USA ZEUS 23:58 GMT September 6, 2016
AUD/USD
Short AUD/USD with much larger size at .7687
Happy Day!
GVI Trading Room john bland 20:10 GMT September 6, 2016
Wednesday Trading
Blue line (inverted) indicates the odds of a Fed rate hike by year end.
Market Sentiment Indicators--
The Fed Funds Market Sentiment Barometer reflects current sentiment about a future change in Fed policy. Odds for one rate hike by yearend are:
+51% from +69% late Friday.
Spot EURUSD: 1.1247
20-day avg: 1.1226
Pivot Point: 1.1220
GVI Trading Room john bland 20:02 GMT September 6, 2016
Wednesday Trading
Reply
WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:
7-SEP Wednesday
00:30 AU- GDP
14:00 CA- BOC Decision
8-SEP Thursday
11:45 EZ- ECB Decision
12:30 US- US- Weekly Jobless
15:00 US- Crude
9-SEP Friday
01:30 CN- CPI
08:30 GB- Trade
12:30 CA- Employment
Trading Themes --
- North American markets returned Tuesday after their Monday holidays. Many were setting up for the Fed meeting in two weeks (September 21). Fed Funds futures early had placed the odds at one in five for a rate hike.
- The U.S ISM Services PMI significantly missed expectations and further reduced the odds for a September 21 hike. Late in the day, odds on a rate hike had fallen to a scant 14% from 20% earlier. Furthermore, odds on ONE rate hike by yearend were down to a coin-toss after trading as high as 80% after Yellen's Jackson Hole speech.
- Late last week, August U.S. Non-farm Payrolls grew by only 151K, while revisions to the June and July data turned out to be a wash. The street had been expecting a gain of 180K in the month, but importantly, average hourly earning increased a scant 0.12% in the month and hours worked declined.
- It might be wiser now for the central bank to wait for more data before raising rates. The last thing they should do now is compound their many blunders by trying to save face.
John M. Bland, MBA
co-founder Global-View.com
Mtl JP 18:26 GMT September 6, 2016
Market is very generous to GBP shorts. Slow price rise for the time.
SFH 18:01 re fundamentals - sometimes fundamentals work in a reverse fashion - like now - the gbp going up only because the dlr is going down.
it is the feature of rates being relative.
so even if gbp is not moving on its own, it is doing so on a relative basis because the dollar is doing the moving (down)
USA ZEUS 17:58 GMT September 6, 2016
AUD/USD
Short AUD/USD added at .7682
Cheers!
LONDON SFH 17:24 GMT September 6, 2016
Market is very generous to GBP shorts. Slow price rise for the time.
ok FM - thanks for that-I agree- I just am getting a bit nervous that many in the press are starting to talk stg up-on a very small correction when little has actually changed...of course the bears who were looking for a straight line down to 1.15 sh are worried-if they put their money behind it-1.40? Perhaps....then sell I guess
HK [email protected] 17:08 GMT September 6, 2016
Market is very generous to GBP shorts. Slow price rise for the time.
LONDON SFH 16:30
I suspect cable still have room to the upper side.
Target for longer term 1.40 about.
Shorter term 1.3600 within days
The UK Gov. is blowing too much hot air about a potential success deals with others out of the EU, but for the time nothing in the hand; Totally unprepared.
So if the EU will offer some deal to the UK about the immigration issue, they will jump on it, so the one who will be short at that time may have a big problem.
USA ZEUS 16:49 GMT September 6, 2016
AUD/USD
Reply
Short AUD/USD at .7678 for a nice swing lower.
Cheers!
LONDON SFH 16:30 GMT September 6, 2016
Market is very generous to GBP shorts. Slow price rise for the time.
RF- Yes you are right about that-I have traded intraday short cable for a while and have done alright until today...still short but although cable still firm and looking like it will stay that way for rest of session think it will kick in to the downside...
Bali Sja 16:29 GMT September 6, 2016
sell usdcad?
Laser point accuracy...cheers
bali sja 04:36 GMT September 6, 2016
sell usdcad?: Reply
looks heavy for 1.2820-30? unless sudden U turn by some trigger to save it from the abyss
GVI Forex Blog 16:14 GMT September 6, 2016
GVI Data Calendar for 6 September 2016
Reply
September 6, 2016 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Wednesday, September 7, 2016.
- Far East: AU- GDP
- Europe: DE/GB- Industrial Output
- North America: CA- BOC, Ivey PMI, US- JOLTS, Beige Book, API
WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:
7-SEP Wednesday
00:30 AU- GDP
14:00 CA- BOC Decision
8-SEP Thursday
11:45 EZ- ECB Decision
12:30 US- US- Weekly Jobless
15:00 US- Crude
9-SEP Friday
01:30 CN- CPI
08:30 GB- Trade
12:30 CA- Employment
GVI Data Calendar for 6 September 2016
Mtl JP 15:44 GMT September 6, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:
numbnuts mario probably contemplating what to say about his QE program. originally was scheduled to die in sept 2016 it appears to have topped a trillion euros in govt paper and recently suffered the embarrassment of folks not wanting to let go of their govvy paper in exchange for his euros.
Mtl JP 15:27 GMT September 6, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:
players are already or will soon start to make odds on
gv calendar's
08/09/16 11:45 A EZ Europe Cntl Bank 0.05% 0.05%
tokyo joyya 15:16 GMT September 6, 2016
long gbp!
Mtl JP 15:08 GMT 09/06/2016
yes next if clear 1.346/8 area then 200/500 pips up 1.4 area....
Mtl JP 15:08 GMT September 6, 2016
long gbp!
joyya the breakout was around 1.3350
now 1.3470-ish = res
fukuoka joyya 15:05 GMT September 6, 2016
long gbp!
Reply
Buy GBPUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:
hello to all,look like breakout coming......
Livingston nh 15:02 GMT September 6, 2016
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. ISM Service PMI Misses
Like the May report ISM confirms NFP - it is likely that Friday's NFP will be revised lower because the seasonal was too optimistic (compensation for previous years' misses)
The FED ignored manuf ISM below 50 in Dec but declines in both for AUG
Mtl JP 15:01 GMT September 6, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:
So what ls the Fed going to do now?
A: when you cant hit the target adjust the goal post.
GVI Trading Room john bland 14:56 GMT September 6, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:
10-yr 1.556% -5.2bp vs. 1.609% early.
So what ls the Fed going to do now?
Earlier today (supposedly another Yellen favored index).
(US) Aug Labor Market Conditions Index Change: -0.7 v +1.0 prior - Source TradeTheNews.com
Mtl JP 14:51 GMT September 6, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:
be nice to see some future tense verbs about 1.1253
PAR 14:50 GMT September 6, 2016
Crude
Reply
A US recession would be another negative for crude oil prices .
GVI Trading Room john bland 14:50 GMT September 6, 2016
Slowing Economy Could Put Fed On Ice
Reply
REPEAT
John M. Bland, MBA
Disappointing Jobs
Once again the markets have been sent mixed signals by economic data. The August increase in jobs was a disappointing +151K following an average gain after revisions of 273K in the previous two months. Furthermore, Average Hourly Earnings gained by a scant 0.12% in the month vs. expectations for 0.20%. So the data missed on several counts. These data were not supportive of speculation about a September 21 increase in the Fed Funds rate.
Something else the Fed has to consider is whether the sharp decline in the August U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI was an aberration or a sign that the economy is about to slip into recession. The past three readings have been falling steadily 53.2, 52.6 and then 49.4. A reading below "50" means an economic contraction. I like the manufacturing PMIs because they tend to be more sensitive to changes in economies. Service sector PMIs tend to less sensitive to changes in the business cycle.
Slowing Economy Could Put Fed On Ice
GVI Trading Room john bland 14:47 GMT September 6, 2016
Tuesday Trading
10-yr 1.556% -5.2bp vs. 1.609% early.
GVI Trading Room john bland 14:42 GMT September 6, 2016
Tuesday Trading
Seeing EURUSD short-covering. COT report Friday had the market still short.
dc CB 14:35 GMT September 6, 2016
Tuesday Trading
Oil Freeze "headlines" hitting the wires.
IRAN IS NOW "CLOSER TO THE IDEA" OF FREEZING OIL PRODUCTION THAN IT WAS WHEN OPEC MINISTERS LAST MET IN JUNE: RTRS
IRAN PRESIDENT TO SUPPORT MEASURES FOR OIL PRICE RECOVERY: IRNA
PAR 14:34 GMT September 6, 2016
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. ISM Service PMI Misses
Lower interest rates for longer will be bad for US financial stocks . In Europe we are starting to see massive layoffs at banks and insurance companies thanks to the ECB NIRP .
ECB NIRP also to blame for the resurgence of far right parties in Europe . ECB NIRP is the Box of Pandora with incredible unforeseen consequences .
nw kw 14:26 GMT September 6, 2016
Tuesday Trading
eur bund range top side cfd breakout faster market / ecb risk
GVI Trading Room Jay Meisler 14:24 GMT September 6, 2016
Tuesday Trading
Another ISM surprise that will take a Sept rate hike risk off the table and market has responded accordingly.
USDJPY is through 102.80 = post-NFP low
EURUSD is back above 1.12 (which now sets the tone) but still below its post-NFP 1.1252 high. It blasted through Amazing Trader stops (we are great at pointing these out) at 1.1169 and 1.1182, the latter is the key to keeping the bid.
GBPUSD trading around 1.34 (next Amazing Trader target 1.3480) if it stays above 1.3375-80) but reverting to a lag after leading earlier.
Amazing Trader levels have been updated with current risks and targets.
Mtl JP 14:23 GMT September 6, 2016
Tuesday Trading
sofar dlr is off about 0.5% against the eur and 1% against the yen
stocks behaving unusually for a change on bad news
PAR 14:22 GMT September 6, 2016
RISK OFF
Only action which can save this stock market is last hour PPT INTERVENTION .
PAR 14:20 GMT September 6, 2016
RISK OFF
Too much bad news becomes really bad news . Even the labor markets seems to be slowing down .
Mtl JP 14:12 GMT September 6, 2016
RISK OFF
so what is the call PAR: SnP uP on bad news is good news for stocks which like prospect of cheap n accessible money ?
Tallinn viies 14:11 GMT September 6, 2016
eurusd
Reply
worth to try small euro short at 1,1210. stop at 1,1260. 5 pips above last week high.
PAR 14:07 GMT September 6, 2016
RISK OFF
Yellen = Bernanke = Always wrong economic forecasts
PAR 14:06 GMT September 6, 2016
RISK OFF
Reply
Service sector is biggest part of US economy independent of foreign economic activity . This bad figure brings the USA closer to a recession .
Mtl JP 14:05 GMT September 6, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:
lets see if eurdlr will try something with its range's 1.1250-ish topside
tia for guesses
GVI Trading Room john bland 14:01 GMT September 6, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:
Big miss in ISM Service PMI
GVI Trading Room Jay Meisler 13:51 GMT September 6, 2016
Tuesday Trading
Tug-of-war day out of GBP crosses
EURGBP .8350 is the battle line with layers of support starting at .8344 to .8210 (.8344/.8297/.8254) to show the current risk if .8350 gets firmly broken.
Mtl JP 13:20 GMT September 6, 2016
SFH - maybe a cruel joke.
the secret lies in being ready and prepared (both mentally and physically) for losing money, the single biggest root of trading stresses
fwiw: keep trades small
keep targets smaller than expectations
forget about reeling in the whale
forget dream peddlers a la Equitimax
LONDON SFH 13:05 GMT September 6, 2016
Mtl JP 12:41 GMT 09/06/2016 -
It's a joke isn't it?
Mtl JP 13:03 GMT September 6, 2016
Tuesday Trading
gbpusd seems to struggle with 1.3350, making multiple top now
Mtl JP 12:41 GMT September 6, 2016
Equitimax Reviews - Trading
Blog 12:22 - this particular section
"If you are a nervous or conservative thinker you may well choke the life out of trading by concentrating what is at risk rather than what is available, you may miss many setups because it just was not right and the glass is half empty type of approach here, could stop you entering a series of well thought out trades."
disregards one absolute: that one's funds, unless one is a central bank with legislated ability to print money to replenish any losses, are limited and that therefore fretting about risk is a must.
I wont even touch "Returns can be higher with more risk applied."
GVI Trading Room john bland 12:39 GMT September 6, 2016
Tuesday Trading
DAX +41
DJ +17
SP +2
10-yr 1.594% -1.4bp
Markets setting up for Fed decision in two weeks time. ISM Service PMI due in just over an hour. This is a slow week for data.
Mtl JP 12:20 GMT September 6, 2016
Tuesday Trading
gbpusd 1.3354
Pivot 1.3325 = current s/t bias uP
I suspect 1.3390-ish should be tuff to break North
Mtl JP 12:04 GMT September 6, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:
Fed gang member Williams yaks today
Livingston nh 11:57 GMT September 6, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:
JP - thanx -- seems all the currency devaluates are waiting for the Fed to bail them out
Mtl JP 11:50 GMT September 6, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:
Livingston nh - prepare for gv calendar's tomorrow event :
A CA BOC Rates 0.50% 0.50%
every economist surveyed expects no change from Poloz and his gang
-
Odds of:
rate rise: 0.00
staying pat:0.99
rate cut: 0.01
--
Bottom Line
tiny room for a surprise, usdcad BoD
GVI Trading Room john bland 08:53 GMT September 6, 2016
Tuesday Trading
Reply
6-SEP Tuesday
04:30 AU- RBA Decision
09:00 EZ- GDP
13:45 US- Final SVC PMI
14:00 US- ISM PMI
7-SEP Wednesday
00:30 AU- GDP
14:00 CA- BOC Decision
8-SEP Thursday
11:45 EZ- ECB Decision
12:30 US- US- Weekly Jobless
15:00 US- Crude
9-SEP Friday
01:30 CN- CPI
08:30 GB- Trade
12:30 CA- Employment
Trading Themes --
- North American markets return today after Monday holidays, which marked for some the unofficial end of summer. The focus now is on how markets are setting up for the Fed meeting in just over two weeks time (September 21). Opinions are split on the chances on a Fed rate hike at that meeting. Fed Funds futures put the odds at about one in five for a rate hike.
- Today sees the ISM Services PMI from the U.S. It is seen roughly flat at a solid 55.5 (consensus 55.3), after the ISM Manufacturing PMI fell into contraction in August. These data could influence the upcoming Fed policy decision.
- Swiss CPI improved, but remains in contraction.
- August U.S. Non-farm Payrolls grew by only 151K in the month, while revisions to the June and July data turned out to be a wash. The street had been expecting a gain of 180K in the month, but importantly, average hourly earning increased a scant 0.12% in the month and hours worked declined.
- There was no smoking gun in the report that should force a rate hike on September 21. In fact this report, taken with the contraction in the ISM Manufacturing PMI should be a cause for caution at the Fed. It would be wiser for the central bank to wait for more data before raising rates. The last thing they should do now is compound their many blunders by trying to save face.
John M. Bland, MBA
co-founder Global-View.com
PAR 08:07 GMT September 6, 2016
RISK OFF
Reply
Valuations are becoming too high for economies growing soo slowly . US non performing car loans the canary in the coal mine .
GVI Trading Room john bland 08:02 GMT September 6, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:
Swiss August 2016
--EARLIER DATA NEWS--
mm: -0.10% vs. -0.10% exp. vs. -0.40% prev.
yy: -0.10% vs. -0.10% exp. vs. -0.20% prev.
TTN: Live News Special Offer
EARLIER: Swiss CPI (y/y) Deflation persists
PAR 07:54 GMT September 6, 2016
BREXIT
Reply
If you postpone the decisions long enough Brexit will never hâppen . That seems to be May s strategy .
HK Kwun 07:09 GMT September 6, 2016
Sure Win Trade
Buy Gold
Entry: 1325 Target: Stop: 1315
closed all at 1329, nice!
PAR 06:43 GMT September 6, 2016
G20
Reply
Major outcome of G20 is higher crude prices . Good for the world economy ?
bali sja 04:36 GMT September 6, 2016
sell usdcad?
Reply
looks heavy for 1.2820-30? unless sudden U turn by some trigger to save it from the abyss
nw kw 04:32 GMT September 6, 2016
Volatility and Markets
While the BOJ is likely to keep the size of its total monthly bond buying plan at 8 to 12 trillion yen ($116 billion), the central bank may adjust the breakdown of the purchases so as to allow a moderate increase in super-long bond yields, according to Goldman’s Baba. The comprehensive review of policy may precede the BOJ gradually placing more emphasis on interest rates instead of quantitative easing, he said.
usa lumber dropping us30y 6week rang to drop/
https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/kuroda-seen-plotting-return-yield-150001594.html
Mtl JP 02:03 GMT September 6, 2016
The Genius of Trump
non political expert in economy do not exist
Hong Kong 01:48 GMT September 6, 2016
AceTrader Sept 6: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views EUR/USD
Reply
06 Sep 2016 01:18GMT
EUR/USD - ....... Euro traded narrowly in subdued North American session on Monday. Although intra-day selloff in dlr/yen led to a brief moment of broad-based usd's weakness at European open and lifted euro to intra-day high of 1.1182, renewed selling then emerged n price later fell steadily to session low of 1.1140 in N. American morning before moving narrowly.
The fact that euro is trading near Monday's low suggests market is eager to pressure price towards last week's low at 1.1123 and stops are reported below 1.1120 and more below 1.1100.
Offers are noted at 1.1160/70 and more above with stop above 1.1185. So selling euro on recovery is the way to go.
A slew of eco. data will be release during European morning starting off with German industrial orders and then EZ revived GDP.
dc CB 00:33 GMT September 6, 2016
The Genius of Trump
Trump couldn't do anything about the FED...they are Private and owned by the Banks.
The only thing he could do is force Yellen out/not re-up her term and then lead the charge to eliminate the FED totally, using the power of the DOJ (part of the Executive Branch) to investigate the workings of the FED, to embarrass the FED and force Congress to vote to End the Fed.
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