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Forex Forum Archive for 06/26/2016
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HK RF@ 23:24 GMT June 26, 2016
GBP/USD a bag full with cockroaches. Keep away!!!
The pound has fallen in early trading in Asia on Monday, adding to Friday's record one-day decline.
Sterling was trading at $1.3440, down more than 2% from Friday's close. Against the euro it was trading at �1.2165, down 1.3%.
On Friday the pound had its biggest one-day fall against the dollar, at one stage sinking as low as $1.3236.
Some traders are betting that the pound still has further to slide.
Jeremy Cook, chief economist at World First, said: "We are still looking for another 10% fall for the pound against the dollar in the coming months as data confirms the economic slowdown and monetary policy expectations increase."
The pound also fell further against the yen on Monday, a currency considered to be a safe haven, to 137.16 yen - down from about 139.64.
Stock markets also plunged on Friday, with more than $2tn (�1.5tn) wiped off the value of global stock markets, according to Standard and Poor's Dow Jones Indices.
dc CB 21:35 GMT June 26, 2016
Second Referendum?
On Friday, when we described the assessment of UBS derivative strategist Rebecca Cheong, who anticipates as much as $150 billion in program and systematic strategy selling in the next 2-3 days, we wondered if the Friday silence from JPM's quant guru meant he was willing to hand over the baton of the market's most prominent prognosticator of quant moves to others. The answer was no, because shortly thereafter Kolanovic chimed in with a note just after the US close, in which he agreed with Cheong and said that the program selling was about to begin, to wit:
As we noted earlier this week, we expected a Brexit outcome to have an asymmetric impact for equities, with downside exacerbated by unwind of long equity investor positioning. In particular, increasing equity volatility would induce systematic strategies (Volatility Targeting, Risk Parity, CTAs) to start deleveraging their high equity exposure, resulting in $100-300 billion of selling.
JPM Head Quant
SaaR KaL 21:32 GMT June 26, 2016
EURUSD Long
Expect EURGBP around 0.76 area
2-3 weeks max
dc CB 21:30 GMT June 26, 2016
Second Referendum?
Rudolf E. Havenstein @RudyHavenstein 2h2 hours ago
BREAKING: John Hancock says he regrets signing Declaration of Independence; fears it could lead to uncertainty
-------------------------------------------------------------
NassimNicholasTaleb Verified account
@nntaleb
When people vote the way of the IYI elite, it is "democracy". Otherwise it is misguided, irrational, swayed by populism & lack of education.
SaaR KaL 21:10 GMT June 26, 2016
JPY pairs
Reply
GBPJPY to 148 +
EURJPY to 119 +
You will see
GVI Trading Room john 19:27 GMT June 26, 2016
BREAKING NEWS
Reply
Japan considering unilateral JPY intervention after Brexit-- NIkkei
Source: TTN
GVI Trading Room john 19:13 GMT June 26, 2016
Monday Trading
USDJPY 101.74 -47
GBPUSD 1.3510 -169
EURUSD 1.1034 -73
Haifa ac 16:10 GMT June 26, 2016
Second Referendum?
LOL
Turns out that lovely liberal left can be rather violent when they lose. Corbyn just fired 8 ministers! At least 77000 signatures forged (from the vatican to North Korea).
Nice people.
Sydney ACC 15:38 GMT June 26, 2016
Second Referendum?
Reply
Some 39,411 residents of Vatican City, home to Pope Francis, appeared to have signed the petition by Sunday morning, despite the tiny city state having a total population of just 800.
In isolationist North Korea, one of the least internet-connected countries in the world, 23,778 people had apparently gone online to express their frustration at the UK�s decision to quit the EU.
Located 800 miles south east of the Falklands, and with a permanent population of zero, the South Atlantic British Overseas Territory of South Georgia and the Sandwich Islands was responsible for more than 3,000 signatures
That was some 300 more than those coming from the British Antarctic Territory, which though home to some 400 researchers also has no settled population of its own.
Signatories are also recorded in places as far flung as the Caribbean island of Aruba (101), Bermuda (564), China (432), Hong Kong (2,089), Japan (742) Venezuela (24) and the South Pacific Islands of Tuvalu (18), Wallis and Fortuna (8) and Vanuatu (31).
Overall, close to 2.5 million signatures had been added from within the UK by midday on Sunday, making up an overwhelming proportion of the whole.
What is not clear is whether the results recorded are an accurate reflection of the places from which signatures were added.
Savvy internet users could simply have disguised their true locations by using proxy servers to hide their IP addresses.
There have also been suggestions computer coders may have used special script or a 'bot' to generate fake signatures automatically.
Either way, people purportedly living in countries left behind by the vote also appear to have added their name to the petition in significant numbers.
They included 18,734 signatures from France, 11,816 from Spain, 7,031 from Germany, 3,139 from the Netherlands and 2,492 Italians and 4,122 residents of Gibraltar � which came out strongly in favour of Remain in Wednesday's momentous poll.
Some 2,326 Swiss-based supporters backed a second referendum on EU membership, as did 279 residents of Turkey, 3,746 in New Zealand and 11,971 in Australia.
Livingston nh 15:08 GMT June 26, 2016
Escalating mess.
fwiw -
USD/JPY, USD/CAD buy --- short term sell EUR/USD
Cable a sell after dead cat bounce as secondary after shocks set in // still think the CNY is the one to watch for some turmoil
Livingston nh 14:57 GMT June 26, 2016
Escalating mess.
The Mess will arise from foreign policy chaos - both the US and UK have lame duck leaders - the EU is split between those calling for the UK out now and those "hoping" that delay is the better tactic // during the Cold War (e.g., 1956 , 1968) and more recently, divisions between the western allies invited mischief
The economic/financial consequences will be resolved much sooner than the political turmoil
SaaR KaL 14:05 GMT June 26, 2016
Escalating mess.
Northern Ireland and Texas as well..
The enlightenment period started .. :)
HK RF@ 13:14 GMT June 26, 2016
Escalating mess.
Reply
Nicola Sturgeon says MSPs at Holyrood could veto Brexit
Brexit live: Nicola Sturgeon says Scotland could veto Brexit as Labour revolt gathers momentum.
Others say not that serious.
LINK
Cape May jb 11:52 GMT June 26, 2016
So why did BREXIT happen?!
To me the "obvious" reason why Brexit won is evident. Its all economics, the same as in the States and elsewhere. Years of slow growth have voters saying they have had enough of entrenched and bloated governmental bureaucracies looking out only for themselves. Its a generational time to throw out the bums in Brussels, Washington and all the rest.
"The times they area a changing"
Haifa ac 11:24 GMT June 26, 2016
So why did BREXIT happen?!
Reply
Some of the pundits who explain the "obvious" reasons why the unexpected happend:
1. It was the rebellion of the Coal miners and steel workers who were mad about natural gas.
2.Uri Geller lost his power (true interview)
3. Obama and Merkel poisoned the water.
4. FOREIGN IMMIGRATION--330,000 in 2015 alone who took many jobs from brits. Polling company Ipso Mori found that immigration issues replaced the economic issue as 6/23/16 got closer.
5.Older catholics from the periphery won against younger portestants from the cities.
6. The Germans are worried and blame Merkel
7. Jermy Corbyn.
8. Soros Curse.
You pick your favorite scape goat.
Mtl JP 10:33 GMT June 26, 2016
Trump
Chip 10:01 / so what is the next positional trade ?
tks
London Chip 10:01 GMT June 26, 2016
Trump
Reply
.......
SaaR KaL 08:54 GMT June 26, 2016
What I am Doing
Reply
Sometimes volatility goes wild
stick to the plan
Pair------ Rec'd---- High---- Low
USD/CAD Stay Sell 1.3076 1.2559
AUD/USD Stay Buy 0.7711 0.7252
EUR/AUD Stay Buy 1.5427 1.4687
EUR/JPY Stay Buy 122.5479 112.8696
EUR/USD Stay Buy 1.1439 1.1101
GBP/CHF Stay Buy 1.4416 1.3165
GBP/JPY Stay Buy 159.6471 140.9136
GBP/NZD Stay Buy 2.1326 1.8849
NAS100( Stay Buy 4,605.64 4,304.00
SPX500( Stay Buy 2,146.33 2,046.65
USD/CAD Stay Sell 1.3076 1.2559
USD/JPY Stay Buy 109.0094 99.8904
USOil(C Stay Buy 51.4857 46.8737
HK RF@ 08:50 GMT June 26, 2016
long gbp!
Uncertainty remains around the markets.
Rather you don't jump into that pool full of rats.
Sideline: Banks are not going to bail any billionaire, but rather take care of themselves.
PAR 07:11 GMT June 26, 2016
UK = GREECE
Reply
Results of referendum will not be implemented and UK will stay in Europe.
What did you expect ?
HK RF@ 06:03 GMT June 26, 2016
Guessing Brexit to happen, was far easier than guessing it implemented or not.
Reply
Too many options, strategies, risks and possible modifications standing in front of the politician, that it may not be implemented at all, or if yes than after very long time.
Brexit decision and the following debates on the way to it's implementation, may demolish the EU before article 50 will be triggered.
Thus EU being at stake, may be higher than the UK.
There is no way the EU can push Britain to hurry up in triggering article 50.
UK has now a very strong tool to pressurize the EU to the wall.
That according to Isaac Newton findings:
Just take your time, and the apples will fall into your basket:)
tokyo joyya 04:40 GMT June 26, 2016
long gbp!
Kl Fs 04:35 GMT 06/26/2016
i think gbpjpy range 137/153 maybe 135...gbpusd 1.33/1.45 maybe 1.50.....lets see...i think 1st rise then maybe down again....
Bali Sja 04:39 GMT June 26, 2016
long gbp!
Most say we wont see 2nd one. Some say it is going to take years. But i say we will see one sooner than everyone think. When the big money and rich ones are losing money they will do whatever it takes to get it back including paying for running the second referendum. Buy gbp on dips! That is the only logical play from now on.
Kl Fs 04:35 GMT June 26, 2016
long gbp!
Joyya so next week you say we are going to see gbpusd 1.41-1.51?
tokyo joyya 02:44 GMT June 26, 2016
long gbp!
Bali Sja 16:01 GMT 06/25/2016
when is Second referendum? i think long gbp till second referendum then again short....
tokyo joyya 02:34 GMT June 26, 2016
long gbp!
Reply
Buy GBPUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:
next week gbp rally 500/1500pips?gbpjpy maybe heading to 147/153 right?i will short around 153 if seen target 138.....now long gbpjpy around 140 and small long gbp crosses....
HK RF@ 02:31 GMT June 26, 2016
IT IS MORE FUN IN THE PHILIPPINES!!!
Reply
ISIS to followers in SE Asia: 'Go to the Philippines'
'If you cannot go to [Syria], join up and go to the Philippines,' Malaysian militant Mohd Rafi Udin tells followers. Malaysia's counter-terrorism chief says they expect more attacks in the region.
MANILA, Philippines � The Islamic State (IS, formerly known as ISIS or the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq) has called on its followers in Southeast Asia to fight for the terror group either in Syria or in the Philippines, a recent video showed.
The 20-minute video showed men in military fatigues carrying weapons and holding Islamic State flags, also engaging in gun battles. The video likewise showed the beheading of 3 Caucasian males, believed to be of Iraqi or Syrian descent, according to reports. The militants claim the men were "spies of the crusader alliance."
Reuters reported that a man in the video, identified by Malaysian authorities as Mohd Rafi Udin, said in Malay: "If you cannot go to [Syria], join up and go to the Philippines".
Udin is a Malaysian militant currently in Syria, according to Reuters.
.....................................................
Propaganda?
But Philippine military officials dismissed the latest video as propaganda, Reuters reported.
"People should not be bothered by this," Reuters quoted Philippine military spokesman Restituto Padilla as saying. "Authorities are working on this. They can be identified, and they can be hunted down."
But Ayob Khan Mydin Pitchay, chief of Malaysia's police counter-terrorism unit, said the video "is not just propaganda, but is a serious threat."
"We are definitely expecting more attacks in this region," Pitchay told Reuters LINK
Livingston nh 02:07 GMT June 26, 2016
Real Issue
Reply
The EU is a trade zone and - it has run into trouble because of over reach - the English have revealed the problem of SOVEREIGNTY -- the EU can never overcome this because it would require an Empire
The issue of immigration can be resolved if the external borders are shut - this requires FORCE (violence) - the EU does not limit free travel and most nations do not benefit from open borders - the elite don't understand this
The US never had an Open Border Policy - immigrants were only permitted as needed (miners, laborers) and the US had Free Land when it needed ranchers and Farmers
Misunderstanding HISTORY in Europe is as bad as in the US
HK RF@ 01:19 GMT June 26, 2016
Referendum rerun! When? Few years from now!!!
Reply
The only way to get UK and the EU out of the mud for the time.
The referendum is not binding, so a date for a rerun, may be fixed at any time in the future!!!
Be careful with your trades.
So civil war may be averted for the time.
Does London have enough wood sticks to fight it out with the provinces(see image)
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