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Forex Forum Archive for 08/29/2016

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Mtl JP 23:23 GMT August 29, 2016
The democratic party has accused Donald Trump of enjoying implicit support from the Kremlin.

[email protected] pray tell what do you think is the purpose of your 23:13 post on this "purpose is to GENERATE TRADING IDEAS website? tia

HK [email protected] 23:13 GMT August 29, 2016
The democratic party has accused Donald Trump of enjoying implicit support from the Kremlin.
Reply   

After the US administration, has created troubles in the Ukraine and creating tension in Europe by moving missiles to the east, will not one wonder if the Russians are in Trump favor.

Probably Trump will diffuse the current tension with Russia, which weapon manufacturers will not be too happy about.

This kind of accusations against the Russians, may add some more paranoia feelings to the mentally distressed population in the US.

Explicit evidence was not yet presented anyway.

dc CB 22:00 GMT August 29, 2016
Welcome to the USA:(

It will not come as a surprise to anyone that in the latest manifestation of McCarthyism, the democratic party has accused Donald Trump of enjoying implicit support from the Kremlin, which has led to the anecdotal narraative that any Russian-sponsored hacks would benefit Trump.

Which is why we find it surprising that the FBI would come out with this story 70 days before the election, because if anything, it would serve as a strawman to "explain" a potential Hillary loss: should the shock outcome take place (a la Brexit), in which all polls were wrong, the media can then pivot to blaming the Kremlin for rigging the vote, perhaps leading to a voiding of the electoral outcome.

Will The Election Be Hacked: FBI Finds "Foreigners" Breached Two State Election Databases

nw kw 21:57 GMT August 29, 2016
Monday Trading

confident about recession
ya right

down gbp,

cant fight fed

world deleveraging

production weeding out week co.

trade and tariffs

immigration shifted

clean air act.

so u see we fell but cant get nocked out?

still cheap eur cow means commodity based




dc CB 21:52 GMT August 29, 2016
Monday Trading

Gulf

thur 1st map forecast

Mtl JP 21:39 GMT August 29, 2016
Monday Trading

CB I am almost addicted to what the crowds are mad(ly in love) about
remember that I prefer gv's chart-points
they are simple/r to integrate into my MT4's trading robot
ps / I like simple/city :-)

dc CB 21:32 GMT August 29, 2016
Monday Trading

JP
why do you pay any attention to what Murdock's organization decides to have 25 yo
Ellie
Ismailidou
Markets reporter

write at the behest of her editors?

about as usefull as waiting for the next FED Mouth and Hope you can beat the algos...and front run that trade.

dc CB 21:27 GMT August 29, 2016
Monday Trading

BP SHUTTING OIL PRODUCTION AT THUNDER HORSE, NA KIKA, ATLANTIS: HESS EVACUATING NONESSENTIAL STAFF FROM FACILITIES IN U.S. GULF: BBG

time for some more OPEC production cap rumors....need those Nigerain Rebals to hit their Twitter Acct and declare "we're back"

Oil to 50 yeah LOL

Mtl JP 21:21 GMT August 29, 2016
Monday Trading

to some alarm bells
to some others trading opps:

..."the most crowded overweight positions include U.K. government bonds TMBMKGB-10Y, +0.00% U.S. stocks SPX, +0.52% emerging market sovereign debt, developed market credit and gold GCZ6, +0.06% At the other end of the spectrum, investors are significantly underweight eurozone equities"...

These crowded trading positions are ringing alarm bells

dc CB 20:55 GMT August 29, 2016
Monday Trading

Stock up for the fun times after Labor Day...

The Manly Drink, Steel yourself for the Sheitstorm

dc CB 20:51 GMT August 29, 2016
Monday Trading

JP

this will prob never go farther than here, certianly not anywhere in the US....but it is an interesting take.

Charles Ortel

GVI Trading Room john bland 20:24 GMT August 29, 2016
Tuesday Trading

1.



Blue line (inverted) indicates the odds of a Fed rate hike by year end.

Market Sentiment Indicators--
The Fed Funds Market Sentiment Barometer reflects current sentiment about a future change in Fed policy. Odds for one rate hike by yearend are:
+83% from +88% late Friday.

Spot EURUSD: 1.1185
20-day avg: 1.1212
Pivot Point: 1.1184



GVI Trading Room john bland 20:21 GMT August 29, 2016
Tuesday Trading
Reply   


30-Aug TUE
14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
31-Aug WED
06:00 DE- Retail Sales
07:55 DE- Employment
12:15 US- ADP Employment
14:00 US- Pending Homes Sales
14:30 US- Weekly Crude
1-Sep THU
All Day Mfg PMIs
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
2-SEP FRI
12:30 US- Employment
12:30 US/CA- Trade


Trading Themes --
  • Equity markets are closing higher as markets are digesting the Fed policy tightening signal from Friday. Some are interpreting the signal as an indication that the economy is improving. U.S. inflation data Monday indicated price pressures should not be a cause for Fed worry.

  • Fed Chair Yellen calls the shots at the Fed. She said Friday "I believe the case for an increase in the federal funds rate has strengthened in recent months. Of course, our decisions always depend on the degree to which incoming data continues to confirm the Committee's outlook..." In other words, the Fed is ready to raise rates as soon as possible.

  • The next policy decision is scheduled for September 21. Before then we will see August employment data. Barring unusual weakness, the Fed may want to raise the Fed Funds target range by 25bps at that meeting. Fed Funds futures place about 32% odds on a September hike.

  • With good reason, markets simply don't trust the unreliable verbal signals from the Fed. As an institution, it has lost all credibility with its poorly executed policy "transparency". I would not be surprised by a September 21 hike, but feel certain the current plan is to hike no later than the December 21 meeting. Market odds on one rate hike by yearend are 83%.

  • Many feel now the U.K. economy could flourish once it is out from under the control of Brussels. Furthermore, the sharp GDP decline since Brexit has been an immediate economic stimulus.

  • John M. Bland, MBA
    co-founder Global-View.com


Mtl JP 20:18 GMT August 29, 2016
Monday Trading

for the record about we are confident about recession:
eurdlr at 1.1187
usdyen at 101.90
gold at 1322

Mtl JP 20:15 GMT August 29, 2016
Monday Trading

.."we (zerohedge?) are confident that whoever made this prediction will be proven correct in under a year."...

sounds like trade idea: that gamma will be not only scaling back her rate hike optimism how-ever guarded but be back with new QE/negarates which she currently denies is even being discussed

dc CB 19:46 GMT August 29, 2016
Monday Trading

or whatever FED dweeb happens to be running his mouth at any particular hour of the day.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

* Sometime after the election, historical data will show that in 2016 the U.S. was in recession.

Dallas Fed Respondent

GVI Forex Blog 19:44 GMT August 29, 2016
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-On
Reply   

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-On

dc CB 19:41 GMT August 29, 2016
Monday Trading

take a peek at Soybeans, Corn, Wheat.

Yes Virginia, there are markets that still respond to Fundamentals, supply and demand, and not just the USD/JPY, Treas Yield, Crude Algo Correlations.

GVI Forex Blog 19:29 GMT August 29, 2016
CHART POINTS: Free Forex Database
Reply   



Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format

CHART POINTS: Free Forex Database

dc CB 16:48 GMT August 29, 2016
Welcome to the USA:(

This is a Test. This is only a Test.

NBC affiliate posts election results for local race that hasn’t happened yet

Livingston nh 16:33 GMT August 29, 2016
Monday Trading

JP - GC MArtin use to refer to milk price for NZD -- the rate cut saw a bounce but NZD/USD hasn't recovered much from Friday's Yellen scare -- a close below the 21 dma w/ the MACD not confirming recent high would seem a good short

Mtl JP 16:14 GMT August 29, 2016
Monday Trading

nh r u trading
usdcad stalling in line with crude price-action just sitting
-
also , and this is exceptional for me, looking at going short nzdusd around 7275 if seen. have a view on this chart ? tia

HK Kwun 15:58 GMT August 29, 2016
Sure win trade

Sell Gold
Entry: 1322 Target: Stop: 1324

seem market act differently again, especially silver is leading gold right now, close at 1324 first, sleep now

PAR 15:55 GMT August 29, 2016
No US rate hike

Unless BMPS collapses , Brexit goes wrong or Draghi cuts rates to -1% and makes QE perpetual ..

Mtl JP 15:49 GMT August 29, 2016
No US rate hike

so... long eurdlr with stop n reverse under 200dma ?

PAR 15:46 GMT August 29, 2016
No US rate hike
Reply   
Bond and stocks rally as market realizes that Yellen is a barking dog and that no interest rate hike is on the horizon .

The US economy is growing at 1.1% in Q2 , maybe a little faster in Q3 . No exactly a booming economy .

US unemployment figures in reality are much higher than the BLS reports . Seasonal adjustments have become a joke .

In the past august unemployment figures usually have been mostly weak.

Feds mantra is : If you cannot convince , confuse .

Mtl JP 15:42 GMT August 29, 2016
Monday Trading

as if the FED, ECB or BoJ are there for nothing (or horror of horrors they get blamed for all the non-performance) according to Roach's opinion

Global Growth – Still Made in China

GVI Forex Blog 15:30 GMT August 29, 2016
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-On
Reply   

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-On

GVI Trading Room john bland 15:21 GMT August 29, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

Atlanta Fed GDP now tracking estimate for 3Q16 GDP 3.50% (annualized) vs 3.40% on August 25.

Source: TTN

HK [email protected] 15:05 GMT August 29, 2016
GBP/JPY
Reply   
Sell GBPJPY
Entry: 1.3350+- Target: 1.3310 Stop: 1.34

.

HK Kwun 15:00 GMT August 29, 2016
Sure win trade

sell because risk on, dow up 100pts, USD rate hike, sell sell sell

HK Kwun 14:59 GMT August 29, 2016
Sure win trade
Reply   
Sell Gold
Entry: 1322 Target: Stop: 1332

Sell now

Mtl JP 14:50 GMT August 29, 2016
Monday Trading

30% odds Janet and gang raise in September
43.6% odds Janet and gang raise in December

CME FedWatch tool

Livingston nh 14:43 GMT August 29, 2016
Monday Trading

JP - agree - JPY and CAD getting interesting again // maybe some US stox turmoil first

Mtl JP 14:40 GMT August 29, 2016
Monday Trading



nh in my current optique usdyen = bod to 102
for break N of 38 FIB

Mtl JP 14:31 GMT August 29, 2016
Monday Trading

crude must be off some judging from usdcad finally above 50dma

Livingston nh 14:31 GMT August 29, 2016
Monday Trading

Bonds, Stox and most currencies post Asia o/n seem to express no fear of an imminent rate hike -- yen as always moving on its own issues

Mtl JP 14:28 GMT August 29, 2016
Monday Trading

nh r u judging from the 0.5% up opening in DJIA ?

Livingston nh 14:16 GMT August 29, 2016
Monday Trading

It appears that the market has rejected September FOMC zombie resurrection -- it appears dead again until Friday

HK [email protected] 13:28 GMT August 29, 2016
Seems the UK Gov. is wobbling about Brexit.
Reply   

Anyone here has an idea, what will happen to the GBP, if Brexit will not push through and cancelled?

GVI Forex Blog 13:22 GMT August 29, 2016
GVI Data Calendar for 30 August 2016
Reply   



August 29, 2016 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Tuesday, August 30, 2016.

  • Far East: JP- Retail Salles
  • Europe: No Major Data
  • North America: US- Case-Shiller, CB Consumer Confidence, API Crude

GVI Data Calendar for 30 August 2016

Livingston nh 13:21 GMT August 29, 2016
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. PCE Deflator Steady

Jp - maybe convict would be better // re Fiscal "help" - the US has increased its deficit well beyond earlier levels (altho it has been declining as tax receipts have increased) but most of the increase has been for "lifestyle maintenance" - other countries are more constrained because of legal or financial impediments -- in general, inflation by fiscal moves (short of war) is not as effective as a "loose" Central Bank that makes MONEY MOVE

Mtl JP 13:13 GMT August 29, 2016
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. PCE Deflator Steady

re convince the FED
you have got to LOVE the lexicon: the FED.... is in-animate image when in fact the FED is a collection of PhDs and self and otherwise proclaimed to-be-respected and revered "experts" who, collectively, makeup the FED.

But for a tiny momentary flash I had misread convince as convict.

Mtl JP 13:05 GMT August 29, 2016
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. PCE Deflator Steady

nh 12:53 do not despair, see JP 00:01
"help" was and is called, matter of time now it arriving
patience

Livingston nh 13:03 GMT August 29, 2016
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. PCE Deflator Steady

John - now if we could just convince the Fed (or maybe Yellen should go back to her Pre KoolAde Opinion of Inflation Target)

GVI Trading Room john bland 12:56 GMT August 29, 2016
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. PCE Deflator Steady

If you can't hit the target, ignore it or change the target.

Livingston nh 12:53 GMT August 29, 2016
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. PCE Deflator Steady

Is there anything to suggest that the FOMC can be reasonably confident that the inflation target will be reached ?? -- Brainard & Co. may want MORE data

GVI Forex Blog 12:39 GMT August 29, 2016
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. PCE Deflator Steady
Reply   
U.S. Core PCE Deflator steady at 1.60%. Fed Targets PCE Deflator.

BREAKING NEWS: U.S. PCE Deflator Steady

Mtl JP 12:35 GMT August 29, 2016
Monday Trading

1.3016
usdcad 50dma 1.3023 may need something more than rate differential to kick uP - like a selloff of crude maybe

GVI Trading Room john bland 12:30 GMT August 29, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:
Reply   
U.S. Personal Income/PCE Deflator July 2016

U.S. Data Charts




ALERT
Personal Income +0.40% vs. +0.30% exp v +0.20% prev.
PCE Defl +1.60% vs. +1.60% exp. vs. +1.60% prev.


RELEASE: Personal Income



TTN: Live News Special Offer

Livingston nh 12:27 GMT August 29, 2016
Monday Trading

In a few minutes we get the FIRST test of the FOMC default position (Data Dependent) following Yellen's speech

so far FI is returning to sobriety -

Mtl JP 12:13 GMT August 29, 2016
Monday Trading

The notes expected oil to be trading around the $55 US mark by the second half of 2016.
-
duh... in the meantime , the socialist NDP govt in Alberta continues on with its merry spending ways. Gov'ts are not the solution; gov'ts are a problem (particularly when they listen to the "experts" like those gathering at Davos, the IFM or current crop of central banker "experts" for more moRE MORE.

Gov'ts make for trading opportunities.

Over the past year, the federal Department of Finance Canada, Natural Resources Canada and the Prime Minister's Office — spanning two governments — have received at least a dozen briefings, some marked confidential or secret, on the health of Alberta's housing market (it's holding on), the direction of oil prices (who knows?), the health of individual energy companies (redacted), the strength of the job market (so-so) and whether pipelines will help (probably

Mtl JP 12:00 GMT August 29, 2016
Monday Trading

Dillian could get filthy rich IF
1) he is correct and
2) he loads up usd and shorts cad$ and
3) uses high leverage
--
on the other side of coin he could get wiped out IF 1) he is incorrect and carries out 2) + 3)

HK [email protected] 11:13 GMT August 29, 2016
Welcome to the USA:(


So many people were then cheating on Tweeter.

Nothing to worry about this miss: Soon another "Welcome to the USA" will pop up:)

nw kw 11:03 GMT August 29, 2016
Monday Trading

There’s trouble brewing in the Great White North

Dillian thinks the Canadian dollar could move to 1.60 to 1.70 to the US dollar (currently trading around 1.30). He believes that shorting the Canadian dollar is “one of the best macro opportunities over the next couple of years


Dillian lives in south and doesn't trade oil?

http://www.msn.com/en-ca/money/topstories/troubles-brewing-in-canada/ar-AAicv3i?li=AAadgLE&ocid=spartandhp

Mtl JP 10:47 GMT August 29, 2016
Monday Trading

stox not liking Yellen's yikyak about strengthening case for raising interest rates; maybe theyb need time to adjust

GVI Trading Room john bland 10:30 GMT August 29, 2016
Monday Trading

DAX -82
DJ -7
SP -1

10-yr 1.616% -1.4bp

PAR 09:11 GMT August 29, 2016
Mylan
Reply   
By accident CEO fortunately sold a part of her shares just before the EpiPen story broke . Just lucky .

GVI Trading Room john bland 09:03 GMT August 29, 2016
Monday Trading


29-Aug MON
00:00 GB- Holiday
12:30 US- PCE Deflator
30-Aug TUE
14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
31-Aug WED
06:00 DE- Retail Sales
07:55 DE- Employment
12:15 US- ADP Employment
14:00 US- Pending Homes Sales
14:30 US- Weekly Crude
1-Sep THU
All Day Mfg PMIs
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
2-SEP FRI
12:30 US- Employment
12:30 US/CA- Trade


Trading Themes --
  • Equity markets are a touch softer as markets digest the prospect of an early Fed policy tightening that could come as early as mid-September, depending on U.S. data between now and then. Today is a holiday for London.

  • So what now? To her credit, Fed Chair Yellen calls the shots. She said Friday "I believe the case for an increase in the federal funds rate has strengthened in recent months. Of course, our decisions always depend on the degree to which incoming data continues to confirm the Committee's outlook..." In other words, the Fed is ready to raise rates as soon as possible.

  • The next policy decision is scheduled for September 21. Between now and then we will see the August employment data (Friday) and, before that (Monday) the Core PCE Deflator. Barring unusual weakness in either, the Fed may want to raise the Fed Funds target range by 25bps at that meeting. Fed Funds futures late Friday placed about 40% odds on a September hike.

  • With good reason, the markets don't trust the verbal signals from the Fed. As an institution, it has lost all credibility with its poorly executed policy "transparency". I would not be surprised in the least if they hike on September 21, but feel certain the current plan is to hike no later than the December 21 meeting. Obviously. unexpected developments could derail that plan. Market odds on one rate hike by the are 80%.

  • Many feel now the U.K. economy could flourish once it is out from under the control of Brussels. Furthermore, the sharp GDP decline since Brexit has been an immediate economic stimulus.

  • John M. Bland, MBA
    co-founder Global-View.com


GVI Forex Blog 08:52 GMT August 29, 2016
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Markets
Reply   

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Markets

London 07:57 GMT August 29, 2016
Visit us for 14 days free trial on our signals system
Reply   
Buy GBPJPY
Entry: 133.815 Target: Stop:

New signal from pur 160% profit from our verify system by Myfxbook.


Posted with permission of global-view.com

Forex Signals

HK [email protected] 04:29 GMT August 29, 2016
Brexit may send EU 'down the drain' - German vice chancellor
Reply   

Germany's vice-chancellor has warned the future of the EU could be in doubt if the UK's exit is handled badly.

Sigmar Gabriel said the EU would go "down the drain" if other states followed Britain's lead and that the UK could not keep the "nice things" about Europe while taking no responsibility.

It comes as Theresa May summoned ministers for a meeting on Wednesday to discuss ideas for the UK's withdrawal.

Downing Street said Brexit was "top" of the prime minister's agenda.

But a report in The Sunday Times suggested her cabinet was split over leaving the single market.




The UK voted to leave the European Union in a referendum vote on 23 June.

Mr Gabriel, who is also economy minister in Germany's governing coalition and Chancellor Angela Merkel's deputy, told a news conference that as a result, the world now regarded Europe as an unstable continent.

MORE

HK [email protected] 04:22 GMT August 29, 2016
Welcome to the USA:(

Source;

https://www.rt.com/usa/357497-lax-shooting-police-evacuation/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS

HK [email protected] 04:21 GMT August 29, 2016
Welcome to the USA:(
Reply   

‘Active shooter,’ police deployed, mass evacuation at LAX Airport – reports

Social media posts from Los Angeles International Airport are describing shots fired and police rushing to the scene, while footage shows people apparently being evacuated.

Multiple calls are coming in for terminals 1, 5, and 7. The Los Angeles Police Department (LAPD) says there are people possibly barricaded in bathrooms in terminal 6, Culvercity311 reported on Twitter.

A report from LA County Scanner's Twitter account said the shooting is taking place at terminal 8.

Another report said the shooting took place in a food area inside Terminal 8, and that people are barricading themselves inside a cafe.

Police have reportedly arrived in “big response” to terminal 8. Confusion and chaos are being reported at the terminals.

Police have reportedly arrived in “big response” to terminal 8. Confusion and choas are being reported at the terminals.

Mtl JP 02:42 GMT August 29, 2016
Monday Trading

usdcad 1.3008
50 day 1.3023 Res
100 day 1.2928 Sup
-
keeping robot to trade it from the long side only

Mtl JP 02:26 GMT August 29, 2016
More to come

nh 00:06 re differentials and dlr effect: I am eyeballing cad and aud for that.

With respect to the so-called safe-havens I keep an eye on the yen, gold and to a smaller degree (I dont watch a chart, just set the robot for speed and price level alert) on the CHF just in case some catalyst incentivises players to make a run for exit(s)

Livingston nh 00:10 GMT August 29, 2016
More to come

JP - make the market come to you raise interest rates and stir velocity and thereby CREATE new spendable cash so folks DON'T hoard (an unnatural economic/financial situation)

Livingston nh 00:06 GMT August 29, 2016
More to come

Asia should tell us a lot about whether markets really believe September has RISEN to life -- if rate differentials are any measure of currency values we should see some USD strength

Mtl JP 00:01 GMT August 29, 2016
More to come

Livingston nh - asks john in his 12:58: So what now?

from the link below: "One of the central worries is that households and businesses have become so cautious and set in their outlooks - expecting little growth and little inflation - that they do not respond in expected ways to the efforts central banks have made. That has included flooding the financial system with cash, and voicing a steady commitment to their inflation targets in an effort to make people believe they will be met."

Princeton University economist Christopher Sims' recommendation is further evidence that the current crop of policymaking economists is not giving up their erroneous ways and that their solution continues to be moRE MORE !

Global central bankers, stuck at zero, unite in plea for help from governments - By Howard Schneider, rtrs

 




Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

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