Mtl JP 23:41 GMT September 16, 2016
To short or not US Dollar / Ruble
Reply
Liingston nh et al - I am toying with loading a short usd/rub and not just based on chart but also geo-politics of global crude production, supply and petrodollar.
tia for yey/ney
nw kw 23:18 GMT September 16, 2016
Friday Trading
jp- hears your [cond][run][dum]? is cad cot short usd but aud cot lagging gives usa and cad power over east,eur gbp are selling into weekend but aud bondes can give aud lift for audgold on last support if free market.
GVI Forex Blog 21:29 GMT September 16, 2016
Fed Rate Hike: Mission Abort!
Reply
John M. Bland, MBA
FOMC Wednesday
So here we go again. The next Fed policy decision is scheduled for Wednesday, September 21 at 18:00 GMT. Fed Chair Yellen had put this meeting into play for a possible 25bp rate hike recently at the Jackson Hole Symposium, but economic data between then and now have been disappointing and called the outcome of the meeting into question. Then a week ago, Boston Fed President Rosengren, a former dove, seemingly sent a message that this meeting is still in play. Subsequently on Monday, Fed Governor Brainard made clearly dovish comments. She was the final Fed official to comment ahead of the quiet period heading into the policy decision. Markets took her comments to be a signal that a rate hike is not on the table for this week.
Fed Rate Hike: Mission Abort!
Mtl JP 19:15 GMT September 16, 2016
Friday Trading
fwiw
sometimes price breakouts around 200dma are a powerful move
but sometimes not
at least trading around the 200dma can be a low risk trade if one is disciplined
Mtl JP 18:58 GMT September 16, 2016
Friday Trading
usdchf gv chartpoint 200dma 0.9807
currently at 0.9808 in a small pullback
GVI Trading Room john bland 18:14 GMT September 16, 2016
Friday Trading
Late Friday odds on a Fed rate hike next Wednesday are 12% from 8% late Thursday.
Bali Sja 18:06 GMT September 16, 2016
Friday Trading
New lows keep coming for cable. 95% chance we will close below 1.3070. Sayonara pound. Long live brexit ;)
Mtl JP 17:47 GMT September 16, 2016
Friday Trading
Mike 17:33 see my 14:47 GMT Sept 8
I am a usdcad dip buyer
Bali Sja 17:43 GMT September 16, 2016
Friday Trading
Lol, thanks JP. Keep those timely usd bullish posts coming. Cheers and kudos to your persistent BOD usdcad.
Mtl JP 17:39 GMT September 16, 2016
Friday Trading
Sja 17:26 good on u !
hope u r accumulating filthy riches coz all your sins are forgiven when u start making scads of fiat
Manila Tom 17:36 GMT September 16, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:
Took profit for the weekend. Out of that 1.3224 portion at 1.3041. Let 1.3331 run for new lows. Just sell rallies for cable. Cannot go wrong. Easy peasy.
manila tom 04:29 GMT September 14, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:: Reply
thanks for the heads up sja, i was short cable also from 1.3331 after the 1.36 scream, looking to add short 1.3230, before setting stop for all at around 1.3290ish, target obviously open to new lows
Mirdiff Mike 17:33 GMT September 16, 2016
Friday Trading
USDCAD
Entry: Target: Stop:
Sorry JP I did not understand. Is it going to be an upwward or downward movement.
Bali Sja 17:29 GMT September 16, 2016
Friday Trading
Looks like closebelow 1.3070 today. Should give 90% chance for 1.2850 next week
Bali Sja 17:26 GMT September 16, 2016
Friday Trading
Yes JP. Been selling it the whole week. Nice reward.
Mtl JP 17:18 GMT September 16, 2016
Friday Trading
1.3047
honestly I did not expect the gbp to be such fast pleaser when I posted JP 14:31. some of my best trades are ones I load and don't look at
this one is a warm n fuzzy pleaser sofar
Bali Sja 17:17 GMT September 16, 2016
Friday Trading
Cable i hope can close below 1.3070 today. Go usd! No more 1.36 BS
GVI Trading Room john bland 17:16 GMT September 16, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:
To my eyes, the Baker Hughes Rig Count data were about neutral.
Mtl JP 17:10 GMT September 16, 2016
Friday Trading
outlook for trading usdcad is good
or c JP 14:06 fwiw
Mtl JP 17:02 GMT September 16, 2016
Beyond the Onion
should not the vice chair be the priciest ?
dc CB 16:56 GMT September 16, 2016
Beyond the Onion
Got your tickets for tonites bash? Pricey.
Even as the Clintons are touting plans to distance themselves from their foundation and limit its fundraising if Hillary Clinton is elected president, they’re planning one last glitzy fundraising bash on Friday to belatedly celebrate Bill Clinton’s 70th birthday.
The fundraiser is being held at the Rainbow Room, a fine-dining restaurant on the 65th floor of a Manhattan skyscraper. Plans called for performances by Wynton Marsalis, Jon Bon Jovi and Barbra Streisand, according to people briefed on the planning. They said that major donors are being asked to give $250,000 to be listed as a chair for the party, $100,000 to be listed a co-chair and $50,000 to be listed as a vice-chair.
Bill’s glitzy birthday bash raises money for Clinton Foundation
Mirdiff Mike 16:56 GMT September 16, 2016
USD/CAD
Reply
What's the outlook for trading the USD/CAD pair.
Mtl JP 16:53 GMT September 16, 2016
Friday Trading
usdad 1.3218
while puppy is above Pivot 1.3175, 200dma is on target radar
Paris ib 16:00 GMT September 16, 2016
The Bond Market Bubble
Reply
"They are out of dry powder and out of tools, and therefore, the financial markets of the world are more vulnerable, maybe even more so than in 1929. You are talking about a bond bubble like never before imagined or conceived"... Stockman
Drum roll please
Mtl JP 14:31 GMT September 16, 2016
Friday Trading
1.31
gbpusd threatening to build south-ward momentum
tgrt: 1.285-ish
Berlin DG 14:05 GMT September 16, 2016
USA/Japan/Philippines VS. China
Trump promises 25 million jobs, true?
Bank of America emails their clients saying we live in a matrix ;-)
GVI Trading Room john bland 14:00 GMT September 16, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:
U of M misses
Berlin DG 13:53 GMT September 16, 2016
USA/Japan/Philippines VS. China
Reply
the US economy will get a boost from a full scale war in Asia, all CIA needs to do now is tell the Filipino president that Chinese army are drug dealers.and they will ;-)
Livingston nh 13:46 GMT September 16, 2016
Friday Trading
WTI under 43 - CAD and MXN (maybe 20? whoa) - 10 yr Treasury shaky despite STOX drop
Berlin DG 13:45 GMT September 16, 2016
Another Inside Job?
Buy Gold
Entry: Target: Stop:
Akusekijima, Fukue Island, Marado, Nakanoshima, Nakadori Island, Naru Island, Wakamatsu Island, Hisaka Island
here it comes ;-)
london red 13:45 GMT September 16, 2016
Friday Trading
euro 70 is cloud top, favoured trade 4 many lng with stop a few under 40. eurgbp rig on the move again might drive
Mtl JP 13:32 GMT September 16, 2016
FED
SFH it is easy money IF u r In the Circle
HK Kwun 13:29 GMT September 16, 2016
1337 long
Reply
Sell Gold
Entry: 1315 Target: Stop: 1325
Sxuxix ab's 1337 long, exactly lossing $30 now, this is real trade, trust or not?
Mtl JP 13:27 GMT September 16, 2016
Friday Trading
1307 poof
usually laughs best he who laughs last
LONDON SFH 13:27 GMT September 16, 2016
FED
Reply
BlackRock’s Rieder: Fed ‘Will Go in December'
Now THAT is why he gets paid the big bucks
Mtl JP 13:17 GMT September 16, 2016
Friday Trading
why I m looking at 1.1170?
because many others are probably as well
"crowd effect"
Berlin DG 13:11 GMT September 16, 2016
Friday Trading
New lows for 2016 in eur/usd are expected
Mtl JP 13:08 GMT September 16, 2016
Friday Trading
casting an eyeball on the calendar, do not think
14:00 A US prelim U of Mich
is an "A" risk (>50+ pips worth) to my account
possibly a 35 +/- 10 reaction
--
lets see that 1.1170
GVI Trading Room john bland 13:01 GMT September 16, 2016
Friday Trading
JP - I agree.
Mtl JP 12:56 GMT September 16, 2016
Friday Trading
if eurdlr breaks 1.1170 things could go fast
Bali Sja 12:55 GMT September 16, 2016
Stop: 1307 coming soon:(
Worry that not. Better worry about cable 1.36xx not coming.
Mtl JP 12:40 GMT September 16, 2016
Friday Trading
usd had the bid, still seems to have the bid
200 day 1.1143
possible target
--
dlrcad boogies on uP
Berlin DG 12:34 GMT September 16, 2016
Friday Trading
Buy Gold
Entry: Target: 1345 Stop: 1307
ha ha ha ;-)
london red 12:33 GMT September 16, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:
real wkly earnings -0.4% frm a revised lower +0.4% (frm +0.6%)
GVI Trading Room john bland 12:33 GMT September 16, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:
CPI a touch hotter than expected. Should not impact Fed
Mtl JP 12:33 GMT September 16, 2016
Friday Trading
at just 25 pips reaction sofar players not honoring A-risk (in my book 50+ pips worth)
Mtl JP 12:27 GMT September 16, 2016
Friday Trading
keeping robot to Buy usd bias on dips
Berlin DG 12:27 GMT September 16, 2016
Friday Trading
buy buy buy, everything to go UP UP UP today. the iPhone 7 effect
Mtl JP 12:25 GMT September 16, 2016
Friday Trading
ahead of A-risk to my acount at bottom of hour
20 day 1.1230
100 day 1.1202
Mtl JP 12:23 GMT September 16, 2016
Friday Trading
what is there not to like about making existential threats to a systemic creature - unless either the threat is made by "crazies" or the puppy is not systemically TBTF
LONDON SFH 12:20 GMT September 16, 2016
Friday Trading
JP
The US have just fined DB almost as much as their entire market cap.....even if they get it reduced their business is on its knees and they still have enough poor assets to wipe out the rest....Maybe just go an buy some gold....
Mtl JP 12:16 GMT September 16, 2016
Friday Trading
SHF Gold, at 1314, is still not showing that
LONDON SFH 12:14 GMT September 16, 2016
Friday Trading
I kind of think the mkt is pretty much telling him that already
Mtl JP 12:11 GMT September 16, 2016
Friday Trading
would be a fine time for John Cryan to make a statement to the effect that "DB is going tits up" - shortly after NY close
Mtl JP 12:06 GMT September 16, 2016
Friday Trading
1.3202
usdcad rewards BoD players
GVI Trading Room john bland 11:53 GMT September 16, 2016
Friday Trading
Equities lower
DAX -143
DJ -77
SP -9
10-yr 1.663% -4.0bp
Paris ib 11:12 GMT September 16, 2016
Another Inside Job?
SFH I wouldn't advise taking a short term bet on this. Shifts of this kind take a long while. It can take decades.
LONDON SFH 11:03 GMT September 16, 2016
Another Inside Job?
okay ib -was only taking a poke at Oliver Stone
Greenspan always worries about things more than he should...his irrational exuberance was so badly timed even though it was listened to at the time....then he continued to feed the credit boom til it exploded in his successor's face. I see the weakness of the US and how they are but betting against the USD as a reserve currency seems a long shot right now
Paris ib 10:54 GMT September 16, 2016
Another Inside Job?
Come on SFH it's not the movie which is going to determine whether the USD holds on to its international reserve currency status. That would be silly. It's more the context: Presidential election for crazies, foreign policy for deviants, more craziness out of the FED and then the narrative is not holding. People don't even believe the 9 11 narrative any more. It's the whole picture. I have nothing personally against crazies I just don't think you should let them drive the bush.
At this point you may as well hold your reserves with North Korea. :-)
Greenspan worries about the crazies
GVI Trading Room john bland 10:51 GMT September 16, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:
This excellent item pretty much summarizes the current thinking about the BOJ next Wednesday. It seems like Tokyo sometimes floats a number of trial balloons before key meetings. BOJ decision comes ahead of the Fed that day.
GVI Trading Room 10:47 GMT September 16, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:
Japan Abe advisor Honda:
Deeper negative rates could pull down inflation expectations
- BOJ must not shrink QE
- Deeper negative rates would hit bank shares, drag down Tokyo stock markets
- BOJ could steepen yield curve by buying more short-, mid-term debt
- BOJ must not be perceived as preparing to taper QE
- Foreign bond purchases by BOJ an option
- Govt should compile new extra budget in January if needed
- Source TradeTheNews.com
hk gb 10:29 GMT September 16, 2016
Friday Trading
jpy buying, gbpjpy selling
LONDON SFH 10:14 GMT September 16, 2016
Friday Trading
US figs are not mkt movers for me right now since the Fed are on hold this time whatever comes out....trade the flow and go with it...Friday moves always get exaggerated.,.
GVI Trading Room john bland 10:05 GMT September 16, 2016
Friday Trading
Looks like a return to normality in equity-bond relationship at this hour.
U.S. CPI is worth watching on the NY open.
GVI Trading Room john bland 09:59 GMT September 16, 2016
Friday Trading
Equities mild risk off
DAX -32
DJ -35
SP -5
U.S. 10-yr Thu price pressures abate for now.
1.674% -2.9 bp
LONDON SFH 09:40 GMT September 16, 2016
Olllie's View
Reply
I think Deutsche Bank's chairman would have some sympathy with you there. Perhaps that $14bln is supposed to help balance what Ireland (or the EU) want form Apple?
I do wonder why it is the EU doesn't demand recompense for all those EU institutions such as IKB who were "mis-sold" products by the likes of GS etc...
LONDON SFH 09:34 GMT September 16, 2016
Another Inside Job?
Hi again....if it's interesting or not I can hardly think intelligent people tasked with investment decisions would base their views on anything Oliver Stone has to say or do...the man who said " I will come out with my interpretation. If I'm wrong, fine."
There are so many fiat currencies it seems a tough choice to find one worth buying on the basis of it being credible any more...
Paris ib 09:32 GMT September 16, 2016
Another Inside Job?
It's such a massive con when you think about. Everyone is lending this massive amount of money to the U.S. - to use for their own purposes - only it's not seen that way. It's seen as keeping your reserves safe. That that narrative holds up after the confiscation of assets which we have seen over and over... is just mind blowing.
They took sanctions off Iran recently but then they had this little problem with having to give back their money (presumably with interest) so how'd they get out of that? Easy
Blame Iran for 9 11
Paris ib 09:26 GMT September 16, 2016
Another Inside Job?
SFH.... I'm sure he wants to publicise his movie. That's part of his job. Interesting choice for a movie though.
What interesting to me is that 'the narrative' is crumbling and the international reserve currency status rests on one thing and one thing only: the narrative, or if you like trust, confidence... blah, blah blah.
If the narrative crumbles, as it seems to be, what happens to the U.S. bond market and the USD?
Snowden
LONDON SFH 08:42 GMT September 16, 2016
Another Inside Job?
Morning ib
I wonder if his comments are more motivated by desire to publicise his own movie than truth....He does have such a reputation for being so historically accurate with his films too.....
GVI Trading Room john bland 08:08 GMT September 16, 2016
Friday Trading
WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:
16-SEP Friday
00:00 CN- Holiday
12:30 US- CPI
14:00 US- University of Michigan Survey
19-Aug MON
00:00 CN- Holiday
14:00 US- NAHB
20-Aug TUE
12:30 US-Housing Starts/Permits
21-Aug WED
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
14:30 US- EIA Crude
18:00 US- Fed Decision
22-Aug THU
12:30 US- Jobless Claims
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
21:00 NZ- RBNZ Decision
23-Aug FRI
All Day- flash PMIs
12:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
Trading Themes--
- The U.S. open today sees the August CPI report. This is one of the key inflation metrics of the Fed. Prices are seen rising by a modest 0.10% in the month. Later the preliminary University od Michigan sentment survey for September is due.
- Thursday saw a slew of U.S. data. In general, with the exception of the Philly Fed Survey, the data were lacklustre and strengthened the case for no Fed rate hike next week. The Fed Funds futures odds on a rate hike next Wednesday are a scant 8%.
- Fed policy is still seen as likely on hold next week. Gov Brainard was dovish in her comments on Monday, and She was the final Fed official to comment ahead of the quiet period heading into the Fed policy decision next Wednesday.
- Concern that the Fed will soon be leading global central banks into a period of "policy normalization" has seen volatile equity prices and rising bond yields.
John M. Bland, MBA
co-founder Global-View.com
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Risk
Hk [email protected] 08:00 GMT September 16, 2016
Open for business: UK 'ready to form trade deals outside EU BEFORE triggering Article 50'
Reply
BRITAIN will hold trade talks with nations outside of the European Union at the same time as negotiating its way out of the Brussels bloc, a British ambassador in the EU has revealed.
Ivan Rogers has reportedly issued a warning to his fellow EU ambassadors that Britain will be opening trade negotiations while releasing itself from the crumbling union as the UK readies itself for Brexit life.
During a meeting this week, Rogers told diplomats the trade department, spearheaded by Liam Fox, has already begun talks with numerous countries willing to strike a deal with Britain.
But other EU diplomats warned Rogers the UK would be in breach of EU law if it were to form trade deals with other countries while it remained in the bloc.
Another diplomat told Politico: “He did not clearly say that they [the Brits] would conduct trade negotiations during the exit negotiations.
Pre-talks, however, will no doubt be held between UK and third countries, and some are already under way.”
It comes as senior politicians called for Article 50 to be triggered as soon as possible.
nw kw 06:01 GMT September 16, 2016
Oil
see east is on move for gbp and wti for cad and aud twigs falling from bonds gold can, with ngas top brake out needs to vent for oil moves in and out ngas this year
nw kw 05:53 GMT September 16, 2016
Oil
usa shorts on cad banks left from usa fed so oil not underfunded market longing junk bonds?
SaaR KaL 05:32 GMT September 16, 2016
Oil
I am buying with dips into 42.9
tgt 46
nw kw 05:19 GMT September 16, 2016
Oil
oil stops are at top?
dc CB 02:23 GMT September 16, 2016
Friday Trading
No INTENT can be proved.
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