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Forex Forum Archive for 05/23/2016

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GVI Trading Room john 21:25 GMT May 23, 2016
Tuesday Trading


For Tuesday
20-day avg 1.1360
Pivot 1.1215

GVI Sentiment Index

odds for a rate hike continue to rise; EURUSD about dead flat
EURUSD bias is about flat.

GVI Trading Room john 20:30 GMT May 23, 2016
Tuesday Trading


WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:
24-May TUESDAY
09:00 DE- ZEW Survey
14:00 CA- BOC Rates
14:00 US- New Home Sales
25-May WEDNESDAY
08:00 DE- IFO Survey
09:00 EZ- GDP
14:30 US- EIA Crude
26-May THURSDAY
08:30 GB- GDP
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
12:30 US- Durable Goods Orders
13:45 US- flash Service PMI
14:00 US- Pending Homes Sales
27-May FRIDAY
12:30 US- GDP
14:00 US- University of Michigan Survey


Trading Themes --
  • The USD put in a mixed session Monday in the wake of the G7 FinMin meeting. The main highlight of that session was when U.S. Secretary Lew took the unusual step of warning Japan publicly against forex intervention. The USDJPY is lower as a result. EURJPY is sharply lower as well.

  • Flash PMI data from Japan were weak. Flash PMI data from Europe sent mixed messages. Some missed street estimates, but gained mo/mo, nevertheless. The U.S. economic calendar today was thin with the the Markit PMI coming in weaker and just above the "boom or Bust 50 line". Canada was closed for Victoria Day.

  • Fed Funds futures traded a touch weaker (slightly higher rates) after St. Louis Fed President Bullard said he sees more factors in favor of slow interest rate rises than in favor no increase at all. I suspect he is talking the Fed party line.

John M.Bland MBA
co-founder global-View.com


GVI Forex Blog 20:05 GMT May 23, 2016
CHART POINTS: Free Forex Database
Reply   



Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format

CHART POINTS: Free Forex Database

nw kw 19:37 GMT May 23, 2016
Tuesday Trading

market still moves on aud time zone a lot presser in this week.

GVI Trading Room john 18:35 GMT May 23, 2016
Tuesday Trading
Reply   
the highlight Tuesday is the german ZEW Survey which is often used as an indicator of how the closely followed IFO survey will turn out on Wednesday.

NY JM 17:11 GMT May 23, 2016
Monday Trade

No apparent catalyst for USDJPY continuing to slide and it is dragging the dollar a touch lower. One of those Mondays that is hard to explain but not worth fighting the flows.

GVI Trading Room john 16:36 GMT May 23, 2016
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Markets Late In Europe

You might have to refresh page to update table below

Mixed EUR crosses and equities

tokyo joyya 15:27 GMT May 23, 2016
long jpy!

look like spx listing to me start lowering haha lets see

Mtl JP 15:26 GMT May 23, 2016
Monday Trade

.

us 2-yr paper yield 0.9092 %

tokyo joyya 15:16 GMT May 23, 2016
long jpy!

stox time

tokyo joyya 15:13 GMT May 23, 2016
long jpy!

ok look like time for go dwn....

Mtl JP 15:10 GMT May 23, 2016
DRAGHI NIRP

Nobody wants that. Except the few companies.
-
monsanto + bayer = two killers in one
and with respect to Brexit: bureaucrats in Europe are trying to fine people who grow seeds from their own stocks... how good an idea is that, and how dangerous ? That alone - speaking just for myself - is good nuff reason to get shot of the EU. How the vote will turn out is another matter.

PAR 15:08 GMT May 23, 2016
US STOCKS
Reply   
US stocks move higher as crude oil cuts losses .

GVI Forex Blog 15:02 GMT May 23, 2016
GVI Data Calendar for 24 May 2016
Reply   


May 23, 2016 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Tuesday, May 24, 2016.

  • Far East: JP- trade
  • Europe: EZ- ZEW
  • North America: US- New Homes Sales, Richmond Fed, 2-yr, API

WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:
24-May TUESDAY
09:00 DE- ZEW Survey
14:00 CA- BOC Rates
14:00 US- New Home Sales
25-May WEDNESDAY
08:00 DE- IFO Survey
09:00 EZ- GDP
14:30 US- EIA Crude
26-May THURSDAY
08:30 GB- GDP
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
12:30 US- Durable Goods Orders
13:45 US- flash Service PMI
14:00 US- Pending Homes Sales
27-May FRIDAY
12:30 US- GDP
14:00 US- University of Michigan Survey

GVI Data Calendar for 24 May 2016

Mtl JP 14:33 GMT May 23, 2016
BREAKING NEWS



US banks appear to have found their mojo
as long as they stay above the pink line things r ok

PAR 14:32 GMT May 23, 2016
DRAGHI NIRP
Reply   
Bayer buying Monsanto one of the stupid byproducts of NIRP . It leads to job losses , less competition and an unbelievable concentration of power in a few companies .

Nobody wants that .

Livingston nh 14:31 GMT May 23, 2016
BREXIT

PAR - my understanding is the ex-pats don't vote and some of the Scots might see an opportunity to re-run the Scottish exit vote if they vote for Brexit (political motivation is sometimes counter intuitive)

Might not hit right away but even a REMAIN vote will be disruptive because the political wounds may be deeper

PAR 14:17 GMT May 23, 2016
BREXIT
Reply   
BREXIT is a joke . No way they gone vote to leave the EU betting sites show you . They will vote as the Scotts did with their WALLET.

Do nor forget there are about 3 million british citizens living in Europe.

The FED even mentioning the word BREXIT is just ridiculous.

Jkt Abel 14:13 GMT May 23, 2016
Join the tour

Good size stops above 0.7270 aud fwiw

HK Kwun 14:04 GMT May 23, 2016
Join the tour
Reply   
Sell Gold
Entry: 1247 Target: Stop: 1257

Sell now

GVI Trading Room john 13:58 GMT May 23, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

PAR: from the perspective of today I get the feeling the Fed does not hike on June 15 because of Brexit, but I do think they plan to hike on July 27 unless something unexpected surfaces.

PAR 13:54 GMT May 23, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

No US rate hike would be bad news for US banks . No higher interest rate revenues. Mama Mia .

GVI Forex Blog 13:53 GMT May 23, 2016
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. flash Markit PMI Misses Estimates
Reply   

U.S. flash Markit Mfg PMI May 2016
U.S. flash Markit Mfg PMI. Markit mfg PMI Misses estimates. Approaching contraction

BREAKING NEWS: U.S. flash Markit PMI Misses Estimates

PAR 13:48 GMT May 23, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

Markit PMI lowest since oct 2009

GVI Forex john bland 13:45 GMT May 23, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

U.S. flash Markit Mfg PMI May 2016





ALERT
50.5 vs. 51.0 exp. vs. 50.8 prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer

Markit PMI Press Release

GVI Trading Room john 13:31 GMT May 23, 2016
Monday Trade

Markit Mfg PMI is seen about flat at just over the 50 line. Markit PMI is still a second tier report.

GVI Trading Room Jay Meisler 13:15 GMT May 23, 2016
La Nina - Hurricanes

Sydney ACC, can you email me pls [email protected]

Sydney ACC 13:06 GMT May 23, 2016
La Nina - Hurricanes

NSW is well and truly in the grip of El Nino.
The last time it rained in Sydney was on 23rd April exactly a month ago - that was coastal, inland hasn't had a decent fall for months.
Furthermore with barely a week until winter the maximum daily temperature in Sydney has fallen below 20 degrees on only one day this year.
Showers are predicted for Wednesday.

PAR 12:57 GMT May 23, 2016
La Nina - Hurricanes
Reply   
Now the ocean’s surface is starting to cool, which may signal the start of a La Nina. Scientists say this pattern typically contributes to more hurricanes in the Atlantic, drought in Brazil and heavy rain in Indonesia and India. While it might give a boost to U.S. natural gas, it could hurt Australian coal operations and palm-oil output in Malaysia. For some areas, it may be worse than a typical El Nino.

nw kw 12:44 GMT May 23, 2016
If no surprises gold will sink to 1240.

Room john- gold might be linked to rand

PAR 12:42 GMT May 23, 2016
Lord of wars
Reply   
Vietnam Arms Embargo to Be Fully Lifted, Obama Says in Hanoi

tokyo joyya 12:34 GMT May 23, 2016
long jpy!

expect for spx go below 2000/2010 with in 24hours then open the door real bear move...

Kl Fs 12:24 GMT May 23, 2016
Monday Trade

Agree nh. It all starts today!! Sell commodities !! And commod currecies too

Livingston nh 12:17 GMT May 23, 2016
Monday Trade

Thanx Jay - I missed that

GVI Trading Room Jay Meisler 12:15 GMT May 23, 2016
Monday Trade

nh, May 31end of month is next Tuesday

Livingston nh 12:14 GMT May 23, 2016
Monday Trade

The next thirty days are loaded for volatility - today and tomorrow in stox see if the typical bullish OPEX Friday gets unwound (the Fed may see turmoil here first) // the Treasury yield curve may flatten again IF (A CB word) market responds to the barrage of Fed talk -- Friday is EoM for US, then Payrolls and Yellen w/ Brexit hanging over many markets (I'm sure some Hedges can be put on hawkish Fed and Brexit)

G-7 may have set the stage for Yen -- I think Japan is more concerned w/ currency of its rivals/customers in Asia than the lame duck quack of the US Treasury Sec'y // US politics may muddy things up a bit as well as the most populous state goes to the Primary polls - AND the current tenant of the White House seems determined to start small fires as he exits

Of course oil has cheered the economic wizards BUT too much Fed chickenhawk talk might strengthen the USD and hit commodities

It all starts today!

nw kw 12:12 GMT May 23, 2016
Exclusive Brexit Poll Update: Should You Trust the Polls?

gold imbalance in 30day net change, gbpjpy, hottest change, gbp tuned soft but eurgbp can run up, this fast take risk,gl.kw.

GVI Forex Blog 11:54 GMT May 23, 2016
Exclusive Brexit Poll Update: Should You Trust the Polls?
Reply   

The price action in sterling, which rose sharply mid-week following the latest public polls indicating a wide swing in favor of remaining in the EU, shows the sensitivity to any apparent shift in sentiment. I use the word apparent due to the sharp contrast between public polls and online polls, including ours, which continues to show a strong expectation for Brexit (see results below). For example, an online poll published on Friday showed a 4 point lead for Leave vs. an 18 point lead for Remain in the Guardian/ICM phone poll released on Wednesday. .

Exclusive Brexit Poll Update: Should You Trust the Polls?

 

Mtl JP 11:28 GMT May 23, 2016
BREXIT

Mr Hilton: ‘A decision to leave the EU is not without risk. But I believe it is the ideal and idealistic choice for our times: taking back power from arrogant, unaccountable, hubristic elites and putting it where it belongs – in people’s hands.’

Why we MUST quit the EU, by Cameron's guru: Friend and strategist Steve Hilton breaks ranks on Brexit to say Britain will be 'literally ungovernable' unless we take back power from the self-serving elite

GVI Trading Room john 11:16 GMT May 23, 2016
BREAKING NEWS: flash EZ PMIs Miss Estimates

I said earlier EZ PMIs were weaker vs. estimates. A much better characterization would have been MIXED. fwiw the final PMI reports typically do not change a lot from the flash data. I'm not clear about the need for both flash and final readings about one week apart.

HK [email protected] 11:08 GMT May 23, 2016
If no surprises gold will sink to 1240.
Reply   

But with world economies on chickenlegs things may happen.

GVI Trading Room john 11:02 GMT May 23, 2016
Monday Trade

DAX -77
DJ --28
SP -3.75

US 1.824% -2.5
DE 0.154% -1.7
GB 1.412% -2.4

EUR mixed on its crosses
WTI $47.74 -0.67

tokyo joyya 10:55 GMT May 23, 2016
long jpy!

again after europe close us session fall hard..

GVI Forex john bland 10:45 GMT May 23, 2016
Monday Trade
Reply   
Trading Themes --

  • The USD is trading mixed heading into the N.Y. open. At the G7 FinMin meeting, U.S. Secretary Lew took the unusual step of warning Japan publicly against forex intervention. The USDJPY is lower as a result. The EURJPY is lower as well.

  • Flash PMI data from Japan were weak earlier today. Flash PMI data from Europe sent mixed messages. Some missed street estimates, but gained nevertheless. The economic calendar today is thin. Canada is closed for a holiday. Recently traders also have been keeping a close eye on equities.

  • St. Louis Fed President Bullard said today that he sees more factors in favor of slow interest rate rises, than no increase at all. I wonder if he was talking the Fed party line?

John M.Bland MBA
co-founder global-View.com


Mtl JP 10:35 GMT May 23, 2016
YEN

How is a text full of verbs in past tense a "Markets Outlook" ?

Singapore SC 10:24 GMT May 23, 2016
GBP
Reply   
Is there news on gbp?

GVI Trading Room john 10:21 GMT May 23, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

I am taking this Bullard statement as a reinforcing comment for an early Fed tightening. I agree you have to be careful trying to read anything into Fed comments, but for the moment I think they might be singing from the same sheet.

GVI Trading Room john 10:17 GMT May 23, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

Bullard:
-- Sees more factors in favor of slow interest hikes than none at all

Source: TTN

perth wtr 10:15 GMT May 23, 2016
strong usd is good for Yellen?
Reply   
usd found bid today
maybe it is good for Yellen and co

PAR 10:09 GMT May 23, 2016
YEN
Reply   
Markets Outlook:

Forex:


The yen gained against its rival currencies during Asian trade, as Japan reported a surprising trade surplus and weaker Tokyo stocks prompted buying of the safety of the Japanese currency.

Japan reported that its April trade surplus far exceeded forecasts, coming in at Y823.5 billion, well above the market forecast for Y535 billion.

Tokyo-based dealers said the inability of Group of Seven finance ministers to break new ground on coordinated policy action provided a catalyst for adjustments after recent dollar-buying.

On Saturday, G7 financial ministers and central bank chiefs ended a two-day meeting in northern Japan without agreement on a more balanced policy mix that might have included coordinated fiscal stimulus or alignment of divergent monetary policies.

"I think we can say that nothing in particular from the G7 meeting prompted the adjustment," after investors built up U.S. dollar-long positions in recent sessions, said Mizuho Bank senior vice president Toshiyuki Umekawa.

PAR 08:46 GMT May 23, 2016
GERMANY
Reply   
DJ Frankfurt Stocks Turn Positive On Strong PMI Data -- Market Talk

0836 GMT Having slipped at the open, Frankfurt stocks gain 0.5% after PMI data for May beat expectations. The data show private sector activity in Germany increased at the fastest pace for five months, with both the services and factory sectors stronger than forecast. Infineon, up 2.9% and Adidas, up 2% are the biggest gainers. ([email protected])

GVI Forex Blog 08:29 GMT May 23, 2016
BREAKING NEWS: flash Japan PMI Weak
Reply   

Japan flash PMI May 2016 EARLIER: Japan flash PMI weaker.

BREAKING NEWS: flash Japan PMI Weak

GVI Forex Blog 08:20 GMT May 23, 2016
BREAKING NEWS: flash EZ PMIs Miss Estimates
Reply   
EZ flash PMIs. mixed vs. estimates.



GVI Trading Room john 08:03 GMT May 23, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

PMIs mixed vs. expectations

GVI Forex john bland 08:00 GMT May 23, 2016
BREAKING NEWS
Reply   
EZ Flash PMIs May 2016
Global-VIew EZ and German Charts






ALERT
EZ
mfg: 51.5 vs. 51.9 exp. vs. 51.7 prev.
svc: 53.1 vs. 53.2 exp. vs. 53.1 prev.

German
mfg: 52.4 vs. 51.8 exp. vs. 51.8
svc: 55.2 vs. 54.6 exp. vs. 54.5

France
mfg: 48.3 vs. 51.8 vs. 49.0 exp. vs. 48.0
svc: 51.8 vs. 50.6 exp. vs. 50.6


Markit PMI Press Release



TTN: Live News Special Offer

tokyo joyya 07:15 GMT May 23, 2016
long jpy!

short till 23june

tokyo joyya 07:13 GMT May 23, 2016
long jpy!

seems fun today and tomorrow keep short spx 2050/60....i was outside at work today...

tokyo joyya 07:12 GMT May 23, 2016
long jpy!
Reply   
Sell USDJPY
Entry: Target: Stop:

now keep short jpy pairs and stox....do not go long...

HK HK 00:58 GMT May 23, 2016
Trade Off The Cretins Corner

Risk off start to the week, Nikkei down

 




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