GVI Forex Blog 22:03 GMT September 9, 2016
Fed And ECB Policies Intertwined
Reply
John M. Bland, MBA
ECB Disappoints
It is not often that the policy decision of the ECB every six weeks or so impacts global financial markets, but such was the case on Thursday September 8. With the Eurozone economy growing slowly, many were expecting the central bank to do more to stimulate growth. Since it is increasingly being accepted that negative interest rates do not provide the stimulus that in theory economists felt they would, no reduction (more negative) cut in interest rates was expected. Many had been hoping that the ECB would take technical steps to facilitate additional Quantitative Ease (QE). A growing view is that the ECB is stuck on hold until the Fed begins to adjust its monetary policies. The ECB could be caught out by an unexpected Fed move, so they are on hold...
Fed And ECB Policies Intertwined
SaaR KaL 19:36 GMT September 9, 2016
Cable Longs into next week
Reply
Planing to long it lower then 1.3140
Target Higher then 1.50
GBPJPY Longs from near 130
target 164
Over the next 4-5 weeks
Livingston nh 19:27 GMT September 9, 2016
STOXic
SPX Chart failed at 3 PM but is trying again to rally -- see how long this lasts
EM ASIA looks the worse (NK) - YUAN weakening
dc CB 19:23 GMT September 9, 2016
STOXic
GWE ..say a prayer that nobody decides to "celebrate" this Sunday.
Livingston nh 18:35 GMT September 9, 2016
STOXic
Are the markets warning the FED? Will the FED fold? (c,mon we were only kidding)
Withdrawal is painful for Enablers as well as Junkies?
___
STOX are really bad on no one thing but somebody is very scared - RUT getting hit the hardest is never a good sign (mkt internals are worse than Brexit)
london red 18:25 GMT September 9, 2016
STOXic
s&p prev high 2135
dc CB 17:52 GMT September 9, 2016
STOXic
with all these ETFs down today...those stocks in them are going to have to be sold.
Bali Sja 16:47 GMT September 9, 2016
AUD/USD
Well done guys. Party time. Closed all my audusd and cable short. Huge gain.
I hope what did not make sense to Provo John now makes sense. Crystal ball they say ;)
bali sja 07:16 GMT September 8, 2016
AUD/USD: Reply
sell sell sell audusd, follow Zeus
first in that 0.77-0.78 zone, 0.7715
bali sja 06:28 GMT September 8, 2016
AUD/USD: Reply
for audusd 0.77-0.78 is sell zone
bali sja 06:25 GMT September 8, 2016
AUD/USD: Reply
lets go guys, buy usd big time, will join you with audusd short also
i was in cable short already
bali sja 04:53 GMT September 8,
GVI Trading Room john bland 16:25 GMT September 9, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:
Atlanta Fed 3Q16 GDP forecast 3.30% vs 3.50% on September 2
-- TTN
GVI Forex Blog 16:22 GMT September 9, 2016
GVI Data Calendar for 12 September 2016
Reply
September 8, 2016 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Friday, September 9, 2016.
- Far East: No Major Data
- Europe: No Major Data
- North America: US- 3yr and 10-yr Auctions
WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:
12-SEP Monday
No major Data
13-SEP Tuesday
08:30 GB- CPI
09:00 DE- ZEW Survey
14-SEP Wednesday
08:30 GB- Employment
14:30 US- Weekly Crude
15-SEP Thursday
00:00 CN- Holiday
00:30 AU- Employment
07:30 CH- SNB Decision
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
09:00 EZ- Final HICP
11:00 GB- BOE Decision
12:30 US- PPI
12:30 US- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Current Account
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
12:30 US- Philly Fed
13:15 US- Industrial Production
16-SEP Friday
00:00 CN- Holiday
12:30 US- CPI
14:00 US- University of Michigan Survey
GVI Data Calendar for 12 September 2016
Livingston nh 15:16 GMT September 9, 2016
STOXic
Brainard better have two speeches ready for Monday - the "September Live" and "The Dow Down 300"
dc CB 14:39 GMT September 9, 2016
Not the Onion
Warren Buffet owns this Bank.
____________________________-
Wells Fargo & Co. was slapped with a $185 million fine Thursday for “widespread illegal” sales practices that included opening as many as two million deposit and credit-card accounts without customers’ knowledge, federal and local authorities said.
Wells Fargo neither admitted nor denied the allegations but agreed to pay the fine and submit to a consent order to settle civil claims
In a release, the bank said the agreement was reached “consistent with our commitment to customers and in the interest of putting this matter behind us.”
Wells Fargo to Pay $185 Million Fine Over Account Openings
GVI Trading Room Jay Meisler 14:29 GMT September 9, 2016
Friday Trading
Have to watch bond yields and they shrugged off Tarullo after a brief dip .
Amazing Trader resistance at 1.1235 untouched vs, 1.1232 high for a nice r/r trade.
Contact Us for access to the Amazing Trader.
Mtl JP 14:27 GMT September 9, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:
john r u expecting a silver platter delivery ? surprised u r not calling for abolishing the FED lol
if not happy , ignore and switch to ... say gv chartpoints - a wonderful matrix of better consistency of trade-able numbers.
dc CB 14:21 GMT September 9, 2016
Not the Onion
My Pension My Pension.....is shouted into Truillo's earpiece
nw kw 14:20 GMT September 9, 2016
Not the Onion
nw kw 12:06 GMT September 8, 2016
eur: Reply
starting this week gov.s are going to help the banks that's in jpy, and aud as for bund big change.
nw kw 11:54 GMT September 8, 2016
eur: Reply
cfd bund 165.1 was at 168.47?
nw kw 14:26 GMT September 6, 2016
Tuesday Trading: Reply
eur bund range top side cfd breakout faster market / ecb risk
jp- its just gibberish so disregard////////////
GVI Trading Room john bland 14:20 GMT September 9, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:
These jokers are NOT sending signals to the market. They are just expressing personal opinions. Fed has a ridiculous communications policy. It has to be changed to a consistent message.
Mtl JP 14:18 GMT September 9, 2016
CAD
Livingston nh with a bit of your help we should see 1.3250/1.33
keep that trendline close
GVI Trading Room john bland 14:14 GMT September 9, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:
Tarullo sounding dovish EURUSD improving asa result. Worried that momentum is slowing.
dc CB 14:13 GMT September 9, 2016
Not the Onion
Reply
Actual Financial Headline. Nor is it a typo.
Japanese, German Bond Yields Surge To 0%
Livingston nh 14:13 GMT September 9, 2016
CAD
Reply
JP - very timely trendline call on CAD -- only mvag line above is 144EMA
GVI Trading Room john bland 14:12 GMT September 9, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:
Tarullo (dove)
-- Policy decisions need to be forward looking
-- economic improvements appear to be flattening out
GVI Trading Room john bland 14:12 GMT September 9, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:
Tarullo (dove)
-- Policy decisions need to be forward looking
-- economic improvements appear to be flattening out
GVI Trading Room Jay Meisler 14:07 GMT September 9, 2016
Friday Trading
EURUSD 1.12 trades so mission accomplished. Note how JPY crosses reversed on risk off with offsets hitting currencies such as the EUR and GBP.
Amazing Trader nailed this dead on.
Contact Us for access to the Amazing Trader.
Mtl JP 13:51 GMT September 9, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:
what is really beautiful in the sordid world of money whores is the "relative" notion: for one thing to go uP (or DOwn) it has to do so against something else on a relative basis.
This means there is always an opportunity for a trade - a beautiful thing.
Just do not be "patriotic" about some one particular asset.
Livingston nh 13:48 GMT September 9, 2016
STOXic
Reply
a/d line 8 to 1 neg -gaps below
Mtl JP 13:47 GMT September 9, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:
CB 13:42 buy Gold with euros
or yens
dc CB 13:42 GMT September 9, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:
Another thought on this. Gold and Silver were off to the races.
tokyo ginko 13:40 GMT September 9, 2016
AUD/USD
thanks for the ride Zeus, i am happy here, close aud @ 7561
GVI Trading Room john bland 13:39 GMT September 9, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:
10-yr 1.6610 +6.9 bp
Worry about the Fed driving yields higher. and stocks down. Its all about Fedspeak ahead of Sept 21 meeting. Recall they all have to shut up by next Tuesday (Sept 13).
Higher yields a weight on EURUSD.
Mtl JP 13:38 GMT September 9, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:
what is interesting today is that both stokx and eurdlr are down
Mtl JP 13:36 GMT September 9, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:
raining parade of FED gang members:
after Kaplan -> dove Tarullo goes live on CNBC at top of the hour
Mtl JP 13:30 GMT September 9, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:
good post, reminder there are two sides to the market even if Cbankers would like to think differently
swiss frank 13:22 GMT September 9, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:
Or unloading....
GVI Trading Room john bland 13:18 GMT September 9, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:
The yield curve is no longer market driven. Its all about central banks loading up on government paper.
GVI Trading Room john bland 13:13 GMT September 9, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:
Keep in mind one role of the Fed is to boost confidence up. Just saying you have to distinguish between cheerleading and forecasts.
GVI Trading Room john bland 13:10 GMT September 9, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:
Rosengren
-- Odds of a recession "quite low"
-- yield curve no longer as reliable an indicator as it once was
Mtl JP 13:06 GMT September 9, 2016
Friday Trading
maybe ... maybe what might help is if cnbc started to argue over Livingston nh 23:40 post (ya that is a hint, :-)
Mtl JP 13:01 GMT September 9, 2016
Friday Trading
phew... thank u boyz n gilz
deeper mates , please
Mtl JP 13:00 GMT September 9, 2016
Friday Trading
c'mon lets see that gv chartpoint at 20ma
dc CB 12:53 GMT September 9, 2016
Friday Trading
maybe it's because Mario pulled a Fisher yesterday...as yields worldwide started to rise when he failed to offer MOAR.
Does the ECB have a stable of Mouths to send out to explain what Draggi "really meant was"
Mtl JP 12:51 GMT September 9, 2016
Friday Trading
john for market not to change sentiment is good for if Livingston nh 23:40 should materialize the reaction should be that much more massive
GVI Trading Room john bland 12:49 GMT September 9, 2016
Friday Trading
Pre Sept 21 Fed blackout period
Sept. 13-22
"Federal Reserve policy limits the extent to which FOMC participants and staff can speak publicly or grant interviews during Federal Reserve blackout periods, which begin the Tuesday of the week preceding a Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and end the Thursday following a meeting."
-- St. Louis Fed
dc CB 12:48 GMT September 9, 2016
Friday Trading
also Crude traders who bought that "largest draw sine 1999" ...
Pit Opens at nine. Weekend may support, but next week without a huricaine in the Atlantic....Then the following week the Oct contract goes off the boards so there will be a roll.
PS Aside from trading....Sunday is the 15th Anniversary of 9/11 ---Sept 11, 2001.
Livingston nh 12:48 GMT September 9, 2016
Friday Trading
CB - Gundlach warning ??
______
There's 635 bio of over 10 yr paper at the Fed -- feed it into the mkt and stretch the curve
GVI Trading Room john bland 12:46 GMT September 9, 2016
Friday Trading
Post Fed comments, odds on Sept 21 rate hike are 24% from 18% late Thursday. Its a long uphill push for the Fed to change market sentiment.
Mtl JP 12:45 GMT September 9, 2016
Friday Trading
what is MIA is gbpusd under 1.3280
Mtl JP 12:42 GMT September 9, 2016
Friday Trading
nh .. my invitation to join the Trade Off The Cretins Corner to make posi-use stands.
-
dlrcad support line = wonderful so far
dc CB 12:41 GMT September 9, 2016
Friday Trading
yield on 10 broke out above the entire summers range
Livingston nh 12:38 GMT September 9, 2016
Friday Trading
Some of this is probably related to the Treasury auction changes -- 2 yr (Fed sensitive) is not back to pre ISM lvl
Fed yakkers playing the shell game again for the market to get "balance" as rubes think "this time"
Mtl JP 12:36 GMT September 9, 2016
Friday Trading
CB 12:32 thks for the good news
Mtl JP 12:35 GMT September 9, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:
strong report ... weaker cad
1.2995 kitching and trail
dc CB 12:32 GMT September 9, 2016
Friday Trading
amazing bloodbath in treasuries continue for a second day.
it started less than 24 hirs ago....10:30 et.
GVI Trading Room john bland 12:31 GMT September 9, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:
full time jobs +52.2K
part time -26.0
Strong report
london red 12:26 GMT September 9, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:
they need to raise so they can cut. i and many said this years ago. almost always any fed hike has been 100% priced in a wk before meet. we aren't there yet. penny may drop monday. or not.
loonie straddle less than a fig. initial sup/res.
GVI Trading Room Jay Meisler 12:25 GMT September 9, 2016
Attention UK Traders
If you are in the UK, please contact me by EMAIL
I am not selling or soliciting, just need a small favor. TIA
Livingston nh 12:25 GMT September 9, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:
Interesting that Rosengren has little to say about inflation "too low"
Mtl JP 12:25 GMT September 9, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:
FED gang member Kaplan - he does not vote - will yak in an hour
GVI Trading Room john bland 12:24 GMT September 9, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:
Fed leaning against the wind? You never know when these jokers are sending a signal.
hk ab 12:24 GMT September 9, 2016
dlr/jpy
Reply
will double up if 103.60 seen.
london red 12:24 GMT September 9, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:
2 yards at 11250 likely to limit downside til cut
hk ab 12:24 GMT September 9, 2016
dlr/jpy
Reply
sold dlr/jpy 103.
Mtl JP 12:23 GMT September 9, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:
not nuff to bust the 20ma
GVI Trading Room john bland 12:22 GMT September 9, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:
Market reacting to Rosengren. EURUSD lower.
GVI Trading Room john bland 12:21 GMT September 9, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:
Rosengren (former dove now moderate)
-- Gradual rate increase appropriate
-- economy resilient despite oversea drag
-- 80-100K jobs increase sufficient keeps unemployment rate steady
-- waiting too long to hike could lead to more pronounced slowdown later
hk ab 12:19 GMT September 9, 2016
xau/eur
Reply
hk ab 16:13 GMT September 8, 2016
gold: Reply
Bingo, stops eaten.
Now, relentless long under 1190 for XAU/eur.'
=================================
Has everyone on board? We are travelling north and not coming back under 1200 anymore.....
Where's the clowfakhoury?
Mtl JP 12:14 GMT September 9, 2016
Friday Trading
voting dove Rosengren about to yak
dc CB 11:48 GMT September 9, 2016
Friday Trading
US-Bound VLCCs Increase in Hermine’s Wake, 29 VLCCs bound for U.S., most in 3 weeks: BBG
GVI Trading Room Jay Meisler 11:42 GMT September 9, 2016
Attention UK Traders
Reply
If you are in the UK, please contact me by EMAIL
I am not selling or soliciting, just need a small favor. TIA
london red 11:26 GMT September 9, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:
mkt waiting for brainard on monday, the last pre fed. thinking is if normally dovish brainard turns turns more hawkish, rates could go up. but if dovish then any dollar move shud unwind. so dont think we break any big ranges but dollar shud be supported until brainard.
Mtl JP 11:15 GMT September 9, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:
red tks !
I am also somewhat guided by:
eurdlr Pivot 1.1272
20day 1.1235
50 day 1.1142
200 day 1.1136
SaaR KaL 11:15 GMT September 9, 2016
day levels
EURJPY suggest you short it here
london red 11:13 GMT September 9, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:
euro. plenty of lrg expiries today between 112-113 so mkt oscilating within a tight range with a downside slant. mkt shud make its way towards 11194-11235 band and test sup there before a rebound.
PAR 11:04 GMT September 9, 2016
North Korea
USDJPY may fly to 105.00 .
Mtl JP 10:35 GMT September 9, 2016
Friday Trading
dlrcad above 1.2950
day is young
PAR 09:56 GMT September 9, 2016
North Korea
Obama: North Korea Nuclear Test Demands 'Serious Consequences'
LONDON SFH 09:31 GMT September 9, 2016
GERMANY
They haven't had a current acct deficit in 15yrs or so so I don't htink they will be using this as their major problem in attacking Draghi's policies
Mtl JP 09:28 GMT September 9, 2016
GERMANY
everyone favours weak ccy
usdcad = BoD
add long on 1.2950 breach North
PAR 09:28 GMT September 9, 2016
North Korea
Reply
These North Korean missile launches are adding up to something very troubling
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/these-north-korean-missile-launches-are-adding-up-to-something-very-troubling/2016/09/08/eae2c50a-743d-11e6-9781-49e591781754_story.html
PAR 09:23 GMT September 9, 2016
GERMANY
Reply
Germany hitting back at Draghi . Big German trade surplus due to weak EURO caused by ECB NIRP .
GVI Trading Room john bland 08:58 GMT September 9, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:
SFH- good point. For those who don't know what the "j-curve" is, it relates to the initial impact in the terms of trade on an exchange rate move before competitive effects kick in (6 mos or so).
LONDON SFH 08:47 GMT September 9, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:
J curve effect on the trade balance....doesnt signal any increase in demand at all
GVI Trading Room john bland 08:39 GMT September 9, 2016
Friday Trading
WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:
9-SEP Friday
01:30 CN- CPI
08:30 GB- Trade
12:30 CA- Employment
Trading Themes--
- The U.S. economic calendar will be light again Friday. Markets continue to absorb the recent poor run of U.S. data. The economic calendar picks up next week. The latest disappointment was the poor August ISM Service PMI on Tuesday. That release saw the key EURUSD relationship establish back above the 1.1200 line.
- Word Chinese forex reserves have reached their lowest level since 2012 has been raising eyebrows in recent days. Large scale intervention and management of its reserve basket can have significant impacts elsewhere.
- The less dovish than expected ECB policy decision Thursday has driven fixed income yields broadly higher in major markets. Some feel the ECB is on hold because it is waiting for the Fed decision. The ECB does not want to be caught out by a Fed surprise.
- The ECB disappointed many Thursday when it took no additional easing steps. In response, the EUR gained across the board but could not hold onto those gains. Nevertheless, the tone of Draghi's comments about the Eurozone economy had a gloomy tone.
John M. Bland, MBA
co-founder Global-View.com
GVI Trading Room john bland 08:34 GMT September 9, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:
Uk trade performance (after revisions) weaker. Might reflect an increase in demand.
GVI Trading Room john bland 08:31 GMT September 9, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:
BREAKING NEWS: UK Trade August 2016
U.K. Charts
-- NEWS ALERT --
Total: -11.8 vs. -11.8 exp. vs. -12.4 (r -12.9) prev.
Non-EU: -4.2 vs. -3.6 exp. vs. -4.2 (r -4.7) prev
TTN: Live News Special Offer
SaaR KaL 08:24 GMT September 9, 2016
day levels
GBPNZD Shorts
1.8163
1.8149
1.8144
TGT < 1.7750
SaaR KaL 08:21 GMT September 9, 2016
day levels
GBPAUD Shorts
1.7632
1.7628
1.7611
1.7585
1.7590
TGT 0.7150
SaaR KaL 08:15 GMT September 9, 2016
day levels
EURJPY shorts till 115.64 tgt < 112
GBPJPY shorts till 138.00
tgt <130
SaaR KaL 07:53 GMT September 9, 2016
day levels
Gold longs
from 1326 to 1320
tgt 1360
SaaR KaL 07:49 GMT September 9, 2016
day levels
Reply
EURUSD tops today near 1.1304...tgt < 1.1160
Cable 1.3343...TGT < 1.30
USDJPY tops near 103.54 tgt <100
GBPCHF
1.2936 1.2902
1.3095 1.2757
SaaR KaL 07:21 GMT September 9, 2016
AUD/USD
AUDUSD Very likely 67 level
Longer term
Mtl JP 06:22 GMT September 9, 2016
Friday Trading
nh 23:40 if that were to indeed happen u d get anointed Grand FED Whisperer Wizard
SaaR KaL 05:18 GMT September 9, 2016
Common stocks
Reply
TSLA
221.1397 215.9524
232.9407 196.1196
FB
126.2876 124.7764
130.5205 123.4155
NDX
4,765.1623 4,738.9335
4,924.8523 4,534.7803
AAPL
103.1393 102.0726
111.6937 95.7985
Googl
781.6499 773.1077
829.8939 753.0028
AZO
789.9595 780.5451
801.7114 721.4279
DJI
18,573.8076 18,469.4074
18,864.4057 18,040.6825
SaaR KaL 05:12 GMT September 9, 2016
AUD/USD
Nice numbers.. :)
0.7665 0.7591
0.7737 0.7512
USA ZEUS 04:59 GMT September 9, 2016
AUD/USD
Looking for AUD/USD to test .75 and will look to cover shorts in that zone.
Happy Day!
SaaR KaL 04:53 GMT September 9, 2016
gold
Gold
1,362.2113 1,346.0187
1,388.3386 1,318.0603
SaaR KaL 04:46 GMT September 9, 2016
avg and extreme values
Reply
EURUSD
1.1254 1.1184
1.1367 1.1079
Cable
1.3307 1.3144
1.3423 1.2676
EURJPY
113.6445 112.3276
115.8720 110.9132
USDJPY
101.0355 99.7979
103.3500 98.7850
hk ab 02:36 GMT September 9, 2016
gold
Reply
after stripping off the free-rider, gold can fly again........
Hong Kong 02:20 GMT September 9, 2016
AceTrader Sept 8: Dollar fell at Tokyo open as news of a nuclear test by North Korea
Reply
09 Sep 2016 01:45GMT
USD/JPY - ..... Reuters reported Japan's Nikkei share average turned negative in mid-morning trade on Friday, erasing earlier gains after sentiment was soured by news of an artificial earthquake in North Korea seen as a possible nuclear test.
The Nikkei fell 0.3 percent to 16,917.22 as of 0058 GMT, after rising to as high as 17,029.78 earlier.
The U.S. Geological Survey reported a 5.3-magnitude seismic event in North Korea on Friday, near a nuclear test site in the northeastern part of the county.
Dlr fell at Tokyo open as news of a nuclear test by N. Korea stoked geopolitical fear and triggered broad-based yen-buying on risk aversion.
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has instructed the relevant ministries to collect and analyse information regarding North Korea, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga told a news conference.
A seismic event in North Korea on Friday morning measured by the U.S. Geological Survey with a magnitude of 5.3 appeared to be a nuclear test, South Korea's meteorological agency said earlier.
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