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Forex Forum Archive for 07/21/2016

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GVI Trading Room john 20:11 GMT July 21, 2016
Friday Trading


WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:

22-Jul FRIDAY
All Day- Flash PMIs
12:30 CA- Retail Sales
12:30 CA- CPI

25-Jul MON
08:00 DE- IFO Survey
26-Jul TUE
00:30 AU- CPI
13:45 US- flash SVC PMI
14:00 US- CB Confidence
14:00 US- New Homes Sales
27-Jul WED
08:30 GB- GDP
12:30 US= Durable Goods
14:00 US- Pending Homes Sales
14:30 US- Crude
18:00 US- Fed Decision & Presser
28-Jul THU
07:55 DE- Employment
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
23:30 JP- CPI
29-Jul FRI
03:00 JP- Bank of Japan
09:00 EZ- GDP, flash HICP
12:30 US- GDP
14:00 US- final U of Mich



Trading Themes --
  • ECB President Draghi was decidedly less dovish than expected on Thursday. In essence, he said that future monetary policy decisions would be dependant on future economic developments.

  • Markets reacted badly to a month-old BBC radio documentary of BOJ Governor Kuroda where he threw cold water on the idea of "helicopter money". The markets reacted to the headlines before hearing the story was dated. Watch the Nikkei Friday. It currently is seen down 300 points.

  • The Republican Party convention winds up tonight with Trump's acceptance speech. The Democrats meet next week.

  • U.K June Retail Sales data were weaker than expected and reportedly reflected no data tainted by the Brexit vote. We will not see clean Brexit data until July figures start to come out. U.S. Existing Homes Sales were strong.

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founder Global-View.com


GVI Trading Room john 20:07 GMT July 21, 2016
Friday Trading
Reply   
Blue line (inverted) indicates the odds of a Fed rate hike by year end.

Market Sentiment Indicators--
The Fed Funds Market Sentiment Barometer reflects current sentiment about a future change in Fed policy. Odds for one rate hike by yearend are:
+53% from +53% late Wednesday.

Spot EURUSD: 1.1020
20-day avg: 1.1074
Pivot Point: 1.1019

Markets are wanting to close the gap.

GVI Forex Blog 20:00 GMT July 21, 2016
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Markets
Reply   

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Markets

Singapore SGFXTrader 19:35 GMT July 21, 2016
gold

Buy Gold
Entry: 1331.5 Target: 1340 Stop: 1327

Long Gold x 1000 lots with a tight stop at 1327.

GVI Forex Blog 19:34 GMT July 21, 2016
CHART POINTS: Free Forex Database
Reply   



Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format

CHART POINTS: Free Forex Database

Singapore SGFXTrader 19:33 GMT July 21, 2016
gold

Gold 4-hour is just insanely strong!

Singapore SGFXTrader 19:29 GMT July 21, 2016
gold

Are you retarded? Gold hourly is piercing through every line of my SMA and EMA and u are going short! You need to attend basic classes.

Maybe 1340 offer some resistance...

Singapore Td 17:10 GMT 07/21/2016
Short gold as well 1330.45, very tight stop 1334. Target open

dc CB 19:16 GMT July 21, 2016
Brexit
Reply   
Nigel Farage is in Cleveland at the Repub Convention.

dc CB 19:09 GMT July 21, 2016
Stox

PS
when SaaR KaL sez sell

don't listen to me.

Cheers

dc CB 18:59 GMT July 21, 2016
Stox

ohhhh noooo SToX are crashiing....Janet Janet Janet....turmoil

OMG the world is ending.

DOW is down 100 pts

Commuters in DC are stabbing themselves in the Beltway...causing major traffic tie-up

Oh the Losses Oh the Humanity

Livingston nh 17:54 GMT July 21, 2016
Stox
Reply   
SPX just filled the double gaps from Tuesday's Island trade - still light volume

Livingston nh 17:54 GMT July 21, 2016
Stox
Reply   
SPX just filled the double gaps from Tuesday's Island trade - still light volume

Singapore Td 17:10 GMT July 21, 2016
gold

Short gold as well 1330.45, very tight stop 1334. Target open

PAR 17:00 GMT July 21, 2016
RISK OFF
Reply   
Risk off as Draghi wants to use taxpayers money to bail out Italian banks without bondholders and shareholders losing any money . Il faut le faire 390 billion of NPL disappear without anybody losing any money .

Another Draghi Miracle from heaven . Ad a GS guy Draghi doing Gods work once more .

Kl Shawn 16:42 GMT July 21, 2016
gold

Short gold 1331 stop 1335

hk ab 15:44 GMT July 21, 2016
gold
Reply   
yesterday was really a test of patience.......

Relentless under 1325 finally reached 1312........

Now, would love to see what gold close today before next action.

Lesson learnt, always be quiet when relentless game starts.

DFM, DYOJ.

Maybe take some off table at 1333?

But if it closes above 1337........ Just in case.....

hk ab 15:32 GMT July 21, 2016
gold
Reply   
seems lots of newbies are trapped again.....

Livingston nh 15:26 GMT July 21, 2016
US Equity want south from here

Stox these days only go down on an event -- the path of least resistance is up -- negative real yields offset lo/no earnings growth so fundamentals can only do range trades

tokyo joyya 15:18 GMT July 21, 2016
US Equity want south from here

dc CB 15:08 GMT 07/21/20

i think next aug start south journey wait 20/25 days...

dc CB 15:08 GMT July 21, 2016
US Equity want south from here



Maybe. If Yellen hikes next week
Headwinds are a Boffo July and all those MMs dressing the windows.

Early?---drawdowns are a bitch.

tokyo joyya 15:07 GMT July 21, 2016
long gbp!
Reply   
Buy EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:

going long around 1.10 again .....happy trade

HK Kwun 15:05 GMT July 21, 2016
Range Trading
Reply   
Sell Gold
Entry: 1323 Target: Stop: 1333

sell now

SaaR KaL 15:01 GMT July 21, 2016
US Equity want south from here

I mean for AUG Target

GVI Forex Blog 15:00 GMT July 21, 2016
GVI Data Calendar for 22 July 2016
Reply   

July 21, 2016 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Friday, July 22, 2016. Trading News Calendar

  • Far East: JP- flash PMI
  • Europe: EZ/GB- flash PMI
  • North America: US- flash Mfg PMI, CA= Retail Scales, CPI, Rig Count, COT

WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:

22-Jul FRIDAY
All Day- Flash PMIs
12:30 CA- Retail Sales
12:30 CA- CPI

GVI Data Calendar for 22 July 2016

dc CB 14:58 GMT July 21, 2016
US Equity want south from here

fat chance of that.
Repubs wrap it up tonight

Clintoons in Philadelphia next week. Wall Street's CandyDate.

2200 SnP

SaaR KaL 14:53 GMT July 21, 2016
US Equity want south from here
Reply   
Expecting NDX Near 4300 to 4200

GVI Trading Room john 14:30 GMT July 21, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

US EIA Weekly Natural Gas Inventories (bcf)

U.S. Data Charts




ALERT
+34 vs. +39 exp vs. +64 prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer

Livingston nh 14:13 GMT July 21, 2016
Turkey
Reply   
USD/TRY off yesterday's high - Erdogan has his Emergency powers as we move into a weekend - see if folks start to move money out before they can't (say a Moody's downgrade) because Free Markets are a threat

Sell TRY against anything because Capital Controls IMO ARE ABSOLUTELY NECESSARY

GVI Forex Blog 14:09 GMT July 21, 2016
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Existing Homes Sales Better
Reply   
Most significant housing statistic. Data better than forecast.

BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Existing Homes Sales Better

Macao GB 14:07 GMT July 21, 2016
Gold
Reply   
Shall I sell more now to average my position?

GVI Trading Room john 14:00 GMT July 21, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

U.S. Leading Indicators June 2016

U.S. Data Charts




NEWS ALERT
+0.30% vs. +0.20% exp. vs. -0.20% prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Trading Room john 14:00 GMT July 21, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

U.S. Existing Homes Sales (mln) June 2016

U.S. Data Charts





ALERT
5.57 vs. vs 5.470 exp. vs 5.53 (r 5.51) prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer

LONDON SFH 13:44 GMT July 21, 2016
DRAGHI

Job done....he wants the euro weaker and didn't need to do anything-Not so powerless after all..

PAR 13:41 GMT July 21, 2016
DRAGHI

Euro near days low after Draghi press conference full of lies and half truths.

LONDON SFH 13:30 GMT July 21, 2016
NPL

Totally agree....not so much they don't like the price but they can't afford to hit the bid....end game for that mess is the ECB putting them on their b/s since the EU won't be able to find a consensus to solve the mess and it will threaten the EU.
Again a silly subsidy and moral hazard but it hasn't stopped the ecb before and won't now

PAR 13:24 GMT July 21, 2016
NPL
Reply   
It is not true that the market for NPL s is not functioning . It is just the case that Italian banks dont like the price at which they can sell their NPL s. There is always a free market at a given price . Draghi talking about a fire sale is a huge lie .

GVI Trading Room john 13:24 GMT July 21, 2016
Thursday Trading

Post Draghi equities less negative
DAX -3
DJ -29
SP -2

!0-yr 1.623% +3.8bp

Macao GB 13:23 GMT July 21, 2016
Gold
Reply   
It must be going to 1309 Master target.

LONDON SFH 13:20 GMT July 21, 2016
DRAGHI

Cent bks may be using policies that are not working but it doesn't mean they will stop....private investors still need to find returns so should focus on trading the facts/news and not the idealistic world they wish we lived in (ie the past)

LONDON SFH 13:19 GMT July 21, 2016
DRAGHI

Record highs in stock mkts globally doesn't suggest any investors leaving the mkts... Sounds like you yourself have left the mkt and don't know where to find alpha

HK Kwun 13:18 GMT July 21, 2016
1310 tested 2 times, buy

Buy Gold
Entry: 1314 Target: Stop: 1304

closed at 1317,

Brisbane Flip 13:16 GMT July 21, 2016
DRAGHI

Exactly. BRexit will prove to be great timing

PAR 13:14 GMT July 21, 2016
DRAGHI

So what . A trillion of bonds sitting to do nothing on the balance sheet of the ECB while private investors are leaving the markets . Brilliant thinking .

LONDON SFH 13:10 GMT July 21, 2016
DRAGHI

PAR 13:08 GMT 07/21/2016

To do what? Ecb has enough power considering it is long of nearly 1 trillion euros of bonds

PAR 13:08 GMT July 21, 2016
DRAGHI

Listening to Draghi it seems that the ECB has not much power . It is the commission , it are the national governments , etc.

Brisbane Flip 13:04 GMT July 21, 2016
DRAGHI

Except in the case of Irish banks

PAR 12:59 GMT July 21, 2016
DRAGHI
Reply   
Draghi in favor of public bailout of banks NPL s . Using taxpayers money to save the shareholders and bondholders of stupid extreme risk taking banks .

I win I win. I loose the taxpayer pays . Nice system .

Amman wfakhoury 12:50 GMT July 21, 2016
EUR/USD

Amman wfakhoury 11:38 GMT 07/20/2016
Ternopil SMV 10:19 GMT 07/20/2016
EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:

Mr. wfakhoury, do you have any confirmed level for eur/usd? Thanks.
____________________________
EURUSD is moving in narrow path , but we have 1.1060 as mag level
price will go up.to reach it.

_______________-

11060 reached

GVI Forex Blog 12:46 GMT July 21, 2016
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Weekly Jobless About Steady
Reply   
U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims Steady

<Click on chart for over twelve-year history

BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Weekly Jobless About Steady

PAR 12:38 GMT July 21, 2016
DRAGHI
Reply   
Draghi the perpetual pessimist . Risk for European economy tilted to the downside .

GVI Trading Room john 12:32 GMT July 21, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims

U.S. Data Charts







NEWS ALERT


Initial Claims (000)

253K vs. 265K exp. vs. 254K (r K ) prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Trading Room john 12:31 GMT July 21, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

U.S. Philly Fed Index July 2016

U.S. Data Charts




NEWS ALERT

-2.9 vs. +5.0 exp. vs. +4.7 prev.



TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI 12:09 GMT July 21, 2016
Japan $190 billion stimulus: double your money but less than meets the eye -
Reply   
"Japan is crafting a massive spending package worth about $190 billion to bolster the economy - about double the size initially floated - but a close examination shows actual public spending will be far less than the headline number suggests...
.
.
.
But despite the startling headline figure - equal to more than 4 percent of gross domestic product - real government spending to boost economic growth is actually in line with or smaller than previous expectations..."

Japan's $190 billion stimulus: 'double your money' but less than meets the eye -- Reuters.com

PAR 11:52 GMT July 21, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

ECB madness of negative interest rates to continue in the foreseeable future . European banks getting crushed and at a serious disadvantage vs US banks .

GVI Trading Room john 11:45 GMT July 21, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

European Central Bank (ECB) July 2016





NEWS ALERT

Refi Rate Steady at 0.05%
Marginal Lending Rate steady at 0.30%
Deposit Rate steady At -0.40%

Asset Purchases (QE) per mo unchanged at 60bn

Press Release: ECB Decision



TTN: Live News Special Offer

tokyo joyya 11:23 GMT July 21, 2016
long!
Reply   
Buy USDJPY
Entry: 105.5 Target: 107.5/111.5 Stop: 104

just bout some today....happy trde

london red 11:02 GMT July 21, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

yen. clearing 10643/50 brings 70/84 into focus again.

GVI Trading Room john 11:02 GMT July 21, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

The BBC said Thursday that the interview with Kuroda was conducted in mid-June.

LONDON SFH 11:02 GMT July 21, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

BBC SAYS INTERVIEW WITH BANK OF JAPAN GOVERNOR KURODA ON HELICOPTER MONEY BROADCAST ON THURSDAY WAS CONDUCTED IN MID-JUNE -- RTRS

Kaunas DP 10:37 GMT July 21, 2016
Thursday Trading

Buy AUDJPY
Entry: 79.44 Target: 80.28 Stop: 79

long now

GVI Trading Room john 09:57 GMT July 21, 2016
Thursday Trading

Post-Kuroda, the markets have flipped to risk-off
DAX -32
DJ -33
SP-3

US 10-yr 1.573% -1.2bp

london red 09:37 GMT July 21, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

syen. sup 10520/30. stops like under 105. hourly close below 105 wud suggest lower but i dont think we see it.

nw kw 09:15 GMT July 21, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

HELICOPTER gbp and xaujpy on thread

nw kw 09:11 GMT July 21, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

HELICOPTER updated to hide from radar

GVI Trading Room john 09:10 GMT July 21, 2016
As Republican Party tries to heal wounds, discord rules at convention -- Reuters.com
Reply   
"Ted Cruz was recounting to an audience how he had outlasted most of his 16 rivals for the Republican presidential nomination when a plane carrying the man who had won it all, Donald Trump, flew overhead, interrupting him mid-speech.

"All right, that was pretty well-orchestrated," said Cruz, a Republican U.S. senator from Texas who waged a bitter campaign against Trump.

Hours later Cruz would take his revenge, refusing to endorse Trump during a prime-time speech on the floor of the Republican National Convention in Cleveland. He left the podium to a chorus of boos, and his wife was escorted off the floor as the convention erupted in rancor..."

As Republican Party tries to heal wounds, discord rules at convention -- Reuters.com

GVI Trading Room john 08:55 GMT July 21, 2016
Thursday Trading

WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:

21-Jul THURSDAY
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
11:45 EZ- ECB decision
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
22-Jul FRIDAY
All Day- Flash PMIs
12:30 CA- Retail Sales
12:30 CA- CPI


Trading Themes --
  • The EUR is steady heading into the ECB meeting today. The ECB is out of ammunition and Draghi is expected to call again for fiscal stimulus from Eurozone economies.

  • BOJ Governor Kuroda threw cold water on the idea of "helicopter money" a short while ago saying there is no need. Wednesday afternoon the government floated a trial balloon about a JPY 20 tln stimulus program to support the economy. How the spending will be financed remains to be seen.

  • The Republican Party convention winds up tonight. The Democrats meet next week.

  • U.K June Retail Sales data were weaker than expected and probably reflected some partial Brexit impacts. We will not see clean Brexit data until July figures start to come out.

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founder Global-View.com


LONDON SFH 08:51 GMT July 21, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

He can only strengthn the yen..He is like draghi

dc CB 08:50 GMT July 21, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

Kuroda Chokes II, the sequel.

london red 08:45 GMT July 21, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

watch the hourly close, if finishes weak then yest low likely hit and 10520 in view, otherwise will squeeze higher to 10670.

GVI Trading Room john 08:41 GMT July 21, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

Strong JPY reaction to BOJ Kuroda comments about no need for "helicopter money".

GVI Forex Blog 08:37 GMT July 21, 2016
BREAKING NEWS: U.K. Retail Sales Miss
Reply   
U.K. Retail Sales miss.

BREAKING NEWS: U.K. Retail Sales Miss

tokyo joyya 08:37 GMT July 21, 2016
Thursday Trading

1st target met 106 next 105

LONDON SFH 08:35 GMT July 21, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

KURODA: NO NEED, AND NO POSSIBILITY FOR HELICOPTER MONEY

GVI Trading Room john 08:32 GMT July 21, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

U.K. Retail sales data misses. GBP lower.

GVI Trading Room john 08:31 GMT July 21, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

U.K. Retail Sales June 2016

U.K. Charts




-- NEWS ALERT --

mm: -0.90% vs. -0.50% exp. vs. +0.90% prev.
x-fuel
mm: -0.90% vs. -0.60% exp. vs. +1.00% (r +0.90% ) prev.

RELEASE: UK Retail Sales


TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Forex Blog 08:22 GMT July 21, 2016
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-On
Reply   

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-On

london red 08:06 GMT July 21, 2016
usdjpy

sups if 106.70 doesnt hold. 10660 10635 10560 10520. not likely we will see either of the last two but i put them out for completion.

MV yg10 07:34 GMT July 21, 2016
Gold

@Macao GB
Actually there already was ad down move from 1338 to 1311 and now gold is somewhat bouncing back.

Macao GB 07:22 GMT July 21, 2016
Gold
Reply   
Wfakhoury, you have done a great job. I am on sell to reach your 20-25 within 24 hours.

tokyo joyya 06:26 GMT July 21, 2016
usdjpy

bali sja 04:21 GMT 07/21/2016

i think next month 110/115 range...

bali sja 04:21 GMT July 21, 2016
usdjpy
Reply   
they have pushed it up to 107 why not finish the job to 110? I guess it will get close to 110

HK Kwun 02:39 GMT July 21, 2016
1310 tested 2 times, buy
Reply   
Buy Gold
Entry: 1314 Target: Stop: 1304

buy

HK Kwun 01:04 GMT July 21, 2016
keep selling after break triangle

Sell Gold
Entry: 1318 Target: Stop: 1328

Tp at 1311, breakfast time

 




Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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