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Forex Forum Archive for 09/12/2016

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Brisbane Flip 23:47 GMT September 12, 2016
Not the Onion

"I have peneumonia and so has my wife" haha

dc CB 21:35 GMT September 12, 2016
Not the Onion

Breaking News: many many Democrats are sick.

WASHINGTON (AP) — The No. 3 Senate Democrat is disclosing that he was diagnosed with pneumonia.

Senator Chuck Schumer was diagnosed several weeks ago. His disclosure Monday comes amid furor over Hillary Clinton’s own pneumonia diagnosis.

In response to questions from The Associated Press, Schumer spokesman Matt House says in a statement that Schumer was diagnosed with pneumonia and took antibiotics per doctor’s order, and also kept a lighter schedule. House says, “His doctor has pronounced him all cleared up and he’s feeling much better.”
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Pneumonia Bug That Struck Hillary Clinton Also Seriously Sickened Several Members of Her Staff

At the end of August, two weeks before Clinton was diagnosed with pneumonia, a debilitating bug was making the rounds among staff at her headquarters and campaign aides who travel with Clinton, a source tells PEOPLE.

At least half a dozen senior staff were felled, including campaign manager Robby Mook. Two top advisers even needed emergency medical treatment, the source says. One top adviser diagnosed at a Brooklyn urgent-care center with a respiratory infection was being treated with antibiotics in the days before Clinton's diagnosis. Another top adviser was taken by ambulance to the ER by ambulance after collapsing from what turned out to be severe dehydration, the source said


People Mag Breaks the Story

dc CB 21:08 GMT September 12, 2016
Not the Onion

Chart of the Day via ZH

Pres Odds

Mtl JP 21:03 GMT September 12, 2016
Not the Onion

dc CB 20:48 I hope you are not jealous

dc CB 21:01 GMT September 12, 2016
Not the Onion

One way or another the Dems and the Repub need to drag Hillary across the finish line, with her declared as winner on Nov 9.

After that it dosen't matter, if she can't make it to the Inaug, Kaine will take her place as Pres. and they'll work out another VP.

This will keep the Establishment in power.

dc CB 20:53 GMT September 12, 2016
Monday Trading

Gary Gensler will be the Treas Secy under Clinton.

dc CB 20:48 GMT September 12, 2016
Not the Onion
Reply   
There was a burst of righteous populist anger anger last week, when it emerged that Wells Fargo had engaged in pervasive, "massive" fraud since at least 2011, including opening credit cards secretly without a customer’s consent, creating fake email accounts to sign up customers for online banking services, and forcing customers to accumulate late fees on accounts they never even knew they had. For this criminal conduct, Wells was fined $185 million

As "punishment" Wells Fargo told CNN that it had fired 5,300 employees related to the shady behavior over the last few years

What Wells did not disclose publicly to anyone is that the head of the group responsible for Wells' biggest consumer fraud scandal in years, is quietly leaving the bank with a $125 million bonus, a bonus which as Fortune's Stephen Gandel writes today will not see even one cent clawed back as part of the dramatic revelations.

$125 Million Bonus

GVI Trading Room john bland 20:16 GMT September 12, 2016
Tuesday Trading
Reply   


WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:
13-SEP Tuesday
08:30 GB- CPI
09:00 DE- ZEW Survey
14-SEP Wednesday
08:30 GB- Employment
14:30 US- Weekly Crude
15-SEP Thursday
00:00 CN- Holiday
00:30 AU- Employment
07:30 CH- SNB Decision
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
09:00 EZ- Final HICP
11:00 GB- BOE Decision
12:30 US- PPI
12:30 US- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Current Account
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
12:30 US- Philly Fed
13:15 US- Industrial Production
16-SEP Friday
00:00 CN- Holiday
12:30 US- CPI
14:00 US- University of Michigan Survey


Trading Themes--
  • The economic calendar starts to pick up Tuesday with the German ZEW Survey and UK CPI data due. There will ba a lot to focus on in the rest of the week, including central bank decisions by Swiss National Bank and the Bank of England. Thursday sees a slew of data from the U.S. and abroad to include the latest U.S. Retail Sales data.

  • Fed Governor Brainard was dovish in her comments Monday. She was the last Fed official to comment ahead of the quiet period heading into the Fed policy decusion in just over one week's time. Many had been hoping for a definitive view today, but she just added to the uncertainty.

  • Concern that the Fed could be ready to lead central banks into a period of "policy normalization" had seen equity prices falling and bond yields rising to start the new week. Predictions about the timing and magnitude of moves to less accomodative policies is something that the Fed will have to start to manage.

  • Markets got unsettled Thursday by the non-decision decision by the ECB last Thursday. The best explanation I have heard about the ECB is that President Draghi was keeping policy on hold until he saw what the Fed was going to do on September 21. Furthermore, Fed speakers sent hawkish signals early on Friday. It is long past due for the U.S. central bank to get its act together and send consistent messages to the markets or just keep quiet.

  • As for the Fed, Fed Funds futures odds for a September 21 rate hike closed the day at 12% after they closed last week at 20%. The chances for one rate hike by the end of the year are only 59%, despite Chair Yellen's signal at Jackson Hole that it is time for a rate increase.

  • John M. Bland, MBA
    co-founder Global-View.com


    CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-On

Mtl JP 20:04 GMT September 12, 2016
Monday Trading

to consider Brainard as Treasury Secretary and as a trade for the USD clinton will have first to make it into the w/house, she a hillary's girl if I am not mistaken
-
I am leaning to usdyen to low 101.2x; keeping an eye on the 20day ma

Livingston nh 20:03 GMT September 12, 2016
Monday Trading

JP - "moral suasion" is Janet's vote -- she might have more effect if Brainard got to visit Nome as Fed representative in January for the Chamber of Commerce breakfast induction of New Officers and Fargo for Valentine's Day and the end of month audit reviews for some local banks

Mtl JP 19:48 GMT September 12, 2016
Monday Trading

doesn't janet's "vote" outweigh all other votes combined ?
what about diamon's executive memo (JP 18:34) ?

GVI 19:47 GMT September 12, 2016
Fed looks unlikely to hike next week after Brainard warning -- Reuters.com
Reply   
"The Federal Reserve should avoid removing support for the U.S. economy too quickly, Fed Governor Lael Brainard said on Monday in comments that solidified the view the central bank would leave interest rates unchanged next week.

Brainard said she wanted to see a stronger trend in U.S. consumer spending and evidence of rising inflation before the Fed raises rates, and that the United States still looked vulnerable to economic weakness abroad.

"Today's new normal counsels prudence in the removal of policy accommodation," Brainard, one of six permanent voters on the Fed's rate-setting committee, told the Chicago Council on Global Affairs...."

Fed looks unlikely to hike next week after Brainard warning -- Reuters.com

Livingston nh 19:46 GMT September 12, 2016
Monday Trading

JP - you correctly tipped Bernanke as Fed Head - as a trade for the USD consider Brainard as Treasury Secretary -- Cable to 2.50 and yen to 50, eh

GVI Forex Blog 19:41 GMT September 12, 2016
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-On
Reply   

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-On

Livingston nh 19:31 GMT September 12, 2016
Monday Trading

JP - Members vote - so opinion counts // thus, if Members are HAWKS rates will rise more often than be cut - but today ONE Dove trumps 3 Chicken Hawks

GVI Forex Blog 19:30 GMT September 12, 2016
CHART POINTS: Free Forex Database
Reply   



Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format

CHART POINTS: Free Forex Database

Mtl JP 19:14 GMT September 12, 2016
Monday Trading

nh replay 4 me plz again why does it matter if someone is a FOMC voter or not - i.e what is the tradeable part of that attribute ? tia

Livingston nh 19:05 GMT September 12, 2016
JAW JAW

JM - you got a rally (not a bounce) on the Wings of a Dove -- even bond yields have dropped

SaaR KaL 19:02 GMT September 12, 2016
Trades that do not seem possible

Gold shorts from
1,363 to 1390
tgt for < 1200

SaaR KaL 18:54 GMT September 12, 2016
Trades that do not seem possible

Will Short GBPJPY as long as it is 132.5
EURJPY the same if above 113.5

Mtl JP 18:36 GMT September 12, 2016
Monday Trading

SFH 18:34 gold says lael has chicken brain

Mtl JP 18:34 GMT September 12, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

‘Let’s just raise rates,’ says J.P. Morgan Chase head

Jamie Dimon says Fed should just hike rates already

LONDON SFH 18:34 GMT September 12, 2016
Monday Trading

jp-with respect -what does gold say?

Mtl JP 18:32 GMT September 12, 2016
Monday Trading



what janet thinks of players

Mtl JP 18:31 GMT September 12, 2016
Monday Trading



Gold says all you need to know what players think about what the yakkers try to communicate about prospect of rate hike

LONDON SFH 18:30 GMT September 12, 2016
Monday Trading

JP-I take it you would rather be stuck with Yelllen as a bedfellow in every sense!

PAR 18:27 GMT September 12, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

Brainard QE and low rates need more time . 8 years of surrealistic low interest rates and QE did nothing for the US economy . It just made Wallstreet ,Silicon Valley and ex FED officials who joined hedge funds SUPERRICH .

Mtl JP 18:26 GMT September 12, 2016
Monday Trading

SFH 17:49 when it comes to a woman's opinion about rate hike , between lael and janet I think janet's carries more weight

SaaR KaL 17:50 GMT September 12, 2016
Trades that do not seem possible

NZDUSD a brief correction
0.7464 0.7357 still a sell into .66 area into the week

LONDON SFH 17:49 GMT September 12, 2016
Monday Trading

Mtl JP 17:20 GMT 09/12/2016

I would rather be stuck on a dessert island with her rather than Yellen!

SaaR KaL 17:45 GMT September 12, 2016
Trades that do not seem possible

Bearish USDCAD next 2 days
(Correction)
will buy below 1.2880 only for 1.37 into friday
I think USDCAD will make a show this week
Over all the Eurusd coming bearish from 1.1250 into 1.09 area is just a correction
EURUSD is generally a buy into 1.15+
Next 4 weeks

Livingston nh 17:43 GMT September 12, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

John - it appears that the Good Ship SS FED is rudderless, w/o navigational charts and a crew that has been into the RUM

SaaR KaL 17:39 GMT September 12, 2016
Trades that do not seem possible
Reply   
I am bearish Cable
+ EURCAD EURAUD
for next 2 days'
Also GBPJPY
Bearish AUDUSD With spikes over .7650
+ EURUSD Bearish into the week to near 1.09
from 1.1250 area

GVI Trading Room john bland 17:38 GMT September 12, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

Kashkari sounding dovish

LONDON SFH 17:30 GMT September 12, 2016
Monday Trading

great two way action on dow...

Mtl JP 17:20 GMT September 12, 2016
Monday Trading

the harvard PhD sounds like a scared chicken

GVI Trading Room john bland 17:20 GMT September 12, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

Brainard dovish.

GVI Trading Room john bland 17:19 GMT September 12, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:
Reply   
Fed Brainard
-- urges continued prudence in removing accommodation

Livingston nh 17:15 GMT September 12, 2016
Monday Trading

I think
2.77 was b to c on 3 yr // 2.35 was 10 yr b to c

GVI Trading Room john bland 17:04 GMT September 12, 2016
Monday Trading

10-yr 1.699%
bid to cover 2.77 vs 2.98

weak

SaaR KaL 17:01 GMT September 12, 2016
Oil Near Entry to short
Reply   
TGT <36.6 next week
48 area would be nice

SaaR KaL 16:56 GMT September 12, 2016
GBP/USD looks like 1.3632 major Res. will reached up to month end.

I am buying < 1.31
tgt > 1.3700

Livingston nh 16:55 GMT September 12, 2016
STOX
Reply   
ON SPX 15 min chart this level capped Friday afternoon rally attempts -- it's at the 40 ma resistance

Paris ib 16:37 GMT September 12, 2016
The Narrative... the unravelling
Reply   
I don't think anyone knows where all this is going (though I could make a pretty good guess)..... but we do know where the unravelling started.

USD implications? Bearish. Treasury implications? Bearish.

The Murky Story

Mtl JP 16:12 GMT September 12, 2016
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Markets

a Ph.D. in economics ... from Harvard University no less
lets see

LONDON SFH 16:10 GMT September 12, 2016
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Markets

Thanks nh

Livingston nh 16:09 GMT September 12, 2016
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Markets

SFH - 1:15 LINK you can read it here when she starts

Mtl JP 16:07 GMT September 12, 2016
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Markets



some say 17:00 others 17:15gmt
have a drink in the meantime

LONDON SFH 16:03 GMT September 12, 2016
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Markets

Brainard talking in one hour?

hk ab 15:52 GMT September 12, 2016
rake hike in Sep

Kwun, you can only grab those few bucks profit and lose a factory trade.

dc CB 15:47 GMT September 12, 2016
Monday Trading

Mtl JP 14:49
Failure to Delivers. aka Default, by the borrower, who used the Note as collateral and now can't come with it when it's due.


HK Kwun 15:44 GMT September 12, 2016
rake hike in Sep

Sell Gold
Entry: 1329 Target: Stop: 1339

TP at 1323, bye, stupid, we all remember your 1337 fake long without stop

Mtl JP 15:39 GMT September 12, 2016
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Markets

ruffly 23 pip range today so far

LONDON SFH 15:33 GMT September 12, 2016
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Markets

Decent amt of supply to take down in the US FI today....think they can easily decouple for today at least

GVI Trading Room john bland 15:30 GMT September 12, 2016
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Markets

As you can see below, equity markets have improved since the U.S open. As a result, the downward pressure on fixed income prices has eased.

GVI Forex Blog 15:25 GMT September 12, 2016
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Markets
Reply   

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Markets

Mtl JP 15:04 GMT September 12, 2016
Monday Trading

1.1214 been tested now 3rd time, just shy of the 100 day 1.1209

Mtl JP 14:49 GMT September 12, 2016
Monday Trading

dc CB re "If and when shortages extend well beyond the settlement date, that is when it will be time for Yellen to panic."
in what form(at) could a yellen panic be expected to manifest itself ?

SaaR KaL 14:48 GMT September 12, 2016
Cable will short one more day
Reply   
around 1.3365 tgt 1.3000

dc CB 14:41 GMT September 12, 2016
Monday Trading

Stone McCarthy reports this morning, the 10-year note is trading at -270 basis points this morning, after trading at -270 basis points at the end of last week. Though issues often trade special, there is a limit to how low they can trade. Or rather, there should be.

10 Year Repo "Failing" Again

GVI Forex Blog 14:31 GMT September 12, 2016
GVI Data Calendar for 12 September 2016
Reply   

September 12, 2016 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Tuesday, September 13, 2016.

  • Far East: No Major Data
  • Europe: GB= CPI, DE- ZEW Survey
  • North America: US- 30-yr Auctions, API Crude

WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:
13-SEP Tuesday
08:30 GB- CPI
09:00 DE- ZEW Survey
14-SEP Wednesday
08:30 GB- Employment
14:30 US- Weekly Crude
15-SEP Thursday
00:00 CN- Holiday
00:30 AU- Employment
07:30 CH- SNB Decision
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
09:00 EZ- Final HICP
11:00 GB- BOE Decision
12:30 US- PPI
12:30 US- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Current Account
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
12:30 US- Philly Fed
13:15 US- Industrial Production
16-SEP Friday
00:00 CN- Holiday
12:30 US- CPI
14:00 US- University of Michigan Survey

GVI Data Calendar for 12 September 2016

Mtl JP 14:29 GMT September 12, 2016
Monday Trading

"taper tantrum" = still btfd

TRUMP: Janet Yellen should be ‘ashamed’ of what she’s doing to the country

Mtl JP 14:21 GMT September 12, 2016
Monday Trading

oh dang... Both the S&P 500 index SPX, +0.27% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.17% plunged below their 50-day moving averages, precipitated by a rout in equities and government bonds, like the 10-year Treasury note TMUBMUSD10Y, +0.47% on intensifying fears that the Federal Reserve could finally pull the trigger on raising rates after a nearly 10-month hiatus.

The stock-market rout just drove the S&P 500, Dow below a key level

hk ab 14:20 GMT September 12, 2016
gold
Reply   
That's it? Then, Kwun may need to eat bullets again at 1339......

Mtl JP 14:04 GMT September 12, 2016
Monday Trading



nh gap on my chart (e-mini)
-
I like 10-yr yield uP and market odds of a yellen hike this year
keeping eurdle down bias sofar

hk ab 13:56 GMT September 12, 2016
gold
Reply   
Kwun, your short is not good enough to make gold dip to my next adding level 1320.......4th armada

5th parking at 1310.....

Livingston nh 13:55 GMT September 12, 2016
Monday Trading

JP - GAP @ 2100 spx

dc CB 13:55 GMT September 12, 2016
Monday Trading

When combining the new health concerns with all of the other "plumes of smoke" surrounding Hillary including questions over the Clinton Foundation, lost emails, Benghazi, etc, Fleischer thinks "politically [this] is a deadly combination."

Meanwhile the liberal machine is mounting a defense in the only way it knows how, by labeling anyone who might question Hillary's health as a sexist.

Trump is subtly forcing the health issue by vowing to release the results of a detailed medical physical conducted last week.

911 and the Lost American Culture by globalintelhub - Sep 11, 2016 10:38 PM 911 was the paradigm game changer of our century. WeeKeND AT 9-11 by williambanzai7 - Sep 11, 2016 1:36 PM A BANZAI7 EXCLUSIVE Hillary Faces A "Political Crisis"

Livingston nh 13:54 GMT September 12, 2016
Monday Trading

IMO it is the general uncertainty about the election -- known (Clinton) vs different (Trump) - age of both, cross party issues -- this is gonna be "interesting"

LONDON SFH 13:54 GMT September 12, 2016
Monday Trading

Mtl JP 13:43 GMT 09/12/2016

Lying affect Wall Street? Since when??

Mtl JP 13:51 GMT September 12, 2016
Monday Trading

SnP 500 needs to hold 2120

Mtl JP 13:43 GMT September 12, 2016
Monday Trading

do u think clinton's lies and health r now an nega-issue for wallstreet ?

Livingston nh 13:38 GMT September 12, 2016
Monday Trading

STOX internals on Friday were as bad as I've seen them - more than the Fed was at work - a combination of worries from different sectors and players pushed everybody to the door at once // any bounce will meet sellers

Mtl JP 13:30 GMT September 12, 2016
Monday Trading

gv chartpoint: 100 day 1.1209
I like it

GVI Trading Room john bland 13:28 GMT September 12, 2016
Monday Trading

If the September 21 FOMC is the focus, odds on a rate hike, basis October (clean month) futures, are now 18%. These odds are very low. Brainard speaks after the European close.

September 12 Speech - Governor Lael Brainard
The Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy Implications
At the Chicago Council on Global Affairs: Global Economic Series, Chicago, Illinois 1:15 p.m. ET


We will see if these odds change afterwards. We are currently experiencing a minor "taper tantrum".

Livingston nh 13:20 GMT September 12, 2016
Monday Trading

JM - a bounce maybe but then a rethink since she is out of sync w/ the Troika who want a "live" meeting

Mtl JP 13:18 GMT September 12, 2016
Monday Trading

nh hope u r getting rich off the cad$ s-line *-^

Mtl JP 13:17 GMT September 12, 2016
Monday Trading



voting dove brainard is scheduled for 1700gmt or 1 pm ET
some say 17:15 if it matters

NY JM 13:13 GMT September 12, 2016
JAW JAW

nh, if she is dovish do equities have a relief rally?

Livingston nh 13:10 GMT September 12, 2016
JAW JAW

Brainard may be staking out her own position like she did last year - she is an internationalist and leader of PCE inflation worriers - she would have to do a complete 180 turnaround on her inflation statements over the past year

Seems likely that she will caution FOMC against any moves w/o confirming "DATA"

GVI Trading Room Jay Meisler 12:46 GMT September 12, 2016
Monday Trading

1.


EUR soft vs. GBP and JPy but up vs commodity currencies, and vs. this time last week remains up vs. USD

Stocks off lows as suggested but how they close is more important

Amazing Trader had a good run to downside earlier but now not chasing moves within the range.

dc CB 12:39 GMT September 12, 2016
Breaking News

KASHKARI SAYS POLITICS DOESN'T FACTOR INTO FOMC POLICY.

Kashkari: "I don't have a Bloomberg terminal on my desk"

dc CB 12:38 GMT September 12, 2016
Monday Trading

Wall Street money has too much in the tank to let the market crash and really kill Hillary's chances.

GVI Trading Room john bland 12:21 GMT September 12, 2016
Breaking News

Kashkari
-- Does not like to comment on s-t policy
-- Watches PCE deflator and it has not been improving

GVI Trading Room john bland 12:13 GMT September 12, 2016
Breaking News

Lockhart
-- Economy chugging along
-- circumstances warrant serious discussion of September hike
-- two hikes possible this year

GVI Trading Room john bland 12:03 GMT September 12, 2016
Monday Trading

DAX -193
DJ -91
SP-7

10-yr 1.684% +1.2

Livingston nh 11:42 GMT September 12, 2016
JAW JAW
Reply   
So shall we trade today on FED Words and empty promises -
OR will markets finally dismiss the talk -
"Sing me no song! Read me no rhyme!
Don't waste my time, Show me!
Don't talk of Soon, Don't talk of Fall!
Don't talk at all! Show me!"
_________
The auctions should speak louder of market expectations - FX is hostage to Rates

hk ab 11:24 GMT September 12, 2016
gold
Reply   
Kwun, don't worry, grab your little xxx and run....

HK [email protected] 11:24 GMT September 12, 2016
First step to communism. Do it yourself at home:)
Reply   

Duterte says he wants U.S. special forces out of southern Philippines

Duterte says he wants U.S. special forces out of southern Philippines

London AzaForex 10:51 GMT September 12, 2016
Day trading strategies on GOLD 12-09-2016 by AzaForex forex
Reply   


Sell Gold
Entry: Target: Stop:

Day trading strategies on GOLD 12-09-2016 by AzaForex forex broker

hk ab 10:42 GMT September 12, 2016
yen
Reply   
final carnage.....

90? 80?

SaaR KaL 09:57 GMT September 12, 2016
GBPNZD short

Some USDCAD Shorts 1.3100 tgt 1.2860

GVI Trading Room john bland 09:53 GMT September 12, 2016
Monday Trading

Risk-Off
DAX -202
DJ -97
SP -12.5

10-yr 1.684% +1.2
fwiw U.S. equities rarely follow the lead of overseas trading.

GVI Trading Room john bland 09:09 GMT September 12, 2016
Sterling treads water as market awaits Fed rate hike clues --Reuters.com
Reply   
"Sterling traded flat against the dollar on Monday after recording its first week of losses in four, as investors awaited comments from Federal Reserve officials for further clues on whether U.S. interest rates will be hiked soon.

The dollar rallied on Friday, hitting a one-week high of $1.3239 against sterling, as bets that U.S. rates will rise this year - perhaps as soon as this month - were revived by hawkish comments from Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren..."

Sterling treads water as market awaits Fed rate hike clues --Reuters.com

HK Kwun 09:00 GMT September 12, 2016
rake hike in Sep

Sell Gold
Entry: 1329 Target: Stop: 1339

again, stupid ab claim his long 1337 is still alive, dropped more than $15 but without SL, who will believe stupid ab

GVI Trading Room john bland 09:00 GMT September 12, 2016
Monday Trading


WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:
12-SEP Monday
No major Data
13-SEP Tuesday
08:30 GB- CPI
09:00 DE- ZEW Survey
14-SEP Wednesday
08:30 GB- Employment
14:30 US- Weekly Crude
15-SEP Thursday
00:00 CN- Holiday
00:30 AU- Employment
07:30 CH- SNB Decision
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
09:00 EZ- Final HICP
11:00 GB- BOE Decision
12:30 US- PPI
12:30 US- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Current Account
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
12:30 US- Philly Fed
13:15 US- Industrial Production
16-SEP Friday
00:00 CN- Holiday
12:30 US- CPI
14:00 US- University of Michigan Survey


Trading Themes--
  • Concern that the Fed could be ready to lead central banks into a period of "policy normalization" has seen equity prices falling and bond yields rising to start the new week. Predictions about the timing and magnitude of moves to less accomodative policies is something that the Fed will have to start to manage.

  • Markets got unsettled Thursday by the non-decision decision by the ECB last Thursday. The best explanation I have heard about the ECB is that President Draghi was keeping policy on hold until he saw what the Fed was going to do on September 21. Furthermore, Fed speakers sent hawkish signals early on Friday. Later in the day Governor Tarullo sent a more dovish signal. It is long past due for the U.S. central bank to get its act together and send consistent messages to the markets or just keep quiet.

  • The economic calendar is quiet on Monday. There will ba a lot to focus on in the rest of the week, including central bank decisions by Swiss National Bank and the Bank of England. Thursday sees a slew of data from the U.S. and abroad to include the latest U.S. Retail Sales data.

  • Word Chinese forex reserves have reached their lowest level since 2012 has been raising eyebrows in recent days. Large scale intervention and management of its reserve basket can have significant impacts elsewhere.

  • As for the Fed, Fed Funds futures odds for a September 21 rate hike closed the week at one in five. The chances for one rate hike by the end of the year are only 64%, despite Chair Yellen's signal at Jackson Hole that it is time for a rate increase

  • John M. Bland, MBA
    co-founder Global-View.com


    CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off

GVI Forex Blog 08:44 GMT September 12, 2016
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off
Reply   

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off

SaaR KaL 08:30 GMT September 12, 2016
GBPNZD short

GBPAUD shorts
tgt 1.7070

SaaR KaL 08:27 GMT September 12, 2016
GBPNZD short
Reply   
Shorts here tgt 1.7940

SaaR KaL 08:07 GMT September 12, 2016
AUDUSD till Xmas

Flip/
I closed AUDUSD shorts from last friday
will short again near 0.7660 area

hk ab 07:33 GMT September 12, 2016
rake hike in Sep

The generous heavenly 'die-hard" ("or hard die") indicator just popped again......

All XAU/eur buys under 1190 suddenly revived.

And don't worry Kwun, I just felt the gold didn't "dip" deep enough and long enough for us to load. Down till now, I have only loaded up to 3rd armanda account.

The sharks were just waiting for your "signal" to.........devastate your positions.

Where's KL lately? Hopefully he is alright.

Brisbane Flip 07:06 GMT September 12, 2016
AUDUSD till Xmas

FWIW not saying you can't be right but I'd be a little careful as a bond puke might make for some pretty erratic and deep moves.

e.g. 10 Year JGBs have gone from -0.29% to Zero in the past six weeks. In a market that is meant to be owned by a central bank that is noteworthy.

10 Year JGB

SaaR KaL 06:44 GMT September 12, 2016
AUDUSD till Xmas

If you want 15 Big figures
I suggest
AUDJPY Very Very Bullish this coming 4-5 weeks
TGT 91
Entry 76 to 75

SaaR KaL 06:34 GMT September 12, 2016
AUDUSD till Xmas
Reply   
Planning on buying it after this correction to target .90
(Now bearish till <.68)

SaaR KaL 06:08 GMT September 12, 2016
The crash in S & P is very near
Reply   
2200 or near is a very dangerous level
For possibly < 1600
I suggest all should be careful

SaaR KaL 05:33 GMT September 12, 2016
This weeks trade plan

EURAUD shorts tgt 1.4650
Short EURCAD as well tgt 1.4500

HK Kwun 05:03 GMT September 12, 2016
rake hike in Sep
Reply   
Sell Gold
Entry: 1329 Target: Stop: 1339

sell now, stupid ab, where is your 1337 long, LOL

SaaR KaL 04:46 GMT September 12, 2016
This weeks trade plan
Reply   
For today short EURUSD above 1.1260..tgt 1.1160


Rest of the week
GBPCHF Longs < 1.26 TGT 1.37+

GBPUSD Longs < 1.3000 tgt 1.3800
GBPAUD Longs from < 1.7000 tgt 2.000 +
GBPNZD Longs From < 1.7700 tgt 2.1500
GBPJPY Longs from < 130.00 tgt 156 +

USDJPY Longs < 100 tgt 115 +
EURJPY Longs < 112.00 tgt 121+

EURGBP Shorts > 0.8560 tgt 0.7700

Gold Shorts > 1363 tgt < 1200

Hong Kong 03:30 GMT September 12, 2016
AceTrader Sept 12: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views USD/JPY
Reply   
12 Sep 2016 03:09GMT

USD/JPY - ...... Dlr pares initial decline in Australia on Monday following a brief rise to session high of 103.06 as hawkish comments by Fed's Rosengren just ahead of NY open led to broad-based usd buying, however, mildly dovish comments in an interview with CNBC by Fed's Tarullo triggered long liquidation in the greenback, dlr retreated to 102.54 before trading sideways.

The intra-day decline to 102.31 in Australia caused by broad-based yen buying on risk aversion was attributed to expected broad-based weakness in Asian stocks after Friday's 2% plus decline in the Dow and S&P 500, Asian equities are in the red (N225 down 1.5%, Shanghai Comp. down 1.6% n HSI down 2.5%). Although dlr has rebounded in Asia, range trading below said Fri's 103.06 top is expected to continue.

Offers are tipped at 102.70/80 and more above with stops above 103.10.
Some bids are noted at 102.40-30 with stops below 102.20.

Although no U.S. data are due out today, pay attention to speeches by Atlanta Fed President Lockhart (non-voting member) at 12:05GMT, then Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (alternate voting member) n last by not least, a final-minute scheduled speech by Fed Lael Brainard (actually all eyes n ears are on her) at 17:00GMT in Chicago.
Brainard is perceived as the most dovish member of the FOMC and market reckons her speech may be intended to send final signal to the market of the Fed's thinking of rate hike as after today, no Fed officials are allowed to make any public comments 1 week ahead of the 20-21 Sep FOMC meeting.

HK [email protected] 02:29 GMT September 12, 2016
The only way to avoid public exposure of her health situation.
Reply   

Hillary Clinton may DROP OUT of US election: New candidates 'lined up amid health scare'

TOP democrats are meeting to "consider" a replacement for Hillary Clinton after the presidential candidate fainted due to a bout of pneumonia at a 9/11 memorial service, sources have claimed.

Scheduled campaign stops may also be dropped by the presidential candidate as she modifies her scedule following doctor's orders.

The 68-year-old was rushed out of a 9/11 commemoration service today suffering from a “medical episode”, according to a law enforcement witness.

A video later emerged of the Democratic presidential nominee, showing the dramatic moment when her "knees buckled" and she nearly crumpled to the pavement while waiting for a car to collect her.

Now sources have claimed Democratic Party insiders are rushing to consider a replacement candidate in light of Mrs Clinton's poor health.

Emmy Award winning New York Journalist and MSNBC pundit David Shuster tweeted: "Clarification from dem operatives @HillaryClinton pneumonia: Expect emergency DNC meeting to CONSIDER replacement."

But a senior democrat has revealed that while the committee may "plead" with Ms Clinton for her to step down, the decision is ultimately down to her.

A top source in the party reportedly said: "We can make contingencies, argue, plead with Hillary Clinton, but DNC bylaws are clear – her nominee status is now totally up to her."

A campaign aid has also claimed that a planned trip to California is up in the air after the shock health scare.

Lisa Bardack, Clinton’s doctor said: “Secretary Clinton has been experiencing a cough related to allergies.

“On Friday, during follow up evaluation of her prolonged cough, she was diagnosed with pneumonia.

"She was put on antibiotics, and advised to rest and modify her schedule.
.................................... .....................

Hillary Clinton may DROP OUT of US election: New candidates 'lined up amid health scare'

 




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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
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A 08:55 DE- Employment
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AAEZ/CH- Holiday
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