GVI Trading Room john 21:43 GMT June 20, 2016
BREAKING NEWS
It seems to me that the Brexit vote is now running at about a dead heat. Any momentum the leave side was building has dissipated with two days to go..
Sydney ACC 21:38 GMT June 20, 2016
BREAKING NEWS
The opinion polls got it wrong on the last three elections:
Alternative voting
Scottish referendum
General election
Livingston nh 21:15 GMT June 20, 2016
BREAKING NEWS
An ALGO always trusts -- it's the beauty of the beast
UK LV 21:12 GMT June 20, 2016
BREAKING NEWS
Orb poll is all over the place - hard to trust
FT - biased is my guess
Yougov - Maybe it is more accurate
.......... but who can trust the polls
dc CB 21:10 GMT June 20, 2016
YELLEN - BREXIT
Getting dicey: more that Brexit at stake. more like the EU itself.
Italy elections: Big wins for Five Star protest party.
The anti-establishment Five Star Movement has won key mayoral races in Italy's capital Rome and Turin, cementing its role in Italian politics.
Virginia Raggi won 67% of the Rome vote and becomes its first female mayor.
Her victory is a blow to Prime Minister Matteo Renzi's centre-left Democratic Party (PD), which won in Milan and Bologna.
The results could give anti-globalisation Five Star a platform for parliamentary elections due in 2018.
Italy
GVI Trading Room john 21:09 GMT June 20, 2016
BREAKING NEWS
FT Poll
53% remain
47% leave
--TTN
Livingston nh 21:08 GMT June 20, 2016
YELLEN - BREXIT
CB - ya think the algos are trading the polls on Brexit ?? -- I can put together a very "official" poll showing whatever outcome we need?
and THEN we can push out another showing the opposite?
OK??
GVI Trading Room john 21:06 GMT June 20, 2016
BREAKING NEWS
YouGov poll
42% remain
44% leave
--TTN
dc CB 20:57 GMT June 20, 2016
YELLEN - BREXIT
Ben Hunt
@EpsilonTheory
Market swings on UK betting lines = high risk of mkt manipulation. Could move $10 trillion in global risk assets with �1 million bet
===========================================
To this we have just one comment: not �1 million - far, far less.
As Matthew Shaddick, head of politics at Ladbrokes explains in the following BBG TV interview, the biggest bet today moving the odds was a meager �25,000!
"We took a �25,000 bet on Remain this morning which helped move the odds in their direction."
Which direction? The one which sent stocks soaring, of course.
The trade here is simple: buy millions worth of ES calls while go long the GBPUSD, then buy a few thousand worth of "Remain" bets, move the betting market, and send both the transfied S&P500 and cable sky high.
Outcome: small bet, huge profits. ZH
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Great Minds think alike
yrs,
Manny I Pulation
GVI Trading Room john 20:48 GMT June 20, 2016
BREAKING NEWS
Brexit (Telegraph Poll)
53% remain
46% Leave
Source: TTN
GVI Trading Room 20:45 GMT June 20, 2016
Tuesday Trading
June 21 Testimony - Chair Janet L. Yellen
Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress
Before the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, U.S. Senate, Washington, D.C.
15::00 GMT or 10:00 a.m. ET
GVI Trading Room john 20:08 GMT June 20, 2016
Tuesday Trading
WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:
21-Jun TUESDAY
09:00 DE- ZEW Survey
14:00 US- Yellen Testimony
22-Jun WEDNESDAY
12:30 CA- Retail Sales
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
14:00 US- Yellen Testimony
14:30 US- Crude Oil
23-Jun THURSDAY
All Day flash PMIs
24-Jun FRIDAY
08:00 DE- IFO Survey
14:00 US- prelim Univ of Mich
Trading Themes --
- In addition to the upcoming Brexit vote Thurday, this week ahead will see key German ZEW (Tuesday) and IFo Surveys (Friday). Global Flash PMI data (Friday) for June are slated as well. Fed Chair Yellen testifies to Congress Tuesaday and Wednesday.
- Markets took their lead from rising betting odds over the weekend that the Brexit vote to "leave" the EU will fail. Latest opinion polls have been showing the "Stay" vote closing in on "Leave". Many political experts have been expecting last minute deciders to favor "Stay". Keep in mind that betting odds have not always been reliable predictors of U.K. election outcomes.
- The reversal of market sentiment over the weekend has probably been constructive as it can be helpful at times to let some little air out of a speculative bubble. The GDP traded stronger and USD has eased. Equity prices have gained as flight to safety demand for sovereign debt has abated. The "Brexit" referendum vote is on Thursday.
John M. Bland, MBA
co-founder Global-View.com
GVI Trading Room john 20:07 GMT June 20, 2016
Tuesday Trading
Reply
Market Sentiment Indicators
Brexit fading as an issue? Mixed bias...
20-day avg 1.1253
Pivot Point 1.1325
The Fed Funds Market Sentiment Indicator reflects current sentiment about a future change in Fed policy. Odds for one rate hike by yearend are 61% from 56% late Friday. It is surprising how the Brexit impacts the outlook for Fed policy for the end of the year.
Livingston nh 19:57 GMT June 20, 2016
YELLEN - BREXIT
If on Friday Cameron is looking for someone to pitch over the side Osborne should be the first to go - LINK --- anybody recognize the chap in the background
PAR 19:51 GMT June 20, 2016
YELLEN - BREXIT
Brexit can no longer be used as an excuse for the weakness of the US economy . She has to find a new excuse for not to raise rates. Maybe the heat on the east coast ?
Livingston nh 19:40 GMT June 20, 2016
YELLEN - BREXIT
We see tomorrow if Yellen tries to get the markets back onside for July LIVE -- she may need an appearance on SNL to put July hike back on the Radar
I Hope Brexit is the EVENT - trading on personality and dubious economic theories is crazy
JEddah Abb 18:51 GMT June 20, 2016
Sell
Reply
Sell EURGBP
Entry: Target: Stop:
Eurgbp now 0.77 an other 50 down to 0.765..
SaaR KaL 18:26 GMT June 20, 2016
Equity
Long Googl for 755
SaaR KaL 18:05 GMT June 20, 2016
Equity
GBPCAD shorts
1.9047 1.7932
EURCAD Shorts
1.4600 1.4305
1.4636 1.4268
LONDON SFH 17:57 GMT June 20, 2016
gbp
Jay - going ot for dinner-lets talk tomorrow-mail me a number
LONDON SFH 17:52 GMT June 20, 2016
gbp
you got mail-going out for dinner now Jay
NY JM 17:43 GMT June 20, 2016
gbp
Nice 100 pip flash crash in GBPUSD. Expect more price action like this on both sides over the next few days.
SaaR KaL 17:42 GMT June 20, 2016
Equity
Reply
Longed aapl
tgt 104
LONDON SFH 17:24 GMT June 20, 2016
gbp
Well short term-really short this maybe a good buying opp....perhaps turaround at 1.4700
LONDON SFH 17:20 GMT June 20, 2016
gbp
not hearing about polls? Anyone-that 80 pip dip helped me...but I wasnt count on that!
Livingston nh 17:18 GMT June 20, 2016
gbp
SFH - Exactly - politicians need to understand the mood -- doing the RIGHT thing is rarely compatible with doing the SMART thing
And for the Gamblers from BBH this note:
"Two days before the UK referendum, on June 21 the German Constitutional Court will hand down its decision on whether the Bundesbank�s participation in the ECB�s Outright Market Transactions would violate the German constitution. The European Court of Justice, who the German court initially deferred issues of whether OMT violates EU law or the ECB�s mandate, ruled in the central bank�s favor."
hk ab 17:17 GMT June 20, 2016
e/j
Reply
first limit filled 117.70
LONDON SFH 17:13 GMT June 20, 2016
gbp
nh-not sure I know what you mean-but it looks like political suicide to me...
GVI Trading Room john 17:10 GMT June 20, 2016
Monday Trading
2-yr 0.745%
bid to cover 2.72 vs 3.00 pev.
Livingston nh 17:05 GMT June 20, 2016
gbp
SFH - IMO Cameron did a Gordon Brown
LONDON SFH 16:56 GMT June 20, 2016
gbp
Good point nh livingstone
I tend to think that the predicable direction of stg will happen dependent on the result-either way there will be problems for the UK...
Livingston nh 16:52 GMT June 20, 2016
gbp
If you are playing the polls for Cable or EUR/GBP then it's a Mug's Game - Thursday and Friday may be multiple Whipsaws -- REMAIN is as big a risk to the POUND as Brexit -- the initial response will be mere positioning correction but the longer term consequences will be based on the domestic political reactions (all fiat currencies are political) in the EU and UK -- that is the GREAT UNKNOWN
LONDON SFH 16:48 GMT June 20, 2016
gbp
It would be fun to see a swing back in favour of Brexit-thisd helium balloon will sink!
GVI Trading Room Jay Meisler 16:42 GMT June 20, 2016
gbp
Beware, several polls expected to come out later today.
SaaR KaL 15:41 GMT June 20, 2016
EURUSD
EURCAD Short recommended
for 1.41 area
Miami JN 15:26 GMT June 20, 2016
gbp
red, have you changed your mind on the Brexit vote outcome? Are we to believe the polls?
SaaR KaL 15:24 GMT June 20, 2016
EURUSD
Reply
EURUSD shorts for 1.11
hk ab 15:20 GMT June 20, 2016
e/j
Reply
e/j heaven gifts are coming again....watch for the volatility.
Geez, where's MASTER Wfakhoury?
SaaR KaL 15:17 GMT June 20, 2016
gbp
I just shorted it...TGT < 1.44
LONDON SFH 15:13 GMT June 20, 2016
gbp
Maybe-but unlikely before referendum imo
london red 15:10 GMT June 20, 2016
gbp
cable. maybe 14760 and 148 monthly channels provide some respite. big stops abv there tho.
GVI Forex Blog 15:08 GMT June 20, 2016
GVI Data Calendar for 20 June 2016
Reply
June 20, 2016 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Tuesday, June 21, 2016. Trading News Calendar
- Far East: No Major Data
- Europe: DE- ZEW Survey
- North America: US- Yellen Testimony, 5-yr Auction, API Crude
WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:
21-Jun TUESDAY
09:00 DE- ZEW Survey
14:00 US- Yellen Testimony
22-Jun WEDNESDAY
12:30 CA- Retail Sales
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
14:00 US- Yellen Testimony
14:30 US- Crude Oil
23-Jun THURSDAY
All Day flash PMIs
24-Jun FRIDAY
08:00 DE- IFO Survey
14:00 US- prelim Univ of Mich
GVI Data Calendar for 20 June 2016
LONDON SFH 15:07 GMT June 20, 2016
gbp
Feels like a short squeeze rather than a real chg-doubt poll leak theory..
UK PO 15:06 GMT June 20, 2016
gbp
Can we assume that the price action suggests someone has inside information on the next polls to come out?
PAR 15:03 GMT June 20, 2016
EUROPE RUSSIA
Reply
Time to send �strong signal� to Russia and gradually lift sanctions � Austrian FM
NY JM 15:02 GMT June 20, 2016
gbp
EURGBP selling is behind the GBPUSD pop and EURUSD not following.
hk ab 14:59 GMT June 20, 2016
gbp
Reply
Oh no..... Wfakhoury's 1.4235 magnet........ malfunction?
Lucky that I started selling above 1.4650...........NOT 1.43........
HK Kevin 14:51 GMT June 20, 2016
gbpusd
No news, just clear stops above previous daily high 1.4672
hk ab 14:51 GMT June 20, 2016
gold
Reply
Some early birds enter the mkt?
or Bangsters work on the fishes' stops?
Dubai FAD 14:46 GMT June 20, 2016
gbpusd
Any poll rumors, gbp up??
hk ooozmeeh 14:30 GMT June 20, 2016
gbpusd
Reply
gbpusd on brexit
Livingston nh 14:29 GMT June 20, 2016
Monday Trading
Silly spikes worth a small FADE -- SPX, VIX, and Cable (1.4710 stop)
HK RF@ 12:50 GMT June 20, 2016
6/23/ A huge Brexit bombshell; USE Murphy's Law
Reply
MURPHY'S LAW
If anything can go wrong, it will.
MURPHY'S THIRD COROLLARY
If there is a possibility of several things
going wrong, the one that will cause the most
damage will be the one to go wrong.
PAR 12:41 GMT June 20, 2016
ECB
Reply
Is the ECB buying European stock index futures ahead of the Brexit vote ?
Livingston nh 12:36 GMT June 20, 2016
Monday Trading
Today seems just a reaction from too many folks on one side of the boat (aka squeeze) - relying on Brexit betting odds where money is dominant force (still more "small" bets than large) vs elections where everyone gets a vote is a bit of a stretch
This starts to smell a bit like the "turnout suppression" strategy - vested interests release poll results or "news" articles showing one side favored by a large majority - this raises the "my vote doesn't matter" discouragement in the "losing" side thus reducing turnout
(caution: it can backfire if "winning" voters figure their vote is not needed)
Every election is won by one vote but you don't know that one voter so whips are told to kick the doors down to get your people to the polls
And no matter which side wins the reactions in the POUND and in UK or EU will surprise
nw kw 12:09 GMT June 20, 2016
Refugees
refugee problem in xauusa monthly must bust range? get u/j moving to 101 or 108.
Singapore SC 12:09 GMT June 20, 2016
YELLEN - BREXIT
When is next Brexit poll due?
PAR 11:46 GMT June 20, 2016
Refugees
Reply
Only way to stop refugee problem is to stop the WARS .
And stop pushing everywhere for regime change .
The origin of the refugee crisis was the silly invasion of IRAQ .
hk ab 11:28 GMT June 20, 2016
e/j
Reply
may need to reload here at 118.50.... seems mkt can't move down much.....
buy first entry with more around 118.
London AzaForex 11:25 GMT June 20, 2016
Day trading strategies on GBPUSD by AzaForex
Reply
Buy GBPUSD
Entry: 1.4770 Target: 1.5000 Stop:
Forex trading techniques can be quite helpful.
The British Pound ahead of the Brexit referendum on British exit from the European Union only became more expensive. For all currency pairs on the Forex market, which are crosses with the Pound, the rise of the British currency. . The attention of all traders and investors are now focused to the future results of the referendum. On exchange rates can seriously affect the result of the referendum, will be increased volatility and increased margin requirements for all Forex brokers. How will the British currency is not known to anyone, but judging by the growth on the charts, we can assume that traders are quite optimistic. Therefore, if the pair get out of range and will be able to overcome the resistance level 1.4770, we open a long position and will remain there until a strong resistance level 1.5000
The price is above a simple moving average 200 MA and 20 MA indicating bullish trend.
The MACD trend indicator is above zero level now, indicating bullish movement.
If the resistance level is broken you can use the following recommendation:
� Chart timeframe: H4
� The trade recommendation: Buy
� The level of entry into long position: 1.4770
� The level of profit and close the position: 1.5000 (130 pips)
GVI Trading Room john 11:24 GMT June 20, 2016
Monday Trading
Equites Risk-on
DAX +340
DJ +214
SP +27
10-yr
US 1.672% +5.8bp
DE 0.049% +3.0
GB 1.200% +7.8
JP -0.144% +0.5
nw kw 10:26 GMT June 20, 2016
YELLEN - BREXIT
sdgjpy 4h // xagjpy dally mid range good driver still this year. trapped to move. gl.
PAR 09:24 GMT June 20, 2016
YELLEN - BREXIT
Reply
Yellen may have to raise US rates rather sooner than later in case of a REMAIN . She was so worried about a Brexit and has been proven WRONG AGAIN.
Another excuse not to raise rates GONE .
LONDON SFH 09:15 GMT June 20, 2016
Cable
Kaunas DP 08:30 GMT 06/20/2016
Yes I remember those days are bigger daily moves in the early '80s-they were very different markets....overt bought and oversold conditions exist all the time-thats not so say that those levels cannoit be broken...
gl gt
GVI Trading Room john 09:01 GMT June 20, 2016
Monday Trading
WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:
20-Jun MONDAY
No Major Data
21-Jun TUESDAY
09:00 DE- ZEW Survey
14:00 US- Yellen Testimony
22-Jun WEDNESDAY
12:30 CA- Retail Sales
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
14:00 US- Yellen Testimony
14:30 US- Crude Oil
23-Jun THURSDAY
All Day flash PMIs
24-Jun FRIDAY
08:00 DE- IFO Survey
14:00 US- prelim Univ of Mich
Trading Themes --
- Markets have decided to take their lead from rising betting odds that the Brexit vote to "leave" the EU will fail to start the new week. Opinion polls have been showing the "Stay" vote closing in on "Leave". Many political experts had been expecting the last minute deciders to favor "Stay".
- Today, the GDP is stronger and USD has eased. Equity prices have gained as flight to safety demand for sovereign debt has abated. The "Brexit" referendum vote is on Thursday.
- In addition to the upcoming Brexit vote the week ahead will see the key German ZEW and IFo Surveys. Global Flash PMI data for June are slated as well.
John M. Bland, MBA
co-founder Global-View.com
Kaunas DP 08:30 GMT June 20, 2016
Cable
London,
do u remember days when cable moves 6 figures per day? in such market there is no oversold/overbougt
LONDON SFH 08:28 GMT June 20, 2016
Cable
cable ...ovedone hw=ere at 1,4660-sold for a return to 1'4500 It seems to be building no brexit risk now
LONDON SFH 08:21 GMT June 20, 2016
below MA 5
JH-Does it? Looks like 1300 will be tested soon to me..
Beirut JH 08:18 GMT June 20, 2016
below MA 5
Sell Gold
Entry: 1285 Target: 1264 Stop: 1298
Looks like it is going to test 1264 once again.
PAR 07:58 GMT June 20, 2016
EUROPE RUSSIA
Reply
Lifting of sanctions will turbo boost European economy.
Germany�s foreign minister warned the country�s allies against �saber-rattling and war cries� directed toward Russia, hinting at a widening split in Europe over dealing with Moscow.
HK Kwun 06:05 GMT June 20, 2016
below MA 5
Reply
Sell Gold
Entry: 1284 Target: Stop: 1294
sell now
hk ab 05:58 GMT June 20, 2016
eur/jpy
Reply
mkt is kind to send heaven gifts.... the residual limbo long of e/j exited 119......
hk ab 05:57 GMT June 20, 2016
Wfakhoury
Reply
To show my "FULL SUPPORT" to him, I will start shorting cable from here now till 1.4235....... Hope that the Brits will not send the sterling to the moon......
You know, "magnetic levels", "100% confirmation", "The one and ONLY one" are often signs for reversal and slogans of bucket shops only....
RF, maybe you should re-examine the gold bullish tone before too late for your forgotten target under 1000.........
Hong Kong 02:18 GMT June 20, 2016
AceTrader Jun 20: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views USD/JPY
Reply
20 Jun 2016 01:39GMT
USD/JPY - ...... Dlr rebounded from 104.30 (Reuters) at New Zealand open and then climbed above Friday's high of 108.83 to 108.85 in Tokyo morning due to broad-based weakness in yen on reduced safe-haven demand as investors squarely focused on this week's Brexit vote n upbeat poll data for the "Remain" campaign.
Earlier, official data from Japan showed the country's trade balance fell to a seasonally adjusted 0.27 trillion yen in May, from 0.43 trillion yen in the preceding month. Separately, data showed that Japan's exports fell at the fastest pace in 4 months in May on supply chain disruptions from the ***amoto earthquake and slow growth in emerging markets.
At the moment, offers are noted at 104.90-00 n more at 105.10-20 with stops above there, whilst bids are reported at 104.60-50 and then 104.40-30 with stops below 104.20.
nw kw 01:26 GMT June 20, 2016
Cable
USD/SGD Dives to 6-Week Low on Lower Brexit Odds -- Market Talk
20 June 2016, 01:02
0102 GMT [Dow Jones] USD/SGD has slid deeper into the Bollinger downtrend channel on the daily chart, touching a six-week low of 1.3436 early Monday, as the haven greenback retreats across the board. The bearish technical signal may encourage punters to sell USD/SGD, targeting the 1.3360 base of the downtrend channel. Bets on Britain leaving the European Union have abated with a change in market sentiment following the alleged murder of a U.K. lawmaker, who was campaigning for a vote to remain in the EU. USD/SGD took a dive Monday in reaction to the sharp rallies of the pound and the euro, which have deflated the benchmark ICE dollar index. The ICE dollar index, which acts as a beacon for most USD/Asia currency pairs, has collapsed to 93.633 from its Friday closing level of 94.143, representing a 0.5% weakening of the greenback against the six other major currencies in the index. USD/SGD is now 1.3442 from its Friday closing of 1.3487. ([email protected])
Editor: MNG
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
June 19, 2016 21:02 ET (01:02 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2016 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
HK RF@ 00:15 GMT June 20, 2016
The only one in the world
Amman wfakhoury, is always right, but the condition of success for the trade is: The patient will successfully arrive to the hospital, but declared dead upon arrival:(
So anyone who criticize him is a rubbish trader.
tokyo joyya 00:13 GMT June 20, 2016
The only one in the world
Buy GBPUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:
Hk Ab 00:09 GMT 06/20/2016
hahaha....thanx God i bought gbpjpy 146 and gbpusd 1.4
Hk Ab 00:09 GMT June 20, 2016
The only one in the world
Reply
Where's the only ONE in the world? Lol, maybe he is too busy to entertain the margin calls
-------------------------------------------------------
Amman wfakhoury 11:38 GMT June 17, 2016
GBPUSD 14243: Reply
14300 is a good level to sell add sell if rise tp 14245.
Amman wfakhoury 10:02 GMT June 17, 2016
GBPUSD 14243: Reply
Amman wfakhoury 09:43 GMT 06/17/2016
14243 is strong mag level price up or down will return to it.
Trade accordingly
-----------------------------
First touch 14243
Amman wfakhoury 09:54 GMT June 17, 2016
GBPUSD 14243: Reply
Market doing well with my mag levels during this time of BRexit
Amman wfakhoury 09:43 GMT June 17, 2016
GBPUSD 14243: Reply
14243 is strong mag level price up or down will return to it.
Trade accordingly
The only one in the world who confirms the next level
Sydney FX 00:00 GMT June 20, 2016
Cable
Is there any other news on cable? It is flying higher.
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