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Forex Forum Archive for 08/19/2016

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GVI Forex Blog 22:27 GMT August 19, 2016
Fed Communications A Tower Of Babel
Reply   

John M. Bland, MBA

Fed Wants To Raise Interest Rates
Comments by top Fed officials, some of whom were once policy doves, suggest that that there is a growing faction in its leadership in favor of an early "normalization" of monetary policy

Fed Communications A Tower Of Babel

GVI Trading Room john bland 22:23 GMT August 19, 2016
Commitment Of Traders Report

COT Reports tell me where the stops are. Its pretty much all we get. I suggest those who don't like them to ignore them. I like them and plan to continue posting them. I'm not sure what triggered this nasty attack today? Odd...

Mtl JP 21:06 GMT August 19, 2016
Commitment Of Traders Report

btw.. one must note the "-" sign ... those are negative NET LONG, i,.e record net short pound positions.

it is just weird, potentially confusing presentation...

Mtl JP 21:01 GMT August 19, 2016
Commitment Of Traders Report

not sure why I or anyone bothers with the Commitment Of Traders Report GVI Trading Room john bland 19:48 other than for comical relief of too much time on one's hand as I have never seen an actionable trade call come out of it.

but IF there is the teeny potential trade idea, it may come from the Net GBP COT Position under the twin Net GBP and CHF COT Positions post: looks like some kind of a momentum going on despite the theory of extreme positions being vulnerable to occasional corrections.

Bottom Line
In light of rockstar's of Central banking Carney's pretensions that weak and weaker gbp is a good Brexit mitigator (haha), I am thinking gbp is a sell on rallies (review last few weeks' priceaction for reference)

Maybe I ll make a few posi-pips off the policy-making cretin afterall on one of these fine trading days.

Mtl JP 20:17 GMT August 19, 2016
Anyone got any good systems they use?

emily are you not one using some free system that makes "75% Profit in 60 Minutes" ?

alaska emily devidson 20:10 GMT August 19, 2016
Anyone got any good systems they use?
Reply   
Sell GBPCHF
Entry: Target: Stop:

Hello Everyone,
Just joining the forum.
I prefer not to sit in front of computer all the time so just 1-2 good trades a day is all really looking for.
Anyone want to share?
Also any nadex traders here?

Mtl JP 19:59 GMT August 19, 2016
CHART POINTS: Free Forex Database

19:56 - gvi // what is the pic about.. why is it there ?

GVI Forex Blog 19:56 GMT August 19, 2016
CHART POINTS: Free Forex Database
Reply   



Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format

CHART POINTS: Free Forex Database

Mtl JP 19:55 GMT August 19, 2016
Friday Trading

nh usdcad is best traded off a pure and consistent set of basic chart technicals, unpolluted by fundies

london red 19:49 GMT August 19, 2016
GBP

You may have wondered why sturgeon has recently gone quiet on a second scotref, well the reason is polls havent moved in her favour and a slight majority still favour remaining with the union. The end of days scenario predicted by some, hasnt come to pass with brexit, so that wont have helped her poll either. The reality is that the scots are subsidised to the tune of 20bn a year and are basing much of their future income on oil and we all know how reliable oil income streams are. For me not really commercially viable on its own or at least not very stable but I do hope they get their ref and win it as it will create a good opportunity but nothing good will come out of it for scotland in the long run. I would expect heavy depreciation of the scottish pound or whatever it is they will have.

GVI Trading Room john bland 19:48 GMT August 19, 2016
Commitment Of Traders Report
Reply   

Commitment of Trader Report Charts Trader Positions: EUR, JPY, CHF, GBP


Net EUR JPY COT Positions



Click on chart for EUR COT Details






Click on chart forJPY COT Details



X+++++
Net GBP and CHF COT Positions





Click on chart for COT Details







Click on chart for COT Details


Net AUD and CAD COT Positions





Click on chart for COT Details







Click on chart for COT Details




G+++++

Commitment of Trader Report Charts Trader Positions: CAD, AUD, Gold, Oil


Net Crude, Gold, S&P and 10-yr Positions







Click on chart for COT Details










Click on chart for COT Details










Click on chart for COT Details










Click on chart for COT Details






dc CB 19:12 GMT August 19, 2016
GBP

the Irish Times reported that Bank of Ireland is set to become the first domestic financial institution to pass on the ECB's negative rates to customers for placing their money on deposit with the bank. The newspaper has learned that Bank of Ireland, which is 14% owned by the State, has informed its large corporate and institutional customers that it plans to charge them a negative rate of -0.1% for deposits of 10 million or more starting in October.

Ulster Bank, which is owned by UK lender Royal Bank of Scotland, has already quietly introduced negative interest rates for a small number of large corporate clients.

Two More Banks Start Charging Select Clients For Holding Cash

Livingston nh 18:17 GMT August 19, 2016
Friday Trading

JP -- It was a painful experience and I stayed too long -- this time I'm in only 'til Monday if it doesn't pop -- will keep trying because I see this as a Home Run for the next few months (Moody's delayed and it looks like Fitch too)

Re: Cad -- it was just too much false hope on every turn // Fed, oil and Trudeau were no help

Mtl JP 18:07 GMT August 19, 2016
Friday Trading

nh just looked at the swap long usd/try cost: takes a masochist to trade this pair

Mtl JP 17:59 GMT August 19, 2016
Friday Trading

oh.. and Gold priceaction. Even if only paper-ized version

Mtl JP 17:10 GMT August 19, 2016
Friday Trading



NH here is but one cardinal usdcad point I am looking at
also some dmas like the 100dma

GVI Trading Room john bland 17:03 GMT August 19, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

US Weekly Baker-Hughes Rig Count

U.S. Data Charts




ALERT
Total (inc gas) U.S.: 491 vs 481 (+10) prev
US (oil): 406 vs. 396 (+10) prev

Canada 121 vs. 126 (-5) prev



TTN: Live News Special Offer


GVI Forex Blog 16:51 GMT August 19, 2016
GVI Data Calendar for 22 August 2016
Reply   

 

August 19, 2016 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Monday, August 22, 2016.

  • Far East: No Major Data
  • Europe: No Major Data
  • North America: No Major Data

WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:
22-Aug MON
No Major Data
23-Aug TUE
ALL DAY flash PMIs
24-Aug WED
08:00 DE- IFO Survey
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
14:30 US- Crude
25-Aug THU
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:45 US- flash SVC PMI
26-Aug FRI
08:30 GB- GDP
12:30 US- University of Michigan
14:00 US- Yellen at Jackson Hole

GVI Data Calendar for 22 August 2016

hk ab 15:37 GMT August 19, 2016
gold
Reply   
trail hit.

Brisbane Flip 15:11 GMT August 19, 2016
GBP

Scotland won't. They are conservative status quo types guided by self interest. The same people who voted to stay in EU also voted to stay in Britain when given the chance. Scots have family links throughout UK. Scotland's major trading and cultural partner is England. After hundreds of years being controlled by London why would you then vote to instead be controlled by Brussels??
NI is more complicated. I don't think Britain would lose much sleep about NI leaving and possibly joining Ireland.

Belgrade Knez 14:48 GMT August 19, 2016
GBP


london red

what if Scotland and N.I. separate from UK? would brexit be still good for England and Wales at that situation?

LONDON SFH 14:25 GMT August 19, 2016
gold

ab-I got out at 1346 too-was inspired to go long thanks to your post-I used to trade gold quite actively but rarely do these days-have a great weekend

hk ab 14:21 GMT August 19, 2016
gold
Reply   
exit 90% at 1346, rest trailed. Happy weekend.

london red 14:13 GMT August 19, 2016
GBP

clearly some still were hoping brexit wasnt going to happen and it caused a kneejerk reactions from those folks. but of course it will happen and it will cause some discomfort initially but the uk will be better off at the end of it, assuming a strong will on the side of the uk gov in getting the right deal. they arent rushing in, building up the team required, so im cautiously confident that theyll get the right deal done over the next 3 or 4 years.

hk ab 14:01 GMT August 19, 2016
gold
Reply   
LOL, you know winning with the "bangsters" indicator is an inconvenient truth!

Just taken others' factory again......

nw kw 13:54 GMT August 19, 2016
gold

golds pairs badly imbalanced, fx big reversals or trend for now,

nw kw 13:46 GMT August 19, 2016
Friday Trading

mxn must be dun selling xag for cheap, gold topped stabilizing bonds, with chop

LONDON SFH 13:44 GMT August 19, 2016
gold

ok thanks ab- gl/gt

hk ab 13:41 GMT August 19, 2016
gold

SFH, I think should be around 1345-46....... if no yen accident.......

nw kw 13:40 GMT August 19, 2016
Friday Trading

usa not shopping in ca / on line strong poste man working hard / food cheap and bank reported on hold for stimulus results//but it was cheap stimulus, again cad gets free cash// September is April to cad free cash. internationals I follow, looks dispirit and eur bund? bond are bad, so haven ca

LONDON SFH 13:35 GMT August 19, 2016
gold

Hi ab-I went long gold at 1341....do you have a target in mind for today?

GVI Trading Room 13:26 GMT August 19, 2016
GBP
Reply   
GBP has been under renewed selling pressure -- this appears to have been a catalyst just now

09:20 (UK) UK govt reportedly most likely to trigger Brexit by April 2017 - press

- Source TradeTheNews.com

hk ab 13:15 GMT August 19, 2016
usd
Reply   
They way that usd weakens across the board is not usual.....

It may be the early sign of those one out of 20 years event......

HK [email protected] 13:04 GMT August 19, 2016
gold


Put an eye on 1340.50.

London AzaForex 13:03 GMT August 19, 2016
Day trading strategies on the currency pair USDCHF 19-08-201
Reply   


Sell USDCHF
Entry: Target: Stop:

Day trading strategies on the currency pair USDCHF 19-08-2016 by AzaForex forex broker

hk ab 13:02 GMT August 19, 2016
gold

BINGO!!!

Now buy relentless.....

GVI Forex Blog 12:49 GMT August 19, 2016
BREAKING NEWS: Canada CPI and Retail Sales Miss
Reply   
Canada: CPI mixed. Canada: Retail Sales miss expectations

BREAKING NEWS: Canada CPI and Retail Sales Miss

Livingston nh 12:48 GMT August 19, 2016
Friday Trading

Back in on USD/TRY // any thots about BoC cutting?// Option expiration so STOX may get a bit jumpy

I hate Fridays

GVI Trading Room john bland 12:34 GMT August 19, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

Canada retail sales and CPI miss

GVI Trading Room john bland 12:32 GMT August 19, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

Canada: CPI (July) Retail Sales (June) 2016

Canada Charts






NEWS ALERT
Bank of Canada Core
yy: +2.10% vs. +2.10% exp. vs. +2.10% prev.
Headline
mm: -0.20% vs. -0.10% exp. vs. +0.20% prev.
yy:+1.30% vs. +1.30% exp. vs. +1.50% prev.

.

Retail Sales
Headline: -0.10% vs. 0.50% exp. vs. +0.20% (r) prev.
X-Autos: -0.80% vs. +0.30% exp. vs. +0.90% (r) prev.



TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Trading Room john bland 12:20 GMT August 19, 2016
Friday Trading

NEXT FRIDAY

August 26 Speech - Chair Janet L. Yellen
The Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy Toolkit
At the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Symposium: Designing Resilient Monetary Policy Frameworks for the Future, Jackson Hole, Wyoming
10:00 a.m. ET

Berlin DG 12:18 GMT August 19, 2016
BUY GBP/JPY
Reply   
entry 131.20
stop/limit 50/100 pips

Kl Fs 11:47 GMT August 19, 2016
gold

After that then what? 1338 to 1425?

HK [email protected] 11:32 GMT August 19, 2016
gold



1338 possible too.

hk ab 10:55 GMT August 19, 2016
gold
Reply   
hm....set my limit profit at 1340.....

GVI Trading Room Jay Meisler 10:13 GMT August 19, 2016
Friday Trading

red, excellent call (high was 1.1366, low 1.1304)

london red 16:36 GMT August 18, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:: Reply
im suggesting sell 60/65 first cover 113-11315 and look to reverse there with stop below todays low.

nw kw 10:09 GMT August 19, 2016
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Markets

plan b the weekly audcad on big pivot, loss long soft jpy after audcad weekly new support ride audjpy revealed.cash looks heavy to cad for now or markets on ronge side. usd and aud swings pumping eur,,gbp, eur stops and trend for need fed plays this gane for granny reloading cot for big stops,china still spending usa bonds bets? aud strength or EM market strong from soft fed all for now,gl,kw.
COMMFERMED from fed////// whackers,funny trend,

nw kw 09:43 GMT August 19, 2016
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Markets

bets au on aud/cad,gl. see a trade for stops, gifted oil bonds, spiky in play?

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/

london red 08:55 GMT August 19, 2016
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Markets

nice article from the ft, its gated but well worth a read especially for those new to the markets.

Is greed good? No it's seriously bad for your wealth.

https://www.ft.com/content/f16edc12-65d1-11e6-a08a-c7ac04ef00aa



london red 08:46 GMT August 19, 2016
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Markets

euro update. tgt range met and was set to cover and reverse but id stay short pulling stop to 52 while using a fluid stop ahead of that above the current hours high, likely to be 30 given that we are significantly lower with a quarter to go. daily straddle barely 35 pips. for yen just short of 40 pips. not much for a friday but no headline data from us either so to be expected.

GVI Trading Room john bland 08:44 GMT August 19, 2016
Friday Trading


WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:
19-Aug FRI
12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales

22-Aug MON
No Major Data
23-Aug TUE
ALL DAY flash PMIs
24-Aug WED
08:00 DE- IFO Survey
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
14:30 US- Crude
25-Aug THU
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:45 US- flash SVC PMI
26-Aug FRI
08:30 GB- GDP
12:30 US- University of Michigan
14:00 US- Yellen at Jackson Hole


Trading Themes --
  • The outlook for Fed policy continues to dominate the markets more than it otherwise should. The ongoing stream of conflicting opinions about future policy persist in confusing the markets. Perhaps it is past time for the central bank to revamp its "transparency" experiment and return to a policy of sending policy guidence only from the top.

  • Although a September rate hike is unlikely, it is not completely out of the question. N.Y. Fed President Dudley disappointed markets Thursday when he had nothing new to say on Fed policy. I feel the central bank has been doing all it can to lay the groundwork for an eventual interest rate increase.

  • Traders continue to wonder about the EURUSD bounce this week. I continue to feel that the sudden EUR demand is related to repatriations related to concern about the capitalization of key EU banks. All we can continue to do is to let this play out.

  • The calendar today is light with key Canadian CPI and Retail Sales data the highlights.

  • John M. Bland, MBA
    co-founder Global-View.com


perth wtr 08:21 GMT August 19, 2016
buy euro
Reply   
buy 1.1315, stop 1.1269, target 1.1410

perth wtr 06:35 GMT August 19, 2016
buy gold

wow nice, got the spike, out 1350.80
reload later

jkt abel 05:59 GMT August 19, 2016
sell usdjpy

better place to go short is 100.80-90 IMHO, lets see

singapore td 04:51 GMT August 19, 2016
sell usdjpy

i am in also, sold 100.32, stop 100.68

perth wtr 04:38 GMT August 19, 2016
sell usdjpy
Reply   
short 100.30-50, stop 100.73
target open, will close before weekend

perth wtr 04:31 GMT August 19, 2016
buy gold
Reply   
slow trading, buy 1347, target 1351, stop 1344

Hong Kong 01:57 GMT August 19, 2016
AceTrader Aug 19: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views USD/JPY
Reply   
19 Aug 2016 01:09GMT

USD/JPY - ...... The greenback proved quite tricky to trade as despite initial rise from Asian low at 99.65 to 100.35, price briefly retreated to 99.74 in early Europe before rising to intra-day high at 100.50 in Europe.
However, dlr pared its gains n dropped to 99.85 in New York afternoon before rebounding again to 100.44 at Asian open today.

Since there is no major economic data due today, price is likely to trade in choppy fashion.

Bids are now seen at 99.80/90 and more below at 99.60/70 with stops building up below there whilst initial offers are noted at 100.90/00.

Sydney ACC 00:31 GMT August 19, 2016
Gold/Silver/Bronze

See attached link

Link

Sydney ACC 00:30 GMT August 19, 2016
Gold/Silver/Bronze
Reply   
And you thought USA was top of the medal table.

Not according to the EU.

hk ab 00:24 GMT August 19, 2016
gold
Reply   
Gold is heavy whenever the fishes buy......

Always safe to go against these free gifts from heaven.

 




Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
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C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
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AAEZ/CH- Holiday
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