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Forex Forum Archive for 05/22/2016

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Mtl JP 23:59 GMT May 22, 2016
Trade Off The Cretins Corner

there will be more of them this week:

Williams, Bullard, Harker

Kashkari, Kaplan, Harker

Bullard, Powell

Yellen & Bernanke together

Mtl JP 23:42 GMT May 22, 2016
Trade Off The Cretins Corner

"I think, yes, we have enough ammunition," Kuroda said, when asked whether the BOJ had sufficient monetary policy options, or "ammunition," left to achieve the target. "If necessary, we can further ease our monetary conditions in three dimensions. Quantitative, qualitative and interest rates." - via cnbc

Kuroda says he has monetary policy levers still to pull to hit inflation target

Mtl JP 22:49 GMT May 22, 2016
Trade Off The Cretins Corner

like lemmings they march out of their den and sing the same song:

I want to be sensitive to how the data comes in, but I would say that most of the conditions that were laid out in the minutes, as of right now, seem to be . . . on the verge of broadly being met, said Mr Rosengren

US close to passing test for June rate rise, Fed official says - cnbc 1 Hour Ago

Mtl JP 22:43 GMT May 22, 2016
my suggestion: trade on Gartman with ultra extreme caution

When's it safe to buy gold? After the Fed hikes, Gartman says - cnbc

London Chip 21:43 GMT May 22, 2016


dc CB 20:21 GMT May 22, 2016
Commitment of Traders Report

sides. Commercial hedges. notice a bit shorter than last year---on far left of chart


Livingston nh 14:13 GMT May 22, 2016

JP - Yellen is always good for a laugh - her inflation tutorial last Fall was a clear message that the Fed has no clue about the CAUSES of inflation and her end of March speech reinforced the one and done MARKET MENTALITY that the recent Fed chickenhawks and the April Minutes are trying to correct

The more "forceful" her attempt to move the odds back to at least 50/50 the more disappointing a June delay will be for the markets and credibility -- there is this myth about the Fed not moving against the market expectations so there may be some complacency into June meeting if the needle doesn't move after Yellen speech -- the players will say we got the Fed's number and they can't move/// if the FOMC gets a Spine transplant the payoff would be good --- of course, it's a bet on a three legged horse

Mtl JP 13:13 GMT May 22, 2016

re "Truly hope" (nh 12:27) that "the FED guys are on the defensive and now will be trying to make up for their earlier error. In betting its called doubling down!" ( john 11:28)

- nh gv gatekeepers are on multiple record to never count on the Fed to save your position
- curiously Fed's What's Next page does not list Janet's speech on June 6 before the World Affairs Council of Philadelphia, a Fed spokesman confirmed Monday (wsj)

What is the
Bottom Line
market's bet in the meantime on the USD and ahead of janet's yak that everyone seems to be so focussed on ?

usdx says current bias is uP
paper Gold current bias is Down

Will come a time on approach to june 6th that players will start to take bets on Yellen's tone (more hawkish vs March)
if she will clearly lay out expectations for the path of policy

Should be another trading opportunity to take sides either as
Do Not Fight The Fed (assuming you think you clearly understand her smoke signalling and market's reaction to it)
a bet that Janet is a chicken and trade with those betting on one 2016 hike

Livingston nh 12:27 GMT May 22, 2016

John - I truly hope you are right

nw kw 08:31 GMT May 22, 2016
Fed Rate Hike Now Imminent

nw kw 08:14 GMT May 22, 2016
Fed Rate Hike Now Imminent

rice cot large move ap is it linked to usd cow reversing and 30y long fed.?
watts rice telling us?


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