HK [email protected] 23:26 GMT June 14, 2016
Gold 1303.8 strong Res.
Reply
Bears will try to use it if seen, to stop price rise.
A breach of this 1303.8, is an evaporation of the monthly key reversal.
Maybe a very strong USD on theway.
Tallinn viies 21:06 GMT June 14, 2016
eurusd
Reply
MSCI to Delay China A-Shares in Emerging Markets Index
Tallinn viies 20:45 GMT June 14, 2016
eurusd
Reply
API builds all over the places
crude + 1.5M insteed of -1.4M
gasoline +2.25M insteed of -1.25M
distill + +3.7M insteed of -0.75M
so if tommorow EIA numbers show US domestic production growing again then brent down to 46
all imho
Mtl JP 20:39 GMT June 14, 2016
BREAKING NEWS
just look at that usdcad fly after an initial reaction dip
and screw API.
currently usd bid dominates is my take-away
Mtl JP 20:26 GMT June 14, 2016
may ... MAY tumble
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard ?? lol
suddenly he "got it" what the EU is all about
dc CB 20:23 GMT June 14, 2016
may ... MAY tumble
apparently someone at the Guardian thinks this is "racist"
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/14/leave-eu-cartoon-racist-nazi-brexit-antisemitism-1945
Leave cartoon
GVI Trading Room john 20:17 GMT June 14, 2016
Wednesday Trading
Reply
WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:
15-Jun WEDNESDAY
08:30 GB- Employment
13:15 US- Industrial Production
14:30 US- Crude
18:00 US- Fed Decision
16-Jun THURSDAY
00:30 AU- Employment
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
07:30 CH- SNB Decision
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
11:00 GB- BOE Decision
12:30 US- CPI
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
17-Jun FRIDAY
12:30 CA- CPI
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
Trading Themes --
- The major event Wednesday is the latest U.S. Federal Reserve policy decision. Fed Funds futures odds on a rate hike are now zero. I expect the FOMC to take a hawkish posture again. There has been no major news since Yellen last spoke. One problem the Fed faces is a complete lack of credibility following years of over-optimistic economic forecasts. Odds on a July rate hike are a scant 16%.
- This a big week for other central bank decisions with the BOJ, BOE and SNB meeting on Thursday. We don't see any of them changing rates.
- The other major focus has been the U.K. Brexit Referendum vote on next Thursday, June 23. Against conventional wisdom, recent polls have been showing the "Leave" vote continuing to gather momentum. One has to wonder if the wave of anti-establishment sentiment in the U.S. and U.K. is going to build momentum elsewhere. The GBP is now pricing in a close Brexit victory.
- The German 10-yr has dipped below zero for the first time ever as investors within the Eurozone bought German paper and sold lower quality EZ debt. This is due to worry on how a U.K. exit vote could undermine the EU experiment. The Japanese yield curve is now negative out to 15-yrs. On this score, increased demand for gold makes sense.
John M. Bland, MBA
co-founder Global-View.com
dc CB 20:14 GMT June 14, 2016
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off
what a bunch of wankers.
all it takes is a pullback from this year's high and the wusses are running around like the sky is falling.
Tallinn viies 20:08 GMT June 14, 2016
eurusd
Reply
API forecasts:
crude -1.4M (-3.56 pr)
gasoline -1.25M (+0.76M)
distil -0.75M (+0.27)
Tallinn viies 17:56 GMT June 14, 2016
eurusd
Reply
oil and brent will be sold heavily before brexit vote as risk limits (var, risk mandates and trading limits) will be cut and possible at least 6 standard deviation move could come next week.
JEddah Abb 17:31 GMT June 14, 2016
Gbpcad
Reply
I will try to buy gbpcad now 1.817
Target and stop later..
GVI Forex Blog 17:09 GMT June 14, 2016
GVI Data Calendar for 15 June 2016
Reply
June 14, 2016 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Wednesday, June 15, 2016. Trading News Calendar
- Far East: No Major Data
- Europe: GB- Employment
- North America: US- PPI, Empire PMI, Industrial Production, Crude, Fed Decision, TIC Data
WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:
15-Jun WEDNESDAY
08:30 GB- Employment
13:15 US- Industrial Production
14:30 US- Crude
18:00 US- Fed Decision
16-Jun THURSDAY
00:30 AU- Employment
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
07:30 CH- SNB Decision
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
11:00 GB- BOE Decision
12:30 US- CPI
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
17-Jun FRIDAY
12:30 CA- CPI
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
GVI Data Calendar for 15 June 2016
Mtl JP 16:14 GMT June 14, 2016
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off
digi-finance n digi-banking are nothing but computer networks too. imagine 3-5days without and ... cant' fill your car w/gas or get some groceries
How Meals Away from Anarchy ?
GVI Trading Room john 16:00 GMT June 14, 2016
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off
Note below
1) Risk-Off trade continues in equities.
2) Clearly flows within EZ out of the weaker credits to German 10-yr.
3) EUR crosses mostly weaker
4) Funds flowing into short-dated CHF.
5) No Fed rate hike expected tomorrow.
dc CB 15:50 GMT June 14, 2016
Tuesday Tradng
About $1 trillion of S&P 500 options expire this week.
watched The Big Short last nite on DVD. They were trading in single digit $Billions. A $15bln loss was Huge.
Obviously they were all pikers by today's standards.
Mtl JP 15:49 GMT June 14, 2016
Brexit odds
actually it is extremely highly unlikely that UK will be leaving by end of 2016 even in a resounding yes vote if only for the logistics of such an exercise probably taking 2 or more years.
GVI Trading Room john 15:48 GMT June 14, 2016
BREAKING NEWS
Atlanta Fed GDP Now forecast for 2Q16 GDP +2.80% p.a., vs. 2.5% on June 9.
-- Source: TTN
GVI Trading Room john 15:45 GMT June 14, 2016
Tuesday Tradng
Odds for a late July Fed rate hike now only 14%. Odds on tomorrow 0%.
tokyo joyya 15:31 GMT June 14, 2016
Brexit odds
Buy GBPUSD
Entry: 1.41 Target: open Stop: 50pips
going long.....
Mtl JP 15:26 GMT June 14, 2016
Brexit odds
somebody please get out of way of gravity
Mtl JP 15:13 GMT June 14, 2016
Brexit odds
1.41 is just a price point with some current arguing going on.
patience ... give it time and some slack pips
london red 14:59 GMT June 14, 2016
Brexit odds
more chance of fed increasing rates this week than boe intervening in fx mkt today or at all ie. zero chance. a close below 14190/142 is the one to watch. it will draw in sellers tomorrow unless goes under 14050 as well in which case they will chase it lower.
LONDON SFH 14:51 GMT June 14, 2016
Brexit odds
JP-price action has been obvious -should have ripped through 1.4100 imo
Mtl JP 14:49 GMT June 14, 2016
Brexit odds
SFH 14:06 what makes suspicious of a prop-up ?
1.4120-ish yesty's low now poof
puppy is a sell rallies while under 1.42/43
HK Kwun 14:26 GMT June 14, 2016
1280 new support
Buy Gold
Entry: 1281 Target: Stop: 1271
TP at 1289, bye
LONDON SFH 14:23 GMT June 14, 2016
Brexit odds
it looks that way John-smoothing operation-if it is them they will pull out in 40 minutes...
GVI Trading Room john 14:21 GMT June 14, 2016
Brexit odds
SFH- Quiet BOE intervention would not surprise me.
LONDON SFH 14:12 GMT June 14, 2016
Brexit odds
TNS poll out now saying 47% leave, 40% stay
LONDON SFH 14:06 GMT June 14, 2016
Brexit odds
lookls like cable is being propped up today....
LONDON SFH 13:51 GMT June 14, 2016
Brexit odds
Don't you find it amazing that after all the regulation etc to stop traders form acting like gamblers in a casino, here we are all sat watching the odds at the bookmakers?
GVI Trading Room 13:35 GMT June 14, 2016
Brexit odds
09:26 William Hill on upcoming EU Referendum: Brexit odds: "Remain" camp at 8/15; "Leave" camp at 6/4
- Ladbrokes on upcoming EU referendum: Brexit odds: "Remain" camp at 4/7; "Leave" camp at 11/8
- Source TradeTheNews.com
dc CB 13:35 GMT June 14, 2016
Tuesday Tradng
In these parts,
We hang shorts by the neck,
Pardner.
dc CB 13:25 GMT June 14, 2016
Tuesday Tradng
Yellen Faces Rate Dilemma as U.S. Economy Runs Short of Workers?????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????
London AzaForex 12:52 GMT June 14, 2016
Trading recommendations on the currency pair GBPCHF 14-06-2
Reply
Sell GBPCHF
Entry: 1.3600 Target: 1.3460 Stop:
Learn how to become a successful foreign exchange trader.
The British Pound continues its downward dive. More recently, we opened short positions on this pair, which have already reached the goal, and we got profit. Judging by the fact that nothing really has changed in the attitudes of traders and investors in the Forex market, this pair may fall further in price. The graph shows that the price could be kept at the level of 1.3600, only thanks to smooth price level of support level. If the bears continue their onslaught the pound can stay alone. The Swiss franc looks stronger and therefore in case of breakdown of the support level, we again go short.
The price is below a simple moving average 200 MA and 20 MA indicating bearish trend.
The MACD trend indicator is below zero level now, indicating bearish movement.
If the support level is broken you can use the following recommendation:
• Chart timeframe: H4
• The trade recommendation: Sell
• The level of entry into short position 1.3600
• The level of profit and close the position: 1.3460 (140 pips)
LONDON SFH 12:34 GMT June 14, 2016
Tuesday Tradng
Livingston nh 12:27 GMT 06/14/2016
Comment on the effects of Brexit on the EU
GVI Trading Room john 12:32 GMT June 14, 2016
BREAKING NEWS
Retail Sales stromger than expected
Livingston nh 12:27 GMT June 14, 2016
Tuesday Tradng
Periphery yields srill rising as Germany goes negative - Comment on confidence in ECB?
Mtl JP 12:05 GMT June 14, 2016
Tuesday Tradng
all u need to know for today's trading theme
usd's bias
LONDON SFH 11:54 GMT June 14, 2016
Brexit odds
Perhaps those surveyed are less enamoured with Russia after scenes at weekend in Marseilles..
HK [email protected] 11:38 GMT June 14, 2016
Brexit odds
It is Britain leaving the eurozone, or disgusted British citizens leaving Britain to other places.
It could be seen in the big percentage of British who are willing(if could) to get lands in Eastern Russia'
................................................................................................
The British tabloid(Express newspaper) survey found 78 percent of the more than 22,000 respondents replied “Yes! Bargain” when asked: “Would you move to Russia in exchange for free land?”
One respondent told the paper there was something romantic about the idea of homesteading in the Russian wilderness.
“As soon as I read about it, my wife and I discussed it,” Simon Sharp said.
“There’s a certain amount of romanticism. The idea of going back to nature in such a remote area. It would be down to us to test our mettle.
“There’s also definitely disillusionment with the UK, with British life. We’re all subservient, we won’t know what’s going on.”
Sharp also cited Britain’s “change in demographics” and growing urbanization as reasons for moving to Russia’s Far East Federal District.
See link below.
80% of Brits want to move to Russia after Duma considers giving out free land - poll
haifa ac 11:29 GMT June 14, 2016
Brexit odds
War over what?
Land? Minerals? other resources?
The only valuable property in today's world is the minds of the geniuses who are inventing the new robots and AI.
The geeks and the nerds of yesterday are the rulers of the world. They will decide the next "war".
Forget traditional wars for ever!
london red 11:26 GMT June 14, 2016
Brexit odds
because of recent history, germans are hyper sensitive to inflation and war, their approach to ecb printing and US push into iraq perfect examples. plus there are no grounds for war and never will between various countries within western europe.
the uk is a unique case for leaving eurozone. makes less sense for those more central, integrated and less self sufficient.
Mtl JP 11:20 GMT June 14, 2016
Brexit odds
45 yrs EU was peddled as free trade zone ("the Common Market")
Its real ambition was and is that of a federal superstate: it is sovereignty and democratic values oppressor.
The modern-day castle-building princes are no friends of little people.
HK Kwun 11:13 GMT June 14, 2016
1280 new support
Buy Gold
Entry: 1281 Target: Stop: 1271
1280 is support again
LONDON SFH 11:08 GMT June 14, 2016
Brexit odds
The cost financially is huge and Europe has never had a longer period of peace than since the 2nd WW
LONDON SFH 11:03 GMT June 14, 2016
Brexit odds
And that happens with no wars?
Mtl JP 11:01 GMT June 14, 2016
Brexit odds
Freedom will be winner IF the EU should dis-integrate eventually
LONDON SFH 10:39 GMT June 14, 2016
Brexit odds
UK OM 10:27 GMT 06/14/2016
both- That's the stupidity of it all- There is no winner
UK OM 10:27 GMT June 14, 2016
Brexit odds
Odds have certainly come in and those who wagered 1:6 for remain are sucking wind.
My question is who is worse off, the EU or UK on a Brexit?
london red 09:42 GMT June 14, 2016
Brexit odds
although less certain, remain is still odds on favorite at the bookies. ive taken some profit on the binary trade as it went quite sharply from 70 at the weekend to as low as 55 today. no doubt we will get a few polls going the way of remain and it will serve as an op to reweight positions.
with the above in mind brexit in nowhere near priced into gbp. even if just considering the initial spike, its nowhere near as mkt still convinced remain will win the day. fair enough, they are calling it a close call now and more hedging/selling of uk assets is taking place, but nothing is close to being price in, at least as far as the initial move is concerned. secondary moves, off the result, will be ops too, possibly bigger, certainly if looked at on an up to 1 year timeframe (tho i wouldnt be surprised to see things play out much faster given the jam today approach mkt players now have). i will approach all this shortly before the vote focusing on the curerency pairs to be affected initially and lt and also uk assets.
Mtl JP 09:31 GMT June 14, 2016
Brexit odds
London red both ECB and Carney have said they are prepared for "dangers" of possible Brexit.
How do u read that preparation - could the cretins try to slam their euro to 0.7-0.5 under the brexit danger cover .
I am also wondering what price point would be approximate "leave" priced-in level.
as always: tia
Mtl JP 09:19 GMT June 14, 2016
Tuesday Tradng
risk shmisk ... I prefer looking at it as trade opportunity
US 10-YR 1.5703 %
Bund 10-Yr -0.024 %
Japan 10 Year -0.176 %
-
more warning from dealer about margin
this time that the margin requirement could be "subject to further increases without additional warning"... prior and after the brexit vote
I see 3 potential solutions to the whims of dealer:
- increase account cash (with the risk that it dis-appears IF the dealer goes POOF)
- reduce tickets' size to smallest size / reduce trading volume
- clear trading deck and join gov't employees on the beach for a week or so
GVI Trading Room john 08:51 GMT June 14, 2016
Tuesday Tradng
WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:
14-Jun TUESDAY
08:30 GB- CPI
12:30 US- Retail Sales
15-Jun WEDNESDAY
00:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Employment
13:15 US- Industrial Production
14:30 US- Crude
18:00 US- Fed Decision
16-Jun THURSDAY
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
07:30 CH- SNB Decision
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
11:00 GB- BOE Decision
12:30 US- CPI
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
17-Jun FRIDAY
12:30 CA- CPI
12:30 CA- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
Trading Themes --
- A top focus for traders Tuesday will be the latest U.S. Retail Sales Report. The U.S. economy is driven by the consumer, so this is a key release. Dealers will want to look beyond the headline figures to the core and retail Sales ex-autos and gas for a better evaluation of the underlying strength of the economy. U.K. CPI data were softer.
- Monday saw two closely-followed U.K. polls indicate the "Leave" vote continues to gain momentum. One has to wonder if the anti-establishment wave in the U.S. and U.K. is going to build momentum elsewhere. The U.K. Brexit vote takes place next week on Thursday June 23. The GBP is now pricing in a Brexit victory.
- The U.S. Federal Reserve announces its latest policy decision on Wednesday. Fed Funds fuitures odds on a rate hike are now zero. This a big week for central bank decisions with the BOJ, BOE and SNB meeting. We don't see any of them changing rates.
- Late last week saw a move out of some of the lower quality EZ debt. This is due to worry on how a U.K. exit vote could undermine EU unity. German, Japan and US government paper are preferred since they are generally seen as safer. The German 10-yr has dipped below zero for the first time. The Japanese yield curve is now negative out to 15-yrs. On this score, increased demand for gold makes sense.
John M. Bland, MBA
co-founder Global-View.com
london red 08:48 GMT June 14, 2016
BREAKING NEWS
euro. 11220. fib/100dma/prev low. close abv/below pivotal. if below opens up fibs at 11061/87. if manages to stay abv, still look to fade rallies 113-11350 with stops over 11358/63
london red 08:34 GMT June 14, 2016
Brexit odds
RF, yest eurchf made a textbook test of 200dma from the downside after breaking below on friday. there were plnety of sellers so chf still exhibiting safe haven properties particular against non usd. usd is sheltered from euro/brexit so while chf does better than euro vs usd, it still loses. but chf vs europe doing v well.
GVI Trading Room john 08:31 GMT June 14, 2016
BREAKING NEWS
UK CPI data a touch light. GBP softer.
HK [email protected] 08:29 GMT June 14, 2016
Brexit odds
But the Swissy is not acting as a safe haven(at least doesn't drop), or is it in the same
risk-basket with the EURO?
Or the whole world economy is in the same risk-basket with the Euro?
london red 08:26 GMT June 14, 2016
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off
cable firming slightly ahead of cpi. after oil rise, risk of surprise may be to upside, hence some covering pre data. but as long as cable under 14190/142, bias is for lower. can be some sharp covering above there, but still you would fade any extreme moves higher ahead of brexit vote.
barriers said to be at 140/14050. also yen fwiw barriers at 105 and 10550.
GVI Trading Room 08:06 GMT June 14, 2016
Tuesday Tradng
Reply
Can we get back to trading. It is UK and Brexit reficng risk that is dominating
Ldn Cashman 07:46 GMT June 14, 2016
Brexit odds
Reply
The bookies marking the odds for Brexit down sharply again this morning following The Sun front page. Just dealt at 1.2/1 on Betfair. Maybe odds on later today.
Hong Kong 05:26 GMT June 14, 2016
AceTrader Jun 14: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views GBP/USD
Reply
14 Jun 2016 03:22GMT
GBP/USD - ...... Cable erased yesterday's gain in New York after price rebounded from a near 2-month European low of 1.4116 to 1.4330 in New York.
Traders reacted by buying sterling in New York morning when certain newswire erroneously reported the 'Remain' camp was 6 points ahead and that resulted in a fierce short-covering rally, price briefly fell back to 1.4201 after latest poll results showed the 'Leave ' camp was ahead, traders were in no mood of selling the pound after intra-day wild swings.
Latest polls results on Reuters as follow :
"Leave" on 46 pct, "Remain" 39 pct -YouGov poll; "Leave" on 49 pct, "Remain" 48 pct -ORB poll; "Out" on 53 pct, "In" 47 pct -ICM polls and Sun says UK must set itself free from "dictatorial Brussels".
Offers and bids...forget about them for the time being.
Pay attention to a slew of U.K. inflation data at 08:30GMT, however, market reaction from these data will only be very temporary.
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