Dillon AL 20:56 GMT June 15, 2016
Wednesday Trading
In a "normal" market bank stocks have been historically valued at 9x.
cheap would be around 4 to 5x
DB is currently 16.5 x EPS
What this shows is not the degree that DB is in trouble but rather the degree of current QE supporting ridiculous valuations.
I wonder what a 5 euro put is worth
GVI Trading Room john 20:24 GMT June 15, 2016
Thursday Trading
WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:
16-Jun THURSDAY
00:30 AU- Employment
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
07:30 CH- SNB Decision
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
11:00 GB- BOE Decision
12:30 US- CPI
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
17-Jun FRIDAY
12:30 CA- CPI
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
Trading Themes --
- The dovishness off the latest U.S. Federal Reserve policy decision surprised markets Wednesday. While leaving the door open for future rate hikes, markets remained skeptical. Fed Funds futures odds on a rate hike in July are now a scant 8% and they only price in 50-50 odds on one hike by year-end. The yield on the 10-yr fell to 1.582%, -4.0bp on the day. One problem the Fed continues to face is a lack of credibility after years of over-optimistic economic forecasts.
- Thursday is a big day for central bank decisions with the BOJ, BOE and SNB meeting. Markets see none of these key institutions changing interest rates.
- The major remaining focus is the U.K. Brexit Referendum vote next Thursday (June 23). Against conventional wisdom, recent polls have been showing the "Leave" vote continuing to gather momentum. Option traders say the GBP prices in a narrow Brexit victory.
- The German 10-yr yield continued to fall, reaching -0.012%, -1.2bp on flight to safety demand. Earlier this week investors within the Eurozone were buying German paper and selling lower quality EZ debt. This activity slowed Wednesday. Flight to safety demand is due to worry a U.K. exit vote could undermine the EU experiment.
John M. Bland, MBA
co-founder Global-View.com
GVI Trading Room john 20:22 GMT June 15, 2016
Thursday Trading
Reply
Market Sentiment Indicators
DIVERGENCE: Fed is not the focus at the moment. Brexit the key issue:
20-day avg 1.1236
Pivot Point 1.1251
The Fed Funds Market Sentiment Indicator shows flight to safety pressures easing slightly. Odds for one rate hike by yearend are 42% from 69% late Tuesday. This marks a major shift in Fed policy SENTIMENT.
Livingston nh 19:13 GMT June 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS
Mail it in Yellen - nothing new from this bunch // back to Brexit tomorrow
dc CB 19:12 GMT June 15, 2016
Wednesday Trading
"did this Chart come up during the past 2 days' discussions?"
Yellen: "What is a DB?"
Tallinn viies 18:58 GMT June 15, 2016
eurusd
Reply
why stocks are not flying already?
Yellen must be desperate
london red 18:46 GMT June 15, 2016
Wednesday Trading
can always count on ft! so if brexit no july rate hike pretty much on all levels, +200k nfp excepted.
london red 18:39 GMT June 15, 2016
Wednesday Trading
she may be wanting to avoid mentioning brexit, to avoid polarising usd after vote. but would help us traders if mentioned, will make usd vs safe havens easier to trade.
dc CB 18:32 GMT June 15, 2016
Wednesday Trading
ZH headline sez it all
"US Dollar Dives As Confused Fed Sparks Safe-Haven Bid For Bonds & Bullion"
......................................................................
Yellen up next...demented and drooling, last chance for a 500Pt Dow Rally to make new highs and Wall Street bonus dreams for the first 1/2.
Quad Witching ....it's all up to the Good Witch of Wall Streeet
london red 18:31 GMT June 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS
11358-63 but keep the censored tight
uk dem 18:28 GMT June 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS
red, do you have a fade level if 1.13 gets taken out
london red 18:25 GMT June 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS
was a barrier at 10550, looked pretty tame to me. business end likely 105. fade initial approach maybe wortha shot as big boys likely swimming by the fig, likely to want to hold it into boj.
GVI Trading Room john 18:24 GMT June 15, 2016
Wednesday Trading
8% odds on a July rate hike vs 18%
48% odds on one rate hike by yearend
10-yr
US 1.581% -4.2bp
DE -0.012% -1.2 bp
london red 18:23 GMT June 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS
50% of 112/114 is at 11304 and the prev high off the last bounce. if clears that lot can squeeze to 11330. more stops abv there. shud see some interest to sell c 11359/63. abv which a fair bit of clear air to recent highs c 114. folks will be calm will under that 11304 but may be force to cover on a break (those short on brexit will need to cover pre vote, they maybe hoped for a dip on yellen to do it, so far none. but cover sooner or later they must, so a break abv 04 likely to see some followthru, certain if thru 11330).
Miami JN 18:20 GMT June 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS
usd/jpy 105.50 stops or buy?
NY JM 18:18 GMT June 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS
If there are stops they would be above 1.1300-04
london red 18:11 GMT June 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS
euro. 46 to watch on dwnside. if cannot break they will try upside by top of hour.
GVI Trading Room john 18:08 GMT June 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS
For release at 2:00 p.m. EDT
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in April indicates that the pace of improvement in the labor market has slowed while growth in economic activity appears to have picked up. Although the unemployment rate has declined, job gains have diminished. Growth in household spending has strengthened. Since the beginning of the year, the housing sector has continued to improve and the drag from net exports appears to have lessened, but business fixed investment has been soft. Inflation has continued to run below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run objective, partly reflecting earlier declines in energy prices and in prices of non-energy imports. Market-based measures of inflation compensation declined; most survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance, in recent months.
Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee currently expects that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace and labor market indicators will strengthen. Inflation is expected to remain low in the near term, in part because of earlier declines in energy prices, but to rise to 2 percent over the medium term as the transitory effects of past declines in energy and import prices dissipate and the labor market strengthens further. The Committee continues to closely monitor inflation indicators and global economic and financial developments.
Against this backdrop, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 1/4 to 1/2 percent. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting further improvement in labor market conditions and a return to 2 percent inflation.
In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. In light of the current shortfall of inflation from 2 percent, the Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected progress toward its inflation goal. The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant only gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data.
The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction, and it anticipates doing so until normalization of the level of the federal funds rate is well under way. This policy, by keeping the Committee's holdings of longer-term securities at sizable levels, should help maintain accommodative financial conditions.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; James Bullard; Stanley Fischer; Esther L. George; Loretta J. Mester; Jerome H. Powell; Eric Rosengren; and Daniel K. Tarullo.
GVI Forex Blog 17:39 GMT June 15, 2016
GVI Data Calendar for 16 June 2016
Reply
June 15, 2016 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Thursday, June 16, 2016. Trading News Calendar
- Far East: AU- Employment
- Europe: CH- SNB, GB- Retail Sales, BOE, EZ- final HICP
- North America: US- Current Account, CPI, Philly Fed, Weekly Jobless, NAHB, Natural Gas
WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:
16-Jun THURSDAY
00:30 AU- Employment
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
07:30 CH- SNB Decision
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
11:00 GB- BOE Decision
12:30 US- CPI
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
17-Jun FRIDAY
12:30 CA- CPI
12:30 CA- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
GVI Data Calendar for 16 June 2016
Livingston nh 15:39 GMT June 15, 2016
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Markets
treasury 2/10 spread keeps shrinking // watch the dots this afternoon // Yellen presser try to convince mkt "we still really, really mean it" -- need 3 dissents to revive July
Livingston nh 15:37 GMT June 15, 2016
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Markets
treasury 2/10 spread keeps shrinking // watch the dots this afternoon // Yellen presser try to convince mkt "we still really, really mean it" -- need 3 dissents to revive July
london red 15:36 GMT June 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS
euro. pre fed if seen on this squeeze. fade 11276/80 stop over 85. if fails a fade 11295-97 stop 11315.
yellens job should be to keep july alive. if june jobs is ok mkt will play to july, so she needs to survive until then. cannot turn tack now and look silly if june jobs shows recovery. if june jobs poor, she will go back to her v dovish self.
end of day straddle 50 pips euro. not much but not much expected either. still a bit early to cover gbp and euro shorts i think unless new lows hit, so mkt still shud fade any outsized jump in gbp and euro vs usd.
Amman wfakhoury 15:35 GMT June 15, 2016
GOLD 1285.50
Reply
Amman wfakhoury 08:08 GMT 06/15/2016
Gold will be back to 1285.50
______________
1285.50 reached
GVI Trading Room john 14:57 GMT June 15, 2016
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Markets
Buying Stox and bonds. I can't figure this out
EUR mixed on its crosses; USD weak
Hard to figure into Fed and Brexit
comments?
nw kw 14:52 GMT June 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS
bank cad cant be to good for audcad going up to fast and gbpcad so cad can get hit for commodity boys are getting out of cad.
HK [email protected] 14:24 GMT June 15, 2016
JPMorgan says Brexit lead for Leave bigger after removing hoax poll
Reply
Wed Jun 15, 2016 7:53am EDT
JP Morgan said on Wednesday that the lead across a range of opinion polls for campaigners seeking to get Britain out of the European Union has widened after the bank removed a hoax poll from its analysis.
"Leave" now had a 1.4 percentage-point lead over "Remain", analysts said in a research note.
(Reporting by Freya Berry; editing by William Schomberg)
LINK
HK [email protected] 14:15 GMT June 15, 2016
overbought
In principle indeed gold is Tech. O.B., and under monthly key reversal...so possibly 1289 recent Hi. may also make the monthly high, and gold may successfully return to 1265 Wafkury level with shortists traders who will be declared dead upon arrival or,.... if gold will defy all Tech. as market is much fundamental driven, and will stage a coup to the amazement of all. 1289 should be well watched if seen again.
GVI Trading Room john 14:11 GMT June 15, 2016
Wednesday Trading
Bond yields drifting back lower again
DE -0.006% -0.6bp
US 1.612% -1.0
Bund back in negative territory
HK Kwun 13:45 GMT June 15, 2016
overbought
Reply
Sell Gold
Entry: 1283 Target: Stop: 1293
Sell NOw
GVI Trading Room john 13:17 GMT June 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS
Industrial Production weaker than expected.
GVI Trading Room john 12:32 GMT June 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS
PPI and Empire PMI both stronger than forecast
GVI Trading Room john 11:53 GMT June 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS
Brexit Mori Poll (Scotland only) 58% stay 33% leave
Source: TTN
hk ab 11:20 GMT June 15, 2016
e/j
Reply
Nothing is easier to buy at each big fig - 50 and then, reload when new fig seen....
BOJ is always the good partner....
Mtl JP 11:15 GMT June 15, 2016
China; Breaking ground banking.
100 compounded at 30% more doubles in just three weeks
even GS is hard-pressed to make that kind of return
GVI Trading Room john 10:23 GMT June 15, 2016
Wednesday Trading
Fed Fund odds for a rate hike today are 2%. The odds for end of July meeting are 18%. Nevertheless, markets undoubtedly will trade on the announcement and Presser today.
LONDON SFH 09:50 GMT June 15, 2016
Bund Tap Results
Reply
LONDON, June 15 (IFR) – Germany has tapped €3.259bn 2/26 Bunds at an average yield of 0.01% in what are weak results overall.
€4bn 2/26 Bund 0.01%, b/c 1.1, BBK 18.5% (prev 0.14%, 1.27, 19.0% on May 18)
EUR3.656bn total bids were received, making for another technical failure, albeit the first since the new issue auction in February. This is also well under the €4.34bn average of the last three 10-year taps (each also for €4bn). €3.26bn were filled, however, only slightly above the €3.23bn average. Regardless, the cover has still come in as a weak 1.12, compared to an average of 1.34.
As mentioned, the bonds were sold at an average yield of 0.01%, coming just behind the 0.008% mid-market at the 09:30 GMT bidding deadline on Tradeweb. The auction did, however, tail a typical 1 cent.
The Bundesbank took €741.5m, or 18.5%. This last provides some measure of comfort as it compares a little favorably to an average take of 19.2%, and represents the slimmest such showing (in tandem with the 18.5% taken at the March 10-year tap) going back to last October.
London AzaForex 09:50 GMT June 15, 2016
Trading recommendations by AzaForex
Reply
Sell EURAUD
Entry: 1.5170 Target: 1.5000 Stop:
Trading recommendations on the currency pair EURAUD 15-06-2016 by AzaForex forex broker
Successful forex trading secrets for better trades.
A few days the course of the currency pair is in a narrow range. The Euro could not oppose to the increase in the price of any weighty arguments against the Australian dollar and the bears begin to take the initiative in their own hands. On the currency chart shows that the trend is downward direction. These narrow ranges typically ends abruptly breakthrough levels of support and resistance and a further rapid price movement. In Forex market there is nothing accidental, such figures have already shown their potential for earning money. Only attentive traders even before the start of the movement can advance, while the whole crowd was not acted upon, properly invest in your trading in the foreign exchange market. Price has the potential of movement to a strong support level at 1.5000 where to take profit.
The price is below a simple moving average 200 MA and 20 MA indicating bearish trend.
The MACD trend indicator is below zero level now, indicating bearish movement.
If the support level is broken you can use the following recommendation:
• Chart timeframe: H4
• The trade recommendation: Sell
• The level of entry into short position 1.5180
• The level of profit and close the position: 1.5000 (180 pips)
GVI Trading Room john 08:51 GMT June 15, 2016
Wednesday Trading
WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:
15-Jun WEDNESDAY
13:15 US- Industrial Production
14:30 US- Crude
18:00 US- Fed Decision
16-Jun THURSDAY
00:30 AU- Employment
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
07:30 CH- SNB Decision
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
11:00 GB- BOE Decision
12:30 US- CPI
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
17-Jun FRIDAY
12:30 CA- CPI
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
Trading Themes --
- The latest U.S. Federal Reserve policy decision. Fed Funds fuitures odds on a rate hike are now zero. I expect the FOMC to take a hawkish posture again. There has been no major news since Yellen last spoke. One problem the Fed faces is a complete lack of credibility following years of over-optimistic economic forecasts. Odds on a July rate hike are a scant 16%.
- Yesterday the German 10-yr dipped below zero for the first time ever as investors within the Eurozone bought German paper and sold lower quality EZ debt. It is now about one basis point above zero. This flight to safety demand is due to worry on how a U.K. exit vote could undermine the EU experiment. The Japanese yield curve is now negative out to 15-yrs. On this score, increased demand for gold makes sense.
- This a big week for other central bank decisions with the BOJ, BOE and SNB meeting on Thursday. We don't see any of them changing rates.
- The major rmaim focus is been the U.K. Brexit Referendum vote on next Thursday (June 23). Against conventional wisdom, recent polls have been showing the "Leave" vote continuing to gather momentum. The GBP is now pricing in a close Brexit victory.
John M. Bland, MBA
co-founder Global-View.com
LONDON SFH 08:37 GMT June 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS
Seems odd to rally on that-think it will be short lived...
GVI Trading Room john 08:33 GMT June 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS
Mixed to better UK. Jobs data. GBP higher
GVI Trading Room john 08:32 GMT June 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS
U.K. Employment April/May 2016
-- NEWS ALERT --
Claimant Count: -0.400 vs. +0 exp. vs. -2.4 (r +6.40)prev.
ILO Rate: 5.00% vs. 5.10% exp. vs. 5.10% prev.
earnings x-bonus: 2.30% vs. 2.00% exp. vs. 2.10% (+2.20%) prev.
earnings:2.00% vs. 1.70% exp. vs. 2.00% (r) prev.
TTN: Live News Special Offer
LONDON SFH 08:32 GMT June 15, 2016
UK unemployment falls lowest level in 11 years...
Reply
(Bloomberg) -- The U.K. labor market showed signs of resilience in the face of the referendum on European Union membership as unemployment unexpectedly fell and wage growth accelerated.
The jobless rate declined to 5 percent in the three months through April, the lowest since 2005, the Office for National Statistics in London said on Wednesday. That’s less than the 5.1 percent predicted in a Bloomberg survey. The number of people in work rose by 55,000 to a record 31.6 million.
Pay pressures also ticked higher. Basic wage growth accelerated to 2.3 percent from 2.2 percent in the first quarter, instead of easing as economists forecast. The rate including bonuses was unchanged at 2 percent, also higher than forecast.
Unemployment fell by 20,000 to 1.67 million. In April alone, the jobless declined to 4.8 percent, the lowest since September 2005. Jobless benefits, a narrower measure of unemployment, fell 400 in May and the rate was unchanged at 2.2 percent. In April, claims rose 6,400 instead of the 2,400 fall previously estimated.
Amman wfakhoury 08:08 GMT June 15, 2016
GOLD 1285.50
Reply
Gold will be back to 1285.50
The only one in the world who confirms the next level
Mtl JP 08:00 GMT June 15, 2016
Fed faces battle to escape world's low interest rate grip
Is Howard Schneider the new Fed whisperer - where is Hilsenrath?
Howard appears to apologize for the fed that "Evidence that the U.S. neutral rate of interest remains stalled near zero may slow Federal Reserve rate hikes even more than expected"
some other headlines preparing players for cold/hot "chicken" from Janet:
- Helicopter money champion says Fed will struggle to lift interest rates
- Yellen may try to sound like a hawk in her press conference
- From Europe, fears the Fed is causing ‘monstrous’ stress
- Jobs report tells Fed: Stop forcing rate hikes
LONDON SFH 07:10 GMT June 15, 2016
eurusd
Tallinn viies 20:45 GMT 06/14/2016
API builds all over the places
I am with you -short and will sell on further weakness...
nw kw 03:05 GMT June 15, 2016
Gold; Try to sell at 1292.5 for few dollars Ret.
aw if you look at xaugbp up past last resistance but strange thing is gbpusa shod be way under 1.400, so gold pre priced in bad gbp, aw 2 xauaud at last top resistance so looke for aud to get hit with gbp. gl and get nascar 4point harness welded in.
Hong Kong 01:48 GMT June 15, 2016
AceTrader Jun 15: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views- USD/JPY
Reply
15 Jun 2016 01:15GMT
USD/JPY - ....... Despite dlr's fall below Monday's low at 105.74 to 105.63 in Europe yesterday, buying interest above May's 18-month trough at 105.55 lifted price and price later recovered to 106.18 in New York afternoon, then 106.21 at Asian open on Wednesday.
Today's market focus will be on the FOMC rate decision and FOMC economic projections at 18:00GMT, then the monetary policy statement and speech from Fed's chair Yellen at 18:30GMT.
Having said that, investors should also pay attention to the release of U.S. eco. data in New York morning, these include New York Fed Manufacturing, PPI, and Industrial Output M/M May.
The 'wait and see' mode ahead of the FOMC monetary policy decision suggests choppy sideways trading would be seen in Asian and European sessions, therefore, as long as above mentioned 105.55 low holds, buying dlr on dips is recommended.
At present, bids are reported at 105.90-80 and then 105.70-60 with stops below 105.50, whilst on the upside, offers are noted at 106.20-30 and more at 106.40-50 with stops above there.
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