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Forex Forum Archive for 07/03/2016

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nw kw 22:01 GMT July 3, 2016
Fundamentals For Trading

for now aud pump gbp

nw kw 21:58 GMT July 3, 2016
Fundamentals For Trading

looks like we need yen fight for workers in the chart, chfjpy 4h trapped,gl

HK [email protected] 21:08 GMT July 3, 2016
GBPJPY Outlook for 4 July - 8 July



Singapore SGFXTrader 15:34 GMT 07/03/2016

"I think the market is shorting GBP big time."


From last cot report, it looks not too much different from previous weeks(inside the range).
So more room for more shorts.
http://www.global-view.com/gvi3/ECONDb1208b_15632_image040.gif

GVI Forex Blog 19:31 GMT July 3, 2016
GVI Data Calendar for 4 July 2016
Reply   



July 3, 2016 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Monday, July 4, 2016. Trading News Calendar

  • Far East: No Major Data
  • Europe: GB- Construction PMI
  • North America: CA- Markit PMI

WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:

4-Jul MONDAY
00:00 US- Holiday
08:28 GB- Construction PMI
13:30 CA- Markit PMI
5-Jul TUESDAY
04:30 AU- Reserve Bank of Australia
All Day Service PMIs
6-Jul WEDNESDAY
US- Service PMIs
18:00 US- Policy Minutes
7-Jul THURSDAY
12:15 US- ADP Jobs
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
15:00 US- Weekly Crude
8-Jul FRIDAY
00:30 GB- Trade
12:30 US/CA- Employment
18:00 US- Policy Minutes

GVI Data Calendar for 4 July 2016

tokyo joyya 15:43 GMT July 3, 2016
GBPJPY Outlook for 4 July - 8 July

in longer term possible 100 and 1.00 i do not think it is gona haappen soon even in few months....

tokyo joyya 15:39 GMT July 3, 2016
GBPJPY Outlook for 4 July - 8 July

rise from currect level also very possible 135/1.32....

Singapore SGFXTrader 15:34 GMT July 3, 2016
GBPJPY Outlook for 4 July - 8 July

Thanks RF and Joyya for your inputs.

I think the market is shorting GBP big time.

Let's see what the market maker want.

GVI Trading Room john 14:26 GMT July 3, 2016
Fundamentals For Trading

EXCLUSIVE CHART: Commodity currencies (plus China).

These smoothed moving averages had been turning higher, but might be running out of steam?. The recent recovery in the Australia has apruptly ended. China continues to run about flat. The bottoming of crude prices appears to be helpng the U.S. and Canadian PMIs.






GVI Trading Room john 14:22 GMT July 3, 2016
Fundamentals For Trading
Reply   
Fundamentals for Trading. EXCLUSIVE CHARTs:

Latest Manufacturing PMI. The Smoothed (3mo Averages) Manufacturing PMIs appear to be bottoming turning. The U.S. PMI has been turning consistently higher. This is not in synch with the latest Fed message. PMI readings are not "hard" economic statistics. I like the manufacturing series, even in Service economies, because it is more sensitive to changes in the business cycle.



GVI Trading Room 12:38 GMT July 3, 2016
Bond yields sink as markets eye central bank action --Reuters.com
Reply   
NEW YORK, July 1 Global stock markets climbed for a fourth day and government bond yields around the world hit their lowest levels in years on Friday, driven by the prospect of further cuts in interest rates and more central bank bond buying to support weak economies.

Signs that the world's big central banks will go even easier on monetary conditions, extending an era of ultra-low interest rates, have helped drive a recovery for stock markets after a bout of volatility following Britain's vote to leave the European Union last week...

Bond yields sink as markets eye central bank action --Reuters.com

HK [email protected] 12:04 GMT July 3, 2016
Top candidates to lead Britain differ on how quickly to start Brexit talks
Reply   

World - Sun Jul 3, 2016 7:26am EDT REUTERS

The two leading candidates to be the next British prime minister differed on Sunday on how urgent it was to trigger article 50, the formal step that will kickstart Britain's negotiations with the European Union on the terms of its exit from the bloc.

Home Secretary Theresa May, the front-runner who campaigned for a "Remain" vote in the June 23 referendum, said Britain needed to be clear about its negotiating stance and she would not be rushed into triggering the article this year.

Junior Energy Minister Andrea Leadsom, who has emerged in the early days of the contest as May's strongest rival from the "Leave" camp, struck a more urgent tone, saying Britain needed to "get a grip and make progress".

Britons voted by 52 to 48 percent to leave the bloc it had joined in 1973 and Prime Minister David Cameron said the next morning he would resign over his failure to keep the country in.

Adding to the political turbulence, the vast majority of the main opposition Labour Party's lawmakers openly denounced leader Jeremy Corbyn as unfit for the job but he has refused to resign, citing grassroots support.

Five candidates are vying to succeed Cameron as Conservative Party leader and prime minister, and the field will be whittled down to two by the party's lawmakers over the summer, before grassroots party members pick the winner by Sept. 9.

Media reports on Sunday suggested that some Conservative lawmakers who back May were trying to persuade Leadsom and other candidates to stand down so that May could be quickly installed in Downing Street to bring back stability and make quicker progress towards negotiating the terms of Brexit.

But asked about this in an interview on ITV, May said she would not favor the so-called "coronation" scenario.

tokyo joyya 11:01 GMT July 3, 2016
GBPJPY Outlook for 4 July - 8 July

Singapore SGFXTrader 06:53 GMT 07/03/2016


maybe dip to 127/133 so buy on dip target 145/155.....

HK [email protected] 10:46 GMT July 3, 2016
GBPJPY Outlook for 4 July - 8 July


It looks for the moment that GBP is the weak side of the pair, as no clear outlook for the British political leadership.
No clear communication channel between the EU and the UK regarding the Brexit procedure.
The French are sending unclear messages about what they want, the German know they too are into troubles, so any decision to have any dialogue should be watched.

Even the queen found it to intervene, calling all sides to cool down.

A move to safe haven like gold, may reflect too a possible move into the JPY, so it is hard to see from here how GBP/JPY will strengthen.



GVI Trading Room Jay Meisler 10:26 GMT July 3, 2016
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Sydney ACC 08:26 GMT July 3, 2016
Australian Election - Aftermath
Reply   
Turnbull given one in 10 chance of survival
Comment: Malcolm Turnbull is quietly confident of being able to form a majority government, but he faces the prospect of being a lame duck leader in a poisonous Parliament.
One Coalition insider rates his chances of surviving at one in 10, and says the two things in his favour are the absence of an alternative or the stomach to tear down another leader.
His agenda is in tatters, his authority diminished and his judgement is being questioned on multiple levels.

Singapore SGFXTrader 06:53 GMT July 3, 2016
GBPJPY Outlook for 4 July - 8 July
Reply   
Week of 4 July - 8 July Outlook forecast for GBP/Yen:

Scenario 1
GBP/Yen to rebound from 136/135.70 to 138

or Scenario 2
GBP/Yen to continue to re-test 133


Please cast your opinion. Scenario 1 or 2?

HK [email protected] 00:08 GMT July 3, 2016
"Get out of Europe before you wreck it,"
Reply   

French ex-PM Rocard, pro-EU but an early backer of Brexit, dies


Former French Socialist Prime Minister Michel Rocard, who two years ago urged Britons to leave the European Union before they destroyed it, died on Saturday at the age of 85, nine days after Britain voted to follow his advice.

Rocard, a Socialist who served as prime minister under President Francois Mitterrand from 1988 to 1991, became an ardent European federalist, spending 15 years in the European Parliament until he resigned in 2009.

In 2014 he wrote a bitter criticism of Britain's role in the EU bloc - an article that resonates strongly after Britons voted 52 percent to 48 percent to leave the EU in a referendum on June 23.

"Get out of Europe before you wreck it," Rocard wrote then in the headline of an opinion piece published by Britain's Guardian newspaper and France's Le Monde.

"You do not like Europe," he told Britons, blaming them for Europe's failures and accusing them of selfishness and an obsession with trade over the project for political unity.

"You never shared the true meaning of the project... always putting the national interest first - you reintroduced these ideas and made them contagious," he wrote.

"A great figure of the Republic and the Left has just disappeared," President Francois Hollande said in a statement.

Among Rocard's achievements were the creation of a minimum welfare benefit in France and reform of the financing of the welfare system.


SHADOW OF MITTERRAND

He lived a political life in the shadow of Mitterrand, the Socialist President of France from 1981 to 1995, but nevertheless helped lead France's Marxist-rooted Socialists toward market-friendly social democracy.

Admired on the Left and the Right as one of the brightest politicians of his generation, Rocard was co-founder in 1960 of the Unified Socialist Party (PSU), a leftist group that played a role in the May 1968 student-worker uprising. He ran for president in 1969 but won just 3.6 percent of the vote.

After that he gradually moved to the centre-left in the 1970s and joined the Socialist party in 1974 after Mitterrand reunited it.

But he later fell out with his mentor, and their enmity dogged his long career. Mitterrand fired the popular premier after the Gulf War and kept a lid on his career after that.

In later life, Rocard was a staunch supporter of Hollande who is struggling with record low poll ratings and a deeply divided party.

"Francois Hollande has never run away from intelligent people who could overshadow him. That's the difference. That's the way to be governed," he told Reuters in an interview in February this year.

 




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