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Forex Forum Archive for 08/27/2016

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dc CB 22:19 GMT August 27, 2016
The Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Toolkit: Past, Present, and Future

"The FED is in no way Political" Heard at the Hole
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
hahahahahahahahaha

Hey Bawney Frank, of the Dodd Frank....didn't to crap...Bill -(as in YOU PAY...plus tip).
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Keep the faith John at GV
++++++++++++________________________++++

that changed earlier today when, just one day after Janet Yellen's closely watched Jackson Hole speech which may or may not have opened the door to a September rate hike, Barney Frank - one of the architects of the 2010 Dodd-Frank "Wall Street Reform" act - and a staunch supporter of Hillary Clinton, told The Hill it would be a mistake for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates before the election.

It Begins: Barney Frank Tells Yellen Not To Hike Before The Election, "It Risks Destabilizing Markets"

GVI Trading Room john bland 19:00 GMT August 27, 2016
The Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Toolkit: Past, Present, and Future
Reply   
Core of Yellen's Friday Speech

"...Current Economic Situation and Outlook
U.S. economic activity continues to expand, led by solid growth in household spending. But business investment remains soft and subdued foreign demand and the appreciation of the dollar since mid-2014 continue to restrain exports. While economic growth has not been rapid, it has been sufficient to generate further improvement in the labor market. Smoothing through the monthly ups and downs, job gains averaged 190,000 per month over the past three months. Although the unemployment rate has remained fairly steady this year, near 5 percent, broader measures of labor utilization have improved. Inflation has continued to run below the FOMC's objective of 2 percent, reflecting in part the transitory effects of earlier declines in energy and import prices.

Looking ahead, the FOMC expects moderate growth in real gross domestic product (GDP), additional strengthening in the labor market, and inflation rising to 2 percent over the next few years. Based on this economic outlook, the FOMC continues to anticipate that gradual increases in the federal funds rate will be appropriate over time to achieve and sustain employment and inflation near our statutory objectives. Indeed, in light of the continued solid performance of the labor market and our outlook for economic activity and inflation, I believe the case for an increase in the federal funds rate has strengthened in recent months. Of course, our decisions always depend on the degree to which incoming data continues to confirm the Committee's outlook.

And, as ever, the economic outlook is uncertain, and so monetary policy is not on a preset course. Our ability to predict how the federal funds rate will evolve over time is quite limited because monetary policy will need to respond to whatever disturbances may buffet the economy. In addition, the level of short-term interest rates consistent with the dual mandate varies over time in response to shifts in underlying economic conditions that are often evident only in hindsight. For these reasons, the range of reasonably likely outcomes for the federal funds rate is quite wide--a point illustrated by figure 1 in your handout. The line in the center is the median path for the federal funds rate based on the FOMC's Summary of Economic Projections in June.1 The shaded region, which is based on the historical accuracy of private and government forecasters, shows a 70 percent probability that the federal funds rate will be between 0 and 3-1/4 percent at the end of next year and between 0 and 4-1/2 percent at the end of 2018.2 The reason for the wide range is that the economy is frequently buffeted by shocks and thus rarely evolves as predicted. When shocks occur and the economic outlook changes, monetary policy needs to adjust. What we do know, however, is that we want a policy toolkit that will allow us to respond to a wide range of possible conditions..."

The Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy Toolkit: Past, Present, and Future

Livingston nh 15:46 GMT August 27, 2016
Fed Sends Confused Policy Tightening Signals

JP - much of the problem arises because her THEORY says none of this situation is possible so there is general confusion

Some of it stems from the mess Bernanke left behind - Yellen is considering the Ben induced Taper Tantrum and is accordingly "scared" of market reaction but Ben also left the bloated balance sheet MONEY SWAMP, the majority of which consists of Treasurys (aka Currency w/ a Coupon) - IMO this constituted a Tightening of Monetary Policy that persists but Yellen is afraid to release the funds into the market

The Groupthink concept is also a problem, especially for the New World cosmopolitans like Brainard - the Taper Tantrum effect on EM economies and USD strength plays a role here in her reticence // there are things that Groupthink requires so the focus is constantly on irrelevant concepts like Productivity rather than on the POLICY itself to explain the current state of affairs

Keep an eye on developments in the short term money markets -- this could pressure the Fed in Q4 and panic Yellen with a new dynamic

Mtl JP 15:21 GMT August 27, 2016
Fed Sends Confused Policy Tightening Signals

nh why is it so that "Yellen will need to whip up a new excuse", why , really, is she soooooooo adverse to suggest a rate hike let alone actually implement one?

what nightmare in her cabesa is causing her to act as she does ?

Livingston nh 15:03 GMT August 27, 2016
Fed Sends Confused Policy Tightening Signals

By mid-week we will be back to playing August Data Roulette -- consider a 155k NFP w/ a 10k drop in July revision on Friday or, worse, a 225k NFP because then Yellen will need to whip up a new excuse // she's just playing a shell game without a pea

A lot of her speech was a sotto voce defense of the Central Banks' policies over the last five years -- other voices are suggesting that, like leeching, the putative cure killing the patient

Mtl JP 15:03 GMT August 27, 2016
WSJ: Janet Yellen Lays Out Tools for Next Recession Fight
Reply   
Unconventional programs like increasing bond purchases are on the table, but she doesn’t mention negative interest rates.

Janet Yellen Lays Out Tools for Next Recession Fight - wsj

GVI Trading Room john bland 14:58 GMT August 27, 2016
Fed's Yellen sees stronger case for interest rate hike -- Reuters.com
Reply   
"The Federal Reserve is getting closer to raising interest rates again, the head of the U.S. central bankand other policymakers said on Friday in comments that left the door open for a hike as early as next month.

Fed Chair Janet Yellen told a global monetary policy conference that the case for a rate increase had grown stronger, while Fed Vice Chair Stanley Fischer suggested a move could come at the central bank's September policy meeting if the economy was doing well..."

Fed's Yellen sees stronger case for interest rate hike -- Reuters.com

GVI Forex Blog 13:07 GMT August 27, 2016
Fed Sends Confused Policy Tightening Signals
Reply   

John M. Bland, MBA

Fed to Raise Rates
The focus for the last several weeks has been on the speech Friday by Fed Chair Yellen at the Kansas City Fed Symposium at Jackson Hole, Wyo. Over the years, this has become a major event for global central bankers. It was especially significant this year with many feeling the Fed has been falling behind the curve on policy, and that the time has long past for what is in essence an emergency stimulus program at the central bank. Chair Yellen did not disappoint. Yellen said that case for rate hike has strengthened in recent months and that the economy is nearing the Fed's employment and inflation targets...

Fed Sends Confused Policy Tightening Signals

MV yg10 06:34 GMT August 27, 2016
US stox

@Berlin DG
>in plain language, sell CALL 13K DEC/2017
Did you sell it? I see on CBOE site that volume of 130 call today is zero.

BTW the only traded today Dec 2017 call was 140 and price went UP 5.30 (7.14%)

hk ab 00:02 GMT August 27, 2016
Gold

Gold
wallstreet bankster 15:40 GMT 08/26/2016
something goes not as planned , who cares , ab can always say he was out at 1342 , relentless .
---------------------------------------------------------

Your grapes are getting more and more sour.........

 




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