GVI Trading Room john 20:13 GMT August 1, 2016
Tuesday Trading
Reply
WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:
2-Aug TUE
04:30 AU- RBA Decision
12:30 US- PCE Deflator
3-Aug WED
All Day Final Service PMIs
12:15 US ADP Jobs
4-Aug THU
11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
5-Aug FRI
12:30 US/CA Employment and Trade
Trading Themes --
- Monday saw a slew of final Manufacturing PMIs. Many were simply revisions of flash data. The freshdata came from China and U.S. Chinese data were mixed and the U.S. ISM Manufacturing data missed street estimates. The special post-Brexit flash U.K. Mfg PMI was revised down sharply.
- PM Abe is expected to announce a fiscal stimulus of what is touted to be around JPY 28 tn Tuesday. Analysts say the real underlying stimulus is likely to be one-quarter of that amount. Following the tepid Bank of Japan easing on Friday, there is a lot of room now for more disappointment.
- Also on Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia is widely expected to reduce its Cash Rate target to 1.50% from 1.75%. Australia inflation continues to miss the central bank's targets.
- The Bank of England meets Thursday. The markets have already priced in a 25bp reduction in its repo rate target to 0.25% along with aditional policy ease as uncertainty about the economic impact of Brexit weighs on sentiment.
- Analysts expect a strong rise in U.S. employment on Friday of 195K. Another strong report would call into question the weak May data, but keep in mind the Fed focus is also on inflation. A strong report will have markets looking for a September or December rate hike. After a number of missteps, expect this Fed to be very cautious. Street odds on a Fed funds rate hike by year-end a coin-toss.
John M. Bland, MBA
co-founder Global-View.com
GVI Trading Room john 17:35 GMT August 1, 2016
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Markets
WTI holding just barely above $40. It has tested below ($39.88 LOD). Weak crude is a weight on S&P
GVI Forex Blog 16:29 GMT August 1, 2016
GVI Data Calendar for 2 August 2016
Reply
August 1, 2016 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Tuesday, August 2, 2016. Trading News Calendar
- Fae East: AU- RBA decision
- Europe: CH- PMI, UK- Construction PMI
- North America: CA- Mfg PMI, US- Personal Income, PCE Deflator, Crude
WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:
1-Aug MON
CA/CH Holiday
All Day Final PMIs
2-Aug TUE
04:30 AU- RBA Decision
12:30 US- PCE Deflator
3-Aug WED
All Day Final Service PMIs
12:15 US ADP Jobs
4-Aug THU
11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
5-Aug FRI
12:30 US/CA Employment and Trade
GVI Data Calendar for 2 August 2016
dc CB 16:11 GMT August 1, 2016
Monday Trading
Oil flirting with the 39 handle
dc CB 15:05 GMT August 1, 2016
Monday Trading
After years in the making, a post-crisis rule to prevent a run on the money-market industry will finally take effect this October. It will force funds that oversee about $600 billion to abandon a fixed $1-a-share price and float their net asset value. But because businesses and state governments treat the funds like bank accounts, the prospect of prices falling below a buck is causing a big shift into money-market funds that buy only government debt.
Estimates suggest between now and mid-October, the influx may produce an extra $400 billion or more in demand for short-term government securities and put a squeeze on a sizable chunk of the $1.51 trillion bill market.
A $400 Billion Influx Squeezes U.S. Bond Market’s Safest Asset
hk ab 14:31 GMT August 1, 2016
gold
Reply
keep selling gold near 1350......
Livingston nh 13:15 GMT August 1, 2016
Monday Trading
NY FED Dudley o/n comments talking the FOMC book - all the key points mentioned "trajectory", "headwinds", "global risk" and Friday's "Sluggish GDP" so traders push Fed moves further off the radar screen
BUT -- GDP should be good news for the FOMC - the spread between real and nominal Q2/16 GDP is 2.3% the same as in 2014 and 2015 -- so inflation (not the preferred flavor, of course) remains consistent, above 2% and rising (RED line in chart)
GVI Trading Room john 11:04 GMT August 1, 2016
Monday Trading
Equities--cautious start
DAX -1
DJ +13
SP +1
10-yr 1.484% +1.7bp
U.S. GDP a game changer?
GVI Trading Room john 09:45 GMT August 1, 2016
Monday Trading
Blue line (inverted) indicates the odds of a Fed rate hike by year end.
Market Sentiment Indicators--
The Fed Funds Market Sentiment Barometer reflects current sentiment about a future change in Fed policy. Odds for one rate hike by yearend are:
+40% from +51% late Thursday.
Spot EURUSD: 1.1170
20-day avg: 1.1061
Pivot Point: 1.1151
GVI Trading Room john 08:53 GMT August 1, 2016
Monday Trading
WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:
1-Aug MON
CA/CH Holiday
All Day Final PMIs
2-Aug TUE
04:30 AU- RBA Decision
12:30 US- PCE Deflator
3-Aug WED
All Day Final Service PMIs
12:15 US ADP Jobs
4-Aug THU
11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
5-Aug FRI
12:30 US/CA Employment and Trade
Trading Themes --
- Monday sees a slew of final Manufacturing PMI's. While many will just be revisions of flash data, the fresh China and U.S. ISM data will be closely watched. Chinese PMI data were mixed to better. U.K. Mfg PMI was revised down sharply.
- PM Abe is expected to announce a fiscal stimulus of what is touted to be around JPY 28 tn on Tuesday, August 2. Analysts say the underlying stimulus is likely to be one-quarter of that amount. Following the tepid Bank of Japan easing on Friday, there is a lot of room now for more disappointment.
- Also on Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia is widely expected to reduce its Cash Rate target to 1.50% from 1.75%. Australia inflation continues to miss the central bank's targets.
- The Bank of England meets on Thursday. The markets have already priced in a 25bp reduction in its repo rate target to 0.25% along with aditional policy ease as uncertainty about the economic impact of Brexit weighs on sentiment.
- Analysts expect a strong rise in U.S. employment on Friday of 195K. Another strong report would call into question the weak May data, but keep in mind the Fed focus is also on inflation. A strong report will have markets looking for a September or December rate hike. After a number of missteps, expect this Fed to be very cautious. Street odds on a Fed funds rate hike by year-end a coin-toss.
John M. Bland, MBA
co-founder Global-View.com
GVI Trading Room john 08:30 GMT August 1, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:
Big downward revisin
Amman wfakhoury 07:15 GMT August 1, 2016
GBPUSD
Reply
Have a good luck in trading ..see you coming SEP.
hk ab 06:50 GMT August 1, 2016
GBPUSD add buy signal
wfak,
someone DID follow your way and ave. down to buy more like how you DID with GBP.....
Let's see if GB needs to dig a grave......
Amman wfakhoury 06:42 GMT August 1, 2016
GBPUSD add buy signal
Reply
Amman wfakhoury 12:31 GMT 07/30/2016
On 22JUL16 GBPUSD confirmed level 13303.
Accordingly I bought at 13279
Price moved against me .I just followed the next part of signal
add buy .
I made too much profit buy adding buy and exit with profit.
until yesterday I closed them with profit too.
The only one in the world who confirms the next level
Amman wfakhoury 06:38 GMT August 1, 2016
USDJPY
Reply
Warning
_____________
Don't follow me or trade my signals if you have no idea about
my rules and strategy .
Have in mind there is no action will be taken before 24-36 hours
in case price move against your order and have in mind price
may go deep against you .
The only one in the world who confirms the next level
Amman wfakhoury 06:27 GMT August 1, 2016
103.60
Macao GB 01:03 GMT 08/01/2016
Buy USDJPY
Entry: Target: Stop:
I have bought 4 positions based on Master's signal 104.60.
I learnt from Master and I average down. But my last position could only be 103. Average now is 103.30
What should I do? Now holding 10 positions. Any chance for 104.60?
_____________________________-
USDJPY return level 103.40 first then 104 60
101.90 if price below it you have to change position into sell
but this is weak possiblity
hk ab 06:08 GMT August 1, 2016
gold
Reply
take half 1346.5
Singapore SGFXTrader 04:19 GMT August 1, 2016
103.60
I support your view. We should help fellow traders. We have been in these difficult shoe before. We are here to make money, make pips and most important make more friends. Unity is strength!
I also recommend that you cut your position at break even point at 103.2x - 3x. Give it a 10pips +/-.
Mysore Forexveda 03:49 GMT 08/01/2016
Manila Tom, If you can't help a fellow trader, you must shut up and focus only on your trading. Macao GB, averaging is a guaranteed way to lose the capital. Sugeest you to exit positions at 103.30
hk ab 04:17 GMT August 1, 2016
yen
Reply
FWIW, closed 102.60 but too focused on gold and forgot to mention this.
hk ab 16:34 GMT July 29, 2016
long yen : Reply
Buy USDJPY
Entry: 102.20 Target: Stop: 101.69
long again.
manila tom 03:57 GMT August 1, 2016
103.60
some people dont want to be helped even if you want to help them
what can i say? blind faith to the so called master, the one, BS
let him learn the lesson
Singapore SGFXTrader 03:54 GMT August 1, 2016
103.60
GB, it all depends on whether can USDJPY break above 103 on the next 4-hour.
Japan stock market is in the green but the UsdJPY and GBPJPY and Eurjpy, Audjpy are not moving up substantially. This is abit strange.
Macao GB 01:03 GMT 08/01/2016
Buy USDJPY
Entry: Target: Stop:
I have bought 4 positions based on Master's signal 104.60.
I learnt from Master and I average down. But my last position could only be 103. Average now is 103.30
Mysore Forexveda 03:49 GMT August 1, 2016
103.60
Manila Tom, If you can't help a fellow trader, you must shut up and focus only on your trading. Macao GB, averaging is a guaranteed way to lose the capital. Sugeest you to exit positions at 103.30
manila tom 03:34 GMT August 1, 2016
103.60
macao gb, can bend over and let him come from behind then you both can see 104.60
Singapore SGFXTrader 03:22 GMT August 1, 2016
gbp/jpy
Entered few long positions at 135 and 136.
Target is at least 300 pips from 135. This is based on 4 hour chart.
GLGT.
hk ab 02:24 GMT August 1, 2016
gold
Reply
Reshort again 1350.
Macao GB 01:03 GMT August 1, 2016
103.60
Reply
Buy USDJPY
Entry: Target: Stop:
I have bought 4 positions based on Master's signal 104.60.
I learnt from Master and I average down. But my last position could only be 103. Average now is 103.30
What should I do? Now holding 10 positions. Any chance for 104.60?
BREAKING NEWS: China PMIs better
We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.