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Forex Forum Archive for 07/31/2016

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dc CB 23:08 GMT July 31, 2016
Coo loo coo coo, coo coo coo coo

political polling pioneer Pat Caddell said the Reuters news service was guilty of an unprecedented act of professional malpractice after it announced Friday it has dropped the “Neither” option from their presidential campaign tracking polls and then went back and reconfigured previously released polls to present different results with a reinterpretation of the “Neither” responses in those polls.

“This comes as close as I have ever seen to cooking the results,” said the legendary pollster and political consultant. “I suppose you can get away with it in polling because there are no laws. But, if this was accounting, they would put them in jail.”

look at July 26,” he said. “On July 26 they had Trump at 41.5 percent and Hillary at 36.3. That was a 5.2 Trump margin. Then, in the new calculation, they claim that Clinton was 41.1 percent, Trump was 37.5, and the margin was 3.6 for Clinton. Same poll. Two different results. Recalculated, after you’ve announced the other results.”

“What you get is an 8.8 percentage point margin change, almost nine points swinging from one candidate, based on some phony, some bizarre allocation theory

Pat Caddell Blasts Reuters’ Back-Rigging Polls to Show Clinton Winning

Mtl JP 21:34 GMT July 31, 2016
Bond World Sees Live September for Fed, But Its September 17 -- bloomberg.com

GVI Trading Room john 11:17 - Street odds on a Fed funds rate hike by year-end a coin-toss.
vs
GVI Trading Room 20:57 - Bond World Sees Live September for Fed, But Its September 17 -- bloomberg.com
--
a cointoss - 50/50 - means pure lack of bias (or pure state of not knowing, total blindness) vs certainty in 2017
---
what do you mean by "could turn on a dime" - from not knowing to a sudden state of 100% clear certainty of a rate hike ?

GVI Trading Room john 21:09 GMT July 31, 2016
Bond World Sees Live September for Fed, But Its September 17 -- bloomberg.com

Bond market opinions on the Fed could turn on a dime depending on the Jobs data Friday.

GVI Trading Room 20:57 GMT July 31, 2016
Bond World Sees Live September for Fed, But Its September 17 -- bloomberg.com
Reply   
"Forget September, or even December. Bond traders are betting the Federal Reserve won’t be able to pull off another interest-rate increase until September next year."

Bond World Sees ‘Live’ September for Fed, But It’s September ’17 -- bloomberg.com

GVI Trading Room john 20:21 GMT July 31, 2016
EUR/USD

First EURUSD quote I have gotten is 1.1172. You can't trust early prices before the markets are open.

Ternopil SMV 19:27 GMT July 31, 2016
EUR/USD
Reply   
Hello everyone! I am confused. Today at 18:50 UTC I looked at price of eur/usd and i was shocked, price was 1.1062 and then went up to 1.1164 - http://screenshot.ru/upload/image/WF4P
Who can explain that?!!!

nw kw 17:41 GMT July 31, 2016
Chinese Yuan (Renminbi): How long will it be feasible for China

yen suffering if supports audjpy see

nw kw 17:38 GMT July 31, 2016
Chinese Yuan (Renminbi): How long will it be feasible for China

thanfor oil audcad,gl. pegged$

nw kw 17:29 GMT July 31, 2016
Chinese Yuan (Renminbi): How long will it be feasible for China



China’s Steel, Iron-Ore Futures Plummet, Obliterating Recent Gains

Weeks of increases as speculative money poured into markets have largely been erased





By
Biman Mukherji and

Rhiannon Hoyle

May 10, 2016 7:41 a.m. ET

see dat in this for aud might see a trade.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-steel-iron-ore-futures-plummet-obliterating-recent-gains-1462880500?cx_navSource=cx_picks&cx_tag=contextual&cx_artPos=3#cxrecs_s

nw kw 17:06 GMT July 31, 2016
Chinese Yuan (Renminbi): How long will it be feasible for China

channels in gbp now big banks,gl.

nw kw 16:44 GMT July 31, 2016
Chinese Yuan (Renminbi): How long will it be feasible for China

stops in aud pl.

nw kw 16:39 GMT July 31, 2016
Chinese Yuan (Renminbi): How long will it be feasible for China

In China, the New Casino Is Iron Ore

Investors pour billions into futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange

http://www.wsj.com/articles/in-china-the-new-casino-is-iron-ore-1462112857

alaska 14:28 GMT July 31, 2016
Chinese Yuan (Renminbi): How long will it be feasible for China
Reply   
Chinese Yuan (Renminbi): How long will it be feasible for China
I heard China now holds $2 trillion; Rogoff asks if they really want to be holding
$4 trillion in five years?
How long will it be feasible for China to peg its currency to the dollar at a fixed exchange rate?

GVI Trading Room 13:48 GMT July 31, 2016
Dollar Plunges Most in 2 Months as Weak GDP Signals Fed on Hold --bloomberg.com
Reply   
"The dollar tumbled the most in almost two months after a report showed U.S. economic growth fell short of expectations in the second quarter, damping speculation the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates this year.

The greenback fell against all 16 major currencies tracked by Bloomberg after the Commerce Department said gross domestic produce rose at a 1.2 percent annualized rate in the April-June period, less than half the 2.5 percent median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg..."

Dollar Plunges Most in 2 Months as Weak GDP Signals Fed on Hold --bloomberg.com

Livingston nh 13:25 GMT July 31, 2016
Morgan Stanley Warns Currency Traders Worst to Come for Dollar -- bloomberg.com

Thanx JP - hadn't heard about that one // sounds like my global warming induced purchase of Hudson Bay Citrus Plantation

GVI Trading Room john 11:17 GMT July 31, 2016
Monday Trading
Reply   


WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:

1-Aug MON
CA/CH Holiday
All Day Final PMIs
2-Aug TUE
04:30 AU- RBA Decision
12:30 US- PCE Deflator
3-Aug WED
All Day Final Service PMIs
12:15 US ADP Jobs
4-Aug THU
11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
5-Aug FRI
12:30 US/CA Employment and Trade



Trading Themes --
  • Monday sees a slew of final Manufacturing PMI's. While many will just be revisions of flash data, the fresh China and U.S. ISM data will be closely watched.

  • PM Abe is expected to announce a fiscal stimulus of what is touted to be around JPY 28 tn on Tuesday, August 2. Analysts say the underlying stimulus is likely to be one-quarter of that amount. Following the tepid Bank of Japan easing on Friday, there is a lot of room now for more disappointment.

  • Also on Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia is widely expected to reduce its Cash Rate target to 1.50% from 1.75%. Australia inflation continues to miss the central bank's targets.

  • The Bank of England meets on Thursday. The markets have already priced in a 25bp reduction in its repo rate target to 0.25% along with additional policy ease as uncertainty about the economic impact of Brexit weighs on sentiment.

  • Analysts expect a strong rise in U.S. employment on Friday of 195K. Another strong report would call into question the weak May data, but keep in mind the Fed focus is also on inflation. A strong report will have markets looking for a September or December rate hike. After a number of missteps, expect this Fed to be very cautious. Street odds on a Fed funds rate hike by year-end a coin-toss.

Haifa ac 08:05 GMT July 31, 2016
Coo loo coo coo, coo coo coo coo

"I don't think people will fully appreciate who she is until, knock on wood, she's elected president."

next 4 months will definitely determine the fate of america for the next few decades.

dc CB 00:05 GMT July 31, 2016
Coo loo coo coo, coo coo coo coo

it's gonna get
en·ter·tain·ing

stock up on week, booze and sit back
(just don't punch somebody who disagrees)

Theater (the later feature film) will be directed by Julie Taymor.
Her first Movie was Titus Andronicus

Murdock is not out of the Picture

 




Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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