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Forex Forum Archive for 08/28/2016

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Mtl JP 23:46 GMT August 28, 2016
More to come

fwiw sofar HoD in dlryen 102.14

Mtl JP 23:35 GMT August 28, 2016
More to come

BOJ will act 'without hesitation' to revive inflation - Kuroda - rtrs

Lazy officials criticized as China launches inspection to ensure growth on track: Xinhua - rtrs
re Kuroda: net long yen could be setting up for a trimming now that dlr has broken out N of 101.28

Mtl JP 23:07 GMT August 28, 2016
Monday Trading

euro 1.1198gv chartpoits
20 day 1.1211
100 day 1.1218
maintaining euro bear bias
ditto gbp

Livingston nh 22:42 GMT August 28, 2016
More to come

Williams of the SF Fed has suggested a target of 3% for inflation - suppose the Fomc plugged in a 1% inflation rate -- where would that put us ?? // as Williams et al suggests 2% is arbitrary - so if the Goal post can be moved bring it closer

Livingston nh 22:13 GMT August 28, 2016
More to come

This mope is typical of the economics profession today -- he publishes an extrapolation of previous financial crises but only the ones that fit the mold and doesn't take into account the changed circumstances of the current (21st Century) economic realities in different countries

So now its cash that is the root of all EVIL --- vaguely familiar and smacks of Religious True Believers

And why are the plebes so leery of Experts?

GVI Trading Room john bland 20:53 GMT August 28, 2016
Monday Trading


Blue line (inverted) indicates the odds of a Fed rate hike by year end.

Market Sentiment Indicators--
The Fed Funds Market Sentiment Barometer reflects current sentiment about a future change in Fed policy. Odds for one rate hike by yearend are:
+88% from +75% late Thursday.

Spot EURUSD: 1.1198
20-day avg: 1.1211
Pivot Point: 1.1240

GVI Forex Blog 20:07 GMT August 28, 2016
GVI Data Calendar for 29 August 2016

August 28, 2016 ( UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Monday, August 29, 2016.

29-Aug MON
00:00 GB- Holiday
12:30 US- PCE Deflator
30-Aug TUE
14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
31-Aug WED
06:00 DE- Retail Sales
07:55 DE- Employment
12:15 US- ADP Employment
14:00 US- Pending Homes Sales
14:30 US- Weekly Crude
1-Sep THU
All Day Mfg PMIs
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
12:30 US- Employment
12:30 US/CA- Trade

GVI Data Calendar for 29 August 2016

GVI Trading Room john bland 20:02 GMT August 28, 2016
Monday Trading

EURUSD 1.180 -11
USDJPY 113.98 +3
GBPUSD 1.3124 -13
USDCHF .9784 +9

NY AMI 19:04 GMT August 28, 2016
More to come

will there be any gap in opening

Mtl JP 18:23 GMT August 28, 2016
More to come

Paper money fuels corruption, terrorism, tax evasion and illegal immigration—so the U.S. should get rid of the $100 bill and other large notes - according to KENNETH S. ROGOFF, in wsj

The Sinister Side of Cash - Rogoff

dc CB 13:01 GMT August 28, 2016
More to come
DCLeaks, a website that releases information on powerful political figures, has had part of its website taken offline after releasing a cache of documents on billionaire donor George Soros. The @DCLeaks Twitter account has also been suspended from Twitter for reasons unknown.

By mid-Saturday afternoon, the DCLeaks page with the Soros documents was no longer online. The rest of the DCLeaks site was running smoothly — only the Soros pages appeared to be offline.

The @DCLeaks Twitter account was suspended by Twitter around the same time with no explanation.

There's a leak

GVI Trading Room john bland 12:58 GMT August 28, 2016
Monday Trading

29-Aug MON
00:00 GB- Holiday
12:30 US- PCE Deflator
30-Aug TUE
14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
31-Aug WED
06:00 DE- Retail Sales
07:55 DE- Employment
12:15 US- ADP Employment
14:00 US- Pending Homes Sales
14:30 US- Weekly Crude
1-Sep THU
All Day Mfg PMIs
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
12:30 US- Employment
12:30 US/CA- Trade

Trading Themes --
  • So what now? To her credit, Fed Chair Yellen calls the shots. She said Friday "I believe the case for an increase in the federal funds rate has strengthened in recent months. Of course, our decisions always depend on the degree to which incoming data continues to confirm the Committee's outlook..." In other words, the Fed is ready to raise rates as soon as possible.

  • The next policy decision is scheduled for September 21. Between now and then we will see the August employment data (Friday) and, before that (Monday) the Core PCE Deflator. Barring unusual weakness in either, the Fed may want to raise the Fed Funds target range by 25bps at that meeting. Fed Funds futures late Friday placed about 40% odds on a September hike.

  • With good reason, the markets don't trust the verbal signals from the Fed. As an institution, it has lost all credibility with its poorly executed policy "transparency". I would not be surprised in the least if they hike on September 21, but feel certain the current plan is to hike no later than the December 21 meeting. Obviously. unexpected developments could derail that plan. Market odds on one rate hike by the are 80%.

  • Monday is a holiday for London. Many feel now the U.K. economy could flourish once it is out from under the control of Brussels. Furthermore, the sharp GDP decline since Brexit has been an immediate economic stimulus.

  • John M. Bland, MBA

HK [email protected] 11:28 GMT August 28, 2016
This may not help the Euro for now:(

Germany's economy minister says free trade talks between the European Union and the United States have failed - AP

Livingston nh 01:55 GMT August 28, 2016
The Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Toolkit: Past, Present, and Future

John - many years ago we had an exchange about Bernanke's inflation target idea (2005?) and I recall that we agreed it would be unworkable -- I come back to the chart I posted a couple of times over the past 2 years that showed the "preferred inflation" rate has not been consistently above 2% for the past 20 years // And the Fed has a THIRD Mandate - “moderate long-term interest rates” - just my opinion BUT an artificially suppressed 10 yr rate @ 1.55% doesn't meet that criteria

Yellen before she drank the KoolAde
FOMC 01/31/95
GOVERNOR YELLEN. "I am strongly opposed to the adoption of formal multi-year inflation targets. I thought I would begin by outlining the case against them. This proposal has two distinct features. The first has to do with the number of goals we should be pursuing, a single goal or multiple goals. I am taking this proposal to be essentially the strong one that Dave Lindsey suggested in his memo, namely, that the inflation rate should be the sole objective of policy for current and future years with no weight being placed on
achieving competing, ultimate goals for real variables. I am going to speak against that proposal, and I note that it is a somewhat stronger proposal than I heard Al [Broaddus] just support.
The second point concerning credibility is that I do not think inflation targets would raise credibility for the simple reason that they would not be credible. Who would be prepared to believe that the FOMC is single-mindedly going to pursue an inflation target regardless of real economic performance, if not even the Bundesbank is prepared to go that far? So, that means that the targets are going to be perceived as a hoax. They are not going to be any more believable than I would be if I told my child that I was going to cut off his hand if he put it in the candy drawer.

To me, an inflation targeting strategy could easily undermine the Fed's credibility and reputation because the policy itself just is not credible."

BUT here we are -- The Peter Principle


Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan

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