15:55 GMT May 20, 2016
Friday Trading



1.3130-ish
usdcad keep BoD bias
should be good for additional 200-400 pips
YORCA (your own risk considerations apply)

Maribor 15:46 GMT May 20, 2016
SP500
Reply   
For me good level to short SP500 is 2062-63...

Good luck!

Maribor 15:43 GMT May 20, 2016
EUR

EUR target met, USDJPY target moved up to 111,19 now.
AUDUSD seem to me worth looking as buy opportunity.

Good luck!

Mtl JP 15:14 GMT May 20, 2016
Friday Trading

110.50
usd is up almost 2% against the yen this week - jealous ?
it is a nice move, especially if prorated for annual basis lol

Mtl JP 15:08 GMT May 20, 2016
Friday Trading

first lets define "benefitting" then exactly what are you talking about: eurdlr is off 1.1290 near 1.12 and likely heading to 1.10-ish - just maybe not on 1-5 minute chart ?

PAR 14:58 GMT May 20, 2016
Friday Trading

Dollar not really benefitting from strong US economic numbers and expectations of a couple of rate hikes .

Mtl JP 14:55 GMT May 20, 2016
Friday Trading

closing in on 11am in NY eurdlr likely to be subject to willy-nilly priceaction between different size sharks feeding off each others's sls

Mtl JP 14:29 GMT May 20, 2016
Friday Trading

1.1206
gv chartpoints:
Pivot 1.1204
Sup 1 1.1178

tokyo joyya 14:27 GMT May 20, 2016
short gbp and usd!

most eurusd long closed..eurusd want 1.1 look like posting here no good markeet go against me...

Mtl JP 14:19 GMT May 20, 2016
Friday Trading



SnP back to +ive YTD
currently ignoring cretins' "live meeting" yak

Mtl JP 14:18 GMT May 20, 2016
Friday Trading

SnP back to +ive on the year
currently ignoring cretins' "live meeting" yak

GVI Trading Room john 14:07 GMT May 20, 2016
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Existing Homes Sales Beat Expectations

In chart below, look how well lagged Pending Homes Sales predict Existing Homes Sales data.

GVI Forex Blog 14:05 GMT May 20, 2016
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Existing Homes Sales Beat Expectations
Reply   
Most significant housing statistic. Data much better than forecast.

BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Existing Homes Sales Beat Expectations

PAR 14:02 GMT May 20, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

Red hot US housing market . Booming sales and rising prices . Go Yellen go .

GVI Trading Room john 14:01 GMT May 20, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

Existing Homes much stronger than expected.

GVI Trading Room john 14:00 GMT May 20, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

U.S. Existing Homes Sales (mln) April 2016

U.S. Data Charts





ALERT
5.450 vs. 5.390 exp. vs 5.330 (r 5.360) prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Trading Room Jay Meisler 13:40 GMT May 20, 2016
Friday Trading

Just look at the EUR crosses to find the source of EURUSD demand. I offered my free videos on this topic and no clue why some have not contacted me to see how to trade these type of markets. EMAIL

Livingston nh 13:26 GMT May 20, 2016
Friday Trading

OPEX in stox - yesterday's opening SPX gap up to 2048

Treasury moves should call the tune for currency and stox

GVI Trading Room john 13:17 GMT May 20, 2016
Friday Trading

They just ran stops @1.1230

from GVI trading Room. Check it out [email protected]

GVI Trading Room john 12:21 GMT 05/20/2016
Looking at the hourly chart in EURUSD, what jumped out at me was Jay's levels. 1.1230 is is serious resistance (= decent stops?), then previous support at 1.1255 (Resistance).

A test of 1.1230 looks likely,
then 1.1250 (55) could prove very hard to push through absent news.

I cited the 1.1204 pivot as key to the tone today. you can use 1.1200 as key. I am taking my lead from stocks. Weak stocks = higher EURUSD and vice-versa.

Mtl JP 13:06 GMT May 20, 2016
Friday Trading

14:00 A US Existing Homes
risk rating "A" to my account likely mis-rated on the too high side as it is unlikely to reaction-move prices 50+ pips

Mtl JP 12:56 GMT May 20, 2016
Friday Trading

1256
Gold could be a snipers delight. It is Friday and cretins' yak, for the short-term, has mostly been priced in so why not try to tease out some profits eh ?

GVI Forex Blog 12:47 GMT May 20, 2016
BREAKING NEWS: Canada CPI rises; Retail Sales Soft
Reply   

Canada: CPI (April) Retail Sales (March) 2016

Canada: CPI hotter. Eases pressure on BOC


Canada: Retail Sales miss expectations

BREAKING NEWS: Canada CPI rises; Retail Sales Soft

Mtl JP 12:47 GMT May 20, 2016
Friday Trading

cretin Tartullo yaking at top of hour
expecting risk Z to my account from him

Mtl JP 12:44 GMT May 20, 2016
Friday Trading

1.4560
not touching pound, too politicized and subject to polls about which I have absolutely no clue
kind of puppy that probably demands 200+pip sl slack if any

Mtl JP 12:36 GMT May 20, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

CPI rising is what CBankers salivate about

GVI Trading Room john 12:34 GMT May 20, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

CPI rising. Retail sales weak.

Mtl JP 12:32 GMT May 20, 2016
Friday Trading

usdcad 1.31
- still BoD bias

GVI Trading Room john 12:32 GMT May 20, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

Canada: CPI (April) Retail Sales (March) 2016

Canada Charts






NEWS ALERT
Bank of Canada Core
yy: 2.20% vs. 2.00% exp. vs. +2.10% prev.
Headline
mm: +0.30% vs. +0.30% exp. vs. +0.60% prev.
yy: +1.70% vs. +1.70% exp. vs. +1.30% prev.

Retail Sales
Headline: -1.00% vs. -0.60% exp. vs. +0.40% (r +0.60% ) prev.
X-Autos: -0.30% vs -0.40% exp. vs. +0.20% (r +0.30%)prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer

tokyo joyya 12:29 GMT May 20, 2016
Friday Trading

Mtl JP 12:21 GMT 05/20/2016

yes when such strong support taken 2000/2030 then it may go far away..

tokyo joyya 12:24 GMT May 20, 2016
short gbp and usd!

zar and try start rising..

Mtl JP 12:21 GMT May 20, 2016
Friday Trading

Joy I suspect the snp downside is protected by some pretty powerful interests altho I can not prove it.
So far I am playing the 2044 line , next one such level might be the 200ma, if seen, seeing its technical and market psychology relevance.
-
In the meantime juice it fwiw and as long as it works.

HK [email protected] 12:20 GMT May 20, 2016
EGYPT AIR
Reply   

The effect of downing Egypt Air, will help the Pro-Brexit votes, and Trump will gain more popularity.

Some Muslims are making too many troubles everywhere, so blocking immigration of some nationalities, may appear as central in those events.

tokyo joyya 12:15 GMT May 20, 2016
short gbp and usd!

long term 1.1/1.3 usdchf...

tokyo joyya 12:14 GMT May 20, 2016
Friday Trading

Mtl JP 12:06 GMT 05/20/2016

so do you think its heading 1800 and below?TIA

HK [email protected] 12:13 GMT May 20, 2016
short gbp and usd!


Initial target USD/CHF 1.0050, 1.0100 next

Mtl JP 12:06 GMT May 20, 2016
Friday Trading



SnP ahead of NY session

tokyo joyya 10:59 GMT May 20, 2016
short gbp and usd!

look like stox again go down in late usa

GVI Trading Room john 10:54 GMT May 20, 2016
Friday Trading

Equities Risk-On
DAX +86
DJ +46
SP +5

US 1.859% -0.7bp
DE 0.180% +1.5
GB 1.448% +2.8
JP -0.096% -0.1

EUR Crosses higher; down vs. AUD
WTI $48.72 +0.05

tokyo joyya 10:28 GMT May 20, 2016
short gbp and usd!

Buy EURCHF
Entry: Target: Stop:

going long now....

tokyo joyya 10:15 GMT May 20, 2016
short gbp and usd!

Buy USDCHF
Entry: Target: Stop:

seems like from here gbp and chf face big time selling so buy usdchf...

tokyo joyya 10:13 GMT May 20, 2016
short gbp and usd!

Buy EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:

seems like bottom here 1.118 for short mid term looking for bounce target 1.135/1.155 stop just below 1.118

GVI Trading Room john 10:04 GMT May 20, 2016
Friday Trading

Bias/Sentiment
20day 1.1369 -- out of range.

It will take a good while for it to fall to current spot levels.

Pivot 1.1204 - current spot above the pivot.

You can use the 1.1200 as your bias indicator today. It seems that the USD moves quickly to higher levels (lower EURUSD) and then struggles to move higher from there. Does it require a new stimulus from here?

Fed Funds Sentiment indicator remains USD positive. It seems to be saying that 1.1150 would be equilibrium.


tokyo joyya 09:56 GMT May 20, 2016
short gbp and usd!


Entry: 11207 Target: open 100/400pips Stop: 50/100pips depends

just bout eurusd 1.1207 and eurgbp 0.77 stop 50/100 pips.....

GVI Trading Room john 08:46 GMT May 20, 2016
Friday Trading



WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:

20-May FRIDAY
12:30 CA- Retail Sales
12:30 CA- CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales


Trading Themes --
  • Heading into the weekend, the USD is holding onto a positive tone. some are saying that Fed determination to hike rates early as possible is a positive vote on the economy, although Some have their doubts about growth. Rising U.S. interest rates presumably will be an attraction for funds from overseas looking for better yields.

  • The economic calendar today is relatively light with Canadian data and U.S. Existing Homes Sales awaited. The housing industry is a important source of employment. Recently traders also have been keeping a close eye on equities.

  • N.Y. Fed President Dudley Thursday did a lot to clear the air about current monetary policy. As one of the top three leaders, we assume that he was not speaking for himself alone. Dudley said June 15 is "definitely a live meeting". His comments were clear. A rate hike is on the table if upcoming data are not overly weak. Their intention is to raise rates either in June or July, but are keeping all options open until then.

John M.Bland MBA, CTA,
co-founder global-View.com


GVI Trading Room john 08:33 GMT May 20, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

Brexit Polls have been all over the map.

GVI Trading Room john 08:32 GMT May 20, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

Brexit Poll (TNS) shows Leave: 41%, Stay 38%, Undecided 21%

Source: TTN

tokyo joyya 08:15 GMT May 20, 2016
short gbp and usd!
Reply   
Buy EURGBP
Entry: Target: Stop:

planing to buy eurgbp and eurusd...

Belgrade Knez 08:14 GMT May 20, 2016
usd day


jkt abel 08:13 GMT 05/20/2016
.............................. when London comes in fully


when is that when London comes in fully?

jkt abel 08:13 GMT May 20, 2016
usd day

usd is certainly bid, but i wont be making that call so soon
we'll see when London comes in fully

nw kw 08:11 GMT May 20, 2016
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-On In Europe Mid-Morning

ya right jpy revenger, g7

kl shawn 08:11 GMT May 20, 2016
usd day

td, how about usdjpy? buy for 111?

GVI Trading Room john 08:09 GMT May 20, 2016
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-On In Europe Mid-Morning

Risk-On for equities in Europe and the Far East
EUR Crosses mostly better except vs. AuD and CAD

Note: you may need to manually refresh forum page to update table.

singapore td 08:09 GMT May 20, 2016
usd day
Reply   
looks like a strong usd day again today

perth wtr 07:53 GMT May 20, 2016
sell gbpusd
Reply   
looks like a sell while below 1.46

London LB 07:52 GMT May 20, 2016
Friday Trading

From a bank report

Expecting choppy price action into the weekend as the market digests the Fed minutes

UK JY 07:25 GMT May 20, 2016
Friday Trading

Quiet here quiet market

Have you guys given up for tje week?

Mtl JP 00:39 GMT May 20, 2016
New Trader Need Help

JC 20:30 - for example our gatekeeper's - Jay Meisler - claim to fame is sniffing stop hunting levels . give it some time n observe some others too.

 




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Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
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AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
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