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Forex Forum Archive for 08/22/2016

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dc CB 23:56 GMT August 22, 2016
Truth or tinhat...

On Friday, the New York Times reported that Clinton told FBI officials former Secretary of State Colin Powell had advised her to use a personal email account while she held the Secretary of State office herself.

"Her people have been trying to pin it on me," Powell, 79, told PEOPLE Saturday night at the Apollo in the Hamptons 2016 Night of Legends fête in East Hampton, New York.

"The truth is, she was using [the private email server] for a year before I sent her a memo telling her what I did," Powell added.

Colin Powell Says Hillary Clinton's 'People Have Been Trying to Pin' Email Scandal on Him

dc CB 23:52 GMT August 22, 2016
Monday Trading

hope you got a piece of that Oil collapse.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Today's market action was up there for the "most fucXing idiotically algo-driven ever" award... as equity indices and VIX were spanked at 930, 1030, 1130, 1230, 1330, and 1430 before the self-organization idiots figured out their own pattern and backed off... (NO, there was no headline catalysts for these moves)

"Orchestrated Chaos" - Stocks Rollercoaster Despite Oil, Dollar, Bond Yield Tumble

Mtl JP 23:46 GMT August 22, 2016
Dollar strengthens on Fischer's upbeat comments --reuters.com

CB 23:41 re no less than $4 trillion in QE will be needed
got Gold ?

dc CB 23:44 GMT August 22, 2016
Truth or tinhat...
Reply   
There is the greatest conspiracy of all time. The corrupt politicians have completely corrupted mainstream media. They even organized the overthrow at Fox News because that was the only station they could not take over. Everything from CNN, ABC, NBC, CBS, and countless newspapers are all out for a coronation of Hillary at the complete expense of the free press. We may never again be able to trust anything they say or print and this is becoming so blatant and in your face, even the New York Post, long on the fringe, has come out with the bold headline: American journalism is collapsing before our eyes. They are too greedy for power to know what they do, but that is no excuse for the treason they are carrying out against the American people.

The Collapse Of American Free Press: Martin Armstrong Rages "It's Just Over"

dc CB 23:41 GMT August 22, 2016
Dollar strengthens on Fischer's upbeat comments --reuters.com

... but that when the US economy slides into the next sharp recession, no less than $4 trillion in QE will be needed to stabilize the economy, bringing the Fed's total holdings of government bonds to well over 30%. And with that in mind, we look forward to what "upside rate hike surprises" Yellen has in store for the market this coming Friday, especially if the politically-tasked Bureau of Labor Services continues to surprise to the upside with fresh record numbers of minimum-wage restaurant workers and bartenders.

Fed Admits Another $4 Trillion In QE Will Be Needed

GVI Trading Room john bland 20:12 GMT August 22, 2016
Tuesday Trading
Reply   


WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:
23-Aug TUE
ALL DAY flash PMIs
24-Aug WED
08:00 DE- IFO Survey
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
14:30 US- Crude
25-Aug THU
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:45 US- flash SVC PMI
26-Aug FRI
08:30 GB- GDP
12:30 US- University of Michigan
14:00 US- Yellen at Jackson Hole


Trading Themes --
  • The highlight of this week is Fed Chair Yellen's address Friday morning at the Kansas City Fed symposium at Jackson Hole, Wyoming. She is slated to speak on the economy and presumably will present a hopeful message. I expect she feels the economy is strong enough now to withstand a modest step towards a normalization of monetary policy.

  • It might be that Vice Chair Fischer and NY Fed President Dudley recently have been laying the groundwork for a December rate hike signal. I still feel the Fed would like to avoid making a monetary policy change this close to a national election. Waiting until December would be an easy policy decision to make.

  • It appears that some are starting to reconsider their negative GBP outlook as they feel that the UK could flourish once it is out from under the thumb of Brussels. Furthermore, the sharp decline of the GBP since Brexit is expected to be a significant economic stimulus. Note how short the market is in GBP according to the COT table below. This is not a trade you will want to get into its too early. Its one to jump on once the momentum has turned.

  • The economic calendar picks up on Tuesday with flash global PMIs and a number of U.S. other releases.

  • John M. Bland, MBA
    co-founder Global-View.com

GVI Forex Blog 19:55 GMT August 22, 2016
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Markets
Reply   

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Markets

GVI Forex Blog 19:42 GMT August 22, 2016
CHART POINTS: Free Forex Database
Reply   



Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format

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Mtl JP 17:36 GMT August 22, 2016
Dollar strengthens on Fischer's upbeat comments --reuters.com

1.1326
further to JP 15:56 , I like gv's chartpoints:
10 day 1.1223
20 day 1.1156

I think players will play Janet and her gang members and euro will take out the so-far Aug 1.1105 low

Print above 1.14 makes me a monkey.

HK [email protected] 17:17 GMT August 22, 2016
The EU Crackpot.
Reply   

'Borders are the worst invention ever!' EU chief Jean-Claude Juncker widens rift with European leaders as he calls for open borders
Juncker risks widening splits with EU leaders with contentious remarks
Says borders should be scrapped despite migrant rush and terror attacks
Insists a stronger EU is best way to combating rising trend in nationalism


Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3752939/Borders-worst-invention-EU-chief-Jean-Claude-Juncker-widens-rift-European-leaders-calls-borders-opened.html#ixzz4I5AsR38b
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter - DailyMail on Facebook

Mtl JP 16:02 GMT August 22, 2016
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Markets

Blog 15:53 haha, Italian yields must be a function of player total confidence in Draghi's absolute commitment to supporting Italian treasuries. Allegedly Italy's banks hold apprx a 1/3rd of the EU's trillion worth of NPLs... pffft ... what energy - do not let a butterly land - is required to collapse this deck of crap banking cards ?

Mtl JP 15:56 GMT August 22, 2016
Dollar strengthens on Fischer's upbeat comments --reuters.com

I suggest there is too much focus on Janet and her gang and maybe not enough on player reaction. Trading, I submit, is about anticipating what the player collective will do: buy or sell the bullsh!t.

Bottom Line:
the USD is and will be subject to an uP bias and be BoD until some period of time prior to Yellens Jackson Hole yak on Friday.

Currently I keep my robot restrained to eurdlr sell only.

GVI Forex Blog 15:53 GMT August 22, 2016
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Markets
Reply   

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Markets

PAR 15:47 GMT August 22, 2016
PPT
Reply   
Instead of planning to raise rates Yellen orders PPT to buy more stock index futures . The FED balance sheet keeps expanding thanks to reinvestments of received interest .
It has become a perpetuum mobile investment vehicle .

Mtl JP 15:45 GMT August 22, 2016
Dollar strengthens on Fischer's upbeat comments --reuters.com

PAR with all the wisdom spouted about what the FED is, is not, wants and not and other plums of meaningful allegations, why not co-opt the cretins into formulating profitable trades ? They are , after all, just another input in the trading algorithm especially when so much is known about them with so much certainty.

GVI Forex Blog 13:54 GMT August 22, 2016
GVI Data Calendar for 23 August 2016
Reply   

August 22, 2016 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Tuesday, August 23, 2016.

  • Far East: JP- Flash PMI
  • Europe: EZ- flash PMIs
  • North America: US- flash Mfg PMI, Richmond Fed, New Homes Sales, 2-yr Auction, Discount Rate Minutes, API Crude

WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:
23-Aug TUE
ALL DAY flash PMIs
24-Aug WED
08:00 DE- IFO Survey
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
14:30 US- Crude
25-Aug THU
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:45 US- flash SVC PMI
26-Aug FRI
08:30 GB- GDP
12:30 US- University of Michigan
14:00 US- Yellen at Jackson Hole

GVI Data Calendar for 23 August 2016

hk ab 13:32 GMT August 22, 2016
gold
Reply   
we just collect the last supporting indicator to sell gold now....fwiw.

RF should be thrilled.

London AzaForex 13:16 GMT August 22, 2016
Day trading strategies on GOLD 22-08-2016 by AzaForex forex
Reply   


Sell Gold
Entry: Target: Stop:

Day trading strategies on GOLD 22-08-2016 by AzaForex forex broker

GVI Trading Room john bland 12:39 GMT August 22, 2016
Monday Trading

Equities Risk-Off
DAX -58
DJ -40
S&P -3.0

10-yr 1.5610% -2.7bp

PAR 12:34 GMT August 22, 2016
RISK ON
Reply   
Nobody believes the FED hike story . Yellen to be extremely dovish and see if she can save her job under a new president .

GVI Forex Blog 12:28 GMT August 22, 2016
Managed Forex
Reply   

Managed Forex is a specific investment where professional traders offer to invest your funds into the world wide currency markets with the objective of creating a profit each month

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PAR 12:20 GMT August 22, 2016
Crude - Dollar
Reply   
USA wants higher crude prices to support its energy industry . This implies a lower dollar and no rate hikes .
Fed members are just spreading plenty of lies and untruths .

Kaunas DP 11:39 GMT August 22, 2016
sell gbp/usd
Reply   
Sell GBPUSD
Entry: 1.3108 Target: 1.3000 Stop: 1.3122

shorted

Mtl JP 11:12 GMT August 22, 2016
Gold Short Term Idea

higher Gold price implies lower yields

dfsdf sdfsdf 10:54 GMT August 22, 2016
Gold Forecast (15 August -23 August 2016)

Sell DATA
Entry: sdfsdf Target: dfsd Stop: fsdfdsf

Last week's statements of a number of Fed officials indicating that there is a high probability of raising interest rates in the US in the coming months, contribute to the strengthening of the dollar on the foreign exchange market and the weakening of prices for precious metals, including gold.

After the release on Wednesday of the minutes of the July meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the dollar dropped massively on the foreign exchange market. The minutes showed that there is no consensus between the leaders of the Fed about monetary tightening in the US in the coming months. The Fed did not take on the obligations regarding the rate increase, making it clear that it will depend on the incoming US economic indicators.

However, on Friday, the US dollar regained some of the previously lost positions after the two representatives of the Fed's management made statements that strengthened expectations of an increase in key interest rate this year. On Tuesday, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Dennis Lockhart said he did not rule out a rate hike in September. "Next year we will raise rates twice or even more," said Dennis Lockhart. Also Tuesday, President of the Federal Reserve New York William Dudley said that the central bank is close to the point where it will have to hike the rates.

The statements by President of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco John Williams he had made on Thursday that the central bank should start raising interest rates "sooner rather than later", supported the dollar on Friday. December COMEX gold futures on Friday closed down 0.8% at 1346.20 dollars per troy ounce.

Rising interest rates usually puts pressure on gold, because in this case interest earning assets are becoming more popular. A stronger dollar also makes gold, whose prices are denominated in US currency, less attractive for holders of other currencies as the cost of borrowings for its acquisition and storage grows.

The Fed's Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer on Sunday was also optimistic about the short-term outlook, saying that the 2% inflation target is "at a stone's throw", and economic growth, according to his expectations, will "accelerate" over the next few quarters.

Fisher's comments also led to increased expectations of the Fed Chairman Janet Yellen's speech to be held at the Fed conference in Jackson Hole this week. If J. Yellen gives a hint of the possibility of a rate hike in September, the dollar will strengthen sharply on the currency market.

However, the remaining risk associated with the state of the global economy, as well as lower interest rates in a number of the world's central banks with the prospect of further easing of monetary policies will support the gold price.

HK Kwun 10:52 GMT August 22, 2016
Gold Short Term Idea
Reply   
Buy Gold
Entry: 1336 Target: Stop: 1326

Take a long position on Gold. Its only for short term traders

Mtl JP 10:47 GMT August 22, 2016
Dollar strengthens on Fischer's upbeat comments --reuters.com

so who / what do you trust - Gold ?

GVI Forex Blog 10:29 GMT August 22, 2016
Equitimax - Managed Forex Accounts - FCA REGULATED
Reply   

GlobalViewJuly16.fw   Equitimax Managed Forex Accounts Equitimax - Managed Forex Accounts - FCA REGULATED

GVI Trading Room john bland 09:26 GMT August 22, 2016
Dollar strengthens on Fischer\'s upbeat comments --reuters.com

PAR - I don't trust any of them. It seems their statement are designed to deceive.

PAR 08:55 GMT August 22, 2016
Dollar strengthens on Fischer's upbeat comments --reuters.com

He must have been making just a joke .

GVI Trading Room john bland 08:39 GMT August 22, 2016
Dollar strengthens on Fischer's upbeat comments --reuters.com
Reply   
"The dollar rose on Monday, tracking short-dated U.S. Treasury yields after comments from Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer prompted more bets on a U.S. interest rate hike by the end of this year.

The two-year Treasury yield US2YT=RR rose to a post-Brexit high of 0.7830 percent after Fischer, the Fed's No. 2 policymaker, said he thought the central bank was close to achieving its employment and inflation targets..."

Dollar strengthens on Fischer's upbeat comments --reuters.com

PAR 08:22 GMT August 22, 2016
RISK ON
Reply   
Risk on as rates will stay low and lower forever . Jackson Hole will proclaim the benefits of low and negative interest rates .

GVI Trading Room john bland 08:22 GMT August 22, 2016
Monday Trading

WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:
22-Aug MON
No Major Data
23-Aug TUE
ALL DAY flash PMIs
24-Aug WED
08:00 DE- IFO Survey
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
14:30 US- Crude
25-Aug THU
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:45 US- flash SVC PMI
26-Aug FRI
08:30 GB- GDP
12:30 US- University of Michigan
14:00 US- Yellen at Jackson Hole


Trading Themes --
  • The highlight of the upcoming week is Fed Chair Yellen's address Friday morning at the Kansas City Fed symposium at Jackson Hole, Wyoming. She is slated to speak on the economy and presumably will present a hopeful message. Whether she feels the economy is strong enough now to withstand a modest step towards a normalization of monetary policy remains to be seen.

  • I feel Yellen will be laying the groundwork for one rate hike before yearend, but still will keep all her options open. In the larger scheme of things, it is hard to understand why there has been so much angst about one 25bp hike in the Fed Funds rate when its current target rate is near zero.

  • I have felt all along that the Fed would like to avoid making a monetary policy change this close to national election. Waiting until December would be an easy policy decision to make.

  • The calendar Monday is very light, but it picks up on Tuesday with flash global PMIs and a number of U.S. other releases.

  • John M. Bland, MBA
    co-founder Global-View.com


PAR 08:15 GMT August 22, 2016
FED
Reply   
Fed members have become stand-up comedians who nobody believes anymore . Economies would perform much better without central banks.

PAR 08:01 GMT August 22, 2016
YELLEN
Reply   
On Friday Yellen to confirm no rate hike this year . All other fed members who keep talking up rate hikes will be send in prison . Hyper dove Yellen is the boss and only she decides .

HK [email protected] 03:51 GMT August 22, 2016
SELL GOLD: Olympic Gold Medals Have Almost Zero Gold In Them!
Reply   

1.2% gold Baaaah, phhha!

Can't afford!!!

LINK

HK [email protected] 03:44 GMT August 22, 2016
Germany screwed by Brexit first:(
Reply   

Bitter German car manufacturer blames Brexit vote for causing production cuts.

A GERMAN car manufacturer has blamed the historic Brexit vote for putting the brakes on production and cutting thousands of staff.

The Opel Group, which owns Vauxhall, is slashing staff hours in its factories based in Eisenach and Russelsheim, Germany, as it comes to terms with the EU referendum result.

Brexit was greeted by a fall in the pound, which means any vehicles imported into Britain are now more expensive, giving UK exporters a boost.

Around 5,000 workers will have their hours cut as a result, the number of hours reduced will depend on how heavily the UK car sales market plummets.

The Vauxhall Corsa is Britain’s second most popular car after the Ford Fiesta and the three-door model, which accounts for half of those sales, is made in the Eisenach factory.

The company also manufactures the Insignia model in Germany.
In the run up to the EU Referendum, Opel warned that Brexit would cost the company £305million due to currency moves and weaker demand if there was an economic downturn.

But strong retail sales figures suggest no such economic hardship, with 2.7 million new cars expected to be bought in Britain this year, 70,000 more than in 2015.

LINK

Hong Kong 03:18 GMT August 22, 2016
AceTrader Aug 22: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views USD/JPY
Reply   
22 Aug 2016 02:09GMT

USD/JPY - ...... Although the greenback opened significantly higher to 100.92 in New Zealand today on weekend news of comments from BoJ's Kuroda (see previous MMN), profit-taking offers there capped intra-day gains and price retreated sharply to 100.30 ahead of Asian open.
Dlr pared its losses and staged a recovery to 100.75 at Tokyo open before retreating again.

Since there is no major economic data due today, further choppy trading would be seen.
Bids are now seen at 100.20/30 and more below at 100.00/10 with stops building up below there whilst initial offers are noted at 101.20/30.

HK [email protected] 02:59 GMT August 22, 2016
Gold on chickenlegs to 1330
Reply   
.

HK [email protected] 02:56 GMT August 22, 2016
Gold on chickenlegs


Regarding the COT positions of last week, seems there are a lot of
navy-deck-sweepers who are still Long-gold.

I suspect that 1310 will not S/L sufficient positions.

hk ab 02:28 GMT August 22, 2016
gold
Reply   
my sys also flagging 1310 but afterwards, it would be 1480.....

HK [email protected] 02:19 GMT August 22, 2016
Gold on chickenlegs
Reply   



Coutesy of the US navy:)

dc CB 01:38 GMT August 22, 2016
Monday Trading

"This is all courtesy of some very well-timed comments from the Saudi oil minister," said John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital LLC, a New York hedge fund focused on energy. "They’ve been successful over the last year in jawboning the market, and this is the latest example."

Hedge funds trimmed their short position in WTI by 56,907 futures and options during the week ended Aug. 16, the most in data going back to 2006, according to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Futures rose 8.9 percent to $46.58 a barrel in the report week and closed at $48.52 a barrel on Aug. 19. WTI is up more than 20 percent from its Aug. 2 low, meeting the common definition of a bull market.

"This was a very short market so we were bound to get some covering," said Stephen Schork, president of the Schork Group Inc., a consulting company in Villanova, Pennsylvania. "You probably won’t hear a lot from OPEC with prices up here, but if we get down to where we were a few weeks ago we can expect to hear more."

‘Well-Timed’ OPEC Talk Forces Oil Bears Into Record Reversal

MV yg10 00:45 GMT August 22, 2016
Gold; On chickenlegs to 1332.

It punched 200 ema on 4hr chart what did not happen since July 25.
And the last clean close below this this line was early June. I keep watching it.

dc CB 00:15 GMT August 22, 2016
Monday Trading

Iraq, OPEC’s second-biggest producer, will increase crude exports by about 5% in the next few days: BBG

Also, those "rebels" in Nigeria have called cease fire...so more oil from there.

HK [email protected] 00:08 GMT August 22, 2016
Gold; On chickenlegs to 1332.
Reply   
.

 




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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
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A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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